Conflict Weekly

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Conflict Weekly
State of Peace and Conflict in 2024

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #261, 26 December 2024, Vol.5, No.52
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

State of Peace and Conflict in 2024
Three Geographies and Five Big Conflicts 
D Suba Chandran

The conflicts in 2024 were centred primarily on the following three regions – Ukraine, the Middle East and North Africa. In Ukraine, the conflict was primarily between the two actors – Kyiv and Moscow, and during 2024, it remained limited between these two, though Russia complained of expanding the conflict, following the US/European support to Ukraine. 

The two conflicts in Ukraine and Israel, became the centre of global attraction. Regional and global interests played a role in the rest of the World, which was too focused on what was happening in these two regions. 

1. The Conflict in Ukraine
In Ukraine, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued into the third year, which witnessed ups and downs for both the main players. Kyiv attempted to counterattack and remove the Russian presence from Ukraine’s soil with limited success. Kyiv even tried to target the Russian territory as a strategy to inflict pain on Moscow. 

Kyiv also tried to garner regional support from the rest of Europe and outside, primarily the US. While Europe and US were sympathetic to Kyiv, and even supported the latter with military equipment, the political and military support to Ukraine was not sufficient enough for the latter to make any battlefield success, thereby pressurizing Russia to agree to even consider a political process.

For Moscow, the sanctions imposed by the US and its allies in Europe have hurt its economy, they have not brought Russia down. The idea of using sanctions to force Russia to negotiate with Ukraine on a settlement has not made any headway during 2024. So have been the idea of using sanctions to create a political opposition within Russia against President Putin. As a result, Putin should feel stronger in December 2024, than he was in January. Especially after Trump’s victory in the US, Putin should be looking forward to a favourable 2025.

2. The Israel-Hamas Conflict
In Israel, in 2024, Benjamin Netanyahu continued his onslaught against the Palestinian population in Gaza, while Hamas continued to withstand the military and political pressure to release the hostages it took in October 2023. Israel pounded the civilian areas throughout the year, and accused Hamas of using the latter as a shield. 

Unlike in Ukraine, multiple efforts were made throughout the year, to bring Israel and Hamas to a negotiation table. From the US to Qatar, regional and global actors played a role in getting the two primary actors; but the multiple negotiations failed to reach a ceasefire, as both actors complained the other of violating the ground rules, even before an understanding could be reached.

3. Israel-Hezbollah and Israel-Iran Conflicts
In the Middle East, the conflict that started in 2023 between Israel and Hamas, did not confine to Gaza alone. There were three expansions – on the south, east and north. In the south, the Houthis from Yemen attempted to expand the conflict by targeting Israel, and also in the Red Sea region. Israel and the rest of its allies targeted the Houthis; in 2024, the Houthis’ involvement in the Middle East conflict appears contained. In the east, in 2024, there was a dangerous escalation between Iran and Israel. Both actors came to a direct confrontation; missiles and drones were fired across the international borders during the year. In the north, the Hezbollah, during 2024 continued to engage Israel in military confrontation, and appears to have lost more than any gains. Israel targeted Hezbollah deep inside Lebanon and neutralized the latter’s top leadership. By the end of 2024, Hezbollah stands weakened than it was in the beginning. So are Hamas and the Houthis. Israel-Iran confrontation during 2024 remained limited, and appears stalemated. Both can inflict more pain on the other side, but have chosen to tread a cautious path in pursuing a military confrontation in 2024.

4. The HTS in Syria and the Fall of Assad Regime
A collateral of the above conflict between Israel, Iran and Hezbollah and Russia-Ukraine conflict was the stunning rise of HTS in Syria, leading to the fall of the Assad regime in a period of two weeks. Without militant and military support of Hezbollah and Iran, and Russia’s crucial air support, the Assad regime fell like a pack of cards. Assad had to flee; in Syria, 2024 belongs to the HTS. 

If the other three non-state “Hs” – Houthi, Hezbollah and Hamas in 2024 failed in 2024, HTS was a success story. In 2025, it should be considering itself as a state actor.

5. The Civil War in Sudan
While the world focused more on the Middle East and Ukraine, there were multiple conflicts in Africa, that went unnoticed. The civil war in Sudan continued in 2024 into the second year; the two actors - the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continued to target the other, killing the civilians in the crossfire. Thousands have been killed and millions have been displaced within and outside Sudan. The conflict is spread across the country and is unlikely to subside. Famine poses a bigger challenge, so is the lack of international support and attention to what is happening in Sudan. While the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continued in 2024, there were sufficient global attention and pressure on actors. Unfortunately, the conflict in Sudan continues and is likely worsen in 2025.

Outside Sudan, Nigeria and Kenya during 2024 witnessed protests over economic and political causes. Fortunately, for the two countries, the protests did not spill over and destabilized them. On the positive side, Rwanda witnessed a sign of stability as the country commemorated the thirty years of genocide, one of the worst in recent history, where close to 800,000 Tutsis and Hutus were killed.

The Year Ahead
Will the two conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East continue in 2025? Trump will become the President in January 2025; he has hinted at ending them. Will he make the parties to negotiate and reach an agreement, or force one to yield to the other? The first is not an easy task, but yield rich dividends in the long run; the second may be easier and tactical, but may not bring the conflict to an end in the long run.

In 2024, a significant issue was the absence of political initiatives and institutional mechanisms to address conflict issues and bring actors to the negotiating table. Big powers and the United Nations discussed developments in the two big conflict theatres – Ukraine and Gaza, but could not make a positive intervention. Will this change in 2025?

In 2024, another important but unfortunate development was the lopsided global attention. While the conflicts and violence remained the focus, other domestic and regional fallouts – famine, migration, gender and children-related specific questions could not be adequately addressed.  In geographic terms, Ukraine and Gaza received larger attention; other conflicts, for example, in Haiti, Yemen, Sudan (and the rest of Africa), and Myanmar, gained little focus. They all need global attention in 2025. It is not going to be an easy year.

State of Peace and Conflict in 2024
Annual Roundup: From NIAS Conflict Weekly Archives


China, East Asia, Southeast Asia and the Pacific
India-China Border Disengagement 
Femy Francis, 7 November 2024

China: A Hong Kong trial finds 14 people guilty of subversion
Akhil Ajith, 7 June 2024

Australia: Protests against gender violence
Akhil Ajith, 10 May 2024

South Asia 
Pakistan: PTI’s failed protest
Nuha Aamina, 5 December 2024

Pakistan: Continuing Disappearances in Balochistan
Vaneeta, 5 December 2024

India: Militant attack on infrastructure project in Jammu and Kashmir
Akriti Sharma, 24 October 2024

Bangladesh: Sheikh Hasina flees, Mohammad Yunus returns
Ayan Datta, 8 August 2024

Bangladesh: Three weeks of protests
Vetriselvi Baskaran, 2 August 2024

Afghanistan: The Doha Talks with the Taliban
Nuha Aamina, 12 July 2024

Central Asia
Armenia: Protests against PM Pashniyan on ceding villages to Azerbaijan
Ayan Datta, 31 May 2024

The Middle East
Syria: HTS Consolidation and External Powers in Syria
Ayan Datta, 19 December 2024

Trump and the Conflict in the Middle East
Ayan Datta, 14 November 2024

Continuing Israel-Iran-Hezbollah-Hamas Conflict
Samruddhi Pathak, 31 October 2024

The Israel-Hezbollah-Hamas War in the Middle East
Samruddhi Pathak, 24 October 2024

Israel’s Lebanon invasion and Iran’s missile barrage
Ayan Datta, 10 October 2024

Israel’s new phase of war against Hezbollah
Ayan Datta, 26 October 2024

Gaza: Mounting protests inside Israel and Netanyahu’s resistance
Ayan Datta, 5 September 2024

Blinken’s Ninth visit to Israel: US and the War in Gaza
Ayan Datta, 22 August 2024

The Middle East: Rising Israel and Hezbollah tensions
Ayan Datta, 2 August 2024

The Middle East: Houthis and Hezbollah attacks against Israel; Netanyahu visits the US
Ayan Datta, 26 July 2024

Israel: The conflict with Hezbollah intensifies
Ayan Datta, 28 June 2024

Israel: Challenges to Netanyahu’s War
Ayan Datta, 21 June 2024

The War in Gaza: Biden's New Three-Phase Proposal for a Ceasefire, Release of Hostages and Reconstruction
Ayan Datta, 7 June 2024

The War in Gaza: Despite growing international pressure, Israel continues its operations in Rafah
Shamini Velayutham, 31 May 2024

Gaza: Impending operation in Rafah, Regrouping of Hamas and the Genocide Case in ICJ
Shamini Velayutham, 17 May 2024

Biden's Speech at the Holocaust Memorial: Four Takeaways
Sayeka Ghosh and Neha Tresa George, 10 May 2024

The Ceasefire Conundrum in the Middle East: Hamas accepts a deal, Israel rejects
Shamini Velayutham, 10 May 2024

Middle East: The Elusive Negotiations and the Pressure on Hamas
Shamini Velayutham, 3 May 2024

The Middle East: Steady Escalation
Shamini Velayutham, 18 April 2024

The War in Gaza: Between Talks in Cairo and an Impending Military Offensive in Rafah
Shamini Velayutham, 11 April 2024

Gaza: Finally, a UN Security Council Resolution
Rosemary Kurian, 28 March 2024

The War in Gaza: The search for a ceasefire and military operations in Rafah
Nuha Aamina, 22 March 2024

The War in Gaza: The Elusive Search for a Ceasefire
Shamini Velayutham, 8 March 2024

War expands to Rafah, the border town
Nuha Aamina, 15 February 2024

UNRWA relief fund shutdown exacerbates crises
Nuha Aamina, 1 February 2024

The Red Sea Crisis: Attacks and Counter Attacks
Nuha Aamina, 18 January 2024

Middle East: Blinken's Fourth Visit
Shamini Velayutham, 11 January 2024

Africa
Sudan: A prolonged war and failed mediations
Anu Maria Joseph, 21 November 2024

Sudan: SAF’s bid to recapture Khartoum
Anu Maria Joseph, 10 October 2024

Sudan: The war, famine and humanitarian crisis
Anu Maria Joseph, 12 September 2024

Burkina Faso: JNIM expands toward Ouagadougou
Anu Maria Joseph, 29 August 2024

Mpox Outbreak: Africa and Beyond
Anu Maria Joseph, 22 August 2024

Nigeria: Protests over cost-of-living crisis
Vetriselvi Baskaran, 8 August 2024

Protests in Kenya: Into the fifth week
Anu Maria Joseph, 26 July 2024

Suicide Bombings in Nigeria
Ayan Datta, 12 July 2024

Kenya: Crisis continues, as the protests expand despite President's interventions
Anu Maria Joseph, 12 July 2024

Kenya: Protests force the government to withdraw the financial bill
Anu Maria Joseph, 28 June 2024

South Africa Elections 2024: Early results imply a coalition
Anu Maria Joseph, 31 May 2024

Sudan: One Year of Civil War
Anu Maria Joseph, 18 April 2024

30 years after the Rwandan Genocide
Anu Maria Joseph, 4 April 2024

The Gambia: The genital cutting and the return of the FGM debate
Anu Maria Joseph, 22 March 2024

Continuing Kidnappings in Nigeria
Narmatha S and Vetriselvi Baskaran, 15 March 2024

Ghana: The anti-LGBTQ bill threatens a liberal democracy in West Africa
Anu Maria Joseph, 1 March 2024

Senegal: Protests amidst the postponement of elections
Anu Maria Joseph, 8 February 2024

Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso's termination from ECOWAS and regional challenges
Anu Maria Joseph, 1 February 2024

Europe
The US and Ukraine: Biden approves launching of missiles further into Russia
Padmashree Anandhan, 21 November 2024

Spain: Devastating Floods and its Aftermath
Binod Khanal, 7 November 2024

Georgian Parliamentary Election 2024: Accusations of Rigging
Manoranjan Kumar, 31 October 2024

Russia’s counteroffensive in Kursk
Padmashree Anandhan, 19 September 2024

Ukraine: Russia’s Drone attacks
Pamashree Anandhan, 5 September 2024

Telegram founder’s arrest and the debate on free speech
Advik S Mohan, 29 August 2024

Riots and Protests in the UK: A Week After
Samruddi Pathak, 15 August 2024

Ukraine: Counteroffensive inside Russia’s Kursk Oblast
Padmashree Anandhan, 15 August 2024

Violence in the UK: Protests and Counter Protests on Immigrants
Samruddi Pathak, 8 August 2024

Dagestan: Terror attacks expose Russia’s vulnerabilities
Padmashree Anandhan, 28 June 2024

Ukraine Peace Summit: 78 countries sign communique
Govind Anoop, 21 June 2024

Georgia: Parliament approval of foreign influence bill triggers mass protests
Indrani Talukdar, 17 May 2024

Catalonia and the Spain Elections: Decline of pro-independence voices
Neha Tresa George, 17 May 2024

The UK: Parliament approves the Bill to deport migrants to Rwanda
Padmashree Anandhan, 25 April 2024

Russia: ISIS terror attack in Moscow
Padmashree Anandhan, 28 March 2024

Denmark: Greenlandic Inuit's call for colonial justice
Anu Maria Joseph, 8 March 2024

France: First country to enshrine abortion rights in the Constitution
Padmashree Anandhan, 8 March 2024

Poland: The Farmers' protest on Ukraine grain and EU regulations
Manoranjan Kumar, 1 March 2024

NATO 32: Leaving neutrality, Sweden to join after Hungary's approval
Padmashree Anandhan, 1 March 2024

Ukraine: The Battle for Avdiivka
Padmashree Anandhan, 22 February 2024

France: Farmer protests continue despite government measures
Padmashree Anandhan, 1 February 2024

The War in Ukraine: Drones, missiles and counterattacks
Padmashree Anandhan, 4 January 2024

Americas
Brazil and Greece: Raging wildfires 
Akriti Sharma, 29 August 2024

Canada’s 100 per cent tariff on Chinese EVs
R Sachin Arvind, 29 August 2024

Raging wildfires in North America
Akriti Sharma, 2 August 2024

Venezuela: Violence follows after President Maduro gets re-elected for a third time
Dhriti Mukherjee, 2 August 2024

The US: Extreme weather events in California and beyond
Akriti Sharma, 21 June 2024

The US: President Biden's executive immigration order for Mexico border
Dhriti Mukherjee, 7 June 2024

The US: Contradictions in the Abortion laws in Arizona and Florida
Dhriti Mukherjee, 3 May 2024

Ecuador: Overwhelming support for a referendum on strict security measures
Dhriti Mukherjee, 25 April 2024

Latin America: Mexico suspends diplomatic ties with Ecuador 
Dhriti Mukherjee, 11 April 2024

Haiti: Continuing political instability 
Navinan GV, 22 March 2024

Haiti: State of Emergency as violence surges with gang leaders warning of civil war and genocide
Navinan GV, 8 March 2024

Haiti: Continuing Violence and Kidnappings 
Dhriti Mukherjee, 25 January 2024

Ecuador: State of emergency, following prison riots and escape of a drug lord
Dhriti Mukherjee, 11 January 2024

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