State of Peace and Conflict in 2024
Three Geographies and Five Big Conflicts
D Suba Chandran
The conflicts in 2024 were centred primarily on the following three regions – Ukraine, the Middle East and North Africa. In Ukraine, the conflict was primarily between the two actors – Kyiv and Moscow, and during 2024, it remained limited between these two, though Russia complained of expanding the conflict, following the US/European support to Ukraine.
The two conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, became the centre of global attraction. Regional and global interests played a role in the rest of the World, which was too focused on what was happening in these two regions.
1. The Conflict in Ukraine
In Ukraine, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued into the third year, which witnessed ups and downs for both the main players. Kyiv attempted to counterattack and remove the Russian presence from Ukraine’s soil with limited success. Kyiv even tried to target the Russian territory as a strategy to inflict pain on Moscow.
Kyiv also tried to garner regional support from the rest of Europe and outside, primarily the US. While Europe and US were sympathetic to Kyiv, and even supported the latter with military equipment, the political and military support to Ukraine was not sufficient enough for the latter to make any battlefield success, thereby pressurizing Russia to agree to even consider a political process.
For Moscow, the sanctions imposed by the US and its allies in Europe have hurt its economy, they have not brought Russia down. The idea of using sanctions to force Russia to negotiate with Ukraine on a settlement has not made any headway during 2024. So have been the idea of using sanctions to create a political opposition within Russia against President Putin. As a result, Putin should feel stronger in December 2024, than he was in January. Especially after Trump’s victory in the US, Putin should be looking forward to a favourable 2025.
2. The Israel-Hamas Conflict
In Israel, in 2024, Benjamin Netanyahu continued his onslaught against the Palestinian population in Gaza, while Hamas continued to withstand the military and political pressure to release the hostages it took in October 2023. Israel pounded the civilian areas throughout the year, and accused Hamas of using the latter as a shield.
Unlike in Ukraine, multiple efforts were made throughout the year, to bring Israel and Hamas to a negotiation table. From the US to Qatar, regional and global actors played a role in getting the two primary actors; but the multiple negotiations failed to reach a ceasefire, as both actors complained the other of violating the ground rules, even before an understanding could be reached.
3. Israel-Hezbollah and Israel-Iran Conflicts
In the Middle East, the conflict that started in 2023 between Israel and Hamas, did not confine to Gaza alone. There were three expansions – on the south, east and north. In the south, the Houthis from Yemen attempted to expand the conflict by targeting Israel, and also in the Red Sea region. Israel and the rest of its allies targeted the Houthis; in 2024, the Houthis’ involvement in the Middle East conflict appears contained. In the east, in 2024, there was a dangerous escalation between Iran and Israel. Both actors came to a direct confrontation; missiles and drones were fired across the international borders during the year. In the north, the Hezbollah, during 2024 continued to engage Israel in military confrontation, and appears to have lost more than any gains. Israel targeted Hezbollah deep inside Lebanon and neutralized the latter’s top leadership. By the end of 2024, Hezbollah stands weakened than it was in the beginning. So are Hamas and the Houthis. Israel-Iran confrontation during 2024 remained limited, and appears stalemated. Both can inflict more pain on the other side, but have chosen to tread a cautious path in pursuing a military confrontation in 2024.
4. The HTS in Syria and the Fall of Assad Regime
A collateral of the above conflict between Israel, Iran and Hezbollah and Russia-Ukraine conflict was the stunning rise of HTS in Syria, leading to the fall of the Assad regime in a period of two weeks. Without militant and military support of Hezbollah and Iran, and Russia’s crucial air support, the Assad regime fell like a pack of cards. Assad had to flee; in Syria, 2024 belongs to the HTS.
If the other three non-state “Hs” – Houthi, Hezbollah and Hamas in 2024 failed in 2024, HTS was a success story. In 2025, it should be considering itself as a state actor.
5. The Civil War in Sudan
While the world focused more on the Middle East and Ukraine, there were multiple conflicts in Africa, that went unnoticed. The civil war in Sudan continued in 2024 into the second year; the two actors - the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continued to target the other, killing the civilians in the crossfire. Thousands have been killed and millions have been displaced within and outside Sudan. The conflict is spread across the country and is unlikely to subside. Famine poses a bigger challenge, so is the lack of international support and attention to what is happening in Sudan. While the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continued in 2024, there were sufficient global attention and pressure on actors. Unfortunately, the conflict in Sudan continues and is likely worsen in 2025.
Outside Sudan, Nigeria and Kenya during 2024 witnessed protests over economic and political causes. Fortunately, for the two countries, the protests did not spill over and destabilized them. On the positive side, Rwanda witnessed a sign of stability as the country commemorated the thirty years of genocide, one of the worst in recent history, where close to 800,000 Tutsis and Hutus were killed.
The Year Ahead
Will the two conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue in 2025? Trump will become the President in January 2025; he has hinted at ending them. Will he make the parties to negotiate and reach an agreement, or force one to yield to the other? The first is not an easy task, but yield rich dividends in the long run; the second may be easier and tactical, but may not bring the conflict to an end in the long run.
In 2024, a significant issue was the absence of political initiatives and institutional mechanisms to address conflict issues and bring actors to the negotiating table. Big powers and the United Nations discussed developments in the two big conflict theatres – Ukraine and Gaza, but could not make a positive intervention. Will this change in 2025?
In 2024, another important but unfortunate development was the lopsided global attention. While the conflicts and violence remained the focus, other domestic and regional fallouts – famine, migration, gender and children-related specific questions could not be adequately addressed. In geographic terms, Ukraine and Gaza received larger attention; other conflicts, for example, in Haiti, Yemen, Sudan (and the rest of Africa), and Myanmar, gained little focus. They all need global attention in 2025. It is not going to be an easy year. |
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