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CWA # 1602, 27 February 2025
Conflict Weekly
Three Years of Ukraine War

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #270, 27 February 2025, Vol.6, No. 9
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Ramya B and Padmashree Anandhan

Three Years of Ukraine War: Between Geographic gains and losses, Military stalemate and a Diplomatic U-turn
Ramya B and Padmashree Anandhan
 
In the news
On 24 February, marking three years of war, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stressed on Ukraine’s peace and security concerns, continued support and security guarantees. On the same day, EU leaders issued several statements assuring their firm support. EU President Ursula von der Leyen said: “A just and lasting peace comes only through strength.” and assured that the EU would "increase punitive sanctions against Russia unless they demonstrate true willingness to achieve a lasting peace agreement."

On the same day, across the Atlantic, US President Trump asked Ukraine to “forget about” entering NATO and said that the deal on rare earths with Ukraine was “very close.” Mentioning his last call with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, he said that Ukraine was responsible for the conflict, indicating a complete shift in the US’s approach to the war. 

On 23 and 24 February, the UNGA adopted a European-led resolution condemning Russia's invasion, with 93 votes in favor and 18 against, including the US. The UNSC passed a US-drafted resolution calling for peace without ascribing blame, which was approved with 10 votes in favour and five abstentions. 

Issues at large
First, a brief note on major developments during the last three years of the war. In 2022, Russia invaded close to 100,000 square kilometres of Ukraine and continues to control 90,000 square kilometers now including Donetsk, Luhansk, and some parts of southern Ukraine. It was also the only year that saw Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive within its territory pushing back Russian forces from the eastern Dniper River in Kherson Oblast, thanks to advanced medium and high-range weapons. During 2023, the war prolonged with exhaustive battles at Bakhmut and Avdiivka with no major advances for Ukraine. In 2024, the attacks became more tactical than making progress on the ground. Both Ukraine and Russia targeted strategic oil facilities, military hubs, communication, and critical infrastructure to make gains. The only exception would be the Kursk counteroffensive.

Second, Ukraine’s dire ground situation. During the last three years, Ukraine has lost 11 per cent of its land area in the eastern and southern regions facing severe human loss and infrastructure destruction. The support from its backers is changing. While Europe has proposed stationing its peacekeeping force to prevent Russian aggression in the future, the US is forcing Kyiv to end the war. International support before and after Trump for Ukraine has altered, with many right-wing European governments supporting Trump’s decision to end the war to start focusing on strengthening their defences and economy. 

Third, Russia's changing fortune. In the last three years of special military operations in Ukraine, Russia has not fulfilled its original objective of demilitarizing Ukraine. Moscow has suffered heavy losses of 700,000 casualties and has enabled Ukraine to strengthen its military capabilities through Western arms and training programmes. On the other hand, Russia controls about 20 per cent of Ukrainian territory including, Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk Oblasts, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts actively suppressing any form of resistance. The economic sanctions imposed by NATO did not collapse the Russian economy and they succeeded in shifting their trade interest to China, India and others.  Russia succeeded in procuring arms deals with North Korea including artillery shells and rocket-launch systems approximately 50 per cent of ammunition needs. Russia’s military strategy has evolved significantly adapting to the complexities of the changing international situation. Moscow is now manoeuvring its territorial gains and navigating the challenges of the united Western response. 

Fourth, Europe's dilemma. The war has highlighted Europe's defence vulnerabilities and renewed interest in the arms industry as well as towards reaching self-sufficiency in arms manufacturing. EU has provided 134 billion Euros in support for Ukraine and its people and the EU have also given €28.2 billion in EU macro-financial assistance for Ukraine, in the form of loans and grants. Inflation, energy crises, and economic strain, affecting public opinion in European countries have led to a war fatigue.  Leaders of France and Germany and a few others have started hinting at the possibility of a settlement, while others (Baltic states, and Poland) have remained staunchly supportive of a full Ukrainian victory. 

Fifth, the UN role. The UN has tried to play an important role in addressing the Ukraine conflict. This includes condemning Russia, approving humanitarian aid, and investigating human rights violations. Similarly, the UNGA has passed several resolutions disapproving the invasion. However, they have failed to make a real impact on Ukraine or any other supporting actor. Challenges continue to persist in achieving peace.
 
In perspective
The three years of war in Ukraine have shifted the global order. It has exposed the waning influence of the West while several global south countries prioritise their national interest over West-led policies. The war has also become a wake-up call to increase investment to boost defence and collaborate for stronger strategic partnerships. This applies mainly to the EU which has realised its gap in military spending and would now focus on cutting its dependence on the US military. The war has disturbed the global food supplies, and humanitarian crisis and increased the need for accountability measures for human rights violations. It also reflects the shifting dynamics in diplomacy and peace talks restructuring the power balances in an intensely fragmented world.

NIAS Conflict Tracker
Where, When and What
D Suba Chandran and Anu Maria Joseph

Myanmar: Lethal airstrikes and Crackdown on scam centers
During the last week, the confrontation between the military and ethnic groups continued. Another big development during the week was relating to action against scam centers that were based in Myanmar, especially in those areas bordering Thailand.

On 26 February, the Irrawady reported about a military airstrike at the Myaing township in the Malwe region, targeting a wedding reception and killing 14 civilians. According to the report, two 500-lb bombs were dropped. On the same day, Irrawady also reported ethnic armed organizations accusing the military for using thermobaric bombs, in the Shan, Chin and Kachin states and in the Sagaing region.

On 25 February, the Irrawady reported meeting between the Thai Foreign Minister and Myanmar's military leader. During the week, there were also trilateral meetings between Myanmar, Thailand and China that focussed on repatriating those foreigners involved in scam operations. During the last few weeks, there have been extra focus on the scam centers that were based in Myanmar. China is believed to have played a role in the crackdown. According to the report, "Beijing has been pressuring regional countries including Myanmar and Thailand to act since some Chinese citizens including celebrities were trafficked across the border to Myawaddy in January, resulting in a crackdown on scam hubs in the Karen State town." The report, referring to military's news sources said: "2,370 foreign nationals involved in scam operations who illegally entered Myanmar through neighboring countries including Thailand had been arrested...673 of them were handed over through Thailand, and arrangements were being made to transfer the remaining individuals. Most of the detainees are from China and the rest are from Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, Pakistan, India, Uganda, Ethiopia, Nepal, Rwanda, Kenya, Kazakhstan and Cambodia."

Pakistan: Violence in KP and Balochistan and Border tensions with Afghanistan
During the last week, there were incidents of violence across the two provinces - Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Besides violence within, Pakistan also witnessed tensions in its border with Afghanistan - leading to the closure of Torkham checkpoint.

On 24 February, in KP, a militant attack in North Waziristan led to the killing of four security personnel and three militants. On 23 February, two militants were killed in Balochistan on the Quetta-Sibi highway. Also on the same day, according to a ISPR note, seven militants were killed in DI Khan. On 21 February, six militants were killed by the security forces in KP province.

On 22 February, in the latest round of tension with Afghanistan, Pakistan closed the border crossing at Torkham, a checkpoint that connects Pakistan's KP and Afghanistan's Nangarhar provinces, thereby connecting Peshawar with Jalalabad and connecting Islamabad with Kabul. The border point remains closed until 26 February (at the time of filing this weekly), stopping the movement of people and goods. According to a news report in the Express Tribune, Pakistan had closed the point due to "construction of trenches and other development work" on the Afghan side. On 24 February 2024, Dawn in its report mentioned that the Afghans who had gone to the checkpoint, and trucks with edibles and perishables had to return.

Sudan: SAF recaptures el-Obeid and RSF’s bid to establish parallel government
While the violence is continuing and peace talks are on hold, last week saw the SAF recapturing several regions in the capital Khartoum and the RSF’s attack on the Zamzam displacement camp. As both sides have become increasingly adamant about forming parallel governments, fears are increasing whether the war will divide the country.

During the previous week, the major development was on 25 February when the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) ended a two-year siege by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in el-Obeid, the capital of North Kordofan state. The city is strategically important as it connects Khartoum to the Darfur region. On the same day, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) signed a political charter in Nairobi, Kenya, to establish a parallel government in the areas under its control. Sudan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that the country would "not accept" any country recognising "a so-called parallel government.

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Ayan Datta, Nuha Aamina, Abhiruchi Chowdhury, Fleur Elizebeth Philip and C Shraddha

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Military attaché visits Niger
On 25 February, South China Morning Post reported that a Chinese defence attaché, Colonel Major Chen Xuming, visited Niger for the first time. During his visit, Xuming expressed his commitment to work with the West African countries on global security initiatives. China’s Ambassador to Niger Jiang Feng said: China will “support Niger in strengthening its security capabilities and in the fight against terrorism and cross-border crime to preserve the peace and security of Niger and the region.”

China: Hong Kong’s opposition party plans to dissolve amidst crackdown
On 21 February, BBC reported on the Hong Kong Democratic Party’s plans to dissolve. The DP is the largest opposition party in Hong Kong. The party’s Chairman Lo Kin-hei informed that the members of the party will vote on their decision to dissolve. To dissolve the party, 75 per cent of the members need to approve. The move comes as the party struggles to survive after China’s crackdown against its leaders and the dissenters, following the 2019 protest. In 2021, a “patriot’s law” was passed where parties loyal to the Communist Party of China (CPC) were allowed to serve as local lawmakers and councillors. Consequently, the Hong Kong DP was barred from participating in elections.

China: Defence Ministry accuses Australia of making “unreasonable accusations” against the live-fire naval drill
On 23 February, China’s Ministry of National Defence accused Australia of making “hyped up” and “unreasonable accusations” against the recent live-fire naval drills in the Pacific waters between Australia and New Zealand. The accusations came after Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said that China did not provide enough details before the live-fire exercise. Albanese stated: “Notification did occur of this event, what we have done is to make representation, saying that we think best practice would be to give more notice, and we’ve done that through diplomatic channels, as is appropriate.” China’s Ministry of Defence spokesperson Wu Qian responded: “China’s actions are in full compliance with international law and international practices and will not affect aviation flight safety. Australia, knowing this well, made unreasonable accusations against China and deliberately hyped it up. We are deeply surprised and strongly dissatisfied with this.”

Taiwan: Reiterates commitment to ensure national security
On 19 February, Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te reaffirmed his commitment to strengthen the country's defence through increased spending and reforms. He said: “Taiwan is a chess player, not a chess piece in the shifting geopolitical climate.” He reiterated his pledge to raise defence spending to more than three per cent of Taiwan's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Taiwan’s annual defence spending has hovered between two and 2.5 per cent of GDP since 2016. He expressed his commitment to push for military reforms and proactive measures to protect sea communication cables, in light of damage to the Taiwan-Matsu No. 2 and No. 3 cables by natural deterioration, and the alleged damage to the Trans-Pacific Express (TPE) cable by a freighter linked to China.

South Korea: Ukraine to send North Korean prisoners of war to Seoul
On 22 February, a representative of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, Andriy Chernyak discussed the possibility of transferring the Prisoner of War (PoW) from North Korea to South Korea. South Korean government expressed willingness to provide protection and support to the soldiers as South Korean citizens. South Korea made the statement after two captured PoW requested to defect to South Korea, instead of being sent back to North Korea.

Japan: Seven citizens rescued from scam centres in Thailand-Myanmar border
On 21 February, seven Japanese nationals were taken into protective custody from scam centres at the Thailand-Myanmar border. At least 120,000 people including several Japanese nationals are believed to be under captive. After being rescued, Thailand authorities began to return many captives to their countries. Four of the returned Japanese nationals had been detained by the Thai police for illegally crossing the Myanmar border. The National Police Agency’s director of the criminal affairs bureau Shigeyuki Tani said: “We believe that the scam centre may be used as a base for fraud against people in Japan and that there may be other Japanese nationals still held there.”

Australia: Government to monitor Chinese warships detected off the east coast
On 20 February, the Australian government said that it would monitor three Chinese warships near the east coast of Australia and inside its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The three ships, the Jiangkai-class frigate Hengyang, the Renhai-class cruiser Zunyi and the Fuchi-class replenishment vessel Weishanhu were detected off Northeast Queensland and sailed south, 150 nautical miles off the coast of Sydney. Australia’s Department of Defence stated: “Australia respects the rights of all states to exercise freedom of navigation and overflight in international waters and airspace, under international law, particularly the UN convention on the law of the sea.” The ships have been conducting real combat exercises in the Pacific Ocean since January.

Myanmar: Paramotor bombs deployed in Mandalay, Sagaing and Magwe regions
On 25 February, Irrawaddy reported that Myanmar’s military regime is expanding its air attacks on civilian targets by using paramotors, jet fighters, gunships, and Y12 airplanes in Mandalay, Sagaing, and Magwe regions. The mass killings include men, women, children, and livestock.  The use of paramotors in Mandalay and Sagaing is due to the lack of aircraft and helicopters. They are being deployed with 120 mm shellfire. The resistance groups in the regions have weak air defence capabilities. The military doesn't use paramotors in the regions that have strong resistance forces including the Kachin Independence Army in Kachin and the Arakan Army in Rakhine. The paramotor operations are used for surprise aerial attacks.

South Asia
Bangladesh: Myanmar’s Arakan Army abducts 19 fishermen
On 20 February, Myanmar's Arakan Army abducted 19 fishermen from Bangladesh in the Naf River of Cox Bazar. The Teknaf Upazila Nirbahi Officer, Sheikh Ehsan Uddin, divulged that along with the fishermen, four trawlers were seized. This comes after the abduction of six fishermen by the Arakan Army from the Naf River estuary on 10 February.

India: 32 fishermen captured by Sri Lanka
On 23 February, 32 fishermen were captured from Ramanathapuram, Rameswaram and Thangachimadam in Tamil Nadu by the Sri Lankan Navy near Mannar. They were arrested for poaching along the Palk Strait. Additionally, five trawlers were seized. In response, the members of fishermen associations in Rameswaram announced an indefinite strike against the Sri Lankan Navy. The fishermen's association representative, R Sagayam, said: “We want to draw the attention of the Union and State governments to help us in this hour of crisis.” Sagayam revealed that the Sri Lankan government is planning to auction 67 trawlers seized by the navy in 2024.

Pakistan: 19 terrorists killed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
On 21 February, security forces killed six terrorists in an intelligence-based operation (IBO) in Karak, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) informed that the operation was initiated after receiving intelligence regarding the presence of terrorists in the region. The ISPR stated: “The sanitization operation continues to ensure the area is cleared of any remaining threats.”

On 24 February, Dawn reported that a checkpost in North Waziristan was attacked by terrorists, killing four security personnel and three terrorists. On the same day, security forces in Khyber killed ten militants in an intelligence-based operation. 

On the same day, a truck convoy that was providing security to the copper project in Kalat was attacked. The trucks were carrying blaster copper to Karachi along the Quetta-Karachi National Highway. The blast wounded six security personnel. Separately, an unidentified gunman shot four in Hub, Balochistan.

The Middle East and Africa
Israel: Three detained in connection with Tel Aviv bus bombings
On 21 February, Israel Police and the Shin Bet internal security agency detained two Israelis and one Palestinian individual in connection with bus bombings in Tel Aviv on 20 February. While two bombs went off in the city of Bat Yam near Tel Aviv, another detonated in Holon. The bombs left no casualties.

On 20 February, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered a military occupation in the West Bank following three bus explosions in Tel Aviv, suspecting that West Bank-based armed groups were behind the attack. Following the attacks, Netanyahu reportedly held a meeting with the Minister of Defence, Israel Katz, chiefs of the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) and top police and security officials, after which he “ordered the IDF to carry out an intensive operation against centres of terrorism in the West Bank.” Additionally, the IDF stated that it would deploy three additional battalions in the West Bank as part of “expand(ing) offensive activity” in the enclave. The coming operation would follow Israel’s massive military campaign in the West Bank, dubbed “Operation Iron Wall,” which took place in January and focused on the enclave’s politically restive north.

Israel: Netanyahu says Israel will not allow Syrian forces south of Damascus
On 23 February, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel would not allow Syria’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to enter areas south of Damascus, insisting that Israeli forces would remain in parts of southern Syria indefinitely. Speaking at a military graduation ceremony, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that neither “HTS forces” nor “the new Syrian army” will be allowed “to enter the area south of Damascus.” He further demanded a “complete demilitarization of southern Syria in the provinces of Quneitra, Daraa and Suwayda from the forces of the new regime.” Additionally, he threatened that he would not tolerate “any threat to the Druze community in southern Syria.” Separately, Israel’s Minister of Defence, Israel Katz, stated that the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) would remain on the Syrian side of Mount Hermon and in Syria’s UN-patrolled buffer zone, which Israel occupied in December 2024. Katz added that the Israeli presence in Syria would serve as a buffer zone to protect against any threat from Syria. Echoing Netanyahu’s sentiments, Katz outlined that Israel would not allow any Syrian troop presence between Damascus and the Israeli deployments to the south.

Syria: EU suspends sanctions in key areas
On 24 February, the EU suspended a wide range of sanctions against Syria, effective immediately. These include restrictions in the crucial sectors such as energy, transport, banking and reconstruction. The decision followed a meeting in Brussels, where EU Foreign Ministers decided to change their sanctions policy towards the new Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) regime in Syria. However, the EU countries will retain several Assad-era sanctions on Syria in domains such as arms trading, dual-use commodities, surveillance software, and international trade of Syrian cultural and heritage artefacts. Moreover, the EU notified that the member states would continuously monitor the situation to ensure that suspensions remained appropriate. The Arab Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, and several humanitarian aid agencies have supported a sanctions-free Syria, arguing that it hinders aid delivery and economic reconstruction of the war-ravaged country.

Israel: Hamas considering deal to transfer hostages’ bodies to Egypt
On 24 February, the Times of Israel reported that Hamas was considering a deal to transfer the bodies of two hostages to Egypt in exchange for around 602 Palestinian prisoners. The situation unfolded after Israel’s government refused to hand over the Palestinian inmates until Hamas stopped the practice of holding elaborate ceremonies for the hostages, which Israel claims are propaganda-filled. Speaking in anonymity, a senior Israeli official revealed that the hostage-ceasefire deal would be on the “brink of collapse” if the impasse was not bridged by 27 February.

Sudan: SAF ends RSF’s two-year siege in el-Obeid
On 25 February, BBC reported that the freezing of aid by the US has led to the closure of approximately 80 per cent of emergency food kitchens in Sudan. According to an emergency room organiser, Duaa Tariq: "People are screaming from hunger in the streets." A former USAID official, Andrea Tracy, called the aid freeze a "huge setback." The World Food Programme (WFP) stated that it received waivers for its thirteen existing Sudanese grants with USAID, but the future remains uncertain. On the same day, the Sudanese army reported breaking a two-year siege imposed by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in el-Obeid. Sudan’s Minister of Finance Jibril Ibrahim said that the move was a "massive step" in diminishing RSF control over el-Fasher, allowing the transport of humanitarian aid. Meanwhile, the RSF signed a charter in Nairobi to establish a breakaway government. On 23 February, Sudan's Minister of Foreign Affairs Ali Youssef said his country would "not accept" any country recognising "a so-called parallel government.”

Democratic Republic of Congo: Updates on M23 violence in eastern DRC
On 20 February, the US Department of Treasury sanctioned Rwanda’s Minister of State for Regional Integration, James Kabarebe, and senior member of the Congo River Alliance, Lawrence Kanyuka Kingston, for their alleged involvement in the DRC-M23 violence. The US treasury accused Kabarebe of being “central to Rwanda’s support” for the M23 rebels. On the same day, Germany stated its intention to summon the Rwandan ambassador to Berlin to protest against the actions of the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels in eastern DRC.

On 21 February, Africanews reported the death of 22 individuals when a boat carrying refugees capsized in eastern DRC. As people continue to flee the violence, hundreds have been killed due to dangerous and illegal ferry services.

On 21 February, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) unanimously adopted a resolution calling for an unconditional ceasefire in DR Congo. France’s representative to the UN, Nicolas de Rivière, stated: "There is no military solution to the conflict. The M23 offensive, supported by Rwanda, must end. The priority now is to reach an effective, unconditional, and immediate ceasefire agreement."

On 24 February, Africanews reported the defection of more than 200 police officers and soldiers to the Alliance Fleuve Congo which includes M23. The spokesperson of M23 rebels, Lawrence Kanyuka, stated: "The police officers joining us want to work with us to liberate the country and fight against tribalism, exclusion, and poor governance."
  
The Americas
The US: Sanctions on China, India, and Hong Kong for allegedly financing Iranian militants
On 25 February, the South China Morning Post reported that US President Donald Trump imposed new sanctions on individuals, entities, and tankers in China, Hong Kong, and India. This move is motivated by their “maximum pressure campaign,” against Iran’s oil industry. These entities from the respective countries are accused of allegedly financing Iran’s militant groups. The sanctions target more than 30 individuals, entities, and vessels. This comes after Trump issued an executive order to “drive Iran’s oil exports to zero” to ensure that Iran is never allowed “to acquire or develop any nuclear weapons” as “it disrupts Iran’s efforts to generate oil revenues to fund terrorist activities.”

About the authors
Ramya B an Associate Professor at the Department of History, Kristu Jayanti College, Bangaluru. Anu Maria Joseph and Padmashree Anandhan are Project Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Abhiruchi Chowdhury and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Fleur Elizebeth Philip is a Research Intern at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad. C Shraddha is a postgraduate student at Jindal Global University, Sonipat. Nova Karun is a postgraduate student at Pondicherry University.

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