The World This Week

CWA # 793
The World This Week
The US easing sanctions on Venezuela, OPEC's production cut, and the WTO report on global trade

GP Team
9 October 2022
Photo Source: BBC

TWTW#185, 09 October 2022, Vol. 4, No. 34
 

Ankit Singh and Bhoomika Sesharaj

 The US: Courting dictators to keep a favourable energy market
 
What happened?
On 5 October, Wall Street Journal reported that the White House may ease sanctions on Venezuela and its dictator Nicolás Maduro to increase the supply of oil for the global market.
 
Another energy-related development was the decision by OPEC+ to reduce oil production by 2 million barrels per day. The group currently supplies around 44 per cent of the world crude oil exports. The decision to reduce productions was not appreciated by the US which expected an increase in production.

What is the background?
First, the premise of the decision. The development came after Venezuela, on 1 October, released seven American prisoners, five of which were oil executives. In the same week, Venezuela’s opposition leader’s team consulted the US for the preliminary technical service agreement reached between Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), a Venezuelan state-owned oil and natural gas company and Chevron, an oil major from the US to further expand the joint ventures in Venezuela.
 
Second, oil is primary and democracy is secondary. After the presidential elections in Venezuela in 2018, a sanctions policy led by the US was enforced on Maduro’s cabinet members for rigging elections. Venezuela was primarily isolated in the Americas. However, the joint venture between Chevron and PDVSA in oil production continued. The joint venture is set to expire on 1 December and the tight oil market might nudge Biden to cooperate with Venezuela while Maduro agrees to provide constructive steps in conducting elections. Parallelly, the US also restarted talks on Iran's nuclear deal so that, as an outcome, Iranian oil in the global market could offset the shortage caused by disruptions in oil supplies due to conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
 
Third, Biden’s climate change promise and upcoming mid-term election. When Biden was elected as the President, he announced that the US would re-join the Paris Climate Agreement. Since then, Joe Biden has taken several steps to curb domestic fossil fuel production. Stringent climate disclosure rules for the private sector and environmental regulations have affected the growth of fossil fuel-based energy production. However, the approval rating of Joe Biden has dropped way below the 50 per cent mark and any positive news on easing of oil supplies from outside will help the US populace and Joe Biden in long term.
 
Fourth, contracting the US economy and geopolitics. Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the US has imposed sanctions on Russia’s oil and gas business. The West, led by the US, has been hit by disruptions in oil supplies and that problem is further complemented by recessionary trends across the world as all central banks have been raising interest rates to cool off demand while supply stabilizes. The recalibration of supply chain networks which might result in ousting of Russian oil and gas stakes needs further support from outliers and hence the US is courting dictatorial regimes like Venezuela.

What does it mean?
First, challenges to sanctions policy. The US is in the concessionary corner now and that might give space for dictatorial regimes like Venezuela and Iran to wait further and seek maximum concessions. The sanctions policy has proven to be temporary and it might mean more than just sanctions to bring everyone on board to ensure a global recovery from the pandemic-induced disruptions. This will make the fiscal challenges for developing economies far worse as they would have to pay for uncertain import energy bills for a longer time.
 
Second, higher credit bills and mortgage rates will push lower-income families in the US to pay for higher bills and subsequently higher guarantee from the US federal reserve to remain the leader in driving market-led development and growth. The soft landing of the economy may remain a distant dream for the US for now. The alliances of the west may become more de-hyphenated as oil economies, most of them dictatorial, will not concede to the larger policy perspective of the US in the current development paradigm.
 
Third, the US might have to release more reserves from its strategic petroleum reserves until the oil dictators come in confidence with restoring supply chain disruptions. That will make the US more prone to any global disruptions and it will cause a blood bath in markets based on the speculative practices in the market.

OPEC: The curious case of OPEC's production cuts 
 
What happened?
On 5 October, the 13 members of the Organisation of Petrol Exporting Countries (OPEC) and 10 allies of the group forming the OPEC+, which includes Russia, met in Vienna to drop oil production quantities by two million barrels per day (bpd). Producing about 30 per cent of the world’s crude oil, this decision comes as the world grapples with an undersupply of oil by 1 million barrels per day and creates a tight supply of oil to the West which is already sifting through an energy crisis. 
 
“A recession is one of the challenges we are looking at. We all know a recession affects supply and demand,” UAE’s Energy Minister Mazrouei said, and said that economic stressors were the key reason why the agency decided to cut production. The oil quota reduction came as a surprise to the West as they warned the organisation against such drastic measures, but the meeting offered no resolve to countries like the US, the UK, and the EU. 
 
The OPEC defended its stance to say that the cuts were not meant to pit one country against another, but was a “pre-emptive measure”. Citing that the move was necessary, the decision was met with criticism by the US which said that OPEC was "aligning” with Russia. This decision was also considered a blow to the European Union, as sanctions on Russian crude oil and oil production are set to take effect starting in December. This said that OPEC+ does not target pricing but strikes “a balance in supply and demand.”

What is the background?
First, the evolution of the organization. The OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmental organisation created at the Baghdad Conference in 1960, and was initially a five-member organisation, including Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela. Later joined by eight others, and other non-OPEC allies, the OPEC was formed to stabilise oil pricing and strengthen oil production in the global market.  The OPEC sees prominence in the control of domestic petroleum, and battled excessive volatility in the 1980s and 1990s, with the Southeast Asian economic downturn and economic recession. The OPEC strives to string a well-oiled supply of crude oil to the market and has developed as an essential organisation over the years. The OPEC, however, has a history of battling with the West regarding its pricing and oil policies. 
 
Second, significance of the recent decision to reduce production. OPEC nations, along with Russia, produce over 10 million barrels per day and add a great deal to the demand and supply of the global market. The OPEC deals strongly with the US dollar, as oil production and crude oil are dominated by the currency. OPEC’s decision to cut output by 2 million barrels per day comes at a time when the global market seeks saving from inflationary rises and high pricing, leading to an extensive dependency on short-term energy services. 
 
Third, implications for the US. The US is grappling with soaring interest rates and President Joe Biden’s campaign for mid-term elections long-standing assurance of capping oil prices. The refinery issues plague the West coast and Midwest putting the US in a considerably stiff position, where the US already sees an undersupply of oil. The country’s dependence on Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPRs) leads to a concerted decline in its overall reserves and leaves a depleting graph for the US to work with.  
 
Fourth, implications for Russia. Russia seeks to increase prices while maintaining a balanced output as it already produces over 9.9 million barrels per day, short of its 11 million barrels per day. The undersupply sees a larger output for Russia to work with, with sanctions on the country coming to effect later this year. The country is speculated to side with Saudi Arabia against the US, the New York Times reported. This move could mean the alignment of the two against the West’s concerted efforts to restrict Russian oil. 
 
Fifth, implications for the global market. OPEC’s move highlights the increasing rates of inflation, consumer prices and intensive political tensions as the EU’s position in the global economy recedes with the quick transitory trends of the energy sector. The reduction in oil would create divisions between EU leaders over capping oil prices and fighting over the lack of fuel. The decision comes as a forecasting warning to the energy security crisis that the EU could face in the winter, and lead to a larger economic problem of juggling between consumption, saving and selling of oil. This comes as a shock to India as well, with the freezing price of petrol and diesel seeing a potential rise, with producers forgoing their previous small profits of INR 5 before the decision came out. The underlying realisation of this decision lies at the overall scenario of the world economy as it strikes against unsustainable energy budgets, implications of a stronger dollar, and the economic risks of selling assets.

What does it mean?
For the US, the cut could lead to a reproaching of a kind, with the US seeking Venezuela and Iran out of its ‘pariah’ state and looking for sustainable options to produce its own domestic oil. For Russia, there is no reduction in output as part of the production cut decision by OPEC, rather it sees a slight balance in its reach. For the global market, the decision would incite a lower energy demand in the long term, with consumers seeking less energy-consuming services in the future.

Trade and Statistics Outlook 2022-23: Four takeaways
By Madhura Mahesh 

On 5 October, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) released its Trade Statistics and Outlook for the year 2022-2023. The report emphasises the impact of the global economic slowdown on global merchandise trade. The WTO has expressed its concerns that a global trade slowdown can have direct consequences on inflation, the standard of living and economic growth. The report also highlights that with a decrease in the volume of trade, the value of trade has increased due to high prices.

Four takeaways
First, the report provides a revised projection for 2022 and 2023. The projection of the global merchandise trade growth rate for 2022 is 3.5 per cent and 1.0 per cent for 2023 which previously was set at 3.4 per cent. Similarly, the world GDP at market exchange rates is expected to rise by 2.8 per cent in 2022 and 2.3 per cent in 2023 which was previously set at 3.2 per cent. The reasons for this revision have been attributed to high energy prices, inflation, and the Russia-Ukraine war.
 
Second, there is a direct impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on global trade. The data shows that the war has had a direct effect on the prices of crucial commodities. In August global energy prices had risen by 78 per cent year-on-year, grain prices had risen by 15 per cent year-on-year and wheat prices had risen by 18 per cent. Prices of fertilisers had also risen by 60 per cent year-on-year which raises concerns for future crop yields and their effect on a potential increase in food insecurity.
 
Third, global trade experienced different gains and losses in different regions. In 2022 the Middle East saw the largest increase in both export and import trade. Export trade grew by 14.6 per cent and import trade grew by 11.1 per cent. The CIS region or Eastern Europe and Asia saw a huge contraction in both export and import trade in 2022. Export trade grew by -5.8 per cent and import trade grew by -24.7 per cent. This has been attributed to the sanctions placed on Russia, which these countries depend upon for trade infrastructure.
 
Fourth, there are three factors which can change these figures. WTO has identified three main factors which have the potential to change these figures. First is the interest rate manipulation by central banks. This is done to control inflation but if it goes too far it can induce a recession and affect imports and investments. Second is the intensification of the Russia-Ukraine war which can disrupt the global economy. The third is the dissociation of major economies from the global supply chain. This can happen when countries decide to decrease the production of goods which will increase supply scarcity.

Also, in the news... 
Regional round-ups

East and Southeast Asia This Week
China: UN Human Right Council rejects proposal to hold debate on Xinjiang
On 6 October, the United Nations Human Rights Council rejected a motion to hold a debate on the alleged violation of the minority community in Xinjiang, China. The proposal to hold the debate was initiated by the US, Canada, Turkey and Britain. However, 17 countries voted in favour of the proposal, 19 voted against while 11 abstained from voting. The vote resulted in a victory for China while political analysts believe that the decision is a setback to the accountability efforts and moral compass of the West. The council has only rejected one other proposal in its 16-year history until the Xinjiang debate. The President of the World Uighur Congress Dolkun Isa expressed his disappointment with the council’s decision and said that he had hoped the Muslim countries would act to help the Uighur community.
 
China: Oxfam reports dramatic increase in financial inequality in Hong Kong
On 5 October, Oxfam, an international charitable organization, reported that the inequality had dramatically worsened in Hong Kong during the coronavirus pandemic. The report explained that the richest households in the city now make 47 times more than the poorest families. The figures indicate a sharp incline from the pre-pandemic times when the richest families made 34 times more than the poorest. The report also highlighted that one out of four Hong Kongers were unemployed in 2022 and 1.09 million out of the 7.3 million people in the city were economically inactive. A significant part of this group is made of the elderly who have no financial support.
 
Taiwan: President Tsai Ing-wen says that country will defend itself and not rely on others
On 6 October, Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen virtually addressed the Global Taiwan Institute think tank in the US and said that the country would not depend on any country for its defence. During her speech, she first appreciated and thanked the US administration for upholding the US commitment to Taiwan’s security and the recent arms sale. She then said: “But we will not depend on others to come to our own defence. That is why I want to reiterate that Taiwan is fully committed to protecting our security and maintaining our democratic way of life. We're also working to adapt our defence strategy to the changing threats we face."
 
Philippines: Marco plans to seek Russia help for the fuel needs of the country.
On 6 October, President Ferdinand Marcos said the nation may need to turn to fulfill its fuel needs amid rising global energy prices, bucking pressure from Western allies for countries to shun Moscow. He further said the Philippines may also deal with Russia for the supply of fertilizer. The comments, which Marcos made during an address at the Manila Overseas Press Club, are the latest sign that the Philippines is prioritizing its domestic economic situation over the international campaign to isolate the Russian government for its invasion of Ukraine. 

South Asia This Week
India: Free Trade Agreement with the UK
On 4 October, the Home Secretary of the UK during an interview with Spectator (a British magazine) addressed the issue of FTA with India. She said: “I have concerns about having an open borders migration policy with India because I don’t think that’s what people voted for with Brexit,” She added: “I do have some reservations. Look at migration in this country — the largest group of people who overstay are Indian migrants. We even reached an agreement with the Indian government last year to encourage and facilitate better co-operation in this regard. It has not necessarily worked very well,” India and the UK are working towards signing the FTA.
 
Sri Lanka: UNHRC resolution adopted
On 6 October, the UNHRC adopted a resolution on Sri Lanka titled “Promoting reconciliation, accountability and human rights in Sri Lanka.” Twenty countries voted for the resolution, twenty countries abstained from the voting and seven countries voted against the resolution. China and Pakistan were among the countries against the resolution. India, Nepal, Qatar, and Japan abstained from voting. Countries that voted for the resolution include the UK, the US, Argentina, Finland, France, Germany, Mexico, the Netherlands, Paraguay, Poland, and the Republic of Korea.
 
Afghanistan: UNDP releases annual report on the economic situation
On 7 October, the United Nations Development Program released a new report on Afghanistan’s economic situation titled “One Year in Review: Afghanistan Since August 2021.” The report stated that the already-declining Afghan economy lost nearly USD five billion after August 2021 and is reversing “in 12 months what had taken 10 years to accumulate.” Following the release of the report, the Assistant Secretary-General and Director of the Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific said that even before the Taliban’s takeover, Afghanistan had a small economy of USD 20 billion, saying: “What was already a very small economy. If you think about pre-Taliban, it still was a $20 billion economy but then in a year though, lost about $5 billion.”
 
Pakistan: COAS Gen Bajwa meets with US Defence Secretary
On 5 October, Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa met with US Defence Secretary Lloyd J. Austin, National Security Adviser Jacob Sullivan and other officials during his five-day visit to the United States. During the meeting, matters of mutual interest, regional security and bilateral cooperation in various fields were discussed. A statement released by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said: “Both sides had convergence on major international issues, including Afghan­istan,” and also on the “need for cooperation to avoid humanitarian crisis and improving peace and stability in the region.” Meanwhile, Secretary Austin via Twitter said: “This year marks the 75th anniversary of relations between the U.S. and Pakistan. It was my pleasure to host Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, to the Pentagon where we discussed our long-standing defence partnership and areas of mutual interest.”

Central Asia, Middle East and Africa This Week
Armenia-Azerbaijan: Leaders agree to a civilian EU mission along the border
On 7 October, the European Council stated that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met with European Union Council President Charles Michel and President Emmanuel Macron along the sidelines of the European Political Community in Prague. During the meeting, the two Caucasian leaders agreed to a civilian EU mission alongside their common border. According to the council, the civilian EU mission will start later in October and would continue for a period of two months. Additionally, the next meeting of a border delimitation commission will take place in Brussels by the end of October.
 
Oman: Jordanian Foreign Minister follows up on recent talk with King Abdullah
On 5 October, Jordan and Oman’s foreign ministers met at Muscat to follow up on the recent talks between King Abdullah of Jordan and Sultan Haitham-bin-Tariq al-Said of Oman. The two ministers discussed the important bilateral concerns and signed agreements on higher education, scientific research and innovation for the period 2023-25, and signed a tourism cooperation agreement for the period 2023-26. They also discussed the preparations for the Jordanian-Omani Joint Higher Committee meeting to be held in Amman in 2023.
 
Iran: More US sanctions imposed following Mahsa Amini’s death and curbing protests
On 6 October, the Biden administration has issued more sanctions against Iran officials over the suppression of protests in the country following Mahsa Amini’s death in police custody. The new sanctions target Iran’s interior minister Ahmad Vahidi, communications minister Eisa Zarepur, and head of Iranian cyber police force Vahid Mohammad Naser Majid. The US Treasury official Brian Nelson said that “the rights to freedom of expression and of peaceful assembly are vital to guaranteeing individual liberty and dignity.”
 
Africa: Ukraine foreign minister begins 10-day tour
On 3 October, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba commenced his 10-day tour in Africa after he met Senegal's President, who is also the Chairperson of the African Union, Macky Sall and Foreign Minister Aissata Tall Sall. Kuleba said Ukraine will try its best to export grain to Africa to ensure food security. The visit comes months after Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov conducted an Africa tour. The New York Times quoted Kuleba: "Russian narrative has been very present here...Now it’s time for Ukrainian truths."
 
Burkina Faso: Traore appointed as new president
On 5 October, Captain Ibrahim Traore was appointed as the president days after he overthrew Lt Col Paul-Henri Damiba on 30 September. The spokesperson for the military government announced the appointment and said that Traore would be the “guarantor of national independence, territorial integrity... and continuity of the State." Prior to this, on 4 October, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) held a meeting with Traore and other leaders, wherein the latter said the meeting was held to “make contact with the new transition authorities.”
 
Ethiopia: Government and TPLF accept invitation for peace talks
On 5 October, the National Security Adviser to the Prime Minister said the government had accepted the African Union’s invitation for peace talks on the conflict in Tigray. The spokesperson said the invitation met the principles of peaceful resolutions and the government's demands of holding talks without preconditions. Similarly, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) leader said the group would send negotiators to the talks but enquired about the participants, observers and guarantors.

Europe and The Americas This Week
Europe: The European Commission imposes energy price cap along with the G7
On 5 October, the European Commission imposed a ban to import Russian oil through tankers from 05 December 2022 to 05 February 2023. It will be applicable only to the EU member states along with the G7 countries. Greece, Cyprus and Malta, which are known for having huge tanker shipping, will be allowed to transport under the given price cap. The rule will also apply to the EU ships operating overseas in Panama or Liberia to abide by the price limit. Although the price is yet to be finalised, it is expected that it would not be lesser than the amount before the invasion began. Another issue is Balkan states and Serbia which does not have a seaport, imports Russian oil through Croatia, the EU is yet be decide if it can allow the exports. However, oil exported through pipeline will not be come under the price cap, this is beneficial especially for Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia.
 
Latvia: New Unity party win for the second time in 2022 elections
On 2 October, the New Unity party was declared winner by the Central Election Commission upon the majority of votes in the Saeima elections. On 01 October, 14th parliamentary elections were held in Latvia to elect the leader and the Members of Parliament. In total 19 political parties competed in the election with at least 1800 candidates running for four-year term, out of 1800, 100 members will be elected by the people. The parties include, New Unity, Union of Greens and Farmers, National Alliance, Socialist Democratic Party “Harmony” and United List are some of the parties contesting the election.
 
The UK: Government withdraws the tax cuts plan
On 3 October 2022, The Chancellor of Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng announced that the government is scrapping the 45 per cent rate of income tax on income over GBP 150,000 tax-cut plan in response to widespread criticism. On 26 September, the pound fell to USD 1.03 as a response to the growth plan announced on 23 September and investors started to demand a high rate of interest. On 23 September, Kwarteng proposed the "Growth Plan" to the parliament to pull up the declining British economy to help address inflation, helping the public tackle the cost-of-living crisis, and helping businesses. 
 
Europe: Member-states submit proposal to impose sanctions on Iran for violent action against growing protests
On 03 October, new proposals were submitted to the EU to impose sanctions against Iran for its violent response to the ongoing protests. Germany, France, Denmark, Spain, Italy, and the Czech Republic have put forth 16 proposals for new sanctions which are said to target institutions and individuals primarily involved in the suppression of the protests. These proposals will be discussed by the EU foreign ministers on 17 October. Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called the crackdown due to the fear of the power of education and freedom. She also expressed the limitations of their actions in a tweet which said, "It is also difficult to bear that our foreign policy options are limited. But we can amplify their voice, create publicity, bring charges and sanction. And that we are doing." These protests erupted nationwide due to the death of women in police custody over the issue of hijab. 

Brazil: Bolsonaro and Lula focus on economic policies as race to president intensifies
On 6 October, Brazil president Jair Bolsonaro announced a tax dividends and debt pardon owed by 4 million Brazilians and 4000 companies. His challenger Lula has also in the past questioned the ceiling gap on spending by federal government for welfare programs. There is a constitutional cap on spending by federal government which has been challenged by both Bolsonaro and Lula.
 
Haiti: UN calls for ‘humanitarian corridor’ amid fuel and food shortage
On 6 October, UN called for the creation of ‘humanitarian corridor’ to allow distribution of fuel and food supplies amid a gang blockade of country’s primary fuel terminal. Haiti also faces a shortage of water while there is a cholera outbreak prevalent in the country. US lawmakers has demanded that the USA should sanction Haitian gangs and those who help finance them.
 
The US: Biden administration announces new export curbs on Chinese access to US semiconductors
On 8 October, Biden administration announced new export curbs to cut off China’s access to high-tech US semiconductors, in its latest move to stymie Beijing’s efforts to develop the country’s chip industry and military technology. The US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) said the new rules are aimed at restricting China’s ability to “obtain advanced computing chips, develop and maintain supercomputers, and manufacture advanced semiconductors”.
 
The US: DARPA’s new POWER program unveiled
On 6 October, the Air Recognition defence daily reported on Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) forays into wireless energy project called Persistent Optical Wireless Energy Relay (POWER). The power is an airborne optical energy relay project which is like internet for the energy. The POWER project will be useful for ground-based laser systems, multi-path wireless networks and increase endurance of drones on surveillance missions.

The US: Lockheed and Thales to build advanced missile manufacturing capabilities for Australia
On 4 October, Lockheed Martin along with Raytheon and French defence firm Thales announced a sovereign missile project which will manufacture and transfer to Australia same level of technology and development and advanced programs in cruise missile manufacturing like Hellfire and Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM).
 
The US: THOR-ER achieves important milestone
On 5 October, US department of Defense gave a press release notifying on THOR-ER program, a collaborative effort between the USA and Norway to develop a solid fuel ramjet vehicle (SFRJ). The test vehicle successfully fired several times, showing the viability of ramjet propulsion technology and demonstrating significant increase in effective range. Ramjet technology is useful in developing technologies applicable to long range high speed and hypersonic weapons.

About the authors
Ankit Singh, Harini Madhusudan and Rashmi Ramesh are PhD Scholars in the School of Conflict and Security Studies at the National Institute of Advanced Studies. Avishka Ashok, Apoorva Sudhakar, Padmashree Anandhan, Rishma Banerjee, Sai Pranav, and Anu Maria are Research Associates at NIAS. Bhoomika Sesharaj and Madhura Mahesh are research interns at NIAS. 


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Nishchal N Pandey & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)
Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)
An Illegitimate Regimes Consolidation Game
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2055

Haans J Freddy

East Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Chinas military operations near Taiwan, Japan-China tensions and South Koreas security challenges
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

Chinas External Landscape (Jan-Mar 2026):
Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

The United States(Jan-Mar2026)
Tariffs, Ukraine, Iran and Operationalization of Trumps World Order
March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting
Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?
March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:
Five major challenges for the new government
March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War
UNSC Resolution 2817 between Clear and Unified Message and Manifest Injustice
March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

Chinas Two Sessions 2026
New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget
March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
March 2026 | CWA # 2012

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Long-range strikes, Defence adaptation and the EUs energy dependence
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026
The Rise of the New and the Fall of the Old
March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The Forgotten South Sudan Conflict
Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modis Visit to Israel
From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership
February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover
PR Commentary
February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan
The return of Basant, and what it signifies
February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria
US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency
February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine
The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26
Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China
Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
PR Explainer
November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US
A New opening, or another cycle?
February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China
PM Keir Starmers visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties
TWTW Note
January 2026 | CWA # 1946

R Preetha

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1709

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #284-285
Cambodia-Thailand Border Tensions, Protests in the US, and the Indigenous Māori question in New Zealand
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1672

D Suba Chandran

India and Pakistan:
De-escalation and the “New Normal”
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan