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CWA # 1342, 5 June 2024
Global Politics Early Bird
Mexico Elections 2024: A Historic Moment sees a First Woman President in North America

  Dhriti Mukherjee

On 3 June, following preliminary results released by Mexico’s official electoral authority, Claudia Sheinbaum was elected as Mexico’s first woman president after securing 58.8 per cent of the votes. Her principal opposition was the National Action Party’s Xóchitl Gálvez, an engineer with Indigenous roots who conceded defeat. The third candidate, Jorge Maynez who is part of the Citizens’ Movement, secured only ten per cent of the vote.

Of the country’s 100 million registered voters, around 58 per cent voted, casting their ballots for the presidency and 20,000 positions in the country’s biggest election. These positions include the Senate, deputy seats, and governorship of Mexico City and eight other states.

Following her victory, Sheinbaum addressed Mexican women and said that her victory was “about all” women getting to the top.

Who is Claudia Sheinbaum?
Sheinbaum, the first woman and Jewish president of Mexico, had earlier served as the first female mayor of Mexico City. The 61-year-old climate scientist is a part of the leftist Morena party, the same party to which outgoing Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) belongs. She is referred to as “la Doctora” for her academic credentials. Her transition from engineering and student activism to politics came under AMLO’s wing after she met him during a meeting following her election as the mayor. After he asked her to be the secretary of the environment, she campaigned on his behalf while furthering her political career. She was the first woman elected to lead Mexico City in 2018, a post from which she resigned in 2023 to seek her party’s presidential nomination. Her victory is a historic moment as the country has always been known for its longstanding patriarchy and machismo.

What were the election issues?
First, organised crime. Aside from being the biggest election, it was also the most violent one in the country. Drug cartels, gangs, and criminal groups have taken over parts of the country, and violence stemming from organised crime has become common. Analysts have claimed that corrupt politicians take up controlling political positions and enable violence in exchange for large amounts of money.

Second, a rise in electoral violence. There was also a notable increase in violence against political figures. As per Mexican public affairs consulting firm Integralia, there has been a 150 per cent increase in the number of victims of political violence since 2021. The Morena party’s policy of “hugs not bullets,” which Sheinbaum has pledged to continue, has been widely blamed by the public and opposition for the persisting violence, as it fails to address the cartel issue head-on.

Third, a slowing economy. Recently, Mexico’s growth has averaged just above two per cent a year, and it is forecasted to remain slow in 2024 as well. A slowdown in construction and exports to the US has been largely linked to the decline in growth. At the same time, inflation has persisted, along with high interest rates and the largest budget deficit since the 1980s.

Fourth, a choice between continuity and democracy. Though the Morena party has had a dominating grip on Mexican politics and voters, there has been a recent shift towards wanting democratic elements in the country. However, many have claimed that voting for Morena could mean a setback for democratic progress, as the continuing rule of the party has been viewed as a step towards Mexico becoming a one-party state.

What are the challenges facing Sheinbaum?
First, the surging violence. AMLO’s term in power has been the most violent in Mexican history, with more than 175,000 murdered and 111,000 missing according to official figures. Firstpost stated that daily, 80 people are murdered in Mexico. Drug traffickers have begun engaging in migrant trafficking and protecting rackets, and AMLO’s policy of not taking on a head-on approach with these traffickers has been described as a policy of appeasement by critics.

Second, persisting femicides. As per UN figures, up to ten women are femicide victims every day, and in 2023, more than 3,000 women were victims of femicide while thousands more disappeared. This alarmingly high figure is due to an insufficient justice system and impunity, where crimes are not always reported, and even when they are, the justice system either dismisses the case or fails to conduct a proper investigation.

Third, a problematic economy. Spooked by Sheinbaum’s landslide victory, Mexican stocks fell over six per cent on 3 June while the peso closed at its weakest to the dollar since November 2023. This was majorly due to fears that the result could mean constitutional changes and diminishing checks and balances. The global head of markets at ING questioned whether “the Morena party has done so well that it could command a super-majority and try to pursue market non-friendly policies of constitutional reform.” Thus, one of Sheinbaum’s main challenges will be bolstering market sentiment and giving an investment-friendly policy.

Fourth, the upcoming elections in the US. Following Sheinbaum’s victory, US President Joe Biden stated on 3 June: “I congratulate Claudia Sheinbaum on her historic election as the first woman President of Mexico. I look forward to working closely with President-elect Sheinbaum in the spirit of partnership and friendship that reflects the enduring bonds between our two countries.” However, both Biden and former US President Donald Trump who will face each other in the elections in November, have said they will toughen up on Mexico getting close to China. With Biden moving towards policies adopted by the Trump administration on immigration, it is clear that regardless of who comes to power, more migrants will remain stranded at the Mexican border.

References
Karin Strohecker & Rodrigo Campos, “Mexican peso, stocks tumble on fears of ruling coalition super-majority in Congress,” Reuters, 4 June 2024;

Maria Verza, “Mexico’s next president faces 3 pressing challenges: money, dialogue and the US election,” AP¸4 June 2024;

“Mexico election live results 2024: By the numbers,” Al Jazeera, 3 June 2024;

Belén Fernández, “Mexico’s election: A victory for organised crime,” Al Jazeera, 3 June 2024;

Anthony Esposito & Noe Torres, “Mexico's next president will have to boost tax take to pay for social programs,” Reuters, 3 June 2024;

Elizabeth Melimopoulos, “‘La Presidenta’: Claudia Sheinbaum wins historic Mexico election mandate,” Al Jazeera, 3 June 2024;

Simon Romero, Natalie Kitroeff & Emiliano Rodriguez Mega, “Voters in Mexico Cement the Governing Party’s Dominance,” The New York Times, 3 June 2024;

Thomas Graham, “Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum poised to secure supermajority after historic win,” The Guardian, 3 June 2024;

Will Grant, “Mexico's first female president breaks political glass ceiling,” BBC¸ 3 June 2024;

Kylie Madry & Valentine Hilaire, “Historic win gives Mexico's Sheinbaum a landslide, spooks markets,” Reuters, 3 June 2024;

Belén Fernández, “Mexico’s election: A victory for organised crime,” Al Jazeera, 3 June 2024;

Mary Beth Sheridan, “Mexico fought for democracy. Could it slide back to a one-party state?” The Washington Post, 3 June 2024;

“Mexico: Sheinbaum faces uphill task to buck the trend and curtail spiralling violence,” The Conversation, 3 June 2024;

Vinicius Andrade & Maria Elena Vizcaino, “What Wall Street Strategists Are Saying About Sheinbaum’s Landslide Victory in Mexico,” Bloomberg, 3 June 2024;

Vanessa Buschschlüter, “Mexico elects Claudia Sheinbaum as first woman president,” BBC, 3 June 2024;

“These are the pressing gender-related issues facing Mexico’s next president,” PBS News Hour, 3 June 2024;

“From migration to cartels: What are the challenges that await Mexico’s new president?,” Firstpost, 3 June 2024;

Lizbeth Diaz, “Mexican candidate assassinations hit grim record ahead of Sunday's election,” Reuters, 1 June 2024;

Fabiola Sanchez & Armando Solis, “Mexico’s drug cartels and gangs appear to be playing a wider role in Sunday’s elections than before,” AP, 1 June 2024;

“Violence clouds the last day of campaigning for Mexico’s election,” AP, 30 May 2024;

Kelsey Butler, “The 10 Economic Challenges Mexico’s Next President Will Face,” Bloomberg, 30 May 2024;

Lillian Perlmutter, “Who is Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s first female president-elect?” Al Jazeera, 29 May 2024;

About the author

Dhriti Mukherjee is a Research Assistant at NIAS. She follows contemporary developments in the Americas. Click here for her recent publication in The Hindu, on the persisting violence in Haiti.

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