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CWA # 1197, 4 January 2024
Conflict Weekly
The War in Ukraine and Gaza

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #209, 4 January 2024, Vol.5, No.1
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI and the India Office of the KAS

Padmashree Anandhan, Rosemary Kurian, Nuha Aamina, Rishita Verma and Gananthula Uma Maheshwari

The War in Ukraine: Drones, missiles and counterattacks
Padmashree Anandhan

In the news
On 1 January, following the attack in Belgorod, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, issued a warning. Putin stated: “We are striking with high-precision weapons at the decision-making centres, at locations where military personnel and mercenaries gather.”

On 30 December 2023, Belgorod district located in southwestern Russia was subject to a repeated missile and drone strike from Ukraine injuring more than 100 and killing 24 civilians. 

On 2 January, the Ukrainian Air Force reported on its struggle to counter Russia’s drone attack (Tupolev Tu-95s bombers) in Kyiv. Apart from this, missile attacks were reported in Kharkiv resulting in damage to residential buildings and civilian infrastructure injuring many and killing four. On the same day, Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, citing the mass missile attack in Kyiv and Kharkiv demanded more air defence aid such as “Patriot, IRIS-T, and NASAMS.”

On 2 January, in response to the missile attacks in Kyiv and Kharkiv, Russia Today reported on how the targets were planned by the Russian Ministry of Defence. Russian armed forces claimed to have carried out a group strike using long-range precision weapons and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) on the military complex of Ukraine. According to the report from Russian officials, the attack was targeted at facilities in Kyiv and the suburbs that produced missiles and drones including the repair sites. Additionally, Russia claimed to hit missile depots, ammunition and aircraft weaponry.

On 5 January, the White House issued a statement citing the usage of short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) of North Korea by Russia for the mass missile attack in Ukraine. The US National Security spokesperson John Kirby called the transfer of missiles a “significant and concerning escalation.”

Issues at large
First, increasing mass missile attacks. Kyiv which has been subject to missile attacks since November 2023 is considered to be the resort when attacks escalate for Russia. Critical and energy infrastructures such as power plants and substations, district heating networks and telecommunications equipment have been the targets. Since January, the military depots, production sites and complexes have also come under intense attack. On the ground, with not much push or pull in the front line, Russia continues to advance north and south of Bakhmut except on the east bank of the Dnipro River. Considering the frequency, the mass missile attacks and Russia’s air power seem to be intact against Ukraine.

Second, Russia’s winter manoeuvrability. After the rocket attack launched in August 2023 in Kharkiv following Ukraine’s attack on the Crimean bridge, the November attacks were considered the largest. Russia targeted Kyiv’s administrative cities and energy infrastructure with 75 Shahed drones. The December 2023 attack by Russia on Ukraine with 120 missiles can be seen as the third wave. Moscow's forces seem to have adapted their tactics compared to last winter 2022 by preceding their missiles with waves of drones with a mission to inundate Kyiv's air defence capabilities while depleting its ammunition reserves.

Third, Ukraine’s continuing to plead for air defence support. Kyiv welcomes this support, but it also recognises the dependency on the outcome of the current political deadlock in the US, which is stalled over the 2024 Presidential elections. The military is set to face a critical shortage, especially in air defence if the package remains blocked. This leaves Ukraine with the challenge to continue to shield itself against such mass missile strikes.

Fourth, Ukraine’s strategy and question of peace. Zelensky in his recent interview with the Economist denied the notion of Russia’s win citing the losses incurred by Russia to be more. Confirming the failure of the mid-2023 counteroffensive, appraised the Ukraine forces' efforts in countering Russia in the Black Sea. Despite the lack of air defences, Ukraine has outperformed expectations by strategically utilising the resources while leaving the possibility of peace out of the discussion.

In perspective
First, a greyer 2024 ahead for Ukraine. Overall looking at the trend of Russia’s wave of mass missiles in response to the attacks of Ukraine and consistently at Kyiv showcases its symbolic attitude to showcase its strength. The pledged weapons and air defence systems do show promise for Ukraine’s battle against Russia but with the increase in the frequency of the mass missile attacks, it is downside for Ukraine, forced into a fight. Without Western countries promising long-term military support with the next level of weapon systems such as long-range Ukraine is left in the grey zone.

Second, a confident Russia. With the tactical use of weapons such as rockets, Shahed drones and a mass number of missiles since the 2023 winter, Russia has succeeded in showcasing its air power. Putin’s symbolic year-end conference and the following statements to retaliate show the plan in place and the readiness of Russia to strike back. This also proves the vacillation of the sanctions and restrictions on other actors such as China, and Iran imposed to control Russia by the West. 

War in Gaza: Eleventh Week
Rosemary Kurian, Nuha Aamina, Rishita Verma and Gananthula Uma Maheshwari

War on the ground
On 29 December, according to Al Jazeera, the Abu Youssef Al Najjar Hospital’s director, Marwan al-Hams, stated that the injured parties in this attack immediately needed to be evacuated from the country so they could receive medical attention abroad. He pleaded for greater fuel and aid to be permitted inside Gaza. A group of civilians in the town was struck by an Israeli military airstrike while this was happening in north Gaza.

On 30 December, BBC reported, according to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), a large number of displaced Gazans are living “in the open, in the parks, in their cars.” According to the agency, 1.4 million people reside in UNRWA facilities and some are now making their home “anywhere they can find.” According to the UN, 100,000 Palestinians have moved to the southern border city of Rafah in recent days in search of protection. In southern Gaza’s Khan Younis, which Israel regards as a Hamas stronghold, Israeli tank fire and airstrikes are still ongoing. The residents have told of fierce gunfights between the Israeli soldiers and the Hamas militants. Furthermore, while the Israeli army bombs sites throughout the region, the Hamas leaders in Gaza claim that more lives have been lost.

On 1 January, BBC reported that Israel Defence Forces (IDF) spokesperson, Daniel Hagari, stated that soldier deployments were being modified in anticipation of “prolonged fighting” and that some soldiers, particularly reservists, would be pulled back to give them time to reorganise. He stated: “These adaptations are intended to ensure the planning and preparation for continuing the war in 2024.” Hagari added: “The IDF must plan out of an understanding that there will be additional missions and the fighting will continue the rest of the year.”

On 3 January, Al Jazeera reported that six individuals were killed on 2 January including top Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri after a drone attack struck a Hamas office in Dahiyeh, a bastion for Hezbollah in Beirut.

On 4 January, BBC reported that the Hamas accused Israel of hitting Gaza’s ‘safe zone.’ According to the Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza, fourteen people were killed in an explosion at al-Mawasi in Khan Younis. Al-Mawasi has been declared a safe zone in Gaza by Israeli forces.

Regarding the Hamas’ allegations, the Israeli military has not yet responded. In Beirut, there is a burial for Saleh al-Arouri, the deputy head of the Hamas, who was murdered in Lebanon by what appears to have been an Israeli drone strike.

Regional response
On 29 December, Arab News reported that Iran executed four members of the Zionist group, who were convicted of spying. They were sentenced to death on charges of “moharebeh” or waging war against God and “corruption on Earth” through their “collaboration with the Zionist regime.”

On 29 December, the Jerusalem Post reported that Israel conducted airstrikes from the Golan Heights targeting sites in Southern Syria and Damascus. Tal al-Sahn, a radar site of the Syrian army, was destroyed in the strikes. Syrian forces activated defences in Damascus during the attacks.

On 30 December, Arab News reported that the King of Jordan, Abdullah II, in his phone call with the Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, called for international pressure for a permanent ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. He spoke on protecting civilians and providing sustainable humanitarian aid delivery.

On 31 December, Al Jazeera reported that Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the border zone lying between Gaza and Egypt should come under Israeli control. He stated that the war in Gaza would continue for months and reiterated his promise of eliminating the Hamas.

On 3 January, the Jerusalem Post reported that Egyptian President, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, told the US delegation that the present priority is to secure a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. He stated that there should be “responsible action” to avoid spillover of the conflict in the region.

On 4 January, the Jerusalem Post reported that Hezbollah, a terrorist organisation in Lebanon, withdrew from the border by three kilometres. It is a “tactical withdrawal” but also viewed as a signal to the US and Israel that the organisation doesn’t want to get involved in a full-scale war.

Global response
On 29 December, according to Al Jazeera, the UN raised concern over the increasing air strikes in Gaza making it difficult to deliver humanitarian aid in the region. The humanitarian condition in Gaza has been deemed an “impossible situation” by the UN.

On 30 December, Reuters reported that South Africa had filed against Israel for breaching the 1948 Genocide Convention due to its onslaught against Hamas in Gaza. South Africa has asked the court to make short-term provisions to stop Israel’s militancy in Gaza, it emphasised the need to “protect against further, severe and irreparable harm to the rights” of Palestinians. The Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded by calling it “baseless.” A statement released by the Department of International Relations and Cooperation of South Africa stated that since October, Israel has failed to “prevent genocide” and “prosecute the direct and public incitement to genocide.”

On 30 December, according to Al Jazeera, the US approved the sale of emergency weapons to Israel for the second time, bypassing the US Congress. The US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, told Congress that the sale covered military equipment worth USD 147.5 million stating that “he had exercised his delegated authority to determine an emergency existed necessitating the immediate approval of the transfer.”

On 2 January, according to Arab News, USS Gerald R. Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, is set to return to the US “in the coming days,” as per the US Navy. The carrier was deployed in the Mediterranean Sea after the 7 October attack by the Hamas, however, was redeployed “to prepare for future deployments.” 

On 2 January, Reuters reported that in an online briefing, Eylon Levy, an Israeli spokesperson, stated that Israel “will appear before the International Court of Justice at The Hague to dispel South Africa’s absurd blood libel.” He added that a list of measures the military has adopted to “minimise harm to non-combatants.” 

On 3 January, according to Reuters, the US Department of State slammed comments by Israeli ministers who commented that Palestinians must be resettled outside Gaza. The US stated that comments made by Ben Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, both Israeli ministers, were “inflammatory and irresponsible.”

On 4 January, according to Reuters, Mathew Miller, a spokesperson of the US Department of State, noted that the US is “not seeing any acts that constitute genocide” in Gaza. The statement came after South Africa initiated genocide proceedings against Israel’s military operation in Gaza at the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

On 4 January, according to Arab News, the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, is set to leave on his fourth trip to the Middle East. Due to potential threats to regional stability, Blinken will commence his trip to Israel, his fifth one since the war began.

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Akriti Sharma, Rishita Verma, Gananthula Uma Maheshwari, Anu Maria Joseph, Ryan Marcus, Narmatha S, Vetriselvi Baskaran, Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri, Rosemary Kurian, Rishita Verma, Padmashree Anandhan and Dhriti Mukherjee
 
East and Southeast Asia
China: Won't tolerate provocations by Philippines coast guards, says defence ministry 
On 28 December, Chinese Ministry of National Defence spokesperson Wu Qian responded to accusations from the Philippines regarding alleged provocations and harassment in the South China Sea stating that it would not ignore the Philippines' actions. The Philippines claimed that the Chinese coast guard and maritime militia had fired water cannons at its resupply boats and deliberately rammed another vessel. Qian dismissed these allegations as "purely false hype" and asserted that the Philippine side intruded into disputed waters, proactively ramming a Chinese Coast Guard vessel. Qian emphasised that China is committed to resolving differences through dialogue, however, will not tolerate repeated provocations. The Philippines denied provoking conflict and rejected accusations of relying on US support to antagonise China. Tensions over the South China Sea have strained relations between the two countries with China urging the US to stop meddling in the issue and supporting Philippine infringement and provocation.

China: Condemns Philippines building reef structure in the South China Sea 
On 29 December, Global Times reported that the Philippines' announcement of plans to build a permanent structure on Ren'ai Jiao (Ren'ai Reef) in the South China Sea has drawn strong condemnation from China. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the Philippines of breaking promises, changing policies and violating international law. Ren'ai Jiao is part of China's Nansha Islands which it claims sovereignty. China vowed to respond firmly to any infringement and provocation to safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights. The Philippines' decision to build a permanent structure, claimed to be for fisherfolk, is viewed with concern by China, as it further complicates the situation in the disputed waters. 

North Korea: Criticises drills, raising tensions on the Korean Peninsula
On 4 January, according to the Korea Herald, South Korea and the US conducted a joint live-fire exercise near the North Korean border to enhance their combat readiness, involving the Capital Mechanized Infantry Division and the US Stryker Brigade Combat Team on 29 December. The drills, ongoing in Pocheon, aimed to strengthen combined operational capabilities against North Korean military threats. The exercise featured 110 weapon systems including K1A2 tanks, A-19 combat aircraft, Stryker armoured vehicles and artillery systems. Simulations included precision-guided strikes by A-10 combat aircraft, firing by K1A2 tanks and integrated tank-air defence shooting. North Korea criticized South Korea's military activities, warning of a heightened risk of clashes between the two sides this year. On 1 January, the Strait Times reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un stated that an armed confrontation on the Korean Peninsula is inevitable. Kim Jong Un called for military mobilisation to counter the US and South Korea if they choose military confrontation. 

Japan: 65 died in the earthquake as the survivors froze in the rain, awaiting rescuers
On 3 January, the Straits Times reported that the death toll from the earthquake that occurred on the New Year rose to 64 on 3 January. With a preliminary magnitude of 7.6, the earthquake hit the Noto Peninsula, flattening homes and isolating distant regions. Heavy rain forecast for January 3 raised fears of landslides, complicating rescue efforts. The authorities confirmed 64 deaths making it Japan's deadliest earthquake since 2016. Firefighters pressed on with rescue efforts despite rain and aftershocks. Mayors of affected cities urged the government to clear roads and deliver aid promptly emphasising the urgent need for essentials including food and water. Survivors faced challenges in road conditions with many areas accessible only by helicopter. 

Indonesia: Rohingya refugees arrive amid local opposition
On 1 January, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported the arrival of nearly 150 Rohingya refugees on Karang Gadih beach in Indonesia’s province of North Sumatra. They sailed from Cox Bazar camp in Bangladesh fleeing gang violence and hunger. Although initially cared for the weak and hunger-stricken refugees, the residents were hostile towards them and believed to “only bring problems later.” Amid opposition and protests, Indonesian students attacked a temporary Rohingya shelter in Aceh on 27 December. Indonesian Navy has increased maritime patrols. The country is not obligated to accept Rohingyas as it is not a signatory to the UN 1951 Refugee Convention. However, it continues to provide temporary shelter for Rohingya refugees.  

The Philippines: Second joint military exercise with the US this week
On 3 January, Reuters reported on a two-day joint patrol in the South China Sea by the US and the Philippines. According to the Philippine military, four ships from the Philippine Navy and four ships from the US Indo-Pacific Command including an aircraft carrier, a cruiser and two destroyers took part in the joint patrol. Chief of the Philippine Armed Forces, Romeo Brawner, expressed that with this "significant leap," the country intends to pursue an open and free Indo-Pacific region and an international system based on norms. The Philippines has been accused by China of continuously provoking by depending on US assistance. 

Myanmar: Arakan Army gains ground in Chin state
On 4 January, according to the Irrawaddy, the Arakan Army (AA) seized the Junta base in Chin Let Wa in Paletwa Township in the state of Chin on 3 January. The AA discovered significant amounts of weaponry and ammunition and stated that Junta troops would be expelled from Paletwa Township within a week. The AA forces reiterated to oust the junta troops from the state of Rakhine and are currently attacking the Taung Shay Taung hilltop junta outpost of Kyauktaw Township. A junta jet strike in Kyauktaw Township on 3 January killed a resident and severely injured eight others. Since November, the AA forces have captured around 150 junta outposts in the state of Rakhine.

Myanmar: China condemns clashes at border 
On 4 January, according to the Irrawaddy, an artillery shell from Myanmar had fallen in Nansan town in the Chinese province of Yunnan injuring multiple people. Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, stated that China is dissatisfied as “the armed conflict has caused Chinese casualties.” He urged relevant parties “in the northern Myanmar conflict to immediately cease hostilities and take practical measures to prevent further pernicious incidents that endanger peace and tranquillity on the border.” He added that China will take action “to safeguard the security of its citizens’ lives and property.”

South Asia
Bangladesh: Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus imprisoned over labour law violations
On 1 January, Dhaka Tribune reported that Muhammad Yunus, chairman of Grameen Telecom, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006 for founding the Grameen Bank and pioneering the concepts of microcredit and microfinance, was jailed for six months over labour law violations. In 2021, a case was filed by the Department of Inspection for Factories and Establishment against Yunus for violating labour laws. On 2 January, Amnesty International highlighted that the conviction of the Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus for civil issues is an abuse of labour laws and democracy. It stated: "Amnesty International believes that initiating criminal proceedings against Muhammad Yunus for issues that belong to the civil and administrative arena is a blatant abuse of labor laws and the justice system and a form of political retaliation for his work and dissent." 

Sri Lanka: Protests by Rohingya refugees 
On 2 January, according to the Hindu, a group of Rohingya refugees protested outside the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) as their living allowances will discontinue after the agency closes by the end of 2024. The protestors demanded resettling in another country as Sri Lanka would not allow permanent settlement. Sri Lanka hosts 100 Rohingya refugees whom the Navy rescued while they were trying to reach Indonesia from Myanmar.

Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa
Syria: Israeli airstrikes target Aleppo amid rising tensions
On 30 December, the Syrian Ministry of Defence stated that Israel launched an airstrike on Iranian military locations in Aleppo resulting in some material damage. The ministry stated: “Israel carried out an aerial aggression from the direction of the Mediterranean Sea, west of Latakia, targeting several points south of the city of Aleppo.” The same day, Al Jazeera reported that another Israeli airstrike was conducted earlier on a southern Lebanon border town. Hezbollah, the Iran-backed group, claimed responsibility for three attacks on Israeli military bases along the border, which preceded the attack.

Lebanon: Israeli drone strike kills deputy leader of Hamas in Beirut
On 2 January, Al Jazeera reported that an Israeli drone strike on Dahiyeh, a Hezbollah stronghold, killed the Deputy Chief of the Hamas, Saleh al-Arouri. Four Palestinians and three Lebanese people were killed in the strike. It was directed at a meeting between representatives of Hamas and the Sunni Islamist Jama'a Islamiya movement in Lebanon. The adviser to the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Mark Regev stated that Israel had not claimed responsibility for the strike. He stated: “Whoever did this did a surgical strike against the Hamas leadership.”

Iraq: Accuses the US-led alliance of carrying out a drone attack in Baghdad
On 4 January, Al Jazeera reported that Iraq accused the international coalition led by the US of carrying out a drone strike that killed and injured several in the capital city of Baghdad. The Iran-linked Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) was the strike's target. Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s office stated: “The Iraqi armed forces hold the forces of the international coalition responsible for this attack.” He added that this was an act of aggression. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Iraq stated: “Iraq reserves its right to take a firm stance and take all measures that deter anyone who tries to harm its land and security forces.”

Yemen: US army attacks three Houthi boats in the Red Sea
On 31 December, the Yemeni Houthi rebels stated that they lost at least ten of their fighters as a result of US forces attacking three of their ships in the Red Sea. They added that the boats were carrying out their duty of “establishing security and stability and protecting maritime navigation” by stopping Israeli vessels and those destined for the ports of occupied Palestine from crossing the Red Sea. According to the US Central Command (CENTCOM), in response to a call from the Singapore-flagged vessel, Maersk Hangzhou, helicopters from two US warships, the USS Eisenhower and USS Gravely, fired at the “Iranian-backed Houthi small boats” in self-defence.

Sudan: Six killed in an attack in the Abyei region
On 1 January, Al Jazeera reported that the Abyei region, a disputed territory between South Sudan and Sudan, witnessed an ambush by armed men killing six people. The attack was carried out by one of the competing factions of the Dinka ethnic group, Twic Dinka from South Sudan's state of Warrap and Ngok Dinka from Abyei, who regularly clash over the administrative limit. The Minister of Information for the Abyei administrative region accused the armed youth from Twic county of Warrap state of the attack. Meanwhile, his counterpart, William Wol, from Warrap state claimed that it was too early “to point fingers.”

Sudan: RSF leader on wartime visit to Djibouti
On 31 December, Al Jazeera reported that the leader of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, visited Uganda, Ethiopia and Djibouti. This is his first abroad trip ever since the war erupted. Daglo discussed with Djibouti’s President, Ismail Omar Guelleh, the latest developments in the civil war. He emphasised restoring peace and readiness for negotiations with Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) leader, General Abdel Fattah al Burhan, for a comprehensive peace in Sudan. Djibouti’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mahamoud Ali Youssouf,  stated: “Next week, as chair of IGAD, Djibouti will also prepare the ground for Sudanese dialogue and will host a critical meeting.” 

South Africa: Flood hits the town of Ladysmith in KwaZulu-Natal province
On 31 December, Africannews reported that the town of Ladysmith in the province of KwaZulu-Natal was hit by floods. It killed at least 21 people and destroyed almost 1400 homes. Police spokesperson, Colonel Robert Netshiunda, stated: “As of 29 December 2023, a total of 21 bodies have been recovered.” He added that the death tolls are expected to rise as the total number of people missing is uncertain. Search and rescue teams are on board.

South Africa: Files case against Israel in ICJ over “genocide” in Gaza
On 29 December, South Africa filed a case against Israel in the International Court of Justice (ICJ) accusing it of “genocide” in Gaza. The country described Israel’s actions in Gaza as  “genocidal in character because they are intended to bring about the destruction of a substantial part of the Palestinian national, racial and ethnic group.” It added: “The acts in question include killing Palestinians in Gaza, causing them serious bodily and mental harm, and inflicting on them conditions of life calculated to bring about their physical destruction.”

Democratic Republic of Congo: Post-election violence
On 1 January, Africanews reported that demonstrators took to the streets in Goma on 31 December responding to the opposition's call to mobilise against the results of the presidential elections. President Felix Tshisekedi was re-elected securing 70 per cent of the vote against his major opposition candidate Moise Katumbi securing 18 per cent and Martin Fayulu five per cent. Five opposition candidates announced their intention to march calling the country’s election a fraud.

Europe 
Serbia: Protest continues across Belgrade calling for new elections
On 30 December, protestors gathered in central Belgrade calling for a new round of elections. One of the protestors told the Deutsche Welle: “We want proper electoral registers and new elections under fair conditions. I hope many more people will take to the streets.” The opposition party, Serbia Against Violence, a pro-European alliance, was observed to invoke public interest through hunger strikes. One of the opposition ministers, Marinika Tepic, who had held out for 12 days, stated that she was “hungry for freedom and justice.” The protest sparked following the continued victory of Serbia’s President, Aleksandar Vucic, who the opposition claims is heading the Serbian Progressive Party through fraudulent ways. They argued that the election was “rigged” due to “falsification of the electoral register.”

The UK: Government reports a decrease in migrant crossings in the English Channel
On 2 January, the UK claimed that there was a decrease in the entry of migrants into the UK through the English Channel. According to the report, the UK witnessed a 36 per cent drop from 2022 to 2023. The UK’s Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, explained that the government had prioritised eliminating boat arrivals. He added: “That is why we have taken action to stop the boats, return hotels to their local communities and deter those wanting to come here illegally from doing so.” The UK government claimed to have spent EUR 3.46 billion annually in processing the migrant's asylum process and had cleared 92,000 asylum cases by 2023. 

Poland: Breach of airspace by Russian missile probe investigation and deployment of F-16
On 2 January, the Polish army stated that four F-16 fighter jets had been sent to Poland's eastern border in a move to shield itself from Russian attacks on Ukraine. The statement further explained that "in order to ensure the safety of Polish airspace, two pairs of F-16 fighters and an allied air tanker were put into action." Earlier, on 29 December, Poland's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that a Russian cruise missile had breached 40 kilometres of its airspace. Meanwhile, the Russian charge d' affairs, Andrei Ordash, stated that the Polish government had no proof to support its claims.

The Americas
Nicaragua: Pope expresses concern on continuing crackdown on Catholic church leaders
On 29 December, Nicaraguan police arrested three more Catholic priests, of which two were arrested for “refusing to stop mentioning Bishop Alvarez in their sermons.” Alvarez, who is currently imprisoned, has been the most prominent critic of Nicaragua’s President Daniel Ortega. Ortega has been known to accuse church leaders of trying to overthrow his administration and has thus inflicted a crackdown on leaders of the Catholic church. With at least 11 priests, bishops and seminarians behind bars as per Nicaraguan researcher Martha Molina, on 1 January 2024, Pope Francis expressed “concern” on the situation. He stated that “bishops and priests have been deprived of their freedom” adding that he hoped the “path of dialogue can be followed to overcome difficulties.”

Brazil: Foreign ministry issues statement of “concern” over Venezuela-Guyana dispute
On 29 December, Brazil’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement calling for “restraint” to be exercised about the ongoing territorial dispute between Venezuela and Guyana. Part of the ministry’s statement read: “The Brazilian government believes military demonstrations of support to either party should be avoided so that the ongoing dialogue process can produce results.” The dispute is over the oil-rich Essequibo region which is currently a part of Guyana that Venezuela is claiming. Before the statement was made, a British warship arrived in Guyana on the same day to conduct training exercises with Guyana’s military. Brazil’s ministry urged both countries to follow the guidelines of an agreement reached in which they decided not to use force to settle the dispute.

El Salvador: Murders down by 70 per cent in 2023 as per authorities
On 3 January, El Salvador’s security authorities stated that the prolonged state of emergency that had been declared by President Nayib Bukele in 2022 helped the number of homicides in the country dropping nearly 70 per cent in 2023. According to the Minister of Justice and Security, Gustavo Villatoro, 2023 saw 154 murders compared to 495 in 2022. The crackdown and emergency by Bukele have been widely appreciated by Salvadorans, who were for years grappling with gang violence, extortion and drug dealing. However, the emergency, which allows the arrest and imprisonment of suspected gang members without access to a lawyer, has been criticised by human rights groups. They claim that this provision has allowed for torture, deaths in custody and arbitrary detentions. The Central American University's (UCA) Observatory of Human Rights had earlier stated that deaths are “highly underreported” as the data given by the government was “not truthful.” Human rights groups including the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR) have reported 190 deaths and 5,000 abuses that have occurred during the crackdown.

The US: US-led coalition warns Houthis that they will “bear responsibility of consequences” for Red Sea attacks
On 3 January, the White House released a statement on behalf of the US and other countries including the UK, Australia, Canada, Germany and Japan warning Yemen’s Houthi rebels that continuing their “illegal attacks” in the Red Sea will have “consequences.” The statement called for the “release of unlawfully detained vessels and crews” warning that the Houthis would face repercussions for threatening “lives, the global economy and free flow of commerce in the region’s critical waterways.” The Houthi rebels have been targeting ships that have ties with Israel as an act of solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza. Before the release of the statement, there were various reports that the administration of US President Joe Biden is considering directly striking the rebels if attacks continue.

The US: Biden administration bypasses Congress for second time to provide weapons aid to Israel
On 29 December, the US State Department stated that for the second time in a month, the administration of US President Joe Biden bypassed Congress to greenlight a USD 147.5 million weapons sale to Israel. The State Department explained that the measure was necessary “given the urgency of Israel’s defensive needs” and the US’ commitment to “the security of Israel.” The emergency determination bypassed the requirement of a congressional review for foreign military sales giving Israel access to ancillary items needed to make 155 millimetre shells. This decision has left many confused, given that the Biden administration has of late been urging Israel to move to a low-intensity conflict. In response to this decision, a senior Hamas official, Basem Naim, stated that the Hamas holds the Biden administration “accountable for their direct role in sponsoring and orchestrating this ongoing genocide against our people.”

Newsmakers This Week

Who was Deputy Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri, killed by Israeli strike?
Shamini Velayutham

On 2 January, Deputy Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri was killed by a drone attack near Dahiyeh, a Hezbollah stronghold in Beirut's southern suburbs. Saleh al-Arouri served as the deputy head of Hamas's political bureau and was a founding member of the Qassam Brigades, the organisation's armed branch. He had spent fifteen years in an Israeli prison before going into exile in Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, had vowed to kill him before the start of the war on 7 October 2023. 

In his capacity as the organisation's top representative in Lebanon, he was instrumental in strengthening Hamas' ties to Hezbollah, a Shi'ite organisation in Lebanon and by connecting them to Iran, which serves as both factions' principal sponsor. Hamas saw Arouri as a prominent proponent of peace between opposing Palestinian factions, having a cordial relationship with Fatah and the political organisation of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. According to Reuters, Arouri was perceived as a hardliner in the dispute with Israel. Israel has long accused him of masterminding lethal operations. He was a founding member of the Izz el-Deen al-Qassam Brigades, the group's military wing. A seven-week Israeli assault on Gaza that resulted in the deaths of 2,100 Palestinians is said to have been orchestrated by him. The death of Arouri ignited the war and caused the regional actors to be involved. 


President Félix Tshisekedi and his second term in the Democratic Republic of Congo
Anu Maria Joseph

On 31 December, the Democratic Republic of Congo President Félix Tshisekedi was declared the winner of the presidential elections. He secured 73 per cent of votes to his second term in office. He ran against 18 opposition candidates. Major opposition leader Moise Katumbi secured 18 per cent votes. Martin Fayulu came third securing five per cent votes. None of the other candidates secured more than one per cent of votes. The voter turnout was about 43 per cent of the 41 million registered voters.

He came to power in 2019 which was the country's first peaceful democratic transition since independence in 1960. On the day of swearing-in, he stated that he wanted to "build a strong Congo, turned toward development in peace and security - a Congo for all in which everyone has a place." He promised to make the country "the Germany of Africa." He pledged economic growth and to address unemployment in a country with significant resources but according to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) 73 per cent of the population living in poverty. During his first term, he introduced free primary schooling across the country and health services for women giving birth in the capital Kinshasa.

Besides all the initiatives, Tshisekedi has failed to address the insecurity situation in the eastern DRC where according to the UN more than 120 rebel groups are thriving including M23, Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) and Cooperative Development of the Congo (CODECO). Recently, he demanded the end of the UN mission in DRC to withdraw from the region, raising fears of a security vacuum. Besides, DRC-Rwanda tensions have increased ever since Tshisekedi took office.

Tshisekedi won the elections against 18 opposition candidates securing a noteworthy per cent of votes. Elections were disorganised in several poll stations. According to BBC, several disturbances were reported in nearly 551 poll stations. Polls were unable to be conducted in several regions in the eastern provinces of over intense insurgent campaigns. The opposition has called on the judiciary to annul the election results. 

Tshesikedi's victory points to a politicised election commission and judiciary. John K Stearns, the founder and strategic adviser to the Congo Research Group (CRG), says this is hardly a victory of democracy. Besides, he vowed to declare war on Rwanda if he got a second term. His second term in office has raised fears of uncertainty over the instability in the eastern DRC and the credibility of Congolese democracy.

This Week in History

3 January 1521: The ex-communication of Martin Luther
Dhriti Mukherjee

On 3 January 1521, Martin Luther was excommunicated through the papal bull Decet Romanum Pontificem, issued by Pope Leo X. This event serves as a significant juncture when analysing the history of the Protest Reformation, a religious and socio-political movement that moulded and changed the trajectory of Western Christianity. Luther’s excommunication was carried out through the papal bull Decet Romanum Pontificem. Although Luther’s rebellion against the Roman Catholic Church began gaining momentum in 1517, this event was a culmination of it all. 

Luther, a German monk and theologian, initiated the Reformation in 1517 by challenging the Catholic Church’s sale of indulgences and questioning its theological doctrines. The publication of his Ninety-Five Theses and subsequent writings sparked widespread debate, leading to Luther’s summons to the Diet of Worms in 1521 where he was asked to renounce his views. Refusing to change his beliefs unless convinced by scripture or plain reason, Luther faced excommunication. His famous line “Here I stand; I can do no other” solidified his break from the Church. 

Following Luther’s stance, the papal bull declared him a heretic on 3 January 1521. After his formal excommunication which resulted in him severing ties with the Catholic Church’s sacraments and protections, several key political and religious events took course. Of these, the major implication was the formation of the Lutheran Church along with a broader Protest Reformation. The followers of Luther, who were known as Lutherans, embraced the reformed theological principles and went on to take the Lutheran movement to Germany and beyond. 

Aside from this, the fragmentation of Christendom that happened as a result of the excommunication instigation of the Wars of Religion, a series of religious conflicts. These conflicts which lasted from 1562 to 1598 were responsible for reshaping the political landscape of Europe. Political leaders across the continent began aligning themselves either with the Catholic Church or the protestant movements. The Peace of Augsburg in 1555 acknowledged the coexistence of Catholicism and Lutheranism within the Holy Roman Empire, establishing a precedent for religious tolerance.

Luther’s excommunication, therefore, set in motion a chain of events that not only transformed the religious fabric of Europe but also laid the groundwork for the diversification of Christian denominations and the emergence of Protestantism as a distinct branch of Christianity. 

About the authors
Akriti Sharma is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph is a Research Associate at NIAS. Dhriti Mukherjee, Akhil Ajith and Shamini Velayutham are Research Assistants at NIAS.

Rosemary Kurian and Nuha Aamina are undergraduate scholars from St Joseph's University, Bangalore. Rishita Verma and Gananthula Uma Maheshwari are postgraduate scholars from Pondicherry University. Ryan Marcus is an Undergraduate Scholar at Kristu Jayanti College, Bangalore.

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri, Vetriselvi Baskaran and Narmatha S are Postgraduate scholars at the University of Madras. Rosemary Kurian is a Postgraduate Scholar at St Joseph’s University, Bangalore.

Rishita Verma and Gananthula Uma Maheshwari are Postgraduate Scholars at the Pondicherry University. 


(The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of any institutions or organisations.)

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