Conflict Weekly 03

CWA # 213
Conflict Weekly 03
Continuing Violence in Afghanistan, Bodo Peace Accord in Northeast India, Attack on the anti-CAA protesters in Delhi, and Trump's Middle East Peace Plan

IPRI Team
4 February 2020
Photo Source: New York Times

Conflict Weekly, 4 February 2020, Vol.1, No. 3

Amal Anzari, Vaishali Handique, Sukanya Bali and Lakshmi V Menon

SOUTH ASIA

Afghanistan: Continuing Violence

In the news
On 29 January, at least 14 Afghan security forces were killed and several more injured after Taliban fighters attacked security checkpoints in the northern Kunduz province. Eight soldiers and at least four policemen were injured in the overnight assault while three others were taken captive by Taliban fighters. The attack came a day after at least 11 police officers were killed and six others wounded in an attack carried out by the armed group in the capital of Baghlan province.

According to the quarterly report of the Office of the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction that was released on 30 January 2020, attacks by the Taliban and other insurgent groups in Afghanistan reached record-high levels in late 2019 as peace talks between US and Taliban negotiators stalled. During the last three months of 2019, the Taliban and other insurgent groups launched more than 8,200 attacks against Afghan troops, American forces and civilians, which have increased from 6,974 attacks in the same period in 2018. The report also found that attacks launched by the Taliban and other insurgent groups increased by 6 per cent in 2019 from the previous year.

Issues at large 
First, the violence is continuing despite the peace talks between the United States and the Taliban in Doha. A new direction in the peace talks was seen when the Taliban presented a proposal to the US special representative for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad. There was an expectation that it would reduce violence and restart long-stalled peace talks when negotiators met in January. 

Kunduz is among the most volatile provinces in Afghanistan where the Taliban have a considerable presence and regularly carry out attacks against the government forces. The new wave of attacks against Afghan forces comes while Khalilzad is in Brussels to update NATO officials on the recently relaunched United States-Taliban peace talks.

Second, since 2018, the push for peace continues side by side with a spike in violence as the US-backed government and the Taliban have looked to gain negotiating leverage through battlefield gains. Increased violence has resulted in record-high civilian casualties and rising casualties among Afghanistan's security forces. The American military command in Kabul has already begun reducing forces despite stalled talks, bringing US troops in Afghanistan down to 13,000. At the height of the war in 2010 and 2011, there were more than 100,000 US forces in Afghanistan.

In perspective
First, the surge in hostilities signals deadlocks at stop-start peace talks involving US and Taliban negotiators in Doha. Despite a concerted bombing campaign and American-Afghan offensive ground operations, Taliban fighters can attack at levels similar to those a decade ago. It goes to show nothing much has changed, and the war in Afghanistan might not witness a peaceful or complete ceasefire anytime soon.

Second, the Taliban's continued attacks hint at limits of American strategy in Afghanistan. The number of attacks, detailed in the quarterly inspector general report, highlights the disparity between talking points and reality. The increase in violence occurred during a period in which President Trump tweeted that the United States was "hitting our Enemy harder than at any time in the last ten years!"

Third, the Afghan government, so far excluded from the talks, has asked the United States to agree to nothing but an extensive ceasefire. It fears that if the United States signs an initial deal with violence levels reduced only in the cities, the war will continue to rage in the countryside, with casualties being from the Afghan forces and the unsuspecting civilians.


India's Northeast: Historic Bodo Peace Accord signed

In the news
On 27 January, a tripartite peace agreement has been signed between the Government of India, the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) and the All Bodo Students' Union (ABSU). All the four factions of the dreaded military group along with the powerful student union consented to establish a peaceful Bodo territory and work towards the development of their people and region. 

The accord is historic, considering the militant group that associated itself with it. The NDFB is considered to be the most dangerous among the various militant outfits present in the north-eastern region of the country. The accord is supposed to work for the all-round development of the Bodo people, and it grants a sum of ₹ 900 crores. 

Issues at large 
First, the Bodos demanded an independent state with a separate administration. They were sceptical of the continuous influx of migrants from Bangladesh and other parts of India. Their agitation started even before the Assam Andolan (the 1980s) in which they demanded the preservation and security of their culture and people whom they thought would perish over time. 

Second, under the Sixth Schedule of the Indian Constitution, the regions that have the Bodo population are administered right under the Bodoland Territorial Area Districts (BTAD). The schedule protects the regions with special land rights to secure the indigenous communities living within them. The BTAD resulted in a challenging environment for the indigenous non-tribal communities where the latter is also entitled to such rights. 

Third, the issue of the NDFB led to ethnic violence was quite rampant in the Bodo dominated areas in lower Assam. Bengali-speaking Muslim migrant communities were vehemently attacked in 2012 and during the 2014 elections. Adivasi communities also suffered from frequent attacks, the most famous being the December 2014 Assam Violence.

In perspective 
First, the demand for a separate independent state was what drove the Bodo rebels to form a front in the 1980s. They later turned violent as State and the Central Governments neglected their demands. Peace accords were signed earlier as well, the first being the one in 1993 by the All Bodo Students' Union (ABSU) and the Government of India which resulted in the creation of Bodoland Autonomous Council. The second one was signed in 2003 with the Bodoland Liberation Tigers (BLT) which formed the Bodoland Territorial Council with four districts under its control. Despite these accords, the insurgency issue was not resolved and frequent ethnic attacks which the tribal Bodo rebels wedged on the non-tribal ones continued to take place. 

Second, the peace accord entails a ray of hope for the people of the BTAD as well as Assam to put an end on all the violence and unrest which has taken the lives of many over the last three decades. The Bodo community hopes that the accord will provide them with solutions to their long-pending issues and stop all the militant-led violence in the region which they claim to have disturbed the development of the same.

Third, though their demand for a separate state within the territory of India remains unaddressed till now, the members of the banned outfit unwaveringly look forward to a developed Bodo region. It is well understood that the Central Government cannot fulfil all the demands and will negotiate for a middle-line. 

The only question which can be posed is that whether this peace accord will be a total success or will it lose its momentum over time, like the previous ones, in the view of few remaining unfulfilled political demands of the tribal community? Nonetheless, the accord promises with the set up of multiple central universities and medical institutes in the region along with factories and sports facilities to generate employment. This is indeed a great achievement for northeast India as it will pose as a flag bearer of similar peace accords in the near future.

 

New Delhi: Shooting in an anti-CAA rally

In the news 
On 30 January, a 17-year-old fired at a group of anti-CAA protestors while shouting "yeh lo aazadi" and "long live Delhi police", outside Jamia Milia Islamia University, New Delhi. Before joining the protest, the gunman on his social media account had posted messages stating 'Game Over, Shaheen Bagh' and 'wrap me in saffron on my last journey'. 

Issues at large
The anti-CAA protests have been continuing in Delhi. With election schedule for New Delhi, where the BJP and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) are fighting for the State, the anti-CAA protests, and the responses against the same have become a political rallying point.

Last week, Anurag Thakur,  the Union Minister of State, encouraged supporters at an election rally in Rithala to chant slogans such as, 'shoot the traitors'. Several critiqued the incumbent minister, for inciting. Later, the Election Commission barred the minister from campaigning for three days. 

For the BJP, winning Delhi assembly is crucial now. The party though has a majority of 303 seats in the Parliament, faced setbacks in Jharkhand and Maharashtra state elections in 2019. With the upcoming elections on 08 February, the party is looking at defeating the AAP and also arrest its losing streak in the state elections. 
On one hand, the BJP ensured its Hindu majority vote bank by ending Triple Talaq, revoking Article 370 and introducing CAA. AAP leaders, on the other hand, announced policies in public health care, infrastructure and education sector, also by providing free electricity, water supply to weaker sections and free travel for women passengers in public transport.

In perspective
The shooting at the anti-CAA protest has led to further agitation, especially the students from universities nationwide. It also marks the continuation of violence by the supporters of the CAA against those who oppose. A few weeks earlier, there was violence inside the campus at Jawaharlal Nehru University in New Delhi.

Second, the protest and the support for the CAA is being interpreted as being patriotic or otherwise. The support for and against the CAA has become a political issue now, and in Delhi, also an electoral one.

MIDDLE EAST
Trump's Middle East plan gains mixed responses

In the news
On 28 January 2020, while Donald Trump unveiled the much-awaited Trump-Jared "deal of the century" in the presence of a beaming proud Benjamin Netanyahu. Palestinians, who boycotted the event, strongly rejected the deal with "the day of rage". Netanyahu applauded the peace proposal as the "opportunity of the century" and Mahmoud Abbas, head of Palestinian Authority, called it "the slap of the century". Although the Arab League rejected the plan, individual Middle Eastern states mainly gave a muted response to Trump's proposal.

Issues at large
First, strong rejection from Palestinians despite Trump's proposal of a two-state solution, stems from the indifference the plan shows to Palestinian stance and demands. Any plan that is unacceptable to the Palestinians, the conflict's primary affected, will not yield prolonged and sustainable negative peace, let alone positive peace.

Second, intra-Palestinian problems like the divides amid Palestinian Authority and the lack of a political voice for the Palestinians further challenge conflict resolution. Intifadas were proof that PLO and Hamas do not represent the collective voice of the Palestinians.

Third, the Arab divide jeopardizes the Palestinian cause. With the presence of ambassadors of Oman, Bahrain and UAE for the unveiling of the plan, Qatar hailing US's mediation efforts, Jordan's muted response, acclaiming of Trump's efforts by Egypt and Saudi Arabia; Turkey and Iran as the only states spearheading for the Palestinians, schisms in the Middle Eastern stance are apparent. However, Arab leaders have refrained from overt backing of the deal.

Fourth, despite Israel's agreed four-year land freeze, it emerges victorious. The country's acceptance of the plan that recognizes Jordan valley, Jerusalem and settlements as contiguous Israeli territory upholding military supervision of Israel as a national security issue is a no brainer. 

Fifth, a demilitarized future state of Palestine is a proposition that will surely be refuted by the Palestinian Authority. Sixth, the muted responses from the international community. The UK voiced a warm response, Putin chose to reserve his judgement, EU gave a bland reaction stating it would assess and study the proposal, Germany and France spoke of a negotiated two-state solution. Lack of uproar is noteworthy. 

In perspective
The complete absence of Palestinians from the negotiation table dwindles the peace proposal into a power preservation attempt by a President facing impeachment trial and a prime minister facing corruption indictment. Bereft concessions to Palestinians, this proposal will enter the long list of failed attempts for peace. Recognition of statehood of Palestine is the need of the hour. Insufficient as it may be, the current plan must be used as a starting point for further negotiation by Palestinians. Point of interest is the lack of Palestinian turn out for "the day of rage". It may indicate the Palestinian population's willingness to settle for this limited peace and desire of normalcy after the decades-long struggle.

With the foundering of the peace processes starting from 1949, the relevance of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is waning for the world at large. The region wishes to move on and not jeopardize the budding Arab-Israeli peace in the name of Palestine. The unprecedented rapprochement is a direct result of Arab states like UAE and Saudi considering Iran as an existential threat and Israel (Iran's enemy) an expedient ally. 

Unusual for the region, politics has moved beyond religion and ideology. Nevertheless, in the current scenario, the conflict will endure and clashes will peak. 

Conflict Weekly is an academic initiative to follow conflicts and peace processes around the world. The Weekly is a part of research at the International Peace Research Initiative (IPRI) at ISSSP in NIAS.


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Lekshmi MK

CW Note
January 2026 | CWA # 1941

Brighty Ann Sarah

Conflict Weekly
January 2026 | CWA # 1940

IPRI Team

TWTW Note
January 2026 | CWA # 1939

Lekshmi MK

CW Note
January 2026 | CWA # 1937

Anu Maria Joseph

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1930

Aparna A Nair

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1914

Preetha Renganarayanan

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1913

Rohini Reenum

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1912

Lekshmi MK

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1911

Swati Sood

State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1905

Femy Francis

State of Peace and Conflict 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1902

Brighty Ann Sarah

State of Peace and Conflict 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1893

Lekshmi MK

State of Peace and Conflict 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1889

Femy Francis

State of Peace and Conflict 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1881

Sunidhi Sampige

China Reader
December 2025 | CWA # 1864

Femy Francis

Ten Takeaways of a SCMP Interview with a former PLA Colonel
TWTW Note
December 2025 | CWA # 1861

Femy Francis

China Reader
CW Column: The Conflicts in The Middle East
November 2025 | CWA # 1859

Brighty Ann Sarah

CW Column: The War in Ukraine
November 2025 | CWA # 1858

Padmashree Anandhan

This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
CW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1712

R Preetha

The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
Conflict Weekly 250th Issue
October 2024 | CWA # 1480

IPRI Team

This Week in History
July 2024 | CWA # 1413

Ramya B

Global Politics Early Bird
May 2024 | CWA # 1336

Femy Francis

This Week in History
April 2024 | CWA # 1275

Ramya B

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
This Week in History
March 2024 | CWA # 1246

Sivasubramanian K

NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Week
November 2023 | CWA # 1148

GP Team

The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
NIAS Pakistan Weekly
October 2023 | CWA # 1087

PR Team

The World This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1083

GP Team

Conflict Weekly
August 2023 | CWA # 1049

IPRI Team

IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
The World This Week
July 2023 | CWA # 1009

GP Team

2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 872

Sapna Elsa Abraham

Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
GLOBAL PROTEST MOVEMENTS
September 2020 | CWA # 337

Anju Annie Mammen

The FATF Meeting, February 2020
February 2020 | CWA # 235

Lakshmi V Menon

Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan
United States
July 2018 | CWA # 47

Rahul Arockiaraj

East Asia
June 2018 | CWA # 26

Siddhatti Mehta