Conflict Weekly

Photo Source: BBC
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

CWA # 1315, 17 May 2024
Conflict Weekly
Conflict in Gaza, Elections in Catalonia and Protests in Georgia

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #228, 17 May 2024, Vol.5, No.20
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Shamini Velayutham, Neha Tresa George and Indrani Talukdar

Gaza: Impending operation in Rafah, Regrouping of Hamas and the Genocide Case in ICJ
Shamini Velayutham

In the news
On 16 May, after arguing for more emergency measures in response to Israel’s attack on Rafah, South Africa ended its arguments before the International Court of Justice (ICJ). According to South Africa, Israel's military operations in Rafah constitute a “genocidal” campaign that jeopardizes the “very survival of Palestinians.” To take further emergency action in response to the Gaza War, on 10 May, South Africa requested that the ICJ order Israel to evacuate from Rafah. South African Ambassador Vusi Madonsela warned of the dangers of former colonial powers denying genocide as Israel continues its onslaught in Gaza. He stated: “Israel is acting with complete impunity in Gaza, escalating a final wave of destruction from which there is no return.”

On the same day, the Republican-led US House of Representatives passed a bill that would compel President Joe Biden to transfer weapons to Israel. By a largely party-line vote of 224 to 187, the Israel Security Assistance Support Act was passed. Three Republicans voted against the proposal, while 16 Democrats and the majority of Republicans supported it. The goal of the bill is to condemn the Democrats for postponing bomb shipments while pressuring Israel to take extra precautions to safeguard civilians in its conflict with Hamas.

On 15 May, according to the congressional aides, Biden’s administration told prominent lawmakers that it would be sending a ‘new package’ worth USD 1 billion in ‘arms and ammunition’ to Israel. It is said to be the first arms shipment consisting of ‘3500 high-payload bombs’ to Israel after its announcement on halting the arms supply in response to Israel’s attack on Rafah. The staff stated: “The package being sent includes about USD 700 million for tank ammunition, USD 500 million in tactical vehicles and USD 60 million in mortar rounds.”

On the same day, in a statement, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that soldiers had started “an operation against terrorist operatives and infrastructure in the center of Jabalia camp.” On 11 May, the Israeli military issued an order to evacuate the Jabalia neighborhood in northern Gaza. It informed the local population that it would be resuming operations thereafter observing Hamas attempting to retake the region. On 17 December 2023, Over 100 people were injured and 90 people were killed as a result of the Israeli attacks on the Jabalia refugee camp in northern Gaza. Similarly, on 4 November 2023, the Israeli airstrikes killed 195 civilians in the camp.

On 13 May, the Israeli forces intensified their attack on Rafah, forcing residents to flee from the region. Tens of thousands of residents were forced to leave Rafah on 11 May as Israel planned an expansion of its military campaign. Israeli forces have now left the eastern part of Rafah following the prior orders, moving into the outer edges of the highly populated crucial region.

Issues at large
First, the latest development in Rafah. Regarded to be the last stronghold of Hamas, Rafah also hosts close to a million from the rest of Gaza who have taken refuge. Approximately 300,000 of them in Rafah have recently left following Israel’s evacuation orders. Israel has been wanting its troops to enter into a Rafah to destroy Hamas and release several hostages. On 6 May, a day after Hamas accepted a ceasefire agreement mediated by Egypt and Qatar, Israel’s 401st Brigade crossed the Rafah border. Israel asserted that the agreement did not meet its fundamental requirements. Israeli forces have taken over the Rafah international crossing into Gaza, blocking an essential path for humanitarian supplies and possibly creating a haven for residents fleeing a bombardment of buildings.

Second, the case in ICJ. On 11 January, South Africa presented its genocide case against Israel at the ICJ. During the hearing, South Africa concentrated on Israel's disregard for Gaza's needs in terms of food, water, medicine, fuel, shelter, and other humanitarian aid during Gaza's conflict with Hamas, a militant Palestinian organization. Additionally, it referred to Israel’s ongoing bombing assault, which, according to Gaza's health authorities, has claimed over 35,000 lives. In March, the court ruled that Israel must take all necessary and appropriate steps to guarantee that Palestinians in Gaza have access to basic food supplies, and it also issued further emergency measures. Recently, as Israeli forces move into Rafah and other regions, South Africa has reiterated its genocidal claims against Israel.

Third, the shifting US position on arms supply to Israel. On 9 May, for the first time, President Joe Biden declared that if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered a large-scale assault on Rafah, he would halt some US ammunition supplies to Israel, which he recognized had been used to kill civilians in Gaza. However, recently Biden's administration told the lawmakers that it would provide Israel with more than USD 1 billion worth of weapons and ammunition. Though one shipment of 2,000-pound and 500-pound bombs was delayed, and the Biden administration reviewed additional weapons shipments, Israel, a significant recipient of US military support for decades is still scheduled to receive billions of dollars' worth of armaments.

Fourth, the regrouping of Hamas. According to IDF Hamas is regrouping in parts of central and northern Gaza that Israel says it “cleared” several months ago. According to Israel, four Hamas battalions and hostages taken after the 7 October 2023 attack are currently in Rafah. Israeli soldiers attacked Rafah without making any progress, according to Palestinian residents and militants, while their tanks advanced into the center of Jabalia in northern Gaza, where they encountered ‘mortar bombs and anti-tank rockets’ from militants who have regrouped there.

In perspective
First, Israel’s intense attack Although Hamas claimed to have killed multiple soldiers, nevertheless, Israel's military claimed to have killed “a large number of terrorists” in Jabalia's refugee camp. Additionally, there is still intense fighting in and around Rafah. According to Israel, it killed 13,000 Hamas militants. However, given the current situation, Israel believes that Hamas militants have resurfaced in Rafah and northern Gaza.
As Israel's handling of the conflict is escalating dramatically on a global scale, Netanyahu’s administration is determined to eliminate Hamas from the region.

Catalonia and the Spain Elections: Decline of pro-independence voices
Neha Tresa George

In the news
On 12 May, Catalonia in Spain witnessed the Socialist Party of Catalonia (PSC) led by Salvador Illa emerge victorious with 42 seats, with the pro-independence parties taking a backseat for the first time in a decade in the regional elections.
Spain's Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez congratulated Illa for the "historic result." In a post on X, Sanchez said it would mark the beginning of "a new era in Catalonia."

Issues at large
First, a brief note on Catalonia. Within Spain, the region has its language and distinctive traditions and a population of almost 7.5 million. It is also the richest and one of the most vital parts of Spain. Catalan separatism emerged in the 1850s with Renaixenca (rebirth), a movement to revive Catalan as a living language with its press and theatre. Even though the region attained a slight autonomy by 1913, Miguel Primo de Rivera who was the dictator of Spain repealed it in 1925. His policy led to the formation of a left-wing coalition party, the Esquerra Republicana, which attained victory in the municipal elections of 1931. The formation of the pro-autonomy Convergence and Union party in 1978 served as a political force for Catalonia. With the attainment of full autonomy in 1979, the region was granted “nation” status in 2006. The autonomy statute was struck down in 2010 when Spain’s constitutional government ruled that Catalans constituted a “nationality” but not, a “nation.”

Second, the emergence of the Catalan independence movement and separatism. Catalans who were already frustrated at the eurozone debt crisis were motivated by Scotland’s referendum on independence from the United Kingdom in 2014. Following a symbolic referendum led by the Convergence and Union leader Artur Mas, which Spain immediately challenged, the separatists won the regional elections in 2015. Tensions reached its peak in 2017 when the government led by Carles Puigdemont moved ahead with an illegal independence referendum which declared independence for the Catalan Republic.

Third, shift in people’s demand. Although Madrid had dissolved the parliament and called for a snap election after the referendum in 2017, separatists won by a slim majority, and the newly elected President vowed to continue fighting for independence. Puigdemont, the then President, had fled the region in fear of the charges against him with several others as they were alleged for their seditious policies. The widespread protests and police response led to one of the worst street violence in Spain. Nevertheless, the government, before the elections of 2024 led by Pere Aragonès, made the people shift their demands to improvements in social services rather than independence due to the drought-prone conditions and the increasing cost of living during his time.

Fourth, the rise of Pedro Sanchez. The Prime Minister of Spain who came to power leading a vote of no confidence against Mariano Rajoy in 2018 has a conciliatory approach towards Catalonia as he had received the backing of the pro-independence party Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya to secure his position. Sanchez was observed to be acceding to the demands of Junts pel Sí, the political party led by Puigdemont by brokering an amnesty deal that would deprive them of their charges under the scope for “peaceful coexistence” in Catalonia. Whereas Puigdemont who had fled the region in fear of the charges against him,  intends to return Spain once the amnesty proposal becomes law. Despite several protests regarding the proposal in the country, Sanchez stood firm as the Junts have agreed to back his position in favour of it. Although the bill got approved in the lower house of Parliament, the upper house stalled it delaying its implementation. The election results indicated that Sanchez’s high-risk amnesty proposal has served its purpose by reducing the separatist tensions while at the same time helping to normalize Spanish-Catalan relations. The bill also plays a major role in diminishing the demand for independence among the people.

In perspective
First, the election results indicate a major gain for the Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sanchez; the party still needs 68 out of the 135 seats to form a government. To secure its position, the Socialist Party might have to seek support from the pro-independence parties of Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (Catalan Republican Left) and the Left Wing Comuns. If a consensus is not reached, Catalans will again be summoned to vote in October.

Second, the state of the Catalan independence movement. The election results might indicate that Catalonia had gone cold on independence. With the amnesty bill’s proposal, Sanchez has managed to neutralize the separatist tendencies along with an improvement in Spanish-Catalan relations. Moreover, the realisation of severing ties with the EU also played a huge role in the results. According to experts, independence is no longer “a top priority for many voters”. The reason for this shift might be the discontent with the pro-independence parties and their governments.

Georgia: Parliament approval of foreign influence bill triggers mass protests
Indrani Talukdar
 
In the news
On 14 May, the Georgian Parliament passed the ‘foreign influence’ with 84 votes in favour and thirty against. The bill has been debated since 17 April and was reintroduced on 09 May.
 
On 14 May, US Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, James O’Brien said that if the controversial bill was not changed and remained in its current form, there would be a corresponding reaction from the US such as restrictions affecting the financial side and the travel of specific people and families who have been responsible for the undemocratic actions. On 03 May, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze in conservation with European Council President Charles Michel expressed that there were no counterarguments against the proposed legislation. He argued that it would increase the transparency over the foreign funding of NGOs.
 
Earlier, on 28 April, close to 20,000 people gathered at Tbilisi's central Republic Square protesting against the controversial “Foreign Influence” bill. The ruling Georgian Dream party reintroduced the bill this month facing strong criticisms for a perceived democratic backsliding. The bill is observed to be "not consistent" with Georgia's application for EU membership. On 17 April, a large number of protestors gathered in Tbilisi after the lawmakers passed a bill considered controversial imposing control on media and non-commercial organisations. The bill mandates such organisations that receive more than 20 per cent of funding from foreign entities to register and therefore categorised as “foreign agents.”
 
Issues at large
First, a brief note on the bill. All the non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and media outlets that receive more than 20 per cent of their funds from donors outside would be obliged to register as organisations “bearing the interests of a foreign power.” They would also face reporting requirements, be forced to share sensitive information, and be heavily penalised for non-compliance. The ruling party has argued that the legislation is needed to enhance the transparency of NGO funding and protect Georgia from external influence. The growing ties with Russia and its influence are also seen as a factor in pushing the bill.
 
Second, Georgia’s tightrope between the West and Russia. With the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, Tbilisi finds itself in an intractable position. It has condemned Russia’s special military operation over Ukraine the way it has been denouncing Moscow’s actions for annexing Georgia’s territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia regions. It has criticized Russia recently for holding the Russian Presidential elections and the illegal opening of the polling stations in these two occupied regions. Yet, at the same time, the enthusiasm for joining the EU has reduced within the government.
 
Third, the divide between the government and the people. The passing of the bill, despite the protests, including by the opposition parties, and condemnation by the West, shows a defiant pro-Kremlin government in Georgia against the West. In contrast to the government’s attitude towards the EU membership, the public has been giving clear signals to the government that they want the nullification of the bill and want to be associated with the EU and not Russia. However, the government, on the contrary, is emphasizing that the people do not want another Euromaidan situation in Georgia due to the interference of the West and are supportive of the ‘foreign agent’ bill.
 
In perspective
Indications of Georgia becoming the next Belarus is becoming clearer. With the Ukraine war still going on and the economic woes that have hit Georgia would make the situation worse for the people. With the many Russians who fled to Tbilisi during the Russian military conscription would add more problems for the government. Keeping a good relationship with Russia would be a safer option given the high price and inflation that the country is facing.
 
Regarding the US threats of a traveling ban and financial restrictions on Georgian officials for implementing the bill, Georgia would not be worried because of Russia's economic resilience and growth. Rather, Georgia would be leaning more close to the Kremlin, resulting in an authoritarian and sovereign democratic country. For the EU or West, the country would become a headache in coming times, like Hungary.

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups

Rohini Reenum, Akriti Sharma, Akhil Ajith, Femy Francis, Padmashree Anandhan, Dhriti Mukherjee, and Shamini Velayutham

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Alert over environmental data theft from Chinese national reserves
On 13 May, China's spy agency and the Ministry of State Security (MSS) issued an alert about the environmental data theft from Chinese national reserves, posing a risk to national security. The MSS mentions data theft under the guise of research and environmental protection. The alert came after two theft cases were posted in an article on China's WeChat app. The first case noted the theft by a professor from an unnamed country. In the second case, a foreign university cooperated with the scientific management arm of a national nature reserve in southwest China with an NGO's support. The ministry said that the theft occurred by installing meteorological stations, infrared camera equipment, GPS mapping, and classified computer data theft. The ministry warned about the risk to ecological security and the need for public awareness against environmental espionage. 
 
China: Beijing pursues dissenters, says a BBC report
On 12 May, according to a BBC report, Beijing is still looking out for Chinese dissidents after decades. BBC reports of a secret operation named 'Yellow Bird' to allow the escape of dissidents from the Chinese mainland to British-controlled Hong Kong. The incident is linked to the student-led protests in Tiananmen Square in 1989 and its brutal crackdown by the CCP. The BBC mentions the Yellow Bird operation being organized by groups of citizens in Hong Kong, motivated by a desire to help those escape the CCP crackdown. It also noted the UK's hesitancy due to its fear of upsetting China in the handover of Hong Kong to the PRC in 1997. The BBC reported the constant Chinese interference in the UK and US through its overseas police stations to monitor and pressure the Chinese dissidents to be silent or return to China. 
 
China: PLA Navy conducts anti-missile and submarine drills in South China Sea
On 10 May, the Southern Theatre Command's PLA Navy conducted anti-missile and anti-submarine drills in the South China Sea. The command said the drills aimed at sea warfare, air defence, anti-missile warfare, and anti-submarine warfare. The announcement came a day after the end of the annual Balikatan military exercise between the United States and the Philippines, which began on 22 April. The Philippines has accused the Chinese coastguard of "dangerous maneuvers" in disputed areas of the South China Sea. 
 
North Korea: New rocket launchers 
On 11 May, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that North Korea is planning to equip its military with a new 240mm multiple rocket launcher. The KCNA said this would significantly change North Korea's artillery and capabilities. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw these live drills and testing the "technically updated rocket systems." Some analysts believe this testing comes before the artillery and missiles are sent to Russia. KCNA also reported that Kim Jong Un had asked them to increase the production of the new launcher. 

Australia: Sentences whistleblower to jail for exposing war crimes in Afghanistan
On 14 May, an Australian whistleblower, who worked in the Australian Defense Force and completed two tours to Afghanistan in 2011 and 2013 as a legal officer, was sentenced to five years and eight months in prison after he leaked sensitive military secrets in 2023. He was sentenced to trial in a military court and was accused of exposing the Australian army's war crimes, including the killing of 39 Afghans during the war. Prosecutors accused him of "personal vindication," and that the leaked information endangered Australia's national security and foreign policy. Despite the pressure, the Australian government refused to drop charges against McBride. 
 
Taiwan: Holds secret naval drills with the US in the Pacific
On 14 May, The Straits Times reported on secret naval drills held between the US and Taiwan in the Pacific in April. The drills were not publicized due to China's objection to US-Taiwan ties. The drills come as Chinese air incursions take place daily in Taiwan's air defence identification zone. China considers Taiwan a breakaway province and rejects Taiwan's sovereign claims. Taiwan's navy said that "to handle unexpected scenarios at sea and to minimize interference with each other, the navy acts in concert with the US-promoted Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea (CUES)." The drills were planned to prepare for joint military operations in an emergency. 

South Asia
Pakistan: PM Sharif yields to a protest in PoK and visits Muzaffarabad
On 16 May, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif reached Pakistan Occupied Kashmir on a one-day trip in the aftermath of the protests directed that had rocked the region last week. He was welcomed by the prime minister of PoK, Anwarul Haq and addressed the special cabinet meeting of PoK. He directed his PoK counterpart to form a committee for “essential consultations” with relevant Pakistani ministries on issues like water charge, Neelum Jhelum, and others for the benefit of the Kashmiri people. He instructed the immediate completion of the construction of the bridge of the Mangla Phase-2 project. Sharif also highlighted how Pakistan has always argued for the rights of the Kashmiri people on the international stage. He termed the demand of protestors as genuine, blamed miscreants for the violence and riots and promised a long-term solution to all problems of the region after the visit of the IMF delegation concluded.

Pakistan: Joint statement on Pakistan-US Counterterrorism Dialogue emphasizes the importance of collaboration
On 14 May, a joint statement was released for the Pakistan-US Counterterrorism Dialogue held on 10 May. The dialogue focused on cooperation between the two countries in addressing regional and global challenges, including threats by terrorist organizations such as the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K). The statement emphasized the significance of counterterrorism collaboration and capacity building. It mentioned the US training for over 300 police and frontline responders. 
 
Pakistan: Army officer and three terrorists killed in Balochistan
On 14 May, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) confirmed the killing of an army officer and three terrorists. This operation was conducted in the Sambaza area, and during the "conduct of the operation, own troops effectively engaged the terrorists' location." Following this, "weapons, ammunition, and explosives were also recovered from the killed terrorists." 
 
Afghanistan: Taliban cancels planned visit of Pakistani military delegation
On 12 May, Afghan Taliban officials cancelled a planned visit by a Pakistan military delegation to Kandahar in light of apparent protests over cross-border strikes by Pakistan targeting terror hideouts in Afghanistan. There was no response from Pakistan on the airstrikes or the delegation. 

Pakistan: Militant attacks kill seven security personnel in North Waziristan
On 11 May, two militant attacks on security forces at different locations were carried out in North Waziristan, in which seven security officers died and two others were injured. The first attack took place in the Hassan Khel area of Tehsil Datta Khel. A bomb disposal unit was targeted using the Improvised Explosive Device (IED). After the blast, militants started firing in which five securing personnel were killed and two others injured. The second attack was carried out in the Seeman area of Mir Ali, where militants attacked the security post. Two security personnel were killed in the attack.

Pakistan: Iran releases and repatriates 28 Pakistani prisoners
On 10 May, the Iranian embassy in Islamabad informed the release of twenty-eight Pakistani prisoners from Iranian jails on "humanitarian grounds." The embassy statement read, "As agreed, following the recent visit of the honourable Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi to Pakistan, 28 Pakistani prisoners were released and returned to Pakistan with the suspension of their prison sentences cherishing Islamic benignity and due to the humanitarian goals." The number of 160 Pakistani prisoners in Iranian jails stood at 160 before the current batch was released. There are 60 prisoners of Iranian nationality in the custody of Pakistani authorities.
 
Central Asia, the Middle East and Africa
Israel: US to send a new package of more than USD 1 billion in arms and ammunition
On 15 May, according to the congressional aides, the US told prominent lawmakers that it would be sending a 'new package' worth USD 1 billion in 'arms and ammunition' to Israel. It is said to be the first arms shipment consisting of ‘3500 high-payload bombs' to Israel after its announcement on halting the arms supply in response to Israel's attack on Rafah. The congressional staff, however, did not discuss the arms transfer publicly. The staff stated: "The package being sent includes about USD 700 million for tank ammunition, USD 500 million in tactical vehicles and USD 60 million in mortar rounds." 
 
Israel: IDF moves in Jabaliya camp in northern Gaza
On 15 May, the Israeli Defence Force (IDF) asserted that its 98th Division moved into Jabaliya camp in northern Gaza and killed many gunmen. The IDF stated: "Division's 7th and 460th armored brigades battled dozens of armed squads and eliminated a large number of terrorists." According to the Israeli military, a drone strike killed 'members of the cell responsible for rocket fire' in Sderot. Separately, IDF said that its 162nd Division is continuing its ground operations in southern Gaza. The Givati Brigade of the Rafah operations has killed several gunmen at the Hamas base and recovered weapons. The IDF confirmed that Nahal Brigade troops withdrew from Gaza City's Zeitoun neighbourhood. 
 
Jordan: Attacks on Al Aqsa by Israeli extremists condemned
On 14 May, the Israeli occupation soldiers shielded the radicals when they stormed the Al Aqsa Mosque or Al Haram Al Sharif, obstructing worshippers' path and raising the Israeli flag inside its courtyards. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates denounced this action. According to the ministry statement, the radical action is a "blatant" and intolerable violation of international law as well as the established legal and historical status quo for Jerusalem and its sacred places. According to ministry spokesperson Sufian Qudah, the 144 dunum Al Aqsa Mosque is a place of worship dedicated solely to Muslims, and, under international law and the established legal and historical framework, only the Jordan-run Jerusalem Awqaf and Aqsa Affairs Department is qualified to oversee its operations and control entry to the site. 

Lebanon:  Hezbollah targets Israeli forces
On 13 May, Lebanon's armed group Hezbollah claimed responsibility for a strike that wounded five Israeli soldiers. The group said that it had carried out an aerial attack on Israeli soldiers in Beit Hillel. Hezbollah stated: "The attack succeeded in killing and injuring Israeli commanders and soldiers at a newly established site for the 403rd Reserve Artillery Battalion of the 91st Division south of Beit Hillel." Separately, on 10 May, the Hezbollah group said that it had fired Katyusha rockets at Israel and killed two people. 
 
Syria: US-backed Kurdish forces hand over two militants
On 10 May, according to a war monitor, the US-backed Kurdish-led force in Syria turned over two members from the Islamic State (IS) group to Baghdad who were allegedly involved in the mass executions of Iraqi soldiers in 2014. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights report was released the day after the Iraqi National Intelligence Service declared that three IS members who had left the country had been brought back. The intelligence service provided no further information. In 2014, the Islamic State group took control of Tikrit, the hometown of Saddam Hussein, and apprehended over 1,700 Iraqi soldiers. The men were attempting to escape from the neighbouring former US base, Camp Speicher. 

Europe and the Americas
Italy: Police detain over 100 suspected members of the 'Ndrangheta mafia
On 14 May, Italian police detained one hundred and nine alleged members of the 'Ndrangheta tribe in the Calabrian city of Cosenza. The arrested members are suspected of drug trafficking, mafia association, and extortion of shopkeepers and business people in that area. According to the estimates of the Italian police, the 'Ndrangheta may control up to 80 per cent of Europe's cocaine market. The drugs that are shipped from Latin America via containers are taken for delivery by these mafia groups. The raid was carried out by anti-mafia prosecutors, with Carabinieri special police, federal and local officers along with the economic crimes' unit. Special operations against them in the past have resulted in the arrest of 30 members along with lengthy jail sentences for high-ranking bosses.
 
Norway and Germany: Signs deal to develop 3SM Supersonic Strike Missile
On 13 May, Kongsberg Defense and Aerospace (Norway's defence and aerospace systems supplier) and Diehl Defense (Germany's weapon manufacturer), with MBDA Deutschland (Germany's missile system company), entered into a new partnership agreement to develop German and Norwegian Supersonic Strike Missile (3SM) Tyrfing. The 3SM will be a new, long-distance, manoeuvrable naval strike missile to be deployed along with the existing Naval Strike Missile (NSM). According to Thomas Gottschild, the managing director of MBDA Deutschland, "standoff weapons are crucial for credible deterrence and defense." The weapon will be intended to meet future surface threats and as a joining force between both countries.

Germany: Protestors demonstrate against the expansion of Tesla factory again
On 10 May, the BBC reported that hundreds of climate protestors clashed with police in Germany against the expansion of the Tesla factory. As a result, many were injured, including three police officers. Police arrested several and prevented activists from accessing the facility. The protests came as Tesla proposed to double the factory, which could lead to environmental damage. Protestors blocked the road, motorway and railway near the factory. Tesla announced the factory's closure and criticized the police for freeing the protestors. Known as Gigafactory, with 12,000 people and 500,000 cars per year, production had halted in March after a power outage after an attack.

Panama: UNICEF report notes increase in child migration through Darien Gap
On 15 May, a report released by UNICEF highlighted that child migration through the Darien Gap in Panama had gone up by 40 per cent in 2024, with around 30,000 children under the age of 18 estimated to have crossed the trail between Colombia and Panama. The Deputy Executive Director of UNICEF, Ted Chaiban, noted that "many children have died on this dangerous and arduous trip," pointing out the need for "UNICEF's presence and help" given that "children make up one-fifth of those making this journey." Migrants go through the dangerous Darien Gap to reach the US-Mexico border; in 2023, more than 500,000 people crossed it. UNICEF has predicted that by the end of 2024, as many as 800,000 migrants and 160,000 minors could make the crossing.
 
Canada: Wildfires in Alberta province
On 14 May, residents of the Canadian province of Alberta were given evacuation orders by the Regional Municipality of Wood Buffalo amid growing wildfires near the community. The municipality explained: "These neighbourhoods directly interface with where the fire could spread. Regional Emergency Services will better be able to defend these neighbourhoods from a wildfire if they are uninhabited and clear." MWF107, the name given to the ongoing wildfire, has grown to 9,602 hectares and is considered out of control, as per Alberta Wildfire Agency. Further, "smoke is impacting visibility. It is difficult to determine accurate distances." Firefighters faced challenges as fire activity increased "on the northeastern edge of the wildfire, driven by winds from the southwest" while "smoke columns" were developing.

The US: Sanctions against two RSF commanders amid a surge in violence
On 15 May, the US Department of Treasury announced that sanctions had been imposed against two commanders of Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), Central Darfur commander Ali Yagoub Gibril and major-general Osman Mohamed Hamid Mohamed. These sanctions, which freeze the individuals' assets in the country and prevent US citizens or entities from conducting business with them, came as rights groups and the UN warned of an escalation in violence in the North Darfur region. Treasury official Brian Nelson stated: "While the Sudanese people continue to demand an end to this conflict, these commanders have been focused on expanding to new fronts and battling for control of more territory." After the RSF encircled the capital of North Darfur, fighting between the group and the Sudanese Armed Forces has surged in the last few weeks. Earlier, a spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that this violence put more than 800,000 civilians at risk.
 
The US: Removes Cuba from the list of countries "not cooperating fully" against terrorism
On 15 May, a US State Department official stated that the US decided to remove Cuba from a list of countries the US alleges are "not cooperating fully" against terrorism. This decision was due to the resumption of law enforcement cooperation between Cuba and the US, which rendered Cuba's previous designation "no longer appropriate." The official added: "The department determined that the circumstances for Cuba's certification as a 'not fully cooperating country' have changed from 2022 to 2023." This decision is significant as it marks a shift in the stance of the administration of US President Joe Biden, which has, till now, maintained Donald Trump-era restrictions on Cuba. In response, Cuba's Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez welcomed the decision as a sign of the US admitting "what is known to everyone: that Cuba collaborates fully with efforts against terrorism." He also said: "All political manipulation of the issue should cease, and our arbitrary and unjust inclusion on the list of countries sponsoring terrorism should end."

The US: President signs a bill banning import of Russian Uranium
On 13 May, The Washington Post reported on the US President, Joe Biden, signing a bipartisan bill prohibiting Russia's import of enriched Uranium. This is used to fuel nuclear power plants, and the bill aims to cut off one of the last significant transactions between the US and Russia. After the war began in February 2022, the US Congress immediately banned Russian oil and gas imports, but the ban on uranium imports was prolonged. Scott Melbye, executive vice president of mining company Uranium Energy, said: "It's kind of ridiculous that it took as long as it did to get to this stage… But we're just glad that we got here." According to the report, US companies pay USD one billion every year to Russia's Rosatom, a nuclear power conglomerate for uranium. These have come under scrutiny when Rosatom was found to be aiding Russia's arms industry with components, technology and raw materials for missile fuel. The adopted bill banned uranium imports from Russia 90 days after its enactment. It gives a waiver till 2028 for utilities, which would shut down its nuclear reactors after the Russian supply is cut. This would also mean a USD 2.7 billion fund diversion into domestic uranium production, which might help the US reach its long-term goal of 100 per cent clean electricity by 2035.

Newsmakers This Week
New Chinese Ambassador to India, New Defence Minister in Russia, Protests in Scarborough shoal and Russian Offensive in Kharkiv
Tejasvini Adya MM, Ken B Varghese and Padmashree Anadhan

Xu Feihong: China's new Chinese Ambassador to India emphasise to restore exchanges
On 10 May 2024, Mr Xu Feihong, arrived in New Delhi as the Chinese Ambassador to India. Mr Feihong, in his media interaction, underscored his commitment to foster mutual understanding and trust between India and China. He emphasized on the need to restore exchanges and cooperation in various fields, and building a conducive environment for the stable development of China-India relations. He reiterated that India and China are not threats to each other, but rather, opportunities for mutual growth. 

The position was vacant for 18 months, and his appointment comes during a crucial time in India—China relations.

Sergei Shoigu: Moved out as Russia's defence minister
On 12 May, Russian President Vladimir Putin shifted Sergei Shoigu from being the Defence Minister in a Cabinet shakeup and appointed as the secretary of Russia's Security Council. Shoigu had been the defence minister for 12 years, and spearheaded Russia's offensive in Ukraine. 
Shoigu is an important figure in Russian politics, now given the task of overseeing broader security policies within the Security Council.

Shoigu's replacement was long-anticipated, given the criticism and doubts about his handling of the Ukraine war. His reputation was further questioned when one of his deputies, Timur Ivanov, was arrested on corruption charges. These events, coupled with Russia's military setbacks  and Shoigu's public disagreement with the Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin (who had accused Shoigu of corruption and demanded his dismissal) may have led to this unexpected replacement. 
Andrei Belousov has been appointed as Russia's new defence minister.

Scarborough shoal in South China Sea: Protests by the Filipino fishermen
On 14 May 2024, a flotilla of around 100 Filipino and anglers cruised towards a disputed shore within the South China Sea, where China used powerful water cannons to ward off the small Filipino fishing boat. The Philippine Naval force and coast guard sent watch ships to keep an observation on the activists and fishermen from distant, who set off on wooden boats with bamboo outriggers, to emphasis Manila's sway over the Scarborough Shore. Numerous activists and volunteers laid dozens of territorial buoys and dispersed food and fuel to the Filipino fishers close to the reef.

The Philippines condemned the Chinese coast guard's activity on the reef, despite global recognition as an exclusive economic zone of Southeast Asian countries. China reacted by saying it took essential measures after the Philippine ships violated its sovereignty.

Ukraine: Military confirms advance of Russian forces in Kharkiv
On 10 May, Ukraine's military reported on the Russian force's progress of one kilometre northeast of Kharkiv near Vovchansk. According to the report, the Russian military had aimed to advance 10 kilometres to create a buffer zone. Earlier, Ukraine's Defence Ministry reported on Russian forces' attempt to breach the Kharkiv border by deploying armoured vehicles and heavy shelling. In a statement, the Ministry said: "At approximately 5 a.m., there was an attempt by the enemy to break through our defensive line under the cover of armored vehicles." On 10 May, Ukraine's air force reported on Russia launching two S-300 and S-400 missiles over Kharkiv. The same was confirmed by Ihor Terekhov, Mayor of Kharkiv. The attack damaged more than two dozen buildings while Ukraine forces had claimed to intercept 10 Russian missiles launched across Odesa, Mykolaiv and Kherson. On the same, Ukraine's President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, stated that Ukraine had "anticipated" the Russian attack and planned the response. He added: "Russia launched a new wave of counteroffensive actions in this area. Ukraine met them there with our troops, brigades, and artillery... Now there is a fierce battle underway in this direction."
 
On the same day, in response to Ukraine's report on Russia's progress of one kilometre in Kharkiv, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby provided the US predictions. According to Kirby, Russia is expected to advance in the coming weeks but stressed that it sees no breakthrough. He added that the gap will be filled by US assistance, enabling Ukraine to defend itself over the months of 2024. Kirby also said: "Russia will likely increase the intensity of fire and commit additional troops in an attempt to establish a shallow buffer zone along the Ukrainian border." On 12 May, RT reported on Russian troops' launch of a new offensive in the Kharkiv region, sparking an intense fight and dynamic situation. According to the report, active combat was present in the front and rear lines of the Ukrainian army on the Kharkiv border. At the same time, military facilities and infrastructure used by the Ukrainian forces were damaged to a distance of 10 to 50 kilometres. Earlier, the Russian defence ministry had announced that its northern units had gained control of a few settlements in Kharkiv and claimed to advance 30 kilometres in the northeast of Kharkiv. It is the second-largest city, less than 40 kilometres from the Russian border. The Russian military first attempted to capture the city but failed due to poor organization and fewer forces. This helped Ukraine form a "positional front" to launch attacks on Belgorod and nearby areas. Therefore, capturing this would mean controlling Ukraine's activities in Belgorod. On 17 May, Vladimir Putin, Russia's President stated that Russia had no intention in capturing Kharkiv but so far the Russian forces have claimed to have progressed 10 kilometers.

Print Bookmark

PREVIOUS COMMENTS

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1189

Hoimi Mukherjee | Hoimi Mukherjee is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science in Bankura Zilla Saradamani Mahila Mahavidyapith.

Chile in 2023: Crises of Constitutionality
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1187

Aprajita Kashyap | Aprajita Kashyap is a faculty of Latin American Studies, School of International Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi.

Haiti in 2023: The Humanitarian Crisis
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1185

Binod Khanal | Binod Khanal is a Doctoral candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.

The Baltic: Energy, Russia, NATO and China
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1183

Padmashree Anandhan | Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangaluru.

Germany in 2023: Defence, Economy and Energy Triangle
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1178

​​​​​​​Ashok Alex Luke | Ashok Alex Luke is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at CMS College, Kottayam.

China and South Asia in 2023: Advantage Beijing?
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1177

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri | Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

China and East Asia
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts