CW Column: Conflicts in Africa

CWA # 1951
CW Column: Conflicts in Africa
Africa: Renewed violence in Ethiopia and a Jihadist attack in Niger
Conflict Weekly 317, 30 January 2026, Vol 7, No. 4

Anu Maria Joseph
31 January 2026

Photo Source:

What happened this week?
1. Ethiopia
On 29 January, Al Jazeera reported clashes between the Ethiopian federal forces and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) in the Tigray region. The fighting broke out in Tsemlet, in western Tigray, which has been claimed by forces from the neighbouring Amhara region.  Following renewed clashes, flights to the region were suspended. Al Jazeera quoted the security sources: “The situation appears to be deteriorating."

2. Niger
On 29 January, the BBC reported that a jihadist group attacked the Diori Hamani International Airport outside Niger's capital, Niamey. According to Niger's Ministry of Defence, four military personnel were injured, and 20 attackers were killed. Military leader General Abdourahamane Tiani stated: "We commend all the defence and security forces... as well as Russian partners who defended their security sector with professionalism." On the same day, Niger's military government accused France, Benin and the Ivory Coast of supporting the assault on the airport. Tiani stated: “We have heard them bark, they should be ready to hear us roar."

What are the issues?
1. Ethiopia’s Tigray problem, renewed conflict and worsening humanitarian crisis
Ethiopia's Tigray problem has been ongoing since 2021. The one-year conflict between the TPLF and the federal forces during 2021-2022 killed more than 600,000 people. The conflict began when Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018, ending the TPLF's decades of political domination. TPLF accused Abiy's administration of marginalising the Tigray community and the region. The tensions escalated into violent conflict when TPLF attacked the Northern Command headquarters of the federal forces. The conflict ended with the November 2022 Pretoria Peace Agreement.

However, despite the agreement, Tigray remained fragile due to several disagreements, the lack of full implementation of the peace agreement, and post-agreement violence. Only half of the 2.1 million IDPs have returned. WFP reported that because of the budget cuts related to the USAID blockade, WFP has closed its office in the Shire region, which hosts the largest number of IDPs. According to the WFP, 80 per cent of the population needs emergency support.

Meanwhile, the post-agreement initiatives of the Abiy administration triggered ethnic violence across other regions, including Amhara and Oromia. The skirmishes began after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed demanded all ethnic militias, including Amhara’s Fano militia, Tigray’s TPLF and Oromo’s Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), to be integrated into the Ethiopian federal force following the Tigray peace agreement. In early 2025, internal divisions within the TPLF were reported regarding the interim administration of Tigray, leading to a brief instance of violence in Mekelle in March 2025.

Recently, the tensions have been increasing in the contested area of Tselemti in western Tigray ahead of the June general elections. According to the BBC report, the armed forces from Amhara occupied the Tselemti region, which became the source of the renewed conflict.

2. Niger’s growing jihadist violence and external tensions
Niger is ranked fifth in the Global Terrorism Index 2025 after Burkina Faso, Pakistan, Syria and Mali. According to ACLED, attacks by jihadist groups linked to al-Qaeda and Islamic State have killed nearly 2,000 people in Niger in 2025. The jihadist attacks in Niger increased after the military coup in 2023. During 2023-2025, Niger's military forced out the French and the US troops, which were helping in combating jihadists, citing years of failure. Meanwhile, Niger, along with other neighbouring military-run governments from Burkina Faso and Mali, formed the Alliance of Sahel states and recently announced the creation of a 5000-member force for joint military operations. The airport, which was attacked, is the headquarters of the joint force.

In 2024, Russia emerged as a new security partner following the withdrawal of the French and the US from the region. Ever since the coup and Russia's entry, Niger's relations with France have strained. The military claims that Western powers, especially France, want to destabilise and interfere in the country's internal affairs. Additionally, the military accuses Benin and the Ivory Coast of hosting foreign intelligence and hostile foreign troops. While the military has accused France, the Ivory Coast and Benin of sponsoring the jihadist attack on the airport without any evidence to back the claims, there are no official responses from the countries.

What does it mean?
In Ethiopia, the new wave of violence has triggered fear of a resurgence of violent conflict after three years of fragile peace. While the key issues related to the peace deal, Tigray administration, integration of ethnic armed forces, territorial disputes and tensions between and within ethnic factions persist, Tigray and regions around are prone to recurrent violent ethnic conflicts and resurgence of another civil conflict.

In Niger, ever since the coup, the military government has shifted from Western alliances towards a non-interference-based Russian alliance. However, the security situation has steadily worsened after the coup. The attack on the airport reflects increasing vulnerability to the expanding insurgency, tensions with France and the neighbouring countries and a major regional challenge to the Sahel Alliance.

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