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CWA # 1354, 21 June 2024
Conflict Weekly
Ukraine Peace Summit, New Challenges to Netanyahu, and Wildfires in California

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #233, 21 June 2024, Vol.5, No.25
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Govind Anoop, Ayan Datta and Akriti Sharma

Ukraine Peace Summit: 78 countries sign communique 
Govind Anoop

In the news
On 16 June, the EU member states and the US along with Ghana, Kenya, Argentina, Columbia, the Philippines, Qatar and Guatemala signed a joint communique. It stated: “We reaffirm our commitment to refraining from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, the principles of sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity of all states, including Ukraine.”

On 15 June, 90-plus countries attended the Summit on Peace in Ukraine hosted by Switzerland in Bürgenstock. China and Russia were absent; the former having boycotted the event and the latter not being invited. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said: “I believe that we will witness history being made here at the summit. May a just peace be established as soon as possible.”

On 14 June, Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed a peace plan if Ukraine withdrew its troops from the four annexed regions, agreed with Russia’s territorial gains, gave up on its NATO ambitions and confirmed its neutral status.

Issues at large
First, Ukraine’s peace efforts. In October 2022, Zelensky began the idea of “peace for Ukraine.” The idea of a peace plan has encouraged other actors including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and China to initiate negotiations. Although no progress has been recorded between the key actors, Ukraine and Russia, Zelensky continued to gather support through a series of diplomatic meetings across Europe, the Middle East and Africa, which aided in accumulating support during the peace summit. Some other key peace efforts were the 10 February Normandy talks led by France and Germany, and the Minsk agreement talks led by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE). Except for these, there has been no landmark peace talks mediated by the West.

Second, Russia’s criticism and response. Moscow criticised the summit describing it as a campaign by leaders of the EU members to garner votes during the EU elections. Russia’s proposed peace plan included demands for Ukraine to give up plans to join NATO and concede territories in the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. 

Third, the international responses. India, South Africa and Mexico abstained from voting despite attending the summit. Countries including Turkey and Saudi Arabia shared China’s view toward the summit being an echo chamber and that Russia’s involvement is required for any peace process to be successful. 

Issues at large
In March 2022, at the UN General Assembly, 141 members called Russian troops to leave Ukraine. However, during the peace summit, Ukraine gathered the support of only 78 countries. Besides, Jordan, Iraq and Rwanda backed out of the communique days after the Summit. This implies signs of war fatigue, and a preference to maintain relations with Russia, its ally China and the Western powers that support Ukraine. Further, the lack of initiative to include Russia in its peace talks imply that the summit was aimed not to end the war but to put forth Ukraine’s perspective and its conditions for peace.
 
Meanwhile, Russia’s dismissal of Ukraine’s peace plan implies that Russia does not want peace without victory. Putin has indicated that Ukraine’s sovereignty belongs to Russia and that any settlement without Ukraine in Russia’s control is unacceptable.

Israel: Challenges to Netanyahu’s War
Ayan Datta
 
In the news
On 17 June, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dissolved the war cabinet. Communications Specialist at the Prime Minister’s Office, David Mencer, stated that the war cabinet had been set up for Benny Gantz and the National Unity Party as a “prerequisite” for them joining the unity government formed after 7 October and that “with Mr Gantz leaving government (on 9 June), there is no need for the cabinet.”

On 18 June, Netanyahu stated that the Biden administration was “withholding weapons and ammunition from Israel.” On 20 June, White House spokesperson John Kirby commented that Netanyahu’s statement was “disappointing, especially given that no other country is doing more to help Israel defend itself against the threat by Hamas.” 

On 16 June, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) stated that it would hold daily “tactical pauses” of military activity in southern Gaza for humanitarian aid deliveries. The pause would apply every day for 11 hours, from 8 am to 7 pm, along a route connecting the Kerem Shalom crossing to Khan Yunis’ European Hospital. On the same day, Netanyahu and Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir criticised the IDF’s plan. 

On 20 June, IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagar stated that Israel’s war aim of eradicating Hamas was “unattainable.” He added: “If the government doesn’t find an alternative — [Hamas] will remain.” 

The same day, Netanyahu’s office stated that Israel was committed to destroying Hamas. Additionally, the IDF stated that Hagar was only talking about Hamas as an idea and that “any other claim is taking things out of context.”
 
Issues at large
First, the internal differences over Israel’s endgame in Gaza. On 12 October 2023, Netanyahu constituted the war cabinet as an ad-hoc body with himself, Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant, and Gantz as members. It aimed to oversee Israel’s military efforts in Gaza. For Netanyahu and his far-right coalition partners including Ben-Gvir, Israel shall reject US President Biden’s ceasefire deal and control Gaza after destroying Hamas. For Gantz, Netanyahu shall accept Biden’s deal and transfer Gaza’s civilian governance to an international coalition. 

Second, the US-Netanyahu rift. The US is against Israel’s military operations in Rafah because of the risks of civilian casualties. It paused the arms shipment in protest against Israel’s attack. For Netanyahu, attacking Rafah was necessary because it contained the last remaining Hamas battalions. 

The IDF statement on humanitarian pauses and endgames. For Netanyahu, Israel shall reject humanitarian pauses because they help Hamas rebuild its capabilities and control Gaza after eliminating Hamas. For the IDF, pausing military operations along one route does not harm its operations in the rest of Gaza. It believes that Hamas would revive its forces in Gaza unless replaced by a political alternative.
 
In perspective
Netanyahu’s conflict with the IDF over endgames is likely to intensify. Previously, Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant (a former IDF commander himself) had criticised Netanyahu’s endgame. For him, Gaza shall be governed by the Palestinian Authority. Hagar’s statement is similar to Gallant’s view. Gallant’s statement revealed a conflict between Netanyahu and the military establishment over endgames. Hagar’s views indicate that the conflict has intensified over time.

Eliminating Hamas may not be a viable war aim. Hamas fighters do not wear uniforms, ranks or insignia. Israel’s destruction of civilian infrastructure has radicalised local Gazans. According to the think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, refugee camps created by Israel’s displacement serve as recruitment sites for Hamas. These camps hold around 1.5 million people, whereas the average Hamas organisation has around 200 fighters. Hamas can easily recruit local Gazans from camps and replenish its fighters at a faster rate than Israel eliminating them. Hamas has additionally changed its tactics from head-on attacks to guerilla warfare and hit-and-run tactics. All these factors make it difficult for the IDF to eliminate Hamas as a fighting force.

The US: Extreme weather events in California and beyond
Akriti Sharma
 
In the news
On 18 June, multiple weather advisories were issued across the country due to the extreme weather. Dry and strong winds triggered massive wildfires in California burning 15,000 acres. Two people died due to the same. 

On 18 June, heavy rain and thunderstorms spread across the central and western Gulf Coast after a potential tropical storm warning was issued in Texas. On the other hand, a winter storm warning was issued in Montana and Idaho. 

On 19 June, the National Weather Service issued its first-ever excessive heat warning for Caribou and Maine stating: “Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values up to 106[F] expected” where the heatwave is expected to intensify. 

On 19 June, the National Weather Service declared a flash flood emergency in New Mexico after wildfires were raging. It stated: “Water rescues are ongoing in the Ruidoso area as flood waters surge down the slopes from nearby burn scars.”
 
Issues at large
First, a brief note on extreme weather events. The US has been witnessing storms, cyclones, heatwaves, and wildfires every season highlighting an increase in the frequency, intensity, and magnitude of extreme weather events in the country. With contradictory weather anomalies occurring simultaneously, the US is witnessing compound events. It is the occurrence of multiple climate hazards occurring simultaneously in isolation or at various locations. Compound events have a greater impact on the ecosystems. It put pressure on infrastructure, water and food supplies, transportation and communication, and public health. In the US, the firefighters have been juggling across California and New Mexico between raging blazes and flash floods.

Second, climate change as the cause and effect. Climate change is the main driver of extreme weather events. With rising temperatures, these are projected to increase further.  Wildfires burning can increase pollution and emissions leading to a vicious cycle making climate change the cause and effect of the events.

Third, the increasing recurrence and intensity. In 2023, the US witnessed 27 disasters including floods, droughts, storms, and cyclones. In 2024, so far, it has experienced 12 disasters including severe storms and floods. From 1980 to 2024, the country witnessed 195 severe storms, 24 winter storms, 44 flooding, 31 droughts, 62 tropical cyclones, 22 wildfires, and nine freeze billion-dollar disaster events, according to the National Centers for Environment Information (NOAA). There is a sharp increase in the frequency and intensity of events incurring billions of losses.

Fourth, need for better governance and disaster management. With an increase in the recurrence of extreme weather events, there is a need for better governance and disaster management at the local level. Such events incur human and economic loss that demands preparedness and effective response. Developed countries are at a leverage in effective disaster management. However, for less developed countries, managing such events is a challenge.
 
In perspective
First, more focus on climate adaptation. Even though the global climate target is achieved, such events are projected to increase. This demands more focus on adaptation and the need for climate finance. Although the developed countries can adapt better, the developing and less developed countries need more finance to address such events.

Second, extreme weather events are manifestations of climate change and are expected to increase. To address them, effective governance and disaster management is required. Recurring events also demand preparedness at the local and national levels. 

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Rohini Reenum, Akriti Sharma, Akhil Ajith, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan, Dhriti Mukherjee, Vetriselvi Baskaran, Ayan Datta, Ken B Varghese, Mugdha Chaturvedi, Chris Fernando, Govind Anoop, Shilpa Joseph, Sayeka Ghosh and Neha Tresa George

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Authorities rename villages and towns with Uyghur cultural references
On 19 June, a report by Human Rights Watch (HRW) found that the Chinese authorities renamed several Uyghur towns and villages to remove cultural and religious references. The new names reflect the ideology of the Chinese Communist Party. The report published by the HRW and the Norway-based organisation, Uyghur Help, exhibited that about 630 communities have been renamed. According to the report, these incidents have been happening since 2009 and increased since 2017. "Hoja," a title of Sufi teacher, was removed from at least 25 villages. The authorities changed the names to reference Uyghur kingdoms, republics, and leaders before 1949. The Director of the HRW Asia division, Elaine Pearson, stated: "This is a part of broader efforts by the Chinese government to conflate Islam terrorism."

China: Xi Jinping calls for "all-out effort" on disaster relief measures after floods
On 18 June, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged "all-out effort" to fight floods and droughts to ensure solid work in disaster relief and safeguard the people's lives, property, and social stability. Referring to the heavy rainfall in many parts of Southern China and droughts in northern and central China, Xi stated: "No efforts should be spared to search and rescue those who are missing or trapped. Make proper arrangements for the victims and maintain normal order in work and life and minimise the damage." Several provinces initiated and upgraded their emergency response for flooding after experiencing downpours and rising river levels.

China: US approves USD 360 million arms sale to Taiwan
On 18 June, the US Defence Security Cooperation Agency announced the potential sale of drones and missiles worth an estimated USD 360 million to Taiwan. The sale included 720 Switchblades, three hundred anti-personnel and anti-armour loitering munitions valued at USD 60.2 million, and ALTIUS 600M-V drones and related equipment valued at USD 300 million. This move came as China has been increasing military pressure on Taiwan, conducting war games around the island after the inauguration of Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te. The Pentagon agency stated that the sale "will help improve the security of the recipient and assist in maintaining political stability, military balance, and economic progress in the region." Taiwan's Ministry of National Defence expressed gratitude, emphasising the ability of these weapons to "detect and strike in real-time, and can respond quickly to enemy threats."

China: The US 15 years behind on nuclear power, reports Reuters
On 17 June, Reuters reported that the US is 15 years behind China in developing high-tech nuclear power as Beijing's state-backed technology and extensive financing have helped boost its nuclear power. A study by the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation exhibited that China has 27 nuclear reactors under construction with an average timeline of about seven years, faster than other countries. The US has the world's largest fleet of nuclear power plants, and the Biden administration considers using virtually emissions-free electricity sources critical in curbing climate change. China's state-owned banks offer loans at 1.4 per cent interest, which is far lower than that of the Western economies.

China: Philippine ship collides with a Chinese vessel in the South China Sea
On 17 June, a collision in the disputed South China Sea escalated tensions between China and the Philippines. According to the Chinese Coast Guard, a Philippine supply ship illegally intruded into waters adjacent to the Second Thomas Shoal and dangerously approached a Chinese vessel, resulting in a slight collision. The Coast Guard stated that the Philippine ship ignored repeated warnings and deliberately manoeuvred in an unprofessional manner, leading to the collision. However, no injuries or damages were mentioned.

China: #MeToo and Labour movement activist sentenced for state subversion
On 14 June, a leading Chinese activist, Huang Xueiqn, was sentenced to five years of imprisonment after she was found guilty of state subversion. Huang, a 35-year-old independent journalist, said she would appeal her sentence. Wang Jianbing, a 40-year-old labour activist, was tried with her and sentenced to three years and six months in jail. The pair were detained in September 2021 and put on trial in 2023. They denied any wrongdoing during the trial, which happened behind closed doors. The charges of sedition against the pair were based on the gatherings they often conducted with the youth, where they would discuss social issues. The Chinese government frequently uses the charge of subversion of state power against dissidents, which carries a maximum prison term of five years.

North Korea: Anti-tank barriers placed along the South Korean border
On 18 June, according to the Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), North Korea placed anti-tank barriers along the border with South Korea in addition to laying mines and reinforcing roads. The move was seen as an attempt to strengthen internal control to prevent the defection of civilians and troops from North Korea. Anti-tank barriers were constructed along the DMZ in four areas. The JCS explained that the explosions along the border were due to anti-personnel mines.

South Korea: Seoul National University doctors walk out over hike in medical admissions
On 17 June, 529 medical professors from four hospitals affiliated with the Seoul National University (SNU) began an indefinite walkout. They stated that they would call off the walkout only if the government readjusts a hike in medical school admissions and fully withdraws punitive steps against the trainee doctors. The committee demanded the government fully scrap all administrative orders issued against the trainee doctors who left the hospitals in February and establish permanent platforms for the medical community to reflect on their policies. Despite the fierce protests by trainee doctors, the government finalised an admission quota hike of 1500 students for medical schools in May. This marked the first such increase in 27 years. Meanwhile, the government urged the SNU hospital leaders not to authorise the walkout.

Australia: Australian Border Force questions three citizens on their plans to join IDF
On 18 June, The Guardian reported that the Australian Border Force (ABF) questioned three Australian citizens suspected of travelling to Israel to join the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF). The Australian government warned its citizens planning to serve in any foreign country's military to consider their legal obligations and avoid criminal offences. The citizens were questioned under the accusation of foreign incursion offences under the current military code, although the code does not prohibit Australians from serving in foreign military. The code empowers the Australian federal police to investigate war crimes and other serious crimes committed overseas. The Department of Home Affairs said it knew about their travel plans to Israel and had the right to question them during customs checks.

Australia: Four Indians secretly expelled for espionage activities in 2020
On 18 June, according to a report by ABC News, Australia secretly expelled four Indian spies posing as diplomats for their spying activities in 2020. It added that the spies targeted Australia's defence technology, politicians, and airport security protocols. It quoted Australia's intelligence chief, Mike Burgess: "The spies developed targeted relationships with current and former politicians, a foreign embassy, and a state police service." The report detailed that the suspected spies were expelled quietly to avoid embarrassing the Indian government.

South Asia
Pakistan: Ambassador to the UN expresses concern over acquisition of modern weapons by terrorist groups
On 18 June, while speaking at the UN's Fourth Review Conference of the Programme of Action (PoA) on Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW), Pakistan's Ambassador Munir Akram called on the UN for a "concerted campaign" to recover weapons from terrorist groups. He expressed Pakistan's "grave concern over the acquisition and use of modern and sophisticated small arms by terrorist groups," including the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Akram called for a probe into such groups acquiring advanced weapons. He contended that since "terrorists and criminals do not manufacture these arms," these groups acquire the weapons from "illicit arms markets or receive them from entities that want to destabilise a particular region or country." Thus, conflicts are being exacerbated by this "illicit proliferation, excessive accumulation and misuse of SALW." He noted that the advancement of technology and the use of unmanned aerial vehicles and drones has deepened "challenges in combating the proliferation of increasingly lethal small arms." Akram stressed that it was the responsibility of the UN and its member states to take action to prevent this.

Pakistan: Senior journalist Khalil Jibran killed by unknown assailants in Khyber
On 19 June, police in the Landi Kotal tehsil of the Khyber district stated that unidentified gunmen had killed senior journalist Khalil Jibran on 18 June. He worked with local dailies and a Pashtu language private media. On 19 June, residents and local journalists protested in response, blocking the main highway and accusing law enforcement agencies of failing to launch an immediate search operation. Other journalists' organisations and press clubs in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa staged protests. The Pakistan Federal Union of Journalists (PFU) strongly condemned the murder, and the union's leaders jointly stated that despite many journalists being targeted, the government had not arrested a single murderer. They said: "This shows that the government is not interested in protecting those who are on the hit list of terrorists."

Pakistan: Army official condemns India for "false propaganda and provocations against Pakistan"
On 17 June, according to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), Chief of Army Staff (COAS) General Syed Asim Munir celebrated Eid ul Adha with the troops in Haji Pir sector. Addressing the troops, COAS stated: "As soldiers, we take pride in celebrating such festivities away from our homes and loved ones while on duty, ensuring the security of our country and fellow citizens." He discussed the ongoing struggles in Jammu and Kashmir and reemphasised Pakistan's stance, which is aligned with UN resolutions. He condemned India's sustained "oppression and brutalities against Kashmiris" underlining the surge of aggression post-elections through "false propaganda and provocations against Pakistan." The ISPR stated: "Such tactics, including manufacturing false flag operations, have become a routine political tool of India." Munir warned that while "Pakistan has always supported peace and stability in the region," any form of "provocation or violation of Pakistan's territorial sovereignty will be met with a swift and resolute response, with the full support of the nation."

Pakistan: Six killed in Kurram
On 16 June, an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attack in the central Kurram region killed four people and injured two. Separately, unknown miscreants opened fire in Lower Kurram, where two brothers lost their lives. On the same day, locals staged a peaceful march against the unrest and called on the government to restore peace in the area.

Pakistan: TTP announces three-day ceasefire on the "demand of the Pakistani people"
On 16 June, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) announced a three-day ceasefire from 17 June to 19 June with the Pakistani government on the occasion of Eidul Adha. The group, a close ally of the Afghan Taliban who has claimed attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa recently, stated that this move was taken on the "demand of the Pakistani people." It detailed: "Therefore, all institutions and Mujahideen of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan should obey the above orders." It warned that if any "action is taken by the [Pakistani] army and security agencies on this occasion, then all Mujahideen should ensure their self-defence." The group added that its leader, Mufti Abu Mansoor Asim, issued a decree to reduce the sentence of all "prisoners" held by the TPP by two months.

Bangladesh: Rohingyas detained for visiting a beach
On 18 June, the district administration in Bangladesh seized four buses that took the Rohingyas to visit the Cox Bazar beach and detained seven drivers and assistants. The detained people from several camps were returned to the Kutupalong camp. The bus owners were fined, and their bonds were taken, warning them of cancellation of permits and driving licences if they helped in the illegal transportation of Rohingyas. The district administration in the country monitors the movement of the refugees.

Sri Lanka: Indian fishermen arrested 
On 18 June, four Indian fishermen were arrested and the trawler was seized by the Sri Lankan Navy. The fishermen have been accused of poaching in Lankan waters. Until now, 180 fishermen have been arrested. Most similar incidents happen in the Palk Strait, a rich fishing ground.

Bangladesh: Rohingyas die due to heavy rains
On 19 June, early that morning, landslides caused by heavy torrential rains in the Ukhiya refugee camps led to the death of nine people, including eight Rohingyas. The additional refugee relief and repatriation commissioner confirmed the number of deaths. However, the bodies have not been identified. The evacuation of Rohingyas living in the risky hilly areas has been ongoing. 

Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa
Iran: IRGC listed as a "terrorist" group by Canada
On 19 June, Canada designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a "terrorist" entity to counter "terrorist financing." The Canadian government revealed that the decision was taken to send a "strong message" that Canada would do everything in its power "to combat the terrorist activity of the IRGC." Canada's Minister of Public Safety, Dominic LeBlanc, explained the rationale behind the decision, stating: "The Iranian regime has consistently displayed a complete disregard for human rights, both inside and outside Iran, as well as a willingness to destabilise the international rules-based order. Listing the IRGC builds on the Government of Canada's broader efforts to ensure that there is no impunity for Iran's unlawful actions and its support of terrorism." Canada advised its citizens in Iran to leave and others to not visit it under fear of "arbitrary detention." In response, Iran deemed the action an "unwise and unconventional politically motivated step." Further, Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Nasser Kanaani, stated, "Canada's action will not have any effect on the Revolutionary Guards' legitimate and deterrent power."

Iran: Presidential elections to be held on 28 June
On 20 June, the Middle East Monitor reported that Iran would hold presidential elections on 28 June. The registration of candidates will begin on 30 May. The new president would replace Mohammad Mokhber, who became acting president after President Ibrahim Raisi's death.

Iraq: Armed groups to resume attacks on US troops
On 20 June, according to the Institute for the Study of War, the Iraqi Resistance Coordination Committee stated that Iraqi armed groups would resume attacks on US forces. Previously, on 19 June, the committee stated that armed groups would use "all available means "to achieve sovereignty of Iraq from the US occupation.

Israel: Katz says ready for Lebanon war
On 19 June, Israel's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Israel Katz, stated that the country was ready for a war in Lebanon against Hezbollah. He said: "We are very close to the moment of decision to change the rules against Hezbollah and Lebanon. In an all-out war, Hezbollah will be destroyed, and Lebanon will be severely hit."

Syria: Turkish President Erdogan says open to talks with Assad
On 17 June, according to Reuters, Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that he was open to meeting Syria's President Bashar al-Assad for negotiations if Turkish military withdrawal from Syrian territory was not a pre-condition. Since 2011, Turkey has been assisting Syria's opposition forces.

Egypt: Amnesty International report on inhuman treatment of refugees from Sudan
On 19 June, a report published by Amnesty International stated that Egypt deported thousands of Sudanese refugees and arrested many unlawfully. It documented 12 instances where Egyptian authorities returned 800 Sudanese nationals without allowing them to claim asylum or challenge deportation decisions. There was an additional case of 27 Sudanese refugees arrested between October 2023 and March 2024, 26 of whom were collectively expelled. The group claimed that refugees were held in inhuman conditions before their deportation. While Egypt's National Council for Human Rights denied these claims and asserted that they respected international law, Egypt's State Information Service did not respond to the report.

Kenya: Protests against tax hikes
On 20 June, Kenyan police used tear gas and water cannon on protesters gathered near the parliament against planned tax hikes. President William Ruto had introduced a new bill with taxes to raise 1.9 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to pay off debts. Following the violent protests on 17 June, Ruto announced several concessions to the bill. The protestors claim that the new taxation would increase the burden on the public and the young population. The government has additionally increased fuel prices and export taxes, which would further inflation.

Somalia: Government seeking slow withdrawal of ATMIS troops
On 20 June, Al Jazeera reported that Somalia's government wrote a letter to the African Union Peace and Security Council in May 2024 seeking a slow withdrawal of the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), fearing a potential security vacuum. In a joint assessment in March, the government recommended that the AU withdraw in a timely manner according to the capabilities and readiness of Somali forces. National Security Adviser Hussein Sheikh-Ali explained the need for the postponement, fearing the al-Shabab resurgence.

Democratic Republic of Congo: M23 rebels attack kills five civilians
On 19 June, a bombardment in eastern Congo's North Kivu province killed five people, including three women and a girl. The Congo army accused the M23 rebel group of the attack.

Europe and the Americas
Ukraine: Presidents Zelenskyy and Biden sign 10-point security agreement
On 13 June, the US and Ukraine signed a bilateral security agreement. On 14 June, the White House published the agreement and highlighted its tenets and principles. The deal acknowledged Ukraine's efforts to reach a just end to the war and achieve lasting, sustainable peace based on Article 51 of the UN charter. The agreement mentioned Ukraine's future in NATO and called for Ukraine's deepening integration into the Euro-Atlantic community. The agreement condemned Russia's aggression and sought compensation for the damages Ukraine incurred during the war.

Europe: NATO report reveals 23 allies on track to reach defence spending target
On 17 June, NATO published the Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries 2014-2024. NATO members' defence expenditures increased by 17.9 per cent, with 23 NATO allies meeting the two per cent defence budget. Germany, The Netherlands, Norway, and Turkey reached the target for the first time. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said: "Across Europe and Canada, NATO allies are, this year, increasing defence spending by 18 per cent. That's the biggest increase in decades." Canada, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia and Spain were the lowest spenders.

Brazil: President urges government to increase measures to combat crimes in the Amazon
On 17 June, Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva called on his government to speed up actions to counter organised crime in the Amazon. He stated: "We need to speed up the process, because my term is only four years. If we cannot execute this plan, someone else will come along and do nothing." Approximately USD 58.6 million would be provided for the security plan. The initiative aims to counter the Amazon's destruction due to illegal activities including logging, gold mining, drug trafficking and smuggling of tropical animals.

El Salvador: Death toll rises as Central America faces heavy rains
On 17 June, Civil Protection authorities in El Salvador reported that nearly 11 people lost their lives due to torrential rains on Central America's Pacific coast since 15 June. Civil Protection Chief Luis Amaya explained that the victims, including children, died in landslides and accidents caused by trees falling on the roadside. The rains forced around 900 individuals to move to temporary shelters. Forecasters have predicted more rain throughout the week and warned about the high possibility of storms over the Gulf of Mexico.

Venezuela: Government arrests four opposition activists, accuses them of instigating hate and conspiracy
On 17 June, Venezuela's opposition coalition stated that four activists from two political parties had been detained amid rising tensions ahead of the presidential elections in July. Gabriel Gonzalez, Javier Cisneros, Jeancarlos Rivas and Juan Iriarte of the Popular Will and Vente Venezuela are a few of the many activists who were detained over the past week and accused of instigating hate and conspiracy. Opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez later asserted that the coalition would "denounce this new attack by the government in all the relevant international venues." He added that they could not "allow these types of grave violations to continue to be committed." In 2024 alone, 37 activists have been arrested.

Ecuador: Six killed and several missing after heavy rain sets off landslides
On 16 June, in the central Ecuadorian city of Baños, a landslide led to at least six people being killed. Authorities stated that heavy rains throughout the country caused rivers to overflow. Across Ecuador, storms caused severe floods of mud crashing into highways and bridges, affecting the main roads which connect Ecuador's highlands to the Amazonian provinces. The rains delayed rescue efforts. The mayor of Baños, Miguel Guevara, directed residents to stay clear of roads.

Honduras: President announces measures to tackle rising organised crime
On 14 June, Honduras' President Xiomara Castro announced a series of measures and "plans of solutions against crime" that would be implemented to tackle the rise in organised crime. This would include the construction of a "megaprison" with a capacity of over 20,000 and designating the gang groups as "terrorist" with collective trials on the members. These come as a response to a "security emergency" in the country. A member of the Honduras National Defense and Security Council stated that the police and the armed forces must be deployed to "urgently execute interventions across parts of the country with the highest incidences of gang crimes, such as murders for hire, drug and firearm trafficking, extortion, kidnapping and money laundering." The megaprison, referred to as the Emergency Reclusion Centre, is set to be built in a sparsely populated area and would increase the country's current prison capacity.

The US: Sanctions imposed on Israeli group for sabotaging attempts to provide aid to Gaza
On 14 June, the US imposed sanctions on "violent extremist" Israeli groups who blocked and damaged convoys carrying humanitarian aid to Gaza. The group, Tzav 9, aimed to prevent any assistance and indulged in looting and setting fire to the aid trucks in Gaza. The Department of State stated: "The government of Israel has a responsibility to ensure the safety and security of humanitarian convoys transiting Israel and the West Bank en route to Gaza. We will not tolerate acts of sabotage and violence targeting this essential humanitarian assistance." It noted the importance of humanitarian assistance towards "preventing the humanitarian crisis in Gaza from worsening and mitigating the risk of famine." As a result of the sanctions, Tzav 9's assets in the US would be blocked, and US citizens would be prohibited from engaging in transactions with them.

The US: President Biden announces new executive order allowing hundreds of immigrants to get citizenship
On 18 June, US President Joe Biden announced that hundreds of thousands of immigrants would be able to apply for citizenship. Through the measures, more than 500,000 spouses of US citizens and roughly 50,000 non-citizen children under 21 (whose parents are married to a US citizen) would be able to apply for permanent residence and then citizenship in the US. Biden said the new action to fix the "cumbersome" system is a "common-sense fix." Currently, undocumented spouses "have to leave their families in America with no assurance that they will be allowed back." Biden opined that these measures would "fix" the problem and not make "any fundamental change" to the immigration law. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre appreciated the measures saying that it would bring "stability" to families and help "keep American families together and allow more young people to contribute" to the US' economy.

The US: Indian man suspected of plotting to kill Sikh separatist extradited from Czech Republic
On 17 June, Czech Republic's Justice Minister, Pavel Blazek, announced that his country had extradited an Indian man, Nikhil Gupta, accused of being involved in an unsuccessful plot to kill a Sikh separatist. The US had claimed that the Indian government had directed the plot. US federal prosecutors have accused Gupta of plotting with intelligence officials to attempt to kill Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, a US and Canadian citizen and an advocate for a sovereign Sikh state. Gupta was arrested in 2023 by Czech authorities, and in May 2024, a Czech court rejected his petition to avoid being sent to the US. If convicted, he could face up to 20 years in prison. 

About the authors
Akriti Sharma and Rohini Reenum are PhD Scholars at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Dhriti Mukherjee, Akhil Ajith and Vetriselvi Baskaran are Research Assistants at NIAS. Shilpa Joseph, Ayan Datta, Ken B Varghese, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh, Mugdha Chaturvedi, Govind Anoop and Cris Fernando are Research Interns at NIAS.

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Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1189

Hoimi Mukherjee | Hoimi Mukherjee is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science in Bankura Zilla Saradamani Mahila Mahavidyapith.

Chile in 2023: Crises of Constitutionality
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1187

Aprajita Kashyap | Aprajita Kashyap is a faculty of Latin American Studies, School of International Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi.

Haiti in 2023: The Humanitarian Crisis
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1185

Binod Khanal | Binod Khanal is a Doctoral candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.

The Baltic: Energy, Russia, NATO and China
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1183

Padmashree Anandhan | Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangaluru.

Germany in 2023: Defence, Economy and Energy Triangle
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1178

​​​​​​​Ashok Alex Luke | Ashok Alex Luke is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at CMS College, Kottayam.

China and South Asia in 2023: Advantage Beijing?
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1177

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri | Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

China and East Asia
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan