Conflict Weekly

Photo Source: Karen Minasyan, AFP
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

CWA # 951, 10 May 2023
Conflict Weekly
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Stalemate

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #175, 10 May 2023, Vol.4, No.19
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI and India Office of the KAS

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

Nagorna-Karabakh: The Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations in the US fail to reach a consensus 

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

In the news
On 3 May, Armenia and Azerbaijan concluded the four-day US-sponsored peace talks in Washington. The foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan took part in the negotiations that were mediated by the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken. A joint press release followed by the meeting stated: "Ministers and their teams have made progress in mutual understanding on some articles of the draft bilateral agreement 'On peace and the establishment of interstate relations,' while positions on some key issues still diverge."

On 3 May, Blinken stated that Armenia and Azerbaijan have made "tangible progress" during the talks and urged the two ministers to return to their capitals "to share with their governments the perspective that, with additional goodwill, flexibility, and compromise, an agreement is within reach." He also claimed that a deal could be "within sight, within reach" and commended Armenia and Azerbaijan for coming together to help reach a consensus. He also expressed Washington's willingness to assist the two countries in reaching a peace agreement.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated that direct negotiation between the two countries was the best way to achieve a peace agreement. He said: "I believe that direct negotiations between the two countries will be more useful and necessary. I think we should continue to move in this direction if, of course, Armenia is also ready for this." Conversely, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian stated that he still sees a "huge difference" between the wording of a draft peace agreement for Armenia and Azerbaijan despite the claims of progress at the talks. He also claimed that the main differences were not limited to Nagorno-Karabakh but also territorial and security guarantees. 

Following the talks, the Kremlin responded, claiming that any effort to resolve the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is welcome, however, reiterating that the basis of any long-term solution should be a Russian-brokered peace agreement signed in 2020.

Issues at large
First, the elusive agreement despite multiple rounds of negotiations. Armenia and Azerbaijan have held several rounds of negotiations in the recent past. The two countries have initiated these talks at a bilateral level and also through other international actors. Previously, in October 2022, the two sides agreed to a civilian EU mission alongside their common border. Later in February 2023, the leaders of the two countries revealed that some progress had been made toward a peace agreement. Despite these attempts, the two sides are yet to reach a peace agreement that would settle the issues regarding Nagorno-Karabakh, the demarcation of borders, and the return of prisoners. Additionally, these negotiations have failed to curb the sporadic skirmishes along the borders. 

Second, the increasing role of the US. The US has taken a proactive role in resolving the dispute and achieving lasting peace in the South Caucasus. Blinken has been at the forefront of these diplomatic engagements that have involved meetings and telephonic conversations with the two leaders. Blinken met with the two leaders during the trilateral talks in Munich in February and has also initiated meetings with several other ministers in the recent past. Additionally, several American diplomats engaged in shuttle diplomacy between Baku and Yerevan in late April 2023. However, the current US engagement comes as Russia chose to keep a measured role in the region, despite the ongoing Ukraine war.

Third, the dwindling role of Russia. While Russia has been preoccupied with the ongoing Ukraine war, its role in the region has been minimal. Russia has maintained that its peacekeeping forces will continue to remain in the region. Moscow has also attempted to initiate negotiations when Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted the leaders in Sochi in 2022. However, Russia's unwillingness to address the concerns of Armenia, its ally, has caused strains in the relations. This coupled with Azerbaijan stepping up in the region, complicates the matter.  

In perspective
First, the framework for a peace agreement. Armenia and Azerbaijan have not been able to reach a consensus on each other's concerns despite the numerous rounds of negotiations. These issues are not limited to the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh but to several other enclaves, exclaves, transport routes, and border demarcations. A peace agreement would have to include a solution to all these concerns for which both sides would need continued cooperation and negotiations. 

Second, the prospect of a new mediator. A vacuum has been created with Russia being preoccupied with the Ukraine war. This space would push Armenia and Azerbaijan to look to the West for an alternative to Russian mediation. The US and the EU have shown interest in resolving the dispute in the region. However, as of now the US nor the EU has labelled efforts taken in the region. Whether they chose to play a larger role of a mediator in the region remains to be seen. 

Third, Russia's continued role. Although preoccupied with the Ukraine war, Russia would not step back from the region. Its role as a mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan is likely to be reduced because of their larger interest. However, a peace negotiation without Russia is highly unlikely. 

SPECIAL COMMENTARY

Manipur Ethnic Riots:
Clash of Perceptions of Marginalization and Victimhood

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Background 
Landlocked Manipur’s past and present have been marked by enormous complexities. Much of it is rooted in the state’s peculiar geography and demography. The divide between the hills and the valley in Manipur sustains a perpetual acrimony between the State’s majority Meitei community, who inhabit the Imphal and Jiribam valleys, and the tribes, who live in the hill districts of Senapati, Ukhrul, Kangpokpi, Tamenglong, Churachandpur, Chandel, and Tengnoupal. In recent times, especially since 2015, this has been further accentuated by the state government’s alleged promotion of majoritarian Meitei interests, thereby heightening tribal insecurities. In such a scenario, the ethnic riots that engulfed the state between 3 and 8 May 2023, killing 62 people, injuring 230 more, and the displacement of 35000 was only a matter of time. 

Manipur is home to 33 different tribes of principally two ethnicities- Kuki-Zomi and Naga, and the majority Meiteis. Given their contrasting worldviews, claims over resources, and perceptions of marginalization, amid the constantly evolving socio-economic realities, the State remains an administrative nightmare. Manipur also has a rather long history of insurgency, ethnic riots, and inter and intra-tribal rivalry; these factors make the State extremely violence-prone. The Meitei community suffers from the frustration of being confined to the valley areas, which form about 10 percent of the state’s territory of 22327 square kilometres, and barred from acquiring land in the hills. On the other hand, the tribes feel that they remain backward and marginalized, as the state government remains primarily Meitei dominated and caters to their interests of the majority community. Meiteis feel that the limited area in the valley is being further pressured by illegal migration of the Myanmarese, Bangladeshis, and ‘outsiders’ from other Indian states. Meiteis accounts for around 53 percent of the total state population estimated to be anywhere between 32 to 35 lakhs. Tribals, on the other hand, are more than 40 percent of the population. Meiteis are divided into three prominent categories. A majority follow Hinduism, while more than 8 percent are Muslims (locally known as Pangals) and three per cent belong to the Scheduled Class (SC) category. Tribals such as the Kuki and Nagas are predominantly Christian. 

On 27 March, one of the many faultlines that divide the people of the state came out to the open. A judge of the Manipur High Court heading a single bench, after hearing the plea filed by eight petitioners including the secretary of an organization named, the ‘Meetei (Meitei) Tribe Union’ directed the Manipur State government to submit recommendations to the union government for the inclusion of Meitei in the Scheduled Tribe (ST) list. Back in May 2013, the union ministry of tribal affairs had asked the State govt to submit a formal recommendation along with the latest socio-economic survey and ethnographic report. However, the Manipur government, perhaps considering the sensitivity of the issues, had failed to do so. The high court also criticised the procrastination. The court’s ruling opened up Pandora’s box and is one of the factors responsible for the ethnic clashes.  

Principal Actors
Scheduled Tribe Demand Committee Manipur (STDCM): 
The Imphal-based STDCM was formed sometime in 2012 by a few individuals around the demand for the inclusion of the Meitei/Meetei community in the ST list. A 1956 constitutional order notified 29 STs in Manipur, leaving the Meiteis out of the list. In 1991, they were designated as an ‘Other Backward Class’ (OBC). The STDCM feels that although most Meiteis are Hindus, they still follow the old tribal system. 

The STDCM claims that till 1935, the Meiteis were entered in the census of India as ST. In 1949-50, when the Constitution was drafted, this was changed. The STDCM claims that former Assam Chief Minister Gopinath Bordoloi and a politician from Meghalaya, JJ Mohan Nichols Roy recommended the ending of ST status for the Meiteis after consulting only ‘three people’, which included two Brahmins and a Sanskritised Meitei. 

All Tribal Students’ Union of Manipur (ATSUM) and others: 
Among several organisations representing tribal interests in the State, the ATSUM is probably the most vocal and prominent, with a presence in all the hill districts of the State. It claims to represent Manipur’s 33 tribes. It is against the Meiteis being granted the ST status, as it will ‘defeat the very purpose of protecting the tribal people through the reservation’. It considers the demand illegitimate and a ‘direct threat to the existence of the already marginalised, suppressed, and minority tribals of Manipur’. ATSUM organized a ‘solidarity rally’ on 3 May in all the hill districts of the state, under the theme, ‘Come now let’s reason together’. This received support from several other tribal organisations such as the Sadar Hills Tribals Union on Land and Forest (SHITULF), Kuki Inpi Manipur, Tribal Churches Leaders Forum (TCLF), Anal Lenruwl Tangpi/Anal Naga Students' Union (ALT) and Churachandpur District Private Schools & Colleges Association (CDPSCA), the Indigenous Tribal Leaders Forum (ITLF), the Joint Coordination Committee on Tribal Rights, Manipur (JCCOTR-M).

Thousands turned up for the rally. At Churachandpur, the second largest town in the State, people defied prohibitory orders and gathered at the public ground and took out a rally to show their support to ATSUM, defying the existing prohibitory orders which had been clamped for an indefinite period in the town since 27 April following the violence to protest against the drive to evict villagers from reserve forest areas. A venue where Chief Minister N Biren Singh was scheduled to address a programme had been vandalised, following which additional security forces were rushed to the town from other parts of Manipur. The otherwise peaceful rally turned violent after conflicting incidents. The violence spread into the other hill districts and the Imphal and Jiribam valleys, with tribal Kuki protesters targeting the Meiteis and the latter targeting the Kukis. Temples, churches, residences, and business establishments of both communities were destroyed. 

The State Government: 
The State government headed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), headed by N Biren Singh, which won 32 seats of the total 60 in the 2022 state Legislative Assembly elections, has lost much of its credibility in the eyes of the tribes. Of the 60 MLAs, 40 are Meiteis. While the State government’s position on the demand ST status is not known, the tribals have interpreted a series of steps initiated by the government since 2015 as furthering the Meitei interests and curtailing the land rights of the tribals. Worsening the perceptions of the tribals were statements of a number of Meitei lawmakers of the valley areas who openly endorsed the ST status demand for the Meiteis.  These include National People’s Party (NPP) MLA Khuraijam Loken who asserted that the ST tag for the Meitei/Meetei needs to be fulfilled before ‘the arrival of the train in Imphal’. The Chief Minister himself has been accused by a BJP MLA Paolienlal Haokip of being ‘anti-Kuki’ and ‘prejudiced’, having called them ‘foreigners’ and ‘illegal migrants’. 

Social media warriors/ Opinion makers: 
Prior to the riots and amid the violence, civil society groups, both in the hills and valley, became more vocal and aggressive in pushing their  adicalized communal agenda, contributing to the scale of the conflict. Social media relayed the hardened and often inimical positions live, much before the official clampdown on the internet. In addition to the state and regional media, ill-informed national TV channels branded the Kukis as “illegal immigrants” and “encroachers” and portrayed the violence as Hindu versus Christian. Such media debates aroused communal passions. All this, along with the tweets, Facebook posts, and WhatsApp forwards turned into an institutional ecosystem of hatred that activated and sustained riots.  

Issues at play
Revivalism: 
The demand for ST status for the Meiteis needs to be seen in the context of a thriving, although a small attempt at revivalism among the Meiteis, who hark back to their Mongoloid, pre-Hindu past rooted in the ‘Sanamahi’ culture and rejection of the ‘cultural hegemony’ and ‘disinformation of history’. These are implicit in the attempts to use the old name of ‘Kangleipak’ for Manipur, to revive old festivals, the old calendar, and the old script. This romantic ‘search for roots’, however, does not have many takers, especially among many Meiteis who feel that their achievement as a general category people, in the field of sports, politics, and military, underline their evolution as an influential political as well as economic class. Not surprisingly, a pro-ST status movement ahead of the state legislative assembly elections in 2022 had found no place in the manifestos of either the national or the regional parties. The demand was also rejected by people like Rajkumar Meghen, former chief of the insurgent outfit, the United National Liberation Front (UNLF), who feel the ST status would undo the rich martial history of the community. 

The battle over land resources:  
The fact that Meiteis are barred from buying land in the hills, whereas the ‘open to buying’- land resources in the valley is becoming more and more scarce in the Imphal and Jiribam valleys seems to be a major issue. As mentioned before, the STDCM’s demand has only partial support among the Meiteis. Alternately, the majority of Meiteis feel that tweaking the Manipur Land Revenue and Land Reforms Act, 1961 (MLR&LR Act), enabling Meiteis to purchase land in the hills can provide a way out. However, past attempts to do so by the state government have elicited a violent response from the tribals and it certainly provides no solution. In 2015, the state government’s introduction of a controversial Bill to amend the MLR&LR Act to the hill areas led to the eruption of violence in the Kuki areas leading to the death of nine tribal protestors and a protest lasting over 632 days. Without taking inputs from the district councils and the Hill Areas Committee (HAC), large swathes of land in Kuki-Zomi-Hmar inhabited areas in the hill areas were declared as Reserved Forest (RF), Protected Forest (PF), Wildlife Sanctuary (WS), and Wetlands. This was followed by eviction drives against Kuki illegal encroachers. This has resulted in agitations by the Kukis, the most recent being on 10 March. Further, Kukis allege that three churches in Imphal were razed to the ground after being termed illegal structures. 

Myanmarese illegal migrants and poppy cultivation:  
The Chief Minister has accused the Kukis of sheltering Myanmarese nationals who have allegedly entered the state since the February 2021 military coup. State’s intelligence department as well as the right wing organisations allege that Myanmarese nationals as well as the Kuki militants, have participated in the agitations and the violence. The state government has also alleged that the hill areas are being used for poppy cultivation by the Kukis. The latter reject all these allegations.  While verification of these charges remains a challenge, it remains a fact that Manipur’s government’s March 2023 decision to rescind the truce with the Kuki National Army (KNA) and the Zomi Revolutionary Army (ZRA) has not gone down well with the Kukis. Kukis allege that the poppy is grown in the Naga areas, which is difficult to verify, given the land in the tribal areas is owned by village chiefs and not demarcated. Although in the last five years (2016 to 2021), the extent of land used to grow poppy has increased more than three times  from 1853 to 6742.8 acres. Of this, only 3200 acres of poppy cultivation were destroyed in 2022. No one has ever been arrested or prosecuted for growing poppy. In addition, Manipur’s drug problem is principally sourced from the neighbouring Golden Triangle region comprising Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand.       

Future Trajectory
Violence has subsided in Manipur. However, there is no possibility of immediate closure to the wide-ranging issues that fueled the riots. Moreover, the violence has further widened the fissures between the Meiteis and the Kukis. Since the state government and the police force are being seen as biased towards the Meiteis, their ability to establish peace and oversee its management by initiating a process of dialogue between the two communities is limited. Manipur needs a neutral and impartial intervention, which is lacking at the moment. Thus, all that is achievable currently through the deployment of central security forces is negative peace, i.e. absence of any large-scale violence. Positive peace that requires accommodation of genuine aspirations by using constitutional provisions could therefore remain a casualty in the coming months.  

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Rishika Yadav, Nithyashree RB, Subiksha S, Taffy Tonia A, Immaculine Joy Paul, Jerry Franklin, Varsha K and Sreeja JS
 
East and Southeast Asia
China: Canadian diplomat expelled in retaliation 
On 10 May, the BBC reported on Beijing expelling Canada's consul in Shanghai in response to Ottawa's expulsion of a Chinese diplomat accused of trying to intimidate a Canadian MP. There were allegations of Chinese political interference in Canada, including targeting an opposition lawmaker and his family. Diplomatic relations between the two countries remain strained since the detention of Huawei Executive Meng Wanzhou in 2018 and Beijing's subsequent arrest of two Canadians on spying charges. 

Japan and South Korea: Real-time sharing of North Korean missile data 
On 9 May, the Strait Times reported on a potential agreement between Japan and South Korea to link their radars via a US system to share real-time information on North Korea's ballistic missiles. The defence ministers of Japan, South Korea, and the US are expected to reach this agreement on the sidelines of an ASEAN defence summit to be held in Singapore in June 2023. Defence ministers from Japan and South Korea are also likely to meet on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue to be held in Singapore in June 2023. Japan and South Korea are currently linked to the US radar system but not to each other. The three countries agreed in November 2020 to speed up sharing of information as North Korea launched ballistic missiles at an unprecedented pace.

China: Foreign ministry denies accusations of maritime militia disrupting the ASEAN-India naval exercise 
On 8 May, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied allegations of its maritime militia intentionally entering the South China Sea, where India and ASEAN countries, including Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Indonesia, and Brunei, participated in a maritime exercise. Meanwhile, the Indian authorities confirmed the presence of at least five Chinese militia boats followed by a Chinese research vessel which interrupted the exercise and claimed that their drill pattern was broken. The two-day sea phase, hosted by the Indian and Singaporean navies, marks the first ASEAN-India Maritime Exercise. 

Myanmar: Crisis worsens as military carries out attacks 
On 6 May, in Myinmu township, at least 530 houses were set on fire, displacing many residents in the Sagaing region. Troops raided Htoke Taw village, killing one person and injuring two others. The troops shelled the village as locals were trying to extinguish the flames. The military regime has imposed strict restrictions on foreigners travelling to specific towns in Myanmar as criminal gangs based in China and Thailand have swamped the country's border towns. Despite international pressure, the junta continues violent attacks against civilians and resistance groups.  

South Asia
India: Five soldiers killed in J&K 
On 5 April, five soldiers were killed in an explosion during a battle with militants in the Rajouri-Poonch area of the Jammu division in J&K. The incident happened when security personnel were searching for the attackers who ambushed and killed five soldiers on 20 April. The People's Anti-Fascist Front (PAFF) had previously claimed responsibility. 

Pakistan: Trilateral meeting in Islamabad with China and Afghanistan
On 7 May, China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan agreed to strengthen trilateral cooperation on security and counterterrorism during a meeting of foreign ministers in Islamabad. The Taliban called for Chinese investments in return for its mineral reserves, including copper and lithium. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs expressed its interest in investing in Afghanistan. Additionally, the three countries pledged to strengthen counterterrorism cooperation. China and Pakistan supported the Taliban-led Afghan government to enhance capacity building to deal with "terrorist" actors.

Pakistan: Imran Khan's arrest sparks protests
On 9 May, Pakistan's former Prime Minister Imran Khan was arrested in a corruption case. His arrest followed months of political crisis and came hours after the country's powerful military rebuked him for alleging a senior officer of involvement in a plot to kill him. The arrest sparked protests across several cities in the country, including Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore and Peshawar. Police used water cannons and tear gas to disperse protesters. 

Central Asia, The Middle East, and Africa 
Yemen: Clashes between government forces and Houthi rebels
On 6 May, Arab News reported on the clashes between Yemen's government forces and Houthi rebels resulting in casualties on both sides. Despite the UN involvement, the Houthi rebels continue to attack civilians. Meanwhile, Sami Hemaid, the Yemeni head of the Saudi-funded Masam demining program's teams in Hodeidah, reported that Houthis have mined extensively in the western province of Hodeidah. The attack was the latest in a series of attacks in Taiz, which could further hinder the ongoing international attempts to resolve the conflict.

Israel: Air strikes on Gaza and retaliation
On 10 May, Al Jazeera reported on Israeli air strikes on Gaza for the second consecutive day. The strikes targeted multiple spots of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) movement, killing at least six Palestinians. Gaza responded to the attack by rocket fire, killing at least 15 people. Israeli forces claimed the attack was to assassinate three PIJ commanders. 

Yemen: Floods cause multiple fatalities
On 9 May, Yemen National Meteorological Centre (YNMC) warned of severe rainfall and flooding across central and northern highlands. The Arab News reported that 24 people died in the floods. Local media outlets reported multiple casualties and significant property damages. Previously, the agrometeorological early warning bulletin of the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) had cautioned about threats to mountainous and coastal areas. 

Sudan: 10,000 flee to neighbouring Central African Republic amidst clashes
On 7 May, UN officials said that around 9,700 people from Sudan had moved to the Central African Republic owing to the conflict between the Rapid Support Force (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). According to the officials, the numbers are expected to increase, and more than half the population needs humanitarian assistance and protection. Meanwhile, on 5 May, the US President, Joe Biden, imposed sanctions against Sudan, calling the savagery a tragedy and a betrayal of its people. Biden stated that the brutality was an "unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the US."

Sudan: 16 dead in ethnic clashes followed by imposition of curfew
On 9 May, Africanews quoted Sudan's Suna news agency's report on the death of at least 16 people in the ethnic clashes that broke out on 8 May between the two groups, Hausa and Nuba. The Governor declared a curfew in the White Nile state. The clashes are not related to the ongoing power tussle; rather a regular brawl between farmers and herders over access to water and land. The Hausa group claimed they were discriminated against based on an ancestral law prohibiting them from owning lands. Access to land is a crucial issue as agriculture and livestock account for 43 per cent of jobs and 30 per cent of GDP. With less security apparatus followed by the coup in 2021, there are recurring instances of inter-ethnic and inter-tribal conflicts in the country.

Rwanda: Floods and landslides kill more than 130 people
On 4 May, BBC reported that at least 130 people died in heavy floods and landslides in Rwanda's northern and western provinces. The report quoted Rwanda's public broadcaster, RBA, which stated that the casualties are expected to rise owing to the intensity of the rising flood waters. The neighbouring Uganda also had casualties followed by landslides. The Rwandan government has started relief measures, including aiding the burial of the dead and providing supplies to devastated victims. Rwandan weather authorities attributed climate change to the unusual rains and flooding in recent years. According to the authorities, the downpour will likely extend throughout the month. 

Nigeria: 25 people kidnapped from church in north-west part of the country
On 9 May, the Bege Baptist church in Chikun, located in north-west Nigeria's Kaduna state, was attacked by gunmen and at least 25 members were abducted. According to an official from the Christian Association of Nigeria, at least 40 people were kidnapped, among which 15 managed to escape. Although mass kidnappings by criminal gangs have been found to be rampant in the last two years, these events are not connected to the Islamist militants who operate actively in parts of northern Nigeria. 

Democratic Republic of Congo: Devastating flood affects dozens
On 9 May, Africanews reported the ongoing search for countless people missing in the floods caused by heavy downpours in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The villages are destroyed, and bodies are being retrieved. A Congolese government spokesperson, Patrick Muyaya, said that the latest death toll in the affected villages had reached 401. Greenpeace Africa, an environment protection organization, emphasized on "the necessity for the authorities to work on a national development plan focusing strongly on the risk of flooding in certain areas of the country." On 6 May, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres noted the grave implications of climate change and its impact on countries with little contribution to global warming. 

Europe and the Americas
Germany: Federal government debates the demand for the funding refugees
On 9 May, Deutsche Welle reported a debate in Germany between the federal and state governments on increasing the financial support for asylum seekers and refugees. Germany reported an increase in the influx of asylum seekers by 78 per cent as the war in Ukraine persists. Finance Minister Christian Linder calculated that the federal government contributed EUR 29.84 billion in 2022, and EUR 26.65 billion has been earmarked for this year. It is also paying EUR five billion in social benefits for people who have fled from other countries. Nearly 16 states demanded that the federal government should increase its contributions as the number of refugees increases. The federal government does not appear to be keen on increasing funds; rather, it wants the state governments to take the initiative, as they receive huge shares of federal tax, and some of the states have excess funds. Further, the government is planning to reduce the number of incoming refugees. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has suggested pushing refugees back to Moldova and Georgia by declaring them safe for refugees.

Russia: New wave of drones and missiles strikes against Ukraine 
On 8 May, Russia launched a fresh wave of 60 drones along with missile strikes. It marked the fourth attack in eight days on Kyiv. It comes just before Russia celebrates its Victory Day, a major public holiday commemorating the defeat of Nazi Germany in 1945. The latest Russian raids lasted more than four hours and witnessed Iranian-made Shahed drones swarm across the country. Kyiv's Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko stated that nearly 36 drones were destroyed. In the Black Sea port city of Odessa, a warehouse with humanitarian aid was destroyed by missile attacks. 

Russia: Putin addresses Russian troops on the Victory Day 
On 9 May, Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the Russian troops fighting in Ukraine during the Victory Day parade. The parade had 3,000 soldiers and less military hardware. He justified the invasion of Ukraine and accused "Western Globalist Elites" of provoking conflicts. Putin said Russia's future rests on soldiers fighting in Ukraine, calling it a "real war" unleashed against Russia by the West. 

Canada: Wildfires threatens the livelihood 
On 7 May, National Public Radio (NPR) reported that the fire and rescue service battled wildfires in Edmonton, Alberta. A state of emergency was declared after more than 110 wildfires forced 24,000 people to leave the province. In neighbouring northeastern British Columbia, two wildfires that have been intensively spreading, forced multiple residents to evacuate the place. The chairman of the Peace River Regional District, Leonard Hiebert, warned that the high winds would increase the blaze and urged people to evacuate the area immediately. A third wildfire in British Columbia in the Teare Creek region forced residents near the village of McBride to evacuate the place. 

The US: Migration chaos following the end of Title 42
On 8 May, USNews reported that the recent rise of migrants at the US-Mexico border in Brownsville, Texas, highlights immigration issues as the US prepares to discontinue Title 42 policy. US Customs and Border Protection officials have been facilitating the expulsion of 30,000 migrants, mainly from Venezuela, in the past few weeks. In a visit to southern Texas, Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said: "We've been preparing for quite some time and we are ready. What we are expecting is indeed a surge. And what we are doing is planning for different levels of a surge; The situation at the border is extremely challenging." The administration of US President Joe Biden has also been increasing Immigration and Customs Enforcement flights to expel people from the country. In response, the federal government has given funds to communities to help them deal with the increase in migrants. 

US: The looming threat of default
On 9 May, the Hill reported that the US economy is heading towards a looming threat of default, as the country passed its borrowing limit earlier this year. The Treasury Department has now stated that it could run out of ways to stave off a default by 1 June and that the lawmakers and the White House are struggling to decide how to lift the USD 31.4 trillion debt ceiling and skirt default. Republicans want to hike the debt limit and implement spending cuts, while the White House has pushed for a "clean" increase. One recommended solution is to use a clause in the 14th Amendment of the US Constitution which some legal scholars believe could be interpreted as unconstitutional. This would allow President Joe Biden to direct the Treasury to continue issuing debts to pay the US's bills without an increase or suspension of the ceiling. However, the move would likely spark a legal challenge. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that using the 14th Amendment would trigger a "constitutional crisis" and stressed that the Congress should take action before such a move.

About the authors
Dr Bibhu Prasad Routray is Director of Mantraya, Goa. He was formerly a Deputy Director at the National Security Council Secretariat, Government of India. Abigail Miriam Fernandez is an Independent Scholar based in Bangalore. Rishika Yadav is a Research Intern at NIAS. Subiksha S, Taffy Tonia A and Nithyashree RB are Postgraduate Scholars at the Stella Maris College, Chennai. Sreeja JS, Varsha K, Immaculate Joy Paul and Jerry Franklin are Postgraduate Scholars at the Madras Christian College.

Print Bookmark

PREVIOUS COMMENTS

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1189

Hoimi Mukherjee | Hoimi Mukherjee is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science in Bankura Zilla Saradamani Mahila Mahavidyapith.

Chile in 2023: Crises of Constitutionality
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1187

Aprajita Kashyap | Aprajita Kashyap is a faculty of Latin American Studies, School of International Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi.

Haiti in 2023: The Humanitarian Crisis
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1185

Binod Khanal | Binod Khanal is a Doctoral candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.

The Baltic: Energy, Russia, NATO and China
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1183

Padmashree Anandhan | Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangaluru.

Germany in 2023: Defence, Economy and Energy Triangle
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1178

​​​​​​​Ashok Alex Luke | Ashok Alex Luke is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at CMS College, Kottayam.

China and South Asia in 2023: Advantage Beijing?
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1177

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri | Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

China and East Asia
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan