Conflict Weekly 82

CWA # 526
Conflict Weekly 82
Taliban offensive, New Zealand's apology over the Pacific communities, Peru's new problem, and an inter-State clash in India's Northeast

IPRI Team
4 August 2021
Photo Source: APphoto/RahmatGul

Conflict Weekly #82, 4 August 2021, Vol.2, No.18
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI & KAS-India Office

Abigail Miriam Fernandez, Avishka Ashok, Vishnu Prasad, and Wonchibeni Tsopoe
 

Afghanistan: Taliban's offensive reaches Afghanistan's major cities
In the news
On 1 August, the Taliban escalated its countrywide offensive by continuing assaults in three provincial capitals: Herat, Lashkar Gah and Kandahar. Several commandos were deployed to the western city of Herat, while authorities in the southern city of Lashkar Gah called for more troops to counter the fierce fighting. On the same day, the Taliban also struck the Kandahar airport in southern Afghanistan with at least three rockets. A Taliban spokesperson said: "Kandahar airport was targeted by us because the enemy were using it as a centre to conduct airstrikes against us." On 3 August, the residence of acting Defence Minister came under a car bomb attack, followed by sporadic gunfire and hand grenade blasts.
 
On 2 August, President Ashraf Ghani blamed the US "hasty" troop withdrawal for the worsening violence in Afghanistan. Further, he said that his administration would now focus on protecting provincial capitals and major urban areas in the face of the rapidly advancing Taliban, who he previously said has become "more cruel and more oppressive."
 
On 3 August, US special envoy for Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, said: "At this point, they (Taliban) are demanding that they take the lion's share of power in the next government, given the military situation as they see it," adding, "the Taliban say they do not want to be a pariah state," He said: "the Talibs have been emboldened by the developments in recent weeks in terms of the gains that they have made and are in a maximalist frame of mind."
 
Issues at large
First, the Taliban's offensive. Since May 2021, the Taliban has launched a large-scale offensive across the country and has made substantial territorial gains by captured around half of Afghanistan's 400-odd districts, seizing land, closing in on the central government compound and taking control of key border crossings with neighbouring countries amid the US and NATO troop withdrawal. The recent attacks in Herat, Lashkar Gah and Kandahar mark a shift in the Afghan conflict, before these, clashes were largely confined to the country's rural areas or smaller cities contested by the militants. However, large-scale conventional attacks in Afghanistan's largest cities shows that the Taliban is marching towards the centre of these cities.

Second, the return of former prisoners to the battlefield. According to Afghan officials, the Taliban commander supervising the offensive in Lashkargah is one of 5,000 former prisoners released by the Afghan government in 2020 under pressure from the US. Similarly, several former prisoners that were released to further peace talks have returned to the battlefield to join the Taliban offensive, highlighting a miscalculation on the part of the US.
 
Third, Kabul's defensive. In efforts to counter the Taliban's offensive, the Afghan forces have lead operations and counterattacks against the Taliban in several provinces. The Afghan forces have responded with substantial air support, retaking some districts. However, both the Afghan air force and its commando forces are exhausted and overwhelmed. Although, the government has repeatedly dismissed the Taliban's territorial gains, it has largely failed to reverse their pace on the ground.
 
In perspective
First, the Taliban's end game. This is the first time that the Taliban has advanced into urban areas since they were overthrown nearly two decades ago. The current focus of the Taliban's efforts seems to be several key provincial capitals. Additionally, the Taliban's offensive depicts that they are not looking for power-sharing but something more. If the Taliban if succeeds in capturing any major urban centre, the current offensive would move to another level, impacting the already deteriorating situation in the country.
 
Second, Kabul's unsystematic response. The Taliban advance has once again left the Afghan government rattled. Although the Afghan forces have holding ground in several key areas, Kabul still lacks clear direction in countering the Taliban, which in the long run would be futile.


New Zealand: Pacific communities receive a long-overdue apology
In the news
On 1 August, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern represented the government and formally apologized to the Pacific communities for the relentless "Dawn Raids" which targeted individuals from the Pacific islands of Samoa, Tonga, Fiji and more. While addressing the crowd gathered at the Auckland town hall, she said: "The immigration laws of the time were enforced in a discriminatory manner and that Pacific peoples were specifically targeted and racially profiled when these activities were carried out."
 
Issues at large
First, the Dawn Raids. The Dawn Raids refer to the crackdown on the Pacific communities by the Labour government in the mid-1970s. In 1974, the police in Auckland, equipped by the government, started conducting raids in an attempt to deport outsiders who were overstaying their work permit. The raids were conducted at dawn to catch overstayers before they left for work. This move was initiated due to the economic downturn which led to heightened unemployment and jobs scarcity. There was a growing anti-foreigner sentiment as New Zealanders were increasingly losing out to Pacific Islanders on economic opportunities. The Dawn Raids were problematic because the raids intentionally targeted people who did not look like "White New Zealanders." Even though both, Pacific communities and the Europeans, represented one third of the overstayers each, the rate of deportation was 86 per cent for the Islanders while that of Europeans was five per cent.
 
Second, the Pacific communities in New Zealand. The Pacific Islanders include people from Hawaii, Samoan Islands, Tokelau, Tahiti, Tonga and other Micronesian and Melanesian islands. This populace has steadily evolved in New Zealand; from 2200 people in 1945 to 2,95,941 people in 2013 which is almost 7.4 per cent of the total population. The Islanders starting moving to the country in big numbers in 1950s during the industrial boost. However, this minority community is often subject to discrimination which had been covertly institutionalized in the 1970s. The 2013 National Statistics prove this discrimination as the group of Islanders earned lesser than the national average and over 28 per cent of the children belonging to the community lived in poor conditions. The Recognized Seasonal Employer Scheme (2007) further propagates this discrimination as it allows for the agricultural sector to employ foreigners for seasonal work; thereby exploiting the Islanders as cheap and disposable labour and also limiting their right to live permanently in the country.
 
Third, intolerance in New Zealand. Despite being considered as a tolerant country, New Zealand has also had a history of discriminatory policies against select groups of individuals. It imposed a poll tax on Chinese immigrants in the early 20th century and there have been numerous instances of discrimination against Samoan communities. A small part of the population in the country continues to see Islanders as secondary citizens who drain the economy.
 
Fourth, the Polynesian Panther's demands. The Polynesian Panthers Party ignited a movement to protect their community's rights and improve their quality of their life in New Zealand. They also pushed for the national apology in April 2021 and demanded schools to educate students regarding the unfair discrimination and provide scholarships for students from the community. The party aims to end the prejudice against the Pacific Islanders by enlightening the people regarding the conduct of the government instead of brushing it off.
 
In perspective
New Zealand's apology to the community comes after half a decade but is a positive step towards accepting Islanders as a part of the country. The apology also comes at a time when there is a growing indigenous movement, not just in the Pacific Ocean region but also across the world in Canada, the US, Mexico and more.


Peru: Protests a sign of challenges facing Castillo
In the news
On 31 July, protests were held in the Peruvian capital of Lima against new president Castillo's decision to appoint a hardliner Marxist as his Prime Minister. Guido Bellido has been accused of sympathizing with the terrorist group Shining Path, which had been engaged in a violent effort to seize power in the 1980s and 1990s.
 
"Terrorism, never again," Aljazeera reported the crowd as chanting, with many holding placards bearing anti-communist messages. Many in the protests were linked to the Popular Force Party, whose leader Keiko Fujimori had lost narrowly to Castillo in the elections.
Media outlet TeleSUR reported that a group of 300 protesters reached within a block of the presidential residence of Saturday, which led to reinforcement of security.
 
Issues at large
First, Bellido's alleged defense of the Shining Path. The controversy seems to have been sparked by comments that Bellido made on Friday after taking up his parliamentary seat. According to France24, Bellido said: "The country was a disaster, there were Peruvians who mistakenly took a path — are they Peruvians or not? What do you have against the senderistas (Shining Path)?" This touched a nerve with a lot of Peruvians for whom traumatic memories of the violent uprising by Shining Path still remains raw. According to a 2003 report by a commission to investigate the Peruvian conflict of the 80s and the 90s, the Shining Path had been responsible for the deaths of more 30,000 people in the country.
 
Second, an erosion of Castillo's credibility. Castillo had been accused of having links to far-left terrorist groups, including the Shining Path, during the election campaign. These had been strengthened with the group allegedly distributing anti-Fujimori pamphlets, threatening people who voted for her. Castillo had refuted those allegations by pointing out that he had been a Rondero, a member of peasant patrol groups who had fought against the Shining Path. Nevertheless, appointing Bellido will only strengthen these suspicions further.
 
Third, Fujimori's ability to prevent Castillo from ruling. That many of the protesters belong to Fujimori's party, show that she still has the ability to mobilize her supporters and create unrest in the country. While Castillo's Peru Libre is the largest party in the parliament, Fujimori could still form a right-wing coalition against him, preventing him from passing legislation or even impeaching him. Castillo has not done himself any favours with Bellido's appointment likely to alienate many moderates in the parliament.
 
In perspective
The protests, just a couple of days after Castillo's swearing-in, sees his reign as president off to a tumultuous reign. Bellido's appointment has dashed hopes that Castillo would adopt a more moderate approach. Like Castillo, Bellido too is a political novice who has never held public office and it remains to be seen if either of them can navigate the choppy waters of the Peruvian political landscape. Castillo is Peru's sixth president since 2016.
 
The role that Fujimori has played in engineering these protests is important. With her still not fully accepting the election results, it is probable that such disruptions will become a regular feature of Peruvian politics.


India: Long-standing tensions escalate in Assam-Mizoram border
In the news
On 26 July, six officers of the Assam police and one civilian were killed at the Assam-Mizoram border as a long withstanding boundary issue over the two states aggravated violent clashes.
 
On 30 July, both states agreed to the deployment of CRPF at the four-kilometre stretch from Assam's Lailapur to Mizoram's Vairangtei under the command of a senior CRPF official.
 
The North East Students' Organisation (NESO) the umbrella body of several unions in the region condemned the violence along the Assam-Mizoram border on Monday, the leaders of the students' bodies further said, "The fragile situation is a reminder of how vulnerable security of border residents can be when such conflicts arise."
 
Issues at large
First, the Assam and Mizoram border demarcation problem. Assam became a constituent state of India in 1950 and lost much of its territory to new states that emerged from within its borders between the early 1960s and 1970s. In 1972, Mizoram became a Union Territory, separating itself from Assam before attaining full statehood in 1987. Three southern Assam districts of Cachar, Hailakandi and Karimganj share a 164 km long border with Mizoram's Kolasib, Mamit and Aizwal districts. Both the states oppose the demarcation as they claim land on the border between Assam's Cachar and Mizoram's Kolasib district. Due to this disagreement, alleged transgressions have taken place over the decades, and skirmishes increased in recent months; the dispute took an ugly turn on 26 July and escalated into a violent clash.
 
Second, the colonial roots to the conflict. The British government used Assam as ingress to capture the surrounding tribal areas. On 20 August, 1875, the British government stipulated a clear demarcation between the Cachar plains and Lushai hills, which was also a corollary of the Bengal Eastern Frontier Regulation (BERF) Act of 1873. Mizoram, then called Lushai hills, was turned to a district of Assam. During this time, in 1875, the British released a notification differentiating Lushai hills from the plains of Cachar (present Assam). The second demarcation came in 1933, the map of Mizoram was redrawn and the Cachar-Mizoram border was dissolved.  The new demarcation marked the separation between the Lushai hills and Manipur, which indicated the Manipur border began from the tripping of Lushair Hills, Assam's Cachar district and Manipur.
 
Third, the difference between the two states. According to the Mizos, the first demarcation was done in consultation with Mizos chiefs and two years later, this also became the basis for the Inner Line Reserve Forest demarcation in the Gazette. Mizoram follows the first demarcation saying it is the only prescription that took into consideration of the Mizo community. On the other side, Assam follows the notification of the second demarcation because of which the dispute has been simmering for decades now. Despite multiple peace agreements to maintain the status quo, differences have prevailed over the years.
 
In perspective
The clashes between the two states date back to nearly a century and a half and both sides accuse each other of encroachment. There is no consensus boundary between the two; therefore, maintaining peace is difficult in the region. The two states should deter from violence as it overshadows the actual cause and rather negotiate for a diplomatic solution. While demarcating, a lot of history, ethnicity and tribal claims were overlooked, because of which the role of the central government is important to settle the problem amicably.


Also from around the World
By Apoorva Sudhakar and Abigail Miriam Fernandez
 
Peace and Conflict from East and Southeast Asia
China: Death toll from July floods rises to 302
On 3 August, Al Jazeera cited a local government's news briefing wherein the officials said the death toll from the floods in July in central China had risen to 302. Of the total deaths, Henan province accounted for the highest casualties at 292 deaths and 47 missing. The state capital of Henan, Zhengzhou received 617.1 millimetres of rain in three days starting 17 July. Meanwhile, several people on social media reportedly expressed criticism on the government's response and disaster management. However, the outrage also sparked hostility towards foreign journalists covering the floods; the Foreign Correspondents Club of China raised concerns over harassment of journalists working for the Los Angeles Times, AP, BBC, and Deutsche Welle.
 
Hong Kong: First person charged under National Security Law sentenced to nine years prison
On 30 July, Tong Ying-kit, the first person to be charged under the National Security Law, was sentenced to nine years in prison. He was found guilty of inciting secession and terrorism for carrying a flag which read: "Liberate Hong Kong, revolution of our times." The judges observed: "We consider that this overall term should sufficiently reflect the defendant's culpability in the two offences and the abhorrence of society, at the same time, achieving the deterrent effect required." BBC's new report says that since the law came into effect in 2020, more than 100 have been arrested and the latest verdict sets the tone for how similar cases will be heard.
 
North Korea: FAO-WFP report says food shortage to worsen in next four months
On 31 July, The Korea Herald reported on a joint report by the Food and Agriculture Organization and World Food Programme wherein it said that North Korea's food security situation was set to worsen in the August to November period. The report estimates that food shortage will amount to 860,000 tonnes in 2021 or "approximately 2.3 months' worth of food use." The food shortage has been attributed to strained access and the effect of trade limitations. Therefore, the report said, "Measures to facilitate the import of bilateral and multilateral food assistance, and/or significant levels of commercial imports, will be required if this gap is to be covered."
 
North Korea: Kim Yo-Jang expresses displeasure over military drill between US and South Korea
On 1 August, Kim Yo-Jong, the North Korean leader's sister, warned that the summertime military drills between the US and South Korea will hinder progress of the inter-Korean talks. The Korea Herald quoted her: "I surely see the military drill, which takes place at an important turning point like this, will become an unpleasant prelude to seriously hurting the will of the leaders of the North and South seeking to take the step toward rebuilding trust again and further clouding the path lying ahead for inter-Korean relations." The development comes within a week after the hotline between Pyongyang and Seoul was restored on 27 July.
 
South Korea-Japan: Nuclear envoys discuss lasting peace on Korean peninsula 
On 1 August, the chief nuclear envoy of South Korea held a telephonic conversation with his Japanese counterpart, and discussed ways to build lasting peace on the Korean Peninsula. The South Korean Foreign Ministry said the two officials "exchanged opinions on ways to cooperate between the South and Japan, and among the South, the US and Japan for substantive progress in the efforts for the complete denuclearization of the peninsula and the establishment of lasting peace."
 
Myanmar: Hlaing declared as Prime Minister; promises to hold free elections 
On 1 August, the State Administrative Council announced itself as the caretaker government and declared Min Aung Hlaing as the Prime Minister. Hlaing, while reportedly calling the National League for Democracy (NLD) party members as terrorists, promised to conduct "free and fair multi-party election." He described them as "extremists [who] chose the act of terrorism instead of doing or solving it in line with the law." The above announcement exactly on the day Myanmar marked six months of the February coup. 
 
Peace and Conflict from South Asia
India-China: Another military hotline established in north Sikkim
On 1 August, a hotline was established between the Indian Army in Kongra La, north Sikkim, and the People's Liberation Army (PLA) at Khamba Dzong in the Tibet Autonomous Region. According to the Indian Army the hotline was set up to "further the spirit of trust and cordial relations along the borders," adding, "the inauguration was attended by ground commanders of the respective Armies and a message of friendship and harmony was exchanged through the Hotline." This is the sixth hotline for local commanders between the two armies.
 
India: Assam signs agreement with Nagaland on the border issue
On 31 July, Assam signed an agreement with Nagaland to end the standoff on its easter front. Both sides agreed to withdraw security forces and police personnel from the border locations "immediately" in an attempt to de-escalate the situation between the two northeast states. The Chief Minister of Assam via Twitter said: "In a major breakthrough towards de-escalating tensions at Assam-Nagaland border, the two Chief Secretaries have arrived at an understanding to immediately withdraw states' forces from border locations to their respective base camps."
 
India-Russia: Joint military exercise INDRA 2021 begins
On 1 August, the 12th edition of Indo-Russia joint military exercise INDRA 2021 began at Volgograd, Russia. The 13-day mega exercise will entail conducting counter-terror operations under the United Nations (UN) mandate by a joint force against international terror groups and will involve 250 personnel from both countries. According to the Indian Army, "The exercise will be yet another milestone in strengthening security cooperation and will serve to reinforce the longstanding bond of friendship between India and Russia."
 
Pakistan: Policemen on polio duty killed by unidentified attackers
On 2 August, a policeman on polio duty was shot dead by unidentified attackers in the Atal Sharif area of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Previously, on 1 August, two similar incidents took place in which a policeman returning from polio duty was killed in an attack in an area on the outskirts of Peshawar and a policeman was injured in the South Waziristan tribal district when police mobile guarding polio vaccinators hit a landmine.
 
Pakistan: Aurat March Faisalabad cancelled after authorities deny NOC
On 1 August, the Aurat March in Faisalabad was cancelled on grounds that the administration had not issued a No Objection Certificate (NOC) to the organizers. The march which was organized against the "ongoing femicide" and to bring to light "the brutal murders of women" across Pakistan aimed at highlighting that the incidents are not isolated and "to make collective social change in the way women are treated."
 
Peace and Conflict from Central Asia, Middle East and Africa
Israel-Iran: Attack on tanker sparks row between Iran and the UK, US and Israel 
On 29 July, an oil tanker managed by an Israeli company was reportedly struck in a drone attack; Israel accused Iran of the attack. However, on 1 August, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman condemned the claims. He said: "Wherever this regime has gone, it has brought with itself insecurity, terror and violence. Those responsible [for this attack] are the ones that allowed the Israeli regime to set foot in this region." On the same day, the US Secretary of State reiterated Israel's position and blamed Iran for the attack. On 2 August, the UK government summoned the Iranian ambassador; the Foreign Commonwealth & Development Office said the UK Minister for the Middle East "reiterated that Iran must immediately cease actions that risk international peace and security, and reinforced that vessels must be allowed to navigate freely in accordance with international law."
 
Israel-Palestine: Over 250 protesters injured by Israeli troops in occupied West Bank
On 30 July, Al Jazeera cited the Palestinian Red Crescent which said that actions of Israeli troops, including use of tear gas, had injured nearly 270 protesters in occupied West Bank; residents in Nablus have been frequently protesting since May. The Red Crescent said that seven Palestinians were hit by live ammunition and several others needed treatment for gas inhalation. Meanwhile, the Israeli police said they were responding to approximately 150 Palestinians who had reportedly thrown rocks and burning tyres at soldiers.
 
Djibouti: Three die in rare instance of intercommunal violence
On 1 August, fighting between the ethnic Afar group and the Issa group led to the death of three, in what the public prosecutor termed a rare instance of intercommunal violence in the capital. The Interior Minister termed the incident "intolerable." On 2 August, with the police presence, calm was restored; however, internet services and Facebook were erratic and inaccessible respectively. The Afar groups largely reside along Djibouti's borders with Ethiopia and Eritrea.
 
Ethiopia: Around 50 bodies found floating in river; Macron calls for dialogue between federal government and TPLF; airline denies involvement in conflict 
On 2 August, a Sudanese official said that local authorities had found nearly 50 bodies in the river floating between Ethiopia and Sudan; the bodies are believed to be people fleeing the conflict in Ethiopia. However, a government-operated Twitter account reportedly termed the news a fake campaign of the Tigrayan "propagandists." Meanwhile, on 31 July, French President Emmaneul Macron called for talks between the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF). He also called for unhindered access to the region for aid delivery. In another development, on 1 August, the Ethiopian Airlines denied any involvement in transporting weapons and soldiers to Tigray. Responding to images circulating on social media, the airlines said the pictures were photoshopped and were used to tarnish the airlines' reputation.
 
Libya: Main coastal road reopened in line with ceasefire 
On 30 July, a 5+5 committee consisting of members from Libyan National Army and Tripoli-based government announced the reopening of the main coast road which had been cut between Misrata and Sirte cities during the conflict. The reopening of the road was in line with a ceasefire signed in 2020; however, the committee clarified that the road was not open to military traffic.
 
The Mediterranean: Over 700 migrants rescued from the sea within two days 
On 1 August, the SOS Mediterranee said that since 31 July, it had rescued over 700 migrants trying to cross the Mediterranean off the Libyan and Maltese coasts. The SOS Mediterranee tweeted that the youngest rescued was a three months old baby. The rescue operations were carried out by the organization's vessel, along with assistance from Sea Watch and ResQship. The development comes after recent reports revealed that over 1,000 were recorded in the Mediterranean in the first half of 2021. 
 
Peace and Conflict from Europe and the Americas
Belarus: NGO chief found dead in Ukraine
On 3 August, the body of a Belarusian activist Vitaly Shishov was discovered in Kyiv a day after he was reported missing. The authorities have opened a murder probe into the incident and are pursuing all leads, including a possible "murder disguised as a suicide." Shishov was the head of the Kyiv-based Belarusian House in Ukraine (BDU), an organization that helps Belarusians trying to flee persecution. Meanwhile, Belarusian sprinter Krystsina Tsimanouskaya has been granted a humanitarian visa by Poland after she was recently denied participation in the Tokyo Olympics and threatened with forced repatriation after she criticized her athletics federation on social media.  
 
Turkey: Wildfires along the coast have killed eight people
On 28 July, wildfires broke out across the south and southwestern coastal towns of Turkey claiming the lives of eight. According to the Forest Ministry, most of the more than 100 wildfires that broke out in Turkey in the past few days have been contained, however, six more are still needed to be brought under control. Meanwhile, wildfires have also hit several other regions across the Mediterranean amid a heatwave in southern Europe, particularly in Spain, Italy and Greece.
 
Europe: Protests over Covid-19 measures in France, Italy and Germany
On 31 July, thousands of people protested across Paris and other cities against the government's "health pass" as necessary to boost vaccination rates. Although most of the demonstrations were peaceful, few witnessed sporadic clashes with riot police in Paris. Similar protests were seen in Italy, where protests took to the streets showing their opposition to plans to require vaccination cards termed as the "Green Pass." Meanwhile, 13 separate demonstrations took place around Berlin with over 600 people been arrested after participating in protests against the German government's coronavirus restrictions.
 
Colombia: Ex-army chief to be charged over extrajudicial killings
On 1 August, Colombia's attorney general's office stated that former army commander General Mario Montoya will be charge responsible for 104 extrajudicial executions, as part of the "false positives" scandal. Further, the attorney general's office said: "General Montoya continued to exert pressure on all the country's commanders to comply with his policy of operational results, in which combat deaths were the only criteria for evaluating the campaign," adding, "he continued to evaluate commanders by number of reported combat deaths." Additionally, under the ordinary justice system, Montoya could be sentenced to up to 50 years in prison, however, under the country's transitional justice court (JEP) he could receive a sentence of between five and eight years.
 
Mexico: Referendum on whether to probe ex-presidents falls short
On 1 August, a referendum backed by President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador on whether to investigate Mexico's former political leaders failed to reach the required turnout although it had backing from those who voted. According to a preliminary count of nearly 99 per cent of ballots, 97.7 per cent of participants supported the proposal, however, the turnout was just over seven per cent, far below the 40 per cent threshold set to make it binding.


About the authors
Wonchibeni Tsopoe is a Research Intern at the Global Politics Course in NIAS. Avishka Ashok, Apoorva Sudhakar and Abigail Miriam Fernandez are Research Associates at the School of Conflict and Security Studies in NIAS. Vishnu Prasad is a postgraduate scholar at the Department of International Studies, CHRIST (Deemed to be University), Bengaluru.


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CW Column
May 2026 | CWA # 2120

Brighty Ann Sarah

Conflicts in the Middle East
The US-Iran War Week Thirteen: Escalating Hostilities, Tenuous Ceasefire and Tense Negotiations
CW Column
May 2026 | CWA # 2119

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
The Ebola spread in DR Congo, The Faye-Sonko split in Senegal, and the Deepening US military involvement in Nigeria
TWTW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2115

Aparna A Nair

The Putin-Xi Summit
Trade, Technology, Security, and Pipeline
Global Politics Explainer
May 2026 | CWA # 2114

Glynnis Winona B

What makes the UAE a global player?
Explaining the Governance, Economy, People, and Strategic Influence of a Small Middle Eastern State
Global Politics Explainer
May 2026 | CWA # 2113

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Sri Lanka and the US-Iran War 
Rising oil imports, Austerity measures and State capacity
The World This Week
May 2026 | CWA # 2111

NIAS Global Politics Team

The Trump-Xi Summit
The Africa Forward Summit 2026 I North Korea's Constitutional Amendment 2026
TWTW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2110

Aishal Hab Yousuf

The Trump-Xi Summit:
Managing Strategic Competition through Trade, Technology, and Diplomacy
Conflict Weekly
May 2026 | CWA # 2092

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War, Week Ten
CW Column on Middle East: Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAE's Covert Manoeuvres
CW Column
May 2026 | CWA # 2091

Brighty Ann Sarah

Conflicts in the Middle East:
Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAEs Covert Manoeuvres
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:
Fraying Ceasefire, Renewed Negotiations and the Risk of a Stalemate
TWTW Takeaways
May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V

King Charles's US Visit:
Emphasis on strong bilateral relations, democratic values and security cooperation
TWTW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf

UAEs Exit from OPEC:
Implications for the Middle East and the Energy Market
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:
Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal

Escalating Violence in Mali:
Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups
TWTW Note
April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Japans New Defence Posture:
From Post-War Pacifism to Strategic Recalibration and Autonomy
CW Note
April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
Asymmetric Terms, Fragile Truce and Israeli Occupation
CW Note
April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad
Special Commentary
April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan
Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Expanding Drone Warfare, Russia's Strategic Patience and Ukraine's Diplomatic Outreach
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2068

Femy Francis

China-Japan Tensions
Escalating Defence Posturing and Economic Decoupling
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2066

Akshath Kaimal

The Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Recurrent Clashes, Defiant Taliban, Contesting Narratives and Emerging Chinas Role
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The Middle East (JanMar 2026):
The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Afghanistan (JanMar 2026):
Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)
Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)
Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)
Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty
The World This Quarter�
April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)
An Illegitimate Regime's Consolidation Game
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2055

Haans J Freddy

East Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Chinas military operations near Taiwan, Japan-China tensions and South Koreas security challenges
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

Chinas External Landscape (Jan-Mar 2026):
Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

The United States(Jan-Mar2026)
Tariffs, Ukraine, Iran and Operationalization of Trumps World Order
March 2026 | CWA # 2042

Preetha Renganarayanan

Five Takeaways of the US Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) Report for 2026
March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting
Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?
March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:
Five major challenges for the new government
March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War
UNSC Resolution 2817 between Clear and Unified Message and Manifest Injustice
March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

Chinas Two Sessions 2026
New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget
March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
March 2026 | CWA # 2012

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Long-range strikes, Defence adaptation and the EUs energy dependence
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026
The Rise of the New and the Fall of the Old
March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The Forgotten South Sudan Conflict
Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modis Visit to Israel
From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership
March 2026 | CWA # 2001

Preetha Renganarayanan

Six major takeaways on the economy, border and internal security and Iran
February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover
PR Commentary
February 2026 | CWA # 1986

Preetha Renganarayanan

Focus on Trade, Defense, Energy and Regional Connectivity
PR Commentary
February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan
The return of Basant, and what it signifies
February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria
US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency
February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine
The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26
Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China
Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
PR Explainer
November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US
A New opening, or another cycle?
February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China
PM Keir Starmers visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties
TWTW Note
January 2026 | CWA # 1946

Preetha Renganarayanan

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1914

Preetha Renganarayanan

This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1709

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #284-285
Cambodia-Thailand Border Tensions, Protests in the US, and the Indigenous Māori question in New Zealand
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1672

D Suba Chandran

India and Pakistan:
De-escalation and the “New Normal”
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan