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CWA # 1563
Conflict Weekly
Trump’s Threat to the Middle East, Genocide in Sudan, Fears over China’s Dam on Yarlung Tsangpo, andTen Years after Charlie Hebdo Attacks

  IPRI Team
11 January 2025

Conflict Weekly #263, 9 January 2024, Vol.6, No.2
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI
 

Ayan Datta, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis and Padmashree Anandhan

US and the Middle East: Trump’s threat of “All Hell Would Breakout”
Ayan Datta
 
In the news
On 7 January, US President-elect Donald J Trump warned Hamas that “all hell would break out in the Middle East” if the group did not release hostages by his inauguration day on 20 January. Refusing to specify what he meant by hell breaking out, he insisted that the scenario would “not be good for Hamas.” 

During the same meeting, Trump’s designated envoy to The Middle East, Steve Witkoff, expressed optimism about the ongoing hostage-deal-ceasefire negotiations in Doha, highlighting that Trump’s stature and the red lines were guiding the talks. 

Issues at large
First, the US approach towards the War in Gaza and the recent Middle East tensions. Since 7 October 2023, the Biden administration has pursued two goals in the Middle East- bolstering Israel’s security against Iran-backed armed groups and preventing further US entanglement in the region. Following the 7 October Hamas attack, the US gave Israel its full support, aligning with Netanyahu’s goals of dismantling Hamas, installing a non-Hamas government in Gaza, and reviving normalisation efforts with Saudi Arabia. However, the Biden administration tried to restrain Israel from expanding the war across the region. Until now, Biden advised Netanyahu against launching a pre-emptive war against Hezbollah on 11 October 2023 and pressured Israel to keep its responses to Iran’s missile volleys proportionate, even threatening to withdraw assistance if Israel did not comply. Biden also opposed Israel’s plans to reoccupy Gaza after the war, as evidenced by his July 2023 ceasefire proposal, which envisioned gradual Israeli withdrawal from the enclave.

Second, Trump’s threats. His approach towards foreign policy so far has been characterised by outlandish statements — annexing Canada, purchasing Greenland, reintegrating the Panama Canal — rather than policy pronouncement, causing his detractors to speculate that “hell to pay” may simply be a pressure tactic against Hamas. Despite his promises to draw down US’ global entanglements, Trump continued Biden’s blank-cheque support for Israel. His recent assertions placed the burden of compliance squarely on Hamas while granting Israel maximum freedom of operation to “finish the job” by the time he assumes office. However, Trump, with his record of recognising Israeli settlements in the West Bank and shifting the US embassy to Jerusalem, is more indifferent to Palestinians’ territorial claims than his predecessor. Most importantly, having quashed JCPOA in his previous term in favour of a “maximum pressure” doctrine, Trump is more amenable to Netanyahu’s plans of a US-assisted escalation against Iran. 
 
In perspective
First, Trump’s recent statements against Hamas are evidence of his predictably unpredictable and rhetoric-driven foreign policy. While his threats do create pressure on Hamas, which stands severely weakened after over a year of Israeli operations, it is difficult to see how Trump could make Israel’s Gaza campaign any more effective. If true, the threat would mean an unprecedented increase in US assistance to Israel. As the US already provides unconditional military assistance to Israel, Washington does not have very many instruments at his disposal. 

Second, at the operational level, Trump could deploy additional aircraft carrier strike groups into the Mediterranean Sea, deploy its special forces on the ground alongside Israeli troops, or provide Israel with greater intelligence and targeting information on remaining Hamas leaders. 

Third, at the strategic level, since Trump has hinted at a regionwide “hell,” he could greenlight Israel’s plans to intensify its direct attacks against Iran, which would be massively escalatory and, if successful, radically alter the region’s balance of power in Israel’s favour. Such operations would include Israeli airstrikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities and decapitation operations against Iran’s civilian and military leadership, including Ayatollah Khamenei and the IRGC top brass. Trump has sensed Hamas and Iran’s weakened position and is therefore unwilling to offer concessions. Furthermore, with economic unrest and anti-regime sentiment brewing in Iran, such a move could shift power away from Ayatollah Khamenei, creating possibilities for a future US-Israeli-backed regime change in Iran. Taking advantage of Iran’s recent strategic setbacks could strengthen Israel but also cause Tehran to accelerate its nuclear programme, which is already at a point of no return.

US and the Civil War in Sudan: The Belated US Genocide Call and Sanctions 
Anu Maria Joseph
 
In the news
On 7 January, the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, in a press release, sanctioned the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) leader, Mohammad Hamdan Daglo, for human rights atrocities against the Sudanese people. The Department of State additionally sanctioned seven RSF-owned companies in the UAE. Besides, under Section 7031(c), Dagalo and his immediate family have been restricted entry to the US. Blinken stated: "Members of the RSF and allied militias have committed genocide in Sudan."

The press release accuses Dagalo of neglecting 2023, "the Jeddah Declaration of Commitment to Protect the Civilians of Sudan," and the 2024 Code of Conduct by the Advancing Lifesaving and Peace in Sudan initiative. The crimes that the RSF committed, according to the press release, were war crimes, including sexual violence, murdering men, boys and infants on an ethnic basis by aligning with ethnic militias, targeted sexual attacks on women and girls from certain ethnic groups, and preventing access to aid. 

Commenting on the US efforts to promote accountability for all warring parties, Blinken added:  "The United States does not support either side of this war, and these actions against Hemedti and the RSF do not signify support or favour for the SAF.  Both belligerents bear responsibility for the violence and suffering in Sudan and lack the legitimacy to govern a future peaceful Sudan." 

On the same day, the RSF rejected the comments stating: "America previously punished the great African freedom fighter Nelson Mandela, which was wrong. Today, it is rewarding those who started the war by punishing (RSF leader) General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, which is also wrong."

Issues at large
First, the global warnings of genocide in Sudan. This is not the first time the genocide warning in Sudan is being discussed. In September 2023, during the early stages of the war, the UN Special Advisor on the Prevention of Genocide, Alice Wairimu Nderitu, raised concerns over the risk of genocide amidst continuing violence and targeted human rights atrocities in certain regions and against identities, especially Darfur states. Later in May 2024, the UN Special Advisor on Prevention of Genocide, Margaret Besheer, issued a second warning on the growing risk of genocide in the country. Although the term "genocide" was not used, Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International and several UN agencies had previously accused the RSF of committing targeted killings, war crimes and ethnic cleansing. 

Second, a brief history of genocide in Sudan. During 2003-2008, in Darfur, more than 300,000 people were killed by the Sudanese government forces and Omar al Bashir's special forces known as Janjaweed, which later became the RSF. They targeted Fur, Zaghawa, Masalit and other non-Arab ethnic communities; the US labelled it as a genocide. Although the civil war, which began in 2023, was initially a military rivalry between the RSF and the SAF, it escalated into an ethnic conflict when the RSF and the SAF aligned with Arab and non-Arab militias. While the war was concentrated in the capital Khartoum, following the involvement of ethnic militias, the violence spread to the states of Darfur, Blue Nile and Kordofan. The RSF and its allied militias are once again carrying out human rights atrocities, and targeted killings of Fur, Zaghawa, Masalit and other non-Arab communities, concentrated in Darfur (especially El Geneina region in West Darfur), Blue Nile and Kordofan states. 

Third, regional and international efforts and their ineffectiveness. There have been multiple regional and international efforts (for example: talks led by the UK and Sierra Leon in November 2024, the US and Saudi Arabia in May 2023, and the African Union and Egypt in May 2023). However, they failed without any significant outcomes. Regional efforts have been criticized for their bias towards either of the warring parties. The international mediators fail to bring the warring parties to the bargaining table and secure their commitment and compliance. Currently, the actors are not limited to the SAF and the RSF. It includes several ethnic militias and historical ethnic issues. However, global peace efforts are limited to these two actors and short term objectives. The conflict has become more complex for any global actors to mediate. The Middle East and Ukraine receive more global attention; Sudan is of the least geopolitical interest to the world. The mediators have shown too little interest in considering the complexities of the conflict. Rather, the failed efforts and the conflict's perpetuity are bringing disinterest among the mediators.

Fourth, the conflict actors and their non-compliance to external efforts. The warring parties are adamant about gaining a territorial upper hand and claim the country's legitimate leadership. During the latest peace talks in Geneva, which both parties refused to attend, the SAF leader said its forces would "fight for 100 years" rather than sit with RSF for talks.  Besides, the UAE and Iran are allegedly supporting the RSF and the SAF with weapon supply. The abundant flow of weapons, despite the UN arms embargo, has given the warring parties a strong incentive to disregard the peace talks efforts and continue the violence. Additionally, the international ignorance and too little effort to end the war in Sudan did not alter the warring sides' strong incentives to take control of the state.

In perspective
First the repeat of history in Sudan. The US realization of a genocide in Sudan is too late and underlines the global responses to the war have been. This global neglect has made the war in Sudan worse, increasing the extent of humanitarian disaster in Sudan, making Darfur once again the victim of genocide. It was too late when the international community acknowledged the genocide in Darfur in 2004. The history is repeating again.

Second the effectiveness of global norms and institutions. Neither the international community has given enough attention to the ongoing genocide, nor has any efforts been made to prevent or stop it. It is unclear what has been the purpose of the UN's Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crimes of Genocide when it comes to many conflicts in African countries.  

Third, better efforts in mediation. The conflicts in Sudan require a collective international and regional effort. The mediators have failed to understand the actors and root causes of the conflict beyond the RSF and the SAF. Sudan needs an inclusive peace mediation including all actors, ethnic groups, civil society groups, women and grassroots representatives. Mediators need to change the method of understanding the conflict and reaching out to its actors.

China and the Dam across Yarlung Tsangpo in Tibet: Political and Environmental Tensions across the River Basin
Femy Francis
 
In the news
On 3 January, India’s Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal expressed concern about China's plan to build a hydropower project in the lower part of the Yarlung Tsangpo. Jaiswal said: “As a lower riparian state with established user rights to the waters of the river, we have consistently expressed, through expert-level as well as diplomatic channels, our views and concerns to the Chinese side over mega projects on rivers in their territory.” The USD 137 billion dam, which will be built at the Great Bend of the Yarlung Tsangpo River, will generate 300 billion kilowatts of electricity annually. 

On 6 January, Tibet was hit by a massive earthquake of 6.8 magnitude. The quake killed 126 people, injured 188, and 3,609 homes were destroyed. India, Nepal, and Bhutan also felt reverberations of the quake. 

On the same day, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun affirmed that “the project will not have a negative impact on the ecological environment, geological conditions and the rights and interests related to water resources of downstream countries.” 

Issues at large
First, a background to Yarlung Tsangpo-Siang-Brahmaputra-Jamuna river basin. The river basin has different names in different countries from China to Bangladesh. The river originates in the Angsai glacier in the Himalayas. The basin is the lifeline to over 114 million people across China, India, and Bangladesh. The river stretches over 2880 kilometers, flowing from west to east on Tibet’s plateau. It takes a sharp U-turn at the Great Bend before entering India. As it enters Arunachal Pradesh in India, it is referred to as the Siang river and becomes Brahmaputra in Assam. It then merges with Jamuna as it enters Bangladesh and empties in the Bay of Bengal. 

Second, China’s rationale and decision to build a dam. Elsewhere in China, its second-longest river Huang He (Yellow River) faces water scarcity due to demographic pressure, and unsustainable basin use. Yellow river is also responsible for 65 per cent of hydroelectric energy generation in China. There is also an over usage of the water (at 80 per cent). Hence, China wants to bring more water into the Huang He. The Chairman of the Beijing Shuotian Consultancy & Development Co, Guo Kai, 2005 suggested diverting some water from the Brahmaputra noting that there is “plenty of water and it won't make any difference to India,” with the objective to replenish the Huang He. 

Third, geological vulnerabilities of the region. The region through which the Yarlung Tsangpo flows is part of the seismic zone, vulnerable to earthquakes. The dam's location poses engineering challenges and risk of earthquakes. Analysts believe the dam will have ecological impacts in the region. Additionally, these dams can reduce the sediment flow to the downstream waters and affect agrarian production. Not only in the Yarlung. In few other cases, there is opposition to China building dams. For example, the Kamtok dam in Tibet, where there are local protests against it. Organizations like Free Tibet demand that “Kamtok dam should be halted as it involves unacceptable risk not only in Tibet but downstream in China.”

Fourth, (lack of) agreements and objections by the lower riparian countries. Beijing has no water-sharing pacts with the lower riparian countries. In 2002, an MoU was signed to share hydrological information on the Yarlung/Brahmaputra River during the monsoon season but was halted following the Doklam standoff.  
 
In perspective
First, the need for ecological, economic, social, and environmental risk assessment. The recent earthquake in Tibet puts forward the vulnerabilities of building dams in a seismic zone. The Tibetan Plateau is built on the tectonic plate with sizable seismic activities. The construction of the dam will have ecological impacts and the cascading destruction by earthquakes will lead to huge economic loss. Additionally, changing the natural flow of the basin will have an environmental impact posing a larger threat of climate change. A larger risk assessment and intervention is required by all stakeholders in the basin. 

Second, a need for a transboundary basin-sharing agreement. The Yarlung Tsangpo-Siang-Brahmaputra-Jamuna river basin has cascading effects on each other. Therefore, there is a need to have a transboundary agreement among the riparian states to hold shared responsibilities. This need was recognized by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) where in the 2023 Kathmandu, Nepal meeting formulated the Yarlung Zangbo-Brahmaputra Basin Network (YBBN), aiming to foster dialogue between riparian countries.

Charlie Hebdo attacks: Ten years later
Padmashree Anandhan
 
In the news
On 7 January, France commemorated ten years of the militant attack on Charlie Hebdo, a satirical magazine, which led to debates on the freedom of expression and religion. France’s President Emmanuel Macron and Paris Mayor Anne Hidalgo paid tribute and said: “We have not forgotten them.” France’s Minister of Interior Bruno Retailleau said: “During the last year, the threat was from within [France]. There may now be growing cooperation between foreign groups and the domestic threat from youngsters radicalised by social networks. We can exclude nothing.” 

On the same day, Germany’s Chancellor, Olaf Scholz said: “The attack targeted our shared values of freedom and democracy—we will never accept this.” Charlie Hebdo’s Director Laurent Sourisseau who was present during the attacks was quoted telling: “Satire has a virtue that has enabled us to get through these tragic years: optimism.” Additionally, rfi published a collection of cartoons highlighting the incident. Another French daily, Le Figaro said: “Ten years on, France is still under Islamist threat.”

Issues at large
First, the Charlie Hebdo attack in 2015 and its reverberations. Members of the Algerian Islamist group GIA (Groupe Islamique Armé), Chérif Kouachi and Coulibaly, were alleged to have attacked the Charlie Hebdo for publishing of cartoons scathing Prophet Mohammed.. The incident was the beginning of a wave of al Qaeda and Islamic State-linked extremist attacks in France and Western Europe. This triggered anti-Muslim immigrant sentiments, an outcry for freedom of speech and a re-examination of France’s security measures. 

Second, the threat of militant Islam to France and Europe. Radical Islam has been a great concern in France in the past three decades. Besides, there was a rise in Islamophobic events after the attacks. France has the largest Muslim population (5,720,000), which is 8.8 per cent of the total population in Western Europe. According to the Dutch General Intelligence and Security Service (AIVD), France faced multiple attacks between 2004 and 2018, with increased frequency since the first Jihadist attack in 2012. After the December 2018 Strasbourg attack, 10,000 were estimated to be extremists, radicalized through mosques, online or other platforms. 

Third, a divided society. Within France, the attacks had a profound effect on the values of free expression, and issues relating to religion and terrorism. A section supports the newspaper’s stance for free speech and its rights to criticise a religion. A section sees the attack as a hit on values of liberty, equality and fraternity. This led to a larger debate on being inclusive or exclusive of religion and boundaries of free expression. At the same time, a section within the Muslim comunity felt being marginalized in education, work and the newspaper cartoons were perceived as isolation of Muslims in French society. 

Fourth, the societal and state responses in France and Europe. Following the attacks, the suspects were killed and efforts were made to track the militant network and radicalisation and review France’s intelligence services in preventing similar attacks. Counter-terrorism laws were altered to address online radicalisation and strengthen the ability to investigate individuals engaged in such activities. Macron was criticised for his strategy towards Islam “in crisis” and targeting the Muslim population. Since the attack, the Jewish and Muslim communities have been raising safety concerns, across the UK, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. Security measures were increased across the Czech Republic, Denmark and Finland. In Sweden, there were new trends of militant attacks (an attack on the parliament building in March 2024) and an increase in counter-terrorism measures. Incidents of aggression toward women wearing headscarves, not allowing Muslim women on a bus and organising “Christian Patrols” were reported in the Netherlands and the UK. A section of EU policymakers argued on differentiating Islam and terrorism and another group of extremist and far-right used the attacks to promote anti-Muslim and anti-immigrant sentiments. 
 
In perspective
First, the media take a proportionate approach in publishing. Since the attacks, the media has been compelled to align with freedom of expression, rights groups, and civil norms. They have managed to publish agreeing and contrasting narratives using a proportionate approach. Their fight for existence through inclusion, avoiding conflict and efforts to republish (radical acts) reflect the social division and struggle to publish freely. 

Second, the EU and France’s precaution tactic. Since the 9/11 and Charlie Hebdo attacks, the aftermath and increased militant activities pushed the governments to strengthen their detection capabilities and counter-terrorism measures. However, at the societal level, similar to France there are different perceptions of the Muslim community and Jihadists with growing anti-immigrant sentiments. This has been used by the far-right parties in their favour to win political power.

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Samruddhi Pathak, Ayan Datta, Sayeka Ghosh, Neha Tresa George, Nuha Aamina, Nova Karun, Vaishak Sreekumar, C Shraddha, and Kumari Krishna

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: 6.8 magnitude earthquake hit Dingri County
On 7 January, Global Times reported that a 6.8 magnitude earthquake hit the Dingri County of China’s Xizang region. According to Xinhua, the earthquake killed 126 people and injured 188. China’s President Xi Jinping ordered an all-out rescue effort to save the lives and minimize the damage. Xi called for the prevention of secondary disasters and the resettlement of residents. Xi said: “It is essential to strengthen earthquake monitoring and early warning, promptly allocate emergency rescue supplies, expedite the repair of damaged infrastructure, ensure the basic needs of residents are met, and guarantee a safe and warm winter for all.” 

Taiwan: China accused of falsely branding Taiwanese products as its own
On 8 January, Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs held China responsible for spreading misinformation about the Taiwanese firm, Taiwan Rung Cherng Suspenparts, selling servomechanisms to Russia. The ministry rejected the “completely false news” and condemned the claims stating: “Actions of these malicious individuals in creating disinformation to attack Taiwan and calls on all sectors to distinguish between fact and fiction and not to be misled.” The ministry then contacted their representatives in Poland to contact Uzbekistan to clarify the information. They informed that China and Russia are falsely marking TRC-branded products as Chinese. 

North Korea: New hypersonic missile launched
On 6 January, North Korea fired a new intermediate-range ballistic missile with a hypersonic warhead. The country claims that the missile travelled 12 times the speed of sound for 1,500 km. The test coincided with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to South Korea’s capital Seoul. North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un declared that the launch demonstrated their readiness to defend national interests by any means necessary. South Korea condemned the launch as a "clear act of provocation.” While in Seoul, Blinken expressed concerns over Russia's potential sharing of advanced technology with North Korea and warned of the risk of recognising Pyongyang as a nuclear power. 

South Korea: Court re-issues arrest warrant for Yoon Suk yeol
On 7 January, the Seoul Western District Court re-issued an arrest warrant on impeached President Yoon Suk-yeol over his martial law declaration on 3 December. Investigators from the Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials will work closely with police to detain Yoon. This is after their initial attempt failed due to a standoff between the investigators and the presidential security service. Yoon, under investigation for alleged insurrection and abuse of power, has ignored three previous summonses. 

Japan: Plans to boost defence equipment exports 
On 5 January, The Japan Times reported that Japan aims to develop a strategy by 2025 to improve the competitiveness of its defence industry and increase defence equipment exports. The government intends to strengthen the industry’s foundation by working closely with the private sector. This is particularly due to the concerns raised over US President-elect Donald Trump's “America First” policy. The strategy will set medium and long-term targets and involve collaboration between government agencies, ministries and industry players. Japan's defence industry is reliant on Self-Defense Forces' demand and many manufacturers are exiting due to low profit margins. The key projects include the joint development of a next-generation fighter jet with the UK and Italy, and competing with Germany for a joint development contract for new frigates for Australia.

Myanmar: Military government implements new censorship law
On 3 January, the Myanmar government enacted a cyber security law with several censorship provisions. The military government has imposed restrictions on online content, including blocking apps and websites to restrict users from content that the army does not want them to access. China and Russia are reported to have provided the government with technology for monitoring and censorship. The new law has provisions targeting virtual private networks (VPNs). The law requires service providers to keep a record of the user’s data for up to three years and disclose it to the authorities. Those who establish a VPN or provide VPN services without obtaining permission from the ministry can be imprisoned for six months or fined USD 4000. 

South Asia
Pakistan: 19 terrorists killed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
On 8 January, The News International reported that security forces carried out an Intelligence Based Operation (IBO) in Matani, Peshawar. According to the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), eight militants were killed. A separate IBO was carried out in the Baizai region in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Security forces killed eight terrorists in the operation. Separately, in Karak, Kohat division of KP, three terrorists were killed by the security forces. During the operations, three security officers were killed.

Pakistan: Section 144 imposed in Kurram after gun attack on convoy
On 6 January, The News International reported on the enforcement of Section 144 in Kurram. This came after seven people were wounded in a gun attack in Lower Kurram. This decision was taken as a precautionary measure against speculated chaos and disturbances in the region. Elders of the region who signed the peace accord were directed to “hand over” suspected offenders. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government spokesperson Barrister Muhammad Ali Saif said: “The miscreants involved will face such a punishment that will serve as a lesson for others.” 

India: The US to lift the ban on nuclear entities 
On 6 January, US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan announced that the US government initiated the process of lifting bans on Indian nuclear entities. On his second day in New Delhi, he stated that the US is working towards removing “long-standing regulations that have prevented civil nuclear cooperation between India's leading nuclear entities and U.S. companies.” The government-run institutions, including, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC), Indira Gandhi Atomic Research Centre (IGCAR) and Indian Rare Earths Limited (IREL) among others will be removed from the US Department of Commerce’s Entity List.

India: Naxalite bomb kills eight police personnel
On 6 January, eight policemen died in a bomb blast set off by Maoist rebels in the Bijapur district, Chhattisgarh. A series of violent exchanges between the personnel and rebels have been taking place in recent months. About 287 rebels have been killed in 2024. The policemen were returning after an anti-Maoist operation on 4 January. 

Nepal: Magnitude seven earthquake in Himalayas
On 7 January, an earthquake struck the foothills of the Himalayas, killing 126 people and injuring 188 others. The US Geological Survey reported the earthquake’s magnitude at 7.1, while the China Earthquake Networks Center (CENC) measured at 6.8. The quake’s epicentre was 80 kilometres north of Tengri County, Tibet. Additionally, the temperatures in the region fell to minus six degrees Celsius. 7.8 magnitude tremors were also felt in neighbouring countries including Nepal, Bhutan and India. 

Bangladesh and India: Exchange of detained fishermen
On 5 January, India and Bangladesh exchanged fishermen detained by both sides over the past three months. Bangladesh Coast Guard received 90 Bangladeshi fishermen and 95 Indian fishermen were handed over to the Indian Coast Guard. Two fishing vessels belonging to Bangladesh and six Indian fishing vessels were also part of the exchange near the western international maritime boundary line. According to the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, the detention and exchange of the fisherman were not a reflection of the recently strained Indo-Bangladesh relationship. The detention of the fisherman occurred despite India and Bangladesh agreeing on a maritime boundary in 2014. 

The Middle East and Africa
Syria: Foreign minister makes first official visit to Saudi Arabia
On 2 January, the Minister of Foreign Affairs in Syria’s transitional government, Assaad al-Shaibani, arrived in Saudi Arabia, making his first foreign visit since assuming office. Arriving in Riyadh following an invitation from his Saudi counterpart, Shaibani described Saudi Arabia as a “sisterly kingdom” and the new regime in Damascus as “free Syria.” He was accompanied by the transitional government’s Minister of Defence, Murhaf Abu Qasra, and Head of General Intelligence Service, Anas Khattab. Shaibani sought to establish normal diplomatic and economic relations between the two countries, expressing his aspirations for a “new, bright, page in Syria-Saudi relations.” Commenting on Saudi Arabia’s intentions behind the meeting, former US diplomat Adam Clement stated the country wanted to cultivate strong relations with the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) government to fill the vacuum left by Iran’s diminished influence over Syria. The latter’s dependence on Iran for oil and fuel presented an additional opportunity for the Arab and Gulf countries, who could assist with Syria’s energy security and economic reconstruction. HTS’ de-factor leader, (Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known by his military alias, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani) welcomed this possibility, admitting that Saudi Arabia would “certainly have a large role in Syria’s future” with the new regime presenting “a big investment opportunity for all neighbouring countries.” 

Syria: Foreign minister calls for lifting of sanctions
On 2 January, Syria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Asaad al-Shaibani, gave an interview to Al Jazeera discussing his new administration. Shaibani called for an end to international sanctions on Syria, calling them “meaningless and ineffective.” The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader emphasised that rebuilding the war-torn country’s relations with foreign actors was a priority for him, citing his maiden visit to Saudi Arabia as an example. Unlike the Assad government, which antagonised the US, accusing it of fomenting regime change in Syria, Shaibani marked out Washington as a crucial partner for new Syria, admitting that “the development of this administration would likely depend on the US side.” Referencing his relations to engage with the incoming Donald Trump government, he stated that Syria was “ready to enhance this relation as long as the new US administration shows willingness.” Assuring external audiences that minorities were safe under HTS rule, which intended to treat everyone as Syrians, he tacitly criticised the US government’s excessive focus on the issue during its talks with the HTS: “An American focus on these issues, might inadvertently reinforce divisions within Syrian society and contribute to his fragmentation.”

Lebanon: Speaker discusses Israel’s ceasefire violations with the US
On 2 January, Speaker of Lebanon’s National Assembly, Nabih Berri, discussed a recent ceasefire violation by Israel with the Biden administration’s appointee for monitoring the truce agreement, US Major General Jasper Jeffers. Berri, who served as Hezbollah’s de-facto representative in the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement, complained that Israeli troops conducted an incursion into the southern Lebanese town of Beit Lif. According to Lebanese authorities, the incursion marked the 336th violation of the deal by Israeli soldiers, who are obligated by the terms of the agreement to withdraw behind southern Lebanon’s Blue Line. However, Israel claims that it reserves its right to attack Hezbollah to prevent it from replenishing the group’s ability to resume its attacks on Israel and usually frames its operations as targeted against Hezbollah. 
 
Syria: Turkey’s foreign minister vows to protect aggrieved groups
On 2 January, Turkey’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan, vowed to protect all “aggrieved groups” in Syria, including “Nusayris, Alevis, Yazidis, Christians.” Turkey, which backs the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) transitional government and controls vast tracts of northern Syria through the Syrian National Army (SNA), currently hosts over three million Syrians, including Sunnis and Turks. Highlighting Ankara’s role in hosting these refugees, Fidan represented Turkey as the “protector and guardian” of all groups facing oppression. Hinting at its connections in the HTS, the Turkish minister assured that “We are making every effort to ensure that they (minorities) do not face…. the new Syrian leadership is also highly sensitive to this issue.”

Syria: Israel bombs military positions in southern Aleppo
On 2 January, Israel bombed positions belonging to the remnants of former President Bashar al-Assad’s military, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA), in southern Aleppo. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, the airstrikes targeted defence and research facilities belonging to Assad’s forces. Although casualty figures are not yet available, local civilians reported hearing five to seven “massive explosions” which “turned night into day.” The attacks were part of Israel’s continuing operations against the remnants of Assad’s military, which are aimed at the latter’s weapons from falling into the hands of hostile Islamist armed groups. Although several rebel factions in Syria have aligned themselves with the ruling Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) government in Damascus, Israeli leaders claim that these many rebel groups have had anti-Israel ideological positions, which necessitates that Israel pre-emptively destroy any military assets that these groups may end up acquiring amid the chaos and instability in the country. 

Lebanon: LAF enter southern town to implement the ceasefire
On 2 January, the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) prepared to enter the southern Lebanese town of Naqoura and take a position thereafter observing the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the area, making it the third withdrawal of Israeli forces from towns it occupied during its invasion of Lebanon that began on 1 October 2024. The Israeli withdrawal and LAF’s entry into Naqoura followed the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement, effective on 27 November 2024, which mandated Israel to withdraw from Lebanon within 60 days and for the LAF to establish a monopoly of force in those areas after seizing all weapons and dismantling all Hezbollah assets, in line with the UN Security Council’s Resolution 1701. Previously, the LAF took up positions in southern Lebanon’s Khiam and Chamaa towns, implementing the terms of the ceasefire. However, Israel continued to shell Lebanon’s towns, including Yater, Beit Lif, Bint Jbeil, Ramyah, and Majdal Zoun, claiming that dismantling Hezbollah's infrastructure was an act of self-defence mandated by the ceasefire. Criticising Israel’s violation of the agreement, Hezbollah-affiliated member of Lebanon’s National Assembly, Hussein Hajj, complained of “the daily Israeli violations of the ceasefire agreement many forms,” accusing its forces of entering areas that it could not reach during its invasion. Israel has 23 days left to completely withdraw from southern Lebanon, with political observers noting that Hezbollah might resume engaging Israeli troops after that period. 

Israel: UN representative calls for doctors’ boycott following raid on Gaza hospital
On 2 January, UN Special Rapporteur for the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Francesca Albanese, called on doctors to “sever all ties with Israel” following the latter’s military raid and shut down of northern Gaza’s Kamal Adwan hospital, which culminated in the IDF detaining its Director, Hussam Abu Safiya. Albanese launched the boycott campaign on social media as a concrete way to denounce Israel’s full destruction of the Palestinian healthcare system in Gaza, calling it a “critical tool of its ongoing genocide.” The campaign invited a response from pro-Israeli social media users, calling for Hamas to release all its hostages as a precondition for ending the war. Despite criticism from the UN representative and pro-Palestinian observers, Israel Defence Forces (IDF) 401st Brigade framed its raid of the hospital as part of its continuing operations in northern Gaza, which aims to cut off Gaza City from the rest of the enclave’s north. 

Israel: Two rockets launched from northern Gaza
On 4 January, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) reported two rockets launched from Gaza. Both rockets were launched from northern Gaza, with one landing near north Gaza’s Erez Crossing and another near the Netiv Hasara border community in northern Israel. The IDF did not specify which Palestinian group launched the attack. On the same day, the IDF reported that its troops destroyed a residential complex near northern Gaza’s Beit Hanoun town, which Hamas was allegedly using as a command centre. The operation was part of an IDF’s attempts to protect the civilian community in northern Israel’s Netiv Hasara and the rail line connecting it with nearby Sderot — an infrastructural link that has remained inactive since 7 October 2023. 

Israel: IAF strikes kill multiple “terrorists” in Khan Younis
On 7 January, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted airstrikes in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis, killing what it described as multiple “terrorists” who participated in the 7 October 2023 attacks led by Hamas and its allied Palestinian factions. The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) added that it took measures to ensure the safety of civilians before the strike by using aerial surveillance, precise munitions, and intelligence inputs from the country’s internal security agency, the Shin Bet (formally called Israel Security Agency). 

Lebanon: Agrees to extradite Muslim Brotherhood-affiliated activist
On 8 January, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati stated that his government would extradite Egyptian-Turkish activist Abdul Rahman al-Qaradawi to the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The son of a Muslim Brotherhood cleric, Yusuf al-Qaradawi, Abdul was arrested in late December while returning from Syria, where he had travelled following the fall of longtime President Bashar al-Assad. While in Syria, the Muslim-Brotherhood-affiliated activist released a video of him, expressing hopes that the masses in the “Zionist Arab” states of Egypt, the UAE and Saudi Arabia would overthrow their governments in a “flood of change.” Furthermore, Qaradawi identified Hamas’ “Operation Al-Aqsa Flood” of October 2023 as the model for such mass movements. Upon returning to Lebanon, government agencies arrested Qaradawi, and the UAE and Egypt filed extradition requests shortly after. The Muslim Brotherhood is a banned organisation in the UAE and Egypt, with Cairo categorising it as a terrorist group, principally for its role in the Arab Spring.

Egypt: Foreign minister holds talk with UK on Gaza and Syria
On 2 January, Egypt’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Badr Abdelatty and the United Kingdom’s National Security Advisor, Jonathan Powell, held talks in Cairo, discussing the crises in Gaza and Syria. Following the negotiations, Abdelatty highlighted Egypt’s mediation efforts to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza. Highlighting Israel’s “systemic violations against Palestinians, which contravene all international conventions,” he emphasised the need to accelerate humanitarian aid delivery into the enclave. Furthermore, he tacitly criticised Israel’s annexation of Syria’s Golan Heights, the movement of Israeli troops into the cross-border buffer zone and on Syria’s side of Mount Hermon, calling for “respect for its (Syria’s) unity and territorial integrity.”

Democratic Republic of Congo: M23 rebels capture Masisi town
On 5 January, Al Jazeera reported that the M23 rebels in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo seized control of the Masisi town, 80 kilometres from Goma. The leader of the anti-government group, Congo River Alliance (AFC) which is part of M23, Corneille Nangaa, confirmed that the rebels have captured the region. Al Jazeera quoted the local sources that the fighting displaced thousands to neighbouring regions including Goma, which already hosts four million displaced people. While the recent Angola-led peace mediation between Rwanda and DRC failed, DRC’s President Felix Tshisekedi has maintained his position not to hold direct dialogue with the rebels. 

Nigeria: Six soldiers and 34 militants killed in a clash in Borno
On 8 January, Africanews reported that six soldiers and 34 militants died in a fighting in Nigeria’s Borno state. Nigeria’s military spokesperson Edward Buba stated: “The terrorists had attempted to surprise troops and retaliate against the recent killing of their commander and combatants by troops.” Boko Haram is suspected to be behind the attack. The group has been active in the state since 2009, trying to enforce the Shariah law.  

Europe and The Americas
Montenegro: National Security Council discusses ways to curb illegal weapons
On 4 January, Euronews reported that Montenegro's National Security Council had called for an emergency session to discuss a new gun law and urgent actions to confiscate illegal weapons in Montenegro from 6,20,000 citizens. Montenegro has a deeply rooted gun culture. State television broadcaster RTCG reported that Montenegro is sixth in the world in terms of number of illegal weapons per capita. After the mass shooting incident which killed 12 citizens, gun laws have come under public scrutiny. Many citizens are angry at the authorities for being lethargic towards taking action to prevent similar incidents. There was another incident of mass shooting in 2022 where ten citizens were killed.

Russia: Defence ministry claims control of Kurakhove in Donbas
On 6 January, Russia’s Ministry of Defence reported on its forces taking control of the largest settlement in southwest Donbas. The ministry further added that Ukraine transformed Kurakhove into a fortified area through a network of firing positions, underground communications and a water basin in the north. Ukraine also deployed around 15000 troops and reinforced military equipment. The ministry added that Ukraine lost 80 per cent of its personnel and around 3000 units of weapons and military equipment. It also said that the loss of Kurakhove would make it difficult for Ukraine, especially in logistical support.

France: Macron calls for Ukraine to adopt a "realistic approach" on territorial issues
On 7 January, Politico quoted France’s President Emmanuel Macron, calling for Ukraine to adopt a “realistic stance.” He said that Ukraine should have a “realistic stance on territorial issues” as the prospects of peace talks with Russia seemed to be approaching. He was referring to territorial concessions for the first time. He additionally said that the US would help in resolving the conflict, while the EU would provide Ukraine with security guarantees. However, he added that there won't be a “quick solution to the conflict.” The statements were made during a speech to French ambassadors in Paris.

The US: Biden invites Gonzalez to the White House
On 8 January, US President Joe Biden invited Edmundo Gonzalez, the opposition leader of Venezuela, to the White House. Gonzales is currently living in Spain in exile. Joe Biden has called him the “true winner” of the presidential elections. Biden has also said that Venezuela deserves a peaceful transition of power. The currently ruling Maduro government accused Biden of backing a violent anti-democratic project.

The US: Wildfires in southern California
On 8 January, California’s governor Gavin Newsom stated that more than 1,400 firefighters have been deployed to contain the wildfires in the state. Local fire officials said that the firefighters are working on three separate major fires, covering nearly 4,500 acres of land. Thousands of California residents have been ordered to evacuate, with six emergency shelters in operation. According to BBC, more than 25,000 people in 10,000 homes were threatened, and the city of Malibu has warned all residents to be prepared to evacuate at short notice.

About the authors
Padmashree Anandhan and Anu Maria Joseph are Project Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad. Vaishak Sreekumar, C Shraddha, and Kumari Krishna are postgraduate students at Jindal Global University, Sonipat. Nova Karun is a postgraduate student at Pondicherry University. 

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