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CWA # 1590, 13 February 2025
Conflict Weekly
Gaza’s fragile ceasefire, Violence in Bangladesh, and DR Congo's M23 problem

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #267&268, 13 February 2025, Vol.6, Nos.6 & 7
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Vaishak Sreekumar, Emma Rose Boby and C Shraddha 

Israel: The Gaza ceasefire and the threat
Vaishak Sreekumar
 
In the news
On 10 February, Hamas’ Al-Qassam Brigades spokesperson, Abu Obeida, accused Israel of systematically violating the ceasefire agreement and announced the delay in releasing hostages.

On 11 February, US President Donald Trump warned Hamas to release the agreed hostages by 15 February or would cancel the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and "let hell break out." He reiterated the threat of "owning" the Gaza Strip and redeveloping it by displacing the 2.2 million Palestinians in the enclave to neighbouring countries.

On 11 February, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the ceasefire will end and Israel will resume "intense fighting" in Gaza if Hamas doesn't release "our hostages" by 15 February.

On 12 February, King Abdullah of Jordan, on accepting Palestinians from Gaza, said that he would do what's "best" for Jordan. Later, he reaffirmed Jordan's stance against the displacement of Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank.

On 13 February, Hamas stated that it would release Israeli hostages as planned and would continue to implement the Gaza ceasefire deal, indicating that three more Israeli hostages would be freed on 15 February.

Issues at large
First, the ceasefire deal and its progress so far. The ceasefire began on 19 January in a three-phase plan. The first phase of 45 days is supposed to see the release of 33 hostages by Hamas and 1900 prisoners by Israel. Hamas has so far released 21 hostages—16 Israelis and five Thai nationals and Israel has released 656 Palestinian prisoners from a list of nearly 2,000. The negotiations for the second phase are to see 17 more hostages released by Hamas and a complete military withdrawal by Israel, which is yet to begin. Meanwhile, the exchange process was disrupted after Hamas accused Israel of violating the agreement. Hamas announced the postponement of the scheduled hostage release on 15 February "until further notice," raising concerns about the continuation of the negotiated exchanges.

Second, Hamas’ complaints. Hamas accuses Israel of violating the ceasefire deal by targeting Palestinians with gunfire in various parts of Gaza and delaying the return of displaced people to the heavily bombarded north. The militant group accuses Israel of delaying the entry of essential medicines and hospital supplies, and not allowing tents, prefabricated houses, fuel, or rubble-removing machines into Gaza. The Gaza Ministry of Health said that 92 people were killed in Israeli military operations since the ceasefire came into effect.

Third, Israel’s complaints. Israel’s Minister of Defence Israel Katz condemned Hamas' postponement of the hostage release as a complete violation of the ceasefire agreement. The Israeli agency responsible for aid to Gaza, COGAT, rejected Hamas' claims of ceasefire violations, stating that significant aid, including tents, fuel, and generators has been delivered since the deal began. Moreover, concerns over the condition of the hostages continue, with Israeli officials expressing shock at the frail appearance of those released and fear that the remaining hostages may be in even worse condition.

Fourth, Trump's intervention and threats. The US President has urged Israel to cancel the ceasefire and hostage deal if Hamas does not release all remaining captives in Gaza by 15 February. Trump criticised the phased nature of the hostage releases, insisting that all captives must be freed at once rather than "in drips and drabs." Additionally, Trump has revived his controversial proposal for the US to take control of Gaza after the conflict ends, stating that Palestinians would not have the right to return under his plan. His remarks have drawn widespread criticism, with the UN and human rights groups condemning what they see as a form of ethnic cleansing. 

Fifth, the response from the Arab countries. Egypt and Qatar are intensifying diplomatic efforts to save the Gaza ceasefire agreement. In Saudi Arabia, public figures have criticized Trump's plan, with Prince Turki Al Faisal calling it a "mad ethnic cleansing plan." In Jordan, the proposal has unified public opinion against it, sparking mass protests.
 
In perspective
First, a fragile ceasefire. The contestations between Israel and Hamas come at an unfortunate moment as the second phase of the ceasefire is about to be negotiated. Although Hamas has returned to the proposed structure, their hesitation and attempt to withdraw will bring new tensions to the negotiations. 

Second, the dangers of Trump's plan. International organizations, European countries, and neighbouring Arab countries have opposed the plan, claiming that it is directly in violation of international law. Although such a proposal seems radical, the history of this region has been defined by the occupation and displacement by foreign powers, from the Sykes-Picot agreement to the UN partition of 1947. 

Bangladesh: Another round of violence 
Emma Rose Boby
 
In the news
On 5 February, Jamaat-E-Islami supporters and other protestors called for the demolition of 32 Dhanmondi, the residence of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman and ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. 

On 6 February, Sheikh Hasina stated: “A game of destruction has started around Bangladesh which is going through a phase of chaos and upheaval. Bangladesh which was a role model of development across the world has become the land of terrorists and fighters.” She added that the head of the interim government, Chief Advisor Prof Mohammed Yunus made plans to kill her and her sister. She called on the student wing of the Awami League to unite and fight for justice.

On the same day, protestors targeted the houses of Awami League leaders and Sheikh Hasina’s late husband and her family members. They set fire to, vandalized and demolished the houses and defaced murals of Sheikh Mujibur Rehman across the country. Over 274 people have already been arrested in connection to the attacks.

On 8 February, the interim government led by Chief Advisor Prof Mohammed Yunus called for “Operation Devil Hunt” which will “target those who are desperate to destabilise the country . . . it will continue until all devils are rooted out,” according to Home Affairs Adviser Lt Gen (Retd) Jahangir Alam Chowdhury. 

On 12 February, the OHCHR released a report blaming Sheik Hasina and the Awami League for multiple human rights violations, hundreds of extrajudicial killings and more, stating that the extent could amount to “crimes against humanity.” The interim government welcomed the report.

Issues at large
First, recurring violence. The latest round of violence was against Sheikh Hasina’s speech and the government’s inaction on the violence during Hasina’s rule. Following Sheikh Hasina’s exile, multiple reports of violence with cars being looted, acts of arson and vandalism were reported. The recent OHCHR report condemned Sheikh Hasina for the kidnappings, torture and killings of protestors and dissenters of the Awami League. Besides, there were several reports of communal violence against minority communities. The Bangladesh Hindu Buddhist Christian Unity Council reported over 2010 cases of violence. 

Second, the interim government’s response and its effectiveness. In response to the violence on 5 February, the interim government has launched ‘Operation Devil Hunt.’. OHCHR made the report on violence upon the request of the interim government. Following the formation of the interim government, its Chief Advisor announced plans to reform with institutional changes, increased transparency and accountability and strike down the 1972 Constitution. Some of their issues included the budget for the upcoming fiscal year, the corruption in the banking sector, the fall of forex reserves and rice imports in Bangladesh hitting new highs. 
 
In perspective
The potential for further political instability and violence is high. With the government’s inaction regarding the communal violence political stability remains a question, even with the launch of Operation Devil Hunt.

The UN’s report after the speech and statements made by Sheikh Hasina which followed the demolition of 32 Dhanmondi looks like a blame game to glorify the interim government, particularly Mohammed Yunus. Meanwhile, with economic regulation happening slowly but steadily, political regulation seems to be the next thing that the interim government needs to focus. 

DR Congo: Continuing violence and regional tensions 
C Shraddha
 
In the news
On 12 February, M23 rebels shut down displacement camps in the city of Goma. The rebels issued a 72-hour ultimatum for displaced people to return to their villages, pushing more than 110,000 people to flee. 

On the same day, M23 spokesperson, Lawrence Kanyuka, stated: "The situation in Bukavu is deteriorating dangerously. Our compatriots are continually being killed and pillaged".  He added: "If these crimes persist, we will take our responsibilities to eradicate the threat at its source and protect our people.”

On 11 February, M23 resumed their attack on the armed forces in South Kivu after a two-day pause in fighting. According to security sources, clashes occurred near the Ihusi village, 70 kilometres from the provincial capital of Bukavu and 40 kilometres from the province's airport. 

On the same day, Al Jazeera reported accounts from residents of displacement camps in Goma, who alleged that an M23 colonel had instructed them to leave within three days. The group refuted these claims, stating that people voluntarily left the Bulengo camp. 

Issues at large
First, escalation since the fall of Goma. After the M23 forces captured Goma, the Congo River Alliance, which includes M23, leader, Corneille Nangaa, stated that the troops "will continue the march of liberation all the way to Kinshasa". Although the Congo River Alliance (AFC) announced a unilateral ceasefire on 4 February citing humanitarian reasons, violated it by capturing the mining town of Nyabibwe along Lake Kivu. 

Second, M23's South Kivu interests. On 11 February, violence erupted in the province of South Kivu, three days after leaders of neighbouring countries called for a ceasefire. Controlling Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu, would give the rebels full access to Lake Kivu, which borders Rwanda and the region's valuable minerals including gold and oil. 

Third, insufficient regional responses. In response to the escalating crisis, the eight countries of the East African Community (EAC) and the 16-member South African Development Community organised a summit in Tanzania. It additionally called for the opening of humanitarian corridors to evacuate the dead and injured. Rwandan President Paul Kagame and DR Congo’s President Felix Tshisekedi were present at the summit. Although the summit addressed the crisis and directed army chiefs to provide an “immediate and unconditional ceasefire” within the next five days, no definitive actions were taken to address the violence. 

Fourth, regional concerns. Burundi’s president Évariste Ndayishimiye has expressed concerns over the escalation of the crisis into a regional war. He stated, "It is not only Burundi, it is Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya — it is the whole region, it is a threat.” The death of 14 South African peacekeepers has led to President Cyril Ramaphosa blaming the Rwanda forces, leading to an onslaught of exchange of threats between the two countries, indicating the possibility of a future altercation. 

Fifth, limited international response. The UN has called for efforts to put an end to the violence and prevent the conflict from spreading across the region. During an emergency meeting of the OHCHR, the High Commissioner, Volker Turk, stated that the "worst may be yet to come,” indicating a possible increase in sexual violence. However, the efforts were limited to calls for ceasefire efforts without any direct measures. The US response to the conflict has worsened civilian suffering in Congo, which was the largest recipient of US humanitarian assistance until 2024, receiving over 70 per cent of aid. According to a UN official, the US withdrawal from the UNHCR and the Trump administration's aid freeze have "severely impacted" humanitarian aid in DR Congo.
 
In perspective
M23’s advance in South Kivu implies that the group is not going to cease violence soon. There is an increasing possibility that the rebels will continue to advance towards Bukavu and the strategic town of Kavumu, which is currently under the control of the Congolese Army. While the rebel forces continue to seize areas, the government has been preoccupied with internal matters. The government has struggled to manage escalating protests, with citizens vandalising embassies and burning the flags of the US and Belgium while accusing them of hypocrisy.

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Padmashree Anandha, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Ayan Datta, Nuha Aamina, Abhiruchi Chowdhury and C Shraddha

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Foreign Ministry criticizes US interference in Panama as a “Cold War mentality”
On 7 February, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs described the US’s calls on Panama as a “Cold War mentality.” This comes after Panama quit the Belt and Road Initiative. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Lin Jian said that China “firmly opposes the United States using pressure and coercion to smear and undermine Belt and Road cooperation,” and that “the US side’s attacks … once again expose its hegemonic nature.” Lin expressed that the US is deliberately slowing down China's development in Latin America and interfering in their internal affairs. Panama’s President Jose Raul Mulino formally quit BRI on 6 February, days after the visit by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. On 2 February, Rubio warned Mulino against China’s influence in Panama and that the US would take whatever “necessary measures” against it.

China: PLA conducts airspace patrol over South China Sea during Manila-US drills 
On 3 February, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducted airspace patrols over the contested Scarborough Shoal. It coincided with the Philippines Air Force exercise with the US in the South China Sea. PLA’s Senior Colonel Li Jianjian said: “During this period, the Philippines colluded with extraterritorial countries to organize a so-called joint patrol, deliberately undermining peace and stability in the South China Sea region.” Li noted that China’s Theater Air Force command is on high alert as they safeguard national sovereignty and territory to disrupt any activities hindering peace and stability in the South China Sea. Commander of the Philippine Western Mindanao Command, Lieutenant General Antonio Nafarrete responded: It “is not consistent with the principles of innocent passage, which require continuous and expeditious transit without lingering in archipelagic waters longer than necessary.”

Taiwan: Bans government employees from using DeepSeek
On 2 February, Taipei Times reported that Taiwan’s Ministry of Digital Affairs (MODA) prohibited public sector workers from using DeepSeek. MODA notified that government agencies or critical infrastructure will not use DeepSeek as it will “endanger national information security.” MODA said: “Its operation involves cross-border transmission, information leakage, and other information security concerns.” The ban includes employees of central or local government, public schools, SOEs, semi-government organisations, and those working with critical technology and infrastructure. MODA cited the legislative regulation Principles on Restricting the Use of Products That Endanger National Cyber Security of 2019, to protect national security. 

South Korea: Ministries, firms, and banks ban the use of DeepSeek over security concerns
On 6 February, South Korea’s Ministry of Interior and Safety urged central government bodies and 17 provincial governments not to download or use DeepSeek. South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Trade and Defence noted: “We are reviewing measures to ban access due to concerns over technology leaks.” South Korea’s National Tax Service banned access to Open AIs in 2023. It noted: “We considered the data security issues to be greater than the practical benefits of using generative AI to improve administrative service.” Firms like Samsung, SK Group, and LG have banned the use of generative AI services.

South Asia 
India: Supreme Court questions keeping illegal Bangladeshis in camps
On 3 February, the Supreme Court questioned the government for keeping illegal Bangladesh immigrants in detention camps for an indefinite period. While hearing a suo moto case, the court added that if an illegal immigrant from Bangladesh has been arrested under the Foreigners Act 1946, they should be deported back to their country after the sentence period. The bench noted that 850 illegal immigrants are currently detained in camps and sought accurate figures for the same. The court bench commented: “Almost 12 years have passed by but till this date there is no further progress.” The court further highlighted that the government is not adhering to its guidelines to deport illegal Bangladeshis within 30 days.

Nepal: Wildfires in Timang forest
On 11 February, The Kathmandu Post reported on a wildfire affecting the Timang forests in Ward 1 of Chame Rural Municipality, Manang since the beginning of February. The fires have been uncontrollable despite efforts by the Nepalese police, army, forest officials, locals, the Annapurna Conservation Area Project and the Armed Police Force. These fires have spread over the region at a 3,000 meter altitude due to the lack of snowfall or rain. The issue is further worsened by strong winds. Deputy Superintendent of Police in Manang Naresh Kumar Singh said that the fires may further spread to the forest above Chame via the Syarkyu area although there is no threat to human settlements.

Pakistan: Four soldiers and thirteen terrorists killed in two encounters in North Waziristan
On 30 January, four security personnel and thirteen terrorists were killed in two separate encounters in North Waziristan. Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) reported that an intelligence-based operation in Mir Ali killed six terrorists. In another ambush on a convoy, two more soldiers and seven terrorists were killed. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said: “We will not let the great sacrifices of the sons of the nation go in vain and will destroy the nefarious intentions of anti-state elements.”

Pakistan: Militant attack on police post kills three officials in Karak, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
On 5 February, militants launched an assault on a police post in Karak, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The militants were armed with light and heavy weapons. An intelligence-based operation was launched in North Waziristan, bordering Afghanistan. The operation killed 12 militants and one security officer. Security forces confiscated weapons and ammunition possessed by the militants. Inspector General of Police Zulfiqar Hameed responded: “KP police will uproot the menace of terrorism. The terrorists want to cause harm to the people, but the people and KP are united.” Minister of Interior Mohsin Naqvi condemned the assault. 
 
Pakistan: Security forces launch intelligence-based operation in North Waziristan, neutralize three terrorists
On 7 February, security forces launched an intelligence-based operation in North Waziristan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and killed three burqa-clad terrorists. Security forces confiscated weapons and ammunition from the terrorists. Separately, police successfully thwarted a militant assault on a check post in Bannu on 6 February. As per the police, militants owned light and heavy weapons and tried to take control of the checkpost. In Lakki Marwat, proscribed Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorists attacked a Frontier Corps soldier. 

Pakistan: 48 bunkers destroyed in Kurram, families affected by violence receive compensation of PKR 37 million
On 7 February, an additional ten bunkers were destroyed in Kurram. Until now, 48 bunkers have been destroyed in the region. As per the peace accord, the concerned authorities continued the destruction of bunkers in Kurram. Separately, a total of 37 families who lost members in the violence in Kurram which began on 21 November 2024 were provided with compensation worth PKR 37 million. A member of KP’s provincial assembly Ali Haidi Irfani stated that “overseas Pakistanis and students” were still stuck in the region and demanded that the government put an end to the road blockade.

Pakistan: Section 144 imposed in Punjab, Islamabad, and Balochistan and PTI rally in Swabi
On 8 February, Section 144 of the Code of Criminal Procedure of Pakistan was imposed across Punjab, Islamabad, and Balochistan. This legal provision authorizes district personnel to prohibit any public gathering for more than a limited period. A notification from Radio Pakistan said: “Rallies and sit-ins have been prohibited for maintenance of law and order and protection of lives and properties of the people.” However, it did not highlight the duration of the law in force. On the same day, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) rallied in Swabi, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to observe “black day,” marking one year of the previous year’s elections. 

Pakistan: Three Afghanistan terrorists killed in North Waziristan
On 10 February, security forces launched an operation to eliminate militants in North Waziristan. According to Dawn, it killed four out of ten militants in Tappi village. Three of them were Afghanistan nationals. Separately, a joint operation by police and security forces was launched in Karak, killing five terrorists. According to the police, the militants belonged to the proscribed Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and confirmed that the militants were indulged in incidents of “bank robberies, attack on polio teams and police and FC installation.” 

The Middle East and Africa
Syria: HTS forces enter northeast Lebanon amid clashes with Hezbollah
On 6 February, Syria’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-affiliated army invaded the town of Hawik in northeastern Lebanon and clashed with Hezbollah fighters. The Syrian army’s move was a counterattack against Hezbollah’s attempted offensive into eastern Syria’s Al Qusayr town, which the Syrian army repelled the Lebanese group. Although conclusive reports of casualties could not be found, social media footage indicated that both Hezbollah and the Syrian Army had taken prisoners from each other’s ranks. The Jerusalem Post described Syria’s anti-Hezbollah campaign as part of its recent efforts to seal the country’s porous borders with Lebanon, which Hezbollah often used to smuggle weapons, narcotics and other items necessary to fund and supply its operations. The HTS’ willingness to fight Hezbollah directly also marked a major departure from the policies of former President Bashar al-Assad, which utilised Hezbollah as a major ally. 

Lebanon: US’ Middle East envoy warns Aoun against including Hezbollah in government
On 7 February, US Deputy Special Envoy for the Middle East, Morgan Ortagus, met Lebanon’s newly-elected President, Joseph Aoun. Ortagus warned Aoun that Washington — which backs the Lebanese President — would not tolerate Hezbollah’s presence in Lebanon’s new government. After meeting Aoun, the US envoy stated: “We have set clear red lines in the United States that (Hezbollah) won’t be able to terrorize the Lebanese people, and that includes by being a part of the government.” However, Aoun later distanced himself from the US envoy’s remarks, claiming that they represented Oragus’ “own point of view and is not the concern of the presidency.” Furthermore, Ortagus called for Lebanon’s incoming government to tackle corruption, end Hezbollah’s political influence, and undertake larger countrywide reforms. Although Lebanon’s cabinet is chosen primarily by the Prime Minister, the President, who plays a consultative role in the process, also has some influence over appointments. 

Israel: Katz reprimands Military Intelligence Head over Trump plan
On 7 February, Israel’s Minister of Defence, Israel Katz, ordered the Israel Defence Forces Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi, to reprimand the Head of the IDF Military Intelligence Directorate, Major General Shlomi Binder. Katz alleged that Binder had warned his troops about the security risks of US President Donald Trump’s plan to “take over” Gaza, including warnings about escalation of violence in the West Bank. The Israeli leader took offence to Binder’s statements, issuing a counter-warning that there should be “no reality in which IDF officers speak out against US President Trump’s important plan regarding Gaza and against the directives of the political echelon.” Alleging Binder of contradicting the political leadership, Katz added that he “ordered the IDF to prepare to advance the plan for the voluntary departure of Gaza residents who would be interested in leaving to various places in the world.” Defending himself, Binder claimed that he did not contradict Trump or the political leadership, and was only presenting the possible ramifications of the ongoing discussions on Gaza, the perspective of Israel’s adversaries, and the offensive measures Israel would have to counter them. 

Israel: Netanyahu uses failed no-confidence vote to highlight US’ praise for war effort
On 10 February, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the Knesset ahead of a failed no-confidence vote. Netanyahu used his address to emphasise his recent US visit, contrasting the Trump government’s favourable view of his approach to the Hamas war with the opposition’s distrust of his government. The Prime Minister called his meeting with Trump “the most important and friendly I have ever had with an American president,” stressing that both governments had similar views on “essential issues” in the Middle East, including the realisation of Israel’s war aims. Netanyahu claimed that US officials praised Israel’s war efforts, including its attacks on Iran and decapitation of Hamas and Hezbollah, and lambasted the opposition parties for wanting “the cessation of the war at a very early stage.” On the hostage issue, Netanyahu defended his military-driven approach, arguing that his aggressive political approach, coupled with the military’s heroism, forced Hamas to sign the hostage deal. Furthermore, he defended Israel’s campaign in Rafah — another decision that the opposition objected to — claiming that it was essential to weaken Hamas. 

Syria: Qatar and Jordan advance normalisation efforts with HTS government
On 31 January, Qatar and Jordan advanced their normalisation efforts with Syria’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) government. Qatar’s Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates, Assad al-Shaibani, signed a comprehensive framework for bilateral cooperation with his Syrian counterpart, Assad al-Shaibani. Addressing a press conference, Al-Shaibani stated that the framework would facilitate “reconstruction in various sectors,” including rebuilding Syria’s devastated infrastructure and ensuring the rights of all Syrian communities. On the same day, Royal Jordanian Airlines, the Kingdom’s flag carrier, announced that it would resume commercial flights to Damascus. The airline stated that the decision “comes in conjunction with the decision of the Jordanian Ministry of Interior to allow Jordanian citizens to travel by air…to the international airports of Damascus and Aleppo.” Additionally, the carrier announced that it would operate four flights per week from Jordan’s Queen Alia to Damascus Airport, they aim to connect Syria’s airline market with countries around the world. 

Israel: Netanyahu meets Trump to discuss ceasefire and the future of Gaza 
On 5 February, US President Donald J Trump met Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the future of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. During the press conference after the meeting, Netanyahu praised Trump as Israel’s “greatest friend,” praising his ability to “think outside the box.” Referencing Trump’s controversial comment on US “taking over” the Gaza Strip, the Israeli leader insisted that the US President said “things that others refuse to say. And after the jaws drop, the people scratch their heads and they say, ‘You know he’s right.” Unlike Arab and European leaders who denounced Trump’s intentions of controlling the enclave, Netanyahu stated that Trump could “change history” and was worth “paying attention to.” On the ceasefire’s future, Trump warned that the US would get “more violent” if Hamas did not release all its hostages. The Prime Minister praised Trump’s leadership in bringing home Hamas captives and providing Israel with arms and munitions withheld by the Biden administration. Furthermore, he expressed admiration for Trump’s continuation of the “maximum pressure” policy against Iran, his decision to stop funding to the UNRWA, and his withdrawal of sanctions on Israeli settlers in the West Bank. Netanyahu claimed that with US support, Israel was stronger than ever and Iran at its weakest. On Israel’s endgame for the war, Netanyahu insisted that Israel would “end the war by winning the war,” adding that he would cooperate with Saudi Arabia to establish peace in Gaza. However, Saudi Arabia refuted the claim, stating that it would not cooperate with Israel until a Palestinian State was established. On Iran, Trump took a less assertive position than Netanyahu. While the latter remained committed to rolling back Iran’s influence in the region, Trump remained open to facing the Iran problem without military means.
 
Sudan: The AU’s concerns over humanitarian crisis, RSF’s attack on the Zamzam displacement camp and SAF’s bid to form “technocratic” government in Khartoum 
On 11 February, the African Union warned that Sudan has created the “worst humanitarian crisis in the world.” Chairperson of the AU High Level Panel on Sudan (HLP-Sudan) Mohamed Ibn Chambas stated: “The war has hampered access to humanitarian relief, led to shortage of food and aggravated hunger. Children and women are continually abused, and the elderly and sick lack medical assistance.” On 12 February, BBC reported that the RSF stormed the Zamzam displacement camp in North Darfur. On 10 February, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) called for diplomatic support to establish a new government after it recaptured Khartoum. The SAF leader Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan announced that it will form a “technocratic” wartime government in Khartoum.

Somalia: US carries out military air strikes against ISIL 
On 2 February, the Government of Puntland, a semi-autonomous region of Somalia, reported the killing of “key figures” of the ISIL by the US in the Golis Mountains. Amidst fear of ISILs rising influence, the military air strikes were ordered by the US to neutralise the threat and advance into the second phase of the operation, according to the Puntland government. In a post made by Trump, he stated that the strikes “destroyed the caves” of the terrorists while ensuring the safety of civilians. On 3 February, Puntland Bari region’s head of police, Abdikadir Jama Dirir, confirmed the capture of senior ISIL commander and head of the assassination squad, Abdirahman Shirwac Aw-Saciid.

South Africa: Trump signs executive order to halt aid
On 7 February, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order to halt aid to South Africa amidst President Cyril Ramaphosa's signing of the expropriation act. Trump claimed that the act was “unjust and immoral” against the white minority Afrikaner community in South Africa. Trump additionally referred to South Africa’s case against Israel in the ICJ behind the new move. Trump has suggested resettlement of “Afrikaners in South Africa who are victims of unjust racial discrimination” in the US as refugees. Trump’s move has increased concerns in South Africa about the potential impact on the US-Africa trade programme known as the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (Agoa). South African government denied Trump’s accusation. South Africa's Minister of Foreign Affairs Ronald Lamola responded that “no chance” the country would withdraw the ICJ case. He added: "Standing by our principles sometimes has consequences, but we remain firm that this is important for the world, and the rule of law.”

Europe and The Americas
Ukraine: Massive drone and missile attacks across Russia and eastern Ukraine
On 4 February, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) reported 85 combat clashes in the last 24 hours. According to the UAF, Russian forces launched two missiles and 76 airstrikes on Ukraine’s settlements using missiles and guided aerial bombs. It also recorded 5300 other shelling, 81 multiple-launch rocket systems and 2,711 kamikaze drone strikes. The strikes were observed across “Udy, Saltyne, Kozacha Lopan, Kostiantynivka, Kostiantynopil, Vilne Pole, Burlatske, Andriivka, Udachne, Huliaipole, Novopil, Orikhiv, and Kherson.” In response, Ukraine’s military struck six enemy troops and equipment using artillery and missile forces. At the sector level, Kharkiv witnessed an assault near Vovchansk, Kupiansk Oblast saw seven attacks, and Lyman Oblast witnessed two assaults. In the Pokrovsk and Huliaipole sectors, Ukrainian forces confirmed repelling 35 Russian attacks. Whereas, in Kursk, Russian forces launched 46 airstrikes, 67 guided bomb launches and 378 artillery strikes. On 5 February, the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) units along with Ukraine’s Armed Forces claimed striking Russia’s oil refinery in Krasnodar city in Russia. According to the report in Ukrinform, the facility was known as a “mini-refinery” which processes crude, gasoline, and diesel for the Russian military. Additionally, SSU also reported on targeting Russia’s Buk surface-to-air missile systems using drones in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. 

Ukraine: UN reports high casualty rate from short-range drone attacks
On 11 February, Ukrinform reported on the UN report on the increasing casualty rate in Ukraine. According to the report, in January 2025, short-range drones caused higher deaths among civilians than any other weapon. Nearly 139 civilians were killed and 738 injured as per the report. According to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU), drones were responsible for 27 per cent of civilian deaths and 30 per cent of injuries, which were caused when cars and buses were targetted. Majorly the deaths were recorded in Ukrainian-controlled areas such as Kherson, where drones caused 70 per cent of civilian casualties along the Dnipro River. Other areas include Kharkiv, Sumy, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia. There was a significant increase in drone-related civilian casualties in the second half of 2024 despite the use of onboard cameras which were used to identify civilians and military targets. Daniel Bell, head of the HRMMU, highlighted the high risk of short-range drones, especially for civilians on the frontline. 

Russia: South Korean Defence Ministry confirms North Korea's supply of long-range artillery 
On 11 February, South Korea's Ministry of Defence reported that North Korea had sent approximately 200 long-range artilleries to Russia. Earlier, it had given 11,000 troops, missiles, and a large number of ammunitions to Russia. This has raised concerns over continued supply by North Korea to Russia with more troops and weapons. The ministry mentioned North Korea's ongoing weapons development program, which is expected to focus on nuclear-powered submarines, spy satellites, and solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). The ministry further highlighted North Korea's attempt for technological assistance from Russia especially in nuclear-powered submarines and ICBM atmospheric re-entry technology. 

Georgia: Opposition-triggered protests led to the arrest of two leaders
On 2 February, during a demonstration against the ruling Georgian Dream party in Tbilisi, two opposition leaders, Nika Melia and Gigi Ugulava, were taken into custody by Georgian police. Irakli Kobakhidze, the prime minister, declared that Georgia would not pursue EU membership negotiations before 2028, which set off the protest. Head of EU foreign policy, Kaja Kallas, expressed sympathy with the Georgian people and denounced: "...brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters, journalists, and politicians." Following her report of abuse while in detention, Melia, the leader of the liberal Akhali party, was eventually freed on bond. Due to opposition claims of electoral fraud in the October 2024 elections, which the Georgian Dream alleged to have won, thousands of people gathered and briefly blocked a key road as part of the protests. The protests were also triggered after a controversial law passed in 2023 granting increased government control over the NGOs and the media.

Germany: Mass protests in Berlin against CDU for seeking AfD support over asylum bill
On 2 February, over 160,000 people gathered in Berlin to protest the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) for seeking support from the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in parliament, particularly over an asylum bill. The CDU with the Christian Social Union (CSU) and other parties, backed the bill, which was narrowly rejected, but the CDU's cooperation with the AfD sparked outrage across Germany. Protesters said: "Shame on you CDU," accused the party of breaking a longstanding taboo against collaborating with far-right groups. CDU leader Friedrich Merz moved away from the alliance, stating the end of cooperation with the AfD. Despite the bill rejection, the collaboration led to former CDU vice president Michel Friedman resigning, calling it a"catastrophic watershed for democracy." Protests against the CDU and CSU's actions also spread across several German cities, raising concerns about the increasing influence of the far-right in politics.

Germany: Parliament rejects immigration law proposed by AfD
On 31 January, Euronews reported on Germany's parliament rejecting a controversial immigration law proposed by Friedrich Merz from the centre-right Union group that aimed to increase migration controls. The law includes measures ending family reunions for certain migrants and expanding deportation powers. However, in the final vote, 350 voted against and 338 in favour, with five abstentions. This bill became a controversy after Merz's bloc along with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party attempted to vouch, breaking a long-standing political "firewall" against collaboration with far-right groups. The vote adds to the rift between Merz's bloc and Germany's Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left government, with the Union currently leading in the polls. Despite the rejection, Merz continues to make efforts for tougher migration policies over public opinion and demean the appeal of the AfD. In response, protests emerged across Germany against his tactics, and the political scenario stayed divided.

About the authors
Anu Maria Joseph and Padmashree Anandhan are Project Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Abhiruchi Chowdhury and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad. Vaishak Sreekumar and C Shraddha are postgraduate students at Jindal Global University, Sonipat. Emma Rose Boby is an undergraduate student at St Joseph's University, Bangalore.

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