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CWA # 1609, 6 March 2025
Conflict Weekly
Ukraine and Gaza under Trump’s Shadow

  IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #271, 6 March 2025, Vol.6, No. 10
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Padmashree Anandhan and D Suba Chandran

Ukraine: US, Europe and a Fragile Road to Peace
Padmashree Anandhan
 
In the news
On 27 February, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer during his visit to Washington praised US President Donald Trump for creating a "moment of tremendous opportunity" for peace in Ukraine but warned “…it can't be peace that rewards the aggressor.” While Trump hinted at the possibility of returning some seized Ukrainian territory, he offered no clear security guarantee. 

On 28 February, during the meeting between Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump and US Vice President JD Vance, Trump expressed frustration over what he perceived as a lack of appreciation from Ukraine. He said: "You should be more grateful for the support we've provided.” Zelenskyy responded: “We are fighting and dying for our freedom and yours.” The leaders clashed over a proposed critical minerals agreement. Trump stressed for US access to Ukraine's resources as part of the support package, which was denied by Zelenskyy. Lastly, Trump warned that the US will no longer support Ukraine.

On 2 March, European leaders gathered to address the situation in Ukraine. The outcome of the summit was the decision to increase support for Ukraine. Three objectives highlighted by NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte were: “Immediate support; Sustainable peace; Enhanced defence spending.” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen introduced the "ReArm Europe" plan, aiming to boost defence capabilities among member states. This initiative proposes up to EUR 800 billion to enhance military readiness and address emerging threats. The summit ended with Starmer proposing the formation of the “Coalition of the willing.” The initiative will involve a group of countries prepared to take decisive action, potentially deploying peacekeeping forces to Ukraine.

On 3 March, in response to the EU leader summit, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov argued that the funding pledges made by European leaders were not aimed at achieving peace but to prolong the war. He stated that these commitments do not contribute to a peaceful resolution and stressed the need for efforts to change Zelenskyy's approach to the situation. 

On 4 March, in a joint Congress session, Trump delivered an address hinting at the immediate need to end the Ukraine conflict and military aid. He stated Zelenskyy’s readiness for peace talks and willingness for the critical minerals deal and criticised Europe for its financial decisions to make the US outspend. On 5 March, Zelenskyy said: “It was time to make things right.” 

Issues at large
First, Ukraine’s tough diplomatic and ground situation. The recent diplomatic engagements indicate a fragmented approach towards achieving peace in Ukraine. The clash between Trump and Zelenskyy showcases the lack of consensus on ending the war. Trump's focus on immediate ceasefire negotiations diverges with Ukraine's demand for a security guarantee and the full restoration of its territorial integrity. It has created tension between the two. Since Trump’s return, Ukraine has been in a tricky balancing act between seeking immediate peace and a long-term security guarantee to deter future aggression. The divide in the EU-US approach worsens Kyiv's dilemma. Zelenskyy's firmness in not agreeing to give away Ukrainian territories contradicts Trump's willingness to delve into partial territorial compromises.

Second, Europe’s harsh reality. European leaders have made efforts to fill the gap left by the US through discussions on deploying a peacekeeping force. The UK and France are at the forefront leading the “Coalition of the Willing,” aiming to establish a Europe-led force to safeguard any future ceasefire. Simultaneously, European countries are aiming to boost defence spending, coordinate military aid, and find ways for economic cooperation with Ukraine. The differences which had existed earlier over sanctions, military aid and Ukraine’s EU membership have now narrowed to coming together to secure a peace that supports Ukraine. 

Third, the pressure from US and Trump. Trump’s decision to temporarily pause military aid to Ukraine signals a potential shift in the US approach. His proposal to access critical minerals has been victorious. However, this move does not promise Ukraine security guarantees. The suspension of aid only increases Ukraine’s vulnerability, especially at a time when Russian attacks are intensifying. 
 
In perspective
First, a fragile road for peace in Ukraine. The progress is no longer towards supporting Ukraine on the ground but rather finding a swift resolution. Europe’s late response and the US’s daunting moves have mounted severe pressure on Ukraine to compromise its territorial integrity. Europe’s post-war promises do not guarantee Ukraine from future aggression. The outcome of this conflict resolution seemingly undermines international norms over sovereignty and national interest. It adds benefit to the authoritarian systems, leaving Ukraine with a strangled peace.

Second, Europe moving towards a stronger defence armory. The “Coalition of the Willing” aims to provide security guarantees to Ukraine. However, without clear US military backing, this initiative risks being only a symbolic sign rather than a concrete preventive against future Russian aggression. Sustaining European unity is also challenged by varying national interests, financial strains, and the need to balance diplomacy without bargaining for Ukraine's sovereignty. This marks a significant step towards European autonomy and reshaping its role in global security.

Third, flip switch US. The recent talks show how Trump is force-pushing for a quick end to the Ukraine conflict with a stern stand for a ceasefire negotiation rather than military aid. This conditioning pushed Ukraine to pursue peace signaling a shift from prolonging conflict to accelerated diplomacy. The flip-switch strategy of the US reduced its entangled situation and pressured Ukraine into negotiations which could favour Russia. This leaves out European allies' concerns over the lasting of the peace settlement with future security risks.

Gaza Ceasefire’s Troubled Second Phase: 
Between Hamas’ Reluctance, American Threat and Israeli Conditions
D Suba Chandran
 
In the news
On 1 March, after 42 days, the first phase of the ceasefire agreed between Israel and Hamas came to an end. 

On 2 March, Israel stopped the humanitarian aid convoy from entering Gaza, following the refusal of Hamas to extend the first phase of ceasefire for some more period, before starting the second phase.

On 5 March 2025, Trump threatened Hamas once again. In a social media post, he warned Hamas: “Release all of the Hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you… I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say… This is your last warning! For the leadership, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance.” His post also said: “To the People of Gaza: A beautiful Future awaits, but not if you hold Hostages. If you do, you are DEAD!". His note concluded: “Make a SMART decision. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW, OR THERE WILL BE HELL TO PAY LATER!”

On 5 March, the New York Times reported about a meeting between the US and Hamas in Doha, focusing on the release of an American hostage and four bodies of Israeli Americans.

Issues at large
First a brief note on the first phase of the ceasefire. On 19 January, both Israel and Hamas had agreed to kickstart a three-phase deal. The first phase was to last for six weeks; both Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire during this phase, an exchange of a certain number of hostages by Hamas and Palestinian prisoners by Israel. As a part of the above, Hamas released 25 hostages from its captivity and eight dead bodies; Israel released more than 1900 Palestinian prisoners. Israel was also to allow humanitarian aid to move into Gaza, which also took place during the six weeks.

Second, issues in kickstarting the second phase of the ceasefire. The second phase of the ceasefire was to start from the first week of March, which would lead to a permanent ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. The second phase should also see the complete release of hostages by Hamas and further release of a specified number of prisoners by Israel. This phase should also result in the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. Israel’s conditions, Trump’s threats and Hamas’ reluctance have raised a question mark over the starting of the second phase of the ceasefire. Israel and the US have asked for an extension of the first phase of the ceasefire, before the second phase starts. Negotiations with Hamas started during mid-February on extending the first phase. The Wall Street Journal quoted a Hamas leader saying: “Extending the first phase depends on what is put on the table and the guarantees of the occupation’s commitment.” As on 6 March, there was no response from Hamas to the new Israeli-American proposal to extend the first phase, before starting the second phase.

Third, direct US-Hamas negotiations, and Trump’s threats. Since February 2025, the US and Hamas have been in direct contact, after their first meeting at Doha. According to reports available in the open domain, the US wants Hamas to release all the hostages including the Americans (one alive and four dead). Hamas wants a larger deal that includes a permanent end to the war, and the withdrawal of Israeli soldiers from Gaza. Trump has been threatening Hamas for the last two weeks that hell would break out if the latter fails to adhere to the deal. He has also proposed a plan to displace the Palestinians from Gaza and convert it into a Riviera of the Middle East. 
 
In perspective
First, the successful completion of the first phase of the ceasefire. Despite hiccups, Israel and Hamas completed the first phase of the ceasefire, which resulted in the release of 25 hostages and eight dead bodies by Hamas and more than 1900 Palestinian prisoners by Israel. But the real challenge is moving from the first phase to the second one. Both Israel and Hamas have been negotiating and blowing hot and cold. As on 6 March, the situation remains challenging, but not totally out of control. 

Second, stopping the war or military operations is easy. Converting a ceasefire to permanent peace across conflict theaters has always been a challenging task. The negotiations are continuing; both Israel and Hamas have taken the first step. They should now take the second.

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Ayan Datta, Nuha Aamina, Abhiruchi Chowdhury, Fleur Elizebeth Philip and C Shraddha

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Thailand deport 40 Uyghurs to Xinjiang
On 27 February, 40 Uyghurs were deported from Thailand to China’s Xinjiang region after being held in detention for ten years. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: “The repatriation was carried out by the laws of China and Thailand, international law and international practice.” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio condemned Thailand’s action and said: “As Thailand’s long-standing ally, we are alarmed by this action, which risks running afoul of its international obligations under the UN Convention Against Torture and the International Convention on the Protection of All Persons from Enforced Disappearance.” UN Special Rapporteur on Torture Alice Jill Edwards said: “The treatment of the Uygur minority in China is well-documented,” and that “We are concerned they are at risk of suffering irreparable harm.” 

Taiwan: Defence Ministry reports increased Chinese military drill near the southwest coast
On 27 February, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defence reported on a surge in Chinese military activity near the Island’s southwestern coast. They detected 45 Chinese military aircraft and 14 navy ships around the Island. They added that seven ships were detected in the China-declared drill zone, which is 40 nautical miles away from Taiwan. Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs calls on the international community to continue to pay attention to the security of the Taiwan Strait and the region, and to jointly condemn China's repeated and unilateral actions.” 

Taiwan: US opposes any Chinese attempt to change Taiwan’s status
On 27 February, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced that the US would defend Taiwan in any case of coercion by China to change Taiwan’s status. He stated: “We are against any forced, compelled, coercive change in the status of Taiwan." Rubio commented that the US wants to limit its reliance on China and enhance its domestic production capacity. He added that this is the reason why Trump is pushing for tariffs. Meanwhile, during a cabinet meeting on 27 February, Trump refused to comment on the US stance on Taiwan instead, replied: “I never comment on that. I don't comment on it because I don't want to ever put myself in that position,” and that he has a “great relationship” with Chinese President Xi Jinping.

North Korea: Missile drills in the Yellow Sea
On 28 February, Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported on North Korea’s missile launch drills in the west coast. The missiles reportedly hit the targets after travelling 1587 kilometers. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said that the tests proved the country’s battle readiness, ability to defend themselves with strategic weapons and a “reliable nuclear shield.” The Joint Chiefs of Staff of South Korea said: "Our military is closely monitoring various North Korean activities under the firm South Korea-US combined defense posture so that North Korea does not misjudge the current security situation." The launch took place ahead of the springtime military exercise between South Korea and the US, named Freedom Shield.

Japan: Wildfire in Iwate prefecture
On 1 March, the Japanese government announced that the wildfire in Ofunato, Iwate Prefecture spread to at least 1200 hectares. Japan’s Fire and Disaster Management Agency (FDMA) classified it as the largest forest fire in the country. One person died, more than 80 homes were burned, and over 3000 residents and 1300 households were evacuated. Fifteen helicopters have been deployed to fight the fire.

Australia: International law is the “touchstone” to China’s incursion into the Tasman Sea, comments Defence Minister
On 27 February, Australia’s Minister of Defence Richard Marles commented on Chinese warships in the Tasman Sea that the country’s “touchstone has to be international law.” Recently, Chinese warships intensified their drills in the Tasman Sea. It is being monitored by Australia and New Zealand. Australia’s opposition party accused the government of ignoring the issue. Marles requested calm from the public, stating that more Australian vessels are closer to China than vice versa. Opposition party leader, Peter Dutton said: “Let's remember that the Chinese government is supposed to be our comprehensive strategic partner, this is not how a comprehensive strategic partner, or a stabilized partner, should be treating Australia.” Australian Minister of Foreign Affairs Penny Wong responded that stabilization does not mean that China will halt its activities and accused the opposition of inciting inflammatory language. 

Myanmar: Arakan Army attack in Rakhine state
On 1 March, the Arakan Army attacked the military naval base in Kyaukphyu, Rakhine state. Kyaukphyu has several Chinese-backed projects, including oil and gas pipelines, a deep seaport, and a special economic zone, which remain under the military’s control. Both sides exchanged artillery fire and the military carried out air strikes, targeting ten villages. The Rakhine media reported military airstrikes in U-Kin, Kyan Chai, Saing Chong, Shauk Chaung, Si Maw, Kat Thabyay, and Pya Tae. The military dropped 500-pound bombs with fighter jets and Y-12 aircraft. This caused severe damage to civilian buildings.

Myanmar: Drones deployed in key battlelines
On 3 March 2025, Myanmar’s military deployed a large number of drones in the key battlelines, including in Bhamo of Kachin state, Taunghkam in Shan state and Asia’s highway between Myaywaddy and Kawkareik. It inflicted heavy casualties on resistance forces and civilians. The military has deployed drones to attack areas controlled by the Kachin Independence Army (KIA), including in its stronghold, Lazia. Further south, drone units are located in the junta garrison town of Pyin Oo Lwin, targeting the Ta’ang National Liberation Army. 

South Asia
Pakistan: 14 terrorists killed at the Afghanistan border
On 28 February, the security forces killed 14 terrorists at the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. One of them was “commander of the third battalion at Afghanistan’s National Military Academy. Previously, on 30 January, a terrorist hailing from Afghanistan was neutralized by security forces. He was a lieutenant in the Afghan army. Pakistan has, time and again, demanded the Taliban government to not provide terrorists a “safe haven.” Pakistan’s claims have been substantiated by a report to the UN Security Council by the UN’s Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team, which confirms the links between the Afghanistan government and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). 

Pakistan: Security forces kill 13 terrorists in North Waziristan
On 3 March, a skirmish between militants and security forces killed four security personnel and 13 militants in North Waziristan. There have been recurring assaults on security forces by militants in North Waziristan. Previously, on 24 February, an assault on a security checkpoint in North Waziristan killed four security personnel. 

Pakistan: Torkham remains closed amid border tensions
On 3 March, the Torkham border remained closed for the 11th consecutive day amid intensified clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan forces. According to The News International, three personnel sustained injuries during a cross-border firing. The residents fled their homes in the Bacha Maina village. On 2 March, eight people, including six security personnel, were injured after Pakistan and Taliban security forces exchanged fire at the border. Reuters quoted Afghanistan’s Ministry of Interior that one was killed and two others sustained injuries on the Taliban side. These developments come as the Torkham border was abruptly closed on 21 February after Afghanistan began construction activities along the border. Trade and cross-border activities have been halted following the clashes. 

Nepal: 6.1 magnitude earthquake hits Sindhupalchok
On 28 February, a 6.1 magnitude earthquake hit Nepal. Sindhupalchok, near Bhairavkunda, was its epicenter, according to the National Earthquake Monitoring and Research Centre. Tremors were felt in the Kathmandu valley and the southern and northern parts of Nepal. It damaged a few houses across seven districts and injured six people. 

Bangladesh: Rise in Bangladeshi asylum seekers in Europe, the EU report
On 3 March, the EU published a report titled "European Union Asylum Agency (EUAA)," showcasing the asylum trend in 2024. The report says that the number of applications by Bangladeshi nationals rose from 40,332 in 2023 to 43,236 in 2024. Although the report has not specified the reasons behind the surge, Bangladesh in 2024 was marked by political upheaval, leaving around 1,400 people dead and many injured. The largest application was to Italy, at 33,455. Despite the rise in applicants, the acceptance rate remains among the lowest, around four per cent, similar to the rate in 2023.

The Middle East and Africa
Israel: US to fast-track USD three billion arms sales 
On 28 February, the US Department of State informed the US Congress of its plans to sell approximately USD three billion in weapons to Israel. The sale would include thousands of bombs and nearly USD 295 million worth of armoured bulldozers that the Biden administration had blocked over human rights concerns. The arms package will include three separate sales worth USD 2.04 billion, USD 675.7 million and USD 295 million, to be completed between 2025 and 2028. The shipments will include heavy bombs, penetrator warheads, and JDAM guidance kits. The D9 caterpillar bulldozers, which Israeli authorities routinely use for clearing buildings and roads in Gaza and the West Bank, will begin reaching Israel in 2027. Furthermore, the Department of State notified that the transfers would not be subject to review by the House of Representatives and Senate Foreign Relations Committees. Previously, the Biden administration had also used the emergency basis provision to approve arms sales to Israel. The US Defence Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) informed that the US Secretary of State “has determined and provided detailed justification that an emergency exists that requires the immediate sale to the Government of Israel of the above defence articles and defence services in the national security interests of the United States, thereby waiving the Congressional review requirements.” 

Israel: Netanyahu and Klatz order IDF to defend Syrian Druze town
On 1 March, Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and Minister of Defence, Israel Katz, commanded the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) to defend a Druze village in southern Syria, which Tel Aviv claims is currently under attack from rebel forces based in Syria. Located on the outskirts of Damascus, the Druze-populated town of Jaramana has been targeted by the rebels. Outlining his commitment to defending Jaramana’s Druze, the two Israeli leaders stated: “We will not allow the terrorist regime of radical Islam in Syria to harm the Druze…If the regime harms the Druze, it will be harmed by us.” Furthermore, the IDF had offered Syrian Druze residents work permits in Israel during the daytime and return home in the evening. 

Lebanon: Aoun visits Saudi Arabia
On 4 March, Lebanon’s President Joseph Aoun visited Saudi Arabia and met the Kingdom’s Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman. In a joint statement, both sides reiterated their commitment to the Taif Agreement, which ended the Lebanese Civil War. Signed in 1989, the Taif Agreement called for the disarmament of all non-state armed groups in Lebanon (except Hezbollah, which was allowed to remain armed as an anti-Israel resistance force) and mutual coexistence between Lebanon’s various sects. During the meeting, the two parties emphasised the need to ensure Lebanon’s sovereignty and restrict weapons to the country, to end Hezbollah’s privileged status in the Taif Agreement. The joint statement supported the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) national role and called for Israel’s complete withdrawal from Lebanon. Furthermore, both leaders agreed to review the obstacles in resuming Lebanese exports to Saudi Arabia. Riyadh also reaffirmed its commitment to Lebanon’s economic reforms. In response, Aoun expressed appreciation for Saudi Arabia’s role in supporting Lebanon’s safety, institutional functioning, and other forms of assistance. 

Sudan: “Children as young as one” being raped, UNICEF report
On 4 March, the first detailed account on the impact of rape on the young children in Sudan was released by UNICEF. According to the report, rape victims include “children as young as one.” Since the beginning of 2024, 221 acts of rape against children have been reported. A third of them are boys and 16 victims are under the age of five. According to the report, the armed men attack the houses at night and “demand the girls be surrendered, raping some of them in front of their loved ones.”

Sudan: OCHA calls for immediate action from UNSC
On 27 February, the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) stated that the ongoing conflict in Sudan has “inflicted immense suffering and turned parts of the country into a hellscape.” According to OCHA Director of Operation and Advocacy, Edem Wosornu, 24.6 million Sudanese are facing acute hunger, with more than 12 million people being displaced. She added: “A collapse of health services. Millions of traumatised children cut off from formal education. Relentless patterns of sexual violence.” The continuous conflict has led to the suspension of operations at Zamzam, the largest displacement camp. She urged the UNSC to take immediate action to ensure all actors abide by international humanitarian law.

DR Congo: 11 killed in explosions during a rebel rally
On 27 February, two explosions struck the rebel rally in Bukavu. According to Al Jazeera, the explosion, along with the gun fires, killed 11 people. The attack followed the first public appearance of the leader of the Congo River Alliance, Corneille Nangaa, in Bukavu, following its capture. The identity of the attackers remains unclear.

The Sahel: “Epicentre of global terrorism,” the Global Terrorism Index report
On 5 March, the Global Terrorism Index (GTI) 2024 by the Institute for Economics and Peace was released. According to the report, the Sahel region is deemed to be the “epicentre of global terrorism,” with the region accounting for more than half of terrorism-related deaths. While global fatalities due to terrorism have declined from 2015 levels, it has multiplied tenfold since 2019 in the Sahel. It says that the Islamic State affiliates and al-Qaeda linked Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) are the two groups which have carried out the majority of the attacks. The GTI report attributes weak governance and political instability as the “primary driver of terrorism.”

Europe and the Americas
Ukraine: Belfast to manufacture 5000 air defence missiles
On 3 March, The Thales Arms Factory, Belfast, began manufacturing 5000 air defense missiles for Ukraine. According to the UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, this was discussed as part of the EUR 1.9 billion deal. A French-owned company, Thales, produces thousands of lightweight multirole-missiles, already used by Ukraine on the battlefield. This new deal marks a significant increase from the GBP 162 million deal for 650 missiles that the UK government has signed with Thales. Earlier, Starmer announced that the agreement was worth EUR 1.4 billion and additional EUR 605.5 million could be invested in the future. He said: “My support for Ukraine is unwavering. I am determined to find a way forward that brings an end to Russia’s illegal war and guarantees Ukraine a lasting peace based on sovereignty and security.”

Ukraine: North Korean troops sent to Russia to fight in the war 
On 7 February, South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) stated that North Korea has sent additional troops to fight the Ukrainian soldiers. In 2024, Kim Jong Un sent 12,000 troops to Russia. The North Korean troops who were deployed earlier are said to have struggled in Kursk because of their unfamiliarity with drones and warfare, and lack of combat experience. 

Italy: 112 migrants rescued in two operations
On 27 February, 112 migrants were rescued off the coast of Libya and have arrived in Tuscany, Italy. The migrants were from Bangladesh, Egypt, Somalia, and Syria. According to the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), at least 129 people, trying to reach Europe, have been recorded missing or dead in the Mediterranean in 2025. In 2024, the illegal immigration into Europe decreased by 38 per cent. However, later increased by 18 per cent in the Atlantic route between West Africa and the Canary Islands. The majority of the migrants come from Mauritania, which has become the primary point of departure for people attempting to reach Europe.

About the authors
Anu Maria Joseph and Padmashree Anandhan are Project Associates at NIAS. Femy Francis, Abhiruchi Chowdhury and Nuha Aamina are Research Assistants at NIAS. Fleur Elizebeth Philip is a Research Intern at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad. C Shraddha is a postgraduate student at Jindal Global University, Sonipat. Nova Karun is a postgraduate student at Pondicherry University.

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