Conflict Weekly

Conflict Weekly
The Continuing State of War, Mediation and Humanitarian Crisis in Sudan

IPRI Team
12 September 2024
Photo Source: Reuters

Conflict Weekly #245, 12 September 2024, Vol.5, No.37
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Anu Maria Joseph


Sudan: The war, famine and humanitarian crisis
Anu Maria Joseph
 
In the news
On 11 September, the UNSC extended sanctions including an arms embargo on Sudan for another year.

On 9 September, BBC reported that at least 21 people were killed and 70 others were injured in a shelling in the city of Sennar. The Sudan Doctors Network blamed the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and condemned the attack describing it as a "massacre" of civilians.

On 8 September, the Sudanese Armed Force (SAF) led government rejected the call by a UN fact-finding mission for the deployment of forces to protect civilians. The UN mission’s lead, Chande Othman, stated: “Given the failure of the warring parties to spare civilians, it is imperative that an independent and impartial force with a mandate to safeguard civilians be deployed without delay." 

On the same day, the SAF-led government described the UNHRC as a "political and illegal body" and referred to the recommendations by the mission as "a flagrant violation of their mandate."

On the same day, WHO chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, visited the city of Port Sudan and called on the "world to wake up and help Sudan out of the nightmare it is living through." He added: "The scale of the emergency is shocking, as is the insufficient action being taken to curtail the conflict and respond to the suffering it is causing."
 
Issues at large
First, the state of war. The war has crossed 16 months and shows no signs of ending. According to the UN, it has killed more than 20 thousand and displaced more than ten million. The war between two rival military forces has spread to Bahri, Omdurman, Port Sudan, Sennai and the states of Darfur and Kordofan, apart from the capital city Khartoum. Both sides are carrying out frequent shelling. Until August, RSF dominated much of Khartoum, Omdurman, Wad Madani, Bahri and Darfur states. However, the attack frequency has increased after SAF started gaining pocket regions around the capital. Currently, SAF controls parts of Khartoum, Omdurman, and Port Sudan. The previous UN arms embargo has not stopped the flow of weapons to the country. UNHRC fact-finding mission this week reported on the warring parties using armed drones, anti-tank guided missiles, and truck-mounted rocket launchers, which are allegedly originating from China, Iran, Russia, Serbia and the UAE. Meanwhile, RSF and SAF are accused of carrying out human rights atrocities against civilians. 

Second, failing international mediation. All diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire are failing. On 14 August, the latest round of US peace talks was held in Geneva, Switzerland. However, neither of the warring parties attended. SAF boycotted the meeting, blaming the RSF for not meeting the conditions of the Jeddah Declaration 2023, including the withdrawal of forces from civilian regions. RSF pulled out minutes before the talks began. The failed mediation in Geneva came after a series of peace talks in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and all failed. There were nine rounds of ceasefires; all of them failed at their primary phase. 

Third, the worsening famine and humanitarian crises. In August, famine was declared in the Zamzam camp in Darfur which hosts nearly 500,000 IDPs. The UN-partnered IPC Famine Review Committee reported that 14 regions in the states of Greater Darfur, South and North Kordofan, and Jazeera face conditions similar to those in Zamzam. According to the latest UN-backed Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) initiative, 25.6 million people, more than half of Sudan's population, face "crisis or worse" humanitarian conditions. Around 755,000  face phase five “catastrophic” conditions. The reach of humanitarian access to these regions is being disrupted and blocked by the warring sides. Meanwhile, recent heavy rains and floods have exacerbated the humanitarian crisis with the spread of cholera. According to Sudan Tribune, the outbreak has killed 242 people. The conflict has disrupted the health system and state responses to the humanitarian crisis.
 
In perspective
While the war is continuing without a break, the Sudanese state appears to be crumbling. The humanitarian crisis is evolving into a humanitarian disaster with a limited and restricted ground for international response. More than one year into the war, Sudanese people have started to live with it; so as the international attention to it. The international media attention to the war in Sudan has reduced significantly. It does not mean the war has slowed down, but war is being normalised. Initially, the US and Saudi Arabia were able to bring warring parties to the mediating table, but seldom they complied with the agreed commitments. Now, it seems both warring parties are reluctant and superficial about international efforts. The same efforts receive similar outputs. Maybe, it's time for the international community to rethink its strategies in reaching out to the war in Sudan.


Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups

Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan, Ayan Datta, Samruddi Pathak, Sayeka Ghosh and Neha Tresa George

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Plans on joint military exercises with Brazil
On 6 September, SCMP reported that China would hold joint military exercises with Brazil. Chinese Ministry of National Defence informed that a detachment of the People’s Liberation Army(PLA) Marine Corps would participate in the annual military exercise, Exercise Formosa. According to the Chinese Ministry of National Defence, the Brazilian Armed Forces invited China to participate in the exercises. The ministry stated that the exercises would focus on joint landing and anti-landing combat drills, increase friendship and cooperation, and improve the ability to launch joint responses to security risks. Exercise Formosa is an annual military exercise hosted by the Brazilian Marine Corps. Brazil’s President, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, announced the country’s participation in the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Meanwhile, China’s Minister of National Defence, Dong Jun, met the Commander of the Brazilian Army, Tomas Ribeiro Paiva.

China: Anti-dumping probe into Canadian rapeseed imports
On 10 September, Reuters reported that China announced an investigation into rapeseed imports from Canada. Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that the inquiry would examine imports from 1 January to 31 December 2023. The ministry informed that preliminary data implied rapeseed dumping. The ministry found a correlation between Canadian rapeseed import dumping and damage to domestic industry. The ministry added that the inquiry would start effective immediately and shall be completed before 9 September 2025. The probe came a week after the Canadian government imposed a 100 per cent tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles and other products. Canada’s Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food, Lawrence MacAulay, responded that the country’s products met the highest standards. MacAulay informed that the Canadian government followed rules-based trade and had strong inspection systems. He added that the government would always support the agriculture sector. Over half of Canada’s rapeseed exports are to China, making it a key market.

Taiwan: Three retired officers sentenced for spying for China
On 7 September, Business Standard reported that the Taipei District Court sentenced three Military Intelligence Bureau (MIB) retired officers to jail. The officers face charges of creating a spy ring to collect sensitive information for China. The three officers are accused of using benefits from the Chinese government for their business and revealing personal background information about their colleagues to Chinese officials. Prosecutors in Taiwan charged them with violating the National Security Act by forming a spy ring and the National Security Work for leaking secrets.
 
Taiwan: The US passes Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act
On 9 September, Taiwan News reported that the US House of Representatives passed the Taiwan Conflict Deterrence Act. The bill targets the assets of top Chinese leaders and cuts them off from the US financial system to prevent them from invasion of Taiwan. The act was co-sponsored by Representatives of the House, French Hill and Brad Sherman, and passed without objection. Hill informed that the US Department of Treasury would disclose the illicit assets of top Chinese leaders if they decide to attack Taiwan. Hill stated that the US recognised the Government of the People’s Republic of China in 1979 on the condition that decisions over Taiwan’s future would be peaceful. According to Sherman, the bill intends to undermine support for the Communist Party of China through publishing the corrupt gains of its high-ranking officials. Sherman stated that the Chinese leadership needs to stop intimidating Taiwan. He informed that Beijing shall realise that the US would launch military and economic responses alongside “very personal economic disclosures.”

North Korea: Nuclear weapons can deter any enemy threats, says Kim Jong Un
On 10 September, The Korea Times quoted North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, commenting on the country’s nuclear capabilities to deter any enemy threats. Kim promised to bolster the country’s nuclear force against the US security threats. Kim stated: “The obvious conclusion is that the nuclear force of the DPRK and the posture capable of properly using it for ensuring the state's right to security in any time should be more thoroughly perfected. The DPRK will steadily strengthen its nuclear force capable of fully coping with any threatening acts imposed by its nuclear-armed rival states and redouble its measures and efforts to make all the armed forces of the state, including the nuclear force, fully ready for combat.” Minister of Unification said: “Kim's speech seems to be aimed at solacing public sentiments, aggravated by the flood damage, and pressing officials to produce major achievements before the end of the year.” 

South Korea: Pentagon ends commitment with allies over regional security
On 10 September, The Korea Times quoted the Pentagon spokesperson's speech to end commitment with its allies over regional security after North Korea revealed its mobile missile launcher. The Pentagon press secretary Major General Pat Ryder said: “It's not unusual for North Korea to use media reports and imagery to try to telegraph, you know, to the world. From a US standpoint, again, our focus is on working with our regional allies and partners including the ROK and Japan on preserving regional security and stability and deterring a potential attack.” This was the first time Pyongyang delivered the 12-axled TEL and the longest mobile launcher with an 11-axled missile vehicle with 22 wheels. However, one of the observers said: “North might be seeking to have a larger mobile launcher as part of efforts to produce a longer-range ICBM or other missile platform capable of carrying a more powerful warhead.” 

South Korea: Convenes summit for a blueprint on the military use of AI
On 9 September, Reuters reported that South Korea convened a summit to establish a blueprint for the responsible use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the military. Over 90 countries, including the US and China, sent representatives to the two-day summit in Seoul. The summit was co-hosted by the Netherlands, Singapore, Kenya, and the UK, with about 2,000 individuals globally registered to participate. The summit aimed to ensure multi-stakeholder discussions on AI, wherein governments are the key decision-makers despite the private sector driving technological developments. The Minister for Foreign Affairs of South Korea, Cho Tae-yul, informed that summit discussions would cover topics including a legal review to ensure compliance with international law and mechanisms to prevent autonomous weapons from making life-and-death decisions without proper human oversight. The summit hoped to agree on a common action blueprint. A minimum level of guard rails for AI usage in the military and principles on responsible AI use were among the prospective points in the blueprint. South Korean Minister of National Defence, Kim Yong-hyun, informed in his opening address that Ukraine used AI-enabled drones in the war against Russia to overcome signals to jam and allow unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to work in larger groups. Kim stated that AI usage in the military domain was a “double-edged sword,” as it would improve the operational capabilities of the military. 

South Korea: Simulation drills with the US
On 6 September, The Korea Times reported on simulation drills between South Korea and the US to boost nuclear deterrence cooperation. The tabletop simulations of TTS drills consisted of national security, military, diplomatic and intelligence officials. One of the officials said: “The simulation greatly contributes to the work of NCG, especially by strengthening the alliance's approach to cooperative decision-making about nuclear deterrence and planning for potential nuclear contingencies on the Korean Peninsula.” During the TTS program, the US reaffirmed its extended deterrence commitment to South Korea, referring to its pledge to use full military capabilities, including nuclear weapons, to defend its allies. The call for deterrence came after North Korea started intensifying its nuclear and missile programs and cooperation with Moscow. 

Papua New Guinea: Pope departs with a message to end tribal violence
On 9 September, RNZ reported on Pope Francis's peace and unity message amongst the tribes of Papua New Guinea during his departure. During the first public speech, he said: “These cultural and environmental treasures represent a great responsibility and duty to the people. These are goods destined by God for the entire community. Even if outside experts and large international companies must be involved in the harnessing of these resources, it is only right that the needs of local people are given due consideration when distributing the proceeds and employing workers, to improve their living conditions.” He talked about the killings in tribal conflicts over the past three years and that it is hindering the development of Guinean citizens. He appealed to the community to end the violence and begin cooperation for the benefit of the people and the country. The choir group coordinator Clement Kapapal said: “I am inspired. At this time, we need to stand firm in our faith. We can make mistakes. But this is also a certainty that we have to correct ourselves. When we fall, we don't remain down. What's important is we get back up.” 

Vietnam: Typhoon Yagi kills 141 residents, triggers landslides and floods
On 11 September, Vietnam saw an increase in the death toll from Typhoon Yagi. Around 141 people died and 59 others went missing in the capital Hanoi. Heavy rains resulted in the overflow of the Red River. According to state media reports, the water level of the Red River rose by ten centimetres every hour. The typhoon triggered landslides and floods, causing property damage and difficulties for businesses and industries. The schools were closed and children were asked to stay at home. Several people living in the low-lying regions were evacuated.

Myanmar: Junta strikes Arakan Army detention centre
On 10 September, Irrawaddy Times reported on the junta airstrikes on the Arakan Army detention centres in Pauktaw and Maungdaw townships in the Rakhine state. The attack led to the death of nearly 70 people. The detainees in the base included military informants and Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and Rohingya Solidarity Organization (RSO) militants. 

South Asia
Pakistan: Cabinet approves amendment that grants special powers to the security forces in Balochistan
On 6 September, The News International reported that the federal cabinet approved an amendment to the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA) 1997, over the declining security situation in Balochistan. The amendment grants special powers to the Pakistan Army, police personnel and the executive in Balochistan. The amendment to Section 11EE of the Act provides judicial protection to these forces in carrying out security operations. According to official sources, the forces will be allowed to detain anyone suspected of terror activities for three months and joint investigation teams will be formed for the same purpose. The amendment temporarily empowers the security entities to carry out pre-trial detentions and includes a sunset clause to ensure this. Government sources revealed that the centre has decided to provide armed forces and Law-Enforcement Agencies (LEAs) with all necessary resources to combat terrorism.  

Pakistan: Minister seeks ulema’s intervention in countering terrorism
On 6 September, Minister of Interior Mohsin Raza Naqvi and Minister for Religious Affairs Chaudhry Salik Hussain discussed with the delegation of religious leaders led by Ruet-i-Hilal committee chairman Maulana Abdul Khabeer Azad on counter-terrorism measures and religious intolerance. At the meeting, Naqvi emphasised stopping “the misuse of Islam and preventing people from being misled into terrorism.” He opined that those who opposed the state with arms were terrorists. He added that scholarly intervention is required to get out of the menacing environment created by terrorists stating that the country is required to “unite” to “eliminate terrorism.” Hussain opined: “We need to save the new generation from guns and fire, and the government, institutions, and scholars need to work together to provide a safe future for the new generation.” 

Pakistan: Security forces kill nine militants in separate incidents
On 7 September, the Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) stated that the security forces killed four suicide bombers who attempted an attack on the Frontier Corps Headquarters. It stated: “The attempt to enter the camp was effectively thwarted by the security forces personnel, and resultantly the khwarij, all four suicide bombers, were sent to hell before they could cause the intended damage.” The military’s media wing added: “Pakistan security forces stand valiant, with the sheer determination and resolve, to wipe out the menace of terrorism from the country.” Separately, on the same day, five terrorists were killed by security personnel in the Surkhab refugee camp in Pishin district. Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) spokesperson said that a large cache of arms and ammunition were recovered from the terrorists’ hideout. 

Pakistan: Clashes at Palosin border kill eight Afghanistan soldiers
On 7 September, Pakistan and Afghanistan forces clashed at the checkpost in Palosin, killing eight Afghan soldiers. Sources said: “We have reports about heavy losses on the other [Afghan] side. So far, eight Afghan Taliban have been killed and 16 others have sustained injuries in retaliatory firing by the Pakistani forces,” including two key commanders. The local officials said that the confrontations began after the Taliban started constructing a checkpoint near the border, despite Pakistan’s disagreement. On 8 September, a frontier corps official was killed and three other personnel sustained injuries in a militant attack on the Tall Scouts Checkpost in the Marghan area. 

Pakistan: Highest exposure to conflict, reveals World Risk Index
On 9 September, Dawn reported Pakistan’s performance in the World Risk Index 2024 by Ruhr University Bochum-Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict (IFHV). Pakistan is among the countries with the highest exposure to conflict and the top 15 countries with the highest disaster risk. The report indicates growing risks and crises due to climate change, population, pandemics and political polarization. The report notes that eight of ten hotspots are in Asia and the Americas. However, these hotspots might shift to climate-sensitive and high-vulnerable regions. The hotspots are the Philippines, Indonesia, India, Colombia, Mexico, Myanmar, Mozambique, Russia, Bangladesh and Pakistan. Natural disasters, poverty, ethnic marginalization and weak state institutions can either amplify or trigger armed conflicts. The report referred to the growing decline in food security worldwide as heavy rainfalls, storms, droughts and floods impact agriculture, humankind and nature. 

The Middle East and Africa
Israel: IDF kills Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad commanders
On 8 September, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) stated that it conducted an airstrike in southern Gaza’s Rafah city, killing the Commander of Hamas’ Rocket Launching Platoon in eastern Khan Younis, Raef Omar Salman Abu Shab. Shab was responsible for launching rockets into southern and central Israel since 7 October. The IDF carried out infantry operations in central Gaza and airstrikes on 25 Hamas cells and military infrastructure across the enclave. On 7 September, the IDF killed two Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) commanders, Abdallah Khatib and Hatem Abu Aljidian, in Gaza’s Deir al-Balah region. The IDF stated that while Khatib was involved in killing Israelis on 7 October 2023, Aljidan attacked Israeli troops in the ongoing war. Israel’s military added that the men embedded themselves “inside the Humanitarian Area in Deir al-Balah.”

Israel: Jordanian gunman kills three Israelis
On 8 September, according to The Times of Israel, a Jordanian gunman opened fire at Israelis near the Allenby (or King Hussein) Bridge between the West Bank and Jordan, killing three Israeli settlers. The assailant, Maher Dhiab Hussein al-Jazi, from southern Jordan’s Udhruh region, left his truck while Israeli troops were inspecting it and fired at the nearby civilians. The Israel Airport Authority officers, who were guarding the crossing, killed the gunman soon after the attack and searched the vehicle for explosives. 

Israel: Palestinian Authority holds funeral for US-Turkish activist
On 9 September, The Guardian reported that the Palestinian Authority (PA), the governing body of the West Bank, held a funeral procession for activist Ayşenur Ezgi Eygi, who was allegedly shot by Israeli troops while protesting the latter’s war and occupation. On 6 September, Eygi was killed by a sniper bullet. Although eyewitnesses said that the gunshot came from Israeli troops, the IDF said it was investigating the matter. The victim’s parents demanded an independent US-led investigation into the killing, alleging that the IDF inquiry was not impartial. 

Israel: Military raids, and Jewish settler attacks in the West Bank
On 10 September, according to the Times of Israel, the IDF resumed operations in the northern West Bank’s Tulkarem region. The raids were a continuation of the Israeli military’s Operation Summer Camp, launched on 28 August. On 9 September, Israeli troops and settlers destroyed agricultural land in the West Bank’s northeastern Ramallah region. On the same day, Israeli settlers attacked a Palestinian Bedouin village in the southern West Bank’s Hebron Governorate with the support of Israeli troops. On 8 September, Wafa reported that Israeli forces demolished a house in Jerusalem’s Hizma town, forcing the owner, Moatamen Abdul Sami Subaih and his family to evacuate. Wafa noted that Israel justifies such demolitions by refusing to issue housing permits to the West Bank’s Palestinians, forcing them to build houses illegally. The Palestinian news agency added that the unofficial Israeli policy aims to force Palestinians out of the West Bank.

Israel: IDF airstrike kills Hezbollah commander
On 10 September, according to the Times of Israel, the IDF killed the commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan forces, Muhammad Qassem al-Shaer, in an airstrike in southern Lebanon’s Beqaa Valley. The Israeli military called the strike another blow to the ability of the Hezbollah terror organisation to advance and carry out terror attacks from southern Lebanon against the Israeli home front on the northern border.

Syria: Israeli airstrikes on research centre
On 9 September, the Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) reported that Israel conducted airstrikes in Western Syria’s Massyaf region, killing 18 civilians and injuring 37 others. According to the BBC, Israel targeted Masayaf’s Scientific Studies and Research Centre (SRCC), which Syria uses to develop chemical weapons and supply arms to Hezbollah in neighbouring Lebanon.

Nigeria: Heavy rains cause dam collapse and flooding
On 11 September, Al Jazeera reported that a collapse of dame following heavy rains in northeastern Borno state of Nigeria caused severe flooding. The flooding destroyed homes and livelihoods, affecting a million people. The floods are compounding an ongoing humanitarian crisis in the region due to the Boko Haram insurgency and recurring floods. According to the National Emergency Management Agency, the floods have killed 229 people in the country this year. 

Senegal: 26 migrants die in a shipwreck 
On 12 September, BBC reported that 26 people died after a boat carrying migrants capsized near Senegal’s coast. More than 100 migrants were on board, travelling to Spain’s Canary Islands. The number of people trying to cross through the dangerous Atlantic route to the Spanish Islands is increasing yearly. This year, nearly 30,000 migrants have arrived in the Spanish Islands. Conflicts, instability, poverty and unemployment in their home countries are the major reasons behind the migrant surge.

Europe and The Americas
Denmark: Maelstrom in glaciers in Greenland pose risk to scientific expeditions
On 8 September, The Guardian reported about stadium-sized ice blocks crashing against each other during underwater currents. This is causing a maelstrom in the glaciers. Besides, Celtic Explorer, a multi-purpose research vessel operated by the Marine Institute in Ireland, is being sent on an exploration mission. Scientists regard this as a “high-risk, high rewards mission.” The mission aims to understand surging sea levels. Glaciers in Greenlands are disintegrating and impacting coastal cities’ sea levels. Ginny Catania, a chief scientist from the University of Texas (UT), said that the team will collect data including core sedimentation samples at the glaciers’ foot. However, the challenge is zero visibility underwater due to the maelstrom. There are warnings of ice sheet collapse in Greenland which might lead to a seven-metre sea level rise. According to John Jaeger from the University of Florida, Florida is experiencing frequent high tides due to sea level rise. The focus of the expedition is the Kangerlussuup glacier in Greenland which is 50 kilometres wide and 300 metres tall. 

Russia: Captures a village near Pokrovsk Oblast
On 9 September, The Moscow Times reported that Russian forces captured the east Ukrainian village of Memryk, which is 20 kilometres away from the Pokrovsk region. According to Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs: “Units of the Tsenter grouping of troops liberated the settlement of Memryk.” Half the population of Pokrovsk has fled since the fighting intensified in the nearby areas. Russia claims to have captured several Ukrainian towns and villages near Pokrovsk in August and September.

France: Protests after Barnier becomes Prime Minister
On 7 September, more than 1,00,000 people gathered across France to protest against Micheal Barnier becoming the Prime Minister. Barnier is from the centre-right of France’s political spectrum, although the far-left won the majority votes. The protesters include worker union leaders and New Popular Front members. According to the Ministry of Interior, more than 1,10,000 people participated in around 130 protests countrywide. Protestors used slogans including “stolen election” and “denial of democracy.” However, Barnier said that he is open to forming a government with the far left. On 8 September, Barnier visited a children’s hospital, emphasising his focus on public healthcare infrastructure while stating that his government “will not perform miracles.”

The Netherlands: Joins Italy and Spain in anti-tourism protests
On 8 September, citizens of the Zeeland region in the Netherlands appealed to the Council of the State to curb tourism development infrastructure. According to NL Times, every third house in Zeeland is a vacation home. Noord-Beveland municipality houses around 8,000 citizens and is quiet throughout the year except during the tourist season when the city is flooded with traffic. NL Times found that tourism in the city has peaked due to the construction of a bridge that connects the island to the mainland Netherlands. Residents of Noord-Beveland approached a foundation called “Wij Zijn Noord-Beveland” to fight against tourism in the city. Such incidents were reported in Spanish and Italian cities where the public protested against rising tourism. 

Ukraine: Attacks across Donetsk Oblast
On 7 September, RadioFreeEuropeRadioLiberty informed that at least five civilians were killed in Russian shelling in the Donetsk Oblast of Ukraine. Vadym Filashkin, Governor of Donetsk Oblast, informed that three men between the ages of 24 and 69 were killed in the town of Kostyantynivka. Filashkin informed that four residents were injured in the shelling. According to reports, two men in their 50s were killed in shelling near the town of Toretsk. Anastasia Medvedeva, a spokesperson for the Office of the Prosecutor General in Donetsk stated that a fourth person was injured in the attack on Kostyantynivka.

Chile: Suspect behind deadly forest fire arrested
On 9 September, police in Chile arrested a firefighter who is suspected of having started a deadly forest fire that killed more than 137 people. The suspect worked for Chile's National Service for Disaster Prevention. The fires were set ablaze on 2 February in Viña del Mar. He is the third suspect to be arrested in the incident. The fires initially started at Lago Peñuelas national park. The fire was perpetuated by high winds and extreme temperatures. Apart from 137 lost lives, around 2,000 houses were burnt down and 16,000 households faced severe financial losses. 

Venezuela: Edmundo González continues to fight for democracy 
On 07 September, the opposition leader of Venezuela, Edmundo Gonzalez, distributed an audio message through his press team, thanking his supporters for assisting to leave the country and accusing the government led by Maduro of conspiracy. US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, said: “Mr González's departure from Venezuela is the direct result of the anti-democratic measures that Nicolás Maduro has unleashed on the Venezuelan people.” Spain granted asylum to Gonzalez. Meanwhile, Argentina’s embassy is sheltering six opposition leaders in Caracas.

The US: Hurricane Francine warns heavy rains and storms
On 9 September, according to the National Hurricane Centre, a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico, Francine, turned into a Category 1 hurricane. It is expected to turn into a Category 2 hurricane by the time it hits Louisiana. Mississippi and Louisiana have declared a state of emergency due to expected heavy rainfall. Francine is expected to bring 100 millimetres to 200 millimetres of rainfall, potential tornados and strong winds. Residents of Alabama and Florida have been warned against strong storms. 

The US: Forest fires in California
On 6 September, the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, declared a state of emergency due to uncontrollable forest fires in San Bernardino National Forest. It is currently the fourth largest active wildfire in California. 1,700 firefighters have been deployed to tackle the fires. Due to the fires, dangerous heat waves are expected across southern California. The fires have currently spread across 2,000 acres of forest. More than 10,000 people fall under the mandatory evacuation orders. The fires threaten buildings, structures and homes in eastern Los Angeles. 


About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Samruddi Pathak is a Research Intern at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad.


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June 2026 | CWA # 2130

Akshath Kaimal

The UK-Rwanda Asylum Deal: 
Why did the Permanent Court of Arbitration reject Rwanda’s claims? What was Rwanda’s complaint? Why did the UK cancel the deal?
June 2026 | CWA # 2129

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa This Week:
The Ebola fear in DR Congo and the Elections in Ethiopia amidst conflicts
May 2026 | CWA # 2126

Aparna A Nair

The Shenzhou-23 Mission:
China’s Space Missions, Technology, and Infrastructure
May 2026 | CWA # 2124

Glynnis Winona B

The Crisis in Cuba:
The US Sanctions, Energy Crisis, and Economic Instability
May 2026 | CWA # 2123

Akshath Kaimal

The Ebola and the DR Congo:
Multiple Outbreaks, Fragile Healthcare System, and Ineffective Global Responses
May 2026 | CWA # 2122

Radhika M Agarwal

The War in Ukraine:
Ballistic missiles, Nuclear drills with Belarus, and the Czech ammunition initiative
May 2026 | CWA # 2120

Brighty Ann Sarah

Conflicts in the Middle East
The US-Iran War Week Thirteen: Escalating Hostilities, Tenuous Ceasefire and Tense Negotiations
May 2026 | CWA # 2119

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
The Ebola spread in DR Congo, The Faye-Sonko split in Senegal, and the Deepening US military involvement in Nigeria
May 2026 | CWA # 2115

Aparna A Nair

The Putin-Xi Summit
Trade, Technology, Security, and Pipeline
May 2026 | CWA # 2114

Glynnis Winona B

What makes the UAE a global player?
Explaining the Governance, Economy, People, and Strategic Influence of a Small Middle Eastern State
May 2026 | CWA # 2113

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Sri Lanka and the US-Iran War 
Rising oil imports, Austerity measures and State capacity
May 2026 | CWA # 2111

NIAS Global Politics Team

The Trump-Xi Summit
The Africa Forward Summit 2026 I North Korea's Constitutional Amendment 2026
May 2026 | CWA # 2110

Aishal Hab Yousuf

The Trump-Xi Summit:
Managing Strategic Competition through Trade, Technology, and Diplomacy
May 2026 | CWA # 2092

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War, Week Ten
CW Column on Middle East: Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAE's Covert Manoeuvres
May 2026 | CWA # 2091

Brighty Ann Sarah

Conflicts in the Middle East:
Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAEs Covert Manoeuvres
May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:
Fraying Ceasefire, Renewed Negotiations and the Risk of a Stalemate
May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V

King Charles's US Visit:
Emphasis on strong bilateral relations, democratic values and security cooperation
May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf

UAEs Exit from OPEC:
Implications for the Middle East and the Energy Market
May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:
Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure
May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal

Escalating Violence in Mali:
Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups
April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Japans New Defence Posture:
From Post-War Pacifism to Strategic Recalibration and Autonomy
April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
Asymmetric Terms, Fragile Truce and Israeli Occupation
April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad
April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan
Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts
April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Expanding Drone Warfare, Russia's Strategic Patience and Ukraine's Diplomatic Outreach
April 2026 | CWA # 2068

Femy Francis

China-Japan Tensions
Escalating Defence Posturing and Economic Decoupling
April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar
April 2026 | CWA # 2066

Akshath Kaimal

The Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Recurrent Clashes, Defiant Taliban, Contesting Narratives and Emerging Chinas Role
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The Middle East (JanMar 2026):
The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts
April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Afghanistan (JanMar 2026):
Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan
April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners
April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)
Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)
Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives
April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)
Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty
April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)
An Illegitimate Regime's Consolidation Game
April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges
April 2026 | CWA # 2055

Haans J Freddy

East Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Chinas military operations near Taiwan, Japan-China tensions and South Koreas security challenges
April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

Chinas External Landscape (Jan-Mar 2026):
Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East
April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

The United States(Jan-Mar2026)
Tariffs, Ukraine, Iran and Operationalization of Trumps World Order
March 2026 | CWA # 2042

Preetha Renganarayanan

Five Takeaways of the US Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) Report for 2026
March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting
Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?
March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation
March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:
Five major challenges for the new government
March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War
UNSC Resolution 2817 between Clear and Unified Message and Manifest Injustice
March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

Chinas Two Sessions 2026
New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget
March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
March 2026 | CWA # 2012

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Long-range strikes, Defence adaptation and the EUs energy dependence
March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026
The Rise of the New and the Fall of the Old
March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The Forgotten South Sudan Conflict
Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modis Visit to Israel
From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership
March 2026 | CWA # 2001

Preetha Renganarayanan

Six major takeaways on the economy, border and internal security and Iran
February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover
February 2026 | CWA # 1986

Preetha Renganarayanan

Focus on Trade, Defense, Energy and Regional Connectivity
February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan
The return of Basant, and what it signifies
February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria
US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency
February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine
The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry
December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26
Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints
December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China
Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US
A New opening, or another cycle?
February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China
PM Keir Starmers visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties
January 2026 | CWA # 1946

Preetha Renganarayanan

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1914

Preetha Renganarayanan

August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
June 2025 | CWA # 1709

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #284-285
Cambodia-Thailand Border Tensions, Protests in the US, and the Indigenous Māori question in New Zealand
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
May 2025 | CWA # 1672

D Suba Chandran

India and Pakistan:
De-escalation and the “New Normal”
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan