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CWA # 1477
Conflict Weekly
From Gaza to Lebanon: A New Phase of War in the Middle East

  IPRI Team
26 September 2024

Conflict Weekly #247, 26 September 2024, Vol.5, No.39
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Ayan Datta

Israel’s new phase of war against Hezbollah 
Ayan Datta
 
In the news
On 25 September, the US, Australia, Canada, the EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the UK and Qatar jointly called for a “21-day ceasefire across the Lebanon-Israel border” between Israel and Hezbollah. The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that Lebanon’s government “must have full control of its weapons” throughout the country.” He supported “all efforts to strengthen the Lebanese Armed Forces” and the return of civilians to northern Israel and southern Lebanon.

On 24 September, Hezbollah fired 300 rockets into northern Israel’s Haifa, Safed, Nazareth, Yokne’am and Galilee regions. Separately, the IDF killed three Hezbollah commanders, including the armed group’s Head of Rocket and Missile Division Ibrahim Qubaisi.

On 23 September, the IDF conducted an airstrike in Beirut, targeting Hezbollah leader Ali Karaki. However, the attack failed. Separately, Israel’s Minister of Defence, Yoav Gallant, stated: “We are deepening our attacks in Lebanon, the sequence of operations continues, and will continue until we achieve our goal of returning the residents of the north” to their homes. On the same day, Hezbollah fired rockets into northern Israel’s Haifa and Nazareth cities. 

Separately, US Vice President Kamala Harris expressed her commitment to “prevent the conflict from escalating and reaching a diplomatic solution that would allow populations on both sides of the border.”

On 20 September, the IDF killed over 15 Hezbollah leaders in an airstrike in southern Beirut, including the Head of Hezbollah’s Operations Unit and Commander of its Radwan Forces, Ibrahim Aqil, and Ahmed Wahbi, who supervised the armed group’s missile attacks on Israel. Furthermore, the attack killed five Radwan Force Commanders, its Chief of Operations, Hassan Yussef Abad Alssatar and its Chief of Staff, Hussein Ahmad Dahraj. The IDF stated that the leaders were planning a ground invasion of Israel similar to Hamas’ 7 October attack. 

Issues at large
First, Israel’s new phase of the war. Between October 2023 and December 2024, the ISF had four divisions (40,000-60,000) active in Gaza. With its massive ground operations, Israel rapidly destroyed Hamas as a conventional military force and compelled it to use irregular attacks and guerrilla tactics. However, during the same time, Hezbollah's attacks intensified, displacing 60,000 Israelis from the country’s northern border and necessitating a shift in Israel's strategic focus. In June 2024, Netanyahu declared the most intense phase of the Gaza war over and shifted focus to Hezbollah. Consequently, only 10,000 Israeli soldiers are currently active in Gaza. On 17 September, Israel's Institute for Intelligence and Special Operations (known popularly as the Mossad) conducted explosions of thousands of Hezbollah's pagers and walkie-talkies, killing 12 leaders and injuring 27,000. On 18 September, Israel made the shift official, with Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant stating that the IDF was shifting "forces, resources, and energy" towards the Hezbollah front.

Second, the US-Israel-Hezbollah conflict over ceasefires and the return of displaced people. For the US and its European and Arab partners, Israel and Hezbollah should agree to a 21-day ceasefire, Hezbollah should retreat from the Israel-Lebanon border; the Lebanese Armed Forces should enter southern Lebanon to act as a buffer, and the peacekeepers of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) should be strengthened, and displaced civilians on both sides (80,000 in Lebanon and 60,000 from Israel) to return to their homes. For Hezbollah, there shall be no ceasefire until Israel agrees to a ceasefire with Hamas. For Israel, Hezbollah shall be pushed back at least up to the Litani River (20 miles north of the Israel-Lebanon border) through intensification and expansion of attacks. 

Third, the international response. The UN's position is based on Security Council Resolutions 1052 and 1701, which were adopted during the previous Israel-Lebanon wars of 1996 and 2006, which represent the global consensus on resolving the conflict. For the UN, Israel should stop its attacks, Lebanon’s government should disarm Hezbollah, and Lebanon’s Armed Forces, and UNFIL troops should be strengthened through international efforts.

In perspective
First, Hezbollah is weakened but will survive as a military formation. Although Israel successfully destroyed Hezbollah’s military chain of command, the armed group continues to have missile and rocket launching capabilities. Furthermore, Hezbollah enjoys massive support in Lebanon’s Shia-dominated south, where it uses the region's mountainous, heavily forested terrain and civilian homes to conceal its weaponry. 

Second, the elusive ceasefire and Isarel’s Hezbollah strategy. While the US wants Israel and Hezbollah to agree to a ceasefire, the latter refuses to comply until Israel agrees to a ceasefire with Gaza. Israel, on the other hand, has rejected both the US and Hezbollah proposals and adopted a strategy of de-escalation through gradual escalation, which is likely to fail given Hezbollah's embeddedness in Lebanon’s politics and society. 

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan, Ayan Datta, Samruddi Pathak, Sayeka Ghosh and Neha Tresa George

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Sanctions on nine Pentagon contractors over Taiwan arms deal
On 18 September, SCMP reported that China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs imposed sanctions on nine Pentagon contractors. The sanctions were over the US Department of State's approval of a USD 28 million ‘return, repair and reshipment’ package to sell spare parts and related equipment for F-16V fighter aircraft to Taiwan. The nine contractors include Sierra Nevada Corporation, Stick Rudder Enterprises, Cubic Corporation, S3 Aerospace, TCOM LP, TextOre, Planate Management Group, ACT1 Federal, and Exovera. The sanctions include freezing assets and properties owned by the companies in China. Additionally, Chinese groups and individuals are prohibited from transactions with these companies. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson, Lin Jian, stated that the US weapons sale to Taiwan infringed upon China’s sovereignty and security interests, damaged China-US relations, and violated the one-China principle. Lin urged the US to stop arming Taiwan and undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.

Taiwan: Border security lapses after Chinese incursion to be rectified
On 22 September, SCMP reported that the Taiwanese government has been increasing efforts to prevent its maritime borders from being breached. The announcement came after two incidents wherein mainland Chinese men used small boats to reach the Taiwanese coast. According to the Taiwan Coast Guard, the boats succeeded in sailing undetected into waters near the Taiwanese capital Taipei. Taiwan authorities treat secret entries by mainland Chinese nationals as illegal. The Premier of Taiwan Cho Jung-tai ordered a review of the incidents. He emphasised that the Coast Guard and the Taiwanese Armed Forces shall fulfil their responsibilities to ensure the Island’s security. 

Japan: Prime Minister condemns Russian airspace violation
On 23 September, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida condemned the intrusion of a Russian military aircraft into Japanese airspace over the north Rebun Island, Hokkaido. The Russian aircraft violated Japanese airspace three times. He termed the incident “extremely regrettable.” He added that the country is committed to protecting sovereignty and urged Russia to prevent future violations. 

Japan: Call on China to ensure safety of Japanese nationals
On 23 September, Japanese State Minister for Foreign Affairs Yoshifumi Tsuge met with Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong in Beijing. They discussed the knife attack incident which left a ten-year-old student injured in a Japanese school in Shenzhen. Tsuge appealed to China to ensure the safety of Japanese nationals and probe into the motive behind the incident. He additionally sought measures against anti-Japanese posts on Chinese social media and to protect Japanese schools in China. Sun regretted the incident and promised to support the family of the victim while refusing to delve into the attack's motives. Tsuge assured the Japanese expatriates that children’s safety would be considered a top priority. The head of the Japanese Chamber of Commerce in China, Tetsuro Honma, echoed the worry and expressed the anxiety faced by Japanese residents in China.

South Korea: US nuclear-powered submarine arrives to replenish supplies
On 23 September, Yonhap News Agency reported that a US nuclear-powered submarine arrived at the South Korean Navy base in Busan to replenish supplies. The South Korean Navy announced plans to conduct friendly exchange activities with the crew members of the USS Vermont. The arrival of the USS Vermont comes amidst increased tensions in the Korean Peninsula over North Korean missile tests. 

South Korea: North Korean trash balloon campaign causes serious damage to society, says JCS
On 23 September, The Korea Times quoted the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCF) that North Korea’s trash balloon campaign has caused serious damage to the South Korean people. The JCS further said: “While there may be inconveniences and difficulties caused by North Korea's trash balloons, our fundamental measure to eradicate them is to show that 'there is nothing to gain for the enemy. Still, if danger is caused to the safety of our citizens or if the North is assessed to have crossed the line, our military will take stern military measures.” The JCS spokesperson Colonel Lee Sung-jun commented: “It is a message issued given that North Korea's grey zone provocations are extending into the long term, and causing inconvenience and anxiety among the public.” 

Papua New Guinea: Violence in Porgera kills 32, demands for changes at peak
On 20 September, RNZ reported on increased demands for systematic changes in Papua New Guinea following tribal violence in Porgera, killing at least 32 people. According to the police, the rival clan leaders in the Enga Province of Papua New Guinea have agreed to cease fighting and engage in peace talks. A Member of the Parliament of Papua New Guinea, Dan Polye, stated that the local-level government in Porgera had collapsed. According to Polye, the significant deficiencies in leadership and governance shall be addressed by implementing national-level policies. He added that the collapse of the public service system led to the failure of capacity, upskilling and management, which were essential in addressing the crisis. Polye asserted that citizens needed to be evacuated from Special Mining Lease (SML) areas to avoid illegal mining that caused tribal rivalries.

South Asia
Pakistan: China suggests counter-terror cooperation
On 19 September, the government revealed to The Express Tribune China’s interest in establishing an anti-terrorism cooperation agreement and joint security company under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). According to the report, China proposed leftover projects related to railways, copper mines, LNG terminals, special economic zones and road infrastructure of Phase-I be included in Phase-II of CPEC. During Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s visit to Beijing, both sides emphasized their “zero tolerance” and acknowledged the need to strengthen their defence cooperation against terrorism. According to The Express Tribune, a Pakistani delegation is set to visit Beijing next week to attend the Global Transport Forum on 26 September and settle issues obstructing the initiation of the Mainline-I project of Phase I.

Pakistan: Legislative elections in Jammu and Kashmir unacceptable, says President Ali Zardari
On 19 September, The News International quoted President Asif Ali Zardari rejecting upcoming legislative assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir. Speaking with a delegation of migrants from Jammu and Kashmir in Pakistan at the Aiwan-e-Sadr, Zardari deemed the elections unacceptable for the people of Kashmir and urged the international community to hold India responsible for human rights violations in the region. He called for a plebiscite to be conducted under the UNSC resolutions. He termed it an Indian strategy of consolidating its occupation in the region and alleged that India was trying to alter the demography by making Kashmiri Muslims a minority. He said: “Those who are comparing Azad Kashmir with the India-occupied territory of Jammu and Kashmir must bear in mind the fact that the people of occupied Kashmir don’t have the right to offer prayers.”

Pakistan: Eight security personnel die in separate attacks across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
On 21 September, Dawn quoted the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) confirming the death of eight security forces in separate incidents across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP). It stated that six security personnel and five militants were killed during a fire exchange in the Lady Area of South Waziristan. On 19 September, it stated that at least seven terrorists were found infiltrating the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in North Waziristan. However, the frontier corps were able to “surround them and eliminate all seven of them.” On the same day, an official was killed during a cross-border fire exchange between Afghan and Pakistan forces at the Ghulam Khan border in Waziristan. In Bannu, a sub-inspector of the Intelligence Bureau was killed by unidentified assailants.

Pakistan: TTP denies role in diplomatic convoy attack in Swat
On 24 September, the Counter-Terrorism Department of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa police filed an FIR against the unknown assailants involved in the murder of a policeman escorting a diplomatic convoy. The FIR has been filed under sections 324, 353 and 427 of the Pakistan Penal Code, sections 3, 4 and 5 of the Explosive Substances Act, and Section 7 of the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA). However, according to the AFP, the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has denied its involvement in the attack. TTP stated that it had “nothing to do with the attack.”

Bangladesh: Army chief expresses support to interim government
On 24 September, during an interview with Reuters, Army Chief Waker-Uz- Zaman vowed to support the interim government led by Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus. He expressed solidarity with the government stating: “Come what may, so that he can accomplish his mission.” He emphasised removing political influence in the military and highlighted Yunus’ efforts to reform the police, judicial and financial institutions.

Bangladesh: Protest against violence in Rangamati and Khagrachhari
On 22 September, The Chittagong Hill Tracts Peace Accord Implementation Movement rallied against the attack on property and civilians in Khagrachhari and Rangamati. They protested the killings, shootings, arson attacks, and attacks on shops, homes and places of worship in Shahbagh, Dhaka. During the rally, a professor at Dhaka University and joint coordinator of the movement, Khairul Islam Chowdhury said that the threat to Bangladesh’s sovereignty could be tackled when the “issues in the Chittagong Hill Tracts” are resolved. He highlighted a state-backed peace accord signed in 1997 and that “the accord has not been implemented, the problems persist.” He added: “If the hill people are not safe, neither will Bangladesh be.” The new wave of protests came after three people were killed in a clash between the Bengali settlers and the indigenous CHT tribes on 19 September.

Bangladesh: Young protest against fossil fuel financing
On 21 September, more than 500 youth climate activists protested against fossil fuel financing worldwide. The protests were led by the Activista Bangladesh, a youth network. People from 19 districts and other local youth organisations participated in the protest. Speaking before the National Press Club in Dhaka, they called the world leaders to cease fossil fuel financing esteemed at USD 650 billion annually and divert these funds to address climate-related damage and loss, to pave the way for a sustainable future. They commented on how these financial practices have repercussions on the youth, farmers, women and marginalised communities of the global south. 

India: Alert on potential influx of 900 militants from Myanmar
On 20 September, a high alert was put in place in Manipur state of India after intelligence reports revealed a probable influx of 900 Kuki militants from neighbouring Myanmar. Manipur's security adviser stated: “The border police have been alerted, and combing operations are underway.” The Kuki Students’ Organisation (KSO) denied the information and accused the advisor of failing to ensure the safety of the community.

The Middle East and Africa
Iraq: Islamic Resistance targets Israeli military
On 22 September, Reuters reported that the armed group Islamic Resistance in Iraq conducted a drone strike towards the IDF’s Golani Observation Base in the West Bank’s Jordan Valley region. Separately, the IDF used air defence systems to intercept the drone. The Shia armed group began launching drones and rockets towards Israel on 7 October 2023 in solidarity with Hamas.

Egypt: Military aid to Somalia amidst tensions with Ethiopia
On 23 September, Al Jazeera reported that an Egyptian warship carrying major weaponry was delivered to Somalia. It included anti-aircraft guns and artillery. Egypt’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated: “A shipment of Egyptian military aid has arrived in the Somali capital Mogadishu to support and build the capabilities of the Somali army.” It added: The shipment “reaffirms Egypt’s ongoing central role in supporting Somali efforts to develop the national capabilities necessary to fulfil the aspirations of the Somali people for security, stability, and development.” This is the second round of military aid to Somalia from Egypt. Ties between Egypt and Somalia grew amidst shared mistrust of Ethiopia over the GERD and Somaliland tensions, respectively. 

Tunisia: Protests against President Saied ahead of election
On 23 September, Africanews reported a second week of protest in Tunis. The protest was against President Kais Saied, accusing him of enforcing authoritarian rule and suppressing the competition. The protest erupted after introducing a new bill limiting the administrative court’s power over electoral disputes. The tensions have increased after the electoral commission rejected the reinstation of three presidential candidates. Tunisia has scheduled its presidential election for 6 October. 

Sudan: UN calls for urgent ceasefire amidst RSF attack on El-Fasher
On 23 September, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres raised alarms on the latest attack by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on the city of El-Fasher. Guterres called on the RSF leader General Mohamed Hamdan' Dagalo to end the attack. He urged for an urgent ceasefire as the humanitarian conditions worsened throughout the country. On 22 September, Sudan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hussein Awad Ali spoke at the UN summit for the future. He denounced the “double standards and selectivity” in implementing the principles of the UN Charter. He stated: “The stability of our international order is underpinned on the respect of the UN Charter, especially the non-interference and internal affairs of other countries, the respect of the state sovereignty and its territorial integrity and the non-use of force in international relations, it's regrettable to see such double standards and selectivity in implementing these principles.” The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) repeatedly accuses the UAE of supporting the RSF with weapons. 

Tanzania: Opposition leaders arrested for plotting banned protests
On 24 September, two leaders and 12 members of Tanzania’s opposition party, Chadema, were arrested after carrying out a banned protest. Chadema party stated that its chairman Freeman Mbowe was arrested while he was preparing to “lead a peaceful protest.” The protests were staged against the alleged recent killings and abductions of opposition members by the government forces. The previous week, President Samia Suluhu Hassan commented referring to the protest that any moves endangering law and order would not be tolerated. 

Ghana: Protesters arrested for denouncing government’s economic policies
On 24 September, Ghana’s police arrested several protesters who were demonstrating against economic mismanagement and illegal mining by the government. The police accused the protesters of attacking the officers. The protest was set up by the group, Democracy Hub. It comes ahead of Ghana’s presidential elections scheduled for December. The current protest adds to the series of protests ongoing in the country over the economic crisis with inflation reaching above 54 per cent. 

Senegal: Bodies found on a boat along the migrant route
On 24 September, Senegal’s military found 30 bodies on a boat along the migrant route off the coast of Dakar. According to the military, the origin of the boat and the total death toll are unclear. This incident came days after a boat travelling to the Canary Islands with 89 people capsized off the coast of the country, killing dozens. The route from Africa to the Canary Islands is considered one of the deadliest in the world. According to the UN, thousands die while trying to cross the route each year. 

Europe and The Americas
The EU: WTO case against China’s dairy subsidies investigation
On 23 September, the South China Morning Post reported on the WTO case filed by the European Commission against China’s dairy subsidies investigation. The case concerns an anti-subsidy inquiry by China’s Ministry of Commerce into milk, cream, and cheese products under the EU’s giant common agricultural policy. Additionally, the inquiry targets national-level programmes in several EU member states. The probe is considered as a retaliation to the EU’s anti-subsidy probe into Chinese EVs. EU trade commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said: “The Chinese investigation on EU dairy is based on questionable allegations and insufficient evidence, therefore we will continue to challenge it vigorously in all available venues while calling on China to bring it immediately to an end and stressed that these investigations are unwarranted, are based on questionable allegations, and lack sufficient evidence thus called for these investigations to be terminated and informed the Chinese side that the EU will do its utmost to defend the interests of its industries.”

Ukraine: Attack on Russia’s arms depots in Krasnodar 
On 21 September, The Kyiv Independent reported on the Ukraine Armed Forces (UAF) missile strike on two Russian arms depots. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine confirmed the attack on the Tikhoretsk weapons depot in Krasnodar Krai city. The UAF added that a Russian Podlet radar system which aided air defence of the arsenal and an echelon that delivered at least 2,000 tons of ammunition were destroyed. The head of Ukraine’s Centre for Countering Disinformation, Andrii Kovalenko, stated that a depot, containing artillery shells, ammunition for Smerch rocket launchers, and North Korea-made K23 missiles, was destroyed. The General Staff of Ukraine informed the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) of a missile strike on the 23rd arsenal of the Main Artillery Directorate of Russia’s Ministry of National Defence in the Tver Oblast. SBU additionally informed that a missile strike was launched on the Shaykovka military airfield in Kaluga Oblast where TU-22M strategic aircraft used to attack Ukraine were stored.  

Russia: Difficult position for Ukrainian forces in Sudzha direction
On 19 September, Reuters reported that Russia had captured two villages in the western Kursk region. According to Apti Alaudinov of the Akhmat Special Forces, Russia had gained Nikolayevo-Darino and Darino. He noted that the Russian forces had moved their frontline as they were advancing in eastern Ukraine. The villages lie 15 kilometres from the former front lines of Ukrainian troops during their Kursk incursion. The control of these villages would give an upper hand to the Russian army to attack Sverdlikovo, a prime logistical centre of Ukrainian forces. This came amidst Russia’s strong counteroffensive against Ukraine’s Kursk incursion in August.

Italy: Storm Boris causes havoc in northern regions
On 19 September, police in the northern Italian region of Emilia-Romagna reported that at least two people went missing and more than 1,000 people had been evacuated amidst the storm Boris. The lack of preparedness of Italian authorities has raised questions on the country’s infrastructure to deal with the storm. In May 2023, 17 people were killed in the Emilia-Romagna due to heavy rains. Italy is among Europe’s climate risk spots. In 2024, it experienced pangs of unprecedented heatwaves, drought, wildfires, storms and severe flooding. The European Commission has announced a relief fund of EUR ten billion for the flood victims. 

France: Two men killed in the police operation in New Caledonia
On 20 September, The Guardian reported on the death of two men in New Caledonia during a police operation to detain activists involved in the unrest in May. French authorities in New Caledonia announced an extended curfew and banned gatherings and travel across the archipelago from 6 pm to 6 am, fearing protest by the indigenous Kanak people. The latest violence began on 13 May in response to attempts by President Emmanuel Macron to amend the French constitution and change the voting list of New Caledonia, marginalising Kanaks. 13 people, mostly Kanaks, died in the protest. 

Bolivia: Violent street clashes 
On 22 September, supporters of Evo Morales, the former President of Bolivia, and supporters of Luis Arce, the current President of Bolivia, along with security forces clashed with each other in the capital La Paz. This is the second similar incident in the country. Supporters of Morales began protesting after Arce made a claim on national TV that Morales tried to overthrow his government. Both leaders have shown their intent to run for the presidential elections in 2025. 

Mexico: Hurricane John hit southern regions
On 24 September, hurricane John struck southern parts of Mexico causing heavy rainfall. Starting off as a storm, it gained momentum and transformed into a Hurricane. Mexican authorities classified it as a Category 3 hurricane, recording a 190-kilometre-per-hour speed. Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the President of Mexico, stated: “Seek higher ground, protect yourselves and do not forget that life is the most important thing.” The governor of Oaxaca said that the state authorities have 3,000 people, set up 80 shelters, and mobilised 1,000 military to address the emergency. 

The Americas: Hurricane Helene to hit parts of the US, Mexico and Cuba
On 23 September, authorities of Mexico and Cuba issued a warning after a series of storms merged to form a hurricane, Helene. The National Hurricane Center has classified Helene as a Category 3 hurricane, recording a 185-kilometre-per-hour speed. Heavy rainfall is forecasted in western parts of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, eastern Mexico, and the southeastern US. The Atlantic hurricane season starts on 1 June and ends on 30 November. Helene is the eighth hurricane of this season. However, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted that there will be more Atlantic hurricanes this season because of warming ocean temperatures. 

About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh, Samruddi Pathak and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS.  Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad.

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