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IPRI Team
1 February 2024 |
Conflict Weekly #213, 1 February 2024, Vol.5, No.5
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI and the India Office of the KAS
UNRWA relief fund shutdown exacerbates crises
Nuha Aamina
In the news
On 1 February, the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) stated that it would be unable to fulfil the needs of the Palestinians through February if aid was cut off.
The development came after on 26 January, UNRWA Commissioner-General, Phillippe Lazzarini, stated: "The Israeli authorities have provided UNRWA with information about the alleged involvement of several UNRWA employees in the horrific attacks on Israel on October 7." He said that the agency would terminate the contracts of those staff members and "launch an investigation in order to establish truth without delay." He further added that "any UNRWA employee who was involved in acts of terror" would be held accountable, including through criminal prosecution.
The same day, the spokesperson of the US Department of State, Matthew Miller, stated: "The Department of State has temporarily paused additional funding for UNRWA." He added that they would "review the allegations and the steps the United Nations is taking to address them." The European Union (EU) responded in a similar tone. The commission's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, stated that it would "assess further steps and draw lessons based on the result of the full and comprehensive investigation.”
On 27 January, the Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Antonio Tajani, stated: “The Italian government has suspended financing of the UNRWA after the atrocious attack on Israel on October 7.”
Following the US, Australia, and Canada, other Western countries including the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland and Finland, joined in pausing funding to the aid agency.
Meanwhile, Ireland and Norway expressed solidarity with the agency as its function is crucial in assisting the displaced Palestinians in Gaza. On 27 January, the Norwegian government stated: “We need to distinguish between what individuals may have done and what UNRWA stands for.” The Irish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Micheal Martin, posted on X: “Ireland has no plans to suspend funding for UNRWA’s vital Gaza work.”
On 28 January, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres vowed to hold to account "any UN employee involved in acts of terror.” At the same time, he stated: "The tens of thousands of men and women who work for UNRWA, many in some of the most dangerous situations for humanitarian workers, should not be penalized. The dire needs of the desperate populations they serve must be met."
On the same day, Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu stated that UNRWA is “perforated with Hamas” and that “in UNRWA schools they've been teaching the doctrines of extermination for Israel - the doctrines of terrorism, glorifying terrorism, lauding terrorism."
Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh indicted Israel of a "premeditated political attack" on the agency.
Issues at large
First, a background to UNRWA. The UNRWA was established in 1949 under a UN resolution which sought to provide relief to 700,000 Palestinians displaced by the Arab-Israeli war of 1948. The mission has carried out its operations for 70 years now. The UN General Assembly has continued to renew the UNRWA mandate, under which the agency is required to provide healthcare, housing and financial assistance to the refugee population in Gaza, West Bank, Syria and Lebanon. For instance, it operates schools, healthcare centres, and other vital services in Gaza. Currently, the UNRWA directly employs 30,000 Palestinians, who work to provide civic and humanitarian needs to 5.9 million descendants of those 700,000 refugees.
Second, longstanding Israel-UNRWA tensions. According to UN Resolution 194, Palestinian refugees are entitled to education, medical assistance and services until they return to their land. However, Israel opposes this return and has resorted to lobbying Western countries to dismantle the UNRWA to prevent the return of these refugees. Israel claims that the UNRWA “perpetuates the refugee issue.” In 2017, Netanyahu called for the organization to be dismantled and merged with the main UN refugee agency. Israel has accused UNRWA of inciting anti-Israel sentiments. However, the agency claims that it does not teach hate nor are the funds being used to support Hamas and has questioned “the motivation of those who make such claims.”
Third, the impending humanitarian crisis. The UNRWA, Gaza's largest humanitarian provider, has around 3,000 essential staff. According to the agency, nearly two million out of Gaza's 2.3 million residents rely on the agency's assistance. Human Rights Watch has said that war has rendered 85 per cent of Gaza's population homeless and susceptible to famine and illness, with the healthcare system on the verge of collapse. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), 36 hospitals have stopped functioning, while fifteen are functioning at three times their capacity. The shelters have become cramped spaces conducive to the transmission of infectious diseases. Tens of thousands have resorted to makeshift tents and plastic sheet shelters, which barely protect them from such elements. Several Palestinians view UNRWA as their final safeguard against the catastrophe.
In perspective
The halting of financial support to UNRWA signifies the end of international support in a region that has been ravaged by war. If Western countries continue to withhold their funding, it will be necessary for OPEC nations to step forward and take on the responsibility to bridge the gap. As two million people are dependent on the aid received from the organisation, without continued funding, the UNRWA will be unable to fulfil the humanitarian needs of the war-affected population. If the alleged staff were indeed involved in the attacks, the credibility of the UNRWA would be in jeopardy, potentially necessitating the cessation of its operations. While Israel-UNRWA tensions peak, Israel is likely to use the war as a facade to get rid of the organisation.
France: Farmer protests continue despite government measures
Padmashree Anandhan
In the news
On 30 January, following continued protests across France, French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal reiterated the announced measures, including opening of an aid scheme for livestock, doubling support to those farmers in the Brittany region, and a schedule for payment under the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) by 15 March. Attal stated: “…there must be a French agricultural exception.” He affirmed, “…the commitment of the president of the Republic to a new tax cut of EUR two billion.”
On 29 January, farmers once again blocked eight points of major highways following two weeks of protest across France using tractors. In response, France’s Minister of Interior, Gérald Darmanin, asked the police forces to show restraint and warned farmers not to block key spots including Paris's Charles de Gaulle, Orly airports and the Rungis international wholesale food market in the south. Close to 15,000 police and gendarmes were deployed to prevent the spreading of the protests in Paris.
Issues at large
First, the problem of the EU’s CAP plan. France’s Common Agricultural Policies (CAP) in 2021 was approved in July 2023 by the European Commission. As per the plan, fair income and competitiveness were promised through payments per hectare and allocation of EUR 3.5 billion additionally to small and mid-sized farms. With the droughts in place, delay in the reform and financial package with unpaid subsidies has become one of the key causes of high costs for agricultural products leading to the protests, and the subsequent stalling of progress towards resilient agricultural practise. The emergency measures announced by Attal on simplifying technical procedures, ending fuel taxes on farm vehicles, and assurance to not sign the European free-trade deal became ineffective.
Second, criticism against environmental regulation. Farmers have long been criticised for not being environment-friendly. According to the report in France 24 published in February 2023, the food industry contributed to 25 per cent of the greenhouse emissions. The emissions recorded were mainly from the use of fossil fuels for transportation, the use of machines in agriculture and food processing industries, and nitrogen fertilisers. Since then, France has insisted on opting for a transition towards sustainable agricultural practices to reduce the carbon footprint. France has taken a few steps, including reducing herd sizes in 2021, as part of its National Low-Carbon Strategy for agriculture and to make agriculture practise more climate resilient. However, farmers face a larger burden without enough subsidies.
Third, protest against the unfair foreign competition. Besides environmental regulation, French farmers compete against farmers from Belgium, Poland and Brazil. According to a report by France 24, “France imported more than one chicken out of two consumed in 2022 from abroad.” The farmers highlighted that the products produced across the world, that were made in France, continue to dominate due to cheaper rates and strict standards of less pesticide, sequestering carbon, allotting more land for solar panels and four per cent of arable land to conserve biodiversity. Additionally, the French farmers claimed that they are produced with no compensation for the high cost incurred.
In perspective
First, pressure on the government to act on the delay. The protests which started on 18 January have been prolonged for two weeks, inflicting pressure on the government. This has pushed Macron’s administration to restart the pledged reforms and bring back the tax cuts and subsidies, fearing potential food shortages and a supply block. Another reason behind the government’s rapid response and negotiation with the farmer unions to control protests is the European Parliament elections, where Macron’s party is facing challenges from the far-right National Rally.
Second, the agricultural crisis triggered by the war. Similar to other European countries such as Germany, Belgium, Poland and the Netherlands, France also faces challenges in allotting funds to the agricultural sector. The key trigger to the protests in France was the economic crunch caused by the war in Ukraine. Since the war began, the French government has prioritised ensuring energy supply, strengthening defence within, and providing aid to Ukraine, thus leaving out the agricultural sector. This has led to increased costs of production and strict regulations, making it difficult for farmers to operate, considering that they did not receive any profits or compensations.
Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso's termination from ECOWAS and regional challenges
Anu Maria Joseph
In the news
On 28 January, Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso announced that they were leaving the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). The announcement came alongside all three countries being suspended from the bloc after recent military takeovers. The three governments stated that the withdrawal was a “sovereign decision.” They jointly stated that the bloc had “drifted from the ideals of its founding fathers and the spirit of Pan-Africanism." They stated that the bloc, "under the influence of foreign powers, betraying its founding principles, has become a threat to member states and peoples." They added that the bloc failed to address insecurity in their countries while imposing “illegal, illegitimate, inhumane and irresponsible sanctions.”
The same day, in response, ECOWAS stated: “Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali remain important members of the Community and the Authority remains committed to finding a negotiated solution to the political impasse.”
On 29 January, Sierra Leone's Minister of Foreign Affairs and the mediator between ECOWAS and the military governments of the respective countries, Timothy Musa Kabba, denied the accusations, describing it as “unfortunate.” He added that the bloc’s objective was to “find a solution to the impasse” and ensure peace and stability in the region.
On 30 January, Nigeria, the chair of the bloc, accused all three countries of letting down its people’s interests, stating: "Unelected leaders engage in a public posturing to deny their people the sovereign right to make fundamental choices over their freedom of movement, freedom to trade and freedom to choose their own leaders.”
Issues at large
First, tensions between Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, and ECOWAS. The relations between the bloc and the three countries strained after the military coups- Niger in July 2023, Burkina Faso in January 2022 and Mali in August 2020. The bloc had called on all countries to restore civilian rule. However, the military leaders have been postponing the civilian transition citing the restoration of security before elections. Niger’s junta asserted that they need at least three years for a transition. Mali was supposed to hold elections in February; this was postponed without further details. Burkina Faso has planned to conduct elections this year, but the military claimed that fighting insurgency is their priority. ECOWAS has been mediating with the juntas for a civilian transition. However, suspension from the bloc, sanctions and failed negotiations, and the threat of a military intervention following the coup in Niger increased the tensions. Additionally, in December, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso signed a mutual defence pact against any foreign military intervention and established the Alliance of Shael States (AES).
Second, the role of external actors. External actors, including France and the US, called on the military leaders to reverse the coup. French President Emmanuel Macron announced support for ECOWAS’ planned military intervention in Niger against its refusal to reinstate deposed President Mohamed Bazoum. This came after France lost its bilateral, security and economic ties with all three countries following the widespread anti-French sentiments and accusations of French interference in internal affairs. French troops had to withdraw from Mali in November 2022, Burkina Faso in February 2023 and Niger in December 2023; all following military coups. They accused France of influencing ECOWAS to impose sanctions and carry out military intervention. Besides, following the deteriorated ties with the West amidst the sanctions, especially France, the three military governments have established military ties with alternative powers, including Russia and Iran.
Third, the role of sanctions. ECOWAS, the African Union, the EU and the US had imposed sanctions on all three countries calling to reverse the coups; however, sanctions have failed. Although sanctions on Mali and Burkina Faso were lifted, Niger continues to face severe repercussions under sanctions. In Niger, ECOWAS imposed the closure of land and air borders, a no-fly zone for commercial flights, suspended financial transactions and froze assets of the countries in ECOWAS’ central banks. It disrupted livelihood and exacerbated humanitarian crises. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), in Niger, the number of people facing food security doubled from 3.3 million following the coup. Niger shares a 1,608 kilometres long border with Nigeria where nearly 8.5 million people from several border towns depend on cross-border trade. The border closure has disrupted the livelihood of a larger population, with rising cost of living, inflation and business losses.
In perspective
First, the withdrawal of Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso from ECOWAS was not unexpected. All three governments had implicated no intention to adhere to what they claimed as a France-influenced ECOWAS. The new Sahel alliance was the first step towards implying its intention for a sub-region of like-minded countries independent of ECOWAS. A withdrawal from the 49-year-old bloc would potentially change the regional dynamics. With a strengthening military regime bloc, further coups are likely to happen with military leaders wanting to join the new Sahel bloc. A non-allegiance to ECOWAS would also imply that a democratic transition in all three countries is idealistic in the near future.
Second, the sanctions always backfired. With sanctions in place and insurgency on pace, the repercussions would not limit to Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso. The spillover effect would extend to the whole of West Africa. While the new alliance seeks security collaborations, with deteriorated ties with the West and the rest of the region, these countries lack the capacity, funding and equipment to sustain it. This would imply an increased jihadist and rebel insurgency in the region.
Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Akriti Sharma, Alka Bala, Vetriselvi Baskaran, Akhil Ajith, Rohini Reenum, Rishika Yadav, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Padmashree Anandhan, Dhriti Mukherjee, Shamini Velayutham and Narmatha S
East and Southeast Asia
China: Claims over the Scarborough Shoal
On 30 January, a Chinese Coast Guard spokesperson stated that China has an indisputable claim over the Scarborough Shoal and its nearby waters. He added that the four Philippine personnel, who illegally intruded on certain areas on 28 January were warned to leave. and that the interaction was by law and was professional and standardised. China claims the entire South China Sea, which has angered its neighbours and caused multiple accusations and run-offs between China and the Philippines.
China: Philippines to sign Coast Guard deal with Vietnam amid threat from Beijing
On 25 January, Philippine President Marcos Jr announced his plan to visit Hanoi to sign a Coast Guard cooperation with Vietnam. Amid their competing claims in the South China Sea, the two countries would sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for greater cooperation between their coast guards. The deal aims to reduce the risk of clashes between the fishing vessels and encroachment into each other’s waters.
Australia: Albanese says Canberra is a “security partner of choice” for Papua New Guinea
On 30 January, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese stressed that the country is the “security partner of choice” for Papua New Guinea. The statement came in light of Papua New Guinea expressing open support for China, seeking a security and policy deal. Earlier in 2023, China offered to assist Papua New Guinea with training the police force and providing equipment and surveillance technology. Albanese stated that the talks between China and Papua New Guinea were in the early stages and that the Pacific country would not want to “jeopardise” its relations with Australia and the US.
North Korea: Hwasal-2 strategic cruise missile tested
On 31 January, North Korea announced that it had successfully conducted the test drill of the Hwasal-2 strategic cruise missile. The launch was meant to check its rapid counterattack posture and improve its strategic striking capability. The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that the test missile launched into the Yellow Sea did not raise any security threat for the neighbouring countries. It first test-fired the Hwasal-1 and Hwasal-2 cruise missiles in September 2021 and January 2022, respectively. The Hwasal-2 missile has a flight range of 2,000 kilometres.
Pacific: The US deploys three aircraft carriers in the Pacific for joint exercises with Tokyo
On 31 January, the US Navy deployed three aircraft carriers in the Pacific to conduct joint naval exercises with Japan in the Philippine Sea. The US Navy deployment was part of its efforts to deter China and North Korea. The US Navy was joined by USS Carl Vinson and USS Theodore Roosevelt. The USS Ronald Reagan was deployed as a forward aircraft carrier in Yokosuka, Japan. According to Rear Admiral Christopher Alexander, the US Navy was paying attention to the Indo-Pacific Region, and its recent demonstrations imply that the US was not distracted by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
South Asia
Pakistan: TTP launches new wing ‘Istrna’ to target Punjab police
On 29 January, Dawn reported that the Dera Ghazi Khan region police were on high alert as the banned militant group, Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), had reportedly launched a new wing named ‘Istrna’ targeting Punjab police personnel. Three Dera Ghazi Khan check posts- Lakhani, Jhangi and Triman- were vulnerable as they are located along the hard tribal areas along the provincial borders. The TTP wing, initially composed of nearly 12 militants, was suspected to have increased its members to around 50. The Pakistan Army has increased its presence in Dera Ghazi Khan. The Dera Ghazi Khan Regional Police Officer, Sajjad Hussain Manj, confirmed the existence of the new TTP group and stated that efforts were on track to trace and eliminate them.
Pakistan: Nine killed in targeted attack on Pakistani workers in Iran
On 27 January, armed assailants targeted a room in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province, where 13 Pakistani labourers from Lodhran and Muzaffargarh were staying. The Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported that nine people were killed and two were critically injured in the firing. Survivors stated that the attackers instructed all Pakistanis to stand before firing indiscriminately. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned the attack and initiated an investigation.
Pakistan: Iran and Pakistan’s foreign ministers to discuss bilateral ties amidst missile exchange fallout
On 28 January, The Express Tribune reported that the Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hossein Amirabdollahian, would meet with his Pakistani counterpart in Islamabad to address the recent strain in bilateral ties caused by missile exchanges. The talks followed the killing of nine Pakistani labourers in Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan province, prompting Pakistan to urge an investigation. Amirabdollahian assured that Tehran aimed to safeguard regional peace and friendship. The ministers would discuss “new terms of engagement,” seeking reconciliation.
Pakistan: Security forces thwart coordinated terror attacks in Balochistan
On 30 January, Balochistan’s Interim Minister of Information, Jan Achakzai, revealed that six militants were killed after security forces thwarted three coordinated terror attacks in the Mach area of Balochistan province. Previously, Achakzai had blamed terrorists affiliated with the Aslam Acho group for the attack; however, the Majeed Brigade of the proscribed Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for the attack later.
Pakistan: 19 Pakistanis rescued from Somali pirates by the Indian Navy
On 30 January, the Indian Navy revealed that it had rescued an Iranian-flagged fishing vessel, Al Naeemi, hijacked by the Somali pirates. The rescue occurred off the Somali coast, 850 nautical miles (1,574 kilometres) west of the Indian city of Kochi on 29 January. An Indian Navy spokesperson stated that the warship INS Sumitra “compelled the safe release” of the 19 Pakistani crew members. The crew had been taken hostage by 11 Somali pirates. In January, Indian forces rescued 17 crew members of another Iranian-flagged fishing vessel, Iman, taken hostage by the Somali pirates. The incidents have fuelled concerns regarding a resurgence of pirate attacks off the coast of Somalia.
Pakistan: TTP receives “significant backing” from Al Qaeda and Afghan Taliban, says UN
On 1 February, Dawn reported that the 33rd report submitted by the ISIL (aka Daesh) and Al Qaeda/Taliban Monitoring to the United Nations Security Council Committee revealed “significant backing” from Al Qaeda and other factions including the Afghan Taliban for the banned Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) for conducting attacks in Pakistan. It argued that the support extended beyond arms provision and included “active on-ground assistance.” Despite the Afghan Taliban’s official stance against TTP’s activities outside Afghanistan, the group has continued its cross-border attacks into Pakistan. The report further highlighted the establishment of a new TTP base in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Al Qaeda’s role in training, guidance and resource allocation.
Sri Lanka: Internet safety bill passed amid protests
On 24 January, Sri Lanka passed the Online Safety Act to regulate online content. The act provides the government power to assess and remove "prohibited" content on the internet while maintaining a check on cybercrime. However, there were several protests against the bill by the opposition and right groups, which claimed that the act was a tool to curb dissent and suppress voices against the government ahead of elections. According to BBC, a Sri Lankan pro-democracy group stated that the “government's adamant pursuit of the legislation was a clear indication of its intention to silent dissent and suppress civic activism as the country was still reeling from the consequences of its worst economic crisis.”
India: Ongoing violence in Manipur
On 30 January, two people belonging to the Meitei community were killed and three were injured during heavy firing that took place in the Imphal West district in Manipur. Previously that week, a village volunteer was killed in a gunfighting between armed people from the Meiti and Kuki-Zo communities. The Manipur police said that the search operations in the area were ongoing.
Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa
Iran: US warned before the Kerman bombings
On 26 January, Al Jazeera reported that the US had warned Iran that the Islamic State was preparing to carry out a terrorist attack before the twin blasts that killed nearly 100 people in the southeastern city of Kerman on 3 January. An official told Al Jazeera that “the US government followed a longstanding ‘duty to warn’ policy that has been implemented across administrations to warn governments against potential lethal threats.” He added that “we provide these warnings in part because we do not want to see innocent lives lost in terror attacks.”
Israel: Three militants killed by special forces in West Bank
On 30 January, three Palestinian terrorists were killed by Israeli troops during an undercover operation in a hospital in the city of Jenin, West Bank. According to Israeli authorities, the three individuals were involved in planning an attack akin to the one carried out on 7 October 2023 by Hamas.
Syria: US troops killed at border
On 29 January, a drone strike on a US base near the Jordan-Syria border killed three US soldiers. US President Joe Biden asserted that the attack was carried out by Iran-backed militant groups. However, Iran rejected its involvement in the attack.
Lebanon: IDF hits the operational headquarters of Hezbollah
On 30 January, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) claimed that Israeli Air Force (IAF) jets attacked an observation station and Hezbollah’s operational headquarters in the Al-Khiam region of Lebanon. Furthermore, the IDF reported that it bombed an observation station and a military facility near the towns of Ayta ash Shab and Mhaibib. According to the IDF, no casualties were reported.
Yemen: Ten Houthi drones targeted by US Military
On 1 February, the US military launched strikes in Yemen against ten drones that are part of the Houthi rebels. The US military’s Central Command (CENTCOM) stated: “This action will protect freedom of navigation and make international waters safer and more secure for US Navy vessels and merchant vessels.” On 31 January, the Houthis stated that all US and UK warships engaged in aggression against Yemen were to be targeted.
Sudan: Fight between armed groups in Abyei region
On 29 January, BBC Africa reported on the two armed groups carrying out raids in the disputed Abyei region between Sudan and South Sudan. The Ngok and Twic ethnic armed groups from South Sudan’s Warrap state have been fighting since 27 January over land. South Sudan and Sudan claim ownership over the Abyei region and the conflict over the claims has remained unresolved since 2011. Abyei Special Administrative Area authorities mentioned that at least 42 people, mostly women and children, were killed in the attack, adding that the Twics had been carrying out a series of "barbaric coordinated attacks." On 29 January, the UNIFSA stated: "Currently, according to local authorities, 52 civilians have lost their lives, while 64 others are said to be gravely wounded."
Ethiopia: Starvation deaths in Tigray and Amhara
On 31 January, BBC reported on the severe food insecurity in the Tigray and Amhara regions of Ethiopia. The government had previously denied the starvation death reports issued by the local officials. According to the national ombudsman, nearly 400 people have died out of hunger and food insecurity in the Tigray and Amhara regions in recent months. Ethiopia's Ombudsman had sent experts to study the cases in the region and concluded that 351 died in Tigray and 44 in Amhara. The memo by the Tigray Food Cluster says that only 14 per cent of 3.2 million people get food aid from humanitarian agencies in Tigray this month. Following a large grain scam in Tigray in March last year, the UN and the US suspended food supply to the region. According to the UN, nearly 20.1 million people across Ethiopia need humanitarian aid due to drought, conflict and a poor economy.
Cameroon: Militant attack kills a civilian
On 30 January, BBC reported on a violent militant attack in the capital city of Buae in Cameroon. One civilian was reportedly killed. The Anglophone rebels have been carrying out frequent attacks demanding a separate state for decades. Recently, they have been forcing the residents to carry out the so-called “ghost-town” protests to halt economic activities.
Niger: 22 people killed in suspected jihadist attack
On 30 January, BBC Africa reported that at least 22 people were killed in a suspected jihadist attack in Motagatta village bordering Nigeria. BBC quoted an unidentified official who told AFP news agency that attackers came in motorbikes and began shooting people. Although the military government mentioned opacity on the origin of the attack, jihadist insurgency in Niger has risen since 2015.
Europe
Russia: Claims and counterclaims over Ilyushin Il-76 aircraft crash
On 26 January, after Russia claimed Ukraine shot down its military transport plane Ilyushin Il-76, the former called for a meeting of the UN Security Council. Russia’s Deputy Ambassador, Dmitry Polyanskiy, stated: “All of the information that we have today shows that we are dealing with a premeditated, thought through crime.” He added that Ukraine's leadership was well aware of the route and the information on soldier transit. Ukraine's Deputy Ambassador, Khrystyna Hayovyshyn, countered that “Ukraine was not informed about the number of vehicles, roads and means of transportation of the captives.” On the same day, Russian President, Vladimir Putin, stated that the investigation report of the plane crash would be released in a few days. He claimed that Ukraine “did it by mistake or thoughtlessly,” but was regardless responsible for the plane crash. On 25 January, Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, called for an international investigation into the crash of the Ilyushin Il-76 aircraft. He accused Russia of “playing with the lives of Ukrainian prisoners.”
Russia: Drone attack on Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery
On 29 January, the Governor of Yaroslavl Oblast in Russia, Mikhail Yevrayev, claimed that Russian air defences had thwarted a drone attack on the Slavneft-YANOS oil refinery in the region. Yevrayev asserted that there were “no injuries, no fire,” and that “law enforcement agencies and special services” were at the site. This development followed a series of drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, which to an extent disrupted fuel production.
The Americas
Venezuela: Vice President responds to US’ reimposition of sanctions
On 30 January, Venezuela’s Vice President, Delcy Rodriguez, stated that “all of Venezuela rejected the rude and improper blackmail and ultimatum” by the US government. This was in response to the US decision to reinstate oil and gas sanctions, and warning of deporting Venezuelan migrants without documents in the US. Additionally, the US Department of Treasury gave US entities the deadline of 13 February to end transactions with a Venezuelan mining company. The US decided to reimpose sanctions after Venezuela’s Supreme Court announced on 26 January that it would uphold a ban on opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, which she described as “judicial criminality.” The US has claimed that actions by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, including the ban on Machado were “inconsistent with the agreements” signed between the two countries. Rodriguez warned that if the US took “the wrong step of intensifying the economic aggression against Venezuela … as of February 13 repatriation flights for Venezuelan migrants would be immediately cancelled.”
Mexico: Return of bullfighting after two years sparks protests
On 28 January, Mexico City held its first bullfight since 2022, leading to protests by animal rights activists. Although a judge had sided with animal rights activists and ordered the indefinite suspension of the practice, the Supreme Court revoked the decision in December 2023. Protesters assembled near the bullfighting arena, stating that “torture is not art, it is not culture,” and called for an end to the “deaths of innocents.” As per the Humane Society International, bullfights kill 250,000 bulls annually. Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has suggested holding a referendum on the future of bullfighting in Mexico.
Brazil: Police search properties linked to Jair Bolsonaro’s son in spy probe
On 29 January, Brazilian federal police conducted searches on properties connected to Carlos Bolsonaro, son of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, as part of an investigation into alleged illegal spying on political opponents during his father’s presidency. Carlos Bolsonaro, already under investigation for running a fake news agency, faces accusations of using data illegally collected by the Brazilian Intelligence Agency (Abin). The probe is focused on clandestine actions by Abin during Bolsonaro’s term, with suspicions that Carlos Bolsonaro may have utilised the data to spread fake news against his father’s opponents.
Peru: Former intelligence could face 25 years in jail for involvement in 1992 massacre of farmers
On 29 January, the intelligence chief of former Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori, Vladimiro Montesinos, pleaded guilty to charges of homicide, murder, and forced disappearances linked to the 1992 massacre of six farmers. The farmers were executed as they were accused of being part of a rebel group. Prosecutors are hoping to secure a sentence of 25 years for Montesinos, who has been imprisoned since 2001 due to corruption schemes and human rights violations.
Haiti: Government takes decisive steps to address violence
On 30 January, Haiti’s Prime Minister, Ariel Henry, met with officials from countries including the US, Canada, Japan and Germany along with the UN, and the EU which are part of an international committee to strengthen Haiti’s police department. Henry’s office stated that the program aims at the operational and institutional reinforcement of Haiti’s National Police to help them fight gangs and generate money for this. On 29 January, a week after Henry announced the National Agency for Protected Areas would be restructured to deal with “serious problems of internal dysfunction,” the government announced a crackdown on the heavily armed state environmental department. Agents of the department were blamed for clashes with the police, and were restricted from circulating within towns unless it was to “improve the security climate of the country and to bring peace and tranquillity for all Haitians.” Further, the head of the agency, Jeantel Joseph, was dismissed after being accused of prompting agents to call for Henry’s resignation.
Colombia: Government and largest rebel group to “strengthen” ongoing ceasefire
On 29 January, Colombia’s government and the country’s largest rebel group, the National Liberation Army (ELN), stated that the ongoing ceasefire which began in March 2023 and was set to expire on 29 January, would be extended by a week while talks between both sides would continue in Cuba. Both sides have agreed to abide by the ceasefire’s conditions, which were introduced to “improve the humanitarian situation” of violence-affected areas. The ELN has complained that the military launched operations in areas under their control during the ceasefire, adding that kidnappings would only be stopped if alternate sources of income for their operations were given.
The US: Biden says he is not looking for a “wider war in the Middle East”
On 30 January, US President Joe Biden stated that although he decided to respond to the strike that killed three US troops near the Jordan-Syria border on 28 January, he did not want the war in the Middle East to escalate. The White House national security spokesperson, John Kirby, voiced similar views stating that the US would take a “tiered approach,” and that all action would be taken in an “appropriate fashion.”
The US: Talks held to end military coalition with Iraq
On 27 January, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani, and top officials from both the Iraqi military forces and the US-led coalition, met in Baghdad. Al-Sudani’s office stated: “Military experts will oversee ending the military mission of the Global Coalition against Daesh [ISIL], a decade after its initiation and after it achieved its mission in partnership with Iraqi security and military forces.” Approximately 2,500 US troops were deployed in Iraq as part of a coalition created in 2014 to assist the Iraqi government in defeating ISIL. The US stated that it plans to form a committee to negotiate the terms of the mission’s termination, which were discussed in 2023.
Newsmakers This Week
Imran Khan: Cricketer turned Prime Minister receives two jail sentences
Dhriti Mukherjee
On 31 January, Pakistan’s former Prime Minister, Imran Khan, and his wife, Bushra Bibi, were sentenced to 14 years in jail and were ordered to pay a USD 5.3 million fine. This sentence was part of the Toshakhana case, under which both Khan and Bibi were accused of selling state gifts. Separately, on 30 January, Khan was sentenced to ten years in prison in the Cipher case. This case revolved around allegations accusing Khan of leaking secret diplomatic correspondence from Pakistan’s ambassador in Washington to Islamabad.
Khan, a former cricket star turned politician, served as the Prime Minister of Pakistan from August 2018 to April 2022. He gained global recognition for his cricketing achievements, leading Pakistan to its first World Cup victory in 1992. In 1996, Khan founded the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party, and rose to fame through his promise of changing Pakistan from a “small group of wealthy and a sea of poor” to an ideal example of an “Islamic welfare state.” However, after winning the 2018 elections, he faced mass criticism for sidelining political opponents and several economic issues. He was thus ousted from power in 2022.
Since then, Khan has faced dozens of criminal charges. The Cipher case revolves around the diplomatic document Cipher, which Khan allegedly failed to return. The Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) filed an FIR in August 2023, accusing Khan and Qureshi of communicating information from the classified document to the public, violating the Official Secrets Act. In March 2022, Imran claimed to have proof of a foreign conspiracy to topple his government, supported by “foreign funding.” The Cipher’s contents, published by the Intercept, indicated US objections to Pakistan’s stance on the Ukraine crisis, forming the basis of Imran’s claim of a US conspiracy. The PTI and Khan’s lawyers have objected to proceedings being conducted in “kangaroo courts” in a manner that did not allow Khan to defend himself.
These events coincide with Pakistan’s upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled on 8 February. Despite being barred from running due to a prior criminal conviction, Khan’s influence remains potent, evidenced by his grassroots following and anti-establishment rhetoric. PTI has asserted that they were not given a level playing field in the run-up to elections, bringing up instances of their party symbol being banned and internet disruptions during their online campaigns. Khan’s trial and the sidelining of the PTI have led to people questioning the fairness of the elections. On 30 January, Khan urged his supporters to “take revenge for every injustice” with their vote.
ICJ ruling against Israel
Shamini Velayutham
On 26 January, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) announced its preliminary decision in a case that South Africa filed accusing Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. At the ruling, Israel was ordered to take all reasonable steps to prevent incitement to genocide, ensure aid and services reach Palestinians under siege in Gaza, and preserve evidence of crimes committed in Gaza. The judges stated: “At least some of the acts and omissions alleged by South Africa to have been committed by Israel in Gaza appear to be capable of falling within the provisions of the (Genocide) Convention.” However, the court did not order an instant ceasefire in Gaza. In addition, the court expressed its “deep concern” about the fate of the hostages being held in Gaza and urged the Hamas and other armed organisations to free the prisoners promptly and unconditionally. At least 15 justices voted in favour of enforcing the so-called provisional measures. UN experts stated that the historic decision by the ICJ offers the first real hope to safeguard civilians in Gaza who are suffering from apocalyptic humanitarian conditions, destruction, mass casualties, injuries and irreversible trauma. The Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, called the accusation of genocide against his country “outrageous” and vowed to take all measures to protect itself.
This Week in History
1 February 2021: Three years of Coup d’état of Myanmar
Alka Bala
On 1 February 2021, Myanmar’s military, Tatmadaw, arbitrarily seized power from the elected government and detained its civilian leader Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint post raids in the capital city Naypyidaw. Tatmadaw, by invoking Article 417 of the 2008 constitution, declared a “state of national emergency” for a year. The military charged Suu Kyi with nineteen criminal charges, including allegations of corruption and violation of the Official Secrets Act, sentencing her to prison for 26 years. Power was transferred to the military by invoking Article 418, which handed over the control of all three organs of government to the commander-in-chief, General Min Aung Hlaing. The junta justified this takeover by citing the irregular elections in 2020, highlighting discrepancies in the voter lists and the failure of the Union Election Commission to resolve the issue. The National League for Democracy, led by Aung San Suu Kyi, had come to power post a landslide victory in the 2020 elections. The claims of irregularities in the election were rejected by the election commission and international and domestic observers due to lack of evidence.
To advance its coup, the military halted communications and internet in the country and blocked banks and other financial services. Media and radio services were also abruptly shut down obstructing the flow of information among the citizens. In April 2022, a shadow government, the National Unity Government was formed by the elected officials who were ousted by the military. Civil disobedience and resistance from the citizens were met with a violent response from the junta, where more than 15,500 people were arrested as of September 2022.
The international response to the coup was marked with condemnation and criticism, where the UN Secretary-General, António Gutters, declared the coup as a “serious blow to democratic reforms.” Myanmar’s transition to democracy was in a fragile state, which worsened after the military takeover, with reports of human rights abuses and instances of increasing state-based violence. Targeted sanctions were placed by the US and the UK aimed to drain out Junta’s revenue resources. However, the supply of arms by Russia and China to Myanmar and its diplomatic support helped the junta survive the sanctions. Although General Min Aung Hlaing signed the Five Point Consensus drawn up by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) aimed at ending the violence and solving the political crisis through dialogue, it did not materialise into real actions.
In 2021, the junta promised to hold elections after one year of state emergency, however, they extended the emergency four times and postponed elections as resistance fighting began in Sagaing, Magway, Bago Tanintharyi regions and Karen, Kayah and Chin states. Currently, the resistance movement against the junta, labelled Operation 1027 by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, is gaining momentum by taking control of 422 junta bases and seven towns indicating an eventual handover of power from the junta government.
About the authors
Nuha Aamina and Alka Bala are Undergraduate scholars at St Joseph’s University, Bangalore.
Akriti Sharma and Rohini Reenum are PhD Scholars at NIAS.
Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Dhriti Mukherjee, Akhil Ajith and Shamini Velayutham are Research Assistants at NIAS.
Vetriselvi Baskaran and Narmatha S are Postgraduate scholars at the University of Madras.
The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of any institutions or organisations.
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By young scholars of NIAS Course on Global Politics: Contemporary World Order and Theories. Compiled by Sayeka Ghosh.
By the NIAS-IPRI Course scholars on Contemporary Conflicts, Peace Processes, Theories and Thinkers. Compiled by Ayan Datta.
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Bibhu Prasad Routray
Nithyashree RB
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Jerry Franklin A
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NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
Lakshmi Parimala
GP Team
IPRI Team
Padmashree Anandhan
Sneha Surendran
GP Team
Padmashree Anandhan
IPRI Team
Rishika Yadav, Sneha Surendran, Sandra D Costa, Ryan Marcus, Prerana P and Nithyashree RB
GP Team
Harini Madhusudan, Rishika Yada, Sneha Surendran, Prerana P, Sreeja JS and Padmashree Anandhan
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IPRI Team
Bibhu Prasad Routray
NIAS Africa Team
Anu Maria Joseph
Jerry Franklin
IPRI Team
Bibhu Prasad Routray
NIAS Africa Team
Jerry Franklin
Anu Maria Joseph
GP Team
IPRI Team
Anu Maria Joseph
GP Team
Rishika Yadav, Sreeja JS, Nithyashree RB, and Melvin George
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Sreeja JS
Rishika Yadav
Padmashree Anandhan
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
Devjyoti Saha
Indrani Talukdar
Debangana Chatterjee
Kasturi Chatterjee
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IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
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IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
Padmashree Anandhan
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
Sourina Bej
GP Team
Padmashree Anandhan
Padmashree Anandhan
D Suba Chandran
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IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
IPRI Team
Avishka Ashok
Madhura Mahesh
Padmashree Anandhan
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Anu Maria Joseph
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Sethuraman Nadarajan
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GP Team
GP Team
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GP Team
Allen Joe Mathew, Sayani Rana, Joel Jacob
Ankit Singh
Bhoomika Sesharaj
Madhura Mahesh
Harini Madhusudan
Avishka Ashok
Akriti Sharma
Padmashree Anandhan
Poulomi Mondal
Mohaimeen Khan
Padmashree Anandhan
Madhura Mahesh
Padmashree Anandhan
Janardhan G
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Anu Maria Joseph
Apoorva Sudhakar
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IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
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GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
NIAS Africa Team
NIAS Africa Team
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GP Team
IPRI Team
Vignesh Ram
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Harini Madhusudan, Rishma Banerjee, Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan, and Avishka Ashok
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Rashmi BR and Akriti Sharma
Rashmi Ramesh
Rishma Banerjee
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Padmashree Anandhan
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
IPRI Team
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IPRI Team
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Angelin Archana
Shreya Upadhyay
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Debangana Chatterjee
Himani Pant
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IPRI Team
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Padmashree Anandhan
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IPRI Team
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NIAS Africa Team
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
GP Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
Sourina Bej
Padmashree Anandhan
Padmashree Anandhan
NIAS Africa Team
NIAS Africa Team
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
STIR Team
GP Team
Padmashree Anandhan
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
Padmashree Anandhan
Avishka Ashok
NIAS Africa Team
STIR Team
STIR Team
STIR Team
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GP Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
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STIR Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
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IPRI Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
Padmashree Anandhan
Rishma Banerjee
Rashmi Ramesh
Sourina Bej
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IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
STIR Team
NIAS Africa Team
Naina Singh
GP Team
Amit Gupta
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
STIR Team
STIR Team
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
Anu Maria Joseph
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
Joeana Cera Matthews
NIAS Africa Team
NIAS Africa Team
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GP Team
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Shalini Balaiah
Angelin Archana
Prakash Panneerselvam
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GP Team
Apoorva Sudhakar
Joeana Cera Matthews
Padmashree Anandhan
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Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Sneha M
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Abigail Miriam Fernandez
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Ankit Singh
Ankit Singh
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Sneha M
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Sneha M
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Apoorva Sudhakar
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GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
GP Team
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GP Team
GP Team
GP Team
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Harshita Rathore
GP Team
Apoorva Sudhakar
Ankit Singh
Ankit Singh
Sneha M
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GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
Ankit Singh
Apoorva Sudhakar
Ankit Singh
IPRI Team
GP Team
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Vaishnavi Iyer
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Sneha M
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Apoorva Sudhakar
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Padmashree Anandhan
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D. Suba Chandran
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STIR Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
Aswathy Koonampilly
GP Team
IPRI Team
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GP Team
Sourina Bej
Harini Madhusudan
Vineeth Daniel Vinoy
GP Team
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GP Team
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GP Team
Juan Mary Joseph
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Bhuvan Ningania
STIR Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
Lokendra Sharma
GP Team
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Apoorva Sudhakar
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GP Team
Jeshil J Samuel
STIR Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
STIR Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
Keerthana Rajesh Nambiar
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Anu Maria Joseph
Sankalp Gurjar
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GP Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
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GP Team
IPRI Team
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Sarthak Jain
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IPRI Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
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GP Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
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GP Team
Harini Madhusudan
Apoorva Sudhakar
IPRI Team
GP Team
GP Team
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Akriti Sharma
Avishka Ashok
Apoorva Sudhakar
Sukanya Bali
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
Apoorva Sudhakar
Avishka Ashok
Harini Madhusudan
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Sukanya Bali
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
GP Team
IPRI Team
N Manoharan and Drorima Chatterjee
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
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Aparupa Bhattacherjee
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GP Team
Rashmi Ramesh
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GP Team
Harini Madhusudan
IPRI Team
Harini Madhusudan
GP Team
IPRI Team
Sukanya Bali
GP Team
Savithri Sellapperumage
GP Team
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GP Team
GP Team
Harini Madhusudan
Rashmi Ramesh
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Srikumar Pullat
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GP Team
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Harini Madhusudan
Lokendra Sharma
GP Team
Nancy Pathak
Shreya Sinha
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GP Team
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GP Team
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GP Team
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Harini Madhusudan
Samreen Wani
GP Team
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GP Team
IPRI Team
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GP Team
GP Team
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Harini Sha P
Rashmi Ramesh
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Harini Madhusudan
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Jenice Jean Goveas
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Harini Madhusudan
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GP Team
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Aparupa Bhattacherjee
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Shailesh Nayak
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Rashmi Ramesh
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Harini Madhusudan
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Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
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Harini Madhusudan
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Harini Madhusudan
GP Team
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
GP Team
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GP Team
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Nasima Khatoon
Harini Madhusudhan
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Ryan Mitra
Hely Desai
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Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Harini Madhusudhan
Druta Bhatt
Divyabharathi E
Apoorva Sudhakar
Divyabharathi E
Oishee Majumdar
D. Suba Chandran
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Gayan Gowramma KC
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Harini Madhusudan
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Miti Shah
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Manushi Kapadia
Miti Shah
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Hely Desai
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Samreen Wani
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Ann Maria Shibu
Dhruv Ashok
Lakshmi V Menon
Harini Madhusudan
Jamyang Dolma
Divyabharathi E
Lakshmi V Menon
Jamyang Dolma
Shalini E
Dhruv Ashok
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