The Rise of HTS and the Fall of Assad in Syria

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CWA # 1553

Conflict Weekly

The Rise of HTS and the Fall of Assad in Syria

IPRI Team
19 December 2024

Conflict Weekly #259&260, 19 December 2024, Vol.5, No.50 & 51
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Ayan Datta

Syria: HTS Consolidation and External Powers in Syria
Ayan Datta

In the news
On 17 December, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Syria’s interim Salvation Government leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (also known by his alias Mohammed Abu Al-Jolani) stated that all other armed groups in Syria would be “disbanded and the fighters trained to join the ranks of the defence ministry…All will be subject to the law… Syria must remain united.” Previously, on 14 December, HTS took control of southern Syria’s Daraa City and the Nassib border crossing from the Southern Operations Room, a Sunni armed group, with the latter agreeing to cooperate with the HTS.

On 16 December, Syria’s former President Bashar al-Assad gave his first public remarks since his ouster. He refuted prevailing beliefs that Assad had planned his exit from Syria, stressing that he stayed in the country until the “early hours of Sunday, December 8, 2024.” Assad allegedly oversaw the Syria Arab Army’s (SAA) operations from Russia’s military base in eastern Syria’s Latakia Governorate until his location came under attack from opposition forces’ drones. Assad insisted that he left the country with Russia’s assistance only when the threat from “terrorist forces” became overwhelming.

On 15 December, Russia’s military withdrew its military from northern Syria’s Manbij and Kobani regions. The decision followed a fresh offensive by the Turkey-backed Syrian National Army (SNA) against the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

On the same day, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that his government planned to double the Israeli population in the Golan Heights region by establishing settlements, citing the need to insulate the region from Syrian threats. Netanyahu stated that while Israel had “no interest in Syria,” his government intended to “thwart the potential threats from Syria and to prevent the takeover of terrorist elements near our border.”

On 14 December, Turkey reopened its embassy in Damascus. Ankara closed the embassy in 2012, citing mounting insecurities amidst the ongoing Syrian Civil War. On 13 December, Turkey’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, met US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, stressing their shared “imperative” to “ensure the elimination of the territorial caliphate of ISIS.” Additionally, Fidan raised Turkey’s conflict with the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), connecting the latter with the need to “prevent terrorism from gaining ground.”

On 12 December, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, blamed the US, Israel and Turkey for Assad’s defeat, branding the opposition groups as “aggressors.” Khamenei predicted that “resistance” would spread in the region, and “By God’s blessing, the territories occupied in Syria will be freed by the brave young people of Syria.”

Issues at large
First, the fall of Assad regime. Although former President Bashar al-Assad claimed his government to be the sole sovereign of Syria, much of the country has been controlled by various armed groups since the civil war began in 2011. Between 27 November and 10 December, anti-Assad armed groups, led by Al-Qaeda and ISIS offshoot called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), launched a fresh offensive against the government. Based on northwestern Syria’s Idlib city, HTS captured the SAA strongholds of Aleppo, Hama and Homs within two weeks, finally establishing an interim Syrian Salvation Government in Damascus on 10 December. According to the Institute for the Study of War, HTS leader Ahmed al-Shara is consolidating political and military power by integrating non-HTS armed groups into the interim government and securing control over the Assad government’s civilian and military institutions. For Jolani, with governance in hand, the HTS-led regime would have the legitimacy to exercise force and its armed force would be institutionalised under the Ministry of Defence. Other groups must disarm or cooperate with the government. Additionally, Syria’s relations with the international community shall be normalised, and sanctions imposed during Assad’s rule should be removed by political and diplomatic outreach to the West.

Second, Turkey, the US and the SNA-SDF conflict. In 2011, Turkey began training and arming the Syrian National Army (then called the Free Syrian Army) to counter the Kurdish-dominated, US-backed People’s Protection Units (which became the SDF in 2015) and overthrow Assad’s government. The SDF, with its local espionage capabilities, was crucial in Washington’s war against ISIS in Syria. Turkey wants to destroy the SDF and create buffer zones along the Syrian border. After Assad’s ouster, the SNA, backed by Turkey’s air force, launched a fresh offensive against the SDF strongholds in Manbij, al-Bab, and Tel Rifaat. The withdrawal of the anti-SNA Russian military further disadvantaged the SDF. So far, the US and Turkey have managed the SNA-SDF conflict diplomatically. While the US reached an informal agreement with Turkey to facilitate SDF fighters’ exit from Manbij, Ankara continues to justify its support for the SNA by categorising the PKK with ISIS and framing its anti-SDF operations as anti-terrorism.

Third, the Russia and Iran factors. Although Moscow arranged Assad’s safe exit from Damascus, the status of Russia’s naval base in Tartarus, air base in Khmeimim, and installations across formerly government-controlled regions remains uncertain. Moscow’s outreach to the HTS aims to retain its military presence. Additionally, Iran supported Assad by deploying the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria and providing his government with military and intelligence advisors. Although Iran-backed Hezbollah was active in supporting Assad during the civil war, both of them were engaged in military confrontation with Israel when HTS launched its offensive, making them unable to assist the Assad government.

Fourth, Israel and the Golan Heights. For Israel, Assad’s Syria was an Iranian proxy facilitating arms transfer from Iran to Hezbollah. Additionally, Israel believes that Syria might resume its anti-Israel role which must be met with pre-emptive military action. Israel exploited the power vacuum of Assad’s removal, destroying the SAA’s air force and naval capabilities in over 350 airstrikes. Additionally, Israel’s military occupied the Golan Heights buffer zone and stationed its troops on Mount Hermon on the Syria-Lebanon border, further entrenching its control over the contested region. Although al-Jolani stated that Israel used Assad’s removal for its self-interest, he wanted to focus on rebuilding the country and would avoid starting new conflicts, indicating that he tacitly accepted Israel’s increased presence.

In perspective
The HTS victory marked a watershed moment in Syria’s long-drawn civil war, with an alternative government being installed in Damascus after 13 years of fighting. With Assad’s primary backers, Iran (with Hezbollah) and Russia, preoccupied with other conflicts, HTS’ well-timed offensive overthrew over 50 years of Assad family rule. Although Jolani promises to govern through institutions, he has not clarified the rules and norms that his new institutions will implement. Therefore, Jolani’s international messaging may turn out to be the institutionalisation of Political Islam. Beginning in 2010, the Syrian conflict escalated rapidly from civic protest against authoritarianism to civil war before reaching its present form as a battleground of multiple state and non-state actors. HTS’ takeover has emboldened Israel and Turkey, who have exploited that opportunity to fulfil political and territorial ambitions. With Iran’s regional presence weakened, Israel’s assertive posture against the “Axis of Resistance” can be expected to continue.

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Anu Maria Joseph, Samruddhi Pathak, Ayan Datta, Sayeka Ghosh, Neha Tresa George, Nuha Aamina, Nova Karen, Vaishak Sreekumar, C Shraddha, and Kumari Krishna

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: PLA releases electronic warfare ‘kill list’ of US aircraft carriers
On 16 December, the South China Morning Post reported that the People’s Liberation Army’s electronic warfare unit released a list of targets for coordinate attacks against the US, in case of conflict. This was reported by Defence Industry Conversion in China, a magazine overlooked by China’s State Administration of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defence. The technology for attack includes radars, sensors, and communication systems. PLA’s electronic countermeasures expert Mo Jiaqian stated that China will have an advantage over the fatal weakness of the Cooperative Engagement Capability (CEC) system, a four-decade-old tech compared to the advancements of the Chinese military and civilian electronics.

China: India hosts 32nd WMCC meeting to discuss the dis-engagement agreement
On 6 December, China and India held the 32nd Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on Border Affairs in New Delhi. The meeting led by China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Hong Liang and India’s East Asia division’s Gourangalal Das brought together representatives from foreign affairs, defence, interior, and immigration departments. The two countries positively evaluated previous border-related solutions and committed to their comprehensive implementation. Focusing on preparations for upcoming special representatives’ talks, both sides emphasised maintaining communication through diplomatic and military channels.

China: The Philippines vessel sideswiped and water cannoned by the Chinese ship
On 4 December, the Philippines Coast Guard released a video of the Chinese Coast Guard blasting water on the country’s fishery department vessel. Another video showcased the Philippines Coast Guard shouting “collision” as China’s vessels rammed into the Philippines' vessel. The Philippines Coast Guard informed that the Chinese vessel deliberately sideswiped their ship and launched water cannon attack. Meanwhile, the Chinese Coast Guard informed that the Philippine vessel came dangerously close. the US Ambassador to the Philippines MaryKay Carlson condemned China’s action. He added: “The unlawful use of water cannons and dangerous manoeuvres disrupted a Philippine maritime operation ... putting lives at risk.” The incident happened near the contested Scarborough Shoal.

Taiwan: MND detects China’s naval and military vessels near the strait
On 18 December, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence (MND) detected 15 Chinese military aircraft, nine naval vessels and four ships surrounding Taiwan. On X, the MND stated that out of the 15 People's Liberation Army aircraft, two crossed the Taiwan Strait line, part of Taiwan’s southwestern and eastern ADIZ zone or air defence identification zone. On 17 December, ten Chinese aircraft and seven naval vessels were near Taiwan. On the same day, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied the existence of Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence (MND) as US-made M1A2T Abrams tanks came to Taiwan. The statement came in response to MND announcing that the first 38 batches of US tanks part of the 108 unit reached Hukou township of Taiwan.

Japan: US Marine Corps relocation from Okinawa Prefecture to Guam
On 14 December, Japan’s Ministry of Defence announced the relocation of the US Marine Corps from Okinawa Prefecture to Guam. This relocation aims to reduce the burden of US troops in Okinawa while maintaining deterrence in the region. According to the April 2012 agreement between Japan and the US, 4,000 from the III Marine Expeditionary Brigade at Uruma and the 4th Marine Regiment in Nago will relocate to Guam. The number of US Marines in the Japanese prefecture would decrease to around 10,000 with the 9,000 Marine Corps to relocate to Hawaii.

South Korea: Constitutional Court declares date for President Yook Suk Yeol’s first preparatory hearing
On 16 December, the Constitutional Court stated 27 December as the first preparatory hearing of President Yoon Suk Yeol’s parliamentary impeachment. The preparatory hearing is scheduled at 2 pm on 27 December, and the subsequent hearing will be open to the public. The constitutional court has a maximum of 180 days to decide whether to uphold the impeachment or reinstate Yoon. The identity of the lead justice, selected through an electronic draw, has been kept confidential, stating it as a “decision of the justices.” Despite the vacancy of the three-justice positions, the court has upheld that it is possible to proceed with the case with a six-member bench, whose unanimous decision is required for the impeachment to be upheld. On 14 December, South Korea’s parliament voted to impeach Yoon after his ruling party turned on him following his refusal to resign over a short-lived martial law attempt. If the court decides to impeach Yoon, he will officially become the second president to be ousted in Korean history after former President Park Geun-hye.

South Korea: To conduct military drills against North Korean drones
On 18 December, South Korea warned that military drills would be launched to improve responses against North Korean drone infiltrations. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff noted that this military exercise will be carried out on 19 December and will include simulations of drone attacks by North Korea through the East Sea, Yellow Sea and the rear areas. The Army Ground Operations Command and the Operations Commands of the Navy and the Air Force will participate in this exercise to execute a coordinated response to the North Korean drones.

The Philippines: Signs an RAA with Japan
On 16 December, the Philippines ratified a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) with Japan. It would allow the countries to deploy troops and military equipment in each other’s countries. It provides the entry of equipment and troops for training and disaster response. It was ratified by all 19 senators in Manila with the presence of Japanese Ambassador Kazuya Endo. It was signed by the defence and finance ministers of both countries in early July.

The Philippines: Kanlaon volcano erupts
On 9 December, The Straits Times reported on the eruption of an active volcano in the central Philippines. Located in the central island of Negros, Kanlaon is one of the 24 active volcanoes in the region with an altitude of 2400 metres above sea level. The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology stated: “An explosive eruption occurred at the summit vent of Kanlaon Volcano at 1503 hours.” It called for the evacuation of people around a six-kilometre radius from the summit of the volcano.

The Philippines: Military drills with the US and Japan
On 6 December, The Straits Times reported on the naval exercise by the Philippines with the US and Japan in its exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea. This comes two days after a row between the Philippines and China over a disputed Scarborough Shoal. The drills included a US Navy P-8A Poseidon aircraft, Philippine Navy frigate BRP Andres Bonifacio, a C-90 patrol plane and Japan’s Murasame-class destroyer JS Samidare. The Armed Forces of the Philippines and the US Indo-Pacific Command stated: “The exercises were conducted in a manner that is consistent with international law, and with due regard for the safety of navigation and the rights and interests of other states.”

Myanmar: KNU recaptures headquarters after 30 years
On 17 December, the Karen National Union (KNU), an ethnic rebel group in Myanmar, recaptured its headquarters from the Myanmar military. According to the KNU leader Saw Thamain, the fighters captured Manerplaw, a village on the Thai border, after fighting for days. The takeover by the KNU comes after 30 years of military control over the base. Since 2021, KNU has continuously fought with the military and provided shelter and training to other rebel groups.

Myanmar: The Arakan Army captures southern township in Rakhine State
On 16 December, the Arakan Army (AA) captured the Taungup township in southern Rakhine State. This came after the AA seized the northern Rakhine State’s Maungdaw Township bordering Bangladesh. The AA currently controls Myanmar’s 270-kilometre border with Bangladesh. The AA spokesperson Khaing Thukha said that they detained hundreds of soldiers from Myanmar’s military during their offensive and were aiming to capture Gwa town in the deep south of Rakhine state.

Myanmar: Arakan Army seizes military positions across Ann Town
On 7 December, The Irrawaddy reported on the advancements of the Arakan Army (AA) against Myanmar’s military. The AA claims to have captured around 30 military positions in Ann Town including battalion headquarters and outposts. They have taken control of the Ann Airport and the road to Magwe Region, blocking all reinforcements. They informed to had neutralised over 100 military reinforcements in Gwa Town.

South Asia
Pakistan: Unknown militants attack polio team in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
On 16 December, unknown militants killed a police constable in Banda Daud Shah, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In the crossfire, a polio vaccinator was injured. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and President Asif Ali Zardari condemned the incident. Sharif stated: “The government will utilize all possible resources to ensure the safety of the polio workers till complete eradication of the disease in the country.”

Pakistan: Nacta says 20 Chinese killed in terror attacks since 2021
On 10 December, the National Counter Terrorism Authority (Nacta) during a National Assembly Standing Committee on Planning, Development and Special Initiatives meeting claimed that 20 Chinese nationals were killed and 34 others sustained injuries in separate terror attacks since 2021. These incidents happened in Sindh, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Balochistan. The issue has become a point of contention between China and Pakistan, leading to the exploration of joint security management options with a security cell being established in China’s embassy in Pakistan.

Pakistan: Security forces kill 15 terrorists in Balochistan
On 10 December, Dawn reported that as per Intern-Services Public Relations (ISPR), 15 terrorists were killed in Zhob, Balochistan in an intelligence-based operation. One soldier was killed during the operation. ISPR confirmed that a massive number of “weapons, ammunition and explosives” were confiscated. Pakistan has witnessed a surge in the number of terror attacks in recent months, especially in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan. In November, security officials killed more than 15 terrorists in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Pakistan: Prime Minister forms committee to address terrorism and crime
On 7 December, The News International reported that the Prime Minister has called for the constitution of a 13-member committee, tasked to address the terrorism and crime in the country. This development comes after the PTI staged its protests in Islamabad, resulting in clashes between the PTI supporters and the security forces. The Minister of Defence Khawaja Muhammad Asif has been appointed as the head of the committee. It will be tasked to examine the capacities of the institutions in charge of terrorism and crime. The committee will consist of ministers from the federation and representatives from the security forces.

Pakistan: Five terrorists killed in Lakki Marwat, reports ISPR
On 4 December, a press release from the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) revealed that security forces had killed five Tehreek-e-Taliban members in an intelligence-based operation in Lakki Marwat. The report claimed that due to the presence of Khwarij in the region, a “sanitation operation” was carried out. A post by the PTV News on X quoted Prime Minister Sharif: “The nefarious intentions of the enemies of humanity will continue to be crushed in the same way.” President Zardari highlighted “national determination to continue operations until the complete end of terrorism.”

India: Villages in Arunachal Pradesh demonstrate against 11,000 MW hydropower project
On 15 December, people from the Riew, Geku and Boleng villages held demonstrations against the proposed 11,000-megawatt Upper Siang hydropower project in Arunachal Pradesh. The protests gained traction after the state government deployed the Central Armed Police Forces to start a survey to determine the project’s feasibility. The project is not well received by the residents over displacement and environmental threats. Previously, the village representatives sent a letter to the Union Ministry of Home refuting claims of the project being unanimously welcomed by the residents.

Nepal: Female politicians’ victim of online violence, ONI report
On 16 December, the Kathmandu Post quoted a report by the Open Nepal Initiative (ONI) which highlights the growing frequency of online violence, targeting female politicians in the country. A press release from the initiative claims that monitoring social media accounts revealed alarming patterns of online abuse and highlighted the urgent need for action to create safer digital spaces. The study also found how social media platforms like X served as a channel for perpetuating online abuse. The targeted politicians include two lawmakers of the Rashtriya Swatantra Party and Minister for Foreign Affairs Arzu Rana Deuba.

Nepal: Calls for climate justice at ICJ hearing
On 9 December, Nepal’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Arzu Rana Deuba appealed to the International Court of Justice on the impacts of climate change in Nepal. Deuba commented that Nepal “bears the impacts in a disproportionate manner.” The melting of mountains and glaciers, heavy monsoons, storms and landslides pose a risk to the civilians and the country’s economy. Speaking at the Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change hearing, she told the court that irrespective of maintaining climate balance, preserving biodiversity and supporting the ecosystem, Nepal continues to be vulnerable due to its low development. He highlighted how vulnerable countries are unable to meet international obligations. Secretary of the Ministry of Law, Justice and Parliamentary Affairs, Udaya Raj Sapkota underscored the developed countries' obligation under the Paris Agreement to support developing countries by providing them resources to help them adapt and mitigate climate challenges. He said: “What countries like Nepal are calling for is not mere handouts or charity, but compensatory climate justice.”

The Middle East and Africa
Israel: OIC condemns Israel for “genocide” in Nuseirat
On 13 December, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) condemned Israel’s airstrikes on central Gaza’s Nuseirat, calling the attack a part of Jerusalem’s “systematic state terrorism and ongoing genocide against the Palestinian people.” The attack occurred on 12 December, when, according to Al Jazeera, Israel conducted an airstrike on central Gaza’s Nuseirat refugee camp, killing 36 people. The Hamas-run Government Media Office termed it a “barbaric and heinous massacre,” alleging that Israel knowingly targeted a “residential block with many apartment buildings housing dozens of civilians.”

Israel: Military to occupy Syria’s side of Mount Hermon in winter months
On 13 December, Israel’s Minister of Defence, Israel Katz, stated that the country's military would occupy the Syrian side of Mount Hermon, located at the Syria-Lebanon border, during the coming winter months. Katz stated: “Due to what is happening in Syria, there is a huge security importance to our holding of the Hermon peak, and everything must be done to ensure the IDF’s preparations in the area, to allow the troops to stay there in the difficult weather conditions.”

Israel: Hamas calls for “mobilization” against PA’s ongoing operations in Jenin
On 17 December, Hamas urged “all movements, factions, tribal gatherings, and human rights organizations to mobilize massively” against the ongoing military operations being carried out by the Palestinian Authority’s (PA) security forces in the West Bank’s Jenin city. According to the Oslo II Accords, the PA exercises limited security powers over the enclave. Hamas stressed that such operations “serves only the occupation army and its futile dreams of ending the resistance in the West Bank.” Previously, on 14 December, PA forces killed a Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) member fighting as part of the West Bank-based Jenin Brigade umbrella group.

Israel: IDF captures Golan Heights buffer zone
On 8 December, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that under his orders, Israel’s military “seized the buffer zone and the commanding positions” close to the Israel-controlled Golan Heights. Netanyahu stated that given the fall of the Assad government, Israel’s 1974 agreement with Syria for a UN-monitored disengagement, which had established the buffer, had collapsed. Additionally, Israel’s troops took control of the Syrian side of Mount Hermon, making it an annexation of Syria’s territory. Netanyahu stated that the army captured the locations so that “no hostile force embeds itself right next to the border of Israel” but added that “this is a temporary position until a suitable arrangement is found.” On 7 December, Israel Defence Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi stated that the IDF deployed troops beyond the demilitarised zone and conducted covert operations in Syrian territory.

Syria: International Chemical Weapons body convenes emergency meeting
On 12 December, the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) convened an emergency meeting on concerns about Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile following President Bashar al-Assad’s removal. Underscoring Syria’s obligations under the Chemical Weapons Convention to account for and dismantle its stockpile, especially those of toxic substances like Chlorine gas, OPCW Secretary General Fernando Arias Gonzalez stated: “Chemical weapons have been used in Syria on multiple occasions, and victims deserve justice.” Although the Assad government consistently denied accusations of using chemical weapons, the OPCW noted that the Syrian Armed Forces used chlorine gas during the country’s Syrian civil war.

Sudan: Series of RSF attacks in Darfur, Omdurman and Khartoum
On 14 December, Al Jazeera reported that at least nine people were killed and 20 others were injured in a drone strike which hit a hospital in the el-Fasher city in the Darfur region. The Federal Ministry of Health blamed the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) for the attack. Separately, on 9 December, more than 100 people were killed in an RSF air strike in Kabkabiya town in North Darfur. On 10 December, the RSF shelled the Zamzam displacement camp in North Darfur, killing five people. On the same day, the RSF attacked the SAF-controlled regions in the city of Omdurman, killing 65 people.

Somalia-Ethiopia: Turkey mediates compromise on Ethiopia’s Somaliland deal dispute
On 12 December, Al Jazeera reported that Somalia and Ethiopia have resolved the dispute over Ethiopia’s access to sea through Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, through Turkey’s mediation. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan thanked Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for their “historic reconciliation.” He stated: “The deal would be “the first step towards a new beginning based on peace and cooperation between Somalia and Ethiopia. I believe with the meeting we had today, especially with Ethiopia’s demands to access the sea, my brother Sheikh Mohamud will give the necessary support for accessing the sea.” Tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia escalated after the former struck a deal with Somaliland without Somalia’s involvement to lease a stretch of its coastline for an Ethiopian port and military base in exchange for diplomatic recognition.

Democratic Republic of Congo: 25 people killed after boat capsized in Fimi river
On 18 December, Al Jazeera reported that at least 25 people were killed in the central Democratic Republic of Congo after a boat capsized in the Fimi River. The boat was overcrowded with 100 passengers. Inongo’s river commissioner David Kalemba stated: “There was overloading at roof level and, as far as the lifeless human bodies are concerned, at least 25 have been recovered so far.” Boat accidents are common in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where people depend on limited water transport rather than road transport which is threatened by several rebel groups.

Democratic Republic of Congo: Severe malaria kills 143, reports Ministry of Public Health
On 17 December, the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Ministry of Public Health announced that the unknown disease which killed hundreds in the country was severe malaria. The disease has been spreading in the southwestern Kwango province and killed 143 people in November. The ministry stated: “The mystery has finally been solved. It’s a case of severe malaria in the form of a respiratory illness.” Since October, 592 cases were recorded with a 6.2 per cent fatality rate.

Rwanda-DRC: Peace talks called off by mediator Angola; reasons unknown
On 15 December, Al Jazeera reported that the peace talks between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo, mediated by Angola were called off. Angola’s presidency’s media officer Mario Jorge stated: “Contrary to what we expected, the summit will no longer be held today.” However, no reasons were provided for the cancellation of the peace talks. The DRC government claimed that the talks were called off after the Rwandan delegation refused to take part. The conflict has been ongoing since 2021 over Rwanda and DRC accusing each other of supporting rebel groups in the eastern DRC.

Nigeria: Several women and children kidnapped in Zamfara state
On 10 December, Al Jazeera reported that armed men abducted more than 50 women and children in the village of Kafin Dawa in Zamfara state, northwestern Nigeria. Ransom kidnappings by armed men, locally known as Bandits, are common in the region, attributed to high levels of poverty, unemployment and the proliferation of illegal arms. In March, in a similar incident, 130 students were abducted from Kuriga town for ransom.

Europe and The Americas
Russia: Oil products spilled in the Black Sea in a storm
On 15 December, two Russian tankers carrying tons of oil products spilt in a sea storm. The incident took place in Kerch Strait. Both tankers have a loading capacity of about 4,200 tonnes of oil products. The Kerch Strait is a key route for exports of Russian grain and is also used for the export of crude oil, fuel oil and liquefied natural gas. More than 50 people and equipment, including Mi-8 helicopters and rescue tugboats, had been deployed to the area.

Russia: North Korean soldiers deployed in Kursk suffered casualties, says Financial Times
On 15 December, the Financial Times reported on the conditions of North Korean soldiers deployed in the Kursk region of Russia. According to the Pentagon, they suffered heavy casualties while fighting alongside the Russian troops. US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said that they had been either killed or wounded. Defense Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU) directorate found out that the North Korean troops fighting with the Russian marine and airborne forces attacked the villages of Plekhovo, Vorobzha and Martynovka in Kursk. In retaliation, Ukrainian forces used suicide drones and heavy artillery against them. According to the estimates of the DIU, around 30 North Korean soldiers were either killed or wounded.

Russia: Destroys Ukrainian drones provided by the West
On 15 December, the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation reported that the Russian force had intercepted four Patriot anti-aircraft missile launchers provided by the West to Ukraine. Its stated: “Russian Air Force jets, along with drones and artillery groups, destroyed a combat control vehicle, an AN/MPQ-65 radar station and four launchers of the Patriot anti-aircraft missile system made in the US.” The troops claimed to have captured two villages in the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR)- Vesely Gai and Pushkino, located south of Kurakhovo and Pokrovsk. Those are a few of the locations under Ukraine’s control. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has referred to these areas as “the most difficult” for Ukrainian forces as Russian troops have rapidly advanced over months.

Russia: Plans to deploy Oreshnik missiles in Belarus
On 7 December, RT reported on the statements made by Belarus Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces Sergey Lagodyuk on deploying Russian Oreshnik hypersonic missiles. According to him, Russia’s decision to deploy the missiles in Belarus came as a response to the US’s plans to install medium-range missiles in Germany. Recently, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and Belarus’s President Alexander Lukashenko signed a security treaty that proposed using all their forces and means. Following the meeting, Putin decided to install the Oreshnik missiles in Belarus by the second half of 2025 after determining how soon they would enter regular service with Russia’s strategic forces. This was in response to the decision by NATO in July to deploy the multipurpose Standard Missile-6 (SM-6), the Tomahawk land-attack cruise missile, and a hypersonic missile.

Ukraine: Trump proposes immediate ceasefire and reduction of military aid
On 8 December, in an interview with NBC, Donald Trump said that he is considering reducing military aid to Ukraine and proposing an immediate ceasefire. He claims to have a warm relationship with the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin. In this regard, he said that he is reconsidering US membership in NATO while its members have increased their defence budgets partly due to pressure during Trump’s first term. Trump also expects China to play a role in brokering peace between Russia and Ukraine.

Georgia: Protests escalate as Georgian Dream names their president
On 15 December, the ruling party Georgian Dream announced plans to appoint their new President Mikheil Kavelashvili, a far-right politician and former footballer. On 14 December, an electoral college controlled by Georgian Dream was expected to elect Kavelashvili as president in an indirect vote in parliament boycotted by the opposition. On the other hand, Zurabishvili refused to step down from his office and demanded new parliamentary elections, paving the way for a constitutional showdown. With Zurabishvili refusing to leave office, opposition lawmakers boycotting parliament, and protests showing no signs of abating, constitutional law experts say that the vote will be illegitimate and Kavelashvili will see his presidency undermined from the day of appointment.

Georgia: Anti-establishment protests continue
On 8 December, protesters gathered in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, with EU flags. The protesters have two main demands i.e., a fresh election after the contested 26 October parliamentary vote and a return to the European path enshrined in their country's constitution. The ruling party claims that the elections were free and fair. However, many experts have pointed out certain irregularities in the elections. This questions the legitimacy of the elections. Around 400 protesters were detained and 300 injured after police fired tear gas and pellet guns. Furthermore, the ruling party, Georgia Dream, suspended the EU membership talks until 2028. It has also blamed the opposition for staging a protest similar to the Maidan revolution in 2014, which occurred in Ukraine to topple the then pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych.

Serbia: Protests against lithium mining
On 14 December, France24 reported on the anxiety among rural dwellers in Serbia due to lithium mining contracts that the government is signing. Many residents fear that lithium mines will replace their village in the coming years, leaving them homeless. Local protesters have complained that the process of raising their voices against the government has made them less productive towards their work and consumed their time. Jadder region in western Serbia has the largest lithium deposit and is of a higher quality. Demolition of some houses has already begun. Meanwhile, the profit earned from lithium mining would favour the offshore company more than the residents.

France: Macron to visit Mayotte after being hit by a devastating cyclone
On 16 December, thousands of lives were affected by the cyclone Chido in Mayotte, a French island in the Indian Ocean. Cyclone Chido devastated large parts of East Africa on 14 and 15 December with winds of more than 200 kilometres per hour. Macron announced that he will travel to Mayotte in the coming days.

The UK: Electricity outages and travel disruptions following Storm Darragh
On 9 December, BBC reported on the flood warnings in the UK. Following Storm Darragh, the cities faced electricity outages and travel disruptions. The previous week, two men died as a result of falling trees. The train operators were informed of the continued disruption in rail networks. Around 102 flood warnings continue across the regions of England and Wales. According to the Energy Networks Association in the UK, about 66,000 customers were devoid of power despite 97 per cent of them getting reconnected. The Northern Ireland Electricity Networks also reported on electricity outages.

Greece: Migrant boat collapses killing five
On 14 December, five migrants died after their boat collapsed near Crete, a Greek island. 40 are missing while 39 were rescued. The Ministry of Migration reported that there has been an increase of 25 per cent in migration to Greece and a 30 per cent increase to Rhodes and the southeast Aegean. In November, eight migrants, six of them minors, died north of the island of Samos, on a route frequently used by people smugglers.

Iceland: Women in Nordic countries are victims of sexual violence, JAMA study
On 8 December, a study published in JAMA Network Open revealed that almost 40 per cent of women in Iceland have suffered sexual. Iceland has been topping the World Economic Forum’s global gender equality rankings for 15 years. The study surveyed 28,200 women and found that many of them had living traumas like stillbirth, having a child taken away, divorce, or discrimination and humiliation. Two in three women said they had either witnessed or were a direct victim of sexual violence. These analyses bring Iceland’s image as a gender-neutral country into question. Finland, Denmark, and Sweden report higher lifetime levels of sexual or physical assault compared to the rest of Europe.

About the authors
Anu Maria Joseph is a Project Associate at NIAS. Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh, Samruddhi Pathak and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Nova Karen, Vaishak Sreeekumar, C Shraddha, and Kumari Krishna are Research Interns at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad.

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