Conflict Weekly

CWA # 1541
Conflict Weekly
The Long Range Missiles in Ukraine War and the Prolonged War in Sudan

IPRI Team
22 November 2024
Photo Source: Russian defence ministry press service handout/EPA

Conflict Weekly #255, 21 November 2024, Vol.5, No.47
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph

The US and Ukraine: Biden approves launching of missiles further into Russia
Padmashree Anandhan
 
In the news
On 20 November, Bloomberg reported on Ukraine using the UK’s Storm Shadow long-range missiles into Russia. The missiles have the capacity to travel 250 kilometres. 
On 19 November, Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov said that Ukraine’s use of long-range ATACMS missiles would be a “new phase of the Western war.” The move was seen as a clear signal of conflict escalation and added that without US assistance, Ukraine would not have access to high-tech missiles.

On the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin modified the nuclear doctrine. Peskov added that lowering the threshold for the nuclear strike will be observed closely; however, Russia will try to avoid a nuclear war outbreak and use nuclear weapons to the maximum extent.

On 18 November, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said: “Blows are not inflicted with words,” indirectly mentioning that the missiles “will speak for themselves.” According to a US official, the move will “send a message” to North Korea, which has deployed 11,000 troops on behalf of Russia.

On 18 November, RT quoted Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova on the US lifting the ban on long-range weapons. She said: “Kyiv’s use of long-range missiles to attack our territory will mean the direct participation of the United States and its satellites in hostilities against Russia.”

Issues at large
First, Ukraine’s apprehension and Biden’s reluctance. Since the war, Ukraine's military objectives have been to strengthen its defence and secure more advanced weaponry. This became more insistent when Ukraine failed in its spring counteroffensive in November 2023 and the demands for more air defence rose when Ukraine lost Bakhmut and Avdiivka oblasts. The total aid given by the US to Ukraine accounts for USD 106 billion and out of this close to USD 70 billion has been exclusively for weapons and military support. However, comparing the phase of the tactical weapons or advanced systems delivered or permissions to use has always been measured. The main reason has been the hesitance to send the latest advanced systems and fear of escalation. Two years later, advanced air defence systems and very recently F-16 fighter jets have been supplied to Ukraine. Despite the recent increased participation from North Korea and Iran, the recent decision comes more like a parting move by Biden as Trump warned to stop funding the war.

Second, recent Russian advances. In recent months, Russia was succesfull in its offensives launching the heaviest air bombardments across Ukraine and also targeting the communication and energy grid of Ukraine. Along with Iran’s Shahed drones, the direct engagement of North Korean troops has garnered larger criticism stoking fear among the West to improve their weapon support to Ukraine. Overall, the expansion of the battlefield into Kursk and the intervention of new actors have become the basis for the escalation of the war.

Third, the threat of nuclear weapons. Since 2022, any time the US or European countries announced the sending of advanced missile systems or larger military assistance, Russia has responded through a test or upgrade of its nuclear programme. On 25 September, Putin announced changes to the nuclear doctrine stating it would be used not just under attack but when faced with a “critical threat.” This came when the US-made ballistic missiles were used by Ukraine in the Kursk invasion. Similarly in May, when the UK announced to send armour-piercing shells containing depleted Uranium, Russia as a counter, sent tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus. This was a strategic move to target Ukraine from the Belarusian border side and extend attacks into eastern and central Europe if threatened. This has helped in keeping NATO’s deeper engagement with Ukraine away. 
 
In perspective
First, the Russian offensive to aggravate. The announcements on nuclear doctrine upgrade could be a signal for a larger offensive by Russia. As the US Presidency is up for transition, Russia would attempt to fully secure the Donbas region. The deeper strikes into Kyiv, Ukraine’s energy grids and communications lines could reduce Ukrainian attacks into Russia and Donbas. This can be resonated with the ongoing battles in Pokrovsk and Toretsk in the Donetsk Oblast.

Second, Ukrain’s difficult road ahead. The supply and permit to use long-range missiles by the US and the UK give a limited scope for the Ukrainian military to strengthen its position on the ground. However, looking at the future trajectory of Ukraine against Russia, with no continued support from the US and Europe’s challenge in replenishing its defences, it is bleak for Ukraine. In less than two months of Donald Trump’s presidency, he has promised to end the war. On the ground, Ukraine can attempt to not lose more territory to Russia and strike deeper to place itself better at the negotiation table. Politically, echoing the recent statements of Zelenskyy, Ukraine has to find common ground for a compromise. 

Sudan: A prolonged war and failed mediations
Anu Maria Joseph
 
In the news
On 18 November, Russia vetoed a UK and Sierra Leone-backed UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Sudan. The UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy described the veto a "disgrace." He stated: "How many more Sudanese have to be killed? How many more women have to be raped? How many more children have to go without food before Russia will act?"

All other 14 UNSC members voted in favour of the resolution. Russia's representative at the UN, Dmitry Polyanskiy said that the resolution was "an attempt to give themselves opportunity to meddle" in the internal affairs of Sudan. 

On the same day, Sudan’s ambassador to the UN, Al-Harith Idriss al-Harith Mohamed, said that certain "prerequisites" including condemnation of the UAE for allegedly backing RSF and classifying the RSF as "terrorists" were not included in the draft.

On 14 November, a report by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine's Sudan Research Group claimed that number of people dying because of the war in Sudan is higher than the previous reports. It stated that more than 61,000 people have died in Khartoum alone and 26,000 of those killed in direct violence and many others died because of preventable disease and starvation. 

On the same day, Amnesty International Secretary General Agnès Callamard alleged the RSF of using vehicles in Darfur supplied by the UAE and manufactured in France. He stated: "Our research shows that weaponry designed and manufactured in France is in active use on the battlefield in Sudan."

Issues at large
First, a prolonged war. The civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has crossed 19 months. A new wave of violence began in mid-October. Capital Khartoum, the cities of Omdurman and Bahri, and the states of Darfur and Kordofan are not the sole flashpoints anymore. El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state, is under relentless bombardment, aerial attacks and civilian atrocities. The death toll in Al Hilalliya town in Eastern Al Jazirah has increased to 527 since late October, according to Sudan Tribune.  The RSF has been carrying out attacks to take control of SAF bases, forcibly recruit men from displacement camps, and ally with tribal leaders and clan chiefs.

Second, insufficient responses and ineffective mediation. The latest round of UNSC resolution calling for a ceasefire failed after ten rounds of ceasefire efforts by international actors including the US and Saudi Arabia. In September, the UN extended an arms embargo on Sudan, aiming to bring down the intensity of violence. However, it did not disrupt the flow of weapons. The SAF criticises the US and European countries for tactically supporting the RSF by not responding to the UAE supplying arms to the RSF.  

Third, the humanitarian crisis in Sudan. According to the UN Human Rights Commission, nearly 11 million people are internally displaced amidst the war. The war has triggered direct violence, armed robberies, looting, sexual violence, and ethnic clashes across the country. Besides, famines, weather disasters and the spread of diseases have exacerbated the crisis. In August, WFP declared famine in the Zamzam IDP camp with 14 other regions facing similar conditions. 

Fourth, regional impacts. According to UNHCR, two million people from Sudan have taken refuge in neighbouring countries including South Sudan, Chad, and Egypt. The refugee influx in the region has left these countries in crisis. UN's IPC Index published on 18 November records that almost 7.7 million people would be facing acute food insecurity by April 2025 in South Sudan, wherein Sudanese refugees being the most vulnerable.

In perspective
The war has prolonged and it is uncertain how long it will continue or ever end. The short-sighted objective to end violence, ignoring the root causes behind Sudan’s decades-long struggle, has added the country to the list of “never-ending wars.”

Russia vetoing the UNSC resolution says that Sudan has become a battleground for several international actors, including Russia, the UAE, and Iran, for their geopolitical ambitions. The war in Sudan not being at the best interest of the US or any other Western countries, they have realised that bringing the warring parties to a negotiating table is a herculean task. They would likely give limited attention and effort to avoid the blame of ignorance. Without substantial Western support, international organizations, including the UN and its agencies, have a limited role. The warring parties' inclination toward several African countries is a major challenge for regional organizations. 

The outcome of the war is an innumerable human cost. The protracted war and climate crisis have induced a humanitarian disaster in Sudan and the region. More international attention and response is required to the humanitarian crisis than the war which has no end in sight. Because, even if the war is to end tomorrow, the humanitarian rebuilding will take decades.

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan, Ayan Datta, Sayeka Ghosh and Neha Tresa George

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Hong Kong high court sentences 45 pro-democracy activists 
On 19 November, the High Court in Hong Kong handed prison sentences to 45 pro-democracy activists, ranging from four to ten years in a trial under China’s national security law. Pro-democracy activists were accused of subversion of elections and planning to elect pro-democracy candidates in 2020. The US called the trial “politically motivated,” asking China to release the arrested. Australia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Penny Wong expressed “grave concern” and urged China to stop crackdowns on Hong Kong protesters. A crowd of supporters gathered outside the West Kowloon Magistrates’ Court. Many were vocal in their support, with some expressing the “injustice” they felt the activists had been subjected to.

China: First joint counterterrorism exercise with Pakistan in five years 
On 19 November, VOA reported that China and Pakistan will hold the first joint counterterrorism exercise in five years this month and early December. Troops from China’s Western Theater Command are set to participate in the Warrior-VIII exercise. The military collaboration came amidst increasing attacks on Chinese nationals in Pakistan. Chinese Ambassador Jiang Zaidong expressed concerns stating: “It is unacceptable for us to be attacked twice in only six months.” The exercise coincided with Pakistan’s growing concerns about Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants allegedly operating from Afghanistan.

China: Xi Jinping’s redlines to the US
On 17 November, at the APEC summit, China’s President Xi Jinping warned the US not to cross the four “red lines.” This included Taiwan, democracy, human rights, and development rights. Xi warned the US to stay out of territorial disputes in the South China Sea and against supporting provocative action in the region. He emphasised that relations would advance greatly between the two countries if both approached more as friends than foes.

North Korea: Kim Jong-un calls for limitless nuclear expansion
On 18 November, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un ordered the expansion of nuclear capabilities “without limitation” to prepare for what he described as “frantic” military escalations by adversaries. In an address to battalion commanders, Kim stated that his country’s self-defence should be based on nuclear power and indicated no satisfaction with current capabilities. He accused the “critical” trilateral alliance between the US, South Korea, and Japan as a threat to peace on the Korean Peninsula. Kim added that the US and its allies are heightening international conflicts, particularly making Ukraine “shock troops” against Russia. However, he refrained from mentioning the deployment of North Korean troops to Russia, a fact recently confirmed by South Korea and the US. 

North Korea: Kim Jong-un supervises suicide attack drones and urges for a full-scale production
On 15 November, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un supervised the performance of suicide attack drones and urged the need for full-scale mass production. The Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) stated that the suicide drones would precisely attack the enemy targets on land and sea with an inbuilt tactical means. Kim said: “The competition for using drones as the main means of military capabilities ... is being accelerated in the world, highlighting their expanding range of military applications, low production cost and simple production lines.” In July 2023, North Korea flew five cross-border drones across the borders of South Korea, entering the no-fly zone close to Seoul's presidential office. Additionally, two new reconnaissance and multi-purpose attack drones were unveiled at an arms exhibition and parade. 

South Korea: President Yoon Suk Yeol hints at support for Ukraine 
On 14 November, President Yoon Suk Yeol stated the possibility of South Korea backing Ukraine due to North Korea’s involvement in Russia's war against Ukraine. Recently, South Korea and the US confirmed the deployment of North Korean soldiers to Russia's western front line in the Kursk region. Yoon said: “If they both do not stop their dangerous military adventure, we are prepared to implement appropriate effective measures, including strengthening support for Ukraine, in cooperation with our allies and like-minded countries.” Yoon warned against Russia sharing military intelligence and technology with North Korea. Additionally, he urged Russia and North Korea to end the illegal military ties and withdraw North Korean troops. 

The Philippines: Military intelligence deal with the US
On 18 November, the Philippines and the US signed a military intelligence deal for greater coordination between their armed forces. The General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) call for assistance in a secured exchange of “classified military information.” Through the deal, the Philippines’ President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and US President Joe Biden aimed to counter China’s policies in the South China Sea. The Philippines expects to deepen its relationship with the US under the upcoming President Donald Trump.

Myanmar: Civil society group requests the US to impose sanctions on Myanmar Economic Bank
On 20 November, the International Campaign for the Rohingya, a civil society group in Myanmar, wrote to the US Department of State and the Department of Treasury to block the state-owned Myanmar Economic Bank through sanction. They claimed that the Myanmar military uses the bank’s dollar-based financial system to get jet fuel suppliers and arms dealers. They said that the international support enjoyed by the military should be stopped as it is at its weakest point in the war. According to the group, the US has not responded, despite receiving the letter. 

Myanmar: Highest landmines casualties in 2023, ICBL report
On 20 November, The Straits Times quoted a report by the International Campaign to Ban Landmines (ICBL), assessing the landmine casualties worldwide in 2023. According to the report, anti-personnel mines and explosive remnants of war killed or wounded 1,003 people in Myanmar in 2023. With the conflict and restrictions in Myanmar, obtaining the exact number was difficult. Thereby, it is expected that the actual number would be higher than the record. ICBL said that the armed groups or military have not provided any data. They added that the usage of anti-personnel mines increased recently, particularly around mobile phone towers and energy pipelines.

Myanmar: Military killed 735 Rakhine residents, claims ULA
On 19 November, The Irrawaddy quoted a report by the United League of Arakan’s (ULA) Humanitarian and Development Coordination Office on the number of Rakhine residents killed by Myanmar’s military. The report said that 735 people were killed and 1,569 were injured in the Rakhine state. It added that although the military has lost its stronghold in townships across the Arakan region, the people are under the threat of airstrikes and artillery shots. The ULA added that the military troops had so far detained 749 civilians. The authorities have imposed restrictions on the residents to move to safer places.

Australia: Japanese troops deployment in cooperation with the US
On 17 November, Australia’s Minister of Defence Richard Marles stated that Japanese troops would make regular deployments in northern Australia along with the US. The partnership, involving the Rapid Deployment Brigade of Japan, aims to enhance the quality of joint exercises with 2,000 US Marines based in Darwin. The development reflects increased apprehensions over China’s growing military might in the Indo-Pacific. The move is likely to strengthen the US-Japan alliance. US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin reiterated that the country remains committed to regional stability in the Indo-Pacific. 

New Zealand: Indigenous community protests over bill redefining the Treaty of Waitangi
On 19 November, more than 40,000 protesters marched at New Zealand’s parliament in Wellington over a proposed bill redefining the principles of the country’s founding Treaty of Waitangi. The 1840 treaty is the heart of Māori rights and race relations. For some critics, the bill threatens Māori rights and for others, it promises equality in a multicultural society. The protest, led by Māori Queen Ngā Wai hono i te pō, capped a nine-day peaceful march. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon stated that the bill lacks enough support to pass, despite being introduced by the Act Party. The Act Party’s leader David Seymour stated that the Treaty had fostered division. The bill was described as “divisive” by Māori leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer. She said: “We can't live equally if indigenous people are treated as less.” 

South Asia
India: Protests against killing Meitei members in Manipur called off
On 20 November, Manipur state authorities extended temporary mobile services and internet suspension across seven districts amidst protests against the state and central government in the Imphal valley. The Coordinating Committee on Manipur Integrity (COCOMI) declared a suspension of its sit-in. The committee commented that the National Investigation Agency would investigate the killings of the six civilians, after rejecting the government's proposed eight-point resolution. This development comes as Kuki Hmar militants killed six individuals including women and children in the Jiribam district.

Bangladesh: Efforts to arrest Sheikh Hasina underway
On 16 November, the Chief Adviser of the interim government Muhammad Yunus announced that his government would extradite Sheikh Hasina. Marking 100 days in office he stated: “We will seek the return of the fallen autocrat Sheikh Hasina from India." Separately, while addressing Transparency International Bangladesh, regarding the threat to Hindus in the country, he claimed that the numbers were exaggerated. On 18 November, a special tribunal began hearing updates from police regarding Sheikh Hasina's arrest. 

The Middle East and Africa
Israel: Continuing hostilities with Hezbollah; Hagari flags Hezbollah’s Syria connection  
Between 14 to 20 November, the Israel Air Force (IAF) continued airstrikes in Beirut, especially the Dahiyeh suburbs of the city, calling it Hezbollah’s stronghold. On 18 November, Hezbollah rockets targeted Israel’s capital, Tel Aviv, with six people wounded by falling shrapnel as Israel intercepted the rockets. On 17 November, Hezbollah’s Media Relations officer, Mohammad Afif, was killed in an Israeli air strike in central Beirut. On the same day, Hezbollah targeted northern Israel’s Haifa city with rockets and drones, striking a Jewish synagogue in the city. On 15 November, The Israeli Air Force (IAF) shot down three projectiles from Lebanon, suspected to be drones, over northern Israel’s Upper Galilee. On the same day, Israel’s military spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, stated that Hezbollah was using rockets and weapons “manufactured in Syria and were transferred to Hezbollah from Syria.” He added that Israel would target “all attempts to transfer weapons from Syria to Hezbollah and strike any infrastructure we identify in Syria that is being used to manufacture weapons for Hezbollah.”

Israel: Continuing hostilities against Hamas and PIJ
On 17 November, Israel targeted a residential tower in northern Gaza’s Beit Lahya town, killing 70 Palestinians, dozens of whom were trapped and buried under the rubble. On 15 November, the Gaza-based Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) armed group released a video of Russian-Israeli hostage Alexander Troufanov. On the same day, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) killed PIJ leader Alkaman Abed Elslam Khalil Anbar in Gaza City, calling him responsible for the armed group’s rocket attacks towards Israel. Additionally, Israel continued group operations in northern Gaza’s Beit Lahya and Jabaliya cities and southern Gaza’s Rafah city.

Israel: Hamas leader urges Trump to restrain Israel, restates readiness for ceasefire 
On 16 November, Hamas political bureau member Bassem Naim urged US President-elected Donald Trump to “pressure the Israeli government to end the aggression in Gaza.” Naim reiterated Hamas's support for a “definitive ceasefire,” Israel’s “military withdrawal from the Gaza Strip,” “a serious deal for a prisoner exchange,” and “entry of humanitarian aid and reconstruction” of the enclave, adding that it had informed the mediators of its position. Naim’s statement, addressed to the new US government, followed the failure of the latest negotiations in October, where Hamas rejected Israel’s proposal for a short-term ceasefire, and the latter, in turn, rejected Hamas’ offer for a longer pause in hostilities.

Lebanon: 200 children killed since war with Israel started, says UNICEF 
On 19 November, the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) stated that over 200 children were killed since Israel launched its military campaign in Lebanon, with an average of three children killed every day. UNICEF spokesperson James Elder stated that there was a “disconcerting pattern” of children’s deaths being met with “inertia” and indifference from national and international decision-makers, leading to the “silent normalisation” of the killings. Comparing the deaths with civilian deaths in Gaza, Elder added: “In Lebanon, much the same as has become the case in Gaza, the intolerable is quietly transforming into the acceptable. And the appalling is slipping into the realm of the expected.” On 15 November, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) in Lebanon stated that Israel’s airstrikes in the country’s densely populated spaces.  

Lebanon: Hezbollah Chief responds to US ceasefire proposal, Netanyahu vows to continue war 
On 20 November, Hezbollah General Secretary Naim Qassem stated that they perused a US ceasefire proposal with Israel and submitted its “response” through Lebanon’s parliament speaker Nabih Berri, acting as a mediator between Washington and the armed group. Without disclosing the terms of the proposal or Hezbollah’s response, Qassem stated that the armed group insisted on two principles: a permanent ceasefire and the preservation of Lebanon’s sovereignty, rejecting the idea that Israel could continue attacking Hezbollah after a ceasefire was reached. Previously, on 18 November, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel would conduct continuous military operations against Hezbollah even if a ceasefire was reached with Lebanon. Addressing Israel’s Knesset, he added that the Hezbollah threat would require “our reaction, a preventive reaction, a reaction in the wake of the attack, but also the capacity to prevent Hezbollah from strengthening.” He outlined Israel's goals as preventing Hezbollah from “return(ing) to the state it was in on October 6,” when it opened a support front to ease pressure on Hamas. Additionally, on 17 November, Ali Hassan Khalil, an aide to Berri, stated that Hezbollah’s proposed modifications reflected “precise adherence to (UN) Resolution 1701,” which mandated that Hezbollah would withdraw its personnel and weapons depots behind central Lebanon’s Litani River, which is 30 kilometres north of the Israel-Lebanon border.

Democratic Republic of Congo: M23 rebels accused of ethnic cleansing
On 20 November, the Democratic Republic of Congo government accused the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group of “ethnic cleansing” in the eastern conflict-hit region. The Minister of Interior Jacquemain Shabani condemned the “massive arrival of foreign populations” in the Rutshuru and Masisi regions of North Kivu province, where villagers were "expelled by violence." He commented: “This is what constitutes ethnic cleansing.” Although there has been a lull in the fighting between the rebel group in recent months, developments might increase tensions between Rwanda and the DRC. 

Mali: Former al-Qaeda police chief sentenced to ten years in jail for war crimes
On 20 November, the International Criminal Court (ICC) sentenced Al-Hassan Ag Abdoul Aziz Ag Mohamed Ag Mahmoud, the former head of Islamic police in Mali, to ten years in prison. He is accused of carrying out a “reign of terror” after the al-Qaeda Ansar Dine group captured the city in 2012. He is guilty of torture, carrying out public amputations and brutal floggings.  

South Africa: Illegal miners trapped in the shaft amidst blockade
On 17 November, Al Jazeera reported on the illegal trapped miners in South Africa. Earlier this month, the South African government announced a blockade on an illegal mine with 4,000 miners inside. The authorities denied deliveries of food, water and other basic needs to empty the mine. Since the police operation began, more than 1,170 miners have resurfaced. However, others are trapped inside. Volunteers have been carrying out rescue operations. Human Rights groups and labour organisations have denounced the move. According to the government, illegal mining has caused a loss of USD one billion annually in the country. 

Europe and The Americas 
Georgia: Police destroys protestors camp in Tbilisi
On 19 November, Deutsche Welle reported that the police destroyed a tent camp in Tbilisi set up by the protestors. They were protesting against the recent parliamentary election results. The public perceives the Georgian Dream Party’s re-election to the parliament as against the country’s aspirations to join the EU. They claim a vote fraud influenced by Russia. However, the party’s leaders have refuted these claims with the Central Election Commission saying that the party has secured 54 per cent of the vote. President Salome Zourabichvili said that the elections had “widespread violations of voting universality and ballot secrecy.” The Georgian opposition party members refused to enter the parliament calling the results “illegitimate.” The leader of the opposition Akhali Party, Nika Gvaramia, explained that several party activists were injured and detained during the protests. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Interior warned the protestors to leave and not to disturb the daily lives of people.

Europe: Finland and Germany warn over undersea cable sabotage
On 19 November, Politico reported on the warnings by Finland’s Minister of Defence Antti Häkkänen over the threats on the undersea cables. He said: “NATO and [the] EU have to do a lot more to protect this critical infrastructure.” His comments came amidst an investigation on a damaged internet cable C-Lion1 connecting Santahamina, near Helsinki, to Rostock, Germany. Sweden’s Minister of Civil Defence Carl-Oskar Bohlin reported on the damage to a second undersea cable. Germany’s Minister of Defence Boris Pistorius referred to the damage as “sabotage. Germany’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Annalena Baerbock assured that the EU would remain united. In response to the incident, the foreign ministers of Germany, France, Poland, Italy, Spain and the UK declared a jointly stated: “Moscow’s escalating activities.” Meanwhile, a Swedish media, SVT, reported on the presence of a Chinese ship around the areas where the cables were damaged. This marks the second damage in a year, sparking security concerns.

France: Farmers protest against EU-Mercosur FTA
On 18 November, farmers across France protested against the EU-Mercosur trade deal. According to protesters, the deal risks their livelihoods by allowing cheaper South American agricultural products under lesser environmental limits. They fear unfair competition and burdening regulations, impacting their income. Arnaud Rousseau, head of France's main farmers' union said: “We are against the conclusion of an unbalanced treaty likely to destroy part of the French agricultural sector." The union calls it an “agricultural revolt” in southwestern France. France’s President Emmanuel Macron’s stance has echoed the same, as the deal will replace the home-grown products with Brazil and Argentina’s beef, chicken, sugar and maize, affecting the farmer’s income. The debate over pesticides, hormones and land use regulation has long been protested by farmers in Europe.

Ukraine: Russia strikes an apartment in the Sumy region
On 18 November, the Associated Press reported on the Russian attack on a nine-storied building in the Sumy region. It killed eight people and injured several others. Following the incident, Ukraine’s Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko said: “Every life destroyed by Russia is a big tragedy.” Around 400 people were evacuated from the building. 

Ukraine: Amnesty International report on children in the war
On 18 November, Amnesty International published a statement highlighting the condition of children in Ukraine amidst Russia’s large-scale attacks. It looked at 17 strikes in 2024 that led to child casualties. According to field research, Russia’s forces intentionally targeted civilians and infrastructure. The research particularly highlighted the cruise missile attack on the Okhmatdyt hospital in Kyiv. It killed two people and injured over a hundred others including children. According to the data published by the United Nations Office of the High Commissioner of Human Rights (OHCHR), the 2024 summer was comparatively “deadly” for children. The data points out that 89 per cent of civilian casualties have occurred in Ukraine-controlled territories. However, Amnesty International could not verify the number of children reported to be dead. It called for justice and redress for the victims through fair trial under international law.

Russia: Ukrainian drone strike in the border towns
On 17 November, Belgorod Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov reported on a Ukrainian drone strike. According to him, it killed one person. The attack comes after a wave of drone attacks by Ukraine across the border towns including Bryansk, Kursk, Lipetsk and Oryol. No casualties were reported. On 16 November, the Russian Ministry of Defence reported on intercepting a series of Ukrainian drones across Kursk. According to the report, 15 drones were shot down in Kursk, one in Bryansk and the remaining in Lipetsk and north. Several buildings were reportedly damaged; however, no casualties were recorded.

Norway: Parliament apologises to the Sami communities for attempted “Norwegianization”
On 14 November, the New York Times reported on the formal apology by Norway’s parliament to the Sami, Kven and Forest Finn people. It issued 17 resolutions to counter the discrimination they face along with the protection of minority languages and cultures. Silje Karine Muotka, a Sami leader described it as “a day with many emotions.” The apology is for the long-attempted assimilation process taken by the government towards the Indigenous communities. The Norwegianization used education and religion to eliminate the communities’ language and culture. They lost their grazing land and fishing. They were not allowed to settle in several areas and the Sami children were separated from their parents to Norwegian foster homes and state-run boarding schools. Although these legislated reforms ended in 1960, they faced the consequences. The apology presented to the communities was one of a kind and the Sami leaders expect “an active policy of reconciliation.”

About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad. 


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May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:
Fraying Ceasefire, Renewed Negotiations and the Risk of a Stalemate
TWTW Takeaways
May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V

King Charles's US Visit:
Emphasis on strong bilateral relations, democratic values and security cooperation
TWTW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf

UAEs Exit from OPEC:
Implications for the Middle East and the Energy Market
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:
Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal

Escalating Violence in Mali:
Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups
TWTW Note
April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Japans New Defence Posture:
From Post-War Pacifism to Strategic Recalibration and Autonomy
CW Note
April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
Asymmetric Terms, Fragile Truce and Israeli Occupation
CW Note
April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad
Special Commentary
April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan
Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Expanding Drone Warfare, Russia's Strategic Patience and Ukraine's Diplomatic Outreach
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2068

Femy Francis

China-Japan Tensions
Escalating Defence Posturing and Economic Decoupling
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2066

Akshath Kaimal

The Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Recurrent Clashes, Defiant Taliban, Contesting Narratives and Emerging Chinas Role
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The Middle East (JanMar 2026):
The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Afghanistan (JanMar 2026):
Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)
Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)
Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2059

Adarsh Vijay

India and the World(Jan-Mar 2026)
Maintaining Strategic Autonomy, Balancing the US relations and Resetting the China ties
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)
Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)
An Illegitimate Regimes Consolidation Game
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2055

Haans J Freddy

East Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Chinas military operations near Taiwan, Japan-China tensions and South Koreas security challenges
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

Chinas External Landscape (Jan-Mar 2026):
Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

The United States(Jan-Mar2026)
Tariffs, Ukraine, Iran and Operationalization of Trumps World Order
March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting
Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?
March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:
Five major challenges for the new government
March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War
UNSC Resolution 2817 between Clear and Unified Message and Manifest Injustice
March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

Chinas Two Sessions 2026
New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget
March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
March 2026 | CWA # 2012

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Long-range strikes, Defence adaptation and the EUs energy dependence
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026
The Rise of the New and the Fall of the Old
March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The Forgotten South Sudan Conflict
Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modis Visit to Israel
From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership
February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover
PR Commentary
February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan
The return of Basant, and what it signifies
February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria
US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency
February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine
The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26
Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China
Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
PR Explainer
November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US
A New opening, or another cycle?
February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China
PM Keir Starmers visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties
TWTW Note
January 2026 | CWA # 1946

R Preetha

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1709

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #284-285
Cambodia-Thailand Border Tensions, Protests in the US, and the Indigenous Māori question in New Zealand
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1672

D Suba Chandran

India and Pakistan:
De-escalation and the “New Normal”
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan