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CWA # 1434, 9 August 2024
Conflict Weekly
Violence in Bangladesh, the UK, and Nigeria

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #240, 9 August 2024, Vol.5, No.32
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Ayan Datta, Samruddi Pathak and Vetriselvi Baskaran

Bangladesh: Sheikh Hasina flees, Mohammad Yunus returns
Ayan Datta
 
In the news
On 8 August, Mohammed Yunus, the Nobel Peace Prize recipient, was sworn in as the leader of Bangladesh's interim government. Following his oath-taking ceremony, he stated:  "Tomorrow, with the rising sun, democracy, justice, human rights, and full freedom of fearless expression will be enjoyed by all, regardless of party affiliation. That is our goal. I will uphold, support and protect the constitution and will perform my duties sincerely.”

On 7 August, the US and the UK refused political asylum to former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

On 6 August, Sahabuddin dissolved Bangladesh’s parliament and said he would free imprisoned student protesters. On the same day, a Dhaka court released over 1,000 members of the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami, including BNP head Khaleda Zia and the Jamaat’s Secretary General, Mia Golam Parwar. Separately, The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council (BHBCUC) stated that protesters vandalised 200-300 Hindu homes and 15-20 temples from 5 to 6 August, injuring 40 people. 

On the same day, India’s Minister of External Affairs Subrahmanyam Jaishankar expressed worry that “minorities, their businesses and temples also came under attack.” Additionally, the US Department of State expressed concern at violence against “religious or political groups” and “politics and law enforcement” and added that “the United States will continue to support Bangladesh's democratic aspirations and promote respect for human rights.”

On 5 August, Hasina resigned as Prime Minister and left the country following massive protests. On the same day, Hasina arrived at India’s Hindon airbase and met Jaishankar and India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval. Separately, protesters ransacked Ganabhaban and set fire to the residences and properties of multiple Awami League (AL) leaders, killing 25 people. 
 
Issues at large
First, the escalation from protests to vandalism and violence. Although Students Against Discrimination (SAD) began as a movement for quota reform, the protesters resorted to vandalism and violence after Hasina’s departure. Protesters vandalised AL offices, monuments, police stations and other public property. Furthermore, they targeted AL leaders, activists and minorities. While police and the military asked SAD leaders to call for peace, the latter said that the unrest was a spontaneous expression of people’s grievances against Hasina’s 15-year-long monopoly over the country’s political system.
 
Second, a political profile on Muhammad Yunus. In 2006, Yunus received the Nobel Peace Prize for founding Grameen Bank, which used micro-credit to alleviate Bangladesh’s rural poverty.  In 2007, the Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant General Moeen Ahmed, staged a coup. Later that year, Yunus stated that he wanted to launch a new political party called Nagorik Shakti (meaning “Citizen’s Power”), and the BBC reported that the army supported him as a counter against Hasina. However, in May 2007, Yunus abandoned his political aspirations after meeting the army-backed President, Fakhruddin Ahmed. According to Al Jazeera, his relations with Hasina, which had been warm until 2007, began worsening after he stated his political ambitions. After Hasina’s rise to power in 2009, the government filed multiple cases against Yunus, eventually leading to his removal from the Bank in 2013. In 2024, he was sentenced to six months in prison. Although the conviction was overturned, Yunus left the country. According to the New York Times and BBC, Hasina tried to suppress Yunus because of his political ambitions and support for him among the army and Western leaders.

Third, the worsening state of minorities in Bangladesh. After Hasina’s departure, protesters targeted minority (mostly Hindu) families, properties and places of worship, highlighting the atrocities against the minorities in the country. The Daily Star reported that opposition groups, like Jamaat-e-Islami, see the Hindus as close to the Hasina government and, therefore, carry out revenge attacks against them. In 1972, Hindus were around 14 per cent of Bangladesh’s population, numbering around nine million. By 2022, their share in population had fallen to eight per cent. According to the Dhaka Tribune, Hindus have steadily left Bangladesh since 1971 because of religious persecution.

Fourth, growing regional instability in South Asia. According to the US Fund for Peace’s Fragile States Index, South Asia has become an unstable region with multiple countries in crisis mode. This year, the Pakistan military grew its influence over the civilian government. Previously, in 2022, Sri Lanka suffered an economic crisis and mass protests. In 2021, the Taliban and Myanmar suffered regime changes.
 
In perspective
Hasina’s fall in a military coup marks a paradigm shift in Bangladeshi politics. Although Hasina has always positioned herself as the legatee of the country’s founder Sheikh Mujibur Rahaman, the youth and students are substantially Islamised and immune to her independence hero card. Hasina’s removal from power complicates India’s neighbourhood policy, with growing instability in South Asia and the role of the Jamaat-e-Islami in targeting minorities after Hasina’s departure. The military-backed interim government will face stiff challenges, including restoring law and order and reviving economic development. 

More on this:
Vetriselvi Baskaran, "Bangladesh: Three weeks of protests," NIAS Conflict Weekly, 2 August 2024

Ayan Datta, "Bangladesh: Protests and Violence over Quota reform," The World This Week, 21 July 2024

Violence in the UK: Protests and Counter Protests on Immigrants
Samruddi Pathak

In the news
On 7 August, several counter-protesters and protesters against the riots gathered in the cities of London, Brighton, and Bristol in support of refugees. The gatherings were peaceful. The violent anti-immigrant protests which began on 30 July turned into riots on 4 August.

On 7 August, Prime Minister Keir Starmer stated: “I guarantee you [rioters] will regret taking part in this disorder whether directly or those whipping up this action online, and then running away themselves. This is not protest. It is organized, violent thuggery.”

On 6 August, the number of arrests surpassed 400, as per Le Monde. The riots spread across the UK and Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged to use full force against the rioters. The government deployed over 6,000 riot police across 30 locations. Starmer called a meeting with cabinet ministers and gave a speech calling rioters “right-wing thuggers.”

Issues at large
First, background to the riots and counterprotests. The protests erupted when a teenager attacked three girls during a dance session in Southport. Later, false information was circulated that the attacker was an asylum-seeking Muslim teenager. The protests began in Southport turned into riots and expanded to the rest of the country in a week. Protests were also against the stagnant economy. The UK’s inflation touched nine per cent in 2022. The prices of utilities have been rising but quality of living has been the same for more than a decade. Besides, people were angry at the government for housing the immigrants using taxpayers’ money.  A week into the unrest, counter-protests began against the riots and the racial sentiments. 

Second, the involvement of the right wing. The far-right parties including the English Defence League and UK Reform Party have been at the forefront of the riots. The leaders of these parties have been allegedly instigating anti-immigrant sentiments and xenophobia among people. Besides, the members of right-wing pressure groups including the Patriotic Alternative and British Movement were active in the riots. 

Third, the disinformation campaign. Starmer blamed social media for propagating polarising content. False information incited violence and right-wing parties perpetuated it. A social media post that falsely claimed the attacker to be a Muslim refugee was widely circulated. This led to the widespread circulation of Islamophobic posts on social media. Meanwhile, there were no attempts to delete these posts or curb their circulation. This led to people protesting near mosques and sensitive areas.

Fourth, the government’s response. The government deployed police and provided them with riot gear. The government is adamant on curbing the riots and has made its position clear on anti-immigration sentiments. Municipalities announced community events for better assimilation of immigrants and solidarity against racism. The Prime Minister announced penalties on rioters for public property damage. 

In perspective
The riots are unlikely to reach a boiling point. Besides, people are divided on the issue of xenophobia. Protesters encountered counter-protesters in many cities. Therefore, far-right protests do not represent the sentiments of the entire country. The number of counter-protesters have outnumbered protesters reflecting the consensus of the country. 

The surveys by Ipsos and the European Social Survey have concluded that the majority of the British people perceive immigration positively. However, the riots have spread across the country. This reflects that the riots were deliberately instigated with political motives. However, the unrest does reflect a rise in extremism in British society.

Nigeria: Protests over cost-of-living crisis
Vetriselvi Baskaran
 
In the news
On 4 August, President Bola Tinubu told the Nigerian protestors that he had “heard” their voices and urged them to call off the protests, end the “bloodshed” and that he is always ready for a dialogue. 

On 2 August, Reuters reported that the Nigerian police were on red alert and sought assistance from the military as the protests against the cost-of-living crisis turned violent. It reported that at least three protestors were killed in northern Kaduna state on 1 August. However, Amnesty International claimed that at least 13 protestors were killed. 
 
Issues at large
First, a brief background to the protests. Protests in Nigeria began on 1 August against the increasing cost of living, state negligence and worsening insecurity. The protestors were largely middle-class population, youngsters, and the “Take It Back Movement.” They listed 19-point demands to reform the country’s electoral system, the judiciary, and Tinubu’s economic policies. The protests drew participation from major cities including the capital Abuja, Lagos, Maiduguri, Kano, Kaduna, Benin City, Ibadan, Jos, Port Harcourt, Yenagoa, Gusau, and Gombe. It attracted young people, dissatisfied with government policies on education. The National Bureau of Statistics recorded inflation at 34.19 per cent in July. The food inflation surged to 40.87 per cent in July from 40.66 per cent in June. Tinubu’s economic reforms resulted in currency depreciation which caused a hunger crisis, as the imported food products became expensive. The World Bank reports that about 40.7 per cent of Nigerians live below the poverty level. As of 2024, Nigeria's unemployment rate is around 4.1 per cent. Additionally, rising insecurity issues including ransom kidnappings, Boko Haram insurgency and the farmer-herder clashes are adding woes. 

Second, the government’s response to the protest. The government used teargas and live ammunition against the protesters. They implemented curfews and blocked several roads to contain the protests. Amnesty International reported that 13 protestors were killed. However, the police denied responsibility. At least 326 protestors have been arrested on the charges of arson and looting. President Tinubu defended his economic reforms that it reflected in the reduction of foreign debt from 97 per cent to 68 per cent in 2024. 

Third, rising protests in Africa and its regional implications. 2024 saw protests in several African countries including Kenya, Uganda, Ghana, Zimbabwe and Mozambique. All revolved around widespread dissatisfaction with the government's performance, corruption, and negligence on social welfare. Successful Kenyan protests in July inspired people across Africa. On 22 July, the younger population staged anti-corruption protests in Uganda. In Ghana, civil society groups and youngsters protested against the increasing cost of living. In Mozambique, the opposition Democratic Alliance Coalition called for nationwide protests on 7 August against the party’s exclusion from the upcoming general election.
 
In perspective
First, protests are likely to continue. Tinubu remains defensive on his economic reforms. Unless Tinubu’s administration agrees to address the demands of the protesters, the protests are likely to continue. On the other hand, police crackdowns and the killing of protesters would intensify the protests and draw larger crowds. The successful protests in Kenya would serve as inspiration for protestors to press the government until their demands are met. 

Second, increasing violence and the government’s response to the protests. Earlier protests that occurred in Nigeria have been met with violent responses from police and security forces, causing injuries and fatalities. Likewise, the current protests in Nigeria are drawn parallel to #EndSARS protests which broke out against the police crackdowns as they continue to loom over current demonstrations. 

Third, protests are emerging as a way to address social issues. Africa is renowned for multiple protests. In recent days, protests in many countries succeeded. For instance, in Kenya, anti-government protests were accomplished by forcing the government to revoke the planned tax bills. Similarly, in June, Nigeria’s labour force protested against the minimum wage which resulted in negotiations with governments to further increase the minimum wage. This spillover impact caused the Nigerians to take the streets once again against the “bad governance.” This highlights the African perspective of choosing protests as a way to solve the issues. 

NEWSMAKER THIS WEEK
Mohammed Yunus
Vetriselvi Baskaran

On 8 August, Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus took oath as the head of Bangladesh’s interim government with the support of the military. During his sworn-in ceremony, Yunus said: “I will uphold, support and protect the constitution and will perform my duties sincerely.” This development came after former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina resigned and left the country. He will be heading the government until the next election. 

Who is Mohammed Yunus? 
Mohammed Yunus is an economist and civil society leader. He used to teach in the economics department at Chittagong University. He was awarded the Ramon Magsaysay Award for Community Leadership in 1984. Later, he established a Grameen Bank in 1983 to provide loans to poor communities and women. This secured him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2006. He worked for several international advisory groups and commissions including the International Advisory Group for the Fourth World Conference on Women and the Global Commission on Women's Health. He wrote his autobiography “Banker to the Poor: Microlending and the Battle Against World Poverty” in 1991. 

Yunus had a bitter relationship with Sheikh Hasina’s government for multiple reasons. Since 2008, the government carried out several investigations against Yunus. He was charged under more than 100 cases including labour law violation in January 2024 and embezzlement of BDT 252.2 million from the Grameen Telecom fund in June 2024. He was sentenced to six months in jail in January. He received international media attention and political support for Hasina’s “judicial harassment.” 

How did he become the interim leader? 
In 2007, Yunus announced his interest in establishing a political party. But, he dropped the idea due to several legal and political challenges. 

The protests in Bangladesh that began in July as a demonstration against quota reforms evolved into anti-government protests. On 5 August, Sheikh Hasina resigned and left Bangladesh, as a result of the increasing violence between the protestors and security forces. The student protestors nominated Yunus as he was a critic of Hasina’s administration and was popular for his efforts in lifting poverty and unemployment. 

Global Protests Tracker #1
Kenya, Uganda and Venezuela
Anu Maria Joseph

More than six protest movements received international media attention recently. While the UK, Bangladesh, and Nigeria were at their peak points this week, protests in Kenya, Uganda, and Venezuela appear to have varied trajectories.

Kenya: The continuing protests
In Kenya, the Gen-Z protests which began on 20 June against the controversial financial bill took multiple turns in the later weeks. Months-long anti-tax protests are currently anti-government protests, calling for Ruto's withdrawal. The protests are continuing, but, the intensity has come down. On 8 August, the new cabinet was sworn in, which included representation from opposition parties. President William Ruto stated the new cabinet "cannot and must not fail Kenyans." However, the protesters are angry and reject the new cabinet, claiming it is a deal-making between the political elites. On 8 August, police fired tear gas against a small group of protesters in the capital Nairobi. Businesses are closed, roads are blocked, and public transport has been disrupted amidst the threat of violence. 

Uganda: Inspired by Kenyan protests
The Ugandan protests were said to be partially inspired by the Kenyan protests. The protests were against rampant corruption. On 24 July, around 60 protesters were arrested. There was widespread crackdown on the opposition ahead of the protests. Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni warned that the protesters are "playing with fire." However, besides the initial round of protests, there were no developments after. The protests seem to have died.

Venezuela: Against Maduro's controversial election victory
In Venezuela, on 3 August, opposition leader Maria Corina Machado joined her supporters in the protests against the alleged irregular elections and the National Electoral Council's (CNE) announcement of Maduro's victory with 96.9 per cent of the votes counted. Later, on 5 August, opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia and Machado announced their election victory against incumbent president Nicolas Maduro. While Urrutia and Machado are facing criminal charges for the election victory claims, protests seem to have calmed down.

Our previous coverage of the issues:
Anu Maria Joseph, "Protests in Kenya: Into the fifth week," NIAS Conflict Weekly, 26 July 2024 

Anu Maria Joseph, "Kenya: Crisis continues, as the protests expand despite President's interventions," NIAS Conflict Weekly, 12 July 2024

Anu Maria Joseph, "Kenya: Protests force the government to withdraw the financial bill," NIAS Conflict Weekly, 28 June 2024

Dhriti Mukherjee, "Venezuela: Violence follows after President Maduro gets re-elected for a third time," NIAS Conflict Weekly, 2 August 2024

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan, Dhriti Mukherjee, Vetriselvi Baskaran, Ayan Datta, Samruddi Pathak, Sayeka Ghosh and Neha Tresa George

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: US sues TikTok and ByteDance for violating Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act
On 2 August, the US Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission took legal action against TikTok and its parent company ByteDance. The department accused them of failing to protect children’s privacy. It stated that TikTok, which has over 170 million US users, violated the law by collecting and disclosing personal data and information of minors without parental permission. The department accused TikTok of allowing children to create accounts and refusing to delete requests by the parents. In 2019, the government sued Musically, a popular social media platform, for violating the Children’s Online Privacy Protection Act (COPPA). US Associate Attorney General, Benjamin C Mizer, said: “The department is deeply concerned that TikTok has continued to collect and retain children’s personal information despite a court order barring such conduct.”

China: Joint counterterrorism drill with Africa
On 4 August, the South China Morning Post reported that China, Tanzania, and Mozambique commenced a trilateral counterterrorism exercise “Peace Unity-2024.” This marked Beijing’s renewed focus on military diplomacy in Africa. The drill, scheduled until mid-August, involves ground units from the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), Central Theatre Command and a naval flotilla from the Southern Theatre Command. The exercise encompasses a range of operations including anti-piracy patrols, boarding and seizure techniques, and joint maritime patrols. A China specialist at the National Defence University’s Africa Centre for Strategic Studies in Washington, Paul Nantulya, describes this as a “blended approach” combining military, diplomatic, and cultural engagement. The drill serves multiple purposes for China, including strengthening political ties, showcasing military assets, and testing new equipment. For African countries, it offers professional training and alternative defence partnerships.

Taiwan: Chinese drones encircling the island, says defence ministry 
On 3 August, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence reported on drone operations by China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Two Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) circled the island for nearly nine hours and came as close as 43 nautical miles to Taiwan’s southernmost point. It coincided with Japan and the Philippines' first joint military exercise in the South China Sea which began on 2 August. The ministry detected 36 PLA aircraft and 12 vessels in 24 hours, with 31 aircraft crossing the median line of the Taiwan Strait. Military commentator, Song Zhongping, speculated that the drones were likely conducting reconnaissance, gathering intelligence on the Japan-the Philippines exercise.

North Korea: US calls on Pyongyang to stop proactive and unproductive missile development
On 5 August, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), North Korean state media, announced that Pyongyang would deploy 250 ballistic missile launchers to frontline military units. The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) of South Korea, Colonel Lee Sung-jun, stated that the missile launchers appear to be a serious threat to the country. On 6 August, the Yonhap News Agency reported on the US’ call on North Korea to halt the provocative and unproductive positioning of 250 new tactical missile launchers along the frontline. The US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said: “We would encourage North Korea to discontinue taking provocative and unproductive steps and return to the negotiating table.” Miller added: “Whatever differences we have with any government, those are not differences with the people of that country. So we would hope to see the humanitarian needs of the North Korean people addressed.” 

The Philippines: China conducts patrols in the Scarborough Shoal
On 7 August, China tried its “strike capabilities” near the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theatre Command stated: “We organised a joint combat patrol in the sea and air space.” They tested "the reconnaissance and early warning, rapid mobility, and joint strike capabilities of theater troops.” Armed Forces of the Philippines public affairs office chief Colonel Xerxes Trinidad stated: "Initial reports from the ground indicate no trace of Chinese military activity in the area of Bajo de Masinloc (BDM) as of August 7, 2024. Aside from the usual illegal encroachment and presence of Chinese maritime militia vessels, we have not monitored any purported exercise or combat patrols.”

South Asia
Pakistan: Militant attack on judges in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
On 2 August, two policemen were killed in a militant attack targeting three judges in a convoy travelling from Tank district to Dera Ismail Khan. The three judges were the acting district and sessions judge of Tank, the acting district and sessions judge of South Waziristan, and the senior civil judge of South Waziristan. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Governor Faisal Karim Kundi and Chief Minister Sardar Ali Amin Khan Gandapur condemned the attack. Separately, an attack by an unidentified assailant in Lakki Marwat killed a traffic constable. 

Pakistan: BYC protests resume in Balochistan 
On 3 August, The News International reported that roads in Balochistan continued to be blocked despite an agreement between the local administration and the Balochistan Yakjheti Committee (BYC) representative, Mahrang Baloch. On 1 August, they had reached a consensus to discontinue the sit-in. The government agreed to remove road blockades and release the arrested, once the protestors dispersed peacefully. However, the protests continued in Gwadar, Mastung and several other locations. A fresh sit-in started demanding the “recovery of missing persons.” At least 14 people were injured and an army soldier was killed. Federal Law Minister Azam Naseer Tarar proposed compensation of PKR five million to families of “missing persons.”

Pakistan: JI chief threatens government with an ouster movement
On 5 August, The Express Tribune reported that Jamaat-i-Islami (JI) Chief Hafiz Naeem-ur-Rehman urged Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to reduce the electricity prices lest “the situation spirals out of control.” He called on the ruling regime to recognise the demands of the JI as “legitimate rights” of the people. He warned that if the matter is left unattended, protests will be arranged at the governor houses in Lahore, Peshawar, and Quetta. Rehman asserted that if decisions are taken based on Form 45, the coalition government will have to step down. Hence, “to avoid the wrath of the people, the Prime Minister should accept our demands, or this movement will turn into a government ouster movement.”

Pakistan: National Assembly passes resolution on Kashmir against India’s policies
On 6 August, the National Assembly unanimously agreed upon a resolution against India’s one-sided invalidation of Kashmir’s special status. However, Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) Chief, Mehmood Khan Achakzai, rejected the bill arguing that Pakistan has always supported freedom movements and that the Kashmiris must be asked what they want. The Youm-i[1]Istehsaal-i-Kashmir Day Resolution was proposed by the Safron and Kashmir Affairs Minister Amir Muqam. The resolution demands India to extend humanitarian aid, release Kashmiri politicians in prison, end human rights violations and “implement the relevant resolutions of the United Nations Security Council.”

India: Human rights forum urges for election announcement in Jammu and Kashmir
On 5 August, the Forum for Human Rights in Jammu and Kashmir, an independent body, called for an immediate announcement of the legislative assembly election date in J&K. Its report, titled “A Human Rights Agenda for an Elected Administration,” noted that the announcement delay causes speculation of postponement on the grounds of increasing militant attacks. It added: “Analysts point out that delay would be counterproductive. It will increase alienation and might play into the hands of spoilers.” It noted that the new administrative rules, issued on 12 July, suggested pre-emptive actions to limit the elected administration’s governance capacity, leading to a standoff between the elected and nominated administration.

The Middle East and Africa
Israel: IDF orders evacuation in Beit Hannon and Khan Younis, continues operations in Gaza and the West Bank, returns 84 Palestinian bodies
On 8 August, Al Jazeera reported that the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) ordered residents to evacuate Gaza City’s Beit Hanoon town, warning that Israeli forces would begin operations shortly. On 7 August, the IDF continued operations in Khan Younis, killing around 11 Palestinians. On 6 August, the Israeli military carried out drone strikes in the West Bank’s Jenin and Gaza’s Deir el-Balah cities, killing around 15 civilians. On 5 August, the IDF killed multiple Palestinians in a targeted air strike in Gaza and raided the West Bank’s Aqaba city, killing four and wounding seven. Additionally, it transferred the bodies of 84 Palestinians to Hamas. On 4 August, the IDF targeted two schools in Gaza City, killing 30 people. On the same day, it issued evacuation orders in southern and southeastern Khan Younis, stating that it would conduct a ground invasion of the area. On 3 August, the IDF carried out raids and airstrikes in the West Bank’s Tulkarem, killing Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) local commanders and troops. On 2 August, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) carried out airstrikes in Gaza City, killing five people, including three children. 

Israel: IDF and Hezbollah continue strikes
On 6 August, Al Jazeera reported that the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) carried out an airstrike in Lebanon’s Mayfadoun town, killing five Hezbollah members. In response, Hezbollah fired a “swarm of drones” towards IDF barracks in northern Israel. On 5 August, The Guardian reported that Hezbollah fired drones into north Israel as a response to Israel’s assassination of the armed group’s commander, Fuad Shukr. The IDF said that the attack wounded four soldiers and caused a fire in upper Gailee’s Ayelet HaShahar Kibbutz. On the same day, an Israeli strike killed two people in southern Lebanon’s Mais Al-Jabal region.

Yemen: US forces defend against Houthi attacks
On 6 August, US Central Command (CENTCOM) stated that it “destroyed one Iranian-backed Houthi uncrewed aerial vehicle and two Iranian-backed Houthi anti-ship ballistic missiles launched from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.” On 5 August, CENTCOM destroyed multiple Houthi munitions in the Red Sea region, including four drones, one uncrewed surface vessel (USV), a drone, and one anti-ship ballistic missile. On 3 August, the US forces destroyed a “Houthi missile and launcher” in Yemen.

Tunisia: Opposition parties accuse the president of arbitrary restrictions
On 2 August, opposition parties and presidential candidates protested against Tunisia’s President Kais Saied's restrictions and intimidation. The elections are due on 6 October 2024. On 19 July, Saied announced his decision to run for the presidential position for another term. He said that he would not hand over power to “non-patriots.” In 2021, Saied dissolved the parliament to rule the country by decree which the opposition described as a coup. 11 opposition candidates, planning to run against Saied, jointly stated: "The violations have affected most of the serious candidates to the point that they appear to indicate a desire to exclude them (from the election) and restrict them in order to make way for a specific candidate.” On 1 August, 17 non-governmental organisations (NGOs) and six other opposition parties stated: "A climate of intimidation of opponents and journalists through the use of the judiciary and the Election Commission to serve the interests of the authorities and the lack of equal opportunities does not provide guarantees for free and fair elections.” 

Somalia: Attack near Lido beach 
On 3 August, at least 32 people were killed and 60 were injured in an armed attack near the Lido beach in Mogadishu. Al-Shabab has claimed responsibility for the attack. Prime Minister Hassan Ali Khaire stated: “The fact that the terrorist attack coincides with this night when the beach is the most congested shows the hostility of the terrorists to the Somali people.” The country has been fighting al-Shabab with the support of the US, the AU and other local armed groups for years. On 5 August, Somali police confiscated hundreds of women’s veils, known as niqab, after receiving information that terrorists might be hiding to carry out attacks. Somalia imposed a niqab ban in 2013 but seldom followed.

Mali: Cuts diplomatic ties with Ukraine
On 5 August, Mali cut off its diplomatic ties with Ukraine after it suffered a defeat fighting Tuareg rebels in July. The fight resulted in the death of 84 Wagner troops and 47 Malian soldiers. The development came after on 29 July the spokesperson for Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (GUR), Andriy Yusov, said that the rebels received “all the information they needed, which allowed [them] to carry out their operation against the Russian war criminals.” Malian military officials responded that Yusov had “admitted Ukraine’s involvement in a cowardly, treacherous and barbaric attack by armed terrorist groups that resulted in the death of members of the Malian Defence and Security Forces.” Soon after, it broke off relations with Ukraine. 

Europe and The Americas
Cyprus: Joint air force exercise with the US
On 6 August, Cyprus’ Ministry of Defence announced joint exercises with the US from 6 to 8 August. The exercise is between the air forces and the armies of both countries. The ministry stated: “Within the framework of military cooperation between the Republic of Cyprus and the US, training activities will take place in the morning and afternoon from August 6-9 in the Nicosia flight information region. The activities will include aerial defense operations with low-flying aircraft.” Previously, the Ministry of Transport of Israel stated that Israel might ask Cyprus for naval assistance if the conflict escalated. Meanwhile, Hezbollah threatened Cyprus and said that it would consider the country “a part of the war.” 

Russia: Security Council Secretary in Iran
On 5 August, the Russian Federation’s Security Council Secretary, Sergei Shougu, arrived in Iran to visit the General Staff of the Islamic Republic of Iran Armed Forces, Mohammad Bagheri, to discuss Russia-Iran security cooperation. The visit comes amidst Israel, Hezbollah and Iran are on the verge of a full-scale war. The missiles and drones used by Iran to attack Israel were Russian-made. Both countries consider each other as a strategic ally. 

Spain: Catalan separatist leader evades arrest
On 7 August, Carles Puigdemont announced his return to Barcelona after seven years in exile. The leader was likely to be arrested on his arrival in Barcelona. Catalonia police said that they would follow the court order and arrest him on his arrival. Puigdemont was actively involved in the succession bid in 2017, demanding Catalan independence from Spain. The Supreme Court of Spain ruled the independence referendum as illegal. The Spanish coalition government relies on the Junts party to pass several legislations. The government cancelled legal proceedings against him, yet the Supreme Court order of his arrest remains. On 8 August, during his speech near the Catalan parliament, he criticised the judges for the arrest order. On the Catalan Independence movement, he said: “We have been persecuted for years, and we are subjected to repression that has affected thousands of people for being pro-independence.” He added: “A country where amnesty does not grant amnesty has a problem with democratic normality.”

Russia: Forces claim to have halted Ukraine's advance in the Kursk Oblast
On 7 August, according to a BBC report, Ukraine’s biggest battlefield problem was manpower while Russia comparatively has and is closer to Pokrovsk, an eastern Ukrainian town. Therefore, sending many soldiers to the border can be counterintuitive. One of the military analysts, Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov, agrees that the attack should not be “accidental” but part of a “plan.” He said: “If you look at official reports, there were significantly fewer Russian glide bombs dropped in the Donetsk area… That means the aircraft which carry them are now elsewhere in Russia.” The attack on Kursk is seen as a suppressive move against the Russian offensive in north-eastern Kharkiv and northern Sumy. However, this will be the first time Ukrainian forces breached the border but Russia was observed to be quick in responding through the state of emergency, swift evacuation and redeployment of troops in Sudza, a town in Kursk. On 8 August, Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy in his evening address said: “Russia brought the war to our land and should feel what it has done.” He reiterated Ukraine’s stance for “just peace” and added: “We want to achieve our goals as soon as possible in peace time.” On the cross-border incursion, Ukraine’s Energy Minister, German Galushchenko, assured Russia’s gas transit station to be still operational in the town of Sudzha where the intense fighting is taking place. However, reports from Russian “military bloggers” claim that Ukraine captured the gas measuring station which is ten kilometres from the Ukrainian border.

Venezuela: Probe against Gonzalez and Machado over election victory claims
On 6 August, a criminal investigation was launched against opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia and Vente Venezuela party leader Maria Corina Machado for announcing their election victory against President Nicolas Maduro. Attorney General Tarek William Saab stated that Urrutia and Machado “falsely announced a winner of the presidential election other than the one proclaimed by the National Electoral Council, the only body qualified to do so” and they openly incited “police and military officials to disobey the laws." The National Electoral Council (CNE) declared Maduro's victory with 96.9 per cent of the votes counted. The results sparked violent protests across the country against election irregularities. 

The US: Hurricane Debby hits Florida
On 5 August, hurricane Debby reached the Big Bend region of Florida as a Category 1 storm. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned that Debby would cause six to 12 inches of rain in Florida and 20 to 30 inches in Georgia and South Carolina in the coming week. Mandatory evacuations have been ordered in parts of Florida. Climate scientists have claimed that man-made global warming due to fossil fuel burning has raised the ocean temperatures to cause devastating storms.

The US: To deploy additional resources in the Middle East
On 2 August, the Pentagon announced the deployment of additional resources in the Middle East, including aircraft carriers, fighter jet squadrons, navy cruisers and destroyers. The development comes as tensions escalate between Israel and Iran. Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh stated: "The secretary will be directing multiple, forthcoming force-posture moves to bolster force protection for U.S. forces region-wide, to provide elevated support to the defense of Israel and to ensure the United States is prepared to respond to this evolving crisis.” Singh reiterated US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin's conversation with his Israeli counterpart Yoav Gallant: “We will stand with Israel in their self-defence, and that is something that the secretary reiterated to Minister Gallant on his call this morning.”

About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Vetriselvi Baskaran, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Samruddi Pathak is a Research Intern at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad.

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