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CWA # 1548, 5 December 2024
Conflict Weekly
Continuing Baloch Disappearances and the Failed PTI Protest in Pakistan

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #257&258, 5 December 2024, Vol.5, No.48 & 49
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI
 

Vaneeta and Nuha Aamina

Pakistan: Continuing Disappearances in Balochistan 
Vaneeta
 
In the news
On 24 November, Dawn reported that the Chairman of Voice for Baloch Missing Persons (VBMP) Nasarullah Baloch along with Vice Chairman Mama Qadeer Baloch addressed a press conference highlighting the sit-in protest in Awaran against the disappearance of political activist Diljan Baloch. The protestors demanded Diljan’s return and a fair trial in court. Nasrullah said: “If he is innocent, he should be immediately released, and his family should be relieved of the mental anguish caused by his disappearance.” He informed that Deputy Commissioner Ayesha Zahri assured Diljan’s return within ten days.

On 24 November, a local newspaper, Balochwarna, reported that the sit-in protest, which began on 18 November, showed no sign of slowing down until Diljan Baloch is released. 

On 23 November, security forces threatened the protestors with baton charges, and a curfew was imposed in the city.    

On  27 November, ANI reported the eruption of another protest in the city of Hub in Balochistan against the forced disappearance of Chakar Khan Bugati.

Issues at large
First, continuing disappearances in Balochistan. The disappearances in Balochistan began during the 1973-1977 insurgency and it continued. The first case of disappearance was of Asad Mengal, son of former Chief Minister of Balochistan Atta Ullah Mengal, and his friend Ahmed Kurd in 1976. After Bhutto dissolved the provincial assembly of Balochistan in 1973, which instigated the insurgency, people disappeared without traces and were detained without fair trials. In October, PAANK, the human rights wing of the Baloch National Movement (BNM), reported 110 disappearance cases. In September, 41 people were reported to have disappeared. Raids by security forces and associated agencies at houses, business centres and hospitals are resulting in increased abductions. Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances reported 10,285 cases until June 2024.    

Second, continuing protests by the families and civil society.  Protests by civil society groups and the family members of the abductees are not new. In November, more than two protests erupted against the disappearances. In December 2023, hundreds of Balochis walked to Islamabad, protesting against the same. On 28 July 2024, the Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) organised “Baloch Raaji Muchi (Baloch National Gathering)” against the Baloch Genocide a term used by the BYC. Protests are predominantly against the lack of response from the authorities. Moreover, there is a advocacy    camp set up by Voice for Baloch Missing Persons (VBMP  in Quetta  which has been a sign of resistance for last 15 years.

Third, inefficient state response. Security forces and the state justify these disappearances in the name of counterinsurgency operations aimed at the country’s security. During the protests, police and security agencies often carry out unlawful violence, arbitrary arrests and detention of protesters. In 2023, Dawn reported that enforced disappearances have been a unique state policy to suppress any movements against the state in Balochistan. The state treats these protestors as criminals. The Deputy Regional Director for South Asia at Amnesty International, Babu Ram Pant, said: “Every time Baloch protests take place, their demands are met with violence by security forces and mass arrests. We saw it in December last year at the Baloch Long March. We see it now again with the Baloch Raji Machi protests in what is clearly a punitive attempt by the Pakistani authorities to deter, vilify and criminalise peaceful protesters.”     

Fourth, failure of the judiciary. In February 2024, during a petition hearing in Islamabad High Court directed to form a committee of directors general of the Intelligence Bureau (IB), Inter-Service Intelli­gence (ISI), and Military Intelli­gence (MI) to trace themissing students. However, the federal government argued against it, that the high court had exceeded its jurisdiction by stepping into the executive domain.  This highlights the limitations and failure of the judiciary to enforce any decision. The judiciary failed to solve the problem and provide necessary legal support to the disappeared and their families.  A Commission of Inquiry on Enforced Disappearances (COIOED) was established in 2011. This commission received 10,285 cases until June. The government additionally established a Federal Task Force on Missing Per¬s¬ons in 2013. However, nobody has been held responsible. In June 2022, Dawn reported that the Islamabad High Court Chief Justice Athar Minallah said about COIOEDon: “It has become obvious by now that it has not been able to effectively achieve its object. The commission is a burden on the exchequer, and it ought to justify its continued existence.”
 
In perspective
The enforced disappearances are likely to continue as solving the issue will not serve the interest of the state. The state uses enforced disappearances as a tactic to silence the society and suppress the Baloch National Movement. These disappearances are symbols of systematic abuse of power by the state under the guise of national security. There has been a lack of political will from the state to resolve the issues. Moreover, protests and civil society activism increased after 2020 in the form of larger organised political movements with the help of groups such as BYC and VBMP. The ongoing protests serve as a reminder of the injustice and pain suffered by the marginalized Baloch community. 

The government's failure to address the issue and its violent response to the peaceful protests deepen resentment and trust deficits among the Balochis. These protests are a sign of the state's unwillingness to protect the Baloch community and its interests.

Pakistan: PTI’s failed protest
Nuha Aamina
 
In the news
On 28 November, a resolution to ban Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf in a cabinet meeting was passed in the Balochistan Assembly. Separately, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called for the formation of an anti-riot force. On the same day, a PTI member on the basis of anonymity revealed that senior PTI members had critiscised Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur and Khan’s wife, Bushra Bibi for carrying out the protests to D-Chowk.  A senior PTI leader,  Shaukat Yousafzai opined that Chief Minister Gandapur was scapegoated as Bushra Bibi, who was neither a member nor the leader of the party called the shots in the three-day protest. 

On 27 November, frontier constabulary and about 1,500 policemen were ordered to evacuate the PTI protestors from D-Chowk, Islamabad. It resulted in nearly, 1,000 protestors being detained. Additionally, PTI founder, Imran Khan claimed that eight were killed. Meanwhile, Gandapur, who led the PTI convoy from his province, claimed that hundreds were shot by state authorities. 

On 26 November, the Home Department of Punjab issued an extension of Section 144 until 28 November and invoked Article 245. This provision allows the government to call on the army forces to enforce a “Law and Order” situation. 

On 25 November, clashes between PTI supporters and security personnel broke out claimed the life of a police officer at the Hakla interchange. Separately, a government delegation negotiated with a PTI team regarding the shift in protest venue from D-Chowk to Sangjiani. During a press brief, Minister of Interior Mohsin Naqvi claimed that the PTI had received Khan’s approval to change the venue. However, Bushra Bibi carried the protest to the originally decided venue. 

Issues at large
First, an interparty deadlock. Days before the 24 November protests were launched, party negotiations were underway between the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf and the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML-N). The former proposed the release of Khan, while the latter made assurances to the PTI. Both sides failed to agree to one another’s demands. The Islamabad High Court declared the protests illegal as the capital’s administration imposed a ban for two months ahead of the 24 November demonstrations. Nonetheless, there was a communication between the government and the PTI, where the government asked the opposition to shift the protest destination from Sangjiani to D-Chowk. This request did receive Khan’s approval however the ground realities were far different. 

Second, PTI’s miscalculation. Khan’s exaggerated call for the “do or die” protests did not go as planned. The party’s recurrent calls for protests have not brought about any ground-breaking results. As a consequence it has led to dwindling crowds and even eroded the party’s credibilty. The hastiness of the protests resulted in a setback for the party as they were not only illegal but it also led to arrest warrants against PTI affiliates. Since the protests did not have any major impact on the government, it brings to question of whether the public has rejected such an approach. 

Third, discord within the PTI. The continuation of the protest to D-Chowk instead of Sangjani led to wide led criticism within the PTI. It reflected upon the existing faultines within the party. Similar events took place when some PTI  members of the National Assembly confirmed their membership to the Parliamentary Committee on Judges' Appointments, responsible for the appointment of judges to the newly constituted Judicial Commission. The editorial mentioned above also observed how the party has been experiencing a form of brain drain where the “saner” leadership is stepping down while the populist leaders resort to big talk, conspiracy theories, and contentious statements to mobilize the polity. 

In perspective
The use of force and growing state disenchantment may cause backlash for the government. The short-term gain for the state further resulted in the portrayal of the PTI being mistreated. With the existing public discontent among the masses as the federation has not made many popular decisions, the clamp down on the protests further widens the gap between the people and the state. Instead, the government should have allowed the demonstrations to carry on as per schedule and neutralized violent exchanges that may have emerged in the process. 

On the other hand, the PTI also needs to stop taking to the streets and start engaging in deliberations and addressing its internal issues before campaigning against the government.  

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Anu Maria Joseph, Padmashree Anandhan, Ayan Datta, Sayeka Ghosh and Neha Tresa George

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Prisoners swap deal with the US
On 27 November, a US National Security Council (NSC) spokesperson announced that three US detainees in China were released in a prison swap deal. The exchange took months of negotiations. Incumbent US President Joe Biden expressed his concerns regarding the wrongful imprisonment of US nationals in China to President Xi Jinping during the Asia Pacific Economic Corporation (APEC) Summit. The NSC spokesperson said: “Thanks to this Administration’s efforts and diplomacy with the PRC, all of the wrongfully detained Americans in the PRC are home.” Two of the prisoners were imprisoned over espionage charges and one for narcotics trafficking. 

China: Beijing condemns US arms sale to Taiwan 
On 1 December, China condemned the US’ USD 385 million arms sale to Taiwan, including F-16 aircraft spare parts and radar equipment. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared that it will take “strong and resolute countermeasures” to defend national sovereignty. The ministry’s spokesperson criticised the sale for violating the one-China principle and international law and undermining the peace across the Taiwan Strait. China asserted that the arms deal contradicts US leadership commitments and sends an inappropriate signal to “Taiwan independence” separatist forces. The statement demanded the US immediately cease supporting Taiwan’s military and the separatist movement. 

China: The US warned over Taiwan leader's “stopover” in Hawaii
On 1 December, China condemned the US approval of Taiwan’s leader Lai Ching-te’s “stopover” in Hawaii. Lai arrived in Hawaii for a “stopover” during his trip to "diplomatic allies" in the Pacific. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasised that the Taiwan question is a critical red line in Sino-US relations and firmly opposes any official interactions between the US and Taiwan. The State Council Taiwan Affairs Office of China spokesperson Chen Binhua accused Lai’s administration of persistently pursuing “Taiwan independence,” and threatening cross-Strait stability. China warned that the international community’s commitment to the one-China principle remains unchanged regardless of Lai's diplomatic manoeuvres. The ministry pledged to take “resolute and strong measures” to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity. 

China: US export restriction on 140 semiconductor companies
On 2 December, the US imposed a third crackdown on China’s semiconductor industry through export restrictions on 140 companies. The US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo stated that this move aimed at preventing China from advancing its domestic semiconductor manufacturing for military modernisation. The new measures target chip equipment makers, high-bandwidth memory chips and sensitive technological sectors. China condemned the action as “economic coercion,” with China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Lin Jian arguing that such restrictions undermine international trade order. Despite China’s efforts to achieve self-sufficiency, the country remains behind in the advanced chip technology industry. 

Taiwan: First Chinese balloon sighted since April 
On 25 November, Taiwan’s Ministry of Defence tracked a Chinese balloon hovering at 33,000 feet, 60 nautical miles north of Keelung Port. It is the first incident since April. Previously, China claimed these were merely meteorological devices, although Taiwan saw them as part of Beijing’s “grey-zone warfare” to exhaust Taiwan’s defences without a direct confrontation. The latest balloon was visible for an hour without entering Taiwan’s airspace. 

North Korea: UN passes 20th resolution condemning human rights violations
On 20 November, the UN General Assembly’s Third Committee unanimously passed its 20th resolution condemning North Korea's human rights violations. The resolution underscored North Korea’s recent statements abandoning its reunification goal with South Korea. It denounced the authoritarian regime for curbing rights to freedom of thought, expression, or religion. The resolution demanded the immediate return of abductees and a high-level meeting to discuss the continued abuses. South Korea’s Deputy Ambassador Kim Sang-jin called the situation “crimes against humanity.” North Korea’s UN Ambassador Kim Song rejected the resolution as a “political plot.” 

North Korea: Kim Jong-un calls for limitless nuclear expansion
On 18 November, North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un announced the expansion of nuclear capabilities “without limitation.” The remarks were made during the 4th Conference of Battalion Commanders and Political Instructors of the Korean People's Army (KPA). In an address to battalion commanders, Kim stated: "We will strengthen our self-defense power, centered on nuclear forces, without limitation, not being content (with our current level) and ceaselessly.” He accused the “critical” trilateral alliance of the US, South Korea and Japan as a threat to peace on the Korean Peninsula. Kim claimed that the US and its allies are heightening international conflicts, particularly making Ukraine “shock troops” against Russia. 

North Korea: Wig trade and link to forced labour in prison camps
On 1 December, The Korea Times quoted a report by the Citizens’ Alliance for North Korean Human Rights that approximately 70 per cent of North Korea’s wig exports are produced through forced labour of female inmates in correctional camps. At the Chongori Correctional Camp No 12 in North Hamgyong Province, 80 per cent of the 1,000 annual inmates are women, and many of them are repatriated defectors from China. They endure harsh conditions, including beatings, hazardous work and limited food, resulting in a 25 per cent mortality rate annually. The report claims that North Korea partners with Chinese firms using the Rason Special Economic Zone to export goods like wigs and artificial eyelashes labelled as “made in China,” bypassing sanctions. From 2016 to August 2024, forced labour at Chongori generated USD 1.2 million for the regime. The report describes the system as state-sponsored human trafficking.

North Korea: Reaffirms support for Russia’s Ukraine war 
On 29 November, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un met with Russia’s Minister of Defence Andrei Belousov and expressed support for Russia’s military actions in Ukraine. Kim condemned Western missile support to Ukraine, calling it a “direct” military intervention and affirmed Russia’s right to self-defence. Meanwhile, Belousov indicated a willingness to enhance mutually beneficial relations. North Korea has reportedly sent thousands of troops to Russia’s western Kursk region, raising international concerns about expanding the Ukraine conflict. 

North Korea: Senior officer wounded in Kursk
On 21 November, Kyiv Post quoted a Wall Street Journal report that a North Korean senior general was wounded in a recent airstrike by Ukraine in Kursk. This is the first time the casualty of a North Korean high-ranking official has been reported after North Korean troops were confirmed to be supporting Russia in its war against Ukraine. It is estimated that 10,000 North Korean troops are currently deployed in Russia. 

South Korea: President Yoon calls for global action against North Korea-Russia military partnership 
On 19 November, at the G20 Summit, South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol emphasized the need for a collective international response to stop North Korea-Russia military cooperation. Yoon asked G20 leaders to defend the rules-based international order and said: “I strongly urge North Korea and Russia to immediately cease their illegal military cooperation.” His remarks come as a response to Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov’s speech, which did not have details on Russia’s Ukraine invasion or Moscow’s rapport with Pyongyang. Yoon’s condemnation aligned with the sentiments of US President Joe Biden, Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. 

South Korea: Reveals advanced L-SAM missile defence system to counter North Korean threats
On 29 November, South Korea revealed the domestic Long-range Surface-to-Air Missile (L-SAM) system, designed to intercept targets at 50 to 60 kilometres. South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol described the development as “groundbreaking progress” to respond to North Korea’s nuclear threats. The new system will integrate into the Korea Air and Missile Defense (KAMD), a critical component of South Korea’s three-axis deterrence strategy. South Korea’s Minister of Defence Kim Yong-hyun warned North Korea that any missile provocation would be met with a defence system that would exact a price of “the end of its regime.”

Japan: Joint fighter jet development with the UK and Italy
On 20 November, The Japan Times reported that Japan, the UK, and Italy reaffirmed their commitment to the Global Combat Air Program (GCAP) to build a next-generation supersonic jet by 2035. The leaders met on the sidelines of the G20 summit and highlighted GCAP as a foundation for long-term defence partnership. This development comes as the three countries recently ratified the GCAP treaty which oversees aircraft capabilities and industrial strategies. 

Northern Mariana Islands: Governor supports USD 800 million US military upgrade 
On 20 November, The Guardian reported on the governor of the Northern Mariana Islands, Arnold Palacios, backing the USD 800 million US military upgrade commenting “has to happen” amidst China’s recent missile tests. Palacios stated: “The world is changing in the Indo-Pacific and we need to acknowledge that. We need to face reality.” The US defence plan was announced in 2022. It includes rehabilitation of a runway, training facilities and strategic military infrastructure in Tinian. The US Department of Defense intends to lease two-thirds of the island's land to spend money on airport restoration, operational improvements and combat training sites. Lieutenant Commander Michelle Tucker commented on the strategic importance of the island, calling it “critical to US defense and power projection across the region.” 

Fiji: Defence agreement with the US
On 26 November, ABC News reported on the new defence pact signed between Fiji and the US. The agreement aims to increase joint exercises and military-to-military engagements. Fiji's Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka said: “We are here to talk about peace, and how we guard, protect, and promote that peace,” and “we all pray it's not an indication that we are looking at some dangerous years ahead.” The agreement promised USD 55 million to support Fiji’s military modernization and bolster bilateral cooperation. 

Myanmar: Military fight local resistance groups along the Rakhine-Magwe border
On 26 November, The Irrawaddy reported on the clashes along the Ann-Padan road along the border of Rakhine State and Magwe region. The local resistance groups along the border were trying to block the military reinforcements from reaching Ann Township. The road was crucial for the Myanmar military to transport troops and supplies after the Arakan Army (AA) launched an offensive in the Ann township. This development comes as the AA attempts to capture Ann Township. 

Myanmar: Military recaptures the Madaya township in Mandalay region
On 26 November, The Irrawaddy reported that Myanmar’s military recaptured the western Madaya Township in the Mandalay region. According to the anti-regime groups, 200 Myanmar soldiers and the Pyu Saw Htee militia invaded the village. The People’s Defence Forces spokesperson said that they withdrew from the village temporarily as part of a tactic. He added that the military could not attack eastern Mandalay where they were better organised. The recapture has forced many people to flee from their homes.

Myanmar: China hands over the troops who fled amidst KIA’s offensive 
On 25 November, The Irrawaddy reported that the People's Liberation Army of China transferred the Myanmar military soldiers who fled Kanpiketi after the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) took control of the town. Around 302 soldiers were returned to the military at the Man Wein border gate along the border of Jiegao in China’s Yunnan Province. Hundreds of troops were forced to flee as KIA took control of Kanpiketi despite warnings from China. KIA controls most of the Kachin state except the capital Myitkyina and the surrounding area.

Papua New Guinea: Escalating HIV crisis, RNZ Pacific interview with B4H head
On 30 November, during an interview by the RNZ Pacific, the head of the NGO Business for Health (B4H) Ann Clarke stated that Papua New Guinea confronted a dire HIV situation on World AIDS Day, with 6,700 new infections the previous year, bringing the total estimated HIV affected population to 77,000. Clarke warned that the country has “dropped the ball” on comprehensive sexual health education. While 48,000 individuals receive antiretroviral therapy, about 28,330 have achieved viral suppression. The crisis affects diverse populations, predominantly sex workers and LGBTQ+ people. Clarke emphasised the importance of understanding their rights to free testing, treatment and reasonable accommodations in the workplace. She added that the lack of awareness would lead to individuals avoiding help due to shame.

South Asia
Pakistan: JUI-F leader killed in South Waziristan
On 18 November, Dawn reported that a bomb explosion in the Lower South Waziristan’s Azam Warsak market killed a local Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) leader, Mufti Ejazul Haq. The attack injured five others. Previously, on 14 November, Jamaat-i-Islami’s Mohammad Hamid Sufi was shot dead by unidentified men in Bajaur. On 17 November, militants killed a soldier in Tirah valley during the exchange of fire. Six militants were killed in the same incident. 

Pakistan: Armed men abduct seven policemen at gunpoint in Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
On 19 November, Dawn reported that unidentified armed men abducted seven police personnel at gunpoint from Rocha Check Post in Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The armed men seized the rifles of the police personnel. Police began a search operation to locate the abducted policemen.

Pakistan: Multiple militant attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa kill several security officials
On 20 November, Dawn reported that the exchange of gunfire between militants and security officials in Tirah valley resulted in the death of eight security officials. Three other security officials were injured and nine militants were killed. The Inter-Services Public Relations did not confirm the numbers. Shop owners of Tirah valley protested, calling for peace and remuneration for their shops, vandalized during the mortar shelling. Separately, on 19 November, a suicide attack in Bannu killed several security officials. 

Pakistan: Apex committee approves full-blown operation against terror groups in Balochistan
On 19 November, the Pakistan Armed Forces received the consent of the National Action Plan apex board to launch a full-scale military campaign in Balochistan against terrorism. The apex committee pledged to reinvigorate the National Counter-Terrorism Authority (Nacta). Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif vowed to demolish the proscribed Balochistan Liberation Army which has claimed responsibility for many attacks in the last few months. The apex committee consented to operations against other proscribed militant organizations such as Majeed Brigade, Balochistan Liberation Army, Balochistan Liberation Front and Baloch Raaji Aajoi Sangar.

Bangladesh: EU funds gender-equality project
On 26 November, the EU Ambassador in Bangladesh, Michael Miller, underscored the need to ensure homes, workplaces and public spheres are free from gender-based violence. This statement comes after the EU and the Bangladesh Rehabilitation Assistance Committee (Brac), a non-governmental organization, launched SHIKHA. It is a EUR 4.8 million project that aims at achieving SDG 5 on gender equality and strengthening response and prevention mechanisms for gender-based violence. 

India: Cyclone Fengal hits Puducherry and Tamil Nadu
On 30 November, Cyclone Fengal caused landfall in the Union Territory of Puducherry and the state of Tamil Nadu. Puducherry experienced the highest record rainfall in the last three decades, surpassing 490 millimetres. Separately, the cyclone hit the Villupuram district of Tamil Nadu. About 504 millimetres of rainfall was recorded in Mailam, Nemmeli witnessed 46 centimetres and Vanur experienced 41 centimetres. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin announced relief efforts led by six ministers and secretaries.
 
Sri Lanka: Russian embassy dismisses reports of young people forcibly taken to fight Ukraine
On 3 December, according to the Daily Mirror, the Russian embassy in Colombo responded to reports alleging that young people were forcefully made to fight in the Russian Army against Ukraine. This development comes after a parent approached the police to rescue their son, who among several others, was allegedly forced to join the Russian Army. In response, the Russian authorities said that they “respect all foreigners arriving” in Russia and “are ready to provide them with job opportunities based on their personal choice, competencies, and available vacancies.”

Sri Lanka: Rainfall and floods affect 400,000 people
On 28 November, the Disaster Management Centre (DMC) of Sri Lanka reported that the floods affected an estimated 401,707 people across 24 districts; 12 died. The worst-affected district was Mannar, followed by Jaffna. A depression in the southwest of the Bay of Bengal caused the heavy rainfall. It was forecasted to move towards Sri Lanka’s eastern coast and cause severe rainfall in the Northern Province and the Trincomalee district.

The Middle East and Africa
Israel-Palestine: Continuing offensive
On 5 December, the Palestinian Ministry of Health in the West Bank called for international intervention to stop Israel's attacks on the healthcare system. The call came after Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) attacked a hospital in Nablus. The Palestinian Health Ministry called on “international institutions” and the Red Cross to “intervene immediately to stop the occupation’s attacks on treatment centres and staff, demanding immediate protection for the health system and all its components." The Israeli government stated: “The security forces will continue to operate wherever necessary to thwart terrorism in the area and to maintain the safety of Israeli civilians."

On the same day, Amnesty International released a report titled "You Feel Like You Are Subhuman: Israel’s Genocide Against Palestinians in Gaza," accusing Israel of carrying out a genocide in Gaza. On 4 December, Al Jazeera reported that at least 50 people were killed in an IDF strike across southern Gaza.

On 2 December, Al Jazeera quoted Hamas that the group has killed 33 of its captives held in Gaza since the war began. The group stated that the captives were killed “because of the stubbornness of the war criminal” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and “his ongoing aggression."

Israel-Lebanon: Warring parties accuse each other of violating the ceasefire; Israel carries out multiple airstrikes in southern Lebanon
On 2 December, ten people were killed in Southern Lebanon in an Israeli air strike. On 30 November, the Lebanese National News Agency (NNA) reported that Israeli forces carried out several attacks in southern Lebanon, killing two people, despite the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. Another drone attack in the town of Majdal Zoun in the Tyre district injured three people, according to Lebanon's Ministry of Public Health. the US-France-backed ceasefire came into effect on 27 November. However, a day after, IDF claimed that they spotted activity at a Hezbollah weapons facility and carried out air strikes at the suspects. Israel and Lebanon accused each other of violating the already fragile ceasefire. 

Syria: Rebel advance and the fall of Aleppo and Hama
On 5 December, Al-Monitor reported that the rebel Islamist militant group in Syria, Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS) captured the city of Hama. The commander of HTS, Hassan Abdul-Ghani, announced the "complete liberation" of the city. Later, the Syrian military announced the redeployment of troops outside Hama "to preserve civilian lives and prevent urban combat."

On 4 December, President Bashar al-Assad promised to "crush" the rebels and accused the West of trying to redraw the map of the region. Meanwhile, Russia and Iran offered "unconditional support" to  Assad's regime.

On 28 November, the rebel Islamist militant group in Syria, Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham (HTS) launched a major offensive in north-western Syria. HTS and allied factions reportedly seized control of several towns and villages in Aleppo and Idlib provinces. Meanwhile, the Assad regime's major ally, Russia, responded with airstrikes, for the first time since 2012. On 29 November, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that more than 300 people including 20 civilians were killed in the clashes. 
 
The UAE: Israeli-Moldovan Rabbi killed by four Uzbek nationals 
On 25 November, the UAE’s Ministry of Interior released pictures and identities of three Uzbek individuals arrested for allegedly murdering Israeli-Moldovan Rabbi Zvi Kogen, residing in the Chabad Chapter Jewish community centre in Abu Dhabi. On 24 November, the UAE government found the body of Israeli Rabbi Avi Kogan in Al Ain city. Israel’s embassy in Abu Dhabi called the death “a despicable antisemitic act of terror.” Additionally, the Chabad Chapter, with which Kogan was affiliated, stated that he was “murdered by terrorists after being abducted.” The rabbi was reported missing on 23 November from Abu Dhabi. Kogan was affiliated with UAE’s Chabad Jewish Community Centre since Abu Dhabi normalised diplomatic ties with Israel in 2020. 

Israel: Continuing hostilities against Hezbollah 
On 26 November, Hezbollah rockets injured two elderly Israeli civilians in northern Israel’s Nahariya town, leading to fears that the armed group would increase its rocket attacks as Israel and Lebanon were about to declare a ceasefire. On 23 November, a soldier from the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) Golani brigades was reported wounded during clashes with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Additionally, Israel continued its bombardment of Beirut, killing 11 people in an airstrike which Israel said targeted an unnamed Hezbollah leader. On 22 November, Israel continued its bombing in southern Lebanon and Beirut’s suburban areas, killing five medical personnel and destroying an 11-storey building. Additionally, Israel’s ground forces continued engaging Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon, with the latter using rockets and artillery against Israel. Furthermore, four Italian soldiers of the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) were killed in southern Lebanon’s Chamaa village. Italy’s Prime Minister Georgia Meloni expressed “deep indignation and concern” over the fresh wave of attacks suffered by UN peacekeepers during the conflict.

Lebanon: Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire takes effect 
On 27 November, Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire proposed by the US and France. The plan involves a 60-day phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) entering the region to prevent Hezbollah from reconstituting its capabilities. US President Joe Biden stated that the ceasefire was “designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities…What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organisations will not be allowed to threaten the security of Israel again.” Separately, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that despite agreeing to the ceasefire plan, Israel was “preserving full military freedom of action,” adding that it would resume operations if Hezbollah rearms or attacks Israel. Netanyahu said that the ceasefire would enable Israel to focus on Iran, isolate Hamas, and allow the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) to rebuild its capabilities. Separately, Lebanon’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdallah Bou Habib stated that the LAF would deploy over 5,000 troops in southern Lebanon to enforce the ceasefire, with multiple actors overseeing it, including the US and France. On the same day, Hezbollah official Hassan Fadlallah stated that the group would re-emerge stronger from the conflict. Fadlallah emphasised that Israel wanted to disarm Hezbollah but failed. Additionally, Lebanon’s Hezbollah-affiliated Al-Akhbar newspaper featured a picture portraying the armed group as “Steadfast..and victorious.” However, no party disclosed the full and exact terms of the ceasefire.

Nigeria: 24 people killed in violent crackdown on protests, Amnesty International report
On 28 November, Amnesty International released a report titled “Bloody August: Nigerian Government’s Violent Crackdown on #Endbadgovernance Protests” revealing that at least 24 people were killed between 1 and 10 August in six states of Nigeria in a violent crackdown on protests. The protests were against soaring inflation, unemployment and hunger. Amnesty International Nigeria’s Director stated: “Security forces used live ammunition on peaceful protesters, showing a shocking disregard for human life. The true death toll may be higher due to government efforts to cover up the violence.” 

Mozambique: The US, the UK and Canada denounce post-election violence
On 28 November, the UK, the US and Canada denounced the “escalation of violence against civilians” during the post-election violence in Mozambique the previous week. The countries called on Mozambique’s government to investigate the irrational use of force and bring the responsible to justice. The protests erupted after the ruling Frelimo party won the elections and the opposition dismissed the results as fraudulent.

Uganda: 15 people killed in landslides amidst heavy rains
On 28 November, Al Jazeera reported that at least 15 people were killed and more than 100 others are missing after heavy rains and landslides in eastern Uganda. Landslides were reported in six villages of the Bulambuli district. 

Namibia: Tensions after election “irregularities”
On 30 November, Al Jazeera reported on increasing tensions in Namibia after the controversial parliamentary and presidential elections. The Electoral Commission of Namibia (ECN) announced a delay amidst “logistical” failure in several polling stations. The opposition Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) party protested against the delay suspecting “irregularities.” IPC presidential candidate Panduleni Itula stated that “regrettably, there has been a multitude of irregularities” and that there was “no other alternative than for the citizens to carry out what is proposed by the [ECN] to its conclusion.” While IPC hopes to end 34 years of rule by the South West Africa People’s Organisation (Swapo) party, Swapo’s candidate Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah aims to become the country’s first female president. 

Guinea: 56 people killed in a stampede
On 2 December, Al Jazeera reported that at least 56 people were killed in a violent clash in Guinea during a football match. The clashes erupted over dissatisfaction with the referee’s decision. The rival supporters threw stones which resulted in a stampede. Guinea’s Prime Minister Bah Oury condemned the violence and called for calm. The angry protesters vandalised and set fire to the N’Zerekore police station. The tournament was organised honouring the coup leader Mamady Doumbouya. Guinea’s National Alliance for Alternation and Democracy (ANAD), a coalition of opposition parties, called it an attempt to solidify Doumbouya’s “illegal and inappropriate candidacy.” 

Senegal: 80 years after French colonial massacre of soldiers
On 1 December, Senegal commemorated the 80th anniversary of a colonial-era massacre of Senegalese soldiers who fought for France during the Second World War. The soldiers were shot by the French soldiers in 1944 for demanding fair treatment and payment. The French military claims that 35-70 soldiers were killed, although historians claim 400. Although France has acknowledged the massacre, it never apologised. France’s President Emmanuel Macron wrote in an acknowledging letter: “France must recognise that on that day, the confrontation between soldiers and riflemen who demanded their full, legitimate wages triggered a chain of events that resulted in a massacre.” The commemoration ceremony was attended by France’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Stephane Sejourne. 

Nigeria: 27 people killed in boat accident in Niger river
On 30 November, Al Jazeera reported that at least 27 people died after a boat capsized on the Niger river in Central Nigeria. There were around 200 passengers in the boat, travelling from the state of Kogi to Niger. Kogi State Governor Ahmed Usman Ododo stated that the majority of the victims were women, traders and artisans “involved in legitimate business activities to earn a living and contribute to the economy of the state.” 

Europe and The Americas
Georgia: Protests outside the parliament against the election results
On 25 November, Euronews reported that Georgian protestors gathered in front of the parliament before the first session of the newly-elected government. The opposition party members expressed their discontent and boycotted parliamentary activities. The leader of the Unity National Movement coalition, Khatia Dekanoidze, said that the Georgian Dream Party did not have the legitimacy to govern the Georgian people. The ongoing protest is over the alleged rigging of election results to promote a pro-Russian government. The people condemned the party to be increasingly authoritarian and pro-Russian. Georgia’s President Salome Zourabichvili rejected the election results and intended to move to the constitutional court.

Spain: Protests against spiking housing rents in Barcelona
On 24 November, Euronews reported on the protests in Barcelona over the surge in housing rents. The protestors took to the streets by holding sign boards saying “Fewer apartments for investing and more homes for living" and “The people without homes uphold their rights.” They were demanding a 50 per cent cut in the rents. According to the protestors, over 1,26,000 people participated while police claimed it to be 22,000. The protestors threatened to go on a “rent strike” if no measures were taken. The latest move by the government was a rent cap mechanism that could be applied to areas branded “highly stressed.” The government promised to remove the city's 10,000 "tourist apartments" by 2028. The housing crisis in Spain was peaking with Spaniards spending 40 per cent of their income on rent compared to the EU’s estimated average of 27 per cent.

The UK: USAF reports three unidentified drones over air bases
On 24 November, the United States Air Force (USAF) reported that unidentified drones were detected over three air bases in the UK. It said that between 20 and 26 November, “small UAVS” were detected over Royal Air Force (RAF) Lakenheath, RAF Mildenhall in Suffolk, and RAF Feltwell in Norfolk, eastern England. However, the use of the drones remained unclear. USAF said: “The UAVs were actively monitored and installation leaders determined that none of the incursions impacted base residents or critical infrastructure.” It assured that it would monitor airspaces and continue working with other countries to confirm the safety of air spaces.

The UK: Case filed at the WTO against China’s tariffs on Brandy
On 25 November, the EU filed a case in the World Trade Organization (WTO) against Chinese tariffs on European brandy. This comes amidst increasing trade tensions between China and Europe. In October, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced that it would collect 39 per cent anti-dumping duties on liquors and cognac from France. The move was said to be in retaliation to the EU’s imposition of increased tariffs on Chinese EVs. A request was made for consultation at WTO. China has ten days to respond and resolve the consultation. European Commission’s outgoing trade commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said that “China’s provisional measures on EU brandy are not based on facts, and thus are not in line with WTO rules” and that “the EU takes very seriously any unfair or questionable use of trade defence instruments against any sector of our economy.” China’s Ministry of Commerce said they received the consultation request and will handle it under WTO rules. They noted that the measures taken are legitimate and in line with Chinese law. 

Europe: Storm Bert affects Ireland and the UK causing an outage in 60,000 houses
On 23 November, winter storm Bert hit regions across the UK and Ireland causing strong winds, heavy rain, snow and ice. The weather forecasters referred to it as a “multi-hazard” event. The weather led to closed airports, roads, ferry and train routes. It also led to the death of two people in southern and northern England. The heavy rains caused flooding and made some roads impassable. The storm also led to an electricity outage in some 60,000 properties overnight. Extreme snow was also reported in Scotland and northern and central England. 

Russia: First use of Oreshnik missile developed on new modern technology
On 22 November, RT reported on Russia’s new Oreshnik missile. It was first used on 21 November 2024 to attack a Ukrainian defence facility in the city of Dnepropetrovsk. Putin said that the attack was a response to Ukraine’s use of the US and UK-made ATACMS missiles. The missile is a new development manufactured through modern Russian technology and not an upgrade of Soviet-era missile systems. It is characterised by high precision and hypersonic speed, making it difficult to intercept. It has a large striking power and a strong collective use. Putin confirmed the mass production of the missile, following its successful test and first use. According to General Sergei Karakayev, Head of Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces, it could strike targets “throughout Europe.” 

Ukraine: President Zelenskyy condemns Russia for its intensified attacks using Shahed drones
On 24 November, The Guardian quoted Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy highlighting Russia’s intensified attacks with Shahed drones. He said that Russia used almost 500 drones and more than 20 missiles in the previous week. He added: “Ukraine is not a testing ground for weapons. Ukraine is a sovereign and independent state.” A Ukrainian official reported on the two Russian factories in Tatarstan, 800 miles from the Ukraine border, manufacturing hundreds of the distinctive delta-winged Shahed 136 drones, called Geran-2. According to Ukraine’s data, around 2,023, Shahed drones were launched by Russia in October. Zelenskyy said that greater efforts were taken with Ukraine’s partners. They were also aiming to develop cheap first-person view (FPV) drones capable of intercepting Shahed drones.

Ukraine: The UK-made Storm Shadow missiles launched into Russia
On 20 November, Bloomberg reported on Ukraine using UK-made Storm Shadow missiles into Russia. As of 2023, the UK had allowed the usage of those missiles only within Ukrainian territory. The UK has followed a pursuit after the US President Joe Biden's approval. The Storm Shadow missiles have a range of 250 kilometres and would aid Ukraine in targeting deep into Russia. Earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on UK’s supply of Storm Shadow missiles to be considered a direct engagement of NATO.

Ukraine: Russia attacks Ternopil in western Ukraine
On 2 December, The Kyiv Independent reported on a Russian drone attack on Ternopil in western Ukraine. According to Ternopil Mayor Serhiy Nadal, the attack killed one person and injured three. He said: “Doctors are doing everything possible to save the wounded.” The emergency services and rescue teams tried to put down the fire and prepare temporary shelters for the rescued residents.

Ukraine: The US announces USD 725 million as military assistance
On 2 December, The New York Times reported that the Pentagon announced USD 725 million in military assistance for Ukraine. This would include anti-personnel land mines, drones, portable antiaircraft missiles and anti-tank missiles. The Pentagon stated that these were part of increasing security aid to Ukraine as it was bracing for a new offensive from Russia. The arms were provided under the provision of “presidential drawdown authority.” Otherwise, the defence contractors would take months or years to manufacture the weapons. Until now, there have been a total of 15 drawdowns with USD 4.6 billion in arms, ammunition, vehicles and other supplies.

Ukraine: Explosion in the Dnipro region
On 1 December, Ukrinform reported that an explosion in the Dniprovskyi district of the Dnipro region injured 25 people. According to the Head of the Dnipro Regional Military Administration Serhiy Lysak, efforts were made to minimise the consequences of the attack. Lysak stated: “Philanthropists are working at the site. People receive building materials to repair their damaged homes. Kits for a quick recovery - boards, film.” He added that a mobile station was deployed to monitor the situation. 

Denmark: Chinese vessel alleged of cutting undersea cables
On 25 November, Denmark’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Lars Lokke Rasmussen announced they are monitoring Chinese vessel activities in the Baltic Sea as two undersea cables were cut. The ministry held a “diplomatic dialogue” with China over the sections of telecom cable cut on 17 and 18 November in Swedish waters. A Chinese cargo ship, the Yi Peng 3, was detained by the Danish coastguard for two days after it was suspected of sailing over the cables around the same time they were severed. Sweden and Finland have launched a police investigation with European officials as they suspect deliberate sabotage by China linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine. The Kremlin deemed them “absurd” and “laughable.”

Europe: Activists from Curacao and Mayotte call for climate change justice 
On 2 December, Euronews reported on the growing crisis across the island between the Dutch Caribbean and France’s Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte. Issues including rising sea levels, temperatures and extreme weather events such as droughts and hurricanes have been borne by small islands. Activists from Curacao and Mayotte claim that it is underfunded and overlooked. This is mainly due to territories being under colonial control, limiting autonomy to tackle climate change. According to one of the Climate activists from Curaçao: “The Dutch government has thrown most of the responsibility for climate adaptation into the laps of the territories themselves, and are extremely flaky with regards to funding and implementation.” Those living on the island hope that the public hearing at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will lead to greater recognition for small island states and climate-vulnerable territories. 

The US: 29 Chinese firms added to the Uygur Forced Labour Prevention Act list
On 22 November, the US Department of Homeland Security blacklisted 29 Chinese companies over forced labour in Xinjiang according to the Uygur Forced Labour Prevention Act (UFLPA). The blacklisted companies that use forced labour are not allowed to export products to the US. The UFLPA list includes entities that sell high-tech inputs, polysilicon and food products. US Homeland Security undersecretary for policy Robert Silvers said: “Today’s enforcement actions make it clear – the United States will not tolerate forced labour in the goods entering our markets.” He urged that companies need to take responsibility and ethically source their products.

The US: President Trump to impose tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada to deter illegal migration and drug trafficking
On 26 November, newly elected US President Donald Trump said he would impose new tariffs on China, Mexico and Canada. The measures aim to deter illegal immigration and drug smuggling into the US. He noted that immediately after his initiation on 20 January 2025, he will executive an order to impose 25 per cent tariffs on all goods from Canada and Mexico. Additionally, he plans to impose ten per cent additional tariffs until the smuggling of fentanyl is cracked down. China’s embassy to the US stated: “The idea of China knowingly allowing fentanyl precursors to flow into the United States runs completely counter to facts and reality.” During his campaign, Trump threatened to impose 100 per cent tariffs against China and Mexico if needed. 

Issues
Gender: More women face gender violence at home, UNODC report
On 25 November, the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) released a report on gender violence. The report was published on the International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women. According to the report, an average of 140 women and girls were killed daily in 2023 by their family members. It reported that 60 per cent of 85,000 women and girls killed in 2023 were by their family member or partner. The report also claims that Africa is most vulnerable to gender-based violence with an estimated 21,700 women and girls being killed. The report stated: “Women and girls everywhere continue to be affected by this extreme form of gender-based violence and no region is excluded. The home is the most dangerous place for women and girls.” It added: “An estimated 80 percent of all homicide victims in 2023 were men while 20 percent were women, but lethal violence within the family takes a much higher toll on women than men, with almost 60 percent of all women who were intentionally killed in 2023 being victims of intimate partner/family member homicide.” 

Climate Change: Developing countries dismiss USD 300 billion COP29 deal
On 23 November, Al Jazeera reported that the COP29 talks agreed on USD 300 billion to help developing countries adapt to climate change issues. The developing countries dismissed the agreement describing it as insufficient. A delegate from India, Leena Nandan, stated: “The amount that is proposed to be mobilised is abysmally poor. It’s a paltry sum. This document is little more than an optical illusion. This, in our opinion, will not address the enormity of the challenge we all face.” Delegations from small island countries walked out of the negotiations commenting that their interests were ignored. The chair of the Least Developed Countries (LDC) group Evans Njewa stated: “[The] current deal is unacceptable for us. We need to speak to other developing countries and decide what to do.”

About the authors
Vaneeta is a Postgraduate Student at Pondicherry University. Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Research Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad. 

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