CWA # 1817
Conflict Weekly 300th Issue
The War in Gaza: Alarming Ground Situation, Failed Global Interventions, Competing Visions and Viability of Two-State Solution
The Middle East
Conflict Weekly 300, 25 September 2025, Vol 6, No. 38
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R Preetha
25 September 2025
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Nearly two years into the war in Gaza, started with the Hamas-led attack on Israel on 7 October 2023, which killed 1,200 people and saw 251 taken hostage, Israel’s military response has killed more than 65,000 Palestinians. What began as an operation to dismantle Hamas has escalated into a protracted conflict that has devastated Gaza’s infrastructure, displaced its population, and deepened humanitarian consequences, including famine conditions, warnings of Genocide by the United Nations. Israel’s goalposts seem to be shifting from dismantling Hamas and securing the release of hostages to reoccupation plans. In this backdrop, the war has reshaped the regional and international diplomatic landscape, leading to new peace initiatives, recognition of Palestinian statehood by key Western powers, and the growing pressure (both domestic and external) on Israeli leadership. The major takeaways from recent developments are as follows:
1. Alarming famine situation
The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) alert reported that “the worst-case scenario of famine is currently playing out in the Gaza Strip.” Israel’s military operations have caused mass civilian displacement, but many remain trapped amid bombardment and hunger. On 23 September 2025, the Gaza health ministry stated that hospitals in the enclave would run out of fuel in the coming few days, threatening lives. The UN reports that Israel now controls nearly 75 per cent of Gaza’s territory after systematically demolishing infrastructure in designated buffer zones. The humanitarian impact combined with the continued captivity of around 48 hostages, 20 believed alive, highlights the central dilemma: a military approach has yet to achieve Israel’s stated goals, while entrenching international isolation and accusations of war crimes.
2. Failed UN Interventions
In the backdrop of the stalemate on the battlefield, the United Nations General Assembly has endorsed a seven-page declaration aimed at halting the war and laying groundwork for a two-state solution. The plan aims to establish a transitional administrative committee under the Palestinian Authority (PA) to govern Gaza, and to deploy a temporary international stabilization mission, mandated by the UN Security Council. The declaration also calls on Israel to make a “clear public commitment” to a two-state solution and to freeze settlement activity. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas has welcomed the initiative in his UN address on 25 September, stating that Hamas will play no role in governance and that weapons must be handed over to state institutions. However, the plan faces major obstacles. Israel and the United States boycotted the July conference that produced the declaration and continue to oppose its provisions. PM Netanyahu has explicitly rejected a Palestinian state “west of the Jordan River,” while key members of his coalition advocate annexation of parts of the West Bank. Without Israeli acceptance or US enforcement, the UN-backed plan risks becoming aspirational rather than actionable.
3. International recognition of Palestine
In the 80th session of the UN General assembly a growing number of Western nations including France, Britain, Canada, and Australia have formally recognized Palestinian statehood. President Emmanuel Macron described recognition as essential to preserving the possibility of a two-state solution, a sentiment shared by other European leaders. More than 150 UN member states now recognize Palestine, though full membership still requires Security Council approval, where Washington holds a veto. While recognition carries symbolic weight in terms of upgrading Palestinian missions to embassies and signaling discontent with Israel’s conduct of the war, its practical impact remains limited. Israel retains control of borders, movement, and access to Gaza and the West Bank. The United States, Israel’s closest ally, has strongly opposed recognition moves, warning they reward terrorism. The US ambiguity leaves Washington as both essential to any resolution and increasingly ineffective in delivering one.
4. Competing visions for Gaza
A recurring question is what governance arrangement could plausibly stabilize Gaza after the war. The UN Proposal converges on a transitional role for the Palestinian Authority, supported by an international stabilization mission. President Abbas has declared the PA’s readiness to assume responsibility for Gaza, promising reforms and elections within a year of a ceasefire. "Hamas will have no role in governance, and it - along with other factions - must hand over its weapons to the Palestinian National Authority," he stated on 25 September addressing the UN. Hamas remains a social and political force that cannot be easily excluded. Israel has rejected any governance arrangement that empowers either Hamas or a sovereign Palestinian state. While reconstruction is contingent on security guarantees and credible governance structures. Any sustainable end to the war relies on answers to certain foundational questions: “Who will govern Gaza both in the immediate future and over the long term? Who will provide security and maintain law and order? Who will fund and oversee the monumental task of reconstruction in Gaza? And what sort of political pathway might be constructed to put Israelis and Palestinians on road to a better, peaceful future?” as The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace frames it. Current diplomatic initiatives, whether US-led or UN-backed, have yet to offer clear answers.
5. Viability of a two-state solution
The two-state framework has been the foundation of peace efforts since the 1993 Oslo Accords. However, the feasibility of one today is a question mark. Israel’s government, the most right-wing in its history, has declared there will never be a Palestinian state. A United Nations commission said in a report on 23 September 2025 that the Israeli government had shown a clear intent to establish permanent control over Gaza and to ensure a Jewish majority in the occupied West Bank. The UN report documents the systematic demolition of civilian infrastructure by Israeli authorities in Gaza’s corridors and buffer zones, which by July 2025 had enabled Israel to extend its control over 75 per cent of the Gaza strip. Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority faces structural limitations. Without full UN membership or control over borders, its capacity for bilateral engagement remains weak. Israel maintains strict controls over the movement of goods, investment, and cultural or educational exchanges. Palestinians lack an operational airport, and the landlocked West Bank is accessible only through Israel or the Israeli-controlled border with Jordan. Since capturing Gaza’s border with Egypt during the ongoing war, Israel has also assumed full control over all entry points to the Gaza Strip. Nevertheless, international recognition of Palestine and UN declarations reflect an attempt to preserve the two-state idea from disappearing entirely. This tension between Israeli opposition and renewed international advocacy defines the current diplomatic impasse.
What Next?
The War in Gaza has become both a humanitarian catastrophe and a diplomatic quagmire. On the ground, Israel’s expanding offensive has caused massive civilian losses without decisively eliminating Hamas nor securing hostages back. At the UN, international initiatives seek to frame a transition plan, but without Israeli or US buy-in, progress remains elusive. Western recognition of Palestinian statehood signifies a symbolic change but lacks material leverage. Meanwhile, fundamental questions of governance, security, and reconstruction remain unanswered. Without credible steps toward a political settlement, whether through a revived two-state framework or alternative arrangements, the war risks continuing indefinitely.
About the author
R Preetha is a postgraduate student at Stella Maris College, Chennai.
