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CWA # 1378, 12 July 2024
Conflict Weekly
Continuing Crisis in Kenya, Doha Talks with the Taliban, and Suicide Bombings in Nigeria

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #235&236, 12 July 2024, Vol.5, No.27 & 28
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Nuha Aamina, Ayan Datta and Anu Maria Joseph

Kenya: Crisis continues, as the protests expand despite President's interventions
Anu Maria Joseph
 
In the news
On 11 July,  Kenyan President William Ruto dissolved the cabinet following the protests which have been ongoing since the end of June. Ruto claimed that the move came after "reflection, listening to Kenyans, and after holistic appraisal of my cabinet."

On 2 July, Kenyan police fired tear gas to disperse the protesters in the capital Nairobi. The new round of protests erupted after President William Ruto promised to withdraw the controversial financial bill on 28 June. The protesters are demanding Ruto's resignation. 

On 3 July, the Directorate of Criminal Investigations (DCI) reported that at least 270 people were arrested for criminal rampage during the protests. It stated: "The DCI has further deployed scrupulous investigators across the affected regions to pursue suspects captured on CCTV cameras and mobile phone recordings violently robbing, stealing and destroying properties and businesses of innocent citizens."

The same day, the Kenya National Commission on Human Rights (KNCHR) reported that 39 people had been killed during the violent protests across the country.

On 1 July, Ruto said that the country will have to further depend on borrowing USD Seven billion to "be able to run our government." He stated: "I have been working very hard to pull Kenya out of a debt trap. It is very easy for us, as a country to say: 'Let us reject the financial bill.' That is fine and I have graciously said we will drop the financial bill. But it will have huge consequences."

On 29 June, one of the protesters commented: "I am not afraid to die, many have died before us. Many more will die but we have to stand up for our generation who are being taken for fools by the politicians."
 
Issues at large
First, expansion and intensification of protests in Kenya. The protests began in early June against a financial bill to increase taxes to address the debt crisis of USD 80 billion. Although Ruto withdrew the bill, the protests continued. What began as a protest against the tax hike is currently over public grievances, corruption, misgovernance and a demand for Ruto's resignation. What started in the capital (Nairobi) has expanded to 35 of Kenya's 47 counties. They have cut across geographic, social and ethnic landscapes. The protesters have been chanting, "Ruto must go." They are demanding the police be held accountable for their brutality during the previous week's protests, which killed 39 people. Many fear that Ruto could still sign the bill before it expires next week. The anger also amounts to a year-long public discontent against Ruto's series of tax hikes and financial management since he came to power.

Second, new faces of protest. Traditionally, Kenyan protests have been led by elites. They often were on ethnic lines; the minority against the majority over marginalisation. Several protests end up in power-sharing deals between the leadership and a few benefits to the protesters. However, this time, protests are led by the younger generation. Uniquely, they are not supported by any political parties. They were mobilised through social media without any leadership. Hashtags of #OccupyPrliament, #RutoMustGo and #RejectBudgetCorruption were trending on social media. On TikTok, many influencers circulated videos highlighting the harm government policies were causing. 

Third, President Ruto's reponse. Ruto's administration has placed its response between repression and accommodation. Police used tear gas and live ammunition after protesters set fire to the parliament house, causing several deaths. They continue to use tear gas to disperse the protesters. KNCHR reported 32 cases of "enforced or involuntary disappearance" and 627 arrests. Meanwhile, Ruto, on 26 June, promised talks with protesters, stating that "I run a government, but I also lead people, and the people have spoken." 

Fourth, the international response. There were swift international responses at the initial stage. The previous week, the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed concerns over the deaths of the protestors. The AU called on the stakeholders to hold dialogues on the issues. The US, which lately designated Kenya as its non-NATO ally, condemned the violence and urged to restore order.
 
In perspective
The protests have expanded in terms of geography and intensity. However, they are not organised but fragmented, implying a likely slow death unless proper leadership takes over. Despite this, Ruto's withdrawal of the bill did too little to contain the protests. The protesters demand accountable governance and Ruto's resignation. Ruto's double stance by violently suppressing the protests while maintaining the rhetoric of "the people have spoken" was received with scepticism. The public has perceived Ruto's latest statement about the debt crisis and money requirement to run the government as more of a threat; a threat to force the public to agree to the bill.

International response to the violence seems limited to the initial week. The second phase of the protest received a silent response. 

African countries are known for their extraordinary success of mass mobilisation and protest movements- the Arab Spring in 2011, the Sudanese Revolution in 2019, the #ZumaMustFall protests in South Africa in 2020, and the #EndSARS protests in Nigeria in 2020. They have always been inclusive beyond the class, ethnic, regional and religious divides. They recorded an immediate success. All of them were born and grown through social media. Although the long-term success of African protest movements is debated, the immediate success implies the capacity to mobilise the masses inclusively. It is yet to see how Kenyan protests will unfold. The potential for divisions and differences is high without organised leadership, implying a major challenge.

Afghanistan: The Doha Talks with the Taliban
Nuha Aamina

In the news
On 30 June, a two-day meeting at Doha took place between the UN and the Taliban. DiCarlo (representing the UN), Qatar's special envoy to Afghanistan, twenty-four envoys from other countries, and Zabiullah Mujahid (the Chief Spokesperson of Afghanistan) participated in the discussions. The UN sought to discuss peace within and beyond Afghan borders. The Taliban was interested in discussing the restrictions imposed on the financial and banking systems and alternative livelihoods for farmers after banning the cultivation of opioids. Earlier, on 29 June, the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan (HRCP) wrote a letter to the UN Secretary Council (UNSC), urging the body to reconsider its decision to engage with the Taliban regime in the Doha-III meeting. It outlined that before acknowledging Afghanistan on the international stage, there is a need to address gender apartheid and protect the human rights of women and religious minorities. 

On 1 July, the third meeting of Special Envoys on Afghanistan focused on assisting the private sector and fighting narcotics. According to DiCarlo, there was a “deep international concern- from special envoys” and her “about the ongoing serious restrictions on women and girls.” She said, “Afghanistan cannot return to the international fold, or fully develop economically and socially" if half of its population doesn't contribute to the growth. 

Former commissioner of the Independent Human Rights Commission of Afghanistan, Shabnam Salehi, described this meeting as “inconclusive” due to the non-inclusion of women and the UN’s approach as “misguided”. At a press briefing, the Taliban stated that the discussion around  women's rights was “Afghanistan's issue.”

Issues at large
First, the ground situation in Afghanistan since the Taliban takeover. In the UN’s recent reports, since the takeover, there have been at least "800 human rights violations," "218 extrajudicial deaths," and "14 enforced disappearances of former government officials." In 2023, Afghanistan ranked last in the Women's Peace and Security Index, which aims to assess countries' progress in women's inclusion, justice, and security. It faced one of the most severe humanitarian crises, with about two-thirds of its population needing humanitarian aid. UN's reports stated that by mid-2023, approximately four million civilians were suffering from acute malnourishment, including nearly three million children under the age of five.  

Second, the Doha Talks. Taliban was not invited to the first one in May 2023. The second was held in February 2024.  Earlier dialogues were centred around human rights and influencing the Taliban. They did not succeed and could be the reason for the UN to engage directly with the Taliban. 

In perspective
The third round of Doha talks is significant because it marks the first time the Taliban is engaging with international envoys on Afghanistan since coming to power in 2021. The meeting started with the “obstacles” the Taliban is dealing with, such as developing the private sector and receiving inputs from the special envoys. Throughout the session, the issues of human rights, mostly about women and girls were raised, even with subjects around developing the economy and counter-narcotics.  

Previously, several countries were hesitant to recognize the Taliban, and this sentiment was reiterated during the UN-led meeting, clarifying that the conference was not intended to legitimize Afghanistan's authority but to discuss humanitarian issues. There has been a shift from isolating the state to engaging in diplomatic discussions. These talks could potentially increase the Taliban's bargaining power, compelling countries to engage with them as the de facto authority. 

Suicide Bombings in Nigeria
Ayan Datta  
 
In the news
On 29 June, three female suicide bombers targeted a wedding, a funeral and a market in northwestern Nigeria’s Borno State. The attacks killed around 32 civilians and injured around 48. Although no group claimed the attack, the armed groups Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) were suspected because they used female suicide bombers in past attacks. Nigeria’s President, Bola Tinubu, stated that the acts were “desperate acts of terror” and that the government would “not allow the nation to slither into an era of fear, tears, sorrow, and blood.”
On 28 June, armed groups killed 17 people in Borno State. 
 
Issues at large
First, an overview of insurgent groups operating in Nigeria’s Borno state: Since the early 2000s, the Borno state became the operating base of three armed groups: Boko Haram, the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Ansaru. In 2002, a Salafist preacher, Mohammad Yusuf, established Boko Haram in Borno’s capital, Maiduguri. Its objective was to establish a Sunni Islamic State and oppose Western culture and education. In 2012, Ansaru emerged as a faction of Boko Haram and aligned with Al-Qaeda. Ansaru focused on targeting foreigners and Nigerian government officials. In 2015, Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekaku formed an ISIS-aligned splinter group called Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) to establish a caliphate in West Africa. 

Second, the continuing suicide attacks in Nigeria. In 2011, Boko Haram began using suicide attacks in Nigeria. Since then, Boko Haram and ISWAP regularly used this tactic. During 2011-2018, armed groups carried out around 245 suicide bombings. From 2018-2024, the number of attacks was around 35. 

Third, using women and girls for suicide attacks. In 2014, Boko Haram began the practice of using female suicide bombers. The attacks often involved multiple women who detonated in coordination. According to survivors' accounts, the group abducted women and girls, brainwashed them, and forced them to carry out suicide attacks. The women are threatened with violence if they refuse. However, ISWAP reduced the use of female suicide bombers to gain local support and avoid civilian casualties. 

Fourth, a profile of the victims and locations of the armed groups. Boko Haram targeted civilians of all religions in 85 per cent of its suicide bombings and attacked public spaces like markets, weddings and hospitals. However, ISWAP and Ansaru targeted non-Muslim civilians like Christians and the visible sites of government presence, including government officials, police stations, and military camps.
 
In perspective
First, armed groups use female suicide bombers because of tactical reasons. Armed groups like Boko Haram use women to carry out suicide attacks because they are assumed to be beyond suspicion, cannot be body-searched by male soldiers, and can be trained cheaply. For little cost, these bombings create public insecurity, cripple local economies and boost morale and cohesion among members of the armed group.

Second,  the government’s ineffectiveness in suppressing armed groups in the Borno region. Nigeria’s military is severely underfunded, with significant funds lost yearly because of corruption in the Ministry of Defence. Since the military is underfunded, the armed groups often have more advanced equipment than the army overwhelms them in battles. 

Third, reasons for the prevalence of armed groups in the Borno region. All three of Nigeria’s armed groups are based in the Borno State, located on the country’s geographic and political periphery. Owing to low state capacity, government institutions aside from military camps are almost absent in the Borno. The region is prone to raids by bandits and armed groups. Under such conditions, local youths often join one of the groups for economic benefits and protection against other groups.

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Rohini Reenum, Akriti Sharma, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan, Dhriti Mukherjee, Vetriselvi Baskaran, Ayan Datta, Ken B Varghese, Mugdha Chaturvedi, Sayeka Ghosh and Neha Tresa George

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Fighter jet J-31B ready for service
On 6 July, the Chinese state broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV) reported that the country’s latest stealth fighter jet with carrier-based potential is ready for military service. The FC-31 Gyrfalcon, officially “J-31B,” is expected to complement the J-20, China’s most advanced stealth fighter jet which came into service in 2017. CCTV released a promotional video by the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, a warplane developer and state-owned subsidiary of one of China’s top defence contractors. The video featured a computer-generated prototype of the new jet with a side weapon bay carrying two missiles.

China: Commerce ministry sets hearing date for EU brandy anti-dumping probe
On 5 July, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a hearing on 18 July related to the anti-dumping investigation into EU brandy imports to ensure fairness and transparency. The probe was initiated in January following a request by the China Alcoholic Drinks Association. It will examine EU-produced brandy in containers holding less than 200 litres imported between October 2022 and September 2023. Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao emphasised that the investigation “neither targets any specific EU member state nor carries predefined findings.” A research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, Zhou Mi, noted that the process demonstrates China's adherence to WTO rules. The hearing would involve parties including Martell and Hennessy. The probe is expected to conclude by January 2025. 

Japan: Defence agreement with the Philippines
On 8 July, Japan and the Philippines signed a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA). The pact, Japan's first with a Southeast Asian country, facilitates joint military exercises and easier access to Philippine bases. Defence expert, John Bradford, noted that the pact reflected the “unprecedented similarity between the nations' threat perspectives” regarding China. Japanese Minister of Defence Minoru Kihara emphasised the strategic importance of the Philippines for realising a "free and open Indo-Pacific."

North Korea: Military delegation visits Russia
On 9 July, North Korea sent a military training delegation to Russia following the signing of a defence treaty in June. South Korean Ministry of spokesperson Lim Soo-suk stateded that any military cooperation strengthening North Korea's capabilities violates UN sanctions. The visit came on the sidelines of escalating tensions in the Korean peninsula. South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol questioned Russia's priorities in the region. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov rejected Yoon's comments by asserting Russia's desire for good relations with both Koreas. 

China: Russian and Chinese companies replicate Iran’s Shahed drone
On 3 July, Bloomberg cited European sources who stated that Chinese and Russian companies were developing an attack drone similar to an Iranian model deployed in Ukraine. Western officials familiar with the matter took this as a sign that Beijing could be moving closer to providing lethal aid, though Chinese drones have not been used in Ukraine yet. The companies from both two countries have been in talks since 2023 regarding collaboration to replicate Iran’s Shahed drone, and the provision of these drones to Russia will deepen China’s support to Russia despite repeated warnings from the US and its allies. 
 
Taiwan: Military plan to convert temples into ammunition storehouses receives public opposition
On 30 June, three temples in Taiwan’s Miaoli used local news sources to make a document detailing the Taiwanese military’s proposal to convert local temples into ammunition depots during wartime public. This sparked public concerns about these sites being targeted in case of a cross-conflict. Temples in Maoli were sent an official document from a local reserve command, asking them to sign an agreement that allows the military to use their open spaces to store the ammunition. The document specified that in case of a potential war, the command plans to transport some ammunition from its depot to the open areas in the temples. It further explained that this would “facilitate the resupply of ammunition for reserve brigade units, ensuring continued combat effectiveness.”  The plan was rejected by Miaoli’s residents, particularly those living around these temples.
 
China: UN envoy calls on Israel to ensure quick entry of humanitarian aid to Gaza
On 2 July, during a UN Security Council (UNSC) briefing on the situation in the Middle East, China’s permanent representative to the UN, Fu Cong, urged Israel to fulfil its obligations under international humanitarian law by ensuring the rapid and unobstructed entry of humanitarian aid to Gaza. Cong detailed that the severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza is being worsened by extreme shortages of essential supplies and poor health conditions in the region. He noted that as a result of the man-made humanitarian disaster, “millions of people are struggling with hunger, disease, pain, and despair.” Cong opined that over two million people in Gaza are living in an “open-air prison” as they have been deprived of water, electricity, food, medication, and fuel. He criticised the closure of Rafah crossing, arguing that the “existing crossing points are far from being able to meet the demand for humanitarian aid.” Cong thus asserted that “hunger cannot be weaponised, humanitarian issues cannot be politicised.”

South Korea: First trilateral military exercise with the US and Japan comes to an end
On 29 June, The Korea Times reported South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said that the first trilateral multidomain military exercise between the US, Japan, and South Korea, known as “Freedom Edge,” was set to conclude on the same day The drills, which involved various warships and aircraft including the USS Theodore Roosevelt and ROKS Seoae Ryu Seong-ryong destroyer, began on 27 June. In a statement, the JCS stated that Freedom Edge enhanced the “deterrence and response against North Korean nuclear and missile threats.” The statement added: “It was also significant that the three countries conducted cyber training together for the first time.” This was the first trilateral exercise to be held across multiple domains, including air, underwater, and cyber.  

Maritime: RIMPAC drills start in the Asia-Pacific region
On 28 June, the opening ceremony of the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC), the “world’s largest international maritime exercise” hosted by the US Pacific Fleet, was held in Hawaii. RIMPAC is held every alternate year and brings together the armed forces of 29 countries for five weeks of training to strengthen multilateral relations and promote “a free and open Indo-Pacific.” The drill this year includes militaries from South Korea, Japan, and India and several other countries. Israel will also be joining in its third RIMPAC, which led to protests from pro-Palestinian groups. The exercise centres around combat and contingency training on land, air, and water. The drill will include 150 aircraft, 40 surface ships, three submarines, and more than 25,000 personnel conducting amphibious landing, urban combat training, anti-submarine warfare, ship sinking exercises, and cyber, and space operations. 

South Asia
Pakistan: Terrorist killed in Gilgit-Baltistan
On 4 July, Dawn reported that security forces killed an alleged terrorist in Deral Valley in Diamer. The military operation led to the death of four Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) scouts personnel and two civilians. GB Minister of Interior Shams Lone said that the intelligence-based operation targeted three terrorists for their suspected involvement in an attack in 2023 which killed nine people in Diamer. 

Pakistan: Bomb attack in Mardan 
On 5 July, a bomb attack on the Jalala Bridge at Malakand-Mardan Road killed three people and injured five others, including two children. A police spokesperson, Farman Ali Khan told Dawn that the bomb was triggered when a police van and motorcycle rickshaw were crossing the bridge. Three passengers in the rickshaw were killed. The area has been cordoned off and a search operation has been launched.

India: Manipur police arrests two members of Arambai Tenggol
On 10 July, Manipur police arrested two members of Arambai Tenggol, a radical Meitei outfit in Imphal. The police seized arms and ammunition and registered for “further investigation and legal action.” The group has emerged as one of the prominent armed actors in Manipur. On 9 July, the police and CRPF arrested three people identified as “armed cadres of an underground outfit.” On 10 July, people protested and called for a shutdown following the arrests.

Pakistan: Ambassador asks US for “sophisticated small arms” for counter-terror operation, Azm-i-Istehkam
On 29 June, Dawn reported that Pakistan’s envoy to the US, Masood Khan requested Washington to provide small arms and modern equipment to Islamabad to help ensure the success of Operation Azm-i-Isethkam. Recently, the Pakistani federal government had given a nod to the national counter-terrorism campaign operation. In this regard, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif had assured that the initiative would not be large-scale in nature. During an address at the Wilson Centre, a think tank in Washington, Khan elaborated that the operation is made of three components- doctrinal, societal, and operational- and work on the first two has begun already. Noting the importance of strong security links between the US and Pakistan, he added that “this is crucial for regional security and opposing the rising tide of terrorism that also threatens the interests of the US and its allies.” Khan said that since both countries “share values” and their “security and economic interests are interwoven,” the bilateral relationship should not be held “hostage” by a few issues. 

Pakistan: Former Senator Hidayatullah Khan killed in an IED blast in Bajaur
On 3 July, five people were killed in an improvised explosive device (IED) blast that happened in Sesai village of Mamund tehsil, Bajaur tribal district. Former independent Senator Hidayatullah Khan was also among those killed. Deputy Superintendent of Police Bakht Munir revealed that “Khan was on his way to attend a planned campaign event for his nephew when his vehicle was targeted by an IED.” Malik Irfanullah, a police officer and the senator’s close relative was also killed in the blast. The bomb disposal squad revealed that around five to seven kilograms of explosives were used in the explosion. The police spokesman termed the incident an act of terrorism, even though no group claimed responsibility for the attack. The attack was widely condemned in Pakistan, including criticism by Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur, the Awami National Party, the Jamiat Ulema-i Islam, and several others. 

Pakistan: Land-to-Air missile FN-6 successfully test-fired by the Pakistan Navy
On 3 July, the firing of FN-6 missile, a land-to-air missile, was successfully tested by the Pakistan Navy (PN).  A statement by the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) revealed that the Pakistan Navy’s ground-based air defence system was used to test the firing of FN-6 missiles. PN’s Ground-Based Air Defense System successfully engaged the aerial objectives during the test. Commander Coast Vice Admiral Raja Rab Nawaz, who was the chief guest for the occasion, “expressed full satisfaction over the operational preparedness of Pakistan Navy’s Ground-Based Air Defense System.”

The Middle East and Africa
Israel: IDF releases report on the 7 October attack
On 11 July, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) published the findings of Hamas’ 7 October attack. The IDF admitted that it failed to protect its citizens, especially those in the Kibbutz Be’eri community. Hamas killed over 100 people in Be’eri and took 32 hostages. The IDF lauded the efforts of the Be-eri’s residents and rapid response team who tried to repel the attackers. 

Israel: US to close Gaza Pier 
On 11 July, the Pentagon Press Secretary Major General Pat Ryder stated that the US-built temporary pier in Gaza “will soon cease operations.” He added: “The pier and support vessels and equipment are returning to Ashdod, where they will remain until further notice.”  

Qatar: Egypt, Israel and US intelligence heads to resume ceasefire talks in Doha 
On 9 July, according to Reuters, ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas would resume on 10 June in the Qatari capital Doha. The Director of Egypt’s General Intelligence Directorate Abbas Kamel, Mossad Director David Barnea, and Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns will be the attendees. 

Yemen: Houthis strike three ships for violating “the ban on access to Israeli ports”
On 9 July, the Houthi armed group’s spokesperson, Yahya Saree, stated that it attacked three ships in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Aden with “a combination of ballistic and winged missiles.” The group targeted the US ship Maersk Sentosa, the Israeli ship MSC Patnareem and the Maltese ship Marathopolis with drones. Saree said that they attacked the ships because they “violated the ban on access to Israeli ports.”

Israel: IDF continues attacks in Gaza, Palestinian Israeli stabs two soldiers
On 1 July, Al Jazeera reported that Israeli raids in Nuseirat and Gaza City killed 28 people. Separately, an Israeli citizen of Palestinian ethnicity stabbed two Israeli soldiers in a shopping mall in northern Israel’s Karmiel city, killing one soldier and injuring another. Additionally, the Palestinian Red Crescent reported that an Israeli attack in Gaza City killed four Palestinians.

Yemen: US Central Command destroys Houthi targets in Yemen and Red Sea
On 3 July, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated on X that its forces destroyed two Houthi radar sites in Yemen and two uncrewed surface vessels (USV) in the Red Sea. It added that the radar sites and USV were “imminent threats” to US forces and merchant ships passing the region, and it destroyed them to “protect freedom of navigation” and secure international waters. Earlier on 1 July, CENTCOM said it had destroyed one more Houthi radar site in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen.  

Lebanon: Israeli airstrike kills senior Hezbollah commander
On 3 July, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) stated that they eliminated Hezbollah’s Commander, Muhammad Neamah Naser. The IDF detailed that he led the armed group’s rocket and missile strikes at Israeli civilians from southwestern Lebanon. Reuters cited two security sources in Lebanon who said that Naser was killed by an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon’s Tyre city, making him one of the seniormost Hezbollah commanders to die in the ongoing Israel-Lebanon conflict. Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said that Israeli forces had been hitting Hezbollah “very hard every day,” and while it would take necessary action against the group, the preference would be to reach a negotiated agreement. In response, Hezbollah fired rockets at Israeli military positions in the Golan Heights. 

Iraq: Government arrests three suspects for suspected ties to banned armed group PKK
On 1 July, Iraq said it had arrested three people linked with the political party and armed group Kurdistan People’s Party (PKK), who were suspected of planning attacks across Iraq, including on an oil pipeline. Iraq’s Interior Ministry spokesperson Brigadier General Muqdad Meeri said that as per an investigation, “these PKK members had plans to attack the Ceyhan oil pipeline linking Kirkuk, Erbil and Duhok to Turkey.” He added that all three suspects confessed to setting sabotage fires at commercial markets over the last few months, which had incurred losses of about USD 300 million, as per orders from the PKK to attack the commercial interests of a “neighbouring state.” The PKK is banned as a terrorist organisation in Turkey, the US, and the European Union, and has bases around northern Iraq. In response, the armed group dismissed the accusations, asserting it was not involved in the arson attacks and instead blamed Turkey’s intelligence agency for it.

Africa: Sahara land route twice as deadly as Mediterranean Sea route for migrants, reports UNHCR
On 5 July, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, International Organization for Migration (IOM), and Mixed Migration Centre published a joint report titled “On this Journey, No One Cares If You Live or Die.” According to the report, African migrants taking the Sahara land route to Europe is twice as deadly as the Mediterranean Sea route. UNHCR's special envoy for the Central Mediterranean situation, Vincent Cochetel, stated: “Many people tell us that they are aware of someone who has died on the way, normally more on the land routes than on the sea routes… risk of kidnapping seems to be a new one. It used to be mentioned by 2% of the respondents four years ago. Now it is mentioned by 18% of the respondents. Almost one out of five claim that the journey involved that risk of kidnapping.” 

Niger: US troops withdraw from Air Base 101 by 7 July
On 5 July, Reuters quoted US Air Force Major General Kenneth Ekman that the US would withdraw its troops from Air Base 101 by 7 July. Erkman stated: "We will do a joint ceremony on that occasion that marks the departure of the last U.S. C-17 (aircraft). The government of Niger will assume control of former U.S. areas and facilities.” In March, Niger’s military government ordered the US to withdraw its troops from the country. 

Niger: Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso form the Alliance of Sahel States (AES)
On 6 July, Reuters reported that Mali’s interim President Assimi Goita, Niger’s President General Abdourahamane Tiani, and Burkina’s Faso’s President Captain Ibrahim Traore withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) confederation. Tiani stated: “It is up to us today to make the AES Confederation an alternative to any artificial regional group by building ... a community free from the control of foreign powers." The leaders released a joint communique agreeing to coordinate diplomatically and establish an AES investment bank and mining, energy, and agriculture projects. 

Ethiopia: US Ambassador says 100 people kidnapped in one week
On 8 July, Reuters quoted the US Ambassador to Ethiopia Ervin Massinga that around 100 people had been kidnapped the previous week in the country. Massinga stated: “Recent and frequent kidnappings in Oromia and Amhara regions show how prolonged conflict emboldens criminals and weakens (the) rule of law.” According to the UN, in 2023, 1300 people were killed in kidnappings across the country. 

Democratic Republic of Congo: Uganda and Rwanda backing M23 group, says UN experts
On 10 July, according to BBC, the UN Group of Experts report on the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) stated that Uganda and Rwanda were supporting the M23 armed group in DRC. The report stated that while Uganda sent military intelligence officers to coordinate with M23 leaders and allowed the armed group’s leader to travel to Uganda, Rwanda supplied around 4,000 troops to fight with M23. The report stated that the crisis was rapidly escalating and “carried the risk of triggering a wider regional conflict.” 

Europe and The Americas
Turkey: Border crossing with Syria closed following an exchange of fire between troops and protestors 
On 3 July, according to the BBC, Turkey closed its border crossings into northwest Syria after Syrians angered by violence against their people in Turkey attacked Turkish troops. Following an exchange of fire between the troops and armed protesters in Syria’s Afrin city, four people were killed. Turkish police arrested roughly 500 individuals following these attacks, which saw angry Syrians throwing stones at Turkish military convoys and tearing down Turkish flags. Presently, more than three million Syrian refugees stay in Turkey, and tensions between local communities and these refugees have been increasing. 

Ukraine: Hungarian Prime Minister proposes “swift ceasefire” with Russia
On 2 July, during a surprise visit to Kyiv, Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán suggested a swift ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia during negotiations and told Ukraine that it should not wait for Moscow to withdraw its troops before starting these talks. In a press release, Orbán noted that since the “rules of international diplomacy are slow and complex,” he asked Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to “consider whether it would be possible to reverse the order and to speed up the peace negotiations with a swift ceasefire.” He added that a “ceasefire tied to a time limit” helps to create an “opportunity for speeding up” peace talks. While Zelenskyy did not provide a direct response to this, in the past he has maintained that a “pause on the Ukrainian battlefield will not mean a pause in the war.” He also appreciated “Hungary's readiness to work effectively for the return of real long-term security.” 

Russia: Drone strikes allegedly hit oil depot in Tambov Oblast 
On 28 June, the governor of Tambov Oblast, Maxim Yegorov, announced that a drone attack allegedly hit an oil depot in the Michurinsky municipal district, causing a “small fire” to break out. This was then controlled with the help of 11 fire crews, and no casualties were reported. Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that Ukraine’s Security Service had struck more than 30 Russian oil refineries, terminals, and oil depots. 

Mexico: Officials discover bodies of 19 men in abandoned truck 
On 2 July, Mexican officials said they discovered at least 19 bodies in a truck in the southern state of Chiapas, in an incident that may have links to a violent turf war between drug and migrant trafficking gangs. According to the Ministry of Public Security, the male bodies had been found a day earlier in an abandoned truck, and authorities added that the victims, who were shot, included at least six men with Guatemalan identity documents. Earlier on 28 June, a preliminary investigation found that there had been a clash between Mexico’s powerful Sinaloa cartel and the Chiapas and Guatemala cartel, near the border with Guatemala. The ministry in its statement detailed that the clashes were over “criminal control of the border area.” 

Bolivia: Government recalls Argentine ambassador over Argentina’s claims of orchestrated coup
On 1 July, the Bolivian government summoned the Argentine ambassador to address the country’s claim that the attempted coup in Bolivia last week was a hoax. The attempted coup that occurred on 26 June has resulted in Bolivia’s President Luis Arce facing a wave of criticism both nationally and internationally, with people accusing him of engineering the coup to look like a hero. Arce’s political opponents have also issued similar accusations, which he has vehemently denied. Argentina’s President Javier Milei was the first head of state to make this accusation, asserting that Bolivia’s history of socialist governments is a threat to democracy. Referring to the alleged coup attempt, Milei’s office said that the “tale that was told was not very credible.” In response, Bolivia’s interim Foreign Minister, María Nela Prada, said that Milei’s “unfriendly and reckless” statement was “misinformed and biased,” and called on him to stay out of Bolivia’s internal affairs. Additionally, Bolivia’s Deputy Minister of Communication, Gabriela Alcón, stated: “We have always maintained a position of respect and we will demand the same respect.”

Haiti: UN report says violence displaced more than 300,000 children 
On 2 July, UNICEF said that more than 300,000 children in Haiti have been displaced as a result of the violence that has surged since February 2024. UNICEF’s Executive Director, Catherine Russell, stated: “The humanitarian catastrophe unfolding before our eyes is taking a devastating toll on children.” She highlighted that children who are displaced need “a safe and protective environment, and increased support and funding from the international community.” Most of these children are living in makeshift shelters such as schools, many of which are in poor hygienic conditions that increase the risk of disease. UNICEF also pointed out that multiple children in the country are forced to joint violent gangs due to a lack of access to essential goods and services. They additionally face a higher risk of sexual assault, exploitation, and family separation. 

The US: Hurricane Beryl hits Caribbean islands, bringing “catastrophic winds”
On 1 July, Hurricane Beryl made a landfall on the island of Carriacou in Grenada as a Category 4 storm. Later, as per the US’ National Hurricane Centre (NHC), Beryl intensified into a “potentially catastrophic” Category 5 storm, and headed towards Jamaica after damaging houses and causing flooding in other southeastern Caribbean islands. The NHC projected that “fluctuations in strength are likely… but Beryl is expected to still be near major hurricane intensity.” Islands such as Grenada and St Vincent experienced “catastrophic winds and life-threatening storm surge.” Grenada’s Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell reported one death, adding that the government would send people early on 2 July to evaluate the situation. A hurricane warning was issued in Jamaica, along with tropical storm warnings in parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.

The US: Roughly 309,000 Haitians to be covered under Temporary Protected Status programme 
On 28 June, the US Department of Homeland Security announced that the administration of US President Joe Biden would expand deportation relief and work permits to roughly 309,000 Haitians who are already in the country. In light of violence and security issues in Haiti that have posed an obstacle to safety and access to food, water, and healthcare, the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) programme will be extended to Haitians through February 2026. So far, around 264,000 Haitians in the US were covered by the programme. As part of this new move, TPS will be available to those Haitians who were in the US on or before 3 June, offering deportation relief and work permits. 

About the authors
Akriti Sharma and Rohini Reenum are PhD Scholars at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Dhriti Mukherjee, and Vetriselvi Baskaran are Research Assistants at NIAS. Ayan Datta, Ken B Varghese, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh and Mugdha Chaturvedi are Research Interns at NIAS.

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