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CWA # 1536, 14 November 2024
Conflict Weekly
Trump and the Conflict in the Middle East

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #254, 14 November 2024, Vol.5, No.46
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Ayan Datta

India-China Border Disengagement 
Ayan Datta
 
In the news
On 12 November, US President-elect Donald J Trump nominated Florida Senator Marco Rubio as US Secretary of State. Republican leader Michael Waltz was selected as National Security Advisor and former Director of National Intelligence (DNI) John Ratcliffe as Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).

On 11 November, US President-elect Donald J Trump nominated former Governor of Arkansas, Mike Huckabee, as US Ambassador to Israel, calling him a “leader in faith” who “loves Israel” and “will work tirelessly to bring about Peace in the Middle East.” 

On the same day, Trump nominated Fox News journalist and US Army Captain Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defence, calling him a “patriotic champion of our Peace through Strength policy.”

On 10 November, Trump appointed New York Representative Elise Stefanik as US Ambassador to the UN. 

On the same day, the UN Security Council held an emergency meeting to discuss the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Famine Review Committee (FRC) alert issued on 8 November that famine was “imminent” in the northern Gaza Strip. Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights Ilze Brands Kehris accused Israel of contributing to famine in the enclave by using starvation as a method of warfare and emptying Gaza of Palestinians using forced displacement. She highlighted that “failure by Palestinian armed groups to comply with international humanitarian law does not remove or reduce the obligation of Israeli forces to comply.”

On the same day, Hezbollah fired at least ten rockets and drones into northern and central Israel, killing two civilians in northern Israel’s Nahariya region and injuring two others in the Kibbutz Kabri region. On the same day, a Hezbollah drone struck near a kindergarten in northern Israel’s Nesher town. There were no injuries. 

On the same day, the Israel Air Force (IAF) struck around 100 targets in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah’s fighters, weapons depots and other infrastructure. Additionally, the IAF conducted airstrikes south of Beirut and stated that it had destroyed the majority of Hezbollah’s weapons storehouses in the Lebanese capital.

Issues at large
First, Trump's approach to the Middle East and the appointments. While Trump campaigned to wind down US entanglements in global conflicts, including the Middle East, he gave Israel complete support and freedom to conduct military operations in Gaza, encouraging Netanyahu to “do what you have to do” to “finish the job.” On Iran, Trump stated that his policy would be of “maximum pressure” on the Islamic Republic, leading to “peace through strength” for the US and its middle-eastern allies. He has promised to restrict Iran’s oil exports and intensify sanctions to tighten “the economic noose around” Tehran. Furthermore, Trump is committed to a harsher nuclear deal with Iran, stronger military action against Iran’s regional “proxies,” and support for Netanyahu’s offensive posture against Iran. On regional peace, Trump aims to revive the Arab-Israeli normalisation efforts. However, Trump also said he wants Israel a quick victory and wrap up operations by the time he enters office because “the killing (presumably of Palestinians) has to stop.” Despite his calls for peace, recent foreign and security appointments are all staunchly pro-Israel and hawkishly anti-Iran, reflecting his identification of Tehran as the primary threat to Washington’s interests in the Middle East. While Waltz shares Trump’s assertive policy towards Iran, Rubio blamed Hamas for civilian deaths in Gaza and encouraged Israel to destroy the armed group. Huckabee, Washington’s new Ambassador to Jerusalem, recognised the US as a “strong ally” of Israel and refused to identify Jewish communities in the West Bank as “occupation.” Stefanik, Trump’s appointment for the UN, has criticised the UN’s role in the Gaza conflict, accusing it of pro-Hamas bias. Since his Fox News days, Hegseth has advocated unrestrained US support for Israel, including forcible denuclearisation of Iran by US airstrikes.  Ratcliffe, the former DNI, criticised Biden for taking a soft approach against Iran and jeopardising Israel’s security. He staunchly supports Israel’s strategy of escalation dominance against Iran

Second, the humanitarian crisis in northern Gaza and accusations against Israel. In October, the IDF began renewed operations in northern Gaza, alleging that Hamas had regrouped in the area. Israel subsequently ordered an evacuation of the region and blocked entry of humanitarian aid. On 5 November, the IDF stated that Gazan civilians who had left northern Gaza would not be allowed to return, inviting allegations from humanitarian groups that Israel is trying to depopulate part of Gaza and gradually make it uninhabitable. Furthermore, the IDF has built multiple roads crisscrossing the enclave, including northern Gaza’s Netazarim Corridor and southern Gaza’s Philadelphi Corridor, leading to allegations that Israel was planning to occupy and eventually resettle Gaza. 

Third, the continuing Israel-Hezbollah war. Israel invaded Lebanon on 1 October to stop Hezbollah’s rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel. It sought to push the armed group north of central Lebanon’s Litany River by destroying its capabilities and personnel in southern Lebanon. The IDF has followed a two-pronged strategy of conducting infantry and artillery-driven operations focused on southern Lebanon and airstrikes across southern Lebanon and Beirut. Both are aimed to destroy Hezbollah's weapons stores, especially those located within civilian houses, and continue killing its new leaders. According to the Washington Post, Israel conducted over 3200 airstrikes in Lebanon in October, with an average of over 100 strikes daily. Despite suffering losses and losing territory, Hezbollah has continued to strike northern Israel, indicating that it has acquired projectiles with increased range and can attack from deeper inside Lebanon. 
 
In perspective
First, Trump’s Presidency will intensify support for Israel. Unlike Biden, who occasionally criticised Israel on humanitarian grounds and threatened to reduce military supplies without imposing tangible costs on the latter, Trump will support Israel without moderating his rhetoric with humanitarian support for Palestinians. It may produce a return to the pre-war situation of ‘occupation without consequences’ for Israel. 

Second, with stronger US support, IDF operations in Gaza and Lebanon will continue. With Trump’s cabinet filled with staunch pro-Israel appointees, Israel will have no incentive to compromise with its objectives and cooperate with peace efforts. 

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan, Ayan Datta, Sayeka Ghosh and Neha Tresa George

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Anti-dumping measures on EU brandy imports
On 11 November, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced provisional anti-dumping measures on the EU brandy imports, effective from 15 November. The investigation by the ministry since January 2024 concluded that EU producers dumped products in China, harming the domestic industry. The new rules will impose customs duties between 30.6 and 39 per cent. The levies will apply to grape-based spirits in containers less than 200 litres imported from the EU.

Taiwan: US Commerce Department instructs TSMC to halt shipment of AI chips to China
On 11 November, Reuters reported that the US Commerce Department instructed Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) to stop shipping advanced AI chips to Chinese customers. Subsequently, TSMC announced a halt in the production of AI chips for Chinese customers. TSMC has informed Chinese chip design firms of the suspension of manufacturing of chips at advanced process nodes of seven nanometers or smaller for AI accelerators and graphics processing units (GPUs). However, these conditions do not apply to mobile, communication and connectivity-related chip makers. It could impact Chinese companies including Baidu and Alibaba. TSMC stated: “The move is to tighten the scrutiny over possible attempts to circumvent US export controls, TSMC affirmed its commitment to complying with all rules and regulations, including export controls, set by the US.”

North Korea: Pyongyang signs a defence pact with Russia
On 12 November, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un signed a defence pact with Russia. According to the North Korean Central News Agency (KCNA), the treaty is committed to mutual military assistance in the event of an attack on either side. Meanwhile, the US confirmed the presence of ten thousand troops deployed in Russia's front line in the Kursk region. South Korea’s Ministry of Unification stated that North Korea and Russia have completed all ratification procedures. 

North Korea: US and Ukraine officials claim 50,000 North Korean-Russian soldiers in the Kursk region 
On 10 November, The New York Times quoted the US and Ukraine officials that 50,000 soldiers, assembled by Russia, began an assault on the territories seized by Ukraine in the Kursk region. The offensive began after US President Donald Trump took office, intending to end the war. An anonymous Ukraine official stated: “Ukraine’s surprise incursion into Kursk in August thinned out its forces across the battlefield in eastern Ukraine, leaving them vulnerable to Russian advances.” The Pentagon’s deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh stated that the US expects the DPRK soldiers to enter and engage in combat.  A Ukrainian soldier was quoted that the North Korean forces had been divided into an assault unit and a support unit, helping the Russians to provide security inside the territory recaptured from Ukrainian forces. 

South Korea: Responds to North Korea’s ballistic missile tests
On 5 November, North Korea fired short-range ballistic missiles and a new Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) into the East Sea. In response, on 8 November, South Korea fired a Hyunmoo-II surface-to-surface ballistic missile into the Yellow Sea. South Korea’s Joint Chief of Staff stated: "Through this live-fire exercise, our military demonstrated its strong resolve to respond to any North Korean provocation as well as the capabilities and posture for precision strikes against the enemy's origin of provocation.”

Kiribati: Concerns over US’ ICBM tests in the Pacific
On 11 November, Kiribati expressed concerns over recent intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests in the Pacific. The previous week, the US launched an unarmed Minuteman III ICBM from Vandenberg Space Force Base. It came after North Korea tested its new ICBM on 31 October. The President’s Office of Kiribati stated: "The United States government clarified that, as Kiribati is a subscribing state to the Hague Code of Conduct against Ballistic Missile Proliferation (HCoC), a pre-launch notice was issued pursuant to the United States' obligations under the HCoC in the form of a press release on 1 November 2024. We remain deeply concerned about the ongoing use of the Pacific Ocean for missile testing."

The Philippines: Typhoon Toraji weakens; warnings on tropical storm Usagi 
On 12 November, The Straits Times reported on the aftermath of Typhoon Toraji in the Philippines. The storm has caused relatively less damage with no reported casualties. However, the country is bracing for another tropical storm Usagi, two days away from the coast. It is expected to intensify in three days.

Indonesia: Military exercise with Australia
On 11 November, The Straits Times reported on the Keris Woomera exercise, set to be held between Indonesia and Australia from 13 to 16 November. It is the largest combined joint activity between the countries, involving 2000 personnel under the Australia- Indonesia Defence Cooperation Agreement. According to an Australian army officer, the exercise aims to increase “cooperation” with neighbours to promote their “prosperity and security.” The countries are set to practice “a joint landing operation, live-fire and a non-combat evacuation held for a disaster.”

South Asia
Pakistan: Seven killed in separate attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 
On 7 November, Dawn reported that four Frontier Corps personnel died in three separate attacks in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. In the South of Waziristan, an improvised explosive device (IED) was used to attack a bomb disposal vehicle in the Ladha tehsil. The explosion was followed by shooting which led to the death of four army personnel, while five others sustained injuries. Following the attack, the area was sealed off and an investigation was launched. A similar attack in the Daza Ghundai area killed a Counter-Terrorism Department official and injured two other civilians. Separately, a mortar shell caused a fire in the Bhutan Shareef area. The shrapnel affected six children, killing two.
 
Pakistan: Ten terrorists killed and eight injured in Waziristan, reports ISPR
On 10 November, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) announced that the security forces killed ten terrorists and inflicted injury on eight others in the North of the Waziristan district. It added that an intelligence operation was launched in the Spinwam area, where six Khawarij or terrorists were killed and six others were injured. The security personnel recovered several weapons and ammunition from the terrorists. In another incident, the security forces were able to intercept Khwarij trying to cross the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, and two Khawarij were killed. Since the beginning of November, the armed forces have eliminated more than 12 terrorists. 
 
Pakistan: Provisional and federal governments commit to fighting terrorism with full force in Balochistan
On 11 November, Dawn reported that the provincial and federal governments have committed to tightening the security apparatus for combating terrorism. A case has been filed against the “suicide bombing” incident that killed 26 people at the Quetta railway station. Pakistan’s Minister of Interior Mohsin Naqvi and Balochistan Chief Minister Sarfraz Bugti deliberated upon the same and assessed the state of “law and order” in the province. It was decided that there would be an increase in the number of intelligence-based operations and capital for the capacity development of the security officials in Balochistan. The Naqvi reassured Bugti of the federal government’s full assistance in helping the province fight terrorism. 

Bangladesh: Chief Adviser affirms interest in joining Climate Club
On 11 November, Bangladesh’s Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus expressed the country’s inclination towards working with the Climate Club during the Climate Club leader’s meeting on the sidelines of COP29. Climate Club is a platform that facilitates intergovernmental cooperation to promote decarbonization of industries. Chief Adviser Yunus said: “To mitigate these risks, policies such as carbon border adjustments and international cooperation are essential to balance decarbonisation efforts with economic stability.”  He added: “Inaction would make the developing world less competitive and more vulnerable given their current context.” He called for giving these countries “preferential treatment” because if strong emission policies are introduced, developing countries will have to bear the costs, affecting their global competitiveness. 

Bangladesh: 81 Rohingyas detained and three killed in separate incidents
On 11 November, 81 Rohingyas were detained by residents while attempting to cross the Myanmar border into Bangladesh. Meanwhile, an unidentified man shot down a Rohingya youth in the subdistrict of Teknaf. On the same day, a Rohingya woman and a child were shot dead by the Indian Border Security Force while trying to enter Bangladesh via the Moulvibazar district. On 10 November, a Rohingya youth was shot dead by an unidentified person at a Teknaf camp, Cox Bazaar.

India: Violence in Manipur relief camp
On 11 November, violence broke out in Manipur as an attack was launched on a relief camp housing nearly 118 Meitei people. As the violence subsided, 13 people were found missing. On the same day, a farmer in the Imphal district was shot dead by militants. The attack marked the third day since militants started attacking farmers in the Imphal Valley. On 13 November, the Indian Express reported that on 12 November the security forces killed ten militants affiliated to the Hmar community. They were suspected of being involved in the relief camp attack. 

The Middle East and Africa
South Sudan: 380,000 people displaced by floods
On 9 November, the UN reported that the floods in South Sudan displaced more than 379,000 people. The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) stated that the floods have affected nearly 1.4 million people across 43 counties. It stated: “A surge in malaria has been reported in Jonglei, Unity, Upper Nile, Northern Bahr el Ghazal, Central Equatoria and Western Equatoria states – overwhelming the health system and exacerbating the situation and impact in flood-hit areas.” Since gaining independence in 2011, South Sudan has been facing political instability, violence, economic stagnation and additionally climate disasters including drought and floods. 

Mozambique: Post-election violence kills 30 
On 8 November, Al Jazeera reported that at least 30 people were killed in Mozambique during the three weeks of violent protests after the disputed presidential elections. The Human Rights Watch stated: “At least 30 people were killed between October 19 and November 6 inclusive across the country.” On 24 October, the ruling Frelimo party, in power for the past 49 years, won the elections, securing 70 per cent of the votes. The opposition and election observers claimed that the elections were unfair and rigged. It led to widespread violent protests and crackdowns by authorities. 

Africa: Climate crisis and its increasing link to the refugee crisis, UNHCR report
On 12 November, the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) released the report “No Escape: On the Frontlines of Climate Change, Conflict and Forced Displacement.” According to the report, three-quarters of forcibly displaced people worldwide live in countries affected by climate-related crises. Half of the displacements are located in the regions affected by conflict and climate issues together. It includes Myanmar, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan and Syria. UN High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi stated: “For the world’s most vulnerable people, climate change is a harsh reality that profoundly affects their lives.” He added: “The climate crisis is driving displacement in regions already hosting large numbers of people uprooted by conflict and insecurity, compounding their plight and leaving them with nowhere safe to go.” 

Europe and The Americas
Russia: Putin affirms partnership with China not against a third country
On 7 November, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin commented on bilateral ties between China and Russia, reaching an unprecedented degree of trust. During the Valdai Discussion Club speech, Putin insisted that the partnership is not aimed at earmarking a third country, including the US. The collaboration ranges from energy and high technology, including mutual support for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). He confirmed Russia’s commitment to the one-China policy and criticised Taiwan for perpetuating regional tension. He dismissed concerns over regional competition and said that cooperation in Central Asia was “complementary rather than competitive.” He spoke about security issues and the rising tensions in the Asia-Pacific region due to the provocations by the West, particularly NATO and US-Japan military exercises.

Portugal: Protest in Lisbon and Porto against low “minimum wages”
On 10 November, Euronews reported that more than a thousand demonstrators rallied in Lisbon and Porto to register their dissent against low wages and demand better “housing and healthcare.” The protests were led by the General Confederation of the Portuguese Workers (CGTP). CGTP Secretary General Tiago Olivera cited hardships of the working class in accessing costly “housing” and “healthcare” as the main triggers behind the protests. Portugal is placed in 12th position in terms of “minimum wage” in the EU. Portugal has set its minimum wage per month as EUR 820.

Ukraine: Threat from Russia after the takeover of Kurakhove dam
On 11 November, military experts in Ukraine warned of probable disaster in Donetsk as Ukrainian forces face the threat of being taken over by Russian troops after causing severe damage to the Kurakhove Dam. Regional Governor Vadym Filashkin said: “We continue to monitor the water level in the river and are prepared for any developments.” In June 2023, during the Kakhovka Dam destruction, several people were killed.

Ukraine: Russia strikes Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia regions
On 11 November, governors of the Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia reported on Russian air strikes. Following the strikes, five people were reported dead and 19 injured. Besides, residential buildings were destroyed. Separately, on 8 November, The Kyiv Independent informed that 14 individuals were killed and 88 injured in Russian attacks in Ukraine. An aerial bomb attack on the city of Zaporizhzhia by Russia killed ten individuals including a one-year-old child, injuring 41 others. The Governor of Donetsk Oblast Vadym Filashkin informed that Russian forces killed two individuals and injured six others in an attack in the Kramatorsk district of Donetsk Oblast. The Governor of Odesa Oblast Oleh Kiper confirmed a Russian drone attack in Odesa Oblast killed one individual and injured eight. Russian missile attacks and shelling also targeted Kyiv Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson Oblast. One resident in Kherson was killed in the attacks and 25 residents in Kharkiv were injured by an aerial bomb attack on a residential building. 

Switzerland: Carbon budget for 2020-2050 to exhaust early
On 11 October, Swissinfo reported that Switzerland plans to release “660 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents” which is 0.13 per cent of the world’s “carbon budget” for 30 years from 2020.  Switzerland had pledged to cut emissions by 50 per cent by 2030 and be completely free of “C02 emissions” by 2050. However, experts have pointed out that Switzerland in 2024 is left with 50 per cent of the total budget decided in 2020 for ten years. Another unpublished study by ETH Zurich reports that the country would be left with “280 million tonnes of CO2 equivalents” for the coming 30 years.

Switzerland: Frequency of wet avalanches to increase due to climate change
On 7 November, Swissinfo reported that from the year 2100, Switzerland would see a spike in wet avalanches due to the perils of climate change. However, the count of dry avalanches would go down. It is also predicted that avalanches would not pose a threat in valleys, but would increase at “higher altitudes.” The frequency of life-threatening snowfalls is also likely to increase. 

About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad. 

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