Conflict Weekly 25

CWA # 307
Conflict Weekly 25
Conflict and COVID in J&K, Dispute over constructing a temple in Islamabad, Return of the Indian fishermen into the Sri Lankan Waters, and the water conflict over River Nile in Africa

IPRI Team
10 July 2020
Photo Source: Tribune

IPRI Conflict Weekly, 08 July 2020, Vol.1, No. 25

Conflict and COVID as the double jeopardy to the tourism industry in J&K
In the news
On 6 June, the Tribune carried a news report highlighting the plight of taxi operators in Jammu. The news report quoted a taxi operator in Jammu stating: "The government is yet to decide on the resumption of the Vaishno Devi pilgrimage and there is no work at the local level as well. We are virtually on the verge of starvation. This taxi was the only source of income for me. My family has not been able to pay the tuition fee of our two children which is being repeatedly demanded by the school."

The problem is the same in Kashmir valley and holds for all economic activities in both the regions of J&K – Jammu and Kashmir – which is dependent on tourists – who come from rest of India and across the world – for different purposes – pilgrimage, holiday and adventure. For those who are dependent on tourism, Summer is lost already.

Issues at large
First is the COVID restriction that has prevented the movement of people into J&K. The closure of traffic into J&K by rail, road and air due to COVID restrictions has hit both the regions equally. During this period – the two capitals – Jammu and Srinagar should have been brimming with tourists and pilgrims. Multiple airlines from different destinations would bring rest of India into these two regions. And also, international tourists.

Second is the self-restriction by the tourists and the pilgrims, due to the impression that the situation in J&K is not normal to visit. Last year (2019) witnessed many developments before and after 5 August (when the Government of India revoked the special status of J&K under Article 370 of the Constitution) that has been widely discussed in the national and vernacular media. The tourists and the pilgrims, who would throng J&K for a shikara ride in the Dal lake in Srinagar, or play winter sports in Gulmarg, or take the pilgrimage trek to Vaishno Devi and Amarnath – have become a trickle.

Third, is the security lockdown. Much before the COVID, there was a security lockdown imposed, due to the resurgence of conflict in the Valley. Violence has been steadily increasing, and 2020 has already witnessed a record number of terrorist incidents in the last few years.

Fourth, is the increased investments in the tourist infrastructure by individuals. During the late 2000s and early 2010s, and the domestic expectations within J&K increased with a spurt in tourist arrivals to both the regions – Jammu and Kashmir. There was an increased investment within J&K on the tourism industry by individuals, as the tourism numbers steadily increased before 2016-18. New trains and flights to the cities of Jammu and Srinagar would mean, increased tourists and economic opportunities. Many took loans or gave up other activities and invested in tourism-related infrastructure. Like the taxi operator quoted above. There are numerous others from multiple industries – hotels, roadside eateries, guides, indigenous handicrafts (for example - carpets, curtains, paper mache) etc. And it is not just people from the two cities; it included others from towns such as Gulmarg in the Valley or Katra in Jammu.

In perspective
For both the regions of J&K, it is double jeopardy with conflict and COVID. Third jeopardy comes with the topography of J&K, where the industrial sector has not taken off. Agriculture and tourism have become the mainstay of the economy. And there has been a shift from agriculture to the services during the recent years, due to other problems that are facing agriculture in the rest of India, from produce to labour. As the COVID outside and conflict inside continues, the tourism industry in J&K will face a tough time this year.

Pakistan court dismisses claims against Hindu temple construction, while the State seeks advice from the Council of Islamic Ideology
In the news 
On 8 July, the Islamabad High Court (IHC) dismissed three identical petitions filed against the construction of a Hindu temple in Islamabad observing that the construction of a place of worship requires mandatory approval of the Capital Development Authority (CDA). The matter is now being referred to the country's Council of Islamic Ideology (CII) an independent government advisory body of religious leaders, to make recommendations on this issue. Further, the government has asked for consultation on whether public funds can be used for the construction of the temple.

Several clerics have raised objection to the construction of the temple, with pressure mounting from religious, political and civilian bodies. On 5 July, a group of men destroyed a partially constructed wall around the temple's land stating that it was their Islamic duty to do so.

Issues at large
First, PTI's promise on ensuring religious coexistence derails. When Prime Minister Imran Khan won the elections in 2018, he promised to uphold Pakistan as a symbol of hope and tolerance away from the country's violent sectarian past with regard to the construction of this temple. He also promised to improve conditions for Pakistan's religious minorities who have always faced discrimination. However, the recent development has only derailed his plans of projecting Pakistan as a secular country.

Second, opposition from the religious right. The religious right within Pakistan has strongly criticized the construction of this temple in Islamabad. Mufti Zia-ud-Din of the Lahore chapter of Jamia Ashrafia, a leading cleric in Pakistan, has issued a fatwa against the construction of the temple by calling it "un-Islamic." The fatwa, issued initially when the grant was approved, also states that according to Sharia laws it is not permitted for non-Muslims to build their new worship places or rebuild those which were in ruins as "this is a sin in an Islamic state."

Last, criticisms from the political right. The political right has also echoed similar criticisms like that of the religious right over the construction of the temple. The speaker of the Punjab Assembly along with other political leaders has voiced strong contestations against the construction stating that it is against Islam and an insult to the Islamic kingdom. 

In perspective
First, the contention over the temple construction has brought out the stark realities of the minority rights in Pakistan. The mere construction of the temple has shaken the foundations of a republic which has promised equal rights to the minorities. For long Pakistan's minorities, including Hindus, Christians and Sikhs, have been the targets of religious hardliners. The country's strict blasphemy laws have been disproportionately applied against religious minorities. It is the government responsibility to ensure that the rights of these minorities are secured.  

Second, although Pakistan was founded as an Islamic country, the country has a liberal section, starting from its founder Jinnah. The rise of the religious right has been challenging the liberal values; the democratic State is unable to resist the former and defend the latter .

Post lockdown, Indian trawlers make a comeback in large numbers in Sri Lankan waters 
In the news
The recent reports on the increase in the numbers of Indian trawlers in the Sri Lankan waters have put the focus back on the unsolved dispute over the fishermen issue between India and Sri Lanka. The reports of trawlers breaching the international maritime boundary and entering the Sri Lankan waters did not slow down during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. But even though the trespassing of the illegal fishermen were very less when India was under lockdown, the numbers have witnessed a further increase with the easing of the lockdown.

Issues at large
First, the historical nature of the dispute. The maritime boundary between India and Sri Lanka is limited to 24 nautical miles in the Palk Bay and the Palk Strait. Despite having strict laws and regulations by Sri Lanka on trawlers, bottom nets and catch, the Indian fishermen have frequently resorted to utilizing more and more trawlers and bottom nets to scoop up marine varieties, which have led to the loss of maritime resources. Approximately, there are 300 Indian boats per day entering Sri Lankan waters that have been identified by the Sri Lanka Navy and Coastguard on every Monday, Wednesday and Saturday. Even though, the frequent trespassing marks a violation of international maritime law, the historical nature of the claims of the Indian fishermen on the Sri Lankan has remained unresolved and have led to frequent clashes between the two countries.  

Second, no arrests of trespassers with fear of COVID-19 spread. As infections are increasing in India, there is a possibility of the spread of COVID-19 back in Sri Lanka through Indian fishermen. Therefore, currently, no arrests of Indian fishermen are taking place; instead, they are being chased away. This same old issue has redefined its threats as it can directly impact the overall health security apparatus of Sri Lanka, at a time when Sri Lanka has been able to manage the pandemic better than the other regional countries. However, lack of arrests have encouraged the Indian fishermen to engage more in IUU fishing in the Sri Lankan waters.

In perspective
First, the northern fishing community in Sri Lanka keeps complaining to the authorities about IUU fishing by Indians in the Palk Bay and Gulf of Mannar. This has posed direct threats to their livelihoods. Arresting fishermen become a temporary solution to the decade long fishing dispute, as, by the time they are released, another set of fishermen are arrested. 

Second, the issue of IUU fishing is linked with various other issues such as smuggling of goods, human smuggling, maritime terrorism and marine pollution. In the long-term, this poses a critical issue in violation of sovereignty. Although there have been formal bi-lateral discussions, they have not met with success. It is necessary that Sri Lanka balances its relations with India while finding solutions to the dispute. 

Damming the Nile: Tensions escalate between Egypt and Ethiopia as talks stall
In the news
After two weeks of mediation by the African Union, the new round of talks in resolving the dam dispute on the Nile had resumed among Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan. These talks have now been stalled owing to Ethiopia's refusal to enter into a binding agreement regarding filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). 

With the negotiations stalled, Egypt has stated that its delegation had assessed the situation before presenting a proposal that took all the three countries' interests into consideration. The Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources pointed out that it recognizes Ethiopia's need to generate electricity, and also places Sudan's concerns within the loop.

Issues at large
First, it is a long-standing dispute. History tells us that there are multiple claims on the Nile river. The issue surrounding the dam can be traced back to 2011, when the construction for the GERD began in north Ethiopian highlands. Egypt fears that the dam will be an impediment to its fresh water supply. Sudan, also dependent heavily on Nile waters, finds itself caught in the middle of the dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt. 

Second, the colonial legacy. The British aimed to control the source of the Nile river as a part of their colonial policies. Britain, on behalf of its colonial territories- Tanzania, Sudan, Kenya and Uganda, entered into Nile Water Treaties with Egypt. These treaties and agreements prevent the upstream countries from using Nile without the consent of the lower stream countries. Egypt, who stood to benefit from these arrangements, argues that they are valid to this day. The colonial legacy has therefore a role to play in the current dispute. 

Third, the need for development. All the three countries- Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt depend upon Nile waters for sustenance and developmental activities. Ethiopia aims to generate 6,000MW from the project, thereby becoming the largest power exporter in Africa. Egypt, on the other hand, is completely dependent on the Nile to meet its needs. The country already suffers from acute water scarcity, and the UN predicts that it could run out of the water by 2025. 

Fourth, the lack of trust. Each of these countries, particularly Egypt and Ethiopia do not trust each other's methods of dealing with the issue and the solutions put forth. There is a fear that each one could act against the interests of others and take unilateral decisions in the form of proposing agreements. This has pushed Ethiopia to not enter the agreement regarding filling of GERD. There is also mistrust among the lower riparian countries- Sudan and Egypt, regarding the share of water they would be receiving if the dam becomes operational. 

In perspective
First, the fallout of conflict has been its transition to other domains such as the use of technology by the warring parties as show of power and strength over the other. The tensions over the GERD are not limited to the negotiating tables. Ethiopia claimed that it successfully foiled several cyberattacks from Egypt in the backdrop of the water dispute. 

Second, a strong negotiating role of regional organization has helped in opening channels for water conflict resolution. Cairo knocked the doors of UNSC over the dispute. However, Addis Ababa strongly protested against this and with the help of South Africa, successfully moved the dispute to the purview of the African Union. South Africa, which is the chair of AU, is mediating among the three countries to arrive at a solution. This development reiterates that the regional organizations are better equipped to resolve regional disputes, rather than the Security Council which will have the interference of the P5 and other countries. 

Also this week…

"Life Sentence" for breaking Security Law, Hong Kong gasps to live through dystopia 
People in Hong Kong could now face life in jail for breaking the controversial New Security Law imposed by mainland China. The legislation came into force on 5 July, but the full text was only revealed later. It was brought in by Beijing following increasing unrest and a widening pro-democracy movement. Beijing's spread of control and rule has extended to right the opposition narration by removing the books by pro-democracy figures from public libraries. The literary works will be reviewed to see if they violate the new law. At least nine books have become unavailable or marked as 'under review', according to the South China Morning Post newspaper, and it includes books authored or co-authored by Joshua Wong, a prominent pro-democracy activist, and pro-democracy politician Tanya Chan.

Cameroon holds first peace talks with the separatist group since 2017 
Representatives of Cameroon's government have held talks with the main leaders of an Anglophone separatist group for the first time since the conflict began in 2017. Julius Ayuk Tabe, the most prominent separatist leader, has said that the meeting is currently searching the possibilities of a ceasefire. The peace talks mark a de-escalation in the period of violence that broke out in 2017 following a government crackdown on peaceful protests by Anglophone lawyers and teachers who complained of being marginalized by the French-speaking majority.

Four killed in Al Shabab attacks in Somalia 
Explosions rocked two of Somalia's largest cities on 4 July as officials said a suicide car bomber detonated near the port in Mogadishu and a landmine in a restaurant on the outskirts of Baidoa killed four people. Al-Shabab, which is fighting to overthrow the country's Un-recognized government, claimed responsibility for both attacks.

About Authors 
D. Suba Chandran is a Professor and the Dean of School of Conflict and Security Studies. Abigail Miriam Fernandez and Rashmi B R are Research Assistant and PhD scholar respectively in NIAS. Ruwanthi Jayasekara is a Research Assistant at the Institute of National Security Studies Sri Lanka (INSSSL), Colombo.


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Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1709

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #284-285
Cambodia-Thailand Border Tensions, Protests in the US, and the Indigenous Māori question in New Zealand
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1672

D Suba Chandran

India and Pakistan:
De-escalation and the “New Normal”
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan