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CWA # 1577, 30 January 2025
Conflict Weekly
A Dangerous Offensive in DR Congo by M23

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #266, 30 January 2025, Vol.6, No.5
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Anu Maria Joseph

The Democratic Republic of Congo: M23’s offensive and the fall of Goma
Anu Maria Joseph
 
In the news
On 27 January, M23 rebels captured Goma, the largest city in eastern DRC. The advance came after the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called on the Rwandan forces supporting the M23 rebels in the eastern DRC to withdraw on 26 January. The DRC government declared it as a "declaration of war" by Rwanda. According to Al Jazeera, the fighting has killed more than 100 people including SADC peacekeepers.

On the same day, UNHCR reported that 400,000 people have been displaced during the past three weeks in eastern DRC, adding to the four million already displaced.

On 30 January, Corneille Nangaa, the leader of the rebel alliance including the M23 said that they would continue the offensive to Kinshasa and topple President Felix Tshisekedi.

On the same day, DRC's President Felix Tshisekedi vowed a "vigorous" response to M23. He said: "Vigorous and coordinated response against these terrorists and their sponsors is underway."

On 28 January, Al Jazeera reported on protests in the capital Kinshasa against international inaction in Goma. The protesters attacked the embassies of Rwanda, France, Belgium, the US, Uganda and Kenya.

Issues at large
First, a profile on M23. M23 or March 23, an ethnic Tutsi-led group in eastern DRC, was formed in 2012. It is a breakaway group from the National Congress for the Defence of People (NCDP), a rebel group that fought for the rights of minority Tutsis in eastern DRC after the Congo wars. NCDP was formed against the Hutus who fled Rwanda to eastern DRC over the fear of persecution for carrying out the Rwandan genocide in 1994. The Hutus who fled Rwanda after the genocide formed the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR) in eastern DRC. Since then, Rwanda has accused DRC of supporting FDLR against the minority Tutsis in eastern DRC. For Rwanda and Paul Kagame’s Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), support for M23 is associated with its minority Tutsi kin and animosity against Hutus in the eastern DRC. Although NCDP agreed to integrate into the DRC forces after the agreement on 23 March 2009, M23 broke away from the group and launched a major offensive in 2012 saying that the promise was broken. The group was named after the date the 2009 peace agreement was signed. Then, the offensive was thwarted by the UN and DRC forces. In 2021, the group reemerged and has been continuing its violent campaign in the region with support from the Rwandan forces.

Second, the decades-long crises in eastern DRC. The crisis began after the Rwandan genocide in 1994 and the two Congo wars that followed. Upon fear of another holocaust similar to that of genocide in Rwanda, several ethnic and inter-ethnic groups in the region formed armed groups as a defence against each other. According to the UN, there are more than 120 ethnic armed groups in eastern DRC. Besides, the DRC government always left the governance in the region to ethnic chiefdoms, and the grievances of these peripheries were never met. The governance problem in the region exacerbated the ethnic tensions in the region. Currently, the crises are over ethnic dominance, access to resources, territory and power. Additionally, these armed groups have been supported by DRC, Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi at various points, acting as proxies for each country’s interests in the region.

Third, ineffective regional and international efforts. All peace initiatives have repeatedly failed in the region. In 2021, DRC and M23 agreed to a ceasefire mediated by Kenya. However, it failed within months when M23 resumed its campaign. In 2022, then Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta brought the warring parties together for a mediation; however, it too failed. The latest escalation comes after a failed mediation by Angola in December 2024. Angola put forward the "Luanda Roadmap,” supported by the SADC, the AU, the US and the EU. However, it failed after DRC President Tshisekedi disagreed to hold talks with the rebel group directly. Rwanda and DRC are seeking peace under terms that would give them access to critical minerals towns in the region. 

Fourth, the fall of Goma and its importance. Since the re-emergence, M23 made several attempts to capture Goma. Recently, the conflict escalated in the region after the rebels captured Masisi town on 5 January which brought them closer to Goma. Goma is the capital of the North Kivu province, bordering Rwanda and sharing the shores of Lake Kivu. It is an important trading point that has access to all mining towns supplying minerals including gold, tin, coltan and lithium. Control of Goma means control of the region and the trade network. Goma which is home to many ethnic groups including Tutsis, Hutus, Kano, Nande and Nyanga has frequently witnessed clashes over mineral areas which several armed groups use to fund their activities.
 
In perspective
M23's capture of Goma was long anticipated. The groups had previously come closer to capturing the town several times. Now that Goma is with M23, many other armed groups are likely to support M23 to access the trade advantages and M23’s hold. The end of MINUSMA, the withdrawal of East African Community (EAC) forces and failed efforts by SADC forces gave them an advantage to advance into Goma. Its strategic advantages of access to mining towns are going to strengthen M23 and the rebel alliance in the region. It would further increase insecurity issues not only in North Kivu but also in the neighbouring provinces of Ituri and South Kivu, which are already challenged by rebel insurgency. 

Eastern DRC has emerged as a major conflict hotspot where armed groups, local militias and external actors vie for territorial advantages solely for access to minerals. And, the people have been left to suffer its consequences. The Norwegian Refugee Council says DRC is one of the worst humanitarian crises of the 21st century and one of the largest displacement crises with the UN recording 7.2 million. The new developments have increased fear among the people of Goma and the neighbouring towns, further worsening the humanitarian crisis.

Besides raising concerns, several international actors have refrained from involving directly in the issue. For many international actors including France, Belgium, Germany the US and the UK, the conflicts have become a major challenge in accessing the mining towns. Beyond a resolution, their priority has always been the region's mineral deposits. For instance, the US and the UK have been trying to establish a new trade route through the Lobito Corridor to access the minerals in the region. 

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Padmashree Anandha, Femy Francis, Ayan Datta, Sayeka Ghosh, Nuha Aamina, Nova Krun, Vaishak Sreekumar, C Shraddha, and Kumari Krishna

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Coast Guard questions the Philippines' resupply to BRP Sierra Madre
On 24 January, the Chinese Coast Guard claimed that a civilian vessel of the Philippines delivered a resupply to its warship at the Second Thomas Shoal which is “illegally grounded” in the disputed South China Sea. The Coast Guard “monitored” the mission and “questioned” the vessel claiming that it is committed to law enforcement in the Spratly Islands. The Philippines Department of Foreign Affairs stated that personnel were rotated and supplies were delivered to the BRP Sierra Madre. 

North Korea: Kim Jong-un inspects nuclear-material production base and the Nuclear Weapons Institute
On 29 January, The Korea Herald reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un oversaw a nuclear-material production base and the Nuclear Weapons Institute. He emphasized that strengthening the country’s nuclear shield is “indispensable” while facing “the most vicious hostile countries.” He reviewed core processes for producing weapons-grade nuclear materials and called for an “over fulfillment” of production plans. He warned that North Korea’s security challenges are intensifying. He added that nuclear stockpiling is a necessity to “guarantee peace and security by dint of strength.”

North Korea: Conducts cruise missile test 
On 26 January, North Korea confirmed testing sea-to-surface strategic cruise missiles on 25 January. The missiles were launched under Kim Jong-un’s supervision and flew 1,500 kilometers to hit the targets. Kim stated that North Korea’s “war deterrence means” are being perfected to ensure “lasting peace and stability.” Furthermore, South Korea detected the launch and announced its readiness to counter threats. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff stated: “The details are being closely analyzed by the intelligence authorities of South Korea and the United States. Under the ironclad South Korea-US joint defense posture, our military continues to monitor the North's various activities and is maintaining a posture and capacity to counter any provocations in an overwhelming manner, so that the North won't make any wrong judgments."

South Asia 
Nepal: Social media bill under criticism
On 30 January, the Kathmandu Post reported that the Social Media Bill 2081 has come under criticism after Prime Minister KP Oli Sharma tabled it in the parliament. The Federation of Nepali Journalists expressed discontent over its implications on the freedom of expression. The bill calls for social media platforms to pay NPR ten million in fines if not comply with the government’s conditions. Additionally, a user will be liable to pay a fine of up to NPR five million for spreading misleading information. The executive director of the Freedom Forum Nepal, Taranath Dahal, called for the bill to be amended. In an X post, he said: “Several of the provisions could be misused to discourage critical voices which can instill fear among those speaking against corruption and irregularities.” 

India: Canadian Commission report suggests no link to Nijjar’s assassination
On 28 January, the Canadian Commission’s report suggested that there was “no definitive link” between the assassination of Canadian Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar and a foreign country. Nijjar was shot dead in June 2023 in British Columbia. The report titled "Public Inquiry into Foreign Interference in Federal Electoral Processes and Democratic Institutions” contradicted Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s accusations of India’s involvement in the assassination. Trudeau claimed that he had evidence against India’s agents. Commissioner in Charge of the Public Inquiry Into Foreign Interference in Federal Electoral Processes and Democratic Institutions Marie Josee Hogue said: "Disinformation is used as a retaliatory tactic to punish decisions that run contrary to a state's interests,” in the report. 

India: Two Maoists killed in Jharkhand district
On 29 January, the Indian police announced that two Maoists were killed in a gunbattle with the security personnel in West Singhbum district, Jharkhand. The incident took place in the forest area registered under the Sonua police station. Two INSAS rifles were recovered from the scene. 

India: Protests Sri Lankan Navy’s firing on fishermen  
On 28 January, India protested the Sri Lankan Navy’s firing on Indian fishermen. The Sri Lankan Navy shot Indian fishermen while trying to arrest them on charges of illegal fishing. India summoned Sri Lanka’s Acting High Commissioner. Sri Lanka argued that the fishermen were aggressive. More than 60 Indian fishermen have been arrested since January 2025 for illegal fishing. During the visit of Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake to India in December 2024 two sides had agreed to avoid aggression and work toward a reconciliation through dialogue.

Pakistan: Expresses concern over US weapons with terrorists in Afghanistan
On 29 January, Pakistan reiterated its “profound concern” over advanced US weapons left in Afghanistan being used by militants including Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Pakistan’s Foreign Office urged Kabul’s authorities to prevent these weapons from falling into terrorist hands. The US claimed that no usable military equipment was abandoned in Afghanistan. Pakistan has seen a surge in terror attacks since the TTP ended its ceasefire in 2022. Additionally, US weapons were reportedly used in the November 2023 PAF Mianwali base attack. 

Pakistan: Security forces kill eight terrorists in Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
On 28 January, Pakistani security forces killed eight terrorists and injured nine others in Bannu district’s Janikhel town. An intelligence-based operation in Janikhel killed three terrorists. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) stated that the operation was launched based on the reports of the presence of ‘khwarij’ in the area. Meanwhile, two soldiers were killed in Qila Abdullah during an exchange of fire when militants attempted to storm a Frontier Corps post. Additionally, an FC post in Bannu’s Baran Dam area was attacked which left one soldier killed and five injured. In Turbat, a Levies official was shot dead which the police suspected to be a targeted attack.

The Middle East and Africa
Syria: Central Bank orders freeze of Assad-linked bank accounts 
On 23 January, Syria’s central bank issued a circular ordering all commercial banks to “freeze all bank accounts of companies and individuals linked to the defunct (Assad) regime” and sought the details of all frozen accounts within three working days. The move aimed to target businessmen linked with former President Bashar al-Assad’s government, who helped the regime survive the prolonged Syrian Civil War (2011-ongoing). The circular specifically named the Katerji Group, which gained prominence for its involvement in Syria’s oil trade under former President Bashar al-Assad. Notably, one of the group’s owners, Baraa Katerji, was killed in an airstrike in July — allegedly conducted by Israel. However, one banker speaking on condition of anonymity said that the circular would be difficult to implement because many Assad-linked businessmen used accounts named after other people or relied on front companies to park their money. 

Israel: UN ambassador says UNRWA must leave Jerusalem by 30 January
On 24 January, Israel’s Ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, wrote to the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres that the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine (UNRWA) was “required to cease its operations in Jerusalem and evacuate all premises in which it operates in the city no later than 30 January 2025.” Danon’s statement reaffirmed the timeline set out by Israel’s Knesset in its October 2024 law. The Israeli ambassador’s statement aligned with the Israeli government’s claim that the aid agency employed Hamas members involved in the 7 October 2023 attack on Israel. 

Israel: US intelligence says Hamas recruited 10,000 to 15,000 fighters during Gaza war
On 24 January, two anonymous sources in the US Congress revealed that Hamas recruited between 10,000 and 15,000 new members since the start of its war against Israel in October 2023. The disclosure indicated that the armed group was far from destroyed and remained a persistent threat to Israel. However, the sources, who had been briefed by US intelligence agencies, added that many of the recruits were young and untrained and were deployed for security purposes. The anonymous disclosures aligned with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s earlier remark that Hamas recruited almost as many fighters as it had lost during the war. Blinken had then said: “Each time Israel completes its military operations and pulls back, Hamas militants regroup and reemerge because there’s nothing else to fill the void.” 

Israel: Netanyahu states Israel would not fully withdraw from Lebanon border 
On 24 January, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel would not fully withdraw from southern Lebanon at the end of its 60-day deadline, which ends on 26 January. Netanyahu’s office asserted that “the IDF’s withdrawal process is conditional.” Justifying the decision, Netanyahu claimed that since Lebanon’s government “has not yet fully enforced” its obligations under the ceasefire, “the phased withdrawal process will continue, in full coordination with the” US. Additionally, he claimed that the agreement was made based on an “understanding that the withdrawal process may” exceed 60 days despite the deal’s text explicitly stating that the withdrawal should extend beyond the deadline. On the same day, the Trump administration called for a “short, temporary extension” to the 60-day deadline, backing Israel’s position.

Syria: HTS-affiliated fighters executed 35 people in three days, reports SOHR
On 26 January, the think tank Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that armed groups affiliated with the country’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) government undertook summary executions of over 35 individuals during the last 72 hours. Most of those executed were officers from the government of former President Bashar al-Assad who had surrendered in centres established by the new authorities. The Observatory noted that these HTS-controlled armed groups “carried out reprisals and settled old scores with members of the Alawite minority to which Bashar Assad belongs, taking advantage of the state of chaos, the proliferations of arms and their ties to the new authorities.” Additionally, the think tank noted an “unprecedented level of cruelty and violence” under HTS rule, with “arbitrary arrests… attacks against religious symbols, mutilations of corpses, summary and brutal executions targeting civilians” being commonplace. 

Israel: Airstrike in Jenin amid ongoing military operations 
On 29 January, Israel’s Minister of Defence, Israel Katz, stated that Israeli troops would remain in Jenin after completing their ongoing eight-day-long military operations in the West Bank city. Although a continued troop presence marks a departure from decades-long Israel Defence Forces (IDF) policy, with Israel not stationing troops in the enclave since the Second Intifada (2000-2005), Katz justified the decision, insisting that Israeli forces “will remain in the camp to ensure that terrorism does not return.” As of 24 January, 12 Palestinians had been killed in the operation, with 20 others being arrested by Israeli authorities.

Syria: HTS signals preparedness to redeploy troops in Golan Heights if Israel withdraws
On 29 January, officials from Syria’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) government met UN Under-Secretary-General for Peace Operations, Jean Pierre Lacroix, and confirmed that it was ready to redeploy Syrian forces to the Golan Heights buffer zone “provided Israeli forces withdraw immediately.” The Israel Defence Forces (IDF) occupied the buffer zone, which is supposed to be demilitarised following a 1974 peace agreement between Israel and Syria, on 8 December 2023. Despite Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu justifying the decision because of a “(security) vacuum on Israel’s border” following former President Bashar al-Assad’s overthrow at the hands of the HTS, the UN considers the takeover a violation of the 1974 agreement.

Sudan: SAF battles RSF near al-Jili oil refinery
On 24 January, Africanews reported that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) carried an offensive to reclaim territory causing clashes with the RSF near Sudan’s al-Jili oil refinery in the capital Khartoum. The fighting also intensified in el-Fasher after the RSF’s 48-hour ultimatum demanding the army’s withdrawal. The military launched airstrikes following the ultimatum lapse and targeted RSF positions which escalated tensions in the region. 

Nigeria: 20 soldiers killed in suspected ISWAP attack
On 26 January, Al Jazeera reported that at least 20 Nigerian soldiers, including a commanding officer, were killed in a suspected attack by the ISIL affiliate in West Africa Province (ISWAP). The attack occurred in northeastern Nigeria’s Malam-Fatori town, which serves as a gateway to the country’s border with neighboring Mali. According to a Nigerian soldier who spoke on the condition of anonymity, the armed group took the patrolling troops by surprise. He said: “We tried so much to repel the attacks, and after more than three hours of gun duel, they overpowered us, killing our commanding officer, a lieutenant colonel.”

Europe and The Americas
Serbia: Protest against corruption and construction fault after roof collapse in a train station
On 24 January, thousands carried out anti-government protests in Serbia. Protests were held in the southern city of Niš, and smaller towns, including Jagodina. These protests were triggered by a roof collapse at the Novi Sad train station in northern Serbia, which killed 15 people in November. The protestors accused the government of corruption and demanded faster and more transparent justice for the victims of the incident. The station underwent two refurbishments in the past few years and was part of a larger infrastructure project by state-owned Chinese companies. Prosecutors have charged 13 people, including former Minister of Infrastructure Goran Vesic, with the charges yet to be confirmed by a federal court. President Vučić and his supporters accused the protesters of being under foreign influence, attributing to an attempt to topple the government. 

The UK: Storm Eowyn causes severe damages
On 24 January, Storm Eowyn hit Ireland and Northern Ireland leading to devastating winds with a wind exceeding 180 kilometers per hour. One person was reported dead by the police. The extreme weather forced a halt to public transport, schools, and roads. Several flights were canceled at airports in Dublin, Belfast, Edinburgh, and Glasgow. There was "unprecedented" damage to infrastructure with over 700,000 homes and businesses in Ireland and close to 100,000 in Northern Ireland left without power. Wind gusts of up to 183 kilometers per hour were recorded near Galway on Ireland's west coast by Ireland's national meteorological office, Met Éireann. Met Éireann issued a red warning in the UK stating "danger to life" and warned of "extremely dangerous traveling conditions" with flooding. 

Slovakia: Fourth anti-government protests 
On 23 January, thousands of Slovaks demonstrated in the fourth anti-government protest against Prime Minister Robert Fico. They accused him of growing close relations with Russia, which were stirred by Fico's recent trip to Moscow and meeting Russia's President Vladimir Putin. During the rally, Marián Kulich, managing director of the Peace for Ukraine organization said: "Slovakia belongs to Europe. We want to be in Europe as for values. We are not rising to Russia, nor do we want to have any co-operation with Russia. This is our stand and we have to put it across politely and responsibly." Fico's earlier remarks on Slovakia considering the EU and NATO alignment fuelled tensions. These scenarios combined with his Russia-friendly stance spread public outrage. The protests took place across 28 districts. In a speech at the parliament, Fico accused the opposition and protest organisers of working with foreign actors to collapse the government.

About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Anu Maria Joseph and Padmashree Anandhan are Project Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Abhiruchi Chowdary, Sayeka Ghosh and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad. Vaishak Sreekumar, C Shraddha, and Kumari Krishna are postgraduate students at Jindal Global University, Sonipat. Nova Karun is a postgraduate student at Pondicherry University. 

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