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CWA # 1650
Conflict Weekly
Devastating Earthquake in Myanmar

  IPRI Team
3 April 2025

Conflict Weekly #274&275, 3 April 2025, Vol.6, No. 13 & 14
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Myanmar Earthquake: Poor Infrastructure, Raging Civil War, and Inadequate Global Support
Fleur Elizabeth Philip
 
In the news
On 28 March, a 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck the Sagaing region of Myanmar. The aftershocks killed 3700, injured 4515, and left 450 missing. On 28 March, according to Al Jazeera, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, and China felt the tremors from the earthquake. The death toll in Thailand currently stands at 20 people.

On 29 March, despite the earthquake, the military carried out aerial strikes in the Shan state, killing 1600 people. 

On 2 April, the military leader called for a temporary ceasefire until 22 April. The ceasefire came after the National Unity Government (NUG) on 28 April said that the anti-militia groups under its command would pause all offensives for two weeks. On 1 April, the Guardian quoted the Three Brotherhood Alliance that they would not initiate offensive operations for a month to allow rescue efforts but would engage in self-defense. 

On 30 March, the UN appealed for an urgent USD eight million amidst the worsening of the humanitarian crisis in the country. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies appealed for USD 115 million to help the earthquake victims and CHF 100 million to assist 100,000 people with life-saving relief and early recovery. 

On 30 March, the Secretary General of ASEAN, Kao Kim Horun, joined the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Cooperation of Timor-Leste, Bendito Freitas, to discuss ASEAN’s humanitarian aid to Myanmar and reaffirmed support to relief and recovery efforts.
 
Throughout the week, several countries have pledged humanitarian aid to Myanmar. China sent USD 13.9 million in emergency aid along with tents, blankets, and first aid kits. India sent a search and rescue team, medical professionals, and military transport aircraft filled with blankets, hygiene kits, and food packets. The US has pledged USD two million in aid through Myanmar-based humanitarian organizations. Vietnam has sent a team of more than 100 rescuers, medical staff, firefighters, and aid and sniffer dogs. South Korea is to provide USD two million in initial humanitarian aid through international organizations, and Thailand has sent 55 air force personnel, medics, rescue specialists, and medical supplies to Myanmar. 

Issues at large
First, Myanmar’s earthquake-prone geography. Myanmar is one of the most geologically active areas in the world because it is above the convergence of four tectonic plates- the Eurasian plate, the Indian plate, the Sunda plate, and the Burma microplate. This earthquake was one of the most powerful to strike Myanmar since the 1912 Burma earthquake and the 1930 Bago earthquake. 

Second, the civil war and its impact on the rescue operations. Although the military agreed to a ceasefire to promote relief efforts, many are skeptical of the ceasefire and fear that aid will be taken as an opportunity to gain control in several regions. During the 2008 cyclone Nargaris, the military blocked aid and imposed uncompromising restrictions on the relief efforts. In the 2023 cyclone Mocha, the military was deemed slow and inadequate in their response to the rescue, resulting in 145 deaths.

Third, infrastructural and technological limitations. The political crisis due to the ongoing civil war has brought the infrastructure, healthcare, and power systems to their knees. Myanmar lacks advanced early warning systems for earthquakes and was unprepared for relief efforts. The Mandalay General Hospital is the city’s main medical facility and has around 1000 beds but has received more than 2000 patients. With the high temperatures in Mandalay, hundreds of patients are being treated in the hospital parking area. 

Fourth, limited global responses. China and India have good relations with Myanmar and are actively providing aid. Despite the US’s humanitarian aid, European and East Asian countries, except for South Korea, did not respond to the earthquake. Myanmar has a bitter relationship with the West because of the military rule, allegations of human rights violations, the Rohingya crisis, sanctions imposed by the West, and war crimes. This has hindered substantial responses from the West. 
 
In perspective
First, the slow pace in response due to delayed and restricted access to affected areas would likely lead to an increase in casualties. The increasing number of death toll is also attributed to weak infrastructure in the rural areas. Many buildings are not maintained according to building codes and cannot withstand earthquakes, risking collapse. This has significantly affected the high population density areas. Myanmar lacks a definitive disaster management system that provides warnings, drills, and awareness to the public and effectively prepares and responds to emergencies. 

Second, the deep-rooted conflict, distrust between conflict actors and restrictions to affected areas have made the relief efforts challenging. Additionally, the complicated relationship between Myanmar, and international organizations and the West imply the weak relief efforts.

NIAS Conflict Tracker
Where, When and What

Pakistan: Continuing conflict in Balochistan
In Pakistan, during the last week, the conflict in Balochistan witnessed protests over the arrest of Baloch activists. Following the arrests of Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) leaders and activists, the Mengal faction of the BNP started a sit-in, demanding their release. Despite three rounds of negotiations during the week, a delegation from the provincial government failed to reach an agreement with Sardar Akhtar Mengal, the chief of the BNP-M. He has warned of a “Long March” to the provincial capital Quetta.

Gaza: Israel's continuing offensive and Netanhyahu's visit to Hungary
In Gaza, during the last week, violence continued. Air strikes continued in the region. During the week, in southern Gaza, Israel issued a warning to evacuate Rafah with an impending military operation. There are also reports, indicating a military operation in the north as well. Outside Israel, on 3 April, Hungary announced to withdraw from the ICC, so that it could host PM Benjamin Netanyahu. The latter has arrived in Budapest for a state visit. Hungary’s PM Victor Orban said: “I’d like to confirm that Israel can count on Hungary in the future as the impenetrable European bastion of the Judeo-Christian culture.”

Sudan: SAF recaptures Khartoum
In Sudan, on 26 March, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) announced recapturing the capital Khartoum. The SAF leader Abdel Fattah al Burhan announced: "Khartoum is Free." The SAF has successfully pushed the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) out of Khartoum. Several media houses have gained access to Khartoum. Videos of people celebrating SAF's victory were posted on social media.

The SAF's victory in Khartoum came after its capture of the presidential palace on 22 March. The capture of the palace was a strategic and symbolic victory for the SAF. Strategically, the palace is situated at the centre of the capital. Symbolically, it represents power and legitimacy.

Although the SAF, which is closer to claims of being a legitimate government in Sudan, has regained its control in Khartoum, the RSF's stronghold in Darfur and Kordofan regions raise concerns of the RSF establishing a parallel government with the regions under its control.

Ethiopia: Increasing fears of another conflict
In Ethiopia, on 22 March, Al Jazeera reported that the Ethiopian troops killed more than 300 members of the Amhara ethnic militia, Fano. The military claimed that the Fano militia was carrying out attacks in the region. The group was an ally of Ethiopian federal forces during the conflict in Tigray. However, it fell apart after Ethiopian President Abiy Ahmed demanded that all ethnic militias integrate into the federal forces.

Meanwhile, tensions have been increasing between Ethiopia and Eritrea. The reasons are the alleged presence of Eritrean troops in Tigray, Eritrea's support to a TPLF faction in Tigray, which recently triggered a political struggle, and Eritrea's speculation on Ethiopia trying to gain access to the Red Sea by force. On 20 March, Abiy Ahmed responded to the increasing speculations: "Our intention is to negotiate based on the principle of give and take. What the Eritrean people need is development, not conflict. Our plan is not to fight but to work together and grow together."

South Sudan: Unmiss warns of another civil war
In South Sudan, on 26 March, South Sudanese forces detained First Vice-President Reik Machar. His party, the Sudan People's Liberation Movement In Opposition (SPLM/IO), responded that the arrest had collapsed the 2018 peace deal, which ended the five-year civil war. The UN Mission in South Sudan has warned of another "war."

Tensions have been increasing between Machar and President Salva Kiir, two political rivals who led the 2013-2018 civil war. The escalating tensions erupted after two forces loyal to the rival political leadership clashed in the state of Upper Nile. 

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Ayan Datta, Nuha Aamina, Abhiruchi Chowdhury, Nova Karun and Fleur Elizabeth Philip 

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: SOEs instructed to halt business with Hong Kong-based Li Ka-shing’s firm
On 27 March, Bloomberg reported that China asked its SOEs to halt dealings with Hong Kong-based business head Li Ka-Shing and his family over the sale of its shares in the Panama Port to US-based firm BlackRock. Hong Kong firm is accused of being manipulated by the US. China's Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office criticized this deal of harming China’s national interest and giving in under US pressure. US President Donald Trump lauded the transaction as he wanted to retrieve control of the Panama Canal.

China: Taiwan Affairs Office reports 323 alleged Taiwan secessionist activities
On 27 March, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council informed that the newly launched online platform received 323 tips related to Taiwan secessionist activities. The office spokesperson, Chen Binhua, stated that these included influential Taiwanese political figures, sponsors and influencers. Chen said: “Their egregious activities, such as suppression of the opposition party through baseless charges, intimidation to dissolve organizations in support of China's reunification and blatant infringement on the legitimate rights and interests of mainland-born spouses residing in Taiwan, are exposed in the emails.” He added that the authorities will consider the facts and hold the perpetrators accountable.

China: Installs long-range bombers near Scarbrough Shoal, reports Reuters
On 28 March, Reuters reported that China deployed two long-range bombers near the contested Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. The Philippines National Security Council have not responded yet. The H-6 bombers were captured in satellite imagery by Maxar Technologies. It showed two aircraft on the east of Scarbrough Shoal. “The bombers' second message could be you (the United States) have the potential for long range strike; so do we, and in larger numbers. Clearly not serendipity,” says Peter Layton from Australia's Griffith Asia Institute. The bomber, a Soviet-era design, has been remodeled for anti-ship and land attack cruise missiles, capable of launching nuclear ballistic missiles. 

China: PLA Eastern Command launches joint exercises near Taiwan
On 1 April, CCTV reported that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command began joint exercises involving the army, navy, air, and rocket forces “closing in” on Taiwan in “multiple directions.” PLA spokesperson Shi Yi described the drills as a “stern warning and forceful deterrent” against “Taiwan independence” separatist forces and are considered a “legitimate and necessary” action to safeguard China’s sovereignty and national unity. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense condemned the move as disrupting the “status quo” and announced that military vessels and aircraft have been deployed to counter the threats. 

China: Beijing slams US lawmaker’s request for information on Chinese students in US
On 21 March, China urged the US to halt discriminatory practices against Chinese students, citing a national security threat. This comes after a US congressional panel and the Chair of the House Select Committee, John Moolenaar, requested the universities of Standford, Carnegie Mellon and four others for detailed information on Chinese students enrolled. The panel believes the Chinese government has embedded researchers in US institutes to access sensitive technology. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Mao Ning, said: “This is in the interest of both parties. We urge the U.S. to stop overstretching the concept of national security, effectively protect the legitimate rights and interests of Chinese students, and not impose discriminatory restrictive measures on Chinese students.” Mao noted that Chinese students account for one-quarter of all international students and that this has promoted economic prosperity and technological developments in both countries. 

China: PLA using DeepSeek for non-combat support, reports SCMP
On 23 March, SCMP reported that China’s People’s Liberation Army uses DeepSeek for a non-combat support function. The report says that DeepSeek’s LLM model is used at PLA hospitals and the People’s Armed Police. Central Theater Command announced the “embedded deployment” of the R1-70B LLM model to support doctors by suggesting treatment plans. They are also used at the elite PLA General Hospital or “301 Hospital,” where senior officials receive treatment. The paramilitary forces under the Chinese Central Military Commission are using the app for daily physical training and psychological counseling. PLA has plans to utilise AI for defence purposes.

China: New rules to implement anti-foreign sanctions law 
On 24 March, China’s Premier Li Qiang signed an order to execute new rules to strengthen countermeasures against foreign sanctions. The rules concern the implementation of the anti-foreign sanctions law passed in 2021. According to the new rules, any firm, entity, or individual who is involved in discriminatory measures against Chinese firms or citizens will be added to China’s anti-sanctions list. Those on the list will be denied entry and expelled from China. The assets of the deported individuals or firms will be frozen or even seized, and they will be restricted from doing any business in China. The restriction will be on education, science and technology, legal services, trade, culture, sports, tourism and the health sector.

China: 33rd WMCC meeting with India on border cooperation
On 25 March, China and India met for the 33rd Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination (WMCC) meeting to discuss the border disputes. The meeting discussed the early resumption of cross-border cooperation and exchanges, focusing on the Kailash Mansarovar Yatra and the transborder rivers. Both sides agreed to work towards the next Special Representatives meeting in India by the end of this year. India’s Ministry of External Affairs stated: “The two sides explored various measures and proposals to give effect to the decisions taken during the 23rd meeting of the Special Representatives on the India-China boundary question in Beijing in December 2024 and to advance effective border management.” The meeting was attended by the Indian delegation headed by Joint Secretary (East Asia) Gourangalal Das and China’s Director General of the Boundary and Oceanic Affairs, Hong Liang. This comes after China and India agreed to the disengagement in Demchok and Depsang choke points.

Taiwan: Navy ship collides with a Chinese fishing boat
On 27 March, the Taiwanese Navy reported that its Chung Ho-class tank landing ship LST-232 collided with the China-registered fishing boat, Min Lien Yu 61756, 45 nautical miles off the Port of Taichung. The Taiwanese vessel sustained unspecified damage that did not compromise navigational safety. No injuries were reported on either vessel. The Taiwanese Coast Guard dispatched two patrol vessels to collect evidence. 

Taiwan: China’s plans to invade Taiwan, US intelligence report
On 20 March, the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) released a report titled “Wealth and Corrupt Activities of the Leadership of the Chinese Communist Party.” According to the report, up to 65 per cent of all government officials in China accept bribes or engage in graft. Xi Jinping started an anti-corruption campaign in 2012, when he came to power, and nearly five million officials have been found guilty of bribery since. The campaign has targeted corruption within the PLA, including the “culture of pay-for-promotion,” expelling figures such as General Li Shangfu in 2023 and Admiral Miao Hua in 2024 for party discipline violations. The US intelligence report claims that President Xi Jinping’s campaign to end corruption in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) was meant to modernise the military and prepare to invade Taiwan by 2027. 

South Korea: Increasing concern over potential diversion of USFK despite looming North Korean threats
On 1 April, an op-ed in the Korea Herald claimed that South Korea is concerned over a potential shift in the role of the 28,500 US troops stationed in the country despite increasing nuclear and missile threats from North Korea. The article says that these worries were exacerbated after President Donald Trump’s return to office in January. There is speculation that the second Trump administration may divert some US Forces Korea (USFK) resources to defend Taiwan against threats from China, leaving South Korea more vulnerable to North Korean provocations. Director of External Cooperation at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses Yu Ji-hoon was quoted saying: “There are growing concerns over the potential scenario that Washington would leverage part of the US Forces stationed on the Korean Peninsula for broader regional security roles rather than limiting their role to deterring the North.” Recent developments, including South Korea being placed on the US Department of Energy’s Sensitive and Other Designated Countries List and US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth omitting South Korea from his latest Indo-Pacific itinerary, have further fueled these concerns. 

South Korea: Wildfires claim 26 lives and burn 36,009 hectares of land
On 27 March, the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters reported that the wildfires in South Korea’s southeastern region have claimed at least 26 lives and injured 30 people since 14 March. Authorities estimated that 36,009 hectares had been damaged across ten regions, with the largest fire in northern North Gyeongsang Province, burning about 33,204 hectares. In total, 37,185 residents have been evacuated, and 325 facilities, including homes, factories, and the historic site of Gounsa Temple, built in 681 ADS, have been destroyed. The Korea Forest Service stated that fires in North Gyeongsang Province were 44.3 per cent contained, with varying containment rates in different areas. 

North Korea: Additional 3000 military troops sent to Russia, informs the South Korean JCS
On 27 March, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) reported that North Korea dispatched at least 3,000 additional soldiers to Russia in January and February, adding to the approximately 11,000 soldiers previously sent. The JCS noted that North Korea continues to supply missiles, ammunition, and artillery equipment to Russia, including short-range ballistic missiles, 220 170mm self-propelled howitzers, and 240mm rocket launchers. The JCS added that North Korea appears to be making technological upgrades to launch another military spy satellite. South Korea’s JCS added that it is closely monitoring possible provocations, including launches of a solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile, a hypersonic missile, and a submarine-launched ballistic missile. 

North Korea: Test-fires multiple surface-to-air missiles
On 20 March, the Korean Central News Agency reported that North Korea’s Missile Administration test-fired latest surface-to-air missile system from the western port city of Nampho. The test of the mass-produced missile system demonstrated the anti-aircraft missiles combat-fast response as “advantageous” and “highly reliable.” Kim stated that the army will have “another major defense weapons system with laudable combat performance.” 

North Korea: Warns Japan against deployment of long-range missiles in Kyushu
On 20 March, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that North Korea warned Japan against its recent deployment of long-range missiles in the Kyushu region. Kyodo News reported that Japan deployed these missiles to acquire “counterstrike capabilities” during emergencies. Pyongyang accused Tokyo of continuous aggression by strengthening the Japan-US military alliance and collusion with NATO forces. The KCNA stated: “All military means and various forms of movement directly targeting North Korea are an object to be wiped out.” In February, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un warned that trilateral military cooperation among the US, Japan, and South Korea was raising regional tensions and vowed countermeasures, including further nuclear development.

South Korea: Wildfires kill 18
On 26 March, South Korea’s acting President and Prime Minister, Han Duck-soo, commented: “We are confronting the worst wildfire in our history using all available personnel and equipment, but the situation is not looking good.” Han reported that 128 helicopters, 1,144 military personnel, 3,135 firefighters, 1,186 fire suppression specialists, and 4,652 public officials have been deployed. Strong winds have hindered containment, allowing the fire to consume 17,000 hectares of forest and destroy 209 homes and factories. At least 18 people have died, and 19 have been injured, with over 20,000 residents evacuated as the blaze, which began in the Uiseong-gun region of North Gyeongsang Province, spread eastward to several towns and cities. 

Japan: 900 hectares of land burned in wildfire 
On 27 March, the Japan Times reported that wildfires in Ehime and Okayama prefectures have burned over 900 hectares of land. In Ehime city of Imabari, 417 hectares had been burned, while the fire in the city of Okayama swept through 559 hectares. The Ehime Prefectural Government designated Imabari and its neighboring Saijo as eligible for aid under the disaster relief law. Evacuation orders were issued for 3,848 households in Imabari and 1,091 households in Okayama.

Japan: Joint naval drills with the US and the Philippines in the South China Sea
On 28 March, the US, Japan, and the Philippines conducted joint naval drills near the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea as part of the “Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity.” According to Philippine Navy Commander Irvin Ian Robles, a Chinese frigate attempted to approach the area but was warned off by a Philippine frigate via radio. The drills involved the BRP Jose Rizal, the US Navy guided-missile destroyer DDG Shoup, and the Japanese multi-mission frigate JS Noshiro, with US and Philippine helicopters and a speedboat used for inter-vessel discussions. US Navy Lt. Alexander Horvath stated: “We are here to support our allies and support a free and open Indo-Pacific for everyone.” Armed Forces of the Philippines Chief of Staff Gen. Romeo Brawner Jr. noted that the exercises improved coordination, tactics, and maritime awareness, reinforcing allied security cooperation against Chinese assertiveness in the disputed sea. 

Japan: Protests China misquoting Prime Minister Ishiba
On 24 March, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi protested China’s false reporting and misquoting of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s remarks during a meeting with the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Wang Yi. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs claimed that Ishiba affirmed that Japan “respects” China’s positions. Wang Yi said that Japan should “fulfill important political commitments on historical issues and the Taiwan question” and send “the right signal to the world with a responsible attitude towards history, the people and the future.” Japan responded that no such statements were made. Hayashi noted that it is regrettable that a non-factual statement was issued.

Japan: Wildfires in Okayama and Ehime
On 24 March, regional authorities ordered 2,800 residents to evacuate as wildfires in Okayama and Ehime prefectures continued to spread despite overnight firefighting efforts. Ground Self-Defense Force helicopters were deployed. On 23 March, a fire broke out and burned 250 hectares across Okayama and Tamano. The blaze in Ehime engulfed 119 hectares in Imabari. Several houses in Okayama have been destroyed, although no injuries have been reported. 

Japan: Chinese Coast Guard ship stays near Senkaku Islands for a record time
On 23 March, the Japanese Coast Guard (JCG) reported that Chinese Coast Guard (CCG) vessels entered Japanese territorial waters off the Senkaku Islands in Okinawa Prefecture. Their continuous stay surpassed the previous record of 80 hours and 36 minutes. The JCG’s 11th regional headquarters in Naha reported that two vessels entered on 20 March and two more entered on 21 March, with two vessels remaining on 23 March. Two of the vessels were equipped with naval guns.

Singapore: Four Dutch nationals to pay fines over the oil spill
On 2 April, four Dutch crew members on the Netherlands-flagged Dredger Vox Maxima classed with Singapore’s Marine Honour, which caused the oil spill in June 2024, were imposed fines of USD 40,000 each. Merjin Heidema, Eric Peijpers, Richard Ouwehand, and Martin Hans Sinke were responsible for the spill. They pleaded guilty to the charge under the Merchant Shipping Act 1995 and admitted to failing to discharge duties properly. The oil spill spread to the coastlines of the East Coast Park, Labrador Nature Reserve, Sentosa, and the Johor coastline in Kota Tinggi.

Myanmar: 11 killed in military air strikes on a makeshift medical camp
On 24 March, the Strait Times reported on the Myanmar military air strike on a medical clinic, killing 11 people. The strike was carried out on 22 March, hitting the village of Hnan Khar, west of Magway, which is under the control of the resistance forces.

South Asia
India: Clashes with Pakistan and militants in Jammu and Kashmir
On 1 April, The Hindu reported on a mine blast in Krishnaghati along the Line of Control (LoC) in Poonch, Jammu and Kashmir. No casualties were reported. On 2 April, the Economic Times reported that the Pakistan Army fired at Indian positions in the Krishna Ghati (KG) sector of Poonch. The Indian Army responded with brief firing. It followed a warning from the Indian Army, urging Pakistan to abide by the tenets of the Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMO) understanding of 2021 to maintain peace at the LoC. On the same day, India resumed a seek-and-destroy operation in the Pannjthirthi-Barota forest area following the gunfight between police and militants on 31 March. These militants are suspected of belonging to the same group that illegally crossed India’s international border with Pakistan on 23 March. On 27 March, four Indian policemen and two militants were killed, and three others sustained injuries during an anti-militant operation against the same group. According to official sources, the group was en route to the upper areas of the Doda Kishtwar belt in Chenab Valley to set up bases before summer.

India: Anti-dumping duties imposed on Chinese products
On 23 March, The Economic Times reported that India imposed anti-dumping duties on four Chinese products, including soft ferrite cores, vacuum-insulated flasks, aluminum foil, and trichloro isocyanuric acid. This was announced by India’s Central Board of Indirect Taxes and Customs, Department of Revenue. The board noted that duties would be levied for the next five years. They imposed USD 276 per ton in imports. The imposed duties are aimed to ensure a level playing field for domestic producers. The duties were imposed on the recommendation of the Directorate General of Trade Remedies, which is the investigative arm of India’s Ministry of Commerce.

Pakistan: Five people killed by armed men on the Gwadar highway
On 27 March, Dawn reported that at least five people were killed by an armed group along the Gwadar highway. Many heavy vehicles loaded with goods, including three body trailers carrying urea from Afghanistan and the Gwadar port, were torched by the group that blocked the highway. The roads to Turbat, Panjgur, Pasni, Bolan, Kolpur and Mastung were blocked. A levies personnel vehicle was set on fire in the Mastung area as they arrived to clear the roads blocked by militants. Separately, four people were killed in Kalmat after they were offloaded from a passenger bus traveling to Karachi. An official from the local administration said: “Armed men killed four passengers after checking their ID cards and took away three others.” The four killed were from Punjab. 

Pakistan: Amnesty International voices concerns against the government’s plan to forcefully repatriate Afghan refugees
On 27 March, Dawn reported on the Amnesty International voicing concerns against Pakistan’s plan to repatriate Afghan refugees after the deadline of 31 March. As per Amnesty International, forceful repatriation would aggravate the distress of Afghan refugees. The group stated: “Pakistani government’s unyielding and cruel deadline shows little respect for international human rights law, particularly the principle of non-refoulement.” The regional director for South Asia at Amnesty International stated that it was unfair to label Afghan refugees as a “menace” for the Pakistani cities of Islamabad and Rawalpindi. She said: “The Government of Pakistan is only making a scapegoat of a community that has been fleeing prosecution.” 

Pakistan: Security forces neutralize 11 militants in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
On 28 March, Dawn reported that on 26 and 27 March, in four different military operations, 11 militants were neutralized in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. As per Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), an intelligence-based operation was initiated by the security forces in Mir Ali, North Waziristan. The security forces killed five militants in the operation. A separate operation was launched by the security forces in the same region, where they managed to neutralize three militants. Separately, skirmishes took place between security forces and militants in Miramshah. The security force killed two assaulters. Another skirmish between security forces and militants occurred in Dera Ismail Khan, where one militant was neutralized. Security forces have confiscated “weapons and ammunitions” from the neutralized militants. The ISPR further informed that operations have been launched to root out terrorists in the region. 

Pakistan: Bomb blast in Quetta kills three civilians
On 27 March, a bomb blast took place along roads of Quetta. The blast killed three people and wounded 21. As per security officials, militants wanted to target a “police mobile.” Among the people who were wounded, four were police officers. Police informed that the blast was “detonated” using “remote control.” No militant group has claimed responsibility for the attack. President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Shehbaz Sherif condemned the attack. Zardari said: “Such reprehensible actions during the blessed month of Ramadan reflect the sinister motives of terrorists.” Separately, 14 people lost their lives in several attacks which took place across Balochistan. 

Pakistan: Calls for the release of Mahrang Baloch and other BYC members continues
On 31 March, a fresh demand for the release of Baloch Yakjehti Committee (BYC) leader Sammi Deen Baloch was put forth by the civil society in Karachi on the occasion of Eidul Fitr. In a press conference, Sammi’s sister, Mehlab Deen Baloch called out the government’s alleged unlawful detention of Sammi and others and said: “Despite the court order for [Mahrang and others’] release, […] they were put behind bars again under MPO3 for 30 days on the directives of the PPP’s [Sindh] government.” She accused the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of hypocrisy. She said that on one side, the PPP bats for women’s rights and on the other, it is “not ready to give those rights to Baloch women.” Sammi and five others were detained on 24 March while protesting against the BYC Chief Organizer Dr Mahrang Baloch’s arrest and violating Section 144. Subsequently, the judicial magistrate ordered Sammi and other detainees’ release; however, she was detained again under the Maintenance of Public Order (MPO) ordinance for 30 days. In response, protest rallies and sit-ins were organized in various places in Balochistan.

Separately, on the same day, BNP-M President Sardar Akhtar Mengal reiterated that the sit-in organized by his party demanding the release of arrested BYC leaders would not be called off. On 28 March, people from different political parties marched from Wadh and subsequently met with “police action” near Mastang. According to Mengal, 250 of its activists were detained. On 29 March, a “provincial government delegation” reached Mastang to urge Mengal to call off the sit-in, however, the latter refused. Speaking about the meeting, Mengal revealed that the delegation discussed “cooperation and finding a way.”

Pakistan: Security forces neutralize 16 militants attempting to trespass Afghanistan-Pakistan border
On 23 March, security forces neutralized 16 militants attempting to trespass the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. The incident took place in Ghulam Khan Kallay in North Waziristan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) criticized the Taliban government in Afghanistan for not being able to manage the border effectively. ISPR stated: “Pakistan has consistently been asking the interim Afghan government to ensure effective border management on their side of the border.” Previously, the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa government formulated a jirga to discuss contentious issues with the Taliban government. However, it has yet to receive a positive response from the federal government. Pakistan’s special envoy to Afghanistan, Muhammad Sadiq, highlighted how “peace and progress in Afghanistan” is extremely crucial for “regional stability.” In his address at the Pakistan’s embassy in Afghanistan, he stressed how the “economic interests” of Pakistan and Afghanistan are intertwined.

Pakistan: BNP-M to convene Balochistan Conference on security situation in the province
On 24 March, Dawn reported on the Balochistan National Party-Mengal (BNP-M) convening a “Balochistan conference” post-Eid. The party announced that it would “observe three black days” to “protest” the recent arrest of BYC leader Mahrang Baloch and several others. The BNP-M leadership highlighted the dire state of security in Balochistan. BNP-M calls for the release of imprisoned individuals who they claim were not guilty of any crime. Further, the party alleged that the unidentified bodies in the burial grounds of Quetta have caused panic among people who have filed “missing persons” cases. The BNP-M leaders alleged human rights violations including “house searches, violation of privacy,” and the shutting down of “educational institution.”

Bangladesh: Depletion and extinction of 79 rivers, study by RDRC 
On 20 March, a Daily Star reported on a study by the Rivers and Delta Research Centre (RDRC) titled "Dried Up Rivers of Bangladesh.” Data gathered from government reports, academic papers, and newspapers revealed that at least 79 of 1,156 rivers flowing in Bangladesh have or are likely to dry up soon. Upstream water diversions and dams have altered the natural flow of rivers. The local biodiversity, agriculture, and livelihoods would be affected. The study emphasized the need for reducing pollution, restoring ecosystems, and preventing erosion. The report commented: “Bangladesh cannot solve this problem alone. Since these rivers flow through multiple countries, cooperation with upstream neighbors is essential.”

Bangladesh: Army rejects claims of Awami League’s reinstatement 
On 23 March, the Bangladesh Army rejected allegations by the student-led National Citizen Party (NCP) that the military was plotting to rehabilitate a “refined” Awami League. The party staged protests at Dhaka University, chanting slogans against the army chief and Sheikh Hasina. They demanded that Hasina and her “cohorts” be hanged after a trial. On 22 March, NCP asserted non-interference of the military in post-revolution Bangladesh’s political landscape. In response, military headquarters described the statements as “a political stunt” and deemed them “hilarious and an immature array of stories.”

Bhutan: Illegal imprisonment of Nepali Bhutanese
On 21 March, the South China Morning Post reported the illegal life imprisonment of Nepali Butanese for expressing political opinions in Bhutan. In “Opinion No. 60/2024,” the UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention divulged the arrest of three Nepali Bhutanese on grounds of “their political opinion and status as members of a linguistic minority.” They were tagged as “anti-nationals” and taken into custody under the National Security Act. The report highlighted that the trio was arrested while distributing pamphlets against the Bhutanese government’s “discriminatory” policies. This is not an isolated incident, as the government has expelled the ethnic Nepali Bhutanese since the late 1980s. 

Nepal: Pro-monarchist protests turn violent
On 28 March, Kathmandu Post reported on two mass demonstrations in Nepal. One was led by pro-monarchy forces and the other by the Socialist Front. The pro-monarchy protests at Tinkune near Koteshwar turned violent, killing two people and injuring 45 others. The Front’s leaders peacefully concluded their demonstrations in Bhrikutimandap. The police used tear gas, water cannons, and rubber bullets to prevent the pro-monarch protestors from entering prohibited areas. Many protesters resorted to arson, vandalism, and looting of public and private property. It followed the arrest of 51 pro-monarchy protesters and leaders on 29 March. Nepal’s Minister of Home Ramesh Lekhak announced steps to curb pro-monarchy and pro-Hindu protests arising from deep divisions after the violent episode.

The Middle East and Africa
Syria: Al-Sharaa appoints 23-member government
On 29 March, Syria’s Transitional President Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly known by his Al-Nusra Front alias Abu Mohammed al-Jolani) appointed a transitional government of 23 ministers. Al-Sharaa retained some of his colleagues from the earlier caretaker government, including Murhaf Abu Qasra and Assad al-Shibani, as defence and foreign ministers. While including several of his allies, the government was comprised of several minority community members. The cabinet includes Yarub Badr, an Alawite, as minister of transport, and Druze leader Amgad Badr, as agriculture minister. Additionally, Hind Kabawat, a Syrian Christian and longtime Assad opponent, was appointed social affairs and labour minister. She is also the first and so far the only woman to be appointed by al-Sharaa. Furthermore, al-Sharaa established a ministry for emergencies and disasters, which will be led by Read al-Saleh. al-Saleh is a leader of the US-backed White Helmets group.

Israel: IDF advances into southern Gaza, creating a new security corridor across the enclave
On 2 April, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) were advancing into the Gaza Strip to create a new security corridor across the southern section of the enclave. According to Minister of Defence Israel Katz, IDF troops would clear large sections “of terrorists and infrastructure and capture extensive territory that will be added to the State of Israel’s security areas.” The move has two aims: cutting the city of Rafah from the rest of the Strip and pressuring Hamas to release its remaining hostages without releasing further prisoners from Israeli jails. Netanyahu named the security corridor after Morag — the Israeli settlement that existed along the IDF’s current path and was evacuated during Israel’s 2005 withdrawal from Gaza. The Israeli leader launched the ground assault after allocating an additional division into southern Gaza and launching heavy airstrikes in the Strip, in which over 50 Hamas sites were targeted. Meanwhile, the IDF has reasserted control over the Netzarim Corridor that severs the enclave’s northern section, especially Gaza City, from the rest of the Strip. Making his intentions explicit, the Prime Minister stated: “We are now cutting off the Strip, and we are increasing the pressure step by step… so they will give us our hostages. The longer they refuse to give them up, the more the pressure will increase until they do.” 

Lebanon: Katz declares Israel’s border presence indefinite
On 2 April, Israel’s Minister of Defence, Israel Katz, reiterated that the IDF would remain indefinitely in its five strategic positions in Lebanon’s border areas since Lebanon’s government had not dismantled Hezbollah. Speaking to The Times of Israel, he stated: “We are here without a time limit…as long as…Hezbollah does not withdraw beyond the Litani (River), does not disarm, and the Lebanese army does not enforce (its duty to dismantle Hezbollah), we are here to provide protection.” Calling the IDF presence a “security strip,” Katz added that the Israeli troop presence gave confidence to the residents of Israeli border communities, who were previously displaced by constant Hezbollah bombardment. The presence is additionally aimed at deterring any future attacks from the Lebanese armed group. Under the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, Israel had previously agreed to withdraw fully from southern Lebanon. 

The War in Gaza: Israeli air strikes across Gaza kill Hamas leaders
On 27 March, a Hamas spokesperson, Abdel-Latif al-Qanoua, was killed in an airstrike in the northern city of Jabalia in Gaza. Since 18 March, Israel has been carrying out a series of bombings and ground offensives in Gaza after the end of a two-month fragile ceasefire. The renewed offensives are part of Israel's attempt to pressure Hamas into releasing the remaining 59 hostages. On 23 March, Israel carried out an air strike on the Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis, southern Gaza, killing five people, including the head of finances and institutions of Hamas's political office, Ismail Barhoum. On the same day, an Israeli fighter jet bombed tents of displaced Palestinians in Khan Younis, killing Hamas leader Salah al-Bardaweeland, a member of the Palestinian Legislative Council. According to Al Jazeera, 830 people have been killed since 18 March. 

The War in Gaza: Anti-war and anti-Hamas protests
On 26 March, hundreds of Palestinians began protesting in northern Gaza, demanding an end to the war and chanting "Hamas out." One of the protesters commented: "Hamas is not taking us into account. It has 2 million people in Gaza who need to live." Another protester said: "People are fed up with displacement. There are no more safe places for people to go. So people spontaneously went to the streets and demanded the fall of Hamas rule in Gaza, to surrender. People want to live in peace and security. We want to live in freedom, we don't want Hamas. We're done, we're tired." The anti-Hamas and anti-war protests erupted after Israel's renewed offensive. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu commented on the protest: "We have seen something the likes of which we have never seen. We saw large, open protests in the Gaza Strip against Hamas rule. More and more Gazans understand that Hamas brings them destruction and doom. That is important. All this shows that our policy works."

Israel: Anti-government protests against Netanyahu's war policies and corruption
Since 18 March, anti-government protests have been ongoing in Israel. The protests intensified after Netanyahu removed Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin Bet internal security agency. Bar was removed after Shin Bet began a corruption investigation against Netanyahu's office, citing a lack of trust. Bar's removal came despite the Supreme Court's freeze following several appeals. Israeli opposition leader Yair Lapid called for a “revolt” against Netanyahu for disobeying the court. Meanwhile, on 26 March, Netanyahu accused the opposition of fuelling "anarchy" and stated: “You recycle the same worn-out and ridiculous slogans about ‘the end of democracy’. Well, once and for all: Democracy is not in danger; it is the power of the bureaucrats that is in danger.”

Syria: Israeli attack on Koya kills six people
On 25 March, Al Jazeera reported that at least six people were killed in an Israeli attack on Koya in southern Syria. Israeli military said that it was responding after armed fighters opened fire against Israeli troops. Syria’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs condemned: “The continued Israeli aggression on Syrian territory, which saw a dangerous escalation in the village of Kuwayya in the Deraa province.” The ministry has called for an international investigation into the Israeli attacks, describing them as a "blatant violation of its sovereignty."

Sudan: Updates on the war
On 26 March, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) took control of the capital, Khartoum. The SAF leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan reached Khartoum and announced: "Khartoum is free." The announcement came after the SAF captured the Khartoum airport and the paramilitary, Rapid Support Forces (RSF), fled the city. This major development came after the SAF recaptured the presidential palace on 21 March, marking a major victory since the war began. Meanwhile, on 25 March, the SAF was blamed by a pro-democracy network, Emergency Lawyers, for an attack on a marker in North Darfur, killing dozens of civilians, according to Al Jazeera. However, the SAF denied the allegations, describing it as "incorrect" and commenting that the army exercises its “constitutional and legal right to deal with hostile targets."

South Sudan: UN mission warns of a return of civil war
On 27 March, the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) warned of a return to the "state of war" following the reports of the arrest of South Sudan's First Vice-President, Reik Machar. UNMISS Chief Nicholas Haysom stated: “Tonight, the country’s leaders stand on the brink of relapsing into widespread conflict or taking the country forward towards peace, recovery and democracy in the spirit of the consensus that was reached in 2018 when they signed and committed to implementing a Revitalized Peace Agreement." The tensions between the political rivals, President Salva Kiir and Vice-President Reik Machar, began after troops aligned with Machar, the White Army, captured a military base and clashed with South Sudanese forces in Upper Nile. According to Machar's Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLM/IO) party, a convoy of armed vehicles "forcefully entered the residence of Machar and arrested him on 26 March. 

Ethiopia: New tensions in Tigray and with Eritrea
On 22 March, Al Jazeera reported that the Ethiopian federal forces killed more than 300 members of the Amhara ethnic militia, Fano, in the northern Amhara region. The relationship with the Fano militia, a former ally of Ethiopian federal forces during the Tigray conflict, fell out after the Ethiopian government ordered all ethnic militias to integrate into the federal forces following the peace agreement in Tigray. 

Meanwhile, on 20 March, BBC reported on increasing tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia. Tigray's Interim President Getachew Reda accused the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) faction of the interim administration of colluding with Eritrean forces to take over the region. Getachew also accused Eritrean forces of continuing to occupy parts of the border region. Tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia are also over Ethiopia's plans to access the sea, which has raised concerns in Eritrea that Ethiopia will take access to one of their ports by force. On 24 March, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed stated that Ethiopia has no intention of starting a war with Eritrea to access the sea.

Zimbabwe: 95 arrested following violent anti-government protests
On 1 April, Al Jazeera reported that at least 95 people were arrested in Zimbabwe under the charges of promoting public violence while taking part in protests. The protests began on 31 March, calling for President Emmerson Mnangagwa to leave office. They chanted the slogans “Enough is enough” and “Mnangagwa must go.” The protests erupted after Mnangagwa’s ZANU-PF party announced its bid to extend the president's term by two years until 2030. Mnangagwa, who came to power in 2017 through a coup after deposing Rober Mugabe, is serving his final term. 

DR Congo: M23 violence resumes in Kivu region
On 25 March, Al Jazeera reported on renewed violence in eastern DRC after Rwanda-backed M23 rebels clashed with pro-government fighters known as Wazalendo in South Kivu and North Kivu. Following the violence, M23 backed off from its announcement to withdraw from the Walikale region of North Kivu. Meanwhile, on 22 March, the leaders of the East African Community (EAC) and Southern African Development Community (SADC) met virtually to discuss a ceasefire in DR Congo, which would ultimately lead to resolving the conflict. They appointed five former heads of state to facilitate the peace process. They include Nigeria’s Olusegun Obasanjo, South Africa’s Kgalema Motlanthe, Ethiopia’s Sahle-Work Zewde, Kenya’s Uhuru Kenyatta and the Central African Republic’s Catherine Samba Panza.

Europe and the Americas
Ukraine: Russian attacks in Kharkiv
On 31 March, Russia launched a second set of attacks on Kharkiv in northeastern Ukraine, injuring three. The drone strike targeted industrial buildings, including research and production enterprises, two kindergartens and 11 buildings. In addition to drones, the attack also involved two Iskander-M ballistic missiles. The Russian Ministry of Defence accused Ukraine of violating the ceasefire agreement by targeting energy infrastructure in Bryansk. On 30 March, Kharkiv Regional Governor Oleh Syniehubov acknowledged the protection of critical infrastructure as the main challenge. In a meeting with the Latvian National Armed Forces and the Latvian Embassy in Ukraine, Syniehubov emphasised that while food sources and evacuation arrangements have been steadied, safeguarding infrastructure remains a key concern. Since 2022, Kharkiv Oblast has been subject to 22,000 attacks, with over 77,600 critical infrastructure sites damaged or destroyed. On 30 March, Ukrainian forces Commander Yurii Fedorenko from the 429th Achilles Separate Unmanned Systems Regiment reported attacking a Russian tank, two self-propelled artillery pieces, and multiple vehicles in the Kharkiv region. The attack resulted in the devastation of three additional Russian vehicles. Since 2025, Ukraine has defused 9,838 Russian military and specialized vehicles on the frontlines.

Ukraine: New directorate to advance space military sector
On 29 March, Ukraine's Ministry of Defence announced the establishment of a Space Policy Directorate to advance the military space sector by integrating domestic and international capabilities. Deputy Minister of Defence Kateryna Chernohorenko at the Space for Ukraine Forum said that the policy will regulate military space activities, adopt advanced technologies, and harmonize with international partners. A ten-year roadmap outlines an initial audit of space infrastructure, followed by satellite development and space situational awareness systems. The final stage predicts a defence space segment with a satellite constellation for real-time analytics and global security integration. Meanwhile, the EU confirmed Ukraine’s future entry into its space programs.

Ukraine-Russia: Agree on ceasefire over Black Sea; Attacks continue
On 26 March, Russia's Ministry of Defence claimed to have destroyed nine Ukrainian drones over the Black Sea. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian presidential spokesperson reported on Russian attacks on Ukraine's eight energy facilities. This comes despite two partially agreed ceasefires. On 25 March, the White House announced that Russia and Ukraine had separately agreed to a ceasefire on military strikes against vessels in the Black Sea. This development follows lengthy talks in Saudi Arabia. Both countries issued statements confirming their commitment to ensuring safe navigation, eliminating the use of force, and preventing the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea. On the same day, the US and Russian officials held talks for a partial ceasefire. This comes after separate discussions with the Ukraine delegation. Despite an agreement to not strike at energy infrastructure, both continued the attacks, complicating the path towards the 30-day full ceasefire. On 25 March, the Russian government confirmed its participation in the US-brokered agreement intended to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea. It announced that, alongside the agreement, Russia and the US had agreed to execute measures to stop strikes on Russian and Ukrainian energy facilities for a 30-day period, which began on March 18. However, Russia predetermined that the Black Sea ceasefire would be implemented after sanctions were lifted on the Russian Agricultural Bank and other financial institutions that are connected to the SWIFT international payment system. Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed optimism on the partial ceasefire agreement. He stressed that the next steps rely on Russia's actions. He stated that if air raid alerts resumed or military activity took place, new measures would be required against Moscow.

Russia: Moscow rejects US’ ceasefire proposal 
On 1 April, Russia’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Ryabkov rejected the US ceasefire proposal, which was intended to resolve the war in Ukraine. In an interview, Ryabkov called it unacceptable and stated that Russia took the proposal seriously but “could not accept them in their current form.” He explained that the US approach failed to account for Russia’s core concerns, particularly related to Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the ongoing conflict. This follows remarks by US President Donald Trump, who expressed frustration with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, stating the possibility of imposing stricter sanctions on Russian oil imports. This highlights the impasse for a potential ceasefire. 

Poland and Latvia: Sign deal to boost air defence capabilities
On 31 March, Poland and Latvia signed separate deals to enhance their air defence systems. Poland secured a contract with the US to receive equipment and logistical support for its Patriot missile systems. According to Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk, it was to strengthen NATO and EU cooperation. He urged Trump to prioritise collaboration with Europe, citing the strong alliance. The Latvian government announced EUR 200 million for 70 Swedish RBS 70 NG portable air defence missile systems. The deal was set for delivery between 2026 and 2030 and will bolster Latvia’s defence capabilities in countering drones, helicopters, and low-flying fighter jets. 

Hungary: Law passed banning LGBTQ+ events and the right to assembly
On 26 March, thousands protested in Budapest in opposition to the recently passed law banning LGBTQ+ events and the right to assembly. This is the second time protests erupted in Hungary after the Fidesz party came into power. Protesters gathered in Kossuth Lajos, blocking traffic while chanting “democracy” and “assembly” is a fundamental right. The new law amends Hungary’s assembly rules, making it illegal to host or attend events that violate “child protection” legislation that forbids the depiction or promotion of homosexuality to minors under the age of 18. Opponents said that this law is similar to the restriction of sexual minorities in Russia.

The Netherlands: Government aims to double the military personnel by the end of 2030
On 25 March, the Dutch government, due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, announced its plans to double the number of personnel serving in the armed forces. The number currently stands at 70,000, and the targeted number is 200,000. The Dutch Ministry of Defence has confirmed that it will reach the goal by the end of 2030. State Secretary of Defence Gijs Tuinman wrote a letter to the House of Representatives mentioning that the defence sector is facing a major change and that the Netherlands must stand on its "own two feet." To achieve this goal, the government will send a survey to all citizens above the age of 17 who are interested in serving. The government also aim at increasing the number of reservists (part-time) for the armed forces, often combining their service with civilian duties (work/study).

About the authors
Anu Maria Joseph and Padmashree Anandhan are Project Associates at NIAS. Nuha Aamina, Femy Francis and Abhiruchi Chowdhury are Research Assistants at NIAS. Fleur Elizabeth Philip is a Research Intern at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad. Nova Karun is a postgraduate student at Pondicherry University. 

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