Conflict Weekly 300th Issue

CWA # 1824
Conflict Weekly 300th Issue
The War in Ukraine: Five Regional and Global Fallouts
Europe
Conflict Weekly 300, 25 September 2025, Vol 6, No. 38

Advik S Mohan
25 September 2025

Photo Source: Reuters

On 24 February 2022, the Government of the Russian Federation announced a ‘special military operation’ to ‘de-nazify’ Ukraine. Vladimir Putin, the President of Russia alleged Ukraine of developing nuclear weapons, and threatening Russians living in the Donbas region.

Over three years after the war began, following have been the five significant regional global impacts. 

1. Inflation
Immediately after the beginning of the war, the United States and its allies imposed a series of sanctions against Russia. USD 5 billion worth of the Russian central bank’s assets were frozen, and Russian banks were barred from the SWIFT messaging app. Additionally, high-tech military product exports to Russia were barred. However, the sanctions have had little discernible impact on Russia; which has used the war to broaden its economic ties with countries like China and India. The war has had a broader global impact in terms of the damage caused to food supplies. Russia and Ukraine accounted for 30 per cent of global wheat exports, before the war. Ukraine accounted for 12 per cent of global wheat and 50 per cent of sunflower oil exports. However, the war caused a rapid decline in Ukrainian food exports. The impact was felt most acutely by developing countries reliant on Ukrainian food exports, such as Iraq, Egypt and Liberia, which saw sharp food price increases of over 50 per cent. Inflation saw a sharp increase as well, as a result of the food price rise. The economic headwinds led to unrest and protests in many parts of the world; such as the 2022 revolt in Sri Lanka.

2. The Oil and Energy Conundrum
Russia was the world’s largest exporter of natural gas and among the largest exporters of oil prior to the war. Europe, in particular was reliant on Russian gas- which accounted for over 40 per cent of its imports. For instance- Germany depended on the Russian-backed Nord Stream project for two-thirds of its imports. After the war; the European Union began taking efforts to decouple itself from Russian gas- such as through the REPowerEU plan for increasing renewable energy supplies. However, Russian gas still accounts for 18 per cent of the EU gas imports; with countries like Hungary and Slovakia still reliant on it. Another impact of the war has been the shift in Russian oil exports, away from the West and towards countries like India and Saudi Arabia which have substantially increased their imports of Russian oil.

3. Increasing Defence Expenditure
The West has offered substantial military aid and weapons such as F-16 fighter jets and Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine since the war began; viewing it as essential for the country’s survival. The US is the largest military contributor by far, with over USD 69 billion in military aid. Additionally, the war has caused an increase in EU defence spending, as part of a pledge to increase military spending to 2 per cent of GDP. Countries like Sweden and Finland joined NATO; shedding decades of neutrality. The Russian threat has now become a priority for Europe; especially border states like the Baltic states which built a defence line of bunkers and anti-tank obstacles. On the other side, Russia has received support from Iran, North Korea and China. Iran is a crucial supplier of drones to Russia. Meanwhile, China has been exporting drones to Moscow. North Korea has deployed troops to the Kursk region in support of Russia, along with artillery. The military involvement has deepened the divide between Russia and its allies against the West.

4. Geopolitical Realignments
Apart from allies like China and North Korea, Russia has seen support amongst other Global South countries as well. While its ties with the West have gradually degraded, the same has not occurred with the rest of the world. On the contrary, Russian diplomatic initiatives and anger over perceived Western hypocrisy on human rights and decades of exploitation has ensured the opposite.  Military leaders in countries such as Burkina Faso and Niger have deepened ties with Russia, amidst estrangement from the West. Another factor has been the Wagner Group being involved in anti-security operations, replacing Western countries. In return for providing security, the Wagner Group and Russia have gained access to military bases and weapons. French troops have been forced to leave their military bases in countries like Mali after decades; with Moscow stepping into the void. The Wagner Group was integrated as the Africa Corps under the Russian Defence Ministry in 2024, deepening Russian involvement in the continent. The BRICS group has also not condemned Russia. For instance, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the President of Brazil and Cyril Ramaphosa, the President of South Africa stated Ukraine had an equal responsibility in starting the war. China has deepened trade ties with Moscow, and India has significantly improved its imports of Russian oil. The return of Donald Trump to the US presidency has added another dimension to the conflict, since Trump is considered to be soft on Russia.

5. Social and Political Polarization
Several political parties in the West have taken stances against aid to Ukraine. These include the Republican Party in the US, the AfD and BSW in Germany, the Fidesz party in Hungary. In March 2025, Viktor Orban, the Prime Minister of Hungary blocked an EU proposal to send weapons to Ukraine. Orban, along with Robert Fico, the Prime Minister of Slovakia has consistently opposed providing aid to Ukraine. The war has amplified divisions in the EU, and in European societies. Parties like the AfD and the Republicans have promoted the narrative that aid to Ukraine is diverting away from essential resources for citizens.

About the author
Advik S Mohan is an independent scholar based in Bangalore.

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