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Conflict Weekly
Elusive Negotiations over Gaza and Complex Abortion Legislations in the US
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IPRI Team
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Conflict Weekly #226, 3 May 2024, Vol.5, No.18
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI
Shamini Velayutham and Dhriti Mukherjee
Middle East: The Elusive Negotiations and the Pressure on Hamas
Shamini Velayutham
In the news
On 3 May, a Hamas delegation arrived in Egypt for negotiations and said it was "determined to achieve an agreement." US Secretary of State Antony Blinken asserted that "Hamas is the only thing standing between the people of Gaza and a ceasefire and a deal should be a 'no-brainer' for the group." He stated: "We wait to see whether, in effect, they can take yes for an answer on the ceasefire and release of hostages."
On 2 May, Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh spoke separately with Qatar's Foreign Minister and Prime Minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, and the head of Egypt's security services, Abbas Kamel. He has conferred with mediators from Egypt and Qatar over the most recent Israeli request for a ceasefire in Gaza and a prison swap. According to a Hamas official statement: "Haniyeh appreciated the role played by Egypt, which along with Qatar and the US is mediating the talks, and stressed the positive spirit of the movement in studying the ceasefire proposal."
On 30 April, amid uncertain cease-fire negotiations, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated that his country would launch a ground offensive on Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. He said: "The idea that we will stop the war before achieving all of its goals is out of the question. We will enter Rafah and we will eliminate Hamas' battalions there – with or without a deal, to achieve total victory."
On 29 April, a top Hamas delegation travelled to Egypt to prepare for the most recent round of negotiations. At discussions in Cairo facilitated by Qatar and the US, a team headed by Hamas deputy leader Khalil al-Hayya presented Hamas's response to the most recent Israeli offers. On 27 April, following up on a potential truce in Gaza proposed in early April, Hamas said it had received Israel's formal response and would review it before responding.
On 28 April, speaking at a World Economic Forum in Saudi Arabia, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken asserted that securing a truce between Israel and Hamas is the most effective approach to alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. He stated: "We were hoping to see more commitment and more seriousness on both sides." He added, "We are, with the help of our international partners, hoping that we can pressure both sides to an agreement, but right now we are seeing from both sides a lot of lack of commitment to the process itself and the mediation."
On the same day, according to British Foreign Secretary David Cameron, the current offer made to Hamas calls for the release of Palestinian prisoners as well as a long-term ceasefire of 40 days.
Issues at large
First, the pressure on Hamas. On 14 April, Hamas rejected Israel's proposal as Israel plans to continue its operations in southern Gaza. On 7 April, negotiators were in Cairo for talks. According to Egyptian authorities, some progress had been made on a three-phase agreement involving prisoners' return in exchange for a permanent truce. Still, Hamas did not concur with that assessment. In March, Israel suggested that an Arab force supervise a temporary security presence in Gaza, but the idea was turned down.
Second, Netanyahu's emphasis on military operations in Rafah. Netanyahu is determined to carry out military operations in Rafah. Approximately 1.3 million Palestinians live in the Rafah. The great majority of these people were uprooted from northern Gaza. While the rest of the world has been pressurizing Israel to give up on the idea of targeting Rafah, Netanyahu remains adamant and has threatened to carry out the military operations, irrespective of Hamas agreeing to the deal.
Third, the demands of Israel and Hamas. Hamas wants an end to hostilities permanently, and the Israeli forces leave Gaza. Other demands include the following: displaced Palestinians must be allowed to return to their homes without hindrance; additional aid must be allowed into the region; and a reconstruction effort must begin. Israel demands the release of the hostages who have been held captive since 7 October 2023.
Fourth, internal divide in Israel. If the ceasefire includes what they would perceive to be favourable to Hamas, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich have openly vowed to "dismantle" the government and remove Netanyahu. At the same time, a Member of the Israeli war cabinet, Benny Gantz, holds a different opinion. According to Gantz, freeing prisoners is "urgent" and should be the government's priority. Leader of the opposition, Yair Lapid, has also called for a compromise centred on the release of Israeli prisoners.
In perspective
While there is external pressure on Israel and Hamas, both sides seem to be sticking to their demands. While there is substantial pressure on Hamas to agree to the release, the latter is worried whether Israel will stop the military action against it. In between, the larger question of military operations in Rafah remains the biggest threat to civilians in Gaza.
The US: Contradictions in the Abortion laws in Arizona and Florida
Dhriti Mukherjee
In the news
On 2 May, Arizona's Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs signed a bill repealing the state's 1864 abortion law, which was set to take effect within weeks.
On 1 May, the Arizona Senate voted 16-14 to repeal the abortion ban after two Republican senators voted in favour of repealing the ban.
Earlier on 9 April, Arizona's Supreme Court ruled that the 160-year-old abortion law could go back into effect and ruled 4-2 in favour of making the law "enforceable" within 14 days. This ban would ban all abortions, except in cases of rape or incest, and could lead to doctors being prosecuted in the state.
Following the repeal, on 2 May, Hobbs stated: "Today, I am glad to see the Senate answered my call and voted to repeal Arizona's 1864 total abortion ban, and I look forward to quickly signing the repeal into law. This total abortion ban would have jailed doctors, threatened the lives of women across our state and stripped millions of Arizonans of their bodily autonomy."
Arizona's Attorney General Kris Mayes stated on 1 May after the Senate vote: "Rest assured, my office is exploring every option available to prevent this outrageous 160-year-old law from ever taking effect."
Separately, on 1 May, Florida's ban on most abortions after six weeks of pregnancy went into effect after the state's top court ruled 6-1 that the state's constitution did not apply to abortion access. Justices upheld Florida's existing 15-week abortion ban, which had been passed in 2022. The ban had been signed into law by Florida's Republic Governor Ron DeSantis in 2023; however, the bill was placed on hold till the 15-week ban had cleared legal challenges. In a separate ruling, Florida's Supreme Court decided 4-3 that a proposed constitutional amendment protecting access to abortion in the state could be included on ballots this November, allowing Floridians to vote 'yes' or 'no' to sealing abortion rights.
In response on 1 May, US Vice President Kamala Harris lamented that "starting this morning, women in Florida became subject to an abortion ban so extreme it applies before many women even know they are pregnant." She claimed that the ban is a result of former President Donald Trump appointing three of the six US Supreme Court judges who had voted to overturn Roe v Wade, causing "extremists" in various states to pass laws that "criminalize doctors, punish women" just for "providing reproductive care."
On the same day, Florida House Minority Leader Fentrice Driskell said that women now have "fewer rights than their mothers and their grandmothers had."
Issues at large
First, an overview of the laws. In Arizona, the judgement prevented the 1864 abortion ban from coming into effect. The law, which had laid dormant in the state after the Roe v Wade ruling, ordered prosecution for "a person who provides, supplies or administers to a pregnant woman, or procures such woman to take any medicine, drugs or substance, or uses or employs any instrument or other means whatever, with intent thereby to procure the miscarriage of such woman unless it is necessary to save her life." It placed a blanket ban on all abortions except to save a woman's life and prevented individuals in Arizona from terminating a pregnancy after 15 weeks. In Florida, the abortion law bans anyone from getting an abortion after six weeks. It includes exceptions for cases of rape, incest, abnormalities, and when the mother's life is in danger. Patients must appear for two in-person appointments at least 24 hours apart. The biggest criticism of the law is that most women have no idea that they're even pregnant in the first six weeks.
Second, Roe v Wade and after. On 24 June 2022, the US Supreme Court overturned the 1973 Roe v Wade decision, which had established the constitutional right to abortion, allowing states to make their abortion laws. As per the research group Guttmacher Institute, abortions in 2023 were up from 53 per cent in 2020. The overturning of Roe v Wade resulted in Florida becoming "one of the main points of access for abortion care within the formal healthcare system in the south," as per a data scientist at the Guttmacher Institute. He added that 9,000 people seeking abortion in 2023 came from other states. Thus, the implications of the new law combined with the overturning of Roe v Wade will impact women from many other states. More than 20 states began enforcing abortion laws to different degrees following the overturn. However, while the majority still believes that the overturn was the right call, there are disagreements on what abortion laws should look like.
Third, the debate over abortion- conservatives and gender rights. The position that pro-life supports and pro-choice supports has largely remained unchanged over the years. While the former holds that foetuses should be protected, the latter argues that women should have the right to make their own decisions about their bodies. Both movements have many supports, meaning the reactions in both states were mixed. In Arizona, anti-abortion advocates blamed pro-abortion advocates, saying that the "most protective pro-life law in the country is poised to fall to the appetites of pro-abortion activists." In Florida, a pro-choice woman said that she is "terrified" due to the law, asserting that her "life matters." On 1 May, anti-abortion activists lined up behind a Jacksonville abortion clinic, making beelines for cars with potential patients. A pro-life individual described the six-week ban as a "landmark for the pro-life movement and for women."
Fourth, politics in the US. The abortion debate has always been a central theme in US politics and has already become a key aspect of the elections this year. Republicans are known to be more conservative and anti-abortion, while Democrats are more liberal and pro-abortion. Four of the seven justices in Arizona who favoured the 1864 ban were Republicans, while in Florida, most of the Supreme Court justices are appointed by DeSantis, meaning they share similar views. However, while the Republican's support for anti-abortion laws has prevailed, the decision of two Republicans in Arizona to support repealing the ban indicated a shift in the stance. Republican Kari Lake, who in 2022 described the ban as a "great law," said that the ruling to reinstate it is "out of step with Arizonans." This shifting stance has become so significant that conservative voters struggle to maintain party loyalty. Arizona's Democratic Party Chair, Yolanda Bejarano, affirmed, "Republicans know that they are on the wrong side of this issue."
In Perspective
First, the upcoming elections. Both Arizona and Florida are battleground states in the forthcoming elections, which is why the rhetoric surrounding abortions is more significant in these places. Democrats have used the initial decision in Arizona and the prevailing law in Florida to convince voters, especially women, that reproductive rights under Republicans will be extremely constrained. Given the extreme nature of the law in Florida, it is possible that even moderate voters would choose to vote for Democrats. US President Joe Biden has also blamed Trump for overturning Roe v Wade and the fallouts that the decision has had on abortion laws in other states during his campaign.
Second, more constrained access to healthcare for women. The overturning of Roe v Wade, which allowed states to enforce laws banning abortions, forced women from those states to travel to other areas where they had access to abortion. In the south of the US, as per the Guttmacher Institute, one in three abortions were performed in Florida. As per the CEO of Planned Parenthood of South, East and North Florida, Alexandra Mandado, Florida's new law means that the "entire South now, in a month, will be a desert for abortion care." Medical practitioners have expressed concerns over how this could result in women taking matters into their own hands, resulting in an uptick in injuries and miscarriages.
This Week in History
30 April 1971: Saigon falls to North Vietnam troops, leading to the reunification of Vietnam
Lakshmi Karlekar
On 20 April 1975, North Vietnam took control of Saigon, the then capital of South Vietnam. On 2 July 1976, Vietnam was formally reunited under communist rule as the Socialist Republic of Vietnam, following the conclusion of the Vietnam War and the fall of the South Vietnamese state.
On 29 April 1975, the People's Army of Vietnam (PAVN) and the Viet Cong, led by General Van Tien Dung, launched their final assault on Saigon, heavily bombarding the Army of the Republic of Vietnam (ARVN) soldiers under General Nguyen Van Toan. The PAVN and the Viet Cong had taken control of the city's key locations by the following day's afternoon, and they had flown their flag above the South Vietnamese presidential palace.
The immediate background to the fall of Saigon
During the Cold War, the United States was able to evacuate its soldiers from the Vietnam War owing to the Paris Peace Accords of January 1973. Low-intensity conflict continued while the agreement kept North Vietnamese forces in South Vietnam. The South Vietnamese were frivolous with their weapons spending and risked financial ruin because of the sharp increase in fuel prices. A lack of backing from the United States, obvious corruption, and high inflation all lowered army morale to the point where 24,000 soldiers deserted per month.
Resupplied and with the whiff of a potential win, the North Vietnamese were raring to go to battle. By invading Phuoc Long province, which is barely 65 kilometres from Saigon, they tested on December 1974 whether the US would start bombing again if they flagrantly broke the truce. President Gerald Ford of the U.S. requested further help for South Vietnam, but Congress rejected his requests, and the US did not respond. The quickness and simplicity of the operation demonstrated how South Vietnam's determination to resist was breaking down.
The North Vietnamese began their offensives across the Central Highlands and the northern South Vietnamese province of Quang Tri in March 1975. Large numbers of South Vietnamese soldiers deserted to save their families, making counterattacks unsuccessful. President Nguyen Van Thieu of South Vietnam gave the order for his army to evacuate southward on March 13 in anticipation of shorter supply lines. However, as soldiers and refugees choked roadways and created panic, the withdrawal quickly turned into a rout. The North Vietnamese, feeling empowered, decided to launch an all-out onslaught, to take over Saigon. There was an ultimatum to flee the oncoming North Vietnamese army. Some courageous South Vietnamese soldiers continued to fight; the 29th Division, for instance, staged a valiant final stand at Xuan Loc.
On 21 April, Thieu took on television to announce his resignation, criticizing the US for abandoning South Vietnam during its time of need. By April 27, 100,000 North Vietnamese soldiers had surrounded Saigon, but such force was barely necessary. By 29 April, North Vietnamese soldiers bombarded Tan Son Nhut Air Base, which served as the main point of escape for the 5,000 American citizens who were being evacuated from the country. Over 10,000 Vietnamese swarmed the American embassy, scrambling to secure a spot on the helicopters that took them from rooftops to a fleet of 26 American ships that were offshore, especially the USS Blue Ridge, the operational flagship and aircraft carrier stationed there. Before the city had been captured, nearly all-American military were evacuated and tens of thousands of South Vietnamese people who had been affiliated with the Republic of Vietnam regime departed from Saigon as part of Operation Frequent Wind. This operation is regarded as history's biggest helicopter evacuation.
On 30 April, little opposition was left when a hail of artillery indicated that the last assault had begun. The South Vietnamese government offered to surrender within hours of North Vietnamese troops taking control of key locations in the city, but their offer was rejected even as General Duong Van Minh, the country's president, who had taken office just two days after Thieu fled, gave the order for his soldiers to surrender.
After Saigon: Five Fallouts
More than just the conclusion of a war, the fall of Saigon represents a pivotal moment in world history. First, the triggering rivalries created tensions on either side. The 1973 Paris Peace Accords which propagated peace were unable to put an end to hostilities. In addition, as part of "Vietnamization," the United States reduced its aid and withdrew its combat forces, leaving South Vietnam vulnerable. The outcome was indirectly influenced by changes in international dynamics and support for the South Vietnamese administration brought about by the foreign geopolitical setting, particularly the détente between the United States and China and the strategy of rapprochement with the Soviet Union. In addition, the focus shifted from open combat and confrontation to arms limitation, and ultimately the fall of the Soviet Union, the vanguard of communism.
Second, the impact on the US. The "Vietnam Syndrome" seeped into American culture, increasing popular and political cynicism about participation in overseas conflicts.
Third, the refugees. Understanding the repercussions in political, economic, social, cultural, and global domains is crucial for comprehending the long-term effects on Vietnam and the world. Due to the 'boat people' problem, sizable Vietnamese groups settled across the globe, mostly in the US, Australia, and Canada, creating a lasting diaspora of refugees.
Fourth, the reeducation camps. The Communist Party of Vietnam sought to lower Saigon's population, which had grown due to wartime immigration and was now overcrowded and experiencing high unemployment. Between 200,000 and 300,000 South Vietnamese were transported to re-education camps after the war. There, many of them suffered from malnutrition, sickness, and torture in addition to being made to perform hard labor.
Fifth, the long road to recovery. Unexploded bombs, landmines, and the emotional and psychological repercussions of "War Syndrome," a type of post-traumatic stress disorder, are some of the physical and psychological remnants of Vietnam's past.
The fall of Saigon signifies not just the conclusion of the Vietnam War but also a dramatic change in the Cold War's balance of power dynamics, which will influence the trajectory of future international relations.
Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Rohini Reenum, Akhil Ajith, Femy Francis, Padmashree Anandhan, Dhriti Mukherjee, Shamini Velayutham, Vetriselvi Baskaran and Shilpa Joseph.
East and Southeast Asia
China: Hosts rival Palestinian groups - Hamas and Fatah
On 1 May, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that representatives of Rival Palestinian groups Fatah and Hamas met in China to negotiate potential reconciliation. Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Li Jian said: "The two sides fully expressed their political will to achieve reconciliation through dialogue and consultation, discussed many specific issues and made positive progress," and that "China and Palestine share a traditional friendship. We support Palestinian factions in achieving reconciliation and increasing solidarity through dialogue and consultation. We will continue to work actively towards that end."
China: Georgia's Governor approves bills banning Chinese "agent" from acquiring land
On 30 May, US state's Georgia Governor Brian Kemp approved and signed a bill limiting the ability of Chinese citizens to buy land in the state. The bill SB420 bans any Chinese agent from acquiring farmland in Georgia or any land near the military base or installations. The Democrats and others criticized the legislature as discriminatory. Kemp stated: "We cannot allow foreign adversaries to control something as critical to our survival as our food supply." The critics expressed that this would harm the immigrant community; Cynthis Chois, co-founder of Stop AAPI Hate, said: "By signing this bill, Governor Kemp is shirking his responsibility to protect the equality, civil rights and constitutional right to due process of all Georgians and is instead engaging in anti-Asian scapegoating and anti-immigrant fearmongering."
Taiwan: Semiconductor firm KYEC to divest from China over geopolitical tensions
On 29 April, the South China Morning Post reported that King Yuan Electronics Co (KYEC) had divested from the Suzhou subsidiary in China. The board of directors of the firm decided to divest from the Jiangsu province of China amid brewing geopolitical tensions and changes in the cross-strait supply chain. KYEC Microelectronics Co. gave away its 92.16 per cent shares in the Suzhous King Long Technology firm for 4.9 billion Yuan. KYEC informed that the deal would be completed by the third quarter of 2024, and the funds raised would be used to invest in high-tech testing and other equipment. The company's decision reflects how the US tech restriction has affected the supply chain, and now, it is looking to invest in other markets. This comes after the Biden administration updated the restrictions on semiconductor-related exports to China.
South Korea: Held talks to join the AUKUS security pact, says Defence Minister Shin
On 1 May, the South Korean Defense Minister Shin Won-sik said that the country held talks to join the AUKUS-led security pact. South Korea intends to join pillar two of the security pact, which aims to share other military technology. The AUKUS was formed in 2021 by the US, UK, and Australia as a two-stage security pact to counter China's power in the Indo-Pacific region. During a meeting, Shin said South Korea could contribute to the group with its defence, science, and technological capabilities. The talks were followed by an AUKUS announcement on Japan's participation in Pillar 2 of the group for specific defence projects.
Australia: Qantas Airlines data breach under investigation
On 1 May, Australian Qantas Airways informed us that they were investigating a data breach where users accessed other passengers' travel details, which had impacted the frequent Flyers application. There are multiple reports to the media outlets that customers can access strangers' travel information and that users can cancel someone else's tickets. Qantas is investigating the matter and checking to see if the recent system change caused this.
South Asia
Pakistan: President directs Sindh CM to launch special operations to curb crimes
On 1 May, the President presided over a special meeting at the Chief Minister's house to take measures to control crimes in Sindh. After hearing the briefings given by CM Shah and senior ministers, he urged the CM to manage street crimes in Karachi by launching a particular operation and completing "the Karachi Safe City project on a war footing." He insisted on deepening the ongoing operation against the dacoits and the menace of drugs in the province. He directed the Interior Minister to provide enhanced weapons to the Sindh Police force. The President stated: "The operation in Karachi must deliver results so that confidence of the citizens could be restored" and "I have zero tolerance for the illegal occupation of lands in Kacha areas and it must be stopped, once and for all."
Pakistan: Security forces kill militants in KP
On 29 April, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) said that during an intelligence-based operation in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), security forces killed four militants who had been involved in terrorist activities in the area. They then recovered "weapons and ammunition" from the terrorists. A day earlier, in a separate operation, security forces killed two terrorists in KP's Dera Ismail Khan District. Separately, on 25 April, three militants, including two ringleaders, were killed as part of an intelligence-based operation in the KP. The ISPR added that a "sanitization operation is being carried out to eliminate any other terrorist found in the area."
Pakistan: Four terrorists with alleged links to TTP arrested for Bisham suicide terror attack
On 29 April, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) revealed that it had arrested "four key terrorists" belonging to the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) who were involved in a terrorist attack that took place in Bisham last month. Referring to the arrests, the KP CTD spokesperson stated that all four - Adil Shehbaz, Muhammad Shafiq Qureshi, Zahid Qureshi and Nazeer Hussain belonged to the Mansehra district and had links to the TTP. Previously, on 26 March, the terrorists targeted a bus travelling between Islamabad and a hydroelectric dam construction site in Dasu at Bishamn in KP. In the suicide attack, five Chinese engineers and their Pakistani driver had been killed. China had demanded a probe into the incident, and Pakistan had promised to nab the "perpetrators and accomplices swiftly."
Pakistan: Farmers protesting wheat procurement policy arrested in Punjab
On 29 April, farmers from across the province of Punjab gathered at GPO Chowk to carry out their protest against the government's inadequate wheat procurement policy, which had reduced the "provincial procurement quota from over 4 million tonnes to 2.3 million tonnes." The protestors attempted to move towards the Punjab Assembly, where a heavy contingent of police presence intercepted them. Kissan Ittehad Pakistan General Secretary Mian Umair Masood, who was leading the demonstration, claimed that more than 250 farmers were arrested by the police in Lahore. However, according to police sources, only 46 protesters have been taken into custody. Mian Umair Masood also revealed further plans to "block highways across the province with the help of their families and livestock." The PTI and the Jammat-i-Islami have also supported the cause of the farmers. Their farmer wing, the Kisan Board, has scheduled several protests for 30 April.
Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa
Israel: Turkey and Colombia cut trade and diplomatic ties
On 3 May, due to the "worsening humanitarian tragedy" in the Palestinian Territories, Turkey suspended all trade with Israel. Ministry of Tradecin a statement said: "Turkey will strictly and decisively implement these new measures until the Israeli government allows an uninterrupted and sufficient flow of humanitarian aid to Gaza." Following the initial reports of the limitations, Israel Katz, the foreign minister of Israel, charged Turkish President Erdoğan with operating in a dictatorial manner. On 2 May, President Gustavo Petro of Colombia declared his intention to sever diplomatic ties with Israel because of the latter's Gaza war, which has drawn the alarm of human rights organizations and other experts who believe it may be equivalent to genocide.
Syria: Eight injures in Israeli airstrike
On 2 May, according to the Ministry of Defense of Syria, eight Syrian military soldiers were injured by an Israeli airstrike on the outskirts of Damascus. This incident is the most recent in the conflict in Gaza. Ministry, in a statement, said: "The Israeli strike, launched from the occupied Golan Heights towards one of the sites in the vicinity of Damascus."
Yemen: Houthi rebels target UK vessel in Red Sea
On 30 April, as part of their ongoing campaign to disrupt transportation along the vital maritime route, the Houthi rebels in Yemen damaged a ship on Monday with a missile attack. As per the British military's United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center, the strike occurred near Mokha, Yemen. The UKMTO reported that while the ship crew was unharmed and en route to their next port of call, the ship sustained damage in the attack. In the area, the agency asked vessels to proceed with caution. UKMTO stated: "There was "an explosion in close proximity to a merchant vessel."
Lebanon: Hezbollah targets Israeli sites
On 25 April, in response to the death of one of its members, Hezbollah claims to have conducted drone attacks on Israeli sites north of Acre, the largest incursion into Israeli territory since the start of the Gaza War. Although the Israeli military had earlier claimed to have intercepted two "aerial targets" off Israel's northern shore, it now claimed no knowledge of any of its installations being targeted by Hezbollah.
DR Congo: M23 rebels seize key mining town
On 1 May, the spokesperson said that the town of Rubaya in Masisi district, which is important for mining coltan, a key ingredient for producing mobile phones, was seized by the M23 rebel forces after heavy fighting with government troops. It happened on the same day that French President Immanuel Macron urged Rwanda to "halt its support."
Burkina Faso: Denies mass killing allegations of HRW reports
On 28 April, as per the BBC reports, Burkina Faso condemned the "baseless accusations" of Human Rights Watch (HRW) reports regarding the mass killing of 223 people in February. The Communications Minister Rimtalba Jean Emmanuel Ouedraogo stated: "The government of Burkina Faso strongly rejects and condemns such baseless accusations." He mentioned that the country had initiated a legal inquiry to "establish the facts" to prove the HRW "guilty." Earlier, on 25 April, the HRW investigation report said that the country's mass killings levels are at the top "among the worst army abuse" in a decade, citing the attack on 25 February in Nondin and Soro villages. The report also claimed that the military carried out this attack to retaliate when people supported jihadists.
Burkina Faso: Suspends BBC over HRW reports
On 26 April, the country blocked the BBC reports and the US public broadcaster Voice of America following its coverage of mass killings. The report accused the Burkinabe military of carrying out at least 223 civilian massacres in February. The country's media regulator warned other media outlets not to cover the news and suspended BBC publications. However, the Voice of America's Human Rights Watch denies taking back its stance. It stated: "We stand by reporting about Burkina Faso and intend to continue to fully and fairly cover activities in the country." UN Human Rights Office spokesperson Marta Hurtado issues a statement showing concern over the suspension. It reads: "Restrictions on media freedom and civic space must stop immediately. Freedom of expression including the right of access to information is crucial in any society, and even more so in the context of the transition in Burkina Faso."
Ethiopia: AU expresses concern over community disputes
On 26 April, the African Union (AU) showed concern about the worsening situation of "escalating tensions between local communities" in North Ethiopia. The country has been in turmoil since the war broke out between the Tigrayan administration and the federal government in 2020. The Tigrayans seized the adjacent areas like Alamata Town, Raya Alamata, Zata, and Ofla, which the Amharas also claim resulted in disputes that led more than 50,000 to flee their hometown. The AU Chairman Moussa Faki Mahamat urged both sides to immediately "halt hostilities and ensure the safety of civilians to end the renewed displacement of the local population." He suggested a political dialogue to resolve the issue.
Egypt: "Let it rot" campaign impacts fish traders
On 26 April, following President Abdul Fattah al-Sisi's words to boycott unaffordable products, fish traders are inclined to reduce the selling price to 50 per cent. The boycott came to light with the online protest weeks ago. The campaign "Let it rot," which was initiated in the major cities of Port Said and Alexandria, now has its spillover effect all over. This is due to the fall of Egyptian currency value.
Mali: Troops kill IS Commander
On 29 April, BBC reported that an IS Commander, Abu Huzeifa, was killed by a troop from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Mali state TV reported that Huzeifa, known as "Higgo", was a Morrocan national and Commander of IS in the Sahel. He was killed in an operation carried out in the Indelimane in the Menaka region. He was linked to several high-profile raids in the Sahel region, including a 2017 attack where four US soldiers were killed.
Europe and the Americas
Ukraine: Military claims attack on two oil refineries in southern Russia
On 27 April, Ukraine's defence claimed it carried out a drone strike on Russia's southern region, Krasnodar. According to the reports in Reuters and AFP, the attack hit two oil refineries along with a military airfield. In a statement: "Ukrainian drones struck the atmospheric distillation columns of the Illsky and Slovyansky refineries. These are key technological facilities." The same was confirmed by Russia's media, the TASS on fire at the Slavyansk plant and a partial suspension. On 27 April, Russia's local governor, Veniamin Kondratyev, claimed to be countering Ukraine's wave of drone strikes on its oil refineries in Krasnodar, southern Russia. In Slavyansk, Kushevsk, and Seversky districts, he stated that Russian air defence had intercepted more than ten drones. This resulted in a fire which was extinguished. He said: "There have been nine attacks in total on the tank farm and distillation column. Thanks to the built-in protection system, the tank farm hasn't been damaged."
Belarus: President signs new conscription decree to maintain the mobilization reserve
On 29 April, Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko signed a decree approving the new conscription of Reserve officers for Military Service. The decree allows for the incorporation of recruits into armed forces and border service bodies of males under 27 who are trained at military departments. The move comes as part of the annual process to increase the level of primary officer staffing in the armed and border services to "maintain the mobilization reserve."
Poland: Farmers suspend protest in the Ukraine border after talks with Agricultural Minister
On 29 April, Polish farmers who had protested for months at the Ukraine border crossing suspended the move. The reason behind the protest was due to the impact of cheaper Ukraine grain, the impact of unfair competition combined with the government's inaction. They withdrew the protests after talks with the Agriculture Minister of Poland, Czeslaw Siekierski. Although the details of the negotiation were not disclosed, the result of the suspension of protests by the farmers was hailed.
Georgia: Foreign Influence Bill provokes widespread protests
On 28 April, close to 20,000 people gathered at Tbilisi's central Republic Square, protesting against the controversial "Foreign Influence" bill. The earlier-backed Georgian state, now a member of the EU since 2023, has adopted the Foreign Influence Bill, which is aimed at destroying the media and civil society. This month, the ruling Georgian Dream party reintroduced the bill, facing strong criticisms for a perceived democratic backsliding. According to European Council President Charles Michel, the bill is observed to be "inconsistent" with Georgia's application for EU membership. He claimed it: "…will bring Georgia closer to the EU, not further away." President of Georgia, Salome Zurabishvili, threatened to veto the bill and is at odds with the ruling party. However, Georgia has a strong majority in the legislature, which enables it to enact legislation and override a veto from the president without the backing of any opposition lawmakers.
Haiti: Transnational council announces new prime minister
On 30 April, Haiti's transnational council named Fritz Belizaire as the new prime minister of the country, tasking him with stabilizing the country as it continues to face violence caused by armed gangs. The appointment follows weeks of political deadlock and internal squabbling, ultimately resulting in four voting members supporting Belizaire's appointment. Edgard Leblanc Fils, a former senate president, was named as the president of the panel, and the appointment of a cabinet and electoral council is yet to be done. Tensions around Tuesday's selection may lead to the dissolution of the council.
Brazil: Extreme weather leads to dam collapsing
On 3 May, BBC reported that following days of heavy rains that triggered massive flooding, a hydroelectric dam collapsed in Rio Grande do Sul state, leading to more than 30 people being killed and another 60 reported to be missing. Around 15,000 people were forced to leave their homes, and more than 500,000 could not access power or clean water. Hotter than average temperatures, high humidity, and strong winds caused the extreme weather conditions. State Governor Eduardo Leite asked for substantial assistance to "rescue hundreds of people in dozens of municipalities." Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva visited the affected area and promised help from the central government. Helicopters have been deployed to search for stranded people, but severe flooding has made it difficult for them to land.
Chile: President declares national mourning after assailants kill three police officers
On 27 April, armed assailants ambushed and killed three police officers before setting their car on fire in the Canete municipality in the Arauco province. Chile's President Gabriel Boric condemned the "cowardly" attack and declared three days of national mourning to honour the officers. He stated: "Today the entire country is in mourning. There is heartbreak, sorrow, anger. But these emotions do not paralyze us, they force us, they mobilize us. We will find the whereabouts of the perpetrators of this terrible crime." He also visited the families of the deceased and affirmed that there would "be no impunity." As per authorities, the officers were responding to three false emergency calls when their vehicle was attacked with heavy-calibre weapons. While the identity of the assailants remains unknown, a conflict between the Mapuche Indigenous community and landowners and forestry companies in the area has been intensifying for a while.
Canada: Police arrest and charge three individuals over killing of Sikh activist
On 3 May, three Indian nationals were arrested and charged over the killing of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar, who was shot dead in June 2023 in Vancouver, Canada. His death had sparked a major diplomatic row between India and Canada after Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged India's government was involved in the killing, a claim which India denied. Superintended Mandeep Mooker said the three suspects- Karan Brar, Kamal Preet Singh, and Karan Preet Singh- were charged with first-degree murder and conspiracy to commit murder. Investigations into their involvement and the "connections to the government of India" were ongoing. Assistant Commissioner David Teboul stated: "There are separate and distinct investigations ongoing into these matters. Certainly not limited to the involvement of the people arrested today." However, the collaboration with counterparts in India has reportedly been "rather difficult and challenging."
Newsmakers This Week
The abortion ban in the US, Protests in Georgia, Sorbonne University pro-Palestine protests and the likely ICC warrant against Netanyahu
Sayeka Ghosh, Vetriselvi Baskaran, Diya Madhavan and Sim Jain
Florida in the US: The abortion ban goes into effect
On 1 May, Florida's ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy went into effect, sharply restricting access to the procedure for women in the state
The six-week ban, lowered from the previous 15-week limit, is expected to have a far-reaching impact across the region, where 11 other states have already largely banned abortion following the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v. Wade in 2022. Florida had been a refuge for abortion-seekers from neighbouring states like Alabama and Georgia, but the new law upends that access.
The ban's impact on Florida's political landscape remains uncertain, with national Democrats expressing optimism that the issue could put the state in play despite historically favouring Republicans. President Biden briefly addressed the ban last week, calling it "a nightmare" caused by Donald Trump's Supreme Court appointments. Traditionally a more libertarian-leaning state, Florida has a history of approving liberal ballot measures even while electing Republicans. But DeSantis has stocked his administration with "solid social conservatives," as one anti-abortion advocate noted, suggesting the new restrictions align with his conservative agenda. As the legal battles continue, patients across the South will be forced to travel long distances or face a complete lack of access, upending reproductive rights in a region already grappling with the fallout from Roe's reversal.
Protests in Georgia: Against "foreign agents" legislation
Georgia witnessed protests as the governing party, the Georgian Dream Party (GDP), initiated the debate on a bill on "foreign agents" named – "Law on Transparency of Foreign Influence." The bill was widely criticized as being inspired by Russia. More than 5,000 demonstrators gathered in front of the Parliament in the capital, Tbilisi. On 18 April, in a vote, the opposition boycotted the bill, and 83 ruling politicians backed the bill's first reading in a 150-seat parliament. On 29 April, more than 20,000 gathered to join the "March for Europe," demanding the government to scrap the bill and fear the bill would restrict Georgia from joining the European Union. On 1 May, amidst three weeks of protest, the Parliament advanced the bill by approving the second reading. Lawmakers have abandoned the bill, and the MPs tussled by throwing punches. The third and final reading of the bill is anticipated to take place around mid-May.
In 2023, the bill was initially introduced. However, the strong public reaction resulted in its revocation. The bill mandates that they register under "foreign influence" if media outlets or civil society organizations get more than 20 per cent of their financing outside the country. The Georgian Dream Party calls the draft law the "Transparency of Foreign Influence" bill, and the opposition condemns the bill, saying that it resembles a Russian voice and will weaken civil society and threaten freedom of speech.
Western countries and the European Union have expressed animosity over the draft law. Georgia has always attempted to strengthen its ties with the West. Still, there are accusations that the current ruling party is trying to reestablish ties between the former Soviet republic and Russia. It wrecked relations with the EU, which granted Georgia candidate status in December, by passing the bill.
Sorbonne University in Paris: Pro-Palestine protests
On 29 April, police moved in to sweep off dozens of protesters who were pitching tents and protesting in a courtyard at the Sorbonne University in Paris on Monday, demanding an end to Israel's bombardment of Gaza. The demonstration occurred three days after a protest at the capital's elite Sciences Po university, which came in the wake of rallies on campuses propagating across the US against the conflict.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who, like President Emmanuel Macron, is among the prestigious university's notable alumni, stated that his government "would not tolerate the actions of dangerously acting minority trying to impose its rules and ideologies coming from North America" and called for a "rapid reaction", following the three-day blockade at the institute, inspired by Gaza solidarity encampments and on the following Monday, protesters at the Sorbonne University started setting up tents, and reiterating chants and waving the Palestinian flag proclaiming their solidarity. On Wednesday, protesters from Sciences Po occupied part of the campus after 100 students voted to pitch tents on the university compound. Hours after the demonstration commenced, Jean Basseres, the school's interim president, called for riot police officers, a crucial move since police seldom set into the universities in France. According to the statements from students and faculty, the president's decision was considered to have crossed a red line despite no arrest warrants being issued.
International Criminal Court (ICC): Likely warrant against Benjamin Netanyahu
The ICC may issue an arrest warrant against senior Israeli leaders and their Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, for alleged war crimes committed during Israel's ongoing war on Gaza. PM Netanyahu responded, "Under my leadership, Israel will never accept any attempt by the ICC to undermine its inherent right of self-defence." Israel does not accept the ICC's jurisdiction, but any warrant could put Israeli officials at risk in other countries. Therefore, Israeli senior officials appear to be concerned about the warrant, as 124 countries recognize the ICC, so they would have to arrest Netanyahu if he visits their country.
The ICC, headquartered in the Hague, Netherlands, is the permanent international criminal tribunal that investigates, prosecutes, and issues arrest warrants against individuals accused of committing the most serious crimes of concern, including genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and aggression. Recently, in March 2023, the ICC issued an arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin for crimes related to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. According to the ICC's report, twenty-one persons have been detained in the Hague, ten have been convicted of crimes, and four have been acquitted.
About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Dhriti Mukherjee, Shamini Velayutham, Akhil Ajith and Vetriselvi are Research Assistants at NIAS. Shila Joseph is a Research Intern at NIAS. Sayeka Ghosh, Diya Madhavan and Sim V are undergraduate students at St Joseph's University. Lakshmi Karlekar is a PhD Scholar at CHRIST (Deemed to be University).
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Rishika Yadav | Research Assistant, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
Serbia: Mass shootings, protests and instability
Rishika Yadav and Nityashree RB | Research Assistant and Research Intern, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
Turkey’s Elections: Unravelling the Political Spectacle of 2023
Padmashree Anandhan | Research Associate National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore
Belgorod drone attacks: Who, What and Why?
NIAS Africa Team
In Focus | Japan in Africa
Devjyoti Saha
Japan in Africa: Renewed Efforts to Revitalise Relations
Indrani Talukdar
Russia's Position in the Arctic: New challenges
Lakshmi Parimala H
Bhutan's Gross National Happiness
Amit Gupta
The Trump Phenomenon: Why it Won’t Go
Rishika Yadav
Turkey’s Election: Issues, Actors and Outcomes
IPRI Team
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Stalemate
NIAS Africa Team
Droughts in East Africa: A climate disaster
NIAS Africa Team
Sudan: Intensifying political rivalry and expanding violence
NIAS Africa Team
Expanding Russia-South Africa relations
Padmashree Anandhan
Pentagon document leak: Russia-Ukraine Conflict From a Tactical Lens
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Tunisia: The question of undocumented migrants
Indrani Talukdar
Belarus’s endgame in Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Padmashree Anandhan
Russia: Drone attacks escalate the Ukraine war
Padmashree Anandhan
The UK: Conservative party put to test as worker strikes continue
Bhoomika Sesharaj
PR Explains: Pakistan’s power outage
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Pakistan’s Blue Helmets: A long-standing contribution
D Suba Chandran
Karachi: The race and new alignments for the Mayor
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Macron’s visit to Africa: Three Takeaways
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Nigeria elections: Ruling party wins; What is ahead?
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | M23 atrocities in DRC and upcoming Nigeria elections
NIAS Africa Team
Africa in 2023: Elections and conflicts
IPRI Team
The continuing crisis in Israel
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Chinese Foreign Minister's visit to Africa
IPRI Team
Protests in Spain, Sweden and Israel
Avishka Ashok
China: A complicated economic recovery
Padmashree Anandhan
Europe: An impending energy crisis and its economic fallouts
Ankit Singh
Defence: Towards a new cold war
Riya Itisha Ekka
Brazil: Managing Bolsonaro’s legacy
Apoorva Sudhakar
Africa: Despite the elections, democratic backslide will continue
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Pakistan in 2023: Between elections, economic turmoil and climate crisis
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Sri Lanka in 2023: A troubling economy and an unstable polity
Avishka Ashok
Chinese Foreign Minister's visit to Africa
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Bamako’s pardon of Ivorian soldiers
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | The relapse of ANC
Allen Joe Mathew, Sayani Rana, Joel Jacob
Newsmakers: From Putin to Rushdie
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Rest in Peace; Queen Elizabeth. Mikhail Gorbachev, Pelé...
Ankit Singh
Global economy in 2022: The year of cooling down
Bhoomika Sesharaj
Digital world: Elon Musk and the Twitter Chaos
Madhura Mahesh
The FTX Collapse: Depleting cryptocurrencies
Harini Madhusudan
The Space race: Scaling new technological feats
Avishka Ashok
G20: More challenges
Akriti Sharma
COP27: Hits and Misses
Padmashree Anandhan
The Ukraine War
Poulomi Mondal
French Exit from Mali: More questions than answers
Mohaimeen Khan
Yemen, Syria, and Sudan: Continuing humanitarian crises
Padmashree Anandhan
NATO and the Madrid Summit: Expanding defence frontiers
Padmashree Anandhan
Elections in France, Sweden, and Italy: The rise of the right
Janardhan G
North Korea: Missile Tests Galore
Avishka Ashok
The Taiwan Strait: Political and military assertions
Anu Maria Joseph
Ethiopia: Uncertainties despite ceasefire
Apoorva Sudhakar
Tunisia: The end of the Jasmine Revolution
Rashmi BR
Iraq: Deadlock and breakthrough
Kaviyadharshini A
Iran: Anti-government protests
Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare
Sri Lanka: Political and Economic Crises
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Myanmar: The coup and after
NIAS Africa Team
The US-Africa Leaders Summit
IPRI Team
Workers strike in the UK
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | End of Operation Barkhane
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | The ceasefire in Ethiopia
IPRI Team
Drone attacks in Russia
Vignesh Ram | Assistant Professor | Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Manipal
Malaysia’s recent Elections: More questions than answers
Vignesh Ram
Anwar Ibrahim: Malaysia's new Prime Minister
Harini Madhusudan, Rishma Banerjee, Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan, and Avishka Ashok
What next for Russia, Ukraine, Europe, South Asia & India, and China
Padmashree Anandhan and Rishma Banerjee
UNGA 77: Who said what from Europe?
Rashmi BR and Akriti Sharma
COP27: Ten key takeaways
Rashmi Ramesh
Ice Melt in Alps in Europe: Three impacts
Rishma Banerjee
Tracing Europe's droughts
Padmashree Anandhan
Major causes behind Europe’s continuing heatwaves
Emmanuel Selva Royan
100 days of the Ukraine war: US Responses in the war
Padmashree Anandhan
100 days of the Ukraine war: What next for Europe?
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
100 days of the Ukraine war: More loss than gain for Russia
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Challenges to peace in Eastern Congo
Avishka Ashok | Research Associate | National Institute of Advanced Studies
20th Party Congress of the Communist Party of China: Major takaways
Angelin Archana | Assistant Professor, Women’s Christian College, Chennai
China's response to the Ukraine crisis: Shaped by its relationship with Russia and EU under the US Shadow
Shreya Upadhyay | Assistant Professor, Christ (Deemed to be University), Bangalore
Transatlantic Ties in the Wake of Ukraine-Russia War
Uma Purushothaman | Assistant Professor, Central University of Kerala, Kerala
Ukraine and beyond: The US Strategies towards Russia
Debangana Chatterjee | Assistant Professor, JAIN (Deemed-to-be University), Bangalore
Lessons from Ukraine War: Effectiveness of Sanctions
Himani Pant | Research Fellow, ICWA, Delhi
Ukraine and beyond: What next for Russia and Europe?
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border Deal
Avishka Ashok
G20 Summit: Four takeaways from Bali
NIAS Africa Team
China-Africa relations: Looking back and looking ahead
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Chad's political crisis
Sourina Bej
Elections in Sweden
Padmashree Anandhan
Italy's far-right wins 2022 elections
Padmashree Anandhan
Putin’s address in the Valdai Discussion: Six takeaways
Devjyoti Saha
Solomon Islands’ China card: Three reasons why
NIAS Africa Team
Floods in West Africa: Nigeria and beyond
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Famine in Somalia
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Kenya Elections 2022
IPRI Team
Protests in Iran
IPRI Team
Clashes between Armenia-Azerbaijan
Padmashree Anandhan
Queen Elizabeth: End of an era
Padmashree Anandhan
Russia and Eastern Economic Forum 2022: A sturdy Far East
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | The reinvention of Al Shabab
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Lavrov's visit to Africa
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Macron's visit to Africa
GP Team
Floods and Emergency in Pakistan
IPRI Team
Six months of War in Ukraine
GP Team
Regional round-ups
Padmashree Anandhan
Who will be the next UK prime minister: Liss Truss v. Rishi Sunak
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Tunisia's political crisis
NIAS Africa Team
Tunisia’s political crisis: Five questions
NIAS Africa Team
Tribal conflict in Blue Nile: Causes and Implications
STIR Team
Geopolitics of Semiconductors
Padmashree Anandhan
France: Uber files leak, and Macron’s trouble
Emmanuel Selva Royan
Italy: Three factors about its current political instability
NIAS Africa Team
Sudan-Ethiopia border tensions and a profile of Blaise Compaoré
NIAS Africa Team
Africa’s continuing migration problem: Three issues
STIR Team
China in Space: Shenzhou-13 and Tiangong
NIAS Africa Team
Africa’s displacement crises: Three key drivers
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Into the Sixth Decade of African Unity
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Communal Tensions in Ethiopia
Padmashree Anandhan
What does Macron's victory mean for France and the EU
Rishma Banerjee
The rise of Marine Le Pen
Sourina Bej
Four challenges ahead for President Macron
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Mali ends defence ties with France
GP Team
New US assistance for Ukraine
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | UK-Rwanda asylum deal
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Africa, Russia, and the War in Ukraine
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Political Crisis in Tunisia
GP Team
Russia's gas ultimatum to Europe
IPRI Team
30 days of War in Ukraine
NIAS Africa Team
60 years of Algerian independence
IPRI Team
Sri Lanka’s worsening economic crisis
NIAS Africa Team
In Focus: Libya
IPRI Team
The end of Denmark’s Inuit experiment
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS | Europe and Africa: Will AU and EU be equal partners?
Anu Maria Joseph
Europe and Africa: Will AU and EU be equal partners?
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
Lecture report: Ukraine, Russia and Europe
Joeana Cera Matthews
Into History: Northern Ireland and Bloody Sunday, 50 years later
Nireekshan Bollimpalli
Africa’s slow COVID vaccination continues. Four reasons why
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS: Conflict over the Nile Dam
NIAS Africa Team
IN FOCUS: Instability in Burkina Faso
Padmashree Anandhan
Munich Security Report: Six takeaways
Joeana Cera Matthews
Europe and Africa: An elusive search for an equal partnership
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
Femicides in Europe: The case of France
Padmashree Anandhan
Post Brexit: Three challenges in Northern Ireland
Porkkodi Ganeshpandian and Angkuran Dey
The return of the Left
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
Lithuania and China: Vilnius has become Beijing’s Achilles heel. Four reasons why
Mohamad Aseel Ummer
Africa: The anti-France sentiments in Mali and beyond
Shalini Balaiah
The Middle East in 2021: Never-ending wars and conflicts
Angelin Archana
Russia in 2021: Expanding boundaries
Prakash Panneerselvam
East Asia in 2021: New era of hegemonic competition
Apoorva Sudhakar
Coup in Burkina Faso: Five things to know
Joeana Cera Matthews
In Europe, abortion rights are "a privilege." Four reasons why
Padmashree Anandhan
Mapping COVID-19 protests in Europe: Who and Why
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Pakistan, US and Russia: Putin Online, Biden Offline
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The unrest in Kazakhstan: Look beyond the trigger
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Deepening Pakistan-Russia ties
D. Suba Chandran
Justice Ayesha: Breaking the Legal Ceiling
Ankit Singh
Pakistan's Judiciary in 2021
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Same Page Story: Civil-Military Relations in 2021
D. Suba Chandran
Pakistan's Foreign Policy in 2021
Ankit Singh
Pakistan’s economy in 2021: Major highlights
Ankit Singh
Pakistan and the Asian Development Bank
Apoorva Sudhakar
The PDM is back, again
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Qureshi’s visit to Brussels: Three takeaways
GP Team
The Complete Compendium for 2021
GP Team
The Americas in 2021
GP Team
Europe in 2021
GP Team
Middle East and Africa in 2021
GP Team
South Asia in 2021
Apoorva Sudhakar
Protests in Gwadar: Four major highlights
Ankit Singh
Mini budget, IMF and a contemporary puzzle.
Ankit Singh
Pappu Sain bids adieu to the world
Apoorva Sudhakar
Smog, pollution and more: Deteriorating air quality in Pakistan
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
PTI’s secret dealing with the TTP and TLP
Vaishnavi Iyer
France, Algeria, and the politics over an apology
Joeana Cera Matthews
NATO-Russia relationship: Looking beyond the suspensions and expulsions
D. Suba Chandran
PTI’s TLP flip-flop and a secret deal
Apoorva Sudhakar
The increasing curbs on digital media freedom in Pakistan
Padmashree Anandhan
Facebook's Metaverse: Why it matters to Europe
Joeana Cera Matthews
Poland, EU and PolExit. It is complicated, for three reasons
Harini Madhusudhan
Europe's Energy Crisis and Gazprom
D. Suba Chandran
TLP: The government caves in again
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
TLP is back again
Apoorva Sudhakar | Project Associate, School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS
Pakistan’s transgender community: The long road ahead
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Since January 2021: Why the US President has not called Pakistan’s Prime Minister so far?
Apoorva Sudhakar
No honour in honour killing
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The Military Reshuffle: A strategic or routine decision?
D. Suba Chandran
Dr AQ Khan: Between a national hero and a nuclear proliferator
Apoorva Sudhakar
Rising child abuse in Pakistan: Five reasons why
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Hazara Persecution in Pakistan: No end in sight
D. Suba Chandran
Protests in Gwadar: Who and Why
Chetna Vinay Bhora
Europe's Energy Crisis: It could get worse. Five reasons why
STIR Team
Cover Story: War against Malaria
Aswathy Koonampilly
Japan: New Prime Minister, Old party
GP Team
Europe's Energy Crisis
STIR Team
The Science and Politics of Materials
Sourina Bej
France: Paris Terror Trial
Harini Madhusudan
Belarus: Weaponization of the Migrant Crisis
Juan Mary Joseph
Attacks on Chinese Investments in Pakistan: Who, Where And Why?
Joeana Cera Matthews
Haiti: Two months after the assassination, the storm is still brewing
Joeana Cera Matthews
From Crimea to Navalny: Putin's calibrated Europe strategy
Joeana Cera Matthews
Nord Stream-2: Why is the region unhappy about the pipeline?
Lokendra Sharma
Two months of Cuban protests: Is the ‘revolution’ ending?
GP Team
The New Afghanistan
STIR Team
Climate Change and Energy Options
Apoorva Sudhakar
Digital Pakistan: Idea, Potential and Challenges
Anu Maria Joseph
South Africa: What is behind the pro-Zuma protests?
Dincy Adlakha
China and Russia in Myanmar: The interests that bind
Sarthak Jain
Nord Stream 2 is Russia’s geopolitical victory
Jeshil J Samuel
REvil is dead. Long live REvil
STIR Team
Space Tourism
Keerthana Rajesh Nambiar
The EU Summit 2021: Five Takeaways
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Impending famine in Tigray, should make Ethiopia everyone's problem
Anu Maria Joseph
Too late and too little is Ethiopia's international problem
Sankalp Gurjar
Africa's Ethiopia Problem
Apoorva Sudhakar
Ethiopia's Tigray problem is Tigray's Ethiopia problem
Lokendra Sharma
The future of nuclear energy looks bleak
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Five reasons why Afghanistan is closer to a civil war
Mohamad Aseel Ummer
Migration in Africa: Origin, Drivers and Destinations
Dincy Adlakha
The new three-child policy is two decades too late
Dincy Adlakha
Loud Echoes of the National Security Law in China
Joeana Cera Matthews
Farfetched goals on pandemic recovery, climate action and economic revival
STIR Team
Rare Earths and the Global Resource Race
SDP Scholar
The Rise and Reign of Ransomware
Gurpreet Singh
India and the geopolitics of supply chains
Chetna Vinay Bhora
Spain, Morocco and the rise of rightwing politics in Europe over immigration
Vibha Venugopal
The return of Taliban will be bad news for women
Udbhav Krishna P
Revisiting the recent violence: Three takeaways
Joeana Cera Matthews
For the Economist, Taiwan is the most dangerous place. The argument is complicated
Apoorva Sudhakar
15 of the 23 global hunger hotspots are in Africa. Three reasons why
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The US decision to withdraw is a call made too early. Three reasons why
Lokendra Sharma
Learning from Cuba's vaccine development efforts
V S Ramamurthy and Dinesh K Srivastava
An energy mix of renewables and nuclear is the most viable option
Lokendra Sharma
Deadly second wave spirals into a humanitarian disaster
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The US-Taliban Deal: One Year Later
Akriti Sharma
The Quad Plus and the search beyond the four countries
Apoorva Sudhakar
India's Endgames, Roles and Limitations in Quad
Sukanya Bali
Tracing the Quad's evolution in the last two decades
Apoorva Sudhakar
Ethiopia: Five fallouts of the military offensive in Tigray
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Afghanistan: The recent surge in targeted killing vs the troops withdrawal
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
In Honduras, a move towards a permanent ban on abortion laws
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Civilian protests vs military: Three factors will decide the outcome in Myanmar
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Trump’s Climate Change legacy: Disruption and Denial
Apoorva Sudhakar
Trump’s Iran legacy: Maximum pressure, minimum results
N Manoharan and Drorima Chatterjee
Five ways India can detangle the fishermen issue with Sri Lanka
IPRI Team
Coup in Myanmar and Protests in Russia
D Suba Chandran
The PDM differences, Gwadar fencing, and Lakhvi's arrest
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Nagorno-Karabakh: Rekindled fighting, Causalities and a Ceasefire
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Thailand: For the pro-democracy protests, it is a long march ahead
Harini Madhusudan
Brexit: A year of the UK-EU transition talks and finally, a Deal
Apoorva Sudhakar
Ethiopia: The conflict in Tigray and the regional fallouts
Aparaajita Pandey
The Americas: Top Five Developments
Teiborlang T Kharsyntiew
Europe: Top five developments
Sandip Kumar Mishra
East Asia: Top Five developments in 2020
Harini Madhusudan
Outer Space in 2020: Missions, Privatization, and the Artemis Accords
Sukanya Bali
5G, Huawei and TikTok: Four trends in 2020
Sumedha Chatterjee
COVID-19: How the world fought in 2020
Harini Madhusudan
The Vaccine Rush: Expectations vs Realities
Harini Madhusudan
Open Skies Treaty: The US should not have withdrawn, for five reasons
Savithri Sellapperumage
Kamala Harris makes history
Mallika Devi
China is against the Quad. Five reasons why
Srikumar Pullat
Space of Tomorrow: The Need for Space Security
Tamanna Khosla
Japan: New Prime Minister, Old Challenges
Vaishali Handique
Not just regime change: Women and protest movements in Sudan
Sneha Tadkal
Technology in contemporary global protest movements
Chavindi Weerawansha
Students as agents of change: Protest movements in Zimbabwe
Anju Annie Mammen
“Unveiling”: Women and protest movements in the Middle East
Harini Madhusudan
‘The Revolution of Our Times’: Protests in Hong Kong
Samreen Wani
Lebanon: Can Macron's visit prevent the unravelling?
Harini Madhusudan
The Legacy of Shinzo Abe. It is Complicated.
Boa Wang
Two Sessions in Beijing
Boa Wang
How China fought the COVID-19
N. Manoharan
Is COVID-19 a Bio-weapon from China?
Prof PM Soundar Rajan
Is there an overlap of 5G Networks and COVID hotspots?
Rashmi Ramesh
Will COVID-19 provide a new agenda to the NAM?
Harini Madhusudan
Iran's New Military Satellite: Does it violate the UNSC 2231?
Jenice Jean Goveas
Epidemics through History
Sanduni Atapattu
Preventing hatred and suspicion would be a bigger struggle
Chavindi Weerawansha
A majority in the minority community suffers, for the action of a few
Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare
The Cardinal sermons for peace, with a message to forgive
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Who and Why of the Perpetrators
Natasha Fernando
In retrospect, where did we go wrong?
Ruwanthi Jayasekara
Build the power of Co-existence, Trust, Gender and Awareness
N Manoharan
New ethnic faultlines at macro and micro levels
Asanga Abeyagoonasekera
A year has gone, but the pain has not vanished
Jenice Jean Goveas
In India, the glass is half full for the women
Fatemah Ghafori
In Afghanistan, there is no going back for the women
Lakshmi V Menon
The decline in terrorism in Pakistan in 2019
Rashmi Ramesh
The EU and the Arctic: The interest is not mutual. Why?
Rashmi Ramesh
Iceland, Denmark and Norway: Small is Big in the Arctic
Harini Madhusudan
The Non-Arctic powers: Interests of Japan and South Korea
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Malaysia: New PM, Old Challenges
Lakshmi V Menon
Pakistan to remain “Grey”; North Korea and Iran in “Black”
Rashmi Ramesh
Trump's India Visit: Optics, Substance and Rhetoric
Kabi Adhikari
The controversial MCC Nepal Compact
Malini Sethuraman
ISIS post Baghdadi: Will there be another Caliphate in 2020?
Aarathi Srinivasan
Climate Change: The Economy of the Indian Ocean Region in 2020
Prathiksha Ravi
Israel and the Middle East: The New Alliance Plans in 2020
Padmini Anilkumar
Middle East: The Return of Russia in 2020
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Sudan and Algeria: Road to Democracy in 2020
Lakshmi V Menon
Syria: ISIS Decline, US Retreat and the Return of Russia in 2020
Harini Madhusudan
The US-China Trade Dispute: Towards further disruptions in 2020
Parikshith Pradeep
The US under Donald Trump: The Fall of an Empire in 2020
Vivek Mishra
After Soleimani assassination: Options for the US
Sukanya Bali
Iran, Iraq and the US: Who wants what?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Old problems to persist with no solutions in the near term
Aashiyana Adhikari
Indian and Chinese investments in Nepal: Managing asymmetry
Shailesh Nayak | Director, National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Blue Economy and India: An Introduction
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
North Africa in 2019: A year of protests, with some positive results
Sukanya Bali
Hong Kong in 2019: China's New Achilles Heel
Harini Madhusudan
The US-China Trade Dispute in 2019: Towards a thaw in 2020?
Parikshith Pradeep
The US in 2019: Trump rollsout a template for a global American retreat
Rashmi Ramesh
The Arctic Littorals: Iceland and Greenland
Harini Madhusudan
The Polar Silk Route: China's ambitious search in the Arctic
GP Team
Syria: Who wants what?
Harini Madhusudan
Violence in Hong Kong: Will the protests end?
Rashmi Ramesh
Is Catalonia Spain’s Hong Kong?
D. Suba Chandran
Why an Arctic foray is essential for India
Parikshith Pradeep
Russia's Polar Military Edge
Nidhi Dalal
Protests rock Chile, Bolivia and Haiti
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Will prosecuting Suu Kyi resolve the Rohingya problem?
Lakshman Chakravarthy N & Rashmi Ramesh
Climate Change: Four Actors, No Action
Sukanya Bali
Brexit: Preparing for the Worst Case
Lakshman Chakravarthy N
5G: A Primer
Rashmi Ramesh
From Okjökull to OK: Death of a Glacier in Iceland
Sukanya Bali
Challenges before Boris Johnson
Parikshith Pradeep
The Hong Kong Protests: Who wants what
Harini Madhusudan
The Hong Kong Protests: Re-defining mass mobilization
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
ASEAN Outlook on the Indo Pacific: Worth all the Hype?
Mahesh Bhatta
Monsoons first, Floods next and the Blame Games follow
Titsala Sangtam
Counting Citizens: Manipur charts its own NRC
Vivek Mishra
Can Hedging be India’s Strategy?
Lakshmi V Menon
Amidst the US-Iran standoff, Saudi Arabia should be cautious
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
For Russia, it was big power projection
Harini Madhusudan
For China, it was trade and a temporary truce
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
For Japan, it was commerce and climate change
Sourina Bej
For the US, it was trade, tariff and talks
Titsala Sangtam
Iran, US and the Nuclear deal: Europe in the middle?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Modi's Colombo Visit: Four issues to watch
Raakhavee Ramesh
Higher than the Himalayas: Pakistan and China
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Across the Himalayas: Nepal and China
Mahath Mangal
The Russian Resurgence: Is the US supremacy waning?
Mahath Mangal
San Francisco wants to ban, Kashgar wants to expand
Jerin George
Espionage or Investigative Journalism?
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The Huawei Controversy: Five things you need to know
Mahath Mangal
Why the world needs to look at Yemen
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
The Central Asia Connector
Harini Madhusudan
An Under-represented East Asia
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Africa Embraces the Belt and Road
Sourina Bej
It’s Europe vs EU on China
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Sudan: Between Democracy and another military rule
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Responses and Inspiring Lessons
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Thailand: Between Elections and Instability
Sourina Bej
Two Sessions in 2019: Four Takeaways
Lakshmi V Menon
The End of ISIS Caliphate?
Harini Madhusudan
For China, its a sigh of relief
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
For Vietnam, its a big deal
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
For Japan, No Deal is Good Deal
Sourina Bej
For South Korea, a costly disappointment
Harini Madhusudan
No deal is better, but isn't it bad?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
The Other Conflict in Rakhine State
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
Yemen: Will Sa'nna fall?
Harini Madhusudan
Sinicizing the Minorities
GP Team
US, South Korea and Thailand
Lakshmi V Menon
The Qatar Blockade: Eighteen Months Later
GP Team
Yemen, Venezuela and US-China
Sourina Bej
Maghreb: What makes al Shahab Resilient?
Harini Madhusudan
US-China Trade War: No Clear Winners
Abhishrut Singh
Trump’s Shutdown: Five Things to Know
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Myanmar: Will 2019 be better for the Rohingya?
D. Suba Chandran
Bangladesh: The Burden of Electoral History
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer
US and China: Between Confrontation and Competition
Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu
Nepal
Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
The Maldives
Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
India
Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
Bangladesh
Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS
Afghanistan
Harini Madhusudan
China and Japan: Renewing relations at the right time
Sourina Bej
The INF Treaty: US withdraws to balance China?
Harini Madhusudan
The Khashoggi Killing: Unanswered Questions
Lakshmi V Menon
US and Israel: Trump's Deal of the Century
Nasima Khatoon
The New Maldives: Advantage India?
Harini Madhusudhan
To NAFTA or Not: Trump, Mexico and Canada
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Malaysia’s China Moment: The Mahathir Gamble
Sourina Bej
BIMSTEC: A Bay of Good Hope?
Young Scholars Debate
India, Imran Khan and Indo-Pak Relations
Siddhatti Mehta
Does Brexit mean Brexit?
Oishee Majumdar
Factsheet: China’s Investments in Africa
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
The 8888 Uprising: Thirty Years Later
Harini Madhusudhan
The Tariff War: 'Stick of Hegemony' vs Vital Interests
Druta Bhatt
FactSheet: Shangri La Dialogue 2018
Rahul Arockiaraj
Immigrants as the “Other”: The Social and Economic Factors in the US
Divyabharathi E
Is Trump-Putin Summit a setback for the US?
Apoorva Sudhakar
India and Bangladesh: The Long Haul
Divyabharathi E
Quad as an alternative to the BRI: Three Main Challenges
Oishee Majumdar
FactSheet: India-Bangladesh Relations
D. Suba Chandran
Trump meets Putin; will it cost NATO?
Sourina Bej
Trump and the NATO: One Block, Different Views
Gayan Gowramma KC
Now, the United States withdraws from the UNHRC
Siddhatti Mehta
Will China be able to sustain its Dominance?
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
Myanmar: Why won't they do anything for the Rohingya?
Harini Madhusudan
The Idea of an US Space Force: Strategic Calculations
Apoorva Sudhakar
Afghan Peace: Reality or Illusion?
Hely Desai
Looking beyond Trump: Is the US declining?
Manushi Kapadia
Is China using its soft power to become superpower?
Lakshmi. V. Menon
Middle East: Has Russia chosen Israel over Iran?
Miti Shah
G7: Why Trump wants Russia in?
Hely Desai
FactSheet: G7 Summit
Siddhatti Mehta
The Panmunjom Declaration: “Tip of the Iceberg”
Druta Bhatt
Iran N-Deal and the Trans-Atlantic Divide
Manushi Kapadia
US and China: Towards a Trade War
Miti Shah
Palestine: US triggers new tensions
Divyabharathi E
The "Indo-Pacific Command": What's in the name?
Harini Madhusudan
Trump’s Tariff Strategy: Targetting Adversaries and Allies
Hely Desai
Trump-Kim Summit: Three Likely Outcomes
Apoorva Sudhakar
The Lebanon Pawn: Will it change after elections?
Lakshmi V Menon
Israel, the Game Changer?
Samreen Wani
Deciphering Turkey's External Push
Divyabharathi E
China and Russia: The New Alignments
Ann Maria Shibu
Can India afford to lose Maldives to China?
Dhruv Ashok
Why Maldives is important to China?
Lakshmi V Menon
ISIS and the Yazidi victims: Why the World should stand up?
Harini Madhusudan
US- China Tariff Face-off : Five questions
Jamyang Dolma
Why is Free Tibet important for India
Divyabharathi E
Arctic: The Strategic Significance
Lakshmi V Menon
Do we need the Quad?
Samreen Wani
Why Trump’s Iran exit is a big mistake?
Jamyang Dolma
Inter Korean Summit: Will it work?
Dhruv Ashok
The Fishermen Issue between India and Sri Lanka
Apoorva Sudhakar
Bangladesh's Economy: Decoding a Success Story
Ann Maria Shibu
Why India should not pull out of the Indus water treaty?
Divyabharathi E