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CWA # 1572, 23 January 2025
Conflict Weekly
The Israel-Hamas Deal (and its challenges)

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #265, 23 January 2025, Vol.6, No.4
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Rohini Reenum

Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal: Will it hold?
Rohini Reenum
 
In the news
On 19 January, the ceasefire deal between Hamas and Israel, mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the US, came into effect, marking the beginning of the first phase of the three-phase deal. On that day, Hamas released three Israeli hostages while Israel released 90 Palestinian prisoners. 

On 20 January, US President Donald Trump stated that he was “not confident” about the longevity of the deal. He added that this was not the US’s war and claimed that Hamas was “very weakened on the other side.” Terming Gaza a “massive demolition site,” he suggested that it has to be “rebuilt in a different way” and that he might help with the reconstruction.

On the same day, Trump’s Envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, said: “A stable and prosperous Middle East is not an unattainable dream. It is a goal within our reach.”

On 21 January, Reuters reported that since the ceasefire came into effect, nearly 2400 trucks carrying aid have entered Gaza.

On 22 January, The Times of Israel quoted Channel 12 that Israel’s Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich convening a meeting to gather support and launch a campaign for ending the ceasefire deal after the completion of the first phase.

On the same day, Al Jazeera reported that Steve Witkoff is set to visit Gaza as part of an “inspection team” to ensure the implementation of the deal. 

Issues at large
First, the conditional nature of the three-phase deal. The first phase of the ceasefire deal is to last for six weeks. The second and third phases will witness the release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for a larger number of Palestinian prisoners, including those arrested after Hamas’s 7 October attack. Additionally, this phase will see a partial withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza to areas not more than 700 metres inside Gaza’s border with Israel. Israeli forces in the Netzarim Corridor will remain, however, there will be a partial withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor. The deadline for full withdrawal is 50 days from the start of the deal. Further, aid will be allowed into Gaza on a much larger scale with a maximum of around 600 trucks/day. Palestinians will be allowed to return to their homes. If negotiations succeed, the second phase will witness the release of all remaining Israeli hostages, the beginning of the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the release of more Palestinian prisoners by Israel. The particulars of the third phase are unclear. However, the third phase will see the bodies of remaining Israeli hostages returned in exchange for a three- to five-year reconstruction plan in Gaza under international supervision.

Second, the domestic opposition in Israel. Currently, only the first phase of the deal has been approved by the security cabinet and the parliament. Despite the approval, political opposition to the deal in Israel remains, even with Netanyahu’s Likud party. David Amsalem and Amichai Chikli from the Likud party voted against the deal. Additionally, members of the government from other parties have voted against the deal. This includes Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir, Yitzhak Wasserlauf and Amichai Eliyahu from the ultranationalist Otzma Yehudit Party, Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich, Orit Strock and Ofer Sofer from the far-right Religious Zionism Party. Otzma Yehudit had threatened to quit the coalition over the deal, however, Netanyahu was able to assure his party’s continued support. There have been calls to resume military operations after the first phase given that Israel’s objectives - the destruction of Hamas and its governance capability in Gaza. Both have not been achieved so far. 

Third, the central yet limited role of the US. The outgoing Biden and the new Trump administration have claimed credit for the agreement. A section believes it was “Trump’s pressure” that led to the finalization of the agreement. The US has assured Hamas of the continuance of the deal even if negotiations for the second and third phases do not conclude within the stipulated timeframe. However, despite the US pressure, Netanyahu has refused to give any written guarantees that there will be no resumption of hostilities, indicating the US’ limited influence. 
 
In perspective
First, the fragile and conditional nature of the ceasefire. The domestic opposition in Israel to the deal, the conditional nature of negotiations for phase two and three, including a lack of clarity on the subsequent phases and Israel’s reluctance to guarantee that it will not resume hostilities add to the fragility of the deal struck among parties that are deeply distrustful of the other. Moreover, despite Israel’s extensive military offensive in Gaza and claims of a decimated Hamas, the fact remains that it was unable to recover its hostages. Further, any miscalculations or misadventures by Hamas can derail talks and jeopardize the continuation of the deal.

Second, the lack of clarity over Gaza’s reconstruction and governance. The US has suggested a “reformed version of the Palestinian Authority” with former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken suggesting that international partners can prop up a “governing authority” to ensure the running of essential services. Additionally, he has suggested that the Arab countries can play a central in providing security stationing security forces. This proposed solution is complicated by the fact that Saudi Arabia has reiterated that their support for any “scheme” would be contingent upon an assured “pathway to Palestinian statehood,” a condition that is highly unlikely to be acceptable to the Israelis. Interestingly, Israel has said nothing on the matter. That this multiplicity of views and plans is likely to complicate a consensus on the future of Gaza seems like a safe bet.

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Padmashree Anandhan, Femy Francis, Ayan Datta, Sayeka Ghosh, Nuha Aamina, Nova Krun, Vaishak Sreekumar, C Shraddha, and Kumari Krishna

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
Taiwan: 6.4 magnitude earthquake
On 21 January, Taiwan was hit by an earthquake of 6.4 magnitude, causing collateral damage to the infrastructure. The earthquake’s epicentre was the Sising village, leading to the isolation and trap of 50 villagers. According to Taiwan’s Ministry of Health, 26 people were injured. The earthquake caused landslides in Chiayi County in the Dapu township. Taiwan is geographically located in the Pacific Ring of Fire which is vulnerable to tectonic activities.

Japan: Competition with Germany for Australian frigate contract
On 20 January, The Japan Times reported that Japan is competing against Germany for Australia's Project Sea 3000. This project comprises the construction of seven to 11 advanced frigates by 2029 and is worth an estimated USD 4.3 to USD 6.8 billion. Japan is offering an upgraded Mogami-class frigate with superior stealth, subsequent efficient automation and cost efficiencies as there is a struggling effort to augment defence relations and exports. However, Japan is facing major competition from Germany’s Meko A-200. Tokyo’s biggest challenges are a lack of experience in exporting major defence equipment, matters around confidential information, maintenance and the transfer of skills and intellectual property rights.

Myanmar: China brokers a ceasefire agreement between the military and MNDAA
On 20 January, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that it brokered a ceasefire agreement between the Myanmar military and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). The talks were held in the city of Kunming in China. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Mao Ning stated: "Cooling down the situation in the north of Myanmar is in the common interest of all parties in Myanmar and all countries in the region, and contributes to the security, stability and development of the border areas between China and Myanmar.” The MNDAA is one of the ethnic militias which is also part of the Three Brotherhood Alliance with the Ta'ang National Liberation Army and the Arakan Army, fighting against the Myanmar military along China’s border. 

Myanmar: 28 Detainees killed in a military airstrike
On 20 January, The Guardian reported that a Myanmar military airstrike in a temporary detention area of the Arakan Army (AA) in the western Rakhine state killed 28 people, including children, and wounded 25 others. According to the reports by the Arakan Army (AA), a military jet bombed a detention area where family members of the military were held. It is unclear whether the airstrike in the Mrauk-U Township was mistargeted or if the military was unaware of the detainment in the location. 

Myanmar: ASEAN’s call to prioritise peace over election
On 19 January, Reuters reported that the ASEAN called on the Myanmar military government to prioritise resolving the civil war and not to hold elections. This comes amid an announcement by the military government to conduct the national election in 2025. Malaysia's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mohamad Hasan, told Tatmadaw’s representative to explore a ceasefire and allow unhindered humanitarian access. Malaysia took over as the chair of ASEAN in 2025. The statement additionally comes from the understanding that any election conducted by the military government will not be free and fair with no participation of opposition parties and voter intimidation.

South Asia 
Pakistan: 50 people die in a boat accident in the Atlantic
On 17 January, Dawn reported that 50 Pakistani nationals died after a boat capsized while trying to reach Europe. The boat was carrying 86 people, with 66 Pakistani nationals from Mauritania to the Canary Islands of Spain. 36 people rescued by Moroccan authorities are staying in a camp near Dakhla. 

Pakistan: Denies plans to occupy the Wakhan corridor
On 16 January, Islamabad assured Kabul that it was not considering any plans to occupy the Wakhan corridor and reiterated that it respects Afghanistan’s sovereignty. Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Shafqat Ali Khan said: “On the Wakhan corridor, what I can say is that I have seen this endless speculation. It is part of Afghan territory. There is no question of Pakistan having designs on one of its neighbors.” This was a response to questions on speculations about Pakistan’s intention to occupy the Wakhan corridor during the Foreign Office briefing. Khan was additionally questioned regarding the visit of the “security establishment” to Tajikistan. Khan did not repudiate the visit, however, pointed out that Pakistan and Tajikistan were close friends. He highlighted Pakistan’s concerns regarding the presence of the Tehreek-e-Taliban in Afghanistan and being supported by its government. 

Pakistan: 22 terrorists killed in Tirah, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
On 17 January, The News International reported that 22 terrorists were killed by security personnel in Tirah, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; 18 others were wounded. Security forces have been engaged in similar intelligence-based operations since 14 December 2024. There has been a recent surge in the number of terrorist attacks in Tirah which has resulted in several deaths. 

Pakistan: Five terrorists killed in Zhob, Balochistan
On 20 January, The News International reported that five terrorists, while attempting to enter Pakistan from Afghanistan, were killed. The operation took place in Zhob, Balochistan. Islamabad has been insisting Afghanistan’s Taliban government address the illegal border crossings and end its support to militant groups. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said: “We are fully determined to root out all types of terrorism from the country.” President Asif Ali Zardari commented on the government's intention to eliminate terrorism and secure the borders. 

Pakistan: Security forces launch attacks on militants in Kurram
On 20 January, Dawn reported on the second day of the security operation in Kurram to root out militants. Security forces identified potential targets and hideouts of the militants in the region. The curfew which was enforced on 19 January in Bagan is continuing. Many families have taken refuge in Thall. As per the residents, two helicopters attacked possible militant hideouts in Pastwani, Maddara, Sangrobba and Jarrni. According to Dawn, security forces are aiming to confiscate weapons in phases and according to the peace accord agreed on 31 December. 

India: Police kill 14 Maoists in Gariaband
On 21 January, police reported that 14 Maoists were killed in an operation conducted in Gariaband district along the Chhattisgarh-Odisha border. Among the dead are a senior member of the highest decision-making body of the Maoists. Minister of Union Amit Shah described it as “another mighty blow to Naxalism.” Additionally, a large catchment of arms and ammunition was recovered from the operation. Chhatisgarh Chief Minister Vishnu Deo Sai stated that the event has strengthened the “resolve of the successful Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and the Honorable Union Home Minister Shri Amit Shah to end Maoism in the country and state by March 2026."

Nepal: Supreme Court issues mandamus to curb illegal mining 
On 20 January, according to Nepal News, the Supreme Court (SC) issued a five-point mandamus to the government to immediately cease the illegal excavation of river-based materials. The mandamus orders the government to frame and implement a River Products and Natural Resources (Excavation and Control) Act. In addition, it called on all seven provinces to adhere to the Work Procedure for the Collection and Use of River Products and conform to the standards of the management, sale and excavation of pebbles, stones and sand. This is aimed at protecting the country's river resources. This comes as a writ petition was filed at the SC to stop the unauthorized mining of rivers and streams in Nepal. 

Bangladesh: 22 injured in clashes between BNP factions in Shyamnagar
On 23 January, ANI reported that 22 people, including police officers and security personnel, were injured in clashes between two factions of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) at Shyamnagar upazila in Satkhira district. The clashes occurred in the Imailpur area of Shyamnagar. After tensions escalated between the two groups, the administration imposed a section 144 with a curfew on public gatherings. 

Bhutan: Global Environment Facility announces USD 20 million for mitigating climate risks 
On 21 January, Kuensel reported that the Global Environment Facility has announced a USD 20 million for climate resilience in urban areas of the Thimpu-Paro region. The region is the most urbanized region that contributes 40 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product of Bhutan. This comes amid low external grants flowing into Bhutan after it upgraded from Least Developed Country status. The funding dropped to BTN 10.6 billion in the 2023-2024 fiscal, highlighting a 26 per cent reduction. Despite attaining a carbon-negative status, Bhutan has been grappling with other issues that necessitate immediate mitigation and adaptation measures. The Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) highlighted the need for nearly USD 0.9 billion to carry about mitigation and adaptation processes within the short term. 

The Middle East and Africa
Iraq: SDF and KDP leaders meet to form “united Kurdish stance”
On 16 January, the commander of the US-backed Kurdish-majority Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Mazloum Abdi, met President Masoud Barzani, leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) currently ruling Iraq’s Kurdish Autonomous Province. The meeting focussed on “Kurdish political framework and addressing recent developments” and provided “an opportunity to form a unified Kurdish stance.” The meeting followed disagreements between the KDP-affiliated party, the Kurdish National Council in Syria (ENKS), and the SDF-affiliated Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) over how Kurds — who live in both Syria and Iraq — should be represented in negotiations with other political forces active in Syria, especially the HTS. The discussions were organised against the backdrop of the US efforts to ensure cooperation between the SDF-AANES and HTS, with Washington slated to begin formal negotiations for a unified Syrian government in March. The meeting also followed Turkey’s intensified attacks against the SDF in recent times — which Ankara views as an extension of the “terrorist group,” the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) — which impressed the need for a united Kurdish front on both parties. 
 
Syria: HTS leader Jolani ready to welcome UN troops into buffer zone with Israel  
On 16 January, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa alias Muhammad al-Jolani, stated that his government was ready to welcome UN peacekeeping forces into the UN-established buffer zone with Israel. Located on the southern Syria border, the buffer zone has witnessed recent incursions and occupation by Israel. Addressing these incursions, Jolani noted that “Israel’s advance in the region was due to the presence of Iranian militias and Hezbollah.” However, he alleged that Israel no longer had that excuse following HTS’ takeover of Damascus.

Syria: Defence Minister opposes SDF’s demand to exist as separate military bloc
On 19 January, Syria’s Minister of Defence, Murhaf Abu Qasra, opposed the Kurdish-led Syrian Defence Forces’ (SDF) demand to exist as a separate military bloc and accused the armed group of procrastinating on its integration into Syria’s Ministry of Defence. The dispute stemmed from the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham-led transitional government’s efforts to incorporate all of the country’s armed groups into a single unified force under its command. In this regard, Abu Qasra insisted that the SDF “would enter the Defence Ministry within the hierarchy of the Defence Ministry and be distributed in a military way.” However, its demand clashed with that of SDF commander Mazloum Abdi, who wanted to integrate only if his forces were allowed to exist as a separate faction. Abu Qasra flatly rejected the SDF’s proposal commenting that “for them to remain a military bloc within the Defence Ministry, such a bloc within a big institution is not right.” 
 
Israel: IDF launches operation into Jenin
On 21 January, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) launched a “counterterrorism action” in the West Bank’s city of Jenin, called “Operation Iron Wall,” killing 35 people. Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, stated that the operation was launched to “eradicate terrorists.” However, the Palestinian Authority accused Israel of opening “fire on civilians and security forces resulting in injuries to several civilians and a number of security personnel, one of whom is in critical condition.” Jenin Governor Kamal Abu al-Rub dubbed the operation “an invasion of the camp,” noting Israel’s use of Apache helicopters and military vehicles. The attack followed a prolonged operation in the city by the Palestinian Authority’s security forces (which ended early in the year) and coincided with the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, in which several Palestinian prisoners were released into the West Bank. 

South Sudan: Revenge attacks on Sudanese residents
On 17 January, South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir called for calm following attacks on Sudanese-owned homes and businesses which resulted in three deaths and seven injuries. In Juba and Aweil, protests erupted in response to alleged killings of South Sudanese in Sudan’s Wad Madani city by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The police imposed a dusk-to-dawn curfew and rescued 45 Sudanese traders seeking protection. 

Democratic Republic of Congo: M23 rebels seize Minova town
On 21 January, BBC reported that Rwanda-backed M23 rebels seized a key eastern trading town Minova in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). This has brought the rebels 40 kilometres closer to the provincial capital of North Kivu, Goma. Meanwhile, Amnesty International accused M23 rebels and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) army of using explosive weapons over 150 times in populated areas. Amnesty International stated that such actions are war crimes violating humanitarian law. Additionally, on 17 January, Al Jazeera quoted the UNHCR that intensifying violence in the eastern DRC has displaced over 230,000 people since January. UNHCR stated that the North and South Kivu provinces are at the centre of the crisis. The M23 rebel group has seized large areas including Masisi. The spokesperson of the UNHCR Eujin Byun stated that civilians faced indiscriminate bombings, sexual violence, and forced displacement. The agency called for urgent funding and restored access to assist vulnerable populations amid worsening humanitarian conditions.

Europe and The Americas
The EU: France President Macron urges Europe to increase defence investment
On 20 January, France’s President, Emmanuel Macron urged Europe to spend more on defence and reduce dependency on the US after describing the new Trump administration in the US as a “wake up call.” Macron’s statement came as a response to Trump’s recent comments that he would bring an end to the war and that peace could be negotiated in six months. He additionally criticised the cost of the war and its burden on US taxpayers besides referring to his intentions to shift this fiscal burden onto Europe. During his New Year's speech to the military at the Army Digital and Cyber Support Command based in western France, Macron asked: “What will we do in Europe tomorrow if our American ally withdraws its warships from the Mediterranean? If they send their fighter jets from the Atlantic to the Pacific?”

Ukraine: Eight dead in drone attacks
On 18 January, Ukraine and Russian air defence forces exchanged drone attacks. According to Ukraine’s air forces, Russia first launched 39 Shahed drones and four ballistic missiles across Ukraine, targeting Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih cities, resulting in the death of eight and infrastructural damages. Ukraine claimed to have countered with two missiles and 24 drones. Meanwhile, Ukraine targeted Russia’s industrial sites in Kaluga and Tula cities. The Russian Ministry of Defence reported on 46 Ukrainian drones launched, sparking a fire in one of the oil depots. In response to the attacks, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called for more air defence support to intercept similar missile attacks. He said: “Such strikes and such losses would no longer occur if we had received all the necessary air defence systems.”

The UK: Signs 100 years partnership with Ukraine
On 16 January, the UK government signed a 100-year partnership agreement with Ukraine. The agreement contains ten pillars starting from defence, security, maritime, economy, energy, climate, justice, science and culture. The first pillar of defence focuses on establishing industrial bases, mutual defence services, expanding fighter jet coalition and maintaining defence infrastructure. The second pillar of security looks at promoting lasting peace in Ukraine, modernising security architecture, enhancing cyber security and protecting critical infrastructure. The third pillar on maritime aims for the quick restoration of Ukraine's occupied areas, building Royal Navy Mine vessels and improving Ukraine's interoperability in the maritime sector. 

About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Femy Francis, Abhiruchi Chowdary, Sayeka Ghosh and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad. Vaishak Sreekumar, C Shraddha, and Kumari Krishna are postgraduate students at Jindal Global University, Sonipat. Nova Karun is a postgraduate student at Pondicherry University. 

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