CW Column: Conflicts in the Middle East

CWA # 1952
CW Column: Conflicts in the Middle East
US threats against Iran, and Phase Two operations in Gaza
Conflict Weekly 317, 30 January 2026, Vol 7, No. 4

Brighty Ann Sarah
31 January 2026

Photo Source:

What happened this week?
1. Iran
On 29 January, according to media reports, the US was considering measures against Iran, including targeted strikes on security forces and leadership aimed at inspiring protesters and initiating regime change. On 28 January, Trump reiterated his warning: “A massive Armada is heading to Iran…. Like with Venezuela, it is ready, willing and able to rapidly fulfil its mission, with speed and violence, if necessary.” He demanded that Iran agree to a “NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS” deal.

Earlier, on 24 January, Iran’s top military official responded to Trump's warnings, stating that any attack would be treated "as an all-out war against us," adding that "our military is ready for the worst-case scenario.”

On 23 January, the US Department of the Treasury imposed sanctions on nine vessels known as Iran's shadow fleet and eight related firms that transport and trade Iranian oil and petroleum products to foreign markets. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the “critical component of how Iran generates the funds used to repress its own people.

2. Gaza
On 22 January, the US presented development plans for “New Gaza,” rebuilt from scratch, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. The reconstruction efforts are set to start from Rafah. On the same day, the US-backed Palestinian technocrat leader announced that the Rafah crossing between Egypt and Gaza would open in the upcoming week.

On 23 January, an exclusive Reuters report revealed that Israel seeks to restrict the number of Palestinians entering Gaza through the Rafah crossing, with the aim of ensuring that more people leave the territory than enter it.

On 27 January, Gaza’s Hamas-run government urged its civil servants and security personnel to cooperate with the 15-member National Committee for the Administration of Gaza (NCAG).

On 28 January, the US informed the UN Security Council that the demilitarization of Gaza will include decommissioning weapons through an agreed process "supported by an internationally funded buyback" program, suggesting that Hamas members would be given funds or jobs in exchange for surrendering their weapons.

What are the issues?
1. Iran: Trump’s shifting goal posts and escalating uncertainty
Trump’s initial warnings of military action against Iran were framed around the killing of protesters and assurances of US support. However, the latest remarks signal a clear shift toward targeting Tehran’s nuclear programme, with negotiations conditioned on a permanent halt to uranium enrichment, new restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile programme, and an end to support for regional proxy groups.

2. Gaza: Ambiguities over the “limited opening” and broader questions over “New Gaza”
Despite the return of all hostages and their remains, the Rafah crossing remains tightly restricted and heavily surveilled. While Egypt had earlier stressed that the crossing would reopen only if both entry into and exit from Gaza were ensured, PM Netanyahu has stated that only around 50 Gazans will be permitted to re-enter the enclave per day. This prioritisation of outward movement over return risks concentrating populations in southern Gaza, with the establishment of camps around Rafah potentially resulting in the forced settlement of civilians in the area.

As the second phase advances, pressure on Hamas to disarm has also intensified. Washington oscillates between threats of total military annihilation to offering amnesty and buy-back programmes to influence fighters to surrender their weapons. Although Hamas has expressed openness to disarmament talks, the viability of their disarmament while the core demands of full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and recognition of Palestinian statehood remain unmet is uncertain. Further, Hamas’ demands for the 10000-member police force to be integrated into the (NCAG) directly contradicts the provisions of Trump’s Board of Peace, which prohibits “foreign terrorist organizations” from participating in governance.

The “New Gaza” initiative centres on ambitious urban redevelopment, as the US “Master Plan” map designates areas for coastal tourism featuring high-rise towers, residential districts, industrial complexes, data centres, advanced manufacturing hubs and other facilities. While the reconstruction strategy seeks to attract large-scale private investment, with the US government committing 20 per cent, it largely sidesteps immediate rehabilitation needs, questions of property rights and compensation and arrangements for displaced Palestinians during rebuilding. In this sense, the initiative closely echoes the ethos of Trump’s earlier vision of transforming Gaza into a “Riviera of the Middle East.”

What does it mean?
For Iran, the new wave of confrontations indicates Washington’s attempts to escalate the threat perception to coerce negotiations. The imminent US strike threat is likely to weaken the already fragile political ecosystem, forcing Tehran to balance internal stability. Another flare-up of domestic protests and crackdowns could trigger US action, justified as intervention.

For Gaza, phase two advancement leaves fundamental questions unresolved. While Hamas faces mounting pressure to demilitarise, its demands remain unaddressed, adding to the uncertainty over the process. The Rafah crossing’s continued “limited opening” undermines the return of Palestinians, as the reconstruction plans prioritise investment potential over humanitarian needs.

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