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IPRI Team
10 October 2024 |
Conflict Weekly #248&249, 10 October 2024, Vol.5, No.41 & 42
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI
Ayan Datta and Anu Maria Joseph
Israel’s Lebanon invasion and Iran’s missile barrage
Ayan Datta
In the news
On 1 October, Iran launched around 180 missiles into Israel in retaliation against Israel’s recent assassinations of Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leaders, killing a Palestinian man in the West Bank’s Jericho City. Israel intercepted most of the US, the UK, France, and Jordan’s assistance. However, an Iranian missile struck Israel’s Nevatim Air Base. Iranian officials had privately informed the US before launching the attacks.
On the same day, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, called Iran’s attack “a severe and dangerous escalation” to which Israel would respond “wherever, whenever and however” it chose.
On the same day, Hezbollah fired a missile into Israel’s Kfar Qassam village. Separately, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, stating: “An all-out war must be avoided in Lebanon at all costs, and the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Lebanon must be respected.”
On 30 September, Israel’s ground forces launched “limited, localised and targeted raids” against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon using the IDF’s 98th Paratroopers Division (12000, 14000 soldiers) and 7th Armoured Brigade (3,000 to 5,000). An anonymous Israeli official stated that the ground operations would be limited in size and scope compared to Israel’s war against Hezbollah in 2006, aiming only to destroy Hezbollah’s infrastructure along the Israel-Lebanon border. Separately, the IDF destroyed a Hezbollah missile storage facility in Beirut using an airstrike.
On the same day, US President Joe Biden expressed opposition to Israel’s operations and called for a ceasefire.
On 28 September, the IDF killed the Deputy Head of Hezbollah’s Central Council, Nabil Kaouk, in an airstrike.
On 27 September, the Israel Defence Forces killed Hezbollah’s General Secretary, Hassan Nasrallah, chief of Hezbollah’s drone operations, Mohammad Surour, and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Deputy Commander, Abbas Nilforoushan in an airstrike at Hezbollah’s headquarters in Beirut.
Issues at large
First, an overview of Israel-Hezbollah wars. During the Israel-Lebanon War of 1982, Iran-backed Shia clerics founded Hezbollah to defeat Israel’s occupation of Lebanon’s capital Beirut. Although Hezbollah forced the IDF to withdraw from Beirut, Israel continued to occupy parts of southern Lebanon. In 1993, Israel launched “Operation Accountability” to prevent Hezbollah from establishing a support base in southern Lebanon. Despite the attack, Hezbollah continued to maintain a presence in southern Lebanon and began firing rockets into Israel. In April 1996, Israel launched “Operation Grapes of Wrath” in Lebanon to force Hezbollah north of central Lebanon’s Litani River and deter it from launching rockets. Israel's operation failed, and Hezbollah began carrying out guerilla warfare against Israel, forcing the IDF to largely withdraw from southern Lebanon in 2000, except for the 22 square kilometre Shebaa Farms area. In 2006, Hezbollah kidnapped and took two IDF soldiers hostage, leading to Israel’s attack on the armed group. Although the war remained inconclusive, Hezbollah claimed victory because it survived Israel’s attack, with then General Secretary Hassan Nasrallah holding a victory speech.
Second, recent tensions between Israel and Iran. According to the Foundation for Defence of Democracies, Iran encouraged Hamas and Hezbollah to attack Israel. Realising Iran’s role of using proxies, Israel attacked Iran’s Consulate in Damascus on 1 April, killing IRGC Major General Mohammad Reza Zahedi. On 13 April, Iran responded by launching 300 missiles and drones towards Israel to deter the latter from assassinating Iranian leaders. However, on 4 June, an IDF airstrike killed an IRGC military advisor in Syria’s Aleppo, escalating the bilateral tensions. Furthermore, Israel promised to respond to the barrage with a larger attack and fired a missile that landed near Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility, with no response from Iran. On 31 July, Israel allegedly killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, causing Iran to promise a retaliation at a time of their choosing.
Third, calls for ceasefire and realities. For the UN and the US, Israel should agree to a ceasefire with Hezbollah and not escalate against Iran, Lebanon’s government should disarm Hezbollah, and Lebanon’s Armed Forces and United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) troops should be strengthened through international efforts. However, Israel wants to counter Iran’s attacks with a larger strike and push Hezbollah beyond the Litani River. Furthermore, the US provides arms shipments to Israel irrespective of its behaviour towards Hezbollah and Iran.
In perspective
First, Israel’s Hezbollah problem. Although Israel decisively won its wars against Arab states in 1948, 1967, and 1973 and successfully disarmed the PLO during the Oslo Accords, it has had a troubled history with Hezbollah, failing to defeat and deter it despite conducting operations in 1993, 1996 and 2006. However, this time, with its leadership and Iranian advisors killed, Hezbollah will face greater difficulties defending against Israel.
Second, Iran’s second barrage against Israel reflects the failure of its strategic restraint towards Israel. While Iran expected to encircle Israel preoccupied with Hamas and Hezbollah, Israel sensed Iran’s weak deterrence capabilities and continued to assassinate IRGC, Hamas, and Hezbollah leaders. If Israel retaliates to Iran’s strike, tit-for-tat missile exchanges can be expected.
Sudan: SAF’s bid to recapture Khartoum
Anu Maria Joseph
In the news
On 30 September, the UAE accused the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) of attacking the residence of its ambassador to Sudan. The UAE condemned the attack as a “heinous” one. The SAF has continuously accused the UAE of supporting the RSF in the war.
On the same day, the SAF denied the accusations and blamed its rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for the same.
On the same day, the UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated: “The UAE has called on the army to assume full responsibility for this cowardly act.” It described the attack as a “flagrant violation of the fundamental principle of the inviolability of diplomatic premises.” Meanwhile, the SAF accused the RSF of carrying out a “shameful and cowardly act.”
On 26 September, the SAF launched a major offensive against the RSF in the capital Khartoum. According to Al Jazeera, four people were killed and 14 were wounded.
On 25 September, the UN during the General Assembly called for “immediate steps to be taken to protect civilians, scale up humanitarian funding and access, and end the fighting once and for all.”
Issues at large
First, the prolonged civil war in Sudan. The civil war in Sudan has been prolonged for 18 months and an end to the war seems elusive. It is not anymore a rivalry between two military factions, the SAF and the RSF. The war has geographically expanded from Khartoum to the cities of Bahri, Omdurman, Wad Madani and Port Sudan and the states of Darfur and Kordofan. The war has evolved into ethnic lines with the RSF and the SAF aligning with Arab and non-Arab ethnic militias. Ethnic links have intensified the conflict, putting the Darfur states once again vulnerable to a massive humanitarian disaster. The war has killed nearly 20,000 and internally displaced ten million. While SAF has aligned with the rebel group including SPLM-N, the RSF has been targeting the Masalit community in Darfur. The UN has expanded the arms embargo on Sudan. However, despite the embargo, the weapons supplied to both warring parties have never been disrupted. A recent report by Human Rights Watch said that the RSF and the SAF have been using armed drones, drone jammers, anti-tank guided missiles, truck-mounted multi-barrel rocket launchers and motor munitions. The weapons were produced by companies registered in China, Iran, Russia, Serbia and the UAE. Besides, nine rounds of ceasefire attempts and peace talks led by actors including the US and Saudi Arabia have failed. Although the warring parties always committed to the international efforts to bring an end to the violence, they seldom complied with the agreed terms.
Second, the SAF's bid to recapture Khartoum. The SAF claims to be the legitimate government of Sudan, although it captured power through a coup in 2021, agreeing on a civilian transition. The UN has partly consented to SAF's legitimacy claims. Although the SAF shifted its centre to Port Sudan, losing Khartoum to the RSF has threatened the SAF's legitimacy claims. Capturing Khartoum and its twin cities gave the RSF a major advantage positioning its upper hand. Following months of lull in violence, in August, the SAF began its bid to recapture Khartoum by encircling pocket regions.
Third, the UAE's alleged support to RSF. Since the beginning of the war, the UAE has been allegedly supporting the RSF with weapons. The UAE has been supplying weapons to the RSF through the smuggling routes in Chad. UAE's close ties with the RSF are attributed to its economic interests. The UAE leases several land and farming areas in the country. International Holding Company (IHC) and Jenan Investment, the two largest companies in UAE, are leasing 50,000 hectares of land in Sudan. The UAE is allegedly supporting the RSF for political support to continue its activities. Unlike the SAF, the RSF’s disregard for human rights is a practical advantage for the UAE to achieve its interests.
In perspective
The SAF’s new offensive with a bid to recapture Khartoum has shifted the events of the war after a break to violence. However, recapturing the capital is an uneasy task for the SAF. The RSF controls Khartoum's twin cities of Omdurman and Bahri as well. While there is an abundance of arms supply to both warring parties and limited incentive to end the war, it will prolong. However, with limited and restricted international aid access, the humanitarian cost will be immense. It would likely lead to an unstable Horn of Africa.
Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan, Ayan Datta, Samruddi Pathak, Sayeka Ghosh and Neha Tresa George
China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Tensions escalate in South China Sea as Beijing takes “control measures”
On 8 October, the Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) took “control measures” against two Filipino vessels near the Scarborough Shoal for allegedly invading Chinese waters. CCG spokesperson Liu Dejun urged the Philippines to cease “infringement actions” and vowed to continue enforcing China’s territorial claims. The Philippines’ Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources (BFAR) countered that Chinese vessels fired water cannons at their boats during a resupply mission. The Philippines’ Rear Admiral Roy Vincent Trinidad asserted that the Philippines would not back down on its patrol in the disputed area. He added: “We will ensure that the integrity of our territory is intact.” This is after China held a naval drill for what it described as to “safeguard peace and stability.”
China: Taxes on European brandy imports
On 8 October, China imposed a tax on imports of European brandy. Chinese Ministry of Commerce stated that the measure was taken against European brandy dumping which caused “substantial damage” to Chinese brandy producers. The ministry informed importers that they shall pay “security deposits” on European brandy. The Minister Delegate for Foreign Trade and Economic Attractiveness of France, Sophie Primas, stated that the brandy tax was a retaliation after the EU raised tariffs on the imports of Chinese Electric Vehicles (EVs). Primas added that France would work with the EU to take action at the World Trade Organization (WTO) against the Chinese contradiction of international trade rules. France contributes 99 per cent of European brandy exports to China. The French brandy lobbying group, BNIC, stated that the proposed Chinese tariffs would be catastrophic for the brandy industry, and the taxes needed to be suspended before it was too late. French brandy companies like LVMH and Remy Cointreau witnessed a fall in company shares after the announcement of the tariffs.
China: Foreign Minister urges the US to denounce Taiwanese independence
On 28 September, Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs Wang Yi, during his meeting with the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, stated that the US needed to publicly oppose independence for Taiwan. Wang added that the US needed to adhere to the One-China principle and support the peaceful reunification of China. He criticized the US for having a “two-faced” approach, suppressing China while seeking dialogue. Wang stated that stabilizing China-US relations would benefit both countries and required a rational understanding of dialogues, cooperation, and a careful handling of differences. Wang added that the US was politicizing national security, and interfering in the internal affairs of China.
Japan: Strengthening defence ties with the US amidst regional tensions
On 8 October, Japan’s new Minister of Defence, Gen Nakatani, and US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin held talks, reinforcing their commitment to expand their bilateral presence in Japan’s Nansei Islands near Taiwan. They announced to “work more closely than ever before” in response to growing attempts to change the status quo in the Indo-Pacific region. Their conversation focused on modernising the command-and-control structure of the alliance plans for reforming the US’ command in Japan and building a new Japanese joint headquarters that will serve as the integrated structure. These moves are meant to deter China’s assertiveness, especially in Taiwan. The Taiwan issue was highlighted by controversial comments from former Prime Minister Taro Aso, describing Taiwan as a “country.” Japan’s increased defence budgets target growing Chinese military threats. Nakatani used a rugby metaphor, saying the defence chiefs decided to “form a scrum and work together.”
Japan: Taiwan lifts ban on food products 11 years after Fukushima disaster
On 26 September, Focus Taiwan reported that Taiwan's Food and Drug Administration (TFDA) lifted bans on the import of Japanese food products, imposed after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster. Taiwan banned food imports from the five regions in Japan for 11 years after the nuclear disaster. However, a few items would continue to be blocked. It includes products from Fukushima, Gunma, Chiba, Ibaraki, and Tochigi. The Deputy Director-General of TFDA Lin Chin-fu said: “All food items imported from the five prefectures will have to present radiation and origin certificates and undergo batch-by-batch inspections.” Furthermore, seafood, mushrooms, tea, dairy products, and baby food imports from non-affected areas will be required to present origin certificates and not the Radiation certification anymore.
North Korea: Kim Jong-un warns of nuclear response amidst tensions with South Korea
On 7 October, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un criticised South Korea’s strengthening alliance with the US, labelling it as a “nuclear-based military bloc.” He said that any disruption in strategic balance could lead to war. He added: “The destruction of the strategic balance of power on the Korean Peninsula means war.” Kim threatened to unleash “all offensive capabilities,” including nuclear weapons if North Korea faced military action. He said that Pyongyang has no intention of attacking South Korea and “even the thought of it gives us chills.”
South Korea: Seol prepares for bioterrorism threat from North Korean balloons
On 7 October, The Korea Herald reported that the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) is taking precautionary measures against possible bioterrorism threats from North Korean trash-carrying balloons. The head of the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) Jee Young-mee admitted the risk in a National Assembly audit stating: “We recognize the possibility of bioterrorism associated with North Korea's trash balloons.” The agency stated that it would stockpile vaccines for diseases such as smallpox and anthrax. South Korean Minister of Health Cho Kyoo-hong pledged to back the efforts, adding that South Korea must raise spending to maintain its vaccine stocks for emergency use. Heightened scrutiny is attributed to North Korea launching tens of thousands of trash-filled balloons across the Demilitarized Zone into South Korea as a response to anti-Pyongyang leaflets sent by defectors and activists.
Indonesia: Disputed West Papua lawmakers warn of a possible military assault after release of New Zealand pilot
On 26 September, RNZ reported on West Papua’s lawmaker's apprehension of a possible military assault in Nduga province after the release of New Zealand pilot Phillip Mehrtens. The Vice-President of the United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP) Octovianus Mote requested the New Zealand government to be vigilant of a possible attack. Mote said: “The New Zealand government, they really have to pay attention, not only because we took care of New Zealanders [Phillip Mehrtens], we treated him as our family, but New Zealand is our family, anyway we are Pacific Islanders, Indonesia had been humiliated because they tried to portray TPNPB as a criminal organisation and Mehrtens was treated well throughout his time as a hostage. The way we released him freely, not through the police and military operation, that's another humiliation.” Additionally, Indonesian human rights lawyer Veronica Koman stated that it was wrong to define the release as peaceful, as Indonesian soldiers attempted to rescue Mehrtens in March 2023 with full force, causing severe causalities on both sides. He said: “West Papuans have died during this saga and thousands have been displaced. There were causalities and let's not forget them and let's not only focus on this one white man.” A spokesperson for the New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade said: “Maintaining open and constructive engagement with Indonesia is critical to improving the situation in Papua, and was key for the safe release of Mr Mehrtens. The New Zealand government also acknowledges the patient approach exercised by the Indonesian Military and Police which prioritised the peaceful negotiations needed to ensure Mr Mehrtens' safety.”
Fiji: RFMF plans to change coup culture
On 26 September, RNZ reported on the Republic of Fiji Military Forces’ (RFMF) commitment to change the coup culture of Fiji. Speaking to senior military officers and considering RFMF's efforts in reconciliation, Kalouniwai said: “The Speight and Stevens' release must not move us…in our commitment to the RFMF reconciliation process, the Mercy Commission had followed due process under the country's 2013 Constitution and the military would respect that decision.” Additionally, Kalouniwai and the senior military officers agreed that the 2000 and 2006 coups were important days in Fiji's political history and were a result of pivotal leadership decisions that have left lasting scars on the country. He said: “The motivation of this reconciliation is not for us to find who is at fault or who is the perpetrator of the past political crisis, but for us to find a common ground where we can stand together to move forward.” The RFMF stated that “renewed commitment to ethical leadership and accountability moving forward" were the central themes of the dialogue within the military. It added that the RFMF aims to create an environment where similar mistakes are not repeated, and the values of integrity, respect, and service to the nation are upheld.
Myanmar: Junta representative at the ASEAN summit to negotiate peace
On 9 October, the Myanmar junta announced sending representatives for the ASEAN leaders’ summit in Laos. This would be Myanmar’s first top-level representation in three and a half years. The decision came after the military agreed to kick-start talks to end the conflict, following a series of defeats on the battlefield. The junta leaders have been restricted from the summits since the military coup in 2021. Besides, the leaders were reluctant to send a “non-political” representative. The ASEAN summit will additionally discuss the South China Sea dispute between China and the Philippines.
South Asia
Pakistan: Explosion near Karachi airport kills three
On 6 October, a blast near the Karachi airport left three people dead and 11 injured. Among those killed were two Chinese nationals. The banned Majeed Brigade affiliated with the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for the attack. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif met with Chinese Ambassador Jiang Zaidong and offered condolences. He promised swift action against the perpetrators. He added: “This heinous conspiracy to damage Pakistan-China relations will not be tolerated. I will personally supervise the investigation of this incident.”
Pakistan: 23 polio cases in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
On 28 September, Dawn reported that the recent polio case detected in Kohat has brought the number of cases to 23. According to the Regional Reference Laboratory for Polio Eradication of the National Institute of Health (NIH), the virus was detected in a ten-month-old child. A polio expert said: “The current immunity gap at present is huge and widespread as depicted by 23 cases and 336 environmental samples (ES) detections this year so far and many more are likely to follow in the next quarter.” Prime Minister’s Focal Person for Polio Eradication Ayesha Raza Farooq emphasized protecting children and ensuring the administration of multiple doses of polio vaccine to complete routine immunization.
Pakistan: Violence continues in Kurram
On 28 September, five people were killed and 12 others were injured in clashes between tribal groups in Kurram. The dispute between the tribal groups, Boshera and Ahmadzai, is over land. The violence has spread across Piwar, Teri Mangal, Sadda, Balishkhel, Khar Killay, Sangina, and Chamkani regions. Heavy weapons including rockets and mortars are being used and schools and bazaars have been closed. On 27 September, Adviser to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister on Information and Public Relations, Barrister Muhammad Ali Saif, announced that measures were being taken to resolve tribal disputes in Kurram. He maintained that the issue between rival groups cannot be termed as terrorism or sectarianism and a ceasefire had been put into effect through the efforts of the tribal elders and police.
India-Pakistan exchange barbs at the UNGA
On 30 September, Dawn reported that Pakistani diplomat Muhammad Faheem countered Indian External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar’s previous remarks at the UN General Assembly. Jaishankar called Pakistan “a promoter of terrorism.” He objected to Prime Minister Sharif’s inclusion of the Kashmir dispute in the speech at the General Assembly. In response, Faheem blasted India for being hypocritical stating: “It is most ironic that India, which is committing the worst form of state terrorism in Occupied Jammu and Kashmir while also actively engaging in sponsoring terrorism abroad, is portraying itself as the victim.” Referring to the Kashmiri resistance, he argued that it is a “familiar ploy” by countries like India to label “legitimate struggles for freedom and liberation as terrorism.” Further, he accused India of sponsoring terrorism in Balochistan, targeting the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor through groups like the Baloch Liberation Army and the Majeed Brigade.
Nepal: National disaster authority declares flood crisis zones across 14 districts
On 4 October, the Nepal government declared flood disaster crisis zones across 14 districts, based on the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (NDRRMA)’s recommendations. Although 26 districts were affected, the hardest hit districts were Kathmandu, Bhaktapur, Lalitpur, Sindhupalchok, Dhading, Dolakha, Ramechhap, Kavre, Makawanpur, Sindhuli, Rautahat, Taplejung, Sankhuwasabha, and Panchthar. 238 people were killed, about 200 sustained injury and over a dozen were reported missing in the heavy floods. On 6 October, according to the Kathmandu Post, the death toll rose to 244. Separately, the Home Ministry spokesperson Rishiram Tiwari stated that 17,174 individuals were rescued from affected areas and efforts were being made to restore highways and provide relief.
India: Home affairs ministry’s affidavit against marital rape laws
On 3 October, India’s Ministry of Home Affairs submitted a 49-page affidavit to the Supreme Court regarding the criminalisation of marital rape. The government opposes it for being “excessively harsh.” The ministry believes that there are enough laws in place to offer protection to married women against such violence. This development comes as several petitions have been filed to strike down Section 375 of the Indian Penal Code, which considers sex not to be rape “by a man with his own wife,” if she is no longer a minor. The affidavit claims there is a "continuing expectation to have reasonable sexual access from one's spouse.” It states that including marital rape under anti-rape laws would be “disproportionate.”
Bangladesh: Floods in Sherpur damage 50,000 hectares of crops
On 8 October, Dhaka Tribune reported that 11 people died in floods in Sherpur. According to the district’s agriculture department, the damage to about 50,000 hectares of crops would affect nearly 200,000 farmers. The floods have caused a financial loss of about BDT 500 crore. Around 3,000 fish farms have been reported to be submerged leading to a loss of BDT 30 crore. The Bangladeshi Army has been providing relief in the flood-affected zones.
The Middle East and Africa
Iran: Foreign minister warns of “stronger retaliation” against Israel
On 4 October, Iran’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araghchi warned that any further Israeli attack on its soil would attract “stronger retaliation” than before. The remarks were made during his visit to Lebanon. He revealed that Iran supports a regional ceasefire with Israel, only if it is acceptable to Hezbollah and a simultaneous ceasefire is agreed upon in Gaza. Araghchi termed Iran’s strikes against Israel as “legitimate self-defence based on the UN Charter.” He defended Iran’s attack and emphasized that the country only targeted “military centres” He highlighted that Israel’s bombardment of the country was reflective of Iran’s support of Hezbollah. Separately, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for unity among the Muslim countries and emphasized that “the resistance in the region will not back down even with the killing of its leaders.”
Iran: Kamala Harris terms Iran US’s “greatest adversary”
On 7 October, US Vice President Kamala Harris termed Iran as the US’ “greatest adversary.” Referring to Iran’s 1 October attack on Israel, she emphasized that stopping the former from acquiring a nuclear weapon was one of her “highest priorities.” Previously, Harris categorically condemned Iran’s missile attack on Israel. The US’ attention has shifted to Iran after the war in the Middle East has escalated in the past few weeks.
Israel: Yahya Sinwar ordered a continuation of suicide attacks after assuming power, says Arab intelligence
On 9 October, the Wall Street Journal reported that according to anonymous Arab intelligence officials, Hamas political bureau leader Yahya Sinwar ordered the armed group to resume suicide attacks against Israel shortly after assuming Hamas’ leadership on 6 August. Sinwar’s rise to Hamas’ leader followed the assassination of former Political Bureau leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran. Hamas previously used suicide attacks during the Second Intifada (2000-2005) to force Israel’s government to roll back Jewish settlements from the West Bank and Gaza.
Israel: Hamas fires rockets into Israel on 7 October anniversary; leader Meshaal calls the group a “phoenix”
On 7 October, one year after Hamas’ multi-pronged attack on Israel, Reuters reported that the armed group fired four rockets into Israel, all of which were intercepted by Israeli air defence systems. Separately, former Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal called the armed group a representative of the “Palestinian spirit” that “rises again, like the phoenix.” Commenting on the ongoing war in Gaza, he stated: “We lost part of our ammunition and weapons, but Hamas is still recruiting young men and continues to manufacture a significant portion of its ammunition and weapons.” Furthermore, he commented that “as long as the (Israeli) occupation exists, the region remains a ticking time bomb.”
Israel: Hezbollah leader supports ceasefire negotiations amidst expanding IDF operations
On 9 October, Arab News reported that Hezbollah rockets killed two Israelis in northern Israel’s Kirya Shmona region. On 8 October, the Israel Defence Forces deployed its 146th Division (its fourth Division to join the Lebanon war) and expanded its operations from southeastern to southwestern Lebanon. On the same day, Hezbollah’s Secretary General Naim Qassem supported the ongoing attempts by Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker, Nabih Berri, to secure a ceasefire. However, he added that “dozens of (Israeli) cities are within range of the resistance’s missiles. We assure you that our capabilities are fine.”
Israel: Hamas leader killed in Lebanon
On 5 October, an IDF airstrike killed Hamas leader Saeed Atallah in a Palestinian refugee camp in northern Lebanon’s Tripoli city. On the same day, Israel conducted airstrikes in Beirut, with the IDF issuing prior warnings to residents to evacuate the area of the strikes. On 4 October, Israel conducted airstrikes on what it said was Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters in Beirut.
Tunisia: Second term for President Kais Saied
On 8 October, Tunisia’s electoral commission declared Tunisia’s President Kais Saied winning a second term in office, securing more than 90 per cent of votes. A day before the elections on 6 October, hundreds of Tunisians protested against Saied for his electoral measures limiting the number of opponents and suppressing any competition. Several political parties had boycotted the elections. Only two candidates were allowed to stand against Saied and 29 per cent of the population registered to vote.
Djibouti: 45 migrants die after boats sink in the Red Sea
On 2 October, Al Jazeera reported that at least 45 people died and dozens are missing after two vessels carrying refugees sank off the coast of Djibouti. The boat left for Yemen with 310 people on board. The “Eastern Route” is known for human smugglers, transporting refugees fleeing conflict zones in East Africa to Yemen and from there to the Gulf states. In 2023, 700 people died while crossing the route.
Democratic Republic of Congo: Boat accident in Lake Kivu kills 78
On 3 October, Al Jazeera reported that at least 78 people died after a board capsized in Lake Kivu in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. According to the Governor of South Kivu province Jean Jacques Purisi, 278 people were on board. The boat started its journey from the town of Minova in South Kivu to Goma. The region is prone to similar boat accidents. People seek boats for travelling as the roadways are insecure amidst the M23 rebel insurgency.
Mauritius: The UK agrees to give sovereignty to Chagos Islands
On 3 October, the UK announced giving the sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius. The deal provides Mauritius sovereignty to a key US military base in Deigo Garcia. However, the US has been guaranteed of its operation in the base for the next 99 years. The UK’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, David Lammy, stated: “Today’s agreement secures this vital military base for the future. It will strengthen our role in safeguarding global security, shut down any possibility of the Indian Ocean being used as a dangerous illegal migration route to the UK, as well as guarantee our long-term relationship with Mauritius.” The UK, a former coloniser of Mauritius detached the Chagos Islands from the country in 1965. In the 1970s, the UK evicted nearly 1,500 residents from Diego Garcia to Mauritius and Seychelles for the airbase leased to the US in 1966 for a USD 14 million discount on Polaris missiles. In 2010, Mauritius filed a case against the UK in ICJ, claiming its sovereignty over the Chagos Islands. In 2019, Mauritius won the case and a six-month notice was given to the UK to hand over the island. However, the UK objected to the ruling and stalled it until 2024. Meanwhile, many Chagossians dispute Mauritian sovereignty and are claiming self-determination.
Nigeria: 100 people missing after a boat capsizes in the Niger River
On 2 October, Al Jazeera reported that more than 100 people went missing in Nigeria’s Niger state after a boat capsized in the Niger River. According to the Mokwa district officials, at least 300 people were on board in a boat of 100 people capacity. The boat was travelling from Mundi to Gbajibo town. According to Al Jazeera, this is the second similar incident of more than 100 people being killed in a boat accident.
Europe and The Americas
Ukraine: Russia attacks Zaporizhzia with guided bombs
On 30 September, The Guardian reported on the Russian attack in Zaporizhzhia. The attack injured 16 people and damaged railways, infrastructure, residential and commercial buildings. According to the governor of the Zaporizhzhia, Ivan Federov, Russian forces used 13 guided bombs to target three districts in the southeastern city of Ukraine. Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, informed of the destruction caused by the damage. Previously, the Russian forces shot down Ukrainian drones in the Russian region. The attack led to a wildfire and several fires in buildings. It was considered as one of the largest drone attacks. According to Russia’s Ministry of Defence, 125 drones were shot down in the overnight strike across seven regions. The southwestern region of Volgograd came under fire with 67 drones. However, the Governor of Rostov Vasily Golubev region said that the fire did not threaten the populated areas.
Denmark: Heavy floods in 51 municipalities
On 30 September, 51 out of the 98 municipalities in Denmark deployed emergency teams to clean the damage caused by heavy rainfall. The Danish weather service said that more than 140 litres of water rained per square metre in coastal areas near the North Sea. Denmark’s emergency services have requested more equipment and personnel as the weather conditions are expected to become extreme. The Head of the Secretariat of the Danish Emergency Services Bjarne Nigaard said that Denmark is running out of policy for disaster preparedness. The weather service stated that there has been a significant rise in the rainfall Denmark has received in the past few years. In 2023, Denmark recorded a rainfall of 92 litres per square metre.
Greece: Wildfires in Corinth kill two
On 30 September, wildfires in Corinth in the west of Athens claimed the lives of two citizens assisting firefighters in tackling the forest fires. The fires have forced several villagers to be displaced internally. Six villages were ordered to complete evacuation overnight due to the uncontrolled spread of wildfires. The fire brigade has launched an investigation into the proliferation of active wildfires. Greece experienced the hottest summer this year ever recorded. The months of June and July 2024 were the hottest. Greek authorities had to deal with 4,500 wildfires in 2024. So far, 350 firefighters have been deployed and eight water-dropping aircraft are operating. According to climate scientists, marine heatwaves from the Mediterranean Sea coupled with hot and dry weather are increasing the climate risks. According to the UN's World Meteorological Organization, Europe is the fastest-warming continent.
Haiti: UN advises for stricter arms control
On 26 September, the UN released a report which said that around 13 citizens died every day in 2024 due to gang wars in Haiti. Almost 3,500 individuals have been killed and 7,00,000 have been internally displaced due to gang violence. Haiti had requested a UN mission in 2022 which was approved in 2023. After the UN mission’s first troops were deployed, the gangs in Haiti started recruiting children. The report said that gangs have access to high-calibre weapons, drones, boats and an endless supply of bullets because the state does not have adequately monitored air spaces, coastlines and borders.
Mexico: Hurricane John claims 15 lives
On 1 October, Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador stated that Hurricane John claimed 15 lives. However, the number is mooted as local media claims that 29 people died in the John hurricane. The previous week, the southern part of Mexico was hit by a storm that caused significant damage. The rainfall due to the John hurricane caused several landslides and flooding. The Oaxaca state suffered more than 80 landslides. Officials have reported that more than 5,000 people had to be evacuated.
Haiti: Gang violence claims over 70 lives
On 5 October, the Gran Grif gang members carried out an armed attack in Pont-Sondé in the central Artibonite region in Haiti. A government prosecutor described the attacks as a “massacre.” The UN reported that the gang members set fires to at least 45 houses and 34 vehicles. The Gran Grif gang is responsible for the closure of a hospital that served more than 7,00,000 citizens. The gang currently has about 100 members.
Mexico: Mayor of Guerrero murdered
On 7 October, the Mayor of Guerrero Alejandro Arcos was found murdered in Chilpancingo, a city in southwestern Mexico. He took office six days before. Guerrero is the worst-affected city in Mexico with drug-related violence. His murder was reported three days after the government’s new secretary, Francisco Tapia, was shot dead. Several government officials were murdered after the elections in June 2024.
About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh, Samruddi Pathak and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad.
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Global Politics Team
Global Politics Team
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Lekshmi MK
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Lekshmi MK
Global Politics Team
Nishchal Nath Pandey
IPRI Team
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Anu Maria Joseph
Lekshmi MK
Preetha Renganarayanan
Brighty Ann Sarah
Preetha Renganarayanan
Global Politics Team
Brighty Ann Sarah
Anu Maria Joseph
Lekshmi MK
Brighty Ann Sarah
IPRI Team
Lekshmi MK
Anu Maria Joseph
Brighty Ann Sarah
IPRI Team
Global Politics Team
IPRI Team
Global Politics Team
Padmashree Anandhan
Aparna A Nair
Sunidhi Sampige
Lekshmi MK
Lekshmi MK
Akriti Sharma
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
Padmashree Anandhan
Padmashree Anandhan
Padmashree Anandhan
Merin Treesa Alex
Preetha Renganarayanan
Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha
Santhiya M
Brighty Ann Sarah
Preetha Renganarayanan
Brighty Ann Sarah
Rohini Reenum
Lekshmi MK
Swati Sood
Sunidhi Sampige & Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha
Lekshmi MK
Emma Rose Boby
Abhimanyu Solanki
Femy Francis
Femy Francis
Femy Francis
Aparna A Nair
Brighty Ann Sarah
Rohini Reenum
Akshath Kaimal
Preetha Renganarayanan
Akshath Kaimal
Preetha Renganarayanan
Preetha Renganarayanan
Emma Rose
Rohini Reenum
Lekshmi MK
Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha
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Mahesh Batt
Femy Francis
Rizwana S Banu
Anu Maria Joseph
Anu Maria Joseph
Rohini Reenum
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Sunidhi Sampige
Sunidhi Sampige
Sunidhi Sampige
Santhiya M
Anu Maria Joseph
Lekshmi MK
Anu Maria Joseph
Akshath Kaimal
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Preetha Renganarayanan
Lekshmi MK
Sunidhi Sampige & Tanvi Harendra
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Akriti Sharma
IPRI Team
Femy Francis
Anu Maria Joseph
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Femy Francis
Anu Maria Joseph
Brighty Ann Sarah
Padmashree Anandhan
R Preetha
Akriti Sharma
GP Team
Anu Maria Joseph
Brighty Ann Sarah
Padmashree Anandhan
Akshath Kaimal
Brighty Ann Sarah
Akriti Sharma
Femy Francis
GP Team
Anu Maria Joseph
Padmashree Anandhan
Rohini Reenum
Brighty Ann Sarah and Preetha R
Anu Maria Joseph
D Suba Chandran
IPRI Team
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Anu Maria Joseph
Neha Tresa George
Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi
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Rizwana S Banu
IPRI Team
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Abhiruchi Chowdhury
Padmashree Anandhan
Santhiya M
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Padmashree Anandhan
Anu Maria Joseph
Mahesh Batta
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IPRI Team
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Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha
IPRI Team
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Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha
Padmashree Anandhan
GP Team
IPRI Team
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi
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IPRI Team
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
GP Team
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Anu Maria Joseph
Femy Francis
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Abhiruchi Chowdhury
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Gauri Gupta
GP Team
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Abhiruchi Chowdhury
R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah
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Nuha Aamina
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Santhiya M
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GP Team
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D Suba Chandran
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Rohini Reenum
South Asia Brief Team
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South Asia Brief Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
Trisha Roy
IPRI Team
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Anu Maria Joseph
Ayan Datta
Anu Maria Joseph
Anu Maria Joseph
Padmashree Anandhan
Padmashree Anandhan
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
Samruddhi Pathak
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IPRI Team
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Anu Maria Joseph
Samruddhi Pathak
Femy Francis
IPRI Team
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GP Team
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IPRI Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
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Anu Maria Joseph
Ayan Datta
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IPRI Team
Rohit Paswan
Padmashree Anandhan
Ayan Datta
Shreya Jagadeesan
Bishwarupa Kar
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IPRI Team
GP Team
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Neha Tresa George
Samruddhi Pathak
Neha Tresa George
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
Ayan Datta
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Sayeka Ghosh
GP Team
Neha Tresa George
Advik S Mohan
Ramya B
Sim V
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Arya Madhavan S
Ankita Chakra
Rianne Rajath P
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GP Team
Swagathi Annabel
Bishwarupa Kar
Ayush Bhattacharjee
Shifa Moideen
IPRI Team
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Mugdha Chaturvedi
Ayan Datta
Vaneeta
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Ms Ramya
Nivetha B
Leivon Victor Lamkang
Siddhima M
Pranesh Selvaraj
Dhriti Mukherjee
Nandini Khandelwal
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Govind Anoop
Shreya Jagadeesan
Rohit Paswan
Nupur Priya
Neha Tresa George
Shilpa Joseph
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IPRI Team
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Dhriti Mukherjee
Rohini Reenum
GP Team
Shilpa Jospeh
Samruddhi Pathak
Sayeka Ghosh
Govind Anoop
Vetriselvi Baskaran
Neha Tresa George
Padmashree Anandhan
Diya Madhavan
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Vaneeta
Dhriti Mukherjee
Ashwini Barla
Ayan Datta
Karthik Manoharan
Ramya B
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Vaneeta
Sayeka Ghosh
Ayan Datta
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Mayank Bharti
Ronakk Tijoriwala
Deepika Seervi
Vetriselvi Baskaran
Anu Maria Joseph
Anu Maria Joseph
Vetriselvi Baskaran
Anu Maria Joseph
Jerry Franklin A
Anu Maria Joseph
Anu Maria Joseph
IPRI Team
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Prajwal T V
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IPRI Team
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Dhriti Mukherjee
IPRI Team
Anu Maria Joseph
Ronakk Tijoriwala
Neha Tresa George
Shilpa Joseph and Ken Varghese
IPRI Team
Femy Francis
IPRI Team
Dhriti Mukherjee
Torunika Roy
GP Team
IPRI Team
Dhriti Mukherjee
IPRI Team
Mugdha Chaturvedi
Dhriti Mukherjee
By young scholars of NIAS Course on Global Politics: Contemporary World Order and Theories. Compiled by Sayeka Ghosh.
By the NIAS-IPRI Course scholars on Contemporary Conflicts, Peace Processes, Theories and Thinkers. Compiled by Ayan Datta.
Vaneeta
Kavithasri M
Mallika Joseph
Rohini Reenum
Padmashree Anandhan
Tiara Marie Warjri
GP Team
Femy Francis
Akhil Ajith
Dhriti Mukherjee
IPRI Team
D Suba Chandran
Padmashree Anandhan
Femy Francis
Rohini Reenum
Dhriti Mukherjee
D Suba Chandran
Rohini Reenum
Dhriti Mukherjee
NIAS South Asia Team
NIAS South Asia Team
Devi Chandana M
Alka Bala
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Rohini Reenum
Dhriti Mukherjee
Rohini Reenum
Dhriti Mukherjee
GP Team
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IPRI Team
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IPRI Team
Vaneeta
Arya Prasad
Sayeka Ghosh
Alka Bala
Diya Madhavan
IPRI Team
GP Team
Femy Francis
IPRI Team
Ramya B
NIAS South Asia Team
Padmashree Anandhan
Rosemary Kurian
Alka Bala
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
T C A Raghavan
IPRI Team
Karthik Manoharan
Rosemary Kurian
NIAS Africa Team
Manasa G
GP Team
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Ramya B
NIAS South Asia Team
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Asanga Abeyagoonasekera
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IPRI Team
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GP Team
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IPRI Team
Jerry Franklin A
GP Team
IPRI Team
Padmashree Anandhan, Femy Francis, Rohini Reenum, Akriti Sharma, Akhil Ajith, Shamini Velayutham and Anu Maria Joseph
Alka Bala
IPRI Team
Narmatha S and Anu Maria Jospeh
Alka Bala
Rosemary Kurian
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GP Team
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IPRI Team
IPRI Team
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IPRI Team
CEAP Team
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IPRI Team
IPRI Team
Padmashree Anandhan
Anu Maria Joseph
GP team
Hoimi Mukherjee
Richa Chandola
Aprajita Kashyap
Shreya Pandey
Binod Khanal
Rishika Yadav
Padmashree Anandhan
Anu Maria Joseph
Nuha Aamina
Alka Bala
Sayani Rana
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Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri
Femy Francis
Amit Gupta
Kuri Sravan Kumar
Yogeshwari S
Abhishek Ranjan
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
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Nithyashree RB
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
Anu Maria Joseph
GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
Jerry Franklin A
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
PR Team
Amit Gupta
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
Akhil Ajith
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
Femy Francis
Femy Francis
Femy Francis
Femy Francis
NIAS Africa Team
Nithyashree RB
Jerry Franklin
GP Team
IPRI Team
PR Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
Nithyashree RB
PR Team
Padmashree Anandhan
Padmashree Anandhan
Rishika Yadav
Sreeja JS
Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri
GP Team
IPRI Team
PR Team
Prof Joyati Bhattacharya
IPRI Team
GP Team
GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
Anu Maria Joseph
Jerry Franklin A
IPRI Team
Dhriti Mukherjee
PR Team
Femy Francis
Shamini Velayutham
Sneha Surendran
PR Team
PR Team
PR Team
NIAS Africa Team
Anu Maria Joseph
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
Sneha Surendran
Heribert Dieter
IPRI Team
Nithyashree RB
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
Sneha Surendran
Rishika Yadav
Padmashree Anandhan
Jerry Franklin A
Rishika Yadav
GP Team
IPRI Team
Jerry Franklin A
Lakshmi Parimala H
GP Team
Rishika Yadav
IPRI Team
D Suba Chandran
GP Team
Indrani Talukdar
IPRI Team
S Shaji
Jerry Franklin A
Sneha Surendran
Himani Pant
D. Suba Chandran
Ankit Singh
IPRI Team
Rubina Pradhan
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Nithyashree RB
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Devjyoti Saha
NIAS Africa Team
Jerry Franklin A
Anu Maria Joseph
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
Lakshmi Parimala
GP Team
IPRI Team
Padmashree Anandhan
Sneha Surendran
GP Team
Padmashree Anandhan
IPRI Team
Rishika Yadav, Sneha Surendran, Sandra D Costa, Ryan Marcus, Prerana P and Nithyashree RB
GP Team
Harini Madhusudan, Rishika Yada, Sneha Surendran, Prerana P, Sreeja JS and Padmashree Anandhan
GP Team
IPRI Team
Bibhu Prasad Routray
NIAS Africa Team
Anu Maria Joseph
Jerry Franklin
IPRI Team
Bibhu Prasad Routray
NIAS Africa Team
Jerry Franklin
Anu Maria Joseph
GP Team
IPRI Team
Anu Maria Joseph
GP Team
Rishika Yadav, Sreeja JS, Nithyashree RB, and Melvin George
Nithyashree RB
Sreeja JS
Rishika Yadav
Padmashree Anandhan
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
Devjyoti Saha
Indrani Talukdar
Debangana Chatterjee
Kasturi Chatterjee
Ankita Dutta
Amrita Purkayastha
GP Team
Lakshmi Parimala H
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
Padmashree Anandhan
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
Sourina Bej
GP Team
Padmashree Anandhan
Padmashree Anandhan
D Suba Chandran
D Suba Chandran
D Suba Chandran
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
IPRI Team
Avishka Ashok
Madhura Mahesh
Padmashree Anandhan
Ankit Singh
Anu Maria Joseph
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Avishka Ashok
IPRI Team
GP Team
GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
Allen Joe Mathew, Sayani Rana, Joel Jacob
Ankit Singh
Bhoomika Sesharaj
Madhura Mahesh
Harini Madhusudan
Avishka Ashok
Akriti Sharma
Padmashree Anandhan
Poulomi Mondal
Mohaimeen Khan
Padmashree Anandhan
Madhura Mahesh
Padmashree Anandhan
Janardhan G
Avishka Ashok
Anu Maria Joseph
Apoorva Sudhakar
Rashmi BR
Kaviyadharshini A
Avishka Ashok
Chrishari de Alwis Gunasekare
Aparupa Bhattacherjee
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
NIAS Africa Team
NIAS Africa Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
Vignesh Ram
Sai Pranav
Harini Madhusudan, Rishma Banerjee, Padmashree Anandhan, Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan, and Avishka Ashok
Sourina Bej
Padmashree Anandhan and Rishma Banerjee
Mathew Sonu Simon
Sourina Bej
Rashmi BR and Akriti Sharma
Rashmi Ramesh
Rishma Banerjee
Sai Pranav
Emmanuel Selva Royan
Padmashree Anandhan
Ashwin Immanuel Dhanabalan
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
IPRI Team
Avishka Ashok
Angelin Archana
Shreya Upadhyay
Uma Purushothaman
Debangana Chatterjee
Himani Pant
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Avishka Ashok
GP Team
GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
Sourina Bej
Padmashree Anandhan
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