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CWA # 1571, 17 January 2025
Conflict Weekly
The Israel-Hamas Deal and Wildfires in California

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #264, 16 January 2025, Vol.6, No.3
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Ayan Datta and Samruddhi Pathak

The Middle East: The new Israel-Hamas Deal, and its inherent faultlines
Ayan Datta
 
In the news
On 15 January, US President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump declared a ceasefire-for-hostages deal between Israel and Hamas, mediated by envoys from both administrations, Qatar and Egypt. Although neither side released the agreement’s full text, a leak obtained by the Associated Press indicated it would be a three-phase deal. During the first phase (42 to 60 days), both sides would temporarily cease hostilities. Hamas would release 33 hostages, including women, children, and severely wounded and infirm individuals. In response, Israel releases approximately 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. However, these would not include prisoners who participated in the 7 October attacks. Furthermore, prisoners convicted of attacks against Israelis, especially high-profile “terrorists,” would be barred from the West Bank and remain in Gaza or other Arab countries. During this phase, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) would partially withdraw from Gaza’s major population centres. However, the IDF would maintain a presence along the Gaza-Egypt border and establish buffer zones along the Israel-Gaza boundary during this stage to maintain leverage over Hamas. Qatar’s Prime Minister, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani, reported that this phase would take effect starting 19 January.

Negotiations for the second would begin 16 days after the first phase’s implementation. The focus would be on recovering the approximately 60 remaining hostages, including the bodies of deceased captives. The final phase could involve a potential Israeli withdrawal from the Strip and an inflow of aid and reconstruction investment. However, the details of the deal were still being finalised with multiple sticking points on both sides, including the issues of Israeli troop presence in Gaza, numbers and names of prisoners and hostages, and the political future of the Strip. 

On 16 January, far-right Minister of National Security Itamar Ben-Gvir and Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich condemned the deal and threatened that they would resign from the government and withdraw support to Netanyahu’s coalition. Ben-Gvir called the deal “reckless” because it would lead to “the release of hundreds of murderous terrorists…erase the achievements of the war…(and) seal the fate of the hostages who remain (beyond those freed in the first phase),” leaving Hamas “with a significant ability to rebuild itself. Furthermore, Smotrich demanded Israel’s “return to the war to destroy Hamas and the return of all the hostages…immediately upon the conclusion of the first phase of the deal.”

On 17 January, US President Joe Biden welcomed the ceasefire-for-hostages deal. Biden emphasised that the deal would “halt the fighting in Gaza, surge much-needed humanitarian assistance to Palestinian civilians, and reunite the hostages with their families.” Meanwhile, President-elect Donald Trump claimed the agreement was a result of his “Peace Through Strength” approach, stressing the deal would not have been reached without his “Historic Victory in November.” 

On the same day, the Office of Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, stressed that Israel was “committed to achieving all the goals of the war, including the return of all our hostages.” Additionally, Netanyahu’s office stressed that the deal would be implemented after a security cabinet vote. 

On the same day, Hamas also confirmed the deal, with the group’s senior official, Izzat al-Rishq, stating that the group was “committed to the ceasefire agreement, which was announced by the mediators.”

Issues at large
First, earlier efforts for a ceasefire. The successful agreement follows the first ceasefire-hostage-release deal since November 2023, which saw a weeklong truce, during which 50 Israeli hostages and 150 Palestinian prisoners were released. During 2024, there were at least four attempted deals, especially following Biden’s three-phase plan, which came in July. Although the US and Qatar consistently acted as channels of communication between the two, with Egypt and Saudi Arabia providing additional assistance, differences persisted on several key issues, including the nature of the ceasefire, Israel’s presence in Gaza, and the enclave’s post-war political future, which stalled the talks. 

Second, the major demands. Throughout the negotiations, Netanyahu has insisted on keeping the ceasefire temporary because he wants to continue military campaigns in Gaza after recovering the hostages. Hamas previously wanted Washington to make a permanent ceasefire an inalienable part of the agreement. However, after being weakened by Israel’s onslaught and Iran’s decline, the group has adopted a flexible posture and agreed to postpone all talk of a permanent ceasefire to the second stage of negotiations. Separately, Netanyahu wants Israel to maintain a troop presence in Gaza to prevent Hamas from reconstituting its forces. For Hamas, however, the deal must lead to a complete Israeli withdrawal from the enclave. On post-war control of Gaza, Netanyahu wants Israel to take over “overriding security control” of the enclave with its administration. For Hamas, it intends to recover political control over Gaza. 

Third, the major challenges. Both sides are pursuing fundamentally incompatible strategic outcomes, making reconciliation difficult for the mediators. Despite Biden’s insistence, Netanyahu does not want to withdraw completely from Gaza or permit Palestinian governance in the enclave, arguing it would enable Hamas to reconstitute its forces and regain political influence. Parallelly, Hamas still has fighters active in the enclave and does not want a complete surrender of its forces. Relinquishing its claim of political control over Gaza is also unacceptable for the group because it would mean the abandonment of Palestinian territorial claims. Additionally, Hamas is reluctant to release its hostages because they constitute crucial leverage against Israel. Although Biden has favoured Israel, he has had to work with Arab mediators (Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia) who cannot afford to be seen as capitulating to Tel Aviv. Together, the mediators have had to balance Israel’s security needs with Hamas’ continued relevance, the legitimacy of the Palestinian cause, the optics of Gaza’s poor humanitarian situation, and the need for regional stability. 

Fourth, Trump’s stance. Unlike Biden’s unassertive posture, Trump wanted to portray himself as the peacemaker of the Middle East and frame the deal as the opening victory of his second term. As a result, he flexed the US’ leverage over the region, promising “hell” for all sides if his 20 January deadline was not met. The President-elect utilised his ties with Netanyahu, sending his prospective Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to his Jerusalem residence to get the deal through. Most importantly, he dropped Biden’s demand for Palestinian control over Gaza, making Netanyahu more likely to agree. Luck also favoured Trump since his November election coincided with a weakened Hamas, making the group more pliable to concessions. 
 
In perspective
It took over a year of negotiations and the combined diplomatic and political capital of two US administrations to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza. With both sides presenting maximalist positions through 2024, the unassertive Biden proved incapable of clinching a deal despite handling the bulk of the negotiations. Although Trump succeeded in enforcing his red lines on the Middle East, he also substantially relaxed Biden’s demands on Israel in the process. Concerned mainly about his domestic standing, the President-elect gave up Biden’s plans of achieving a lasting peace through Palestinian control of the enclave, instead going for a deal that would be effective in the immediate term. As for the terms of the agreement, the phased release of hostages and Israel’s insistence on maintaining a presence in Gaza presents a grave humanitarian concern, revealing that Netanyahu places a greater premium on occupying the enclave than recovering the stranded captives, many of whom are already on the verge of death.

The US: Wildfires in California
Samruddhi Pathak
 
In the news
On 15 January, Al Jazeera reported on five active fires in California. Out of the five, Eaton and Palisades are the biggest fires covering an area of 14,000 and 23,000 acres. Palisades remains 14 per cent controlled and Eaton 33 per cent. 

On 13 January, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass stated: “This unprecedented natural disaster warrants an unprecedented response that will expedite the rebuilding of homes, businesses and communities.”

On 11 January, CNN reported that at least 25 people were reported to be killed by the wildfires. The Eaton fire has caused 16 deaths. 

On 8 January, Governor of California, Gavin Newsom said: “To those who would seek to take advantage of evacuated communities, let me be clear: looting will not be tolerated.”

Issues at large
First, California’s recurring wildfires. Wildfires in 2025 have been the most devastating wildfires so far which reached residential areas of the state. However, wildfires have been a recurring event in California every year. In 2018, a wildfire killed more than 85 people and damaged more than 19,000 houses. It cost damages of USD 30 billion. 2020, 2021 and 2024 also recorded large wildfires in California with very less casualties. 

Second, the weather anomalies in US. Weather conditions in Los Angeles counties including less humidity and widespread winds furthered the fires. Santa Ana winds are seasonal winds experienced in California. They are hot and dry winds which gain hurricane-like speed of 70 mph when they hit mountains in California. California also faces a drought-like situation since it did not receive adequate rainfall in 2024. All these factors have made the weather dry which was supposed to be the most humid time of the year. This led to the propagation of fire. 

Third, the state response. California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) had deployed 783 imprisoned firefighters. A total of 2,000 firefighters have been deployed in Los Angeles counties. Mass evacuations were carried out. The state has also called on more than 7,500 emergency personnel and first responders from the National Guard and firefighters from other states. More than 1,50,000 people in California are under evacuation orders. Gavin Newsom, the Governor of California, had declared a state of emergency and ordered building shelters and a curfew from 6 AM to 6 PM in Palisades and Eaton’s affected areas. He also deployed the California National Guard to contain the fires.

Fourth, law and order issues. Almost 92,000 people in California have been displaced and 12,000 homes were left empty in the evacuation zones. This has led to an increase in looting and theft. The police are still working to ensure residents’ property is safe from looters. Significant human casualties were also a result of ignored warnings issued by the government. The Government of California issued evacuation orders for areas affected by the Palisades and Eaton fires. However, the public did not expect the fires to reach residential areas and thus did not vacate the houses. 

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Samruddhi Pathak, Ayan Datta, Sayeka Ghosh, Neha Tresa George, Nuha Aamina, Nova Karun, Vaishak Sreekumar, C Shraddha, and Kumari Krishna

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
Taiwan: National Security Bureau reports surge in spies for China
On 13 January, the National Security Bureau of Taiwan reported a suspected rise in the number of Taiwanese spies for China on the island, bringing the total to 64 individuals. The number of Taiwanese charged with attempted espionage for China increased from ten people in 2022 to 48 in 2024. According to the bureau report, two-thirds of the spies are retired or current members of the armed forces. The bureau added that the spies have tried to recruit members through criminal gangs, religious groups and illegal financial institutions. China’s Taiwan Affairs Office has not responded to these allegations.

Taiwan: Chinese ship accused of undersea cable damage
On 9 January, Taiwan blamed a ship associated with China for a broken undersea cable along its northern coastline. The ship’s owner denied involvement. The vessel, registered to Cameroon and Tanzania, owned by a Hong Kong firm, has been suspected of carrying out "grey zone" activity. China dismissed the claims as baseless and described the incident as a maritime accident. 

North Korea: “I want to live here,” says captured North Korean soldiers in Ukraine  
On 13 January, The Korea Herald reported that Ukraine released a video of two captured North Korean soldiers. One of the soldiers expressed the desire to remain in Ukraine and said: “I want to live here.” The soldier revealed that he was unaware he was being deployed for war and believed it was combat training. Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy offered to exchange the soldiers for Ukrainians held in Russia or explore options for those unwilling to return to North Korea. 

South Korea: President Yoon Suk Yeol detained over his martial law imposition
On 15 January, South Korea’s impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol was taken into custody following an investigation against his sudden martial law declaration on 3 December. He became the first sitting South Korean president to face detention. Yoon’s legal team claimed the warrant was unconstitutional and cited violations of the Criminal Procedure Act. During the operation, a joint probe team of 6,500 personnel clashed with Yoon's security team. Yoon stated he complied to avoid violence but denounced the investigation as illegal. The extended warrant on the charges of abuse of power and insurrection is set to expire on January 21. 

Japan: Southwest Japan hit by magnitude 6.6 earthquake  
On 13 January, a magnitude 6.6 earthquake struck southwest Japan, leading to a tsunami advisory for Miyazaki and Kochi prefectures. 20 centimetres long waves were recorded at Miyazaki Port. However, there was no major damage. The earthquake centred 36 kilometres deep in Kyushu, caused minor landslides and ruptured water pipes. The Japan’s Meteorological Agency (JMA) officials warned of potential aftershocks in the next few days. reviewed links to the Nankai Trough, a region prone to significant quakes, but found no immediate need for extraordinary measures. The power remained intact and no issues were reported at nearby nuclear plants. The tsunami advisories were lifted before midnight.

South Asia
Pakistan: Cybercrime conviction rate alarmingly low
On 15 January, Dawn reported that the Ministry of Interior has revealed that since 2020 there have been over 7020 arrests for cybercrime with 222 convictions. This marked a conviction rate of 3.16 per cent. Officials stated that this was due to capacity issues, unclear cybercrime laws, and frequent changes in investigation authorities. From 2020 to 2024, the Federal Investigation Agency’s (FIA) cybercrime cell received 6,39,564 complaints and verified 4,14,260. This led to 73,825 inquiries and 5,713 cases filed. 

Pakistan: IED blast injures four in Chaman
On 10 January, Chaman, a small town in Balochistan at the Afghanistan-Pakistan border witnessed an improvised explosive device (IED) blast, injuring four people. As per the police officials, the attack targeted a Frontier Corps (FC) truck. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan took responsibility for the explosion. Separately, unidentified militants set ablaze a “levies post” in Mastung. The militants took possession of the “official weapons.” 

Pakistan: Militants abduct 17 workers of the Atomic Energy Commission
On 9 January, militants abducted 17 private workers of the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) from Lakki. Eight workers were rescued by the police later. Police are searching for the remaining people kidnapped. Separately, police forces and the Counter Terrorism Department (CTD) managed to kill three militants of the Teepu Gull group in Lakki Marwat, affiliated with Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan. Additionally, one soldier was killed in a terrorist attack in Dera Ismail Khan; four other soldiers were wounded in the attack. 

The Middle East and Africa
Syria: Sharaa meets Italian leaders, discusses easing sanctions
On 10 January, Syria’s de-facto leader, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Assad Hassan Al-Shaibani, met Italy’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Antonio Tajani. The trio engaged in talks on easing sanctions on Syria imposed during former President Bashar Al-Assad’s regime. Tajani stressed that since the restrictions were imposed on a different regime, it was “important to open discussions on the changed situation.” Furthermore, Tajani said Italy wanted to serve as a bridge from Damascus to the EU, which would transform the Mediterranean Sea into a “sea of development” from what it presently is — “a sea of death, a cemetery of migrants.” Furthermore, Al-Shaibani promised that Al-Sharaa’s government would block illegal immigration and combat drug trafficking, adding that these were “two crucial commitments for Italy.” 

Israel: IAF conducts airstrikes against Houthis
On 10 January, Israeli Air Force (IAF) fighter jets struck Yemeni Houthi targets, with Israel’s leaders promising to kill the latter’s leaders unless they stopped their drone and missile attacks on Israel. According to the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), over 20 warplanes, including F-16 Soufa fighter jets, refuelers and reconnaissance aircraft, took part in the operation. The Israeli jets dropped around 50 munitions on the ports of Hodeidah and Ras Isa in western Yemen and the Hezyaz power plant near Yemen’s capital, Sanaa. The IDF added that the power plant served “as a central source of energy for the Houthi terrorist regime in its military activities.” Following the strikes, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the Yemeni group was “paying, and will continue to pay, a heavy price for their aggression against” them. Calling the Houthis “an extension of Iran.” Netanyahu emphasised that they posed a danger not only to Israel but to the entire region since the armed group was harming global freedom of navigation in the Red Sea. 

Israel: Shin Bet urges counterterrorism operation in West Bank
On 10 January, Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar urged Prime Minister Netanyahu to launch a major “counterterrorism operation” in the West Bank. Bar argued that the prevailing data that indicated a decrease in the number of attacks in the Palestinian enclave did not “reflect the scope of terrorism on the ground.” He believed there was a “consistent escalating trend from 2021” where attackers used rifles and explosive devices. Noting this intensification in West Bank attacks, the security chief called for a “broad, reality-changing move” by Israel’s security forces that would eliminate the enclave’s armed groups. Bar’s suggestion followed a month-long security operation in the West Bank by the Palestinian Authority, which has so far led to at least eight deaths, 247 arrests, and 245 explosive devices being defused. 

Saudi Arabia: Foreign Minister issues communique on removing sanctions on Syria
On 12 January, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al-Saud, concluded discussions with leaders of the EU, the US, Germany, and the UK on the sanctions imposed on Syria. During the meeting, they deliberated on the international and unilateral sanctions imposed on Syria. Saudi Arabia reiterated its commitment to the removal of sanctions in the interest of Syria’s economic reconstruction. Elucidating the adverse humanitarian consequences of the sanctions, the communique lamented the international restrictions on Syria’s economy had “made it very difficult to import or export raw goods.” This had led to perpetual inflation of prices of essential goods, including food and medicines, placing immense strain on ordinary Syrians. Additionally, restrictions on fuel imports meant that the country frequently experienced power outages. 

Lebanon: Israel strikes Hezbollah targets
On 12 January, the Israeli Air Force (IAF) targeted multiple Hezbollah targets, reportedly destroying a rocket launcher site, a military location, and routes along the Syria-Lebanon border that Hezbollah was allegedly using to transfer weapons. Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese sources provided more precise information on the attacks, reporting that Israel had targeted Deir El Zahrani and Houmine El Faouqa in southern Lebanon’s Nabatiya region, with additional strikes in the Bekaa Valley region bordering Syria. Before the attacks, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) presented a report of the Hezbollah assets to the members of the monitoring mechanism — a five-member coordination committee for implementing the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, chaired by the US. However, the IDF reported that the mechanism did not address their concerns, forcing them to launch airstrikes.  

Iraq: 11 PKK fighters killed near Turkey border
On 11 January, Turkey’s security forces killed 11 fighters of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in northern Iraq’s Hakurk, Metina and Gara regions, which lie adjacent to Iraq’s border with Turkey. Reporting on the operations, Turkey’s Ministry of Defence stated that they were part of Ankara’s determination to “eliminate terrorism at its source.” Northern Iraq is home to the Kurdistan Autonomous Province, which Turkey claims is used by PKK fighters as a rear base. 

Sudan: Shelling in Omdurman kills 120 
On 13 January, BBC reported that at least 120 people were killed in random shelling in Omdurman. It is unclear which group is behind the attack, although most of Omdurman is under the control of the RSF. Meanwhile, on 12 January, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) captured Wad Madani city in the Gezira state from the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The RSF leader, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, acknowledged the loss and promised to continue the fight until victory, even if it took 20 more years. Apart from its proximity to Sudan’s capital, Khartoum, the city connects multiple states through its highways. 

South Africa: Police retrieves 82 survivors and 36 bodies from gold mine
On 14 January, Al Jazeera reported that South Africa’s police rescued 82 survivors and recovered 36 bodies from a gold mine in Stilfontein, southwest of Johannesburg. This was amidst a government crackdown on illegal mining. Minister of Mining Gwede Mantashe called illegal mining “a war on the economy,” and linked it to a USD 3.17 billion illicit trade in 2022. The arrested survivors face charges of illegal mining, trespassing, and immigration violations. Human rights organisations and residents are questioning the humanitarian approach of the “Vala Umgodi” operation. 

Democratic Republic of Congo: Congolese army recaptures towns in eastern DRC
On 13 January, Al Jazeera reported that the Congolese army recaptured several towns in eastern DRC. This included Ngungu, Lumbishi and Ruzirantaka which were under rebel control for months. Despite these victories, the fight continues with the Masisi Center held by rebels. The army spokesperson in North Kivu, Guillaume Ndjike Kaiko said: “They [the rebels] have seen their adventure come to a halt by the FARDC.” The conflict involving the M23 group has displaced nearly two million people since 2022. 

Nigeria: At least 40 farmers killed in Borno state
On 13 January, Nigerian government officials stated that at least 40 farmers were killed in northeastern Nigeria’s Borno state. Borno State Governor Babagana Umara Zulum and State Information Commissioner Usman Tar stated that Boko Haram and Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP) are suspected to be behind the attack. The attack occurred in the Dumba region near Lake Chad. Tar said: “Initial report indicates about 40 farmers have been killed while the whereabouts of many who escaped the attack are being traced for reunion with their families.” 

Nigeria: Bandits kill 21 government-backed fighters in Katsina state
On 11 January, Al Jazeera quoted northwestern Nigeria’s Katsina state authorities that bandits killed 21 government-backed fighters. The fighters were reportedly from the Katsina Community Watch Corps (KCWC), an armed force established by Governor Dikko Umar in 2023 to counter the region’s gangs, bandits, and other armed groups. However, the report also added that Nigeria’s Premium Times recorded 25 people being killed.

Europe and The Americas
Russia: Claim to capture villages in eastern Donetsk
On 12 January, the Russian military claimed to have captured two villages in eastern Ukraine. This comes as Russia has been observed to be advancing in the eastern Donetsk region. According to Russian forces, Yantarne village, located ten kilometres southwest of Kurakove, was captured the previous week and an area in the northwest of Kurakhove was additionally captured this week. Besides, Kalinove village in the northeastern Kharkiv Oblast was also taken over. 

Russia: Condemns Ukraine for drone attacks over several cities
On 11 January, RT reported on the Ukrainian attacks targeting several cities in Russia. Drone attacks in Kotovsk city damaged two buildings. Tambov Oblast Governor Evgeny Pervyshov stated that several people were injured from the attacks. Voronezh Oblast governor Aleksandr Gusev stated that over 15 drones were downed in the region. A drone attack was additionally reported in a tourist town called Anapa, on the Black Sea Coast across Crimea. In addition, the Belgorod region recorded damages in three houses in the village of Maysky from UAVs. Meanwhile, Russia’s Ministry of Defence noted that over 35 drones were destroyed in the overnight attack.

Germany: More than 5,00,000 are homeless, reveals Homelessness Report
On 8 January, Germany’s Homelessness Report revealed that around 531,600 are without a permanent shelter. According to the statistics and the empirical survey, around 439,500 were housed in the emergency housing assistance system as of the end of January, and beginning of February 2024, while a further 60,400 were staying with relatives, friends or acquaintances. In total, around two-thirds of those recorded homeless are male. The statistics also revealed more than half of those without a permanent shelter had experienced violence since becoming homeless. The Minister of Housing, Urban Development and Construction of Germany, Klara Geywitz, said that the report "shows that homelessness takes different forms and has different causes and is by no means a purely urban problem." She further stated that the German government was taking steps to alleviate homelessness.

Haiti: Internal displacement rises by 87 per cent in Haiti
On 15 January, the United Nations’ International Organisation on Migration (IOM) issued a warning against gang violence in Haiti. According to the UN, the number of Haitians internally displaced due to gang violence, which is one million, has tripled in 2024 compared to 2023. In 2024, more than 5,600 people were killed in gang violence in Haiti. 85 per cent of Port au-Prince, the capital of Haiti, is estimated to be under gang control. The international police force was deployed to help the Haitian National Police force. However, it is underfunded and lacks the necessary equipment to take on the heavily armed gangs. 

The US: Cuba to be removed from state sponsor of terrorism list
On 15 January, the White House announced that US President Joe Biden would remove Cuba from the list of state sponsors of terrorism list. The decision is part of a prisoner exchange deal signed between the two countries. Cuba announced it would release 553 prisoners detained for "diverse crimes." Then-US President Donald Trump reinstated the country's terror designation banning US economic aid and arms exports to the country in 2021. However, there are speculations that the decision might be reversed when the new government takes over. The new nominee for the post of the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has vouched for sanctions against Cuba. 

About the authors
Samruddhi Pathak, Abhiruchi Chowdary, Neha Tresa George, Sayeka Ghosh and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad. Vaishak Sreekumar, C Shraddha, and Kumari Krishna are postgraduate students at Jindal Global University, Sonipat. Nova Karun is a postgraduate student at Pondicherry University. 

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