Conflict Weekly

CWA # 1465
Conflict Weekly
Telegram Founder’s Arrest, Attack in Burkina Faso, Canada’s Ban on Chinese EVs and Wildfires in Greece and Canada

IPRI Team
29 August 2024
Photo Source: AP Photo

Conflict Weekly #243, 29 August 2024, Vol.5, No.35
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Advik S Mohan, Anu Maria Joseph, R Sachin Arvind and Akriti Sharma

Telegram founder’s arrest and the debate on free speech
Advik S Mohan

In the news
On 24 August, the founder and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Telegram, Pavel Durov, was arrested at Le Bourget airport in Paris. Head of the Paris Public Prosecutor’s Office Laure Beccuau stated that the arrest of Durov was part of a probe into alleged criminal activities conducted through Telegram, alongside a lack of cooperation with authorities. 

On 25 August, France’s President Emmanuel Macron stated that the arrest of Durov was part of an ongoing judicial investigation and not a political decision.

On the same day, Telegram responded to the arrest that Durov had “nothing to hide.” The app added: “It is absurd to claim that a platform or its owner are responsible for abuse of that platform.” It added that it abides by digital laws and moderation guidelines of the EU.

Issues at large
First, the case against Telegram. French prosecutors alleged that the app failed to regulate and been complicit in criminal activities. 12 offences were listed including child sexual abuse, drug trafficking, illicit transactions and fraud. It was additionally accused of failing to cooperate and provide information to law enforcement authorities. Secretary-General of OFMIN Jean-Michel Bernigaud stated that Durov was arrested for Telgram’s failure to moderate its platform and cooperate in the fight against crimes against children. Telegram allowed end-to-end encrypted group chats with up to 200,000 people. Besides, the app’s negligent content moderation allowed the rampant spread of misinformation. 

Second, the debate over free speech and government control. Tech billionaire and owner of social media platform X, Elon Musk, defended Durov by sharing the hashtag #FreePavel. Musk describes himself as a free speech absolutist, limiting content moderation on X. The absolute free speech supporters including Musk claim that the government has no right to regulate the opinions of individuals. In 2015, Durov commented that privacy was more important than issues like terrorism. Meanwhile, the EU tried to investigate and regulate tech companies for violating rules for allowing the spread of hateful content promoting racism, sexism and conspiracy theories. The EU passed the Digital Services Act to counter illegal content and online harassment on social media. It aimed at holding platforms accountable for spreading content targeting race and gender, children, and cyberbullying, with the consequences of fines and an EU-wide ban. Similarly, Australia passed the Sharing of Abhorrent Violent Material Act which provisioned criminal penalties for tech companies, jail sentences of up to three years for tech executives and financial penalties worth up to ten per cent takeover of a company’s shares if found guilty of hateful content spread.

Third, increasing social media abuse. Telegram was accused of allowing pornographic material targeting children. In 2022, it was found that explicit images of thousands of women were shared through Telegram without consent. Similarly, pornographic material involving children spread across the app. On 26 July, Telegram banned 2,193 groups and channels related to child abuse. The lack of regulations on Telegram caused fake news on the Ukraine war and the UK riots. X also faces similar allegations. In 2023, X removed the feature allowing users to report misinformation. The platform has been accused of allowing antisemitic and white nationalist messages. In 2022, human rights groups accused the Myanmar military, Tatmadaw, of using Facebook to incite hatred against the Rohingya community.

In perspective
The arrest of Pavel Durov marks a turning point, with governments taking more action to regulate content on social media. Recently, the platforms have come under greater scrutiny for their role in allegedly promoting violence and hatred in society. The arrest asserts that while free speech deserves to be protected, it does not mandate damaging the rights of others. It also reminds that social media content has a real-world impact and requires regulation. Nevertheless, the governments should be even-handed in their approach, and not be excessively regulatory. However, the fine line between how far the government can regulate social media without infringing upon free speech will be a forever debate. 

Burkina Faso: JNIM expands toward Ouagadougou
Anu Maria Joseph

In the news
On 24 August, Africanews reported that an attack by Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), an armed group linked to al-Qaeda, killed nearly 100 people and injured 140 others in central Burkina Faso. The attack took place in the Barsalogho region. 

On 25 August, al-Qaeda claimed the attack stating that it gained "total control over a militia position" in Barsalogho in Kaya, a region where security forces have been fighting jihadists to protect the capital Ouagadougou.

On the same day, Burkina Faso's Minister of Security Mahamadou Sana said that the government responded to the attack with ground and air support. He added: “We are not going to accept such barbarity on the territory.”
 
Issues at large
First, a profile of JNIM. JNIM was formed in 2017. Composed of four armed groups, Ansar Dine, al-Murabitun, the Macina Liberation Front and the Sahara Emirate subgroup of al-Qaeda in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb, JNIM aimed to establish an Islamic caliphate in the Sahel. It started its operations in Mali and later spread to Burkina Faso, Niger, and parts of Ghana, Ivory Coast, Benin and Togo. Abu al-Fadl, a Malian Tuareg rebel leader and the founder of Ansar Dine, is said to be the group's leader. The number of fighters is unclear. The group spread across northern Burkina Faso by exploiting social divisions in the regions under its control. It strengthened by acting as a government in these regions, addressing the local grievances, and appealing to several marginalised communities including the Tuareg and Fulani. They recruited fighters from these communities. The group funds their activities through ransom kidnappings, weapon smuggling, tax collection, and drug and human trafficking.

Second, increasing JNIM’s footholds and worsening insecurity in Burkina Faso. According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), JNIM has been increasingly carrying out frequent attacks in Burkina Faso since 2017 and half of the country is under the control of the group. The group was responsible for more than half of the attacks, reportedly around 1,762. Its capacity has increased with the use of bombs, mortars, landmines and rockets. In February, it attacked a church and a mosque in Natioboani and Essakane villages, killing dozens. In the same month, Kamsilga, Soroe and Nodin villages were attacked, killing more than 170 people. Besides JNIM, groups linked to the Islamic State, including the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara and Islamic State's West Africa Province (ISWAP) are active in the country. According to the Global Terrorism Index 2023, Burkina Faso ranks at the top. The report says nearly 2,000 people were killed in 258 "terrorist attacks."

Third, insurgency beyond Burkina Faso. Ungoverned peripheries and porous borders of Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali are the epicentre of all insurgent groups. Since the military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, insurgency in the countries has doubled. Three countries rank top in the GTI 2023. Since August 2023, the Tuareg rebels are reportedly reemerging in Mali and Niger. On 26 August, 21 people were killed in Mali's Tinzaouaten region. The Tuareg coalition has claimed the attack. In July, the separatists killed 47 Malian soldiers and 84 Russian Wagner troops. Besides, the groups linked to al-Qaeda are gaining momentum in Northern Mali. 

Fourth, ineffective national, regional and international response. At the national level, the security apparatus is less capacitated to recapture the regions under the control of insurgent groups. The groups’ unpredictable behaviour and infiltration into the local population make it hard for any productive response. At the regional level, in 2023, all three countries fell out of ECOWAS and formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES). The formation of AES was a response to ECOWAS’ military intervention threat following the coup in Niger. The threat was allegedly backed by France. At the international level, Western forces are no longer welcome in all three countries. French, German, the US and the UN troops have left the region amidst increasing anti-West sentiments. Although Russian mercenaries have entered as an alternative, they have been unsuccessful in containing the spread of insurgency. 

In perspective
JNIM seems to have captured vast areas of Burkina Faso. The military carried out the coup toppling the elected government over its incompetence in fighting insurgency. However, the coup government too has failed to address the issue. Besides, the military failed to replace governance institutions, leaving several regions ungoverned. This has given militant groups the leverage to take control of these regions and act as pseudo-government, appealing to the local population. Additionally, the withdrawal of the Western forces from Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger has given the insurgent groups the confidence to expand. It implies that JNIM and other insurgent groups would easily expand in these regions in the coming months. In the prospects, along with Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger would likely see an increased number of deadly attacks which complements a devastating humanitarian crisis.

Canada’s 100 per cent tariff on Chinese EVs
R Sachin Arvind

In the news
On 26 August, Canada imposed a 100 per cent tariff on import of Chinese electric vehicles and a 25 per cent tariff on steel and aluminium. The duties apply to all EVs including Tesla from 1 October 2024. 

On the same day, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated: “I think we all know that China is not playing by the same rules” He added: “What is important about this is we’re doing it in alignment and in parallel with other economies around the world.”

On the same day, China's Ministry of Commerce spokesperson stated that Canada's move would disrupt the global industrial and supply chains by undermining the global economic system and trade rules. 

Issues at large
First, the Chinese EV market in Canada and its implications. China is Canada’s second-largest trading partner. Canada is Tesla’s sixth-largest market, making it a significant concern for the company as some of its vehicles are manufactured in Shanghai. Chinese car brands are not widely popular in Canada, except BYD. The 100 per cent tariff comes as the country aligns with its automotive policy, building markets for domestic EV makers. Canada is pursuing partnerships with major European automakers, to reduce its reliance on imports from China. Canada’s automotive manufacturing companies and Unifor, the union of autoworkers, have been demanding tariffs on Chinese EVs similar to the US. It increased after a lobbying firm associated with BYD informed intentions to sell passenger cars in Canada.  

Second, China’s overproduction, oversupply and unfair advantage in the EV market. China’s EV manufacturers' overproduction caused an oversupply of cheaper EVs in the global market. The oversupply of cheaper EVs became a major competition for other EV manufacturers worldwide. The European countries accuse Chinese EV automakers of undervaluing their domestic goods, flooding Western markets and undercutting competition. China’s alleged unfair advantage in the market and pressure from domestic EV producers forced the authorities to impose the tariffs. 

Third, increasing global tariffs on Chinese EVs. On 14 June, the EU announced a 38 per cent tariff on imported Chinese EVs over concerns about the threat to the domestic automotive industry. On 14 May, the US announced tariff surges on Chinese imported goods including electric vehicles, steel and aluminium, computer chips and medical products. The White House stated that Trump's 2020 trade deal with China did not increase US exports nor boost the manufacturing sector.

In perspective
Canada’s move is likely to impact China-Canada economic-trade relations and harm the interests of the enterprises in both countries. However, Ottawa has taken a path similar to the EU and the US. The country is likely to continue to work with the US and other allies to ensure customers are not penalized by China’s alleged non-market practices. It would take punitive measures by imposing further tariffs. The Canadian side claims to support free trade and the multilateral trading system based on World Trade Organization rule. Meanwhile, China criticizes Canada for flagrantly violating WTO rules, carelessly following individual countries and adopting unilateral tariff measures, implying trade protectionism. 

Brazil and Greece: Raging wildfires 
Akriti Sharma

In the news
On 24 August, two people were killed in Sao Paulo in raging wildfires and 50 cities in Brazil were put on high alert. The wildfires have been burning in Sao Paulo, Amazon, and Pantanal regions. Around 3,000 firefighters have been deployed to douse the fires. In three days, the economic loss caused by the wildfires reached USD 182 million in Sao Paulo.

On 25 August, Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva stated: “We have not detected any lightning-caused fires, which suggests that the fires in the Amazon, Pantanal, and São Paulo have been set by people." Brazil’s Environment Minister Marina Silva declared Brazil “at war” with fire after a surge in blazes from Amazon to Sao Paulo.

On 26 August, in Greece, Mount Pangaion raged with wildfires for the fifth consecutive day. A high risk of fire (category 4) was issued across several regions. The fires have consumed 1,200 hectares of land. Approximately, 280 firefighters are working to douse the fire with the assistance of four planes, four helicopters, and 46 vehicles. The Civil Protection and Climate Change Ministry of Greece issued a fire warning of category four in Attica, Central Greece, Peloponnese, Eastern Macedonia, and Thrace.

Issues at large
First, the natural and human causes. Natural wildfires occur due to extremely dry and hot weather conditions, lightning and thunderstorms, and climate change. Human-induced wildfires are caused by human errors or intentions. In Brazil, wildfires have been both human-induced and naturally caused. The authorities are investigating the triggers and three people have been arrested in Sao Paulo. The authorities are sceptical regarding the unusual simultaneous burning of fires across the regions. However, in the Pantanal region, the fires have been burning for weeks and are caused by extremely hot and dry weather conditions induced by climate change. In Greece, the wildfires have prolonged and have been caused by climate change and global warming.

Second, the increasing frequency and magnitude of wildfires across the world. Climate change has increased the frequency, intensity, and magnitude of wildfires globally. So far in 2024, regions including Amazon, Pantanal, Canada, Australia, California, and the Mediterranean have witnessed major wildfires leading to destruction of infrastructure and biodiversity. The wildfires are recurring in every region worldwide.

Third, the vicious loop of climate change. Climate change is the major cause of wildfires but, at the same time burning of vegetation and forests emits greenhouse gases that add to the emissions and pollution in the environment, making wildfires cause double damage.

Fourth, the management of wildfires. A prompt response to wildfires is a must and requires national to local level efforts. Countries are unprepared to manage large-magnitude fires and fall short of firefighters. In Brazil, human-induced fires are a matter of concern and require investigation into the intentions. In Greece, the authorities are ill-equipped to handle the wildfires and their impact on the infrastructure, pollution, and worsening health conditions.

In perspective
First, enhanced preparedness and response. With the increase in extreme weather events, countries need to level up their resources and capacity to effectively respond to wildfires that are difficult to contain due to their longevity. 

Second, health impacts. Wildfires can lead to pollution and cause severe health problems. Countries require effective health advisories and responses to tackle the health impacts on the vulnerable population.

Third, enhanced climate action. The root cause of the problem needs to be addressed and climate action needs to be increased globally. Moreover, extreme weather events demand an effective adaptation. Countries should increase their investments in building enhanced climate adaptation strategies.

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan, Ayan Datta, Samruddi Pathak, Sayeka Ghosh, Neha Tresa George and Nuha Aamina

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Anti-subsidy probe into EU dairy imports 
On 21 August, the Guardian reported that China began an anti-subsidy investigation into dairy imports from the EU. China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that it would investigate 20 subsidy programs of eight EU member states, supporting the production of milk, cream, and cheese. It includes Ireland for subsidies on dairy equipment, Italy for livestock insurance and dairy subsidies, Austria and Belgium for loan schemes, and Romania for livestock subsidies. The European Commission promised to defend the interests of the European dairy industry and the common agricultural policy according to the World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. 
 
Taiwan: 41 Chinese aircraft and vessels located near the island
On 23 August, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence detected 41 Chinese aircraft and seven vessels around its territory. The ministry stated that 32 aircraft entered Taiwan’s Eastern Air Defence Identification Zone (ADIZ) on 23 August. On 22 August, the ministry detected eight Chinese aircraft and six vessels, with three aircraft entering the ADIZ. 

Taiwan: Eight military officers convicted of spying for China 
On 23 August, the Taipei Times reported that eight Taiwanese Armed Forces (TAF) officers were convicted on charges of spying for China. The Taiwan High Court sentenced the defendants for 18 months to 13 years in jail. The Taiwan High Prosecutors’ Office discovered two businessmen were recruited by Chinese intelligence to form a spy network in Taiwan. They received financial rewards from Chinese intelligence for handing over classified materials. Taiwna’s Ministry of National Defence urged its units to improve national security education and training to prevent Chinese espionage.

Kiribati: MP supports diplomatic switch from Taiwan to China 
On 23 August, RNZ reported that a newly elected Member of Parliament (MP) Kwan Sing stated that re-establishing bilateral relations with China has proved beneficial. She mentioned several initial uncertainties and public concerns that rose after Taneti Mamau's government cut ties with Taipei in favour of Beijing. But, she added: “They seem to have done so with the best interests of the country at heart, and so here we are, four years later, and I think the friendship between China and Kiribati has deepened, and it has reignited more interest in the Pacific region, which is also seems to be a positive outcome.” Additionally, she stated that the Kiribati people have accepted the switch and discussed leveraging support from China and other partners. 

Japan: China accused of violating airspace after reconnaissance aircraft detected
On 27 August, Al Jazeera reported that the Japanese government accused China of threatening its security through incursions into its airspace. The accusations came after the Japan Self-Defence Forces stated that a Chinese Y-9 reconnaissance plane was detected circling over the Danjo Islands off the coast of Kyushu Island. Japan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs summoned the acting Chinese Charge d’Affaires Shi Yong to protest the incursion and demand China take preventive steps to avoid similar incidents. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi stated that the incursion was “not only a serious violation of Japan’s sovereignty, but it also threatens our security.” Hayashi informed that the government would continue monitoring Chinese military activities and was prepared for airspace breaches. 

Japan: Alert on Typhoon Shanshan
On 26 August, the Japan Meteorological Agency warned of a powerful storm expected to hit western Japan on 27 August. The agency alerted of high waves and heavy rainfall. The Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport, and Tourism Satoshi Omatsu said: “The most important thing is to prepare in advance to check hazard maps and other information at home, workplace, and places of flood and landslide disaster risks, as well as information on evacuation sites and routes in case of emergency.” Omatsu informed the possibility of planned flight cancellations and road closures and requested the residents to be aware of updates. 

North Korea: Suicide drone test
On 26 August, Japan Today reported that North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un witnessed ‘suicide drones’ tests. According to the North Korean state news agency, KCNA, Kim visited the Drone Institute at the Academy of Defence Sciences and called for the production of more similar drones. KCNA stated that Kim wanted the drones to be used in tactical infantry and special operation units including underwater and multipurpose attack drones. According to South Korea’s Ministry of Unification, this was the first time North Korea revealed these drones, and South Korea plans to use laser weapons to shoot down North Korean drones. 

South Korea: Health and Medical Workers Union announces strike for a pay rise and better healthcare system
On 24 August, the Korea Times reported that The Korean Health and Medical Workers’ Union announced a countrywide strike next week. The protesters are demanding a 6.4 per cent increase in wages and a resolution to the ongoing walkout by trainee doctors. Since February, about 12,000 trainee doctors left their workplaces, protesting a governmental plan to increase the number of foreign medical students. The union informed that nurses and doctors in emergency services would continue to work. 

Myanmar: Junta to lose in Rakhine state, says the International Crisis Group
On 27 August, the Strait Times quoted a report by the International Crisis Group that the Arakan Army had been advancing in the Rakhine state since November and the junta troops were losing the hold. It mentioned that with the Rakhine state, the Arakan army would create the “single largest area controlled by an ethnic armed group.” The report read: “The Arakan Army is in the process of carving out a proto-state of over a million people on the Myanmar-Bangladesh border.” 

Indonesia: Multinational annual military exercise
On 26 August, the Straits Times reported that Indonesia, the US and eight other countries commenced the two-week multinational military exercise on “joint capabilities in the Asia-Pacific.” The annual Super Garuda Shield exercise began in Sidoarjo, East Java, with Indonesia deploying more than 4,400 troops. According to the Indonesian military, around 1,800 US troops participated. Commander of the Hawaii Air National Guard Major-General Joseph Harris said: “The exercise, first held in 2007, has evolved into a “world-class joint/multinational event designed to enhance our collective capabilities.” 

The Philippines: Confirms two mpox cases
On 26 August, the Philippines confirmed two clade II mpox cases. Health Secretary Teodoro Herbosa said: “We continue to see local transmission of mpox clade II here in the Philippines, in Metro Manila, in particular.” The active cases now have risen to three. 

South Asia
Pakistan: Dacoit and militant attacks kill 12 policemen and two girls in Punjab
On 22 August, 12 police constables were killed and nine were injured in a rocket attack by dacoits in the Katcha area near the Punjab-Sindh border. In July and August, six policemen died in several attacks. Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz stated: “My team under the supervision of Home Secretary, IG and CTD has been dispatched with clear directions to sort them out decisively.” On the same day, two persons on a motorcycle opened fire on a school van, killing two girls. President Asif Ali Zardari condemned the attack. He said: “Targeting innocent chi­­l­­dren is a cruel and sha­­­­meful act.” Separately, the government approved a bill for PKR 20 billion for Operation Azm-i-Isthekam, a counterterrorism and extremism initiative. It involves the deployment of Pakistan’s military, diplomatic, legislative and socio-economic resources to combat terrorism and extremism.  

Pakistan: Series of attacks across Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
On 26 August, at least 23 people were shot dead after armed men offloaded them from buses and trucks. They were shot after the armed men checked their identities. The Mushakhail Assistant Commissioner, Najeeb Dakar, informed that the men blocked the highway in the district’s Rarasham area and set ten vehicles on fire. He noted that among the 23, three were from Balochistan and others were from Punjab. In April, nine people were shot dead near Noshki after their IDs were checked. In October 2023, undesignated gunmen shot six labourers from Punjab in the Kech district of Balochistan. Police believe these murders targeted people from Punjab, linking the reason to their ethnic background. Condemning the attack, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif stated: “The terrorists responsible for this incident will be severely punished.” 

Separately. on 25 August, attacks broke out across Mushakhil, Sibi, Pishin, Quetta, Mastung, Bolan, Kalat, Bela, Panjgur, Pasni, Turbat, Sunstar and Gwadar regions of Balochistan. These attacks targeted police stations and levies. On 26 August, the Inter-Service Public Relations  (ISPR) confirmed that 14 personnel were killed in an operation to suppress violence against civilians. 21 terrorists were killed during the operation. Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi informed that an action plan was being formed to respond to the “terrorists” like “terrorists” and not as “naraaz (discontent) Baloch.” On the same day, four persons were reported dead and 15 injured in a suicide bomb attack in Ramzak area, North Waziristan. The bombing targeted the former militant commander, Usman alias Liwanay. 

Bangladesh: Clashes between paramilitary forces and students 
On 25 August, the members of Ansar Bahini began a protest outside the National Press Club which later spread to the Secretariat’s five entrances. They demanded the nationalisation of their positions. Meanwhile, students of Dhaka University marched to the Secretariat and clashed with the Ansar members. At least 40 people were injured in the clashes. The following day, the Dhaka court sent 390 Ansar members to prison, accusing them of blocking entrances, ransacking the Secretariat and attacking students. 

Sri Lanka: Chinese warships arrive for formal visit
On 26 August, three warships from China arrived at Colombo on a formal visit. The warship named “HE FEI” arrived with 267 crew members. The “WUZHISHAN” and “QILIANSHAN” arrived with 872 and 334 crew members, respectively. This visit is an attempt to enhance their naval relations while crew members are to take part in other programs organised by the Sri Lanka Navy. 

The Middle East and Africa
Israel: Hamas delegation to arrive in Cairo for negotiations
On 24 August, the Times of Israel reported that a Hamas delegation would travel to Cairo to negotiate a Gaza ceasefire and hostage exchange with representatives of Israel, the US, Egypt and Qatar. Egypt refused to pressure Hamas to accept the new deal, which includes Israeli control over the Rafah, Philadelphi and Netzarim Corridors. 

Israel: IDF conducts preemptive strike, Hezbollah launches over 300 rockets into Israel
On 25 August, the IDF Spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, stated that the military detected Hezbollah preparing an attack on Israel. The former launched preemptive airstrikes against the armed group “in a self-defence act.” On the same day, Hezbollah fired over 320 rockets into Israel, stating that the attacks were the “first phase” of retaliatory attacks against Israel’s assassination of their leader, Fuad Shukr, on 30 July. 

Israel: Drone strike and ramming attack in the West Bank
On 27 August, according to the Times of Israel, Israel’s military conducted a drone strike in the West Bank’s Nur Shams camp, killing Hamas member, Jibril Jibril. On 26 August, two assailants carried out a car-ramming attack against the IDF in the West Bank’s Ariel settlement. The IDF stated that the duo drove into Ariel, attempting to ram into Israeli soldiers. On 25 August, WAFA reported that Israeli forces raided the Balata refugee camp in West Bank’s Nablus city, demolishing one shopping mall and detaining six residents. On the same day, Israeli troops closed the Dothan checkpoint in the northern West Bank’s Jenin city, preventing the entry of essential supplies into the nearby villages. On 24 August, Israeli forces built multiple checkpoints in the West Bank’s Ramallah governorate and stopped and inspected Palestinian vehicles. On the same day, Israel’s military carried out raids in the West Bank’s Shuqba and Marda villages.  

The UAE: Mediates Russia-Ukraine prisoner exchange
On 24 August, the UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) reported that the government mediated the exchange of 230 prisoners between Russia and Ukraine. The MoFA added that the UAE helped exchange 1788 prisoners between the neighbouring countries since February 2022.  

Egypt: Increase in refugees fleeing conflicts
On 25 August, Africanews reported on the increasing number of refugees in Egypt. More than 7,48,000 refugees are registered with UNHCR Egypt. Majority of them fled the conflict in Sudan. Since the beginning of the civil war in Sudan, the number of refugees has increased by sevenfold in Egypt. The 2024 Sudan Regional Refugee Response plan estimated a need of USD 109 million for the educational needs of refugees. However, 20 per cent of the required amount has been provided. According to the Government of Egypt, 9,000 children arrive in Egypt every month. UNHCR in collaboration with UNICEF announced a 12-month grant in December 2023 which reached 20,000 Sudanese people. Besides, it allocated USD eight million to the Central African Republic, Chad, Ethiopia and South Sudan to deal with the refugee crisis amidst the civil war in Sudan. 

Sudan: 60 people killed in a dam collapse amidst heavy rains
On 26 August, at least 60 people were killed in Sudan after a dam burst due to heavy rainfall. The Arbat dam had a capacity of 22 million cubic metres and was a major drinking water source in the city of Port Sudan. The collapse of the dam has washed away several farms and villages. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), which controls the region, called on all "federal and state agencies to utilize all possibilities to help citizens in these regions and provide support and assistance to them." 

Nigeria: Floods kill 49 people
On 26 August, Al Jazeera reported that at least 49 people were killed and thousands were displaced in Nigeria following floods caused by heavy rains. The National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) reported that the northeastern states of Jigawa, Adamawa and Taraba were hit and 41,344 people were displaced. NEMA spokesperson Manzo Ezekiel stated: “We are just entering into the peak of the season, particularly in the northern part of the country, and the situation is very dire.” The floods destroyed 693 hectares of farmland. (Floods in Nigeria kill at least 49, displace thousands

Mali: 21 people killed in an attack by Tuareg coalition
On 26 August, at least 21 people were killed in a drone attack in the Tinzaouaten town in northern Mali. The coalition of the Tuareg groups has claimed the attack. In July, the Tuareg coalition carried out a similar attack in the region, killing more than 40 Malian soldiers and 80 Russian mercenaries. (Twenty-one civilians killed in Mali drone strikes: Separatist group

Africa: Several migrants stuck in the Mediterranean sea
On 25 August, nearly 200 migrants were rescued from the Mediterranean Sea by Doctors without Borders. A group of refugees had to spend four days in the sea after the boat’s engine failed. 191 migrants were boarded on NGO ships and sailed to the Italian port of Salerno. Africanews reported that every year thousands of people try to cross the Mediterranean Sea to take refuge in Europe. The UN’s International Organization for Migration’s Missing Migrants Project said that 3,041 people died or went missing while crossing the sea in 2023. 

Europe and The Americas
Finland: Kurdish leader captured by Turkish intelligence
On 25 August, the Middle East Monitor reported that the alleged ringleader for the branch of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Finland was captured by the National Intelligence Organization (MIT), Turkey’s intelligence agency. As per anonymous Turkish security sources in the media, the MIT and the Istanbul Police Department conducted a joint operation. It resulted in the capture of Mehnaz Omari alias ‘Naze Ad’ in Istanbul. Omari, an Iranian national, was accused of organizing events and protests in Finland supporting the PKK and involving in the group’s coordination, recruitment, and financing efforts. His arrest comes amidst increased efforts by Turkish intelligence to infiltrate the activities and networks of the PKK across Europe. Turkish authorities have accused the PKK of using European countries for recruitment and spreading their activities.

Russia: Drone attacks in Rakitnoe town in Belgorod
On 25 August, RT reported on Ukraine’s attack on Rakitnoe town in the Belgorod Oblast. According to Vyacheslav Gladkov, Governor of Belgorod, the attack resulted in the death of five civilians and injury of 13 more. He referred to the attack as a “brutal terrorist attack.” The shelling damaged a gas pipeline and an electrical power line. Further, he said that the drones and bombardments damaged residential homes, vehicles and civilian facilities. Russia’s Investigative Committee filed a criminal terrorism case against the strike on Rakitnoe.

Slovakia: Protest against the government's illiberal policies
On 23 August, Politico reported on the protests in Slovakia. The protestors include opposition politicians, journalists and nonprofit employees. The protests were against the illiberal direction under Prime Minister Robert Fico. They demanded the resignation of Slovakia’s Minister for Culture Martina Simkovicova. The demonstrators criticised her decision to cut funding for independent art institutions and sack the National Theatre Director and Director of the National Gallery. Other contentious actions taken by the Fico administration include closing the special prosecutor's office dealing with corruption cases and revamping the public broadcaster Radio and Television Slovakia. These events have fuelled the fear of Slovakia moving away from its ties with the West and gravitating towards an autocratic government similar to Hungary.  Meanwhile, Fico believes he is targeted for following a "sovereign and self-confident” Slovak foreign policy. 

The UK: Yellow warning issued over storm Lilian
On 22 August, the Meteorological Office (MET) office of the UK issued yellow weather warnings for the residents of northern England amidst the storm Lilian approaching. The UK faced two named storms, Antoni and Betty, in 2023. Ellen and Francis hit the UK in 2020. As autumn season is upcoming, jet streams and fast winds at higher altitudes can redirect Atlantic winds towards the UK. Autumn is also the peak of hurricane season. On 21 August, several parts of the UK faced heavy rainfall due to residual winds from an ex-hurricane Ernesto. Since Hurricanes form over warm waters, Atlantic countries are not prone to them. The temperature is likely to be lower than average for the upcoming week.

The US: Chinese and Russian firms blacklisted for supporting Russian military  
On 23 August, Reuters reported that the US added 105 firms to a trade restrictions list over alleged support to the Russian Armed Forces. 42 Chinese and 63 Russian firms were added to the list, with 18 from other countries. They were allegedly producing drones for Russia to use in Ukraine and sending US electronics to Russian military-related entities. Owing to the restrictions, suppliers from the US and overseas currently require a licence to ship to the targeted companies. 

About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Samruddi Pathak, Advik S Mohan and Sachin Aravind are Research Interns at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad.


PREVIOUS COMMENTS

The World This Quarter 
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The Middle East (Jan–Mar 2026):
The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts
The World This Quarter 
April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Afghanistan (Jan–Mar 2026):
Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan
The World This Quarter 
April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners
The World This Quarter 
April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)
Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown
The World This Quarter 
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)
Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives
The World This Quarter 
April 2026 | CWA # 2059

Adarsh Vijay

India and the World (Jan-Mar 2026)
Maintaining Strategic Autonomy, Balancing the US relations and Resetting the China ties 
The World This Quarter 
April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey  & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)
Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty
The World This Quarter 
April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)
An Illegitimate Regime’s Consolidation Game
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges
The World This Quarter 
April 2026 | CWA # 2055

Haans J Freddy

East Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
China’s military operations near Taiwan, Japan-China tensions and South Korea’s security challenges
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

The United States (Jan-Mar 2026)
Tariffs, Ukraine, Iran and Operationalization of Trump’s World Order
March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting
Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?
March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:
Five major challenges for the new government
March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War
UNSC Resolution 2817 between “Clear and Unified Message” and “Manifest Injustice”
March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

China’s Two Sessions 2026
New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget
March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
March 2026 | CWA # 2012

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Long-range strikes, Defence adaptation and the EU’s energy dependence
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026
The Rise of the “New” and the Fall of the “Old”
March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover
PR Commentary
February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan
The return of Basant, and what it signifies
February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria
US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency
February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine
The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26
Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China
Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
PR Explainer
November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US
A New opening, or another cycle?
February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China
PM Keir Starmer’s visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties
TWTW Note
January 2026 | CWA # 1946

R Preetha

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1727

Aparna A Nair

Second China-Central Asia Summit:
China’s continuing search for regional partners, and the emphasis on the BRI
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1709

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #284-285
Cambodia-Thailand Border Tensions, Protests in the US, and the Indigenous Māori question in New Zealand
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1703

M Kejia 

Sagarmatha Sambaad in Nepal
Kathmandu’s Global Agenda for the Himalayas
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1672

D Suba Chandran

India and Pakistan:
De-escalation and the “New Normal”
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan