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CWA # 1429, 2 August 2024
Conflict Weekly
Continuing Protests in Bangladesh, Israel-Hezbollah Tensions in the Middle East, Controversial Elections in Venezuela and Wildfires in North America

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #239, 2 August 2024, Vol.5, No.31
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Ayan Datta, Dhriti Mukherjee, Vetriselvi Baskaran and Akriti Sharma

Bangladesh: Three weeks of protests
Vetriselvi Baskaran
 
In the news
On 29 July, quota reform protestors staged new demonstrations demanding the release of six organisers under arrest. They demanded an "independent, acceptable and credible" investigation by the UN.

On 30 July, Bangladesh mourned for those killed during “the violence, sabotage, arson, looting and terror activities in the name of anti-quota movement.” On the same day, the ruling Awami League accused Jamaat-e-Islami of “instigating violence” in the country and proposed a resolution to ban the party with immediate effect. 

On 31 July, the Students Against Discrimination (SAD) announced a “March for Justice” to stress their nine-point demands and justice for the deceased people. The group announced protests in courts, educational institutions and on the streets. It stated: “We specially request teachers, lawyers, human rights activists, professionals, labourers and all citizens of the country to declare their solidarity with our demands and cooperation in carrying out our programme.” 
 
Issues at large
First, continuing protests with new demands. Started in mid-July, the protests in Bangladesh have entered into the third week. Initially, the protests were against government job quotas for descendants of freedom fighters during the 1971 War of Independence and other quota reforms. The protests continued despite the government’s promise to remove the quota system. Into the third week, the protestors are calling for the removal of several ministers for inflicting casualties. They are demanding a "public apology" from Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for calling the protestors "razakars," a derogatory term to refer to those who supported Pakistani military operation during the 1971 war. They also demanded to suspend the police personnel deployed at the protest locations. They additionally call for compensation to the families of those killed during the violence and a ban on the government-led student organisation, Chhatra League. 

Second, expansion and intensification of protests. What began at the universities has now extended nationwide. The minimal but persistent protests and occasional violence intensified with increased casualties. The violence led to the imposition of curfew, army patrols, and internet suspension. Initially, the students were protesting against the quota reform. However, currently, it includes civilian participation and extended demands. The involvement of opposition parties, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat-e-Islami party have intensified the anti-government protests.

Third, the government's response. Sheikh Hasina’s administration took harsh actions against those involved in the “mayhem centring the quota reform movement.” She urged the Ministry of Home Affairs not to look at “criminals” as “protestors.” She deployed the Rapid Support Force (RSF) and police to contain the protests. Police used tear gas, rubber bullets and stun grenades to disperse the protesters. According to Bangladesh media, Parthom Alo, the violence since 15 July has killed 266 people. The police and the RSF used live ammunition and arrested at least 253 students in 18 districts. The majority of those who died during the violence were students and youngsters.
 
In perspective
The student-led demonstrations have vowed to continue until the demands are met. On the other side, the government is unwilling to withdraw police forces and release detained protestors. The differences between the two sides are less likely to reach a compromise in the near future.

The Middle East: Rising Israel and Hezbollah tensions 
Ayan Datta 

In the news
On 27 July, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) stated that Hezbollah rockets struck a football field in Majdal Shams, a village inhabited by Israel’s Druze community in the Golan Heights. The attack killed 40 civilians, including ten children. Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack and claimed that an Israeli Iron Dome missile had hit the football field. 

On the same day, the IDF launched artillery shells into Hezbollah’s Shebaa village launch site. Additionally, The Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck Hezbollah bases in Lebanon’s Tyre, Bekaa Valley, and southern regions. Separately, the IDF stated that Israel’s Navy intercepted a Hezbollah drone heading towards Israel’s Karish gas fields.

On 28 July, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) stated it found debris from the Iranian-made Falaq-1 rocket in Majdal Shams and claimed that only Hezbollah uses the Falaq-1. The IDF released a map of the rocket’s flight path from Lebanon and added that it did not fire any Iron Dome missiles during the attack. Israel’s Minister of Defence, Yoav Gallant, stated: “We will ensure Hezbollah, the proxy of Iran, pays a price” for the attack. 

On 30 July, the IDF stated that it killed the Hezbollah “commander responsible for” the Majdal Shams attack, Mushin Shukr, in a targeted airstrike in Beirut. Gallant said: “We have shown that the blood of our people has a price and that there is no place out of reach for our forces to this end.” According to Lebanon’s Ministry of Health, the strike killed three people and injured 74.

On the same day, Israeli officials stated that “the ball was in Hezbollah’s court,” and subsequent Israeli attacks would depend on Hezbollah’s response. Separately, Hezbollah said that it was mobilising its precision-guided missiles but did not want a war with Israel.

Issues at large
First, a brief note on the Golan Heights, Israel and Hezbollah. When Israel was formed in 1948, the Golan Heights region belonged to Syria. However, Israel captured two-thirds of the Golan Heights during the Six-Day War of 1967, sent settlers into the region and annexed it in 1981. The region is home to around 40,000 people, including around 25,000 Jewish settlers and around 23,000 Druze Arabs, who follow an offshoot of Islam. The Golani Druze are concentrated in four villages, including Majdal Shams. Although the International community rejected Israel’s annexation, the US accepted Israel’s sovereignty over the Golan Heights because of the region’s strategic importance for Israel. However, Hezbollah considers Israeli control of the strategic Heights as an illegal occupation and cooperates with the Syrian government to return the region to the latter’s control. 

Second, large-scale displacement from border towns. The ongoing Israel-Hezbollah conflict displaced over 96,000 people from Israel’s northern border and over 95,000 from southern Lebanon. On the Lebanese side, most of those displaced are Shia Muslims who constitute the majority in the country’s bombarded southern regions. In northern Israel, most of the displaced people are Jewish civilians. According to the BBC and Al Jazeera, Israelis displaced from their homes expressed dissatisfaction with Netanyahu’s government for failing to prevent the attacks and create secure conditions for their return.

Third, the Iran-Hezbollah links. Hezbollah’s present arsenal of around 120,000 to 200,000 rockets is imported or co-developed with Iran. Iran also assisted the armed group in reverse-engineering Israeli equipment. According to the IDF, Iran ordered Hezbollah to attack Israel after 7 October. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Iran supplied rockets, precision-guided missiles, and drones to Hezbollah after the Hamas attack, missiles including Almas (range: eight kilometres) and Scud-C (range: 600 kilometres), Fateh-110 (range: 250-300 kilometres) which can reach beyond Israel’s border areas and strike Israel’s economic and population centres and nuclear facilities.

Fourth, Iran’s “Ring of Fire” strategy and Hezbollah. According to the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) and the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), Iran’s support for Hezbollah is part of its “Ring of Fire Strategy” implemented by the former Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander, Qassim Soleimani. Iran aims to encircle Israel with IRGC-backed armed groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, Houthis in Yemen, and Shia groups in Iraq and Syria. According to FDD, Iran aims to gradually weaken Israel through protracted wars on the latter’s borders and eventually destroy Israel. Furthermore, Iran aims to maintain pressure on Israel to secure its nuclear programme and roll back Israel’s influence in Syria and Iraq.   

In perspective
Hezbollah’s attack on the Golan Heights and the Israeli counterattack marks a continuation of the ongoing controlled escalation in the region. While Israel has assassinated multiple Hezbollah leaders, it has refrained from a ground invasion of Lebanon. Hezbollah has expanded the reach of its rockets but avoided targeting Israel’s critical economic and population centres. Both groups are likely to continue tit-for-tat attacks in the future but enjoy an unspoken consensus not to escalate. 

Venezuela: Violence follows after President Maduro gets re-elected for a third time 
Dhriti Mukherjee
 
In the news
On 29 July, Venezuela’s National Electoral Council (CNE) announced President Nicolás Maduro’s victory in the presidential elections. With 88 per cent of the votes counted by the CNE, Maduro secured 51 per cent while opposition candidate Edmundo González secured 44 per cent. The opposition dismissed the results and claimed that González won 70 per cent of the vote. They denounced the CNE as a supporter of Maduro. Subsequently, protests erupted across the country calling for electoral transparency. 

On 30 July, protestors marched in major cities after barred opposition leader Maria Corina Machado asked people to fight against “fraud by the regime.” The human rights group, Foro Penal, reported 11 deaths in the violent protests. The country’s Attorney General, Tarek William Saab, said that 749 protesters were arrested. 

The same day, Maduro responded that “an attempt is being made to impose a coup d’etat in Venezuela.” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken expressed “serious concerns that the result announced does not reflect the will” of the Venezuelan people. The Organisation of American States commented: “The events of election night confirm a coordinated strategy, unfolding over recent months, to undermine the integrity of the electoral process.”
 
Issues at large
First, a background to the elections. The elections were Maduro’s biggest threat to popularity as voters expressed their intention to end the 25-year rule of the United Socialist Party. Maduro warned of a “bloodbath” in case he lost. This is not the first time electoral transparency has been questioned. In 2018, several countries rejected the elections, where Maduro was re-elected. As per a poll, 26 per cent of voters were confident in the legitimacy of the 2023 elections, down from 59 per cent in 2012. There were fears of Maduro refusing to step down even if he lost, as he hinted at a “civil war” on 17 July.

Second, state suppression of the opposition. Opposition figures were suppressed during the election process. Machado was the coalition’s first choice; however, the government banned her and her first replacement, Corina Yoris, from running. In January 2024, the Supreme Court decided to ban Machado from holding public office for 15 years, alleging that she was planning to overthrow Maduro and had supported US sanctions against Venezuela. Dozens of opposition members were arrested in December and criminal investigations were opened against Machado’s supporters. Maduro controls the parliament and judiciary. The opposition claimed that the CNE acted on Maduro’s behalf.

Third, deteriorating socio-economic situation. After Maduro came to power in 2013, inflation surged to 130,000 per cent, oil prices plummeted, the US imposed economic sanctions, and there was a widespread shortage of essentials. In the 1990s, 3.6 million barrels of oil daily generated 95 per cent of export revenues; however, sanctions and mismanagement have left production below one million barrels per day. Although sanctions were temporarily lifted in 2023 after Maduro vowed to hold transparent elections, they were re-imposed after the ban on Machado in January. In 2022, the IMF described the situation as “the single largest economic collapse for a non-conflict country in half a century.” Wages remained low and food insecurity persisted, even after inflation cooled to 50 per cent. The economic situation resulted in more than 7.7 million Venezuelans leaving the country since 2014, predominantly to Colombia and the US. 

Fourth, stark divide in international responses. The US and UK called for swift and transparent publication of results. EU’s Foreign Policy Chief, Josep Borrell, asserted that the “will” of the Venezuelans “must be respected.” Brazil called for the “impartial verification” of results, Chile said it would “not recognise” unverified results, and Argentina claimed it would “not recognise another fraud.” On the other hand, Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed confidence that Maduro would “continue to contribute to their progressive development,” China expressed readiness to enrich the “all-weather strategic partnership,” and Cuba’s president said Maduro’s victory “cleanly and unequivocally defeated the pro-imperialist opposition.” Nicaragua, Bolivia, and Honduras also congratulated Maduro.
 
In perspective
First, the rise of the opposition. For many years, there were internal divides among opposition parties; however, this election saw them rallying together to defeat Maduro. Despite continuing obstacles, the opposition maintained its momentum, and the large voter turnout reflected public belief in the opposition coalition to bring a change in the country. 

Second, changing regional dynamics. After multiple Latin American countries criticised the elections, Venezuela announced the withdrawal of all diplomatic personnel from Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Peru, Panama, and Uruguay. This indicates the potential for a shift in the regional dynamics and could lead to Venezuela largely being isolated in the region.

Raging wildfires in North America
Akriti Sharma

In the news
On 26 July, according to the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre, 948 active wildfires were raging across Canada with 387 being considered out of control. In the Rockies, 25,000 people had to be mass evacuated to the nearest town of Jasper. In the US, Oregon has the largest active wildfire, where one million acres have been burnt.

On 25 July, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated: “We’re deploying [Canadian Armed Forces] resources, evacuations support, and more emergency wildfire resources to the province immediately — and we’re coordinating firefighting and airlift assistance. Alberta, we’re with you.” Firefighters from New Zealand, Australia, Mexico, and South Africa were deployed to douse the fires.

The wildfire smoke spread over North America degrading the air quality in Canada and parts of the US. As a result, air quality warnings were issued in Oregon, Colorado, Washington State, Idaho, and Wyoming. 

Issues at large
First, recurring extreme weather events in North America. Canada witnessed its worst wildfire season in 2023 with 38 million acres of burnt land across the country. The wildfires were prominent in 2022 as well. It has become an annual affair. With extreme dry conditions and above-average temperatures, wildfires have been recurring and intensifying in magnitude making them a part of compounded events (events of similar kind recurring for instance heatwaves, wildfires, and droughts leading to one another).

Second, the adverse impacts. The wildfires have caused severe air pollution leading to health impacts. Emissions of pollutants including carbon monoxide, black carbon, and particulates have resulted in high reporting of eye, lung, and nose irritations, and exacerbated lung and throat conditions. Vulnerable populations including children, women, and old adults have an increased risk of asthma and respiratory conditions. 

Third, the link to climate change. Wildfires can be caused by human-induced and natural-induced factors. The fires in Canada are caused by prolonged dry and hot conditions during the summers which can be linked to climate change. It is the cause and effect of such events, that wildfires lead to emissions causing climate change which in turn results in increased wildfires. It’s a vicious cycle. 

In perspective
First, effective management and response. Wildfires induce severe health impacts which can be harmful for the masses and cause cardiovascular diseases. This demands an early warning and an effective response. Wildfires spread fast and are difficult to douse. It requires a prompt response from the state and locals. With such events becoming an annual crisis, states will have to deploy resources and infrastructure to manage and adapt to such events. States like Canada and the US also need to increase their firefighters as they are inadequately available every fire season and international assistance is often required. 

Second, need to ramp up climate action. Mitigation of such events can only be carried out through ramping up climate action. Developed countries are inadequately undertaking climate action and have not met their climate finance commitments which are crucial for the developing and less developed countries to address impacts of climate change. 

NEWSMAKERS THIS WEEK
Ismail Haniyeh
Rohini Reenum

On 31 July, Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran, Iran. He was in Iran to attend the swearing-in ceremony of the newly elected President Masoud Pezeshkian. The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) confirmed the incident and blamed Israel for the targeted assassination. Describing the killing of Haniyeh as “a heinous crime committed by the Zionist regime,” the IRGC responded that the action “will undoubtedly be met with a harsh and painful response from the powerful Resistance Front.” Hamas has also blamed Israel for the assassination. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied these allegations. 

Who was Ismail Haniyeh?
Ismail Haniyeh was considered to be the “political leader” of Hamas. The IRGC referred to him as “the head of the political office of the Islamic Resistance of Hamas.” Born in a refugee camp in Gaza in 1962, Haniyeh joined the Islamic Student Bloc (a forerunner to Hamas) in 1983. He was arrested several times during the 1980s and served three sentences in Israel. He was exiled to southern Lebanon on his release and returned to Gaza in 1993 after the signing of the Oslo Accords. He emerged as a prominent leader of Hamas along with its co-founders during the Second Intifada. In 2006, Haniyeh was instrumental in Hamas’ victory in the parliamentary elections against the Fatah movement and became the Prime Minister of Palestine. In 2007, President Mahmoud Abbas dismissed him from his position and Haniyeh assumed the leadership of the “Hamas-only government in Gaza.” In 2018, he was designated a terrorist under the Trump administration. In 2019, Haniyeh quit as the chief of Hamas in Gaza. After leaving Gaza, he was engaged in diplomatic efforts for Hamas as its political chief. He visited Iran several times after Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack. He was a key figure in recent ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas.

Iran’s response
Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination in Iran has exacerbated fears that the ongoing Israel-Gaza conflict might turn into a regional conflict. The attack in the presence of heavy security on the occasion of the Iranian president’s inauguration ceremony would rattle the Iranian leaders and its security agencies. 

The IRGC and Iranian leaders have vowed retribution and a befitting response. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei stated: “The Zionist, criminal, and terrorist regime has murdered our esteemed guest on our own soil, causing immense sorrow and setting the stage for severe retaliation.” President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X: “The Islamic Republic of Iran will defend its territorial integrity, honour, pride and dignity, and make the terrorist invaders regret their cowardly action.”

Other responses
Hamas termed the assassination a “grave escalation.” Hezbollah expressed its solidarity with Hamas. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas termed the assassination “a cowardly act and a dangerous development.” The US clarified that it was not involved in the incident and was unaware of it. Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia, Mikhail Bogdanov called it “an unacceptable political murder.” Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs accused the Netanyahu government of not wanting peace. Egypt’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that this would increase “the complexity of the situation” in the Israel-Gaza conflict. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani called it a “political murder” and questioned how “how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on the other side?”

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan, Dhriti Mukherjee, Vetriselvi Baskaran, Ayan Datta, Samruddi Pathak, Sayeka Ghosh and Neha Tresa George

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Relations with Japan at crossroads amidst regional tensions, says Chinese Foreign Minister
On 26 July, Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi warned that China-Japan relations are at a “critical stage.” He commented during talks with his Japanese counterpart, Yoko Kamikawa, in Laos. Wang urged Japan to apprehend an “objective and correct” view of China, emphasising the need to safeguard the political foundations of their relationship. The meeting addressed several contentious issues, including Japan's semiconductor export restrictions and China’s ban on Japanese seafood imports following the Fukushima water release. Kamikawa expressed concerns about China’s military activities and human rights issues while reiterating the importance of Taiwan Strait stability.

China: Typhoon Gaemi kills 22 in China and North Korea
On 30 July, Typhoon Gaemi unleashed devastating floods and mudslides across China and North Korea, claiming at least 22 lives. 15 people were killed in China’s Hunan province in a landslide. Zixing city in Hunan faced unprecedented rainfall, recording 645 millimetres in a day. The deluge damaged nearly 1,000 homes and 1,300 roads, and 11,000 residents were evacuated. A dam breach in the province displaced around 4,000 people. China’s National Meteorological Centre issued an orange alert in multiple regions. The Ministry of Finance allocated RMB 238 million for disaster prevention and agricultural aid. The crisis extends beyond China’s borders causing the Yalu River to overflow and thereby causing floods in North Korea. Weather experts attributed the extreme weather to a combination of the southwest monsoon and Typhoon Gaemi's lingering effects.

North Korea: Kim Jong-un sacks public security minister over flood damages
On 30 July, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un sacked Minister of Public Security Ri Thae-sop for failing to control the flood damages. The first vice director of the Workers Party of Korea (WPK), Pang Tu sop, replaced Ri Thae-sop. According to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), heavy floods on the northern border near the Amnok River displaced 5000 residents. Additionally, around 4100 houses and 3,000 hectares of agricultural land were flooded by heavy rainfall in Sinuiju and Biju counties. The officials at the Politburo meeting agreed to build 4,400 houses and “strengthen embankments in Sinuiju and Uiju and restore damaged facilities in Jagang province.” 

Japan: Tokyo fastens missile development to bolster defence capabilities
On 28 July, SCMP reported on Japan fast-tracking its missile development program. The country is set to deploy an upgraded Type-12 surface-to-ship missile in 2024, a year ahead of schedule. Minister of Defence Minoru Kihara cited a “severe and complex security environment” as the impetus for this acceleration. The enhanced Type-12 missile, dubbed a “ship killer,” is reported to have a potential range of 900 kilometres extendable to 1,500 kilometres. It could strike near the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands and potentially northern Taiwan. Japan is additionally advancing its hypersonic weapons programme, with delivery expected by 2026. The country has ordered 400 US-made Tomahawk missiles, set to arrive in 2025. The developments mark a significant shift in Japan’s defence posture. It underscores Japan's commitment to “fundamentally reinforce its stand-off defence capabilities.”

Japan: US upgrades military command amid rising regional tensions
On 28 July, the US announced an overhaul of its military command in Japan to enhance defence cooperation. US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin described it as “the most significant change to US Forces Japan since its creation.” This move came as both countries expressed concerns about China’s growing influence and North Korea’s nuclear program. Japanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Yoko Kamikawa emphasized the need to “strengthen our alliance and enhance the deterrence.” The decision follows Russia’s commitment to strengthen military ties with North Korea. The US-Japan joint statement criticised China's foreign policy that it “seeks to reshape the international order for its benefit.” Austin clarified that the upgrade was not based on a specific threat from China, but a desire for closer alliance. Japan recently shifted its defence stance and announced plans to double its defence spending to two per cent of GDP. 

The Philippines: Navy conduct joint exercises with the US in the South China Sea
On 31 July, the Philippines and the US conducted joint military exercises in the South China Sea amidst growing tensions with China. It was carried out in Manila’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) to improve communication and operational coordination between the two navies. The Philippines’ military chief General Romeo Brawner stated: "These joint exercises with our ally are crucial in enhancing our naval capabilities and ensuring that we can effectively collaborate to safeguard our maritime interests.” The US and the Philippines started joint naval exercises in 2023 to enhance their military cooperation.

Myanmar: Junta extends the state of emergency
On 31 July, the Myanmar junta extended the state of emergency by six months, further delaying the promised elections. The junta failed to conduct elections due to a two-year state of emergency. The government unanimously decided to extend the period to carry out the census. Junta’s chief General Min Aung Hlaing said: “The extension was proposed in order to prepare valid and accurate ballots for the election the junta has promised to hold, possibly in 2025.”

South Asia
India: Landslides kill 277 in Kerala
On 30 July, landslides struck Wayanad district in India’s Kerala state following heavy rain. At least 277 people died and more than 200 were injured in the disaster. Mundakkai, Chooralmala, Attamala, and Noolpuzha villages are the most affected due to the landslides. Health Minister of Kerala Veena George uttered that thousands of the affected people were shifted to relief camps. She stated: “I visited the hospitals and camps. Our priority is to provide psychological support and focus on controlling contagious diseases.” At least 1,500 army personnel have been deployed for the rescue operation. 

Pakistan: 17 arrested in Bugti tribe shootout
On 26 July, 17 people were arrested following a shootout between two Bugti tribe groups in Karachi’s Defence Housing Authority. According to Deputy Inspector General (DIG) South, Syed Asad Raza, both groups used “heavy weapons.” The groups gathered for a meeting, however, the situation turned “sour” after “their vehicles came face to face and both groups opened fire.” 

Pakistan: Foreign Office regards Indian Prime Minister’s remarks as “belligerent”
On 26 July, the Foreign Office (FO) refuted the “belligerent remarks” made by India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi. On 25 July, Modi stated that Pakistan has “not learned anything from its history.” He addressed Pakistan as a patron of “terrorism,” adding that the Indian forces would “give a befitting reply” to its “unholy plans.” In response, the FO declared India’s “bravado and jingoism” as “totally counterproductive” in arriving at a resolution over the Kashmir dispute. The FO added that these “rhetorical statements cannot deflect international attention” from the disputed Jammu and Kashmir. It urged India to “reflect on its campaign” of carrying out “targeted assassinations, subversion and terrorism” in the land beyond the territory. It warned that Pakistan is determined to protect its sovereignty with a “robust response” to any “reckless” Indian “incursion.”

Pakistan: Three killed in clashes between BYC protestors and security forces 
On 28 July, the Baloch Yekjehti Committee (BYC) sit-in continued on the second day with protestors clashing with security personnel. At least two people died and many were injured during the clash at the Talar checkpost. Another clash in Marine Drive resulted in the death of one person. During the Baloch Rajee Muchi (Baloch National Gathering) in Gwadar’s Marine Drive, BYC leader Mahrang Baloch urged the protestors to not give up the struggle for the rights of the Baloch people and the protection of the province’s resources. The protesters have gathered political support from the Balochistan National Party (BNP-Mengal) and the National Party. Both condemned the use of security forces against the protestors. BNP leader Sajid Tareen announced joining the BYC protests. National Party blamed the Balochistan government led by Chief Minister Sarfraz Bugti for the political instability in the province. Meanwhile, Amnesty International urged the Pakistan authorities to lift the internet shutdown in the province and demanded the provincial government fulfil the demands.

Pakistan: 35 dead and 166 injured during tribal clashes in Kurram
On 29 July, Dawn reported that five-day clashes between Boshehra and Maleekhal tribes in Kurram, near the Afghanistan border, claimed 35 lives and injured 166 people. The fighting erupted on 24 July over a “land dispute.” On 28 July, the police and district administration informed that a ceasefire was brokered by a jirga from the Hangu and Orakzau districts. 

Pakistan: Five militants killed in three operations in KP
On 29 July, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) stated that a joint Intelligence-Based Operation (IBO) in the Mohmand district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) killed three militants. The security forces confiscated arms, ammunition and explosives. Separately, in an operation conducted in Dera Ismail Khan, a militant was killed and three were injured. Additionally, security forces killed one militant in North Waziristan. The ISPR asserted: “Pakistan’s security forces stand shoulder to shoulder with other law enforcement agencies to ensure peace and stability across Pakistan and such sacrifices of our brave men further strengthen our resolve.”

The Middle East and Africa
Iraq: Armed group to resume attack on US forces
On 30 July, the Jerusalem Post reported that the Iraqi armed group, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, stated that the truce with the US forces in Iraq has “ended.” The group’s spokesperson, Mahdi Kaabi, stated that “the resistance will re-target American positions at any moment. The impact of the outbreak of war in Lebanon will be great for Iraq. The Iraqi resistance coordinates with all fronts.”

Israel: IDF kills Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran 
On 31 July, Al Jazeera quoted Hamas stating that Israel assassinated the armed group’s political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, in his Tehran residence. The Hamas leader was in the Iranian capital to attend the sworn-in ceremony of Iran’s new President, Masoud Pezeshkian. According to the Times of Israel, Haniyeh was killed by an “airborne guided projectile.” Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khomenei, stated: “We consider it our duty to seek revenge for his blood” and promised to inflict “harsh punishment” against Israel. Pezeshkian stated: “The Islamic Republic of Iran will defend its territorial integrity and honour and would make the terrorist occupiers regret their cowardly action.” 

Sudan: HRW accuses RSF of committing sexual violence
On 30 July, Human Rights Watch accused the Sudanese paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of carrying out sexual violence, gang rape and child marriage. Deputy Africa director at Human Rights Watch, Laetitia Bader, stated: “The Rapid Support Forces have raped, gang raped, and forced into marriage countless women and girls in residential areas in Sudan’s capital.” The group accused the warring parties of blocking access to emergency care and humanitarian supplies in the war-torn regions.

The Democratic Republic of Congo: Angola mediates a truce between Rwanda and DRC
On 31 July, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo agreed on a ceasefire mediated by Angola. The ceasefire will begin on 4 August. The peace negotiation lasted for two weeks. DRC forces have been fighting M23 rebels in the eastern regions of the country since 2022. Rwanda has been allegedly supporting M23 rebels, a claim denied by the country. The conflict has killed thousands and displaced more than two million. 

Mali: Tuareg coalition claims victory near Algerian border 
On 28 July, Africanews reported that the Tuareg separatist coalition in Mali gained ground against the Malian army and Russian mercenaries after three days of intense fighting. The fighting happened in the Tinzaouatene region bordering Algeria. At least 50 Wagner Group fighters and seven rebels were killed in the fighting. 

Benin: Armed men attack kill seven soldiers
On 29 July, Africanews reported that at least seven Beninese soldiers and five rangers of an NGO were killed in an attack by armed men. Although no group has claimed the attack, the al-Qaeda-linked Jama'a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) group is active in the country.  

Europe and The Americas
Russia: Navy conducts military exercises
On 29 July, the Russian Navy kickstarted major combat training exercises in the Arctic and Pacific oceans and the Baltic and Caspian seas. According to the Russian Ministry of Defence, the exercise aims to check the navy’s actions at all levels and the readiness of the crew to perform tasks. The ministry added that 20,000 sailors, 300 surface and submarine vessels, and 50 aircraft would take part in the combat training. The drills are expected to include anti-aircraft missile firing, artillery firing at sea and air training targets, combat exercises for passive interference to withdraw forces from a simulated enemy strike and the use of anti-submarine weapons by surface ships and naval aviation. The Black Sea fleet will not take part in the drill due to considerable losses in the war in Ukraine. 

Russia: Ukrainian drone strike in Olenya airfield
On 28 July, Politico reported on a Ukrainian drone strike on Russia’s Olenya airfield. According to the report from a Ukrainian intelligence unit, the drones targeted the Tupolev Tu-22M3 supersonic long-range missile carrier at the “strategic aviation base.” The Olenya air base, located in the Arctic on the Kola Peninsula, is often used by Russian forces to target Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure using cruise missiles including Tu-95 MS bombers. 

Russia: US-made М270А1 MLRS system struck in Kherson 
On 29 July, RT reported that a US-made М270А1 MLRS system was struck by the Russian troops near the village of Novotroitskoye in Russia’s Kherson region, currently occupied by the Ukrainian troops. The system was identified to be similar to HIMARS, capable of firing both ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles and smaller high-precision projectiles. The Russian military estimated that 15 Ukrainian servicemen were killed, and M270A1 and one escort vehicle were destroyed. 

Guatemala: 207 Mexicans given temporary residence
On 29 July, Guatemala’s government provided 207 Mexicans, mostly children, a temporary residence on humanitarian grounds after they crossed the border to escape drug violence. As per the National Immigration Institute Director, Danilo Rivera, the migrants will have legal status for 30 days after which they require asylum status to stay in the country. Rivera added that the families were receiving support from domestic and international organisations. The previous week, around 600 Mexicans crossed the border into Guatemala following clashes between drug cartels. Catholic church leaders in South Mexico requested the government to protect these communities from the cartels.

The US: USD 500 million in military funding given to the Philippines
On 30 July, the US announced it would provide USD 500 million in military funding to the Philippines. On 31 July, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin visited Manila, officially launching an Asia Pacific tour to boost the US influence in the region and counter Beijing’s “strategic challenge.” During a press conference, Austin stated that the “once in a generation investment” was aimed at boosting “security collaborations” and helping modernise the Philippines’ armed forces and coastguard. Austin added that the funds demonstrate the US’ commitment to taking “bold steps” and building an “extraordinary foundation.” The Defence Secretary of the Philippines, Gilbert Teodoro, appreciated the “iron-clad commitment” by the US and acknowledged that the aid would provide a “tremendous boost” to Manila’s defence capabilities. 

About the authors
Rohini Reenum and Akriti Sharma are PhD Scholars at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Dhriti Mukherjee, and Vetriselvi Baskaran are Research Assistants at NIAS. Neha Tresa George, Samruddi Pathak and Sayeka Ghosh are Research Interns at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad.

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