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CWA # 1472, 19 September 2024
Conflict Weekly
The War in Ukraine: Russia’s counteroffensive in Kursk

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #246, 19 September 2024, Vol.5, No.38
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Padmashree Anandhan

Russia’s counteroffensive in Kursk
Padmashree Anandhan
 
In the news
On 18 September, the Biden administration stated that it required more information from Ukraine to approve the usage of long-range weapons in Russia. According to the administration, relaxing the restriction might not have a large effect on the ground but trigger “great risk.” The US has allowed Ukraine to use its weapons in a limited manner for cross-border and counter-attacks. However, it has been under pressure from NATO members to let Ukraine decide on the extent of usage of the West-supplied weapons. 

On 14 September, Chair of the NATO Military Committee Admiral Rob Bauer said: “Every nation that is attacked has the right to defend itself. And that right doesn’t stop at the border of your own nation.” Chief of the Czech Armed Forces General Staff, Lieutenant General Karel Řehka said: “We believe that the Ukrainians should decide themselves how to use it… It's important to take into consideration every aspect, including the potential of escalation and other things.”

On 12 September, after a month of Ukraine’s offensive into Kursk, President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed reports about the Kursk. He said: "Everything is going according to our Ukrainian plan." Despite the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk, Russian forces continued to make gains in eastern Ukraine.

On the same day, Russia's Defense Ministry claimed to have captured nearly 63 square kilometres from Ukrainian forces. It claimed to have launched the counteroffensive on 10 September and the recaptured settlements including, Apanasovka, Byakhovo, Vishnevka, Viktorovka, Vnezapnoye, Gordeyevka, Krasnooktyabrskoye, Obukhovka, Snagost, and 10-y Oktyabr. A spokesperson close to the Russian military said: “The Ukrainians have also stopped bringing in new reserves . . . they’ve started to move around less and to dig in more instead.”  

On the same day, Pentagon spokesperson Major General Pat Ryder called Russia’s gains to be "marginal." 

Issues at large
First, Russia’s counteroffensive. Russian counterattack aimed to "open a land route" from Glushkovo to Korenevo (districts in Kursk) to deter the impact on bridges from Ukrainian strikes. This comes as the south of Kursk functions as a logistics point for Russia to resupply and was forced to install temporary bridges to prevent damage from strikes. Once the counteroffensive was launched in the Ukraine-held districts, the protection was ensured and Russia was able to stop Ukraine forces furthering towards Lgov, another town in Kursk located 80 kilometres west across the Seym river. According to the latest assessment of The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces could aim for a temporary split in the Kursk Oblast to form tactical positions ahead of a coordinated operation. Since Russia is yet to gather enough resources for a full-scale attack, the operation seems weak, with a tactical goal to push the Ukrainian forces further east.

Second, Ukraine’s response. Ukraine’s objective in the Kursk incursion was to divert Russian forces from the eastern Ukrainian Donbas front. However, until now it has been unsuccessful as Russia advances in Pokrovsk city in Donetsk Oblast and other districts in the north and east of Ukraine. Earlier in September, Zelensky claimed Russia withdrew 60,000 troops to redeploy in Kursk. However, there have been no clear reports on how many Russian troops, air brigades and marine brigades are operating in the counteroffensive. According to military analysts, despite redeployment, Russia is observed to have needed resources to sustain the operation in Kursk and Donetsk Oblasts. Whereas, Ukraine’s difficulty in countering Russia in the east (Vuhledar and Pokrovsk towns) remains.

Third, the West debate over war escalation. When the debate first began on using West-supplied weapon systems in Russia, neither the US nor Europe provided clear approval. The US continued to maintain an ambiguous stance while NATO and European allies supported Ukraine in using the weapons in defence. This was mainly aimed at preventing the missile and drone targets coming from Russia. Since the Kursk incursion and multiple missiles launched far inside Russia, Ukraine’s demand for permission from the US to use long-range weapons in Russia began and was supported by the NATO allies. However, the US fears an escalation of war. Long-range missiles include the British-led Storm Shadow and the similar French-made SCALP or the US-made Army Tactical Missile System, ATACMS and ongoing Ukraine’s production to develop its long-range weapons. These are already in use, targeting the military hubs and Russian infrastructure in occupied areas. However, the military officials in the US observe that allowing Ukraine to use them inside Russia will not make a difference.
 
In perspective
A gradual escalation of the war. To see if this incursion could be an escalation point or not, it is necessary to look back at previous battles and the counteroffensive history of Ukraine and Russia. When Ukraine lost its spring offensive and the battles of Bakhmut and Aviidivka, it convinced the West to increase its air defence system support to counter Russia’s air strikes. Similarly, Ukraine is attempting to showcase its capability to launch an operation in Kursk and strike further into Russia to pursue long-range weapons to par with Russia’s aerial power. The West could follow the pursuit but to ensure the war does not expand outside Ukraine. 

Second, Russia’s long wait game. Russia’s response to the Kursk incursion was initially viewed as undefended and slow but compared to Ukraine’s response to its eastern offensive, it has been quick to launch a counteroffensive in Kursk. As per the observations, the redeployed Russian units are not massive but it does not want Ukrainian forces furthering. The major objective remains to be capturing the Donbas region and it has managed to progress its eastern offensive despite the Kursk diversion. 

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan, Ayan Datta, Samruddi Pathak, Sayeka Ghosh and Neha Tresa George

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Beijing reaffirms strong ties with Russia ahead of BRICS Summit
On 12 September, Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi met Russian President Vladimir Putin in St Petersburg. Putin stated he was looking forward to China’s participation in the BRICS summit in Kazan and deepening relations with bilateral benefit and equality. Wang said that China and Russia enjoy mutual trust and friendship. The two leaders stressed the importance of strengthening strategic coordination and opposing unilateral actions to meet the aspirations of Global South countries. Expanded BRICS cooperation was discussed during the meeting, with Wang promising China’s support for the Russian chairmanship and the summit’s success. Putin praised the “Six-Point Consensus” issued by China and Brazil on Ukraine, stating that Russia is ready for negotiations toward peace. Putin acclaimed China’s diplomatic policy guided by “big, long-term perspectives and the common future of humanity.” Both sides emphasised commitment to multipolar world development and an international order of justice under international law to meet their shared aspiration for global governance.

China: Defence Minister advocates enhanced military cooperation at Xiangshan forum
On 13 September, China’s Minister of Defence Dong Jun attended the Xiangshan Forum of Beijing, a premier military diplomacy event to strengthen military ties with the neighbouring countries. Addressing delegates from 90 countries and international organisations, Dong stated that major powers should ensure global security and urged them to “abandon a zero-sum mentality and to stop bullying the small and the weak.” He emphasised that China is committed to deepening military relations with developing countries and promoting open cooperation. The forum, themed “Promoting Peace for a Shared Future,” takes place when the US and Chinese militaries are gradually de-escalating tensions. Michael Chase, a senior defence official represented the US. 

Taiwan: US approves USD 228 million worth of military equipment
On 16 September, Reuters reported on the US Department of State approving a military equipment sale worth USD 228 million to Taiwan. The department stated that it would send spare parts for repair, return, and reshipment from its stock. Taiwan’s Ministry of Defence said: “The Chinese Communist’s routinized grey zone intrusions have constricted the training space and response time in our air space and maritime areas, the repair and return of the aircraft parts and accessories agreed to be sold by the United States will help maintain the combat readiness and safety of various types of aircraft equipment of the air force.” 

South Korea: North Korea sends another set of trash balloons 
On 16 September, The Korea Times reported on balloons being launched by North Korea towards South Korea carrying trash. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) detected the balloons travelling toward the northern part of Gyeonggi Province. It stated: “The launch came after the North flew around 50 trash-carrying balloons toward the South from Saturday night to early Sunday, with about 10 trash bundles landing in Gyeonggi Province and Seoul.” 

North Korea: US invests in reconnaissance assets for security after uranium facility disclosure
On 13 September, Yonhap News Agency reported on the US devoting more intelligence and reconnaissance assets to security on the Korean Peninsula. The report came after North Korea disclosed a uranium enrichment facility earlier this week. The White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby stated the US was continuing to monitor North Korea’s ballistic missile technology and programme. Kirby informed that US President Joe Biden had devoted more intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets to the Korean Peninsula in light of North Korean threats. Kirby informed that Biden revitalised a network of alliances in Asia to combat the North Korean threat and that the US was ready for talks with North Korea about the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. US Department of State spokesperson Matthew Miller stated that the US policy towards North Korea had not changed and they were committed to denuclearization. 

Malaysia: Storms hit Penang 
On 18 September, The Straits Times reported on the devastation caused by flash floods and storms in the Penang state of Malaysia. The mayhem led to the destruction of trees, cars, and homes and put people's lives in danger. The authorities have sent volunteers to monitor and arrange for repairs and relief in the respective areas. According to Chief Minister Chow Kon Yeow, the trees were reported to have fallen in over 43 locations. He advised the tourists and people to be cautious.

Myanmar: Military bombs residential base controlled by the TNLA
On 17 September, The Irrawaddy reported on the Myanmar junta's bombing of the residential areas in Hsipaw town, controlled by the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). The attack came against the backdrop of intense fighting with TNLA in the northern Shan state. According to TNLA, a Harbin Y-12 plane dropped over 50 bombs on the residential wards in Hsipaw, killing one civilian. The attack caused a fire in the residential apartments. The local media said that the attack came as a response to the TNLA'a strike on the junta's Infantry Battalion 23 base, outside the Hsipaw town.

South Asia
Pakistan: Army Chief pledges support to law enforcement personnel in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa
On 13 September, the military’s media wing released a statement about Chief of Army Staff, General Asim Munir’s visit to the newly merged Orakzai district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). His visit comes in the backdrop of police protests in the southern region of the district, over the death of an officer by unidentified assailants during a polio drive. He said: “Pak Army will continue to provide all-out support to K-P Police and other LEAs in enabling them to perform their duties in the newly merged districts.” He met with the troops who were a part of the recent counter-terrorism operation in the Torah Valley. In August, about 25 militants were killed by the intelligence-based operations in the valley. Four soldiers were killed, while 11 other militants sustained injuries. He stated that the Army will continue to assist the KP security forces in maintaining security across the province. He said: “The hard-earned peace achieved with nation’s great sacrifice would be maintained at all costs. The sacrifice of our martyrs strengthens our resolve to fight with utmost dedication and spirit of sacrifice.”

Pakistan: Two security personnel shot dead in Mastung
On 13 September, a group of tribesmen shot two security men of Levies Forces dead and three others sustained injuries in the Mastung district. The violence was carried out when the tribesmen blocked the Quetta-Noshki Highway to protest the arrest of a tribal elder’s brother and others. Separately, a roadside blast injured eight security forces in the Takhat area, Kalat district. According to the District Deputy Commissioner, unidentified culprits had fixed an improvised explosive device (IED) on the roadside. All injured personnel were transferred to a local hospital and security forces sealed off the area and launched an investigation. 

India: Foreign Minister claims progress in border negotiations with China
On 13 September, The India Express reported that Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar claimed progress over the military standoff with China along the Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh. According to Jaishankar, about 75 per cent of the “disengagement problems” have been “sorted out,” while he underlined “the increasing militarisation of the border” as a major concern. The standoff has been ongoing for four years, with around 50,000 to 60,000 troops deployed by both sides along the LAC. The recent round of diplomatic talks in Beijing was to “narrow down the differences” and find ways for an early resolution. Similarly, National Security Advisor Ajit Doval’s meeting with Wang Yi in Russia conveyed the imperatives required to complete disengagement in “remaining areas.” Jaishankar earlier termed the India-China relationship “complex.” The BRICS summit, scheduled to take place in Russia, may provide further opportunities for dialogue on this issue.

India: Floods in the Godavari region displace more than 18000 families
On 14 September, The Hindu reported on floods from the Godavari and Sabari rivers situated in the Chittoor Agency, affecting 19,766 families. On 13 September, about 113 villages were submerged and about 4,300 people were relocated to relief camps. In the downstream at Dowleswaram in the Godavari district, about 11 villages were submerged and four National Disaster Force battalions were alerted.

The Middle East and Africa
The UAE: Foreign Minister refuses to support Israel’s “day after the war” without Palestinian State 
On 14 September, according to The Times of Israel, United Arab Emirates (UAE) Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdullah bin Zayed stated that the UAE would not “support the day after the war in Gaza without the establishment of a Palestinian state,” making the country’s participation in a post-war plan for the enclave contingent on an independent Palestine. Bin Zayed’s remark reiterated the UAE’s policy of opposing “any plan aimed at providing cover for the Israeli presence in the Gaza Strip.” 

Israel: IDF strikes Hamas fighters in Gaza school-turned-refugee shelter 
On 14 September, The Times of Israel reported that the IDF carried out an airstrike against Hamas fighters “embedded within a former school in Gaza City.” The armed group’s fighters were using the city’s Shuhada al-Zeitoun School, which is presently functioning as a shelter for displaced Gazans, to plan and conduct attacks against Israeli troops. Although the military added that it mitigated harm to civilians, Palestinian media reported multiple casualties. Furthermore, the IDF accused Hamas of using civilian spaces for “terror.”

Israel: Continuing aerial exchanges between IDF and Hezbollah
On 16 September 2024, The Times of Israel reported that the IDF conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon’s Rab al-Thalathine, Houla, Maroun al-Ras, and Blida regions. On the same day, the Lebanon-based armed group, Hezbollah, fired over ten rockets into northern Israel’s Ramot Naftali and Metula region. Although Israeli air defences intercepted most of the rockets, one of them damaged a building. There were no casualties.  On 14 September, Hezbollah launched over 60 rockets into northern Israel’s Safed region. The armed group stated that the attacks were responses to the Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon the previous day. No Israelis were injured, though the attacks sparked fires in some areas, and Israeli air defences intercepted multiple rockets. On the same day, the Israel Defence Forces targeted the Hezbollah rocket launchers used in the attacks with drone and air strikes, destroying one launcher. Separately, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) struck two buildings in southern Lebanon’s Blida town, claiming that one of them housed Hezbollah members. Additionally, the IDF stated that its air defences intercepted a Hezbollah drone in northern Israel’s Western Galilee region. 

Israel: Sinwar congratulates Houthis on central Israel strike 
On 16 September, Reuters reported that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar congratulated Yemen’s Houthi armed group for successfully striking “the heart of the enemy entity” with a missile. On 15 September, a ballistic missile fired by the armed group struck central Israel’s capital, Tel Aviv. The missile struck an open area, but nine Israelis were injured while running for shelter. Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, stated that the armed group “should have known by now that we charge a heavy price for any attempt to harm us.” On the same day, Hamas welcomed the Houthi attack, calling it a “natural response to the Zionist entity’s aggression against our Palestinian people.” 

Israel: Pager attack on Hezbollah
On 17 September, Al Jazeera reported that hundreds of pagers used by Hezbollah simultaneously exploded, killing nine people and injuring over 2,700 members of the group. An anonymous Hezbollah member called the incident the group’s “biggest security breach” since 7 October. The armed group blamed Israel for the explosions, stating that the Jewish State would get “its fair punishment” for conducting the attacks. On the same day, The Times of Israel reported that although Hezbollah had imported the pagers five months ago for secure communication among its members, Israel’s intelligence agency, The Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations (known popularly as The Mossad), intercepted the pagers before they were shipped. The Mossad then placed Pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN), an explosive chemical, on the devices’ batteries and denoted them by remotely raising the batteries’ temperature. 

Mali: JNIM attack on military training school
On 17 September, armed men targeted a military training school in Malian capital Bamako. The authorities blamed “a group of terrorists” for the attack. Later, an al-Qaeda- linked group, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM), claimed responsibility for the attack. Several Malian security officials were killed in the attack. However, the number is unclear. Army chief-of-staff Oumar Diarra stated: “The terrorists have been neutralised. The sweep in continuing.”

Sudan: Starvation “everywhere,” says WHO chief
On 17 September, the World Health Organization (WHO) told BBC that starvation in war-stricken Sudan “is almost everywhere.” WHO director-general Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus stated: "The situation in Sudan is very alarming... the massive displacement - it's now the largest in the world, and, of course, famine.” He added that the war has displaced 12 million people and that global attention to Sudan was “really low.” He commented: "Imagine: destruction, displacement, diseases everywhere, and now famine.” He informed that close to 25 million people, half of Sudan’s population “need support.”
 
Europe and The Americas
Europe: Storm Boris triggers massive floods
On 17 September, the BBC reported on the devastation caused by Storm Boris in central Europe. Poland, Austria, the Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary were the worst affected countries. Kordian Kolbiarz, the mayor of the Nysa city in Poland called for the evacuation of all 44,000 residents. The country declared a state of natural disaster. Donald Tusk, Prime Minister of Poland assigned one billion zloty for the victims and applied for the EU relief funds. The number of deaths rose to 16 with seven in Romania. Austria, the Czech Republic and Poland also saw casualties. Slovakia was affected by the overflowing Danube River with water levels exceeding nine metres. Meanwhile, the Czech Republic received the highest amount of rainfall. In Austria, the Ministry of Climate allocated EUR 300 million as recovery funds. The intense rainfall was supposedly due to climate change and atmospheric pressure. The weather forecasts indicated that the storm was expected to move further south into Italy to the Emilia-Romagna region. 

France: Protest emerges in support of rape victim
On 14 September, The Guardian reported on widespread protests across France in support of a rape victim. Gisele Pelicot, the woman in question was drugged and raped by over 80 men for over a decade, at the behest of her husband. In response, feminist groups organized protests around 30 cities in the country. Protesters informed they were rallying against the rape culture prevalent in France. They claimed that the case of Pelicot would raise awareness over the issue. According to Deborah Poirier, a protestor, the case was “the height of horror.” Pelicot had been praised for her courage in demanding the trial to be held in public, rather than behind closed doors. Dominique Pelicot had pleaded guilty earlier and is facing a trial alongside 50 other men accused of raping Gisele.

Ecuador: Noboa seeks constitutional amendment to allow foreign military bases
On 16 September, Daniel Noboa, the President of Ecuador, posted on X that he was seeking a constitutional amendment to allow the establishment of foreign military bases in Ecuador. In the constitution of Ecuador, Article 5 prevents interference of foreign forces in the country. In January 2024, Noboa announced that Ecuador had been fighting an internal war due to gang violence and drug traffickers. Noboa gave a speech from Manta military base where he said that he needs to rebuild Ecuador which is being turned into “a cradle for drug trafficking.” Manta military base used to be operated by the US until its troops were ordered to withdraw in 2009 by then-President Rafael Correa. 

Peru: Wildfires claims 15 lives
On 16 September, Peruvian authorities informed that the wildfires which started in July, spread over an area of more than 3,000 hectares, have claimed 15 lives and left 98 people injured. Gustavo Adrianzén, the Prime Minister of Peru, said that the fires started due to human activity and amplified due to winds. Around 1,800 people have been affected by the wildfires.

The US: Sanctions on Chinese firms allegedly contributing to Pakistan’s missile program
On 12 September, the US Department of State imposed sanctions on several Chinese companies and a research institution over suspected material and assistance contribution to the Pakistan ballistic missile program. The entities were sanctioned for providing goods and equipment to test rocket motors for Pakistan’s Shaheen-3 and Ababeel systems. The Beijing Research Institute of Automation for Machine Building Industry and three China-based firms are included in the list. US Department of State spokesperson Matthew Miller reiterated the US commitment to counter the proliferation activities. He stated: “The United States will continue to act against proliferation and associated procurement activities of concern, wherever they occur.” Chinese Embassy spokesperson Liu Pengyu responded: “China firmly opposes unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction” without an international legal basis. 

About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh, Samruddi Pathak and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS.  Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad.

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