Conflict Weekly

Photo Source: Reuters
   NIAS Course on Global Politics
National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS)
Indian Institute of Science Campus, Bangalore
For any further information or to subscribe to GP alerts send an email to subachandran@nias.res.in

CWA # 1655
Conflict Weekly
Expanding anti-Erdogan Protests in Turkey and Russia’s Continuing Military Strikes in Ukraine

  IPRI Team
18 April 2025

Conflict Weekly #277, 17 April 2025, Vol.6, No. 16
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI

Ramya B and Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Turkey: Expanding anti-government protests
Ramya B
 
In the news
On 14 April, as a part of the ongoing protests during the last few weeks, several high school students protested against replacing their teachers. The protestors claimed the teachers were suspended for supporting the opposition, while the government denied. During the protest, one of the students said: “We’re here to take a stand against the removal of our teachers without any valid reason.”

On 13 April, Secretary General of the Council of Europe, Alain Berset, said that the group was concerned about human rights violations in Turkey after hundreds of students and protesters were arrested for demonstrating against Turkey’s President Erdogan’s decision to arrest Istanbul’s Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu on corruption charges.

Issues at large
First, the current protets and political turmoil. The protests began after the arrest of the Mayor of Istanbul, Ekrem Imamoglu, a member of the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and a candidate for the next presidential election. The day previous to his arrest, Istanbul University invalidated his degree, making him ineligible for the presidential election. It was not his first arrest. Imamoglu received a two-year sentence and a ban from politics in December 2022 for insulting members of the Supreme Election Board. An appeal halted his sentence and political ban. His latest arrest is seen as a repression of democracy by the demonstrators and journalists. Imamoglu outperformed Erdogan in public opinion polls. Mass societal protests, their speed and scale, and the momentum of support for democratisation are seen to be of a surprising scale to the ruling government. These were Turkey’s biggest demonstrations in the last decade.

Second, Erdogan’s authoritarian leadership. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been in power for 22 years. In 2017, he introduced constitutional reforms, removing many checks on his authority, giving him control over courts, media, and national security. Turkey was seen as a textbook case for a competitive authoritarian regime by political experts, where the multiparty democracy was flawed but existed at least at the local level. The arrests of March 2025 seem to challenge this notion. 

Third, the economic challenges. The stock market volatility and a sharp decline of the Turkish lira have led to foreign investors withdrawing funds, straining the economy. According to the Turkish Statistical Institute, the economy contracted 0.2 per cent in the second and third quarters of 2025, confirming a recession.  Annual inflation remains high at 48.6 per cent, forcing the central bank to keep the key interest rate at 50 per cent for eight months.

Fourth, growing discontent among the youth. The current anti-Erdogan protests can be seen as the culmination of youth activists' discontent against the President for several issues. The young activists are flooding social media, boycotting companies they view as linked to the government, boycotting exams and organising roadside demonstrations expressing concerns over democracy and human rights. The Erdoğan government's actions, including bans on LGBTQ+ events and suppression of civil liberties, have drawn criticism from international human rights organisations as well.

Fifth, regional response. Following the protests and arrests in Turkey, the EU, along with Germany and France, raised concerns over the erosion of democratic norms. They claimed such acts as constraining economic and political ties with the EU. Whereas, NATO issued only generic statements on democratic values and expressed concern over the undermining of domestic stability. It has remained so since Turkey has been credible in negotiating deals in the Black Sea over the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, Greece and Cyprus highlighted the authoritarian shift in Turkey. Overall, the response at the regional level has been mixed on democratic concerns.
 
In perspective
First, domestic instability. Turkey's present path under Erdoğan emphasises the difficulties of striking a balance between international diplomacy, economic resilience, and domestic stability. The president is taking a big political risk that may have several consequences. One of the consequences is making Imamoglu a popular political name, a hero or a martyr.  FRANCE 24 has reported that fifteen million people participated in Turkey’s opposition CHP primary on March 23 for a show of support to ousted Imamoglu. Domestically, the government's attitude toward dissent and civil rights will decide how many democratic values can be maintained. The evolving events in Turkey are a vital case study of the interaction between an authoritarian government, economic difficulties, and foreign relations.

Second, international pressure. Turkey's future could very much be shaped by the reaction of the international community, especially from the EU. Their pressure to uphold democratic values and human rights may influence Turkey’s decision. It is also intriguing to note the significant absence of pressure from the US, which labelled it as an ‘internal decision-making matter’ of Turkey. 

The Ukraine War: Russia’s military strikes and a Complicated Putin-Trump-Zelenskyy Equation
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
 
In the news
On 14 April, Russia conducted drone attacks on Odesa, a port city in Ukraine located on the Black Sea, wounding three people and causing severe damage to infrastructure. On 13 April, Russia attacked Sumy, a city in north-east Ukraine, by launching Iskander missiles, killing 35 people and wounding 117 others. 

On 15 April, NATO Secretary-General, Mark Rutte, met Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Odesa. The NATO chief assured Zelenskyy of steadfast support to Ukraine. Further, Rutte said “Russia is the aggressor, Russia started this war, there’s no doubt.”     

On 14 April, US President Donald Trump termed Russia’s attack on Sumy as “terrible.” However, on the attack, he hinted that Russia might have “made a mistake.” In a response to an interviewer, Trump criticised Zelenskyy and said: “You don’t start a war against somebody that’s 20 times your size and then hope that people give you some missiles.” 

On 13 April, Zelenskyy in an interview appealed to US President Donald Trump for coming to Ukraine prior to inking any sort of agreement with Russia for ending the conflict in Ukraine. 

Issues at large
First, Trump’s troubled relationship with Zelenskyy. Trump has shared a troublesome relationship with Zelenskyy before assuming the US Presidency. He had alleged that Zelenskyy was hoping the Democrats to clinch victory in the US elections. He called him the “greatest salesman on earth.” Zelenskyy had expressed scepticism over Trump’s capacity to put an end to the war and labelled the current US Vice President J D Vance “too radical.” Before the meeting at the Oval Office with President Zelenskyy in February, Trump labelled him as a “dictator.” He claimed that Zelenskyy had been proficient in manipulating former US President Joe Biden. He further alleged that Zelenskyy has been dodging holding elections in Ukraine. He had questioned Zelenskyy’s popularity in the country, given the devastation witnessed by some of the major towns of Ukraine owing to the war with Russia. Additionally, the infamous shouting contest at the Oval Office between Zelenskyy and Trump had exposed the severe bitterness in the relationship between the two.   

Second, Trump’s hot and cold relationship with Putin. After Russia launched the war in Ukraine in February 2022, Trump labelled Putin as “a genius” for recognising the autonomy of Donetsk and Luhansk. However, took a quick U-turn when he compared the invasion with a holocaust. He has been reiterating that the war would have never happened had he been the US President. After assuming the Presidency, Trump claimed that Putin is harming Russia by not agreeing to “make a deal” to end the war. In February, during the Trump-Putin first telephonic conversation, Trump appreciated Putin for investing his “time and effort” to put an end to the war. In February, at the UN General Assembly, the US and Russia voted against a resolution which criticised the latter's invasion and backed the “territorial integrity” of Ukraine. At the UN Security Council, the US had put forward a resolution which urged putting a stop to the war, however, deliberately omitting vilification of Russia. In March, Trump expressed his frustration over Putin not halting the attacks on Ukraine. Trump had questioned Putin’s demand to install a “temporary administration” in Ukraine while negotiating a peace agreement. He threatened that Russia would have to face severe economic sanctions if it did not agree to a peace deal. 

Third, Russia’s continual attacks on Ukraine.  Russia has continued its offensive approach against Ukraine after Trump assumed the US Presidency. Soon after agreeing not to attack Ukraine’s energy installation on 18 March, Russia initiated drone attacks on Kropyvnytskyi, injuring 14 people and causing devastation to the “railway power grid.” The latest attack on Odesa is a testimony to another failed attempt by the US to achieve a ceasefire. The US had announced making separate deals with Russia and Ukraine for halting attacks in the Black Sea. On 4 April, Russia launched assaults on Kryvyi Rih. The missile assault killed 19 people.

Fourth, the divide in Europe regarding support for Ukraine. On 20 March, the EU leaders expressed their resolve to continue their financial assistance to Ukraine. The Vice President of the European Commission, Kaja Kallas, expressed her optimism towards the EU’s ability to support Ukraine with EUR 40 billion worth of military assistance. However, the plan could not be formulated because of divergent opinions among the EU member states regarding the flow of aid to Ukraine. Kallas had to decrease the amount to EUR five billion, which still failed to garner sufficient support from the member countries.   
 
In perspective
First, Trump’s attitude towards Zelenskyy is unlikely to change. Trump would prefer someone else holding Ukraine’s highest office who has not openly backed the Democrats in the US.

Second, Russia would continue to take advantage of the weak position of Ukraine whenever it can. Unless there is a change in leadership in Ukraine, Russia will not take the ceasefire seriously.

Third, the divide among the EU over continuing financial and military assistance would further widen. The rise of the right-wing political parties in Europe signifies that the voices calling for putting an end to the assistance to Ukraine would only get louder.

NIAS Conflict Tracker
Where, When and What
D Suba Chandran and Anu Maria Joseph

Gaza: Military Strikes, Corridors, and Protests Elsewhere
During the last week, Israel continued with its military strikes. According to news reports, during 16-17 April, Israel’s military strikes in Gaza killed more than 20. These strikes were reported to have taken place in areas designated by Israel as a “humanitarian zone” where the displaced people were staying in tents and camps. 

Last week, Israel’s defence minister warned Hamas of “tremendous force, from the air, land and sea” and to continue with evacuations of civilians, unless the latter agree to release the rest of the hostages. On 11 April, there was a new evacuation order for people to leave from Gaza City’s neighbourhoods.

On 12 April, according to news reports, the Israeli defence forces have taken effective control of “Morag Corridor," a line that separates Khan Younis from Rafah.

During the week, two cities in South Asia witnessed large protests. On 12 April, according to news reports, more than 100,000 gathered in Dhaka, Bangladesh’s capital, showing their solidarity with Gaza. On the following day, in Karachi (Pakistan), a similar protest attracted a huge gathering.

Sudan: Two years of war, the RSF declares a parallel government
15 April marked two years of the civil war in Sudan. On the same day, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) declared a parallel government in the areas under its control. What started as a rivalry between two military heads has now divided the country. Many fear that this may lead to a situation similar to that of Libya.

The RSF is in control of the western regions of Darfur and Kordofan. This week, the groups seized control of the Zamzam IDP camp in North Darfur. The attack killed more than 100 people, according to the UN. The RSF is being accused of targeting civilians. However, the group claimed that the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) used civilians as a shield. 

Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Nuha Aamina, Abhiruchi Chowdhury, Nova Karun and Fleur Elizabeth Philip 

China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Trump’s tariffs on Chinese goods hit 145 per cent
On 10 April, US President Donald Trump imposed additional tariffs on Chinese imports, increasing them to 145 per cent from the previous 125 per cent. It came after China imposed 84 per cent retaliatory tariffs on US imports. The White House stated that the new additional tariffs are for the retaliatory measures and China’s role in the fentanyl supply to the US. The stock markets saw a rise as Trump announced a pause on tariff imposition for 90 days on countries that did not retaliate. The baseline tariff will remain at ten per cent for all countries. China’s embassy to the US spokesperson, Liu Pengyu said: “If the US truly wants to talk, it should let people see that they’re ready to treat others with equality, respect and mutual benefit,” and that “China does not want to fight these wars but is not scared of them.”

China: Ukraine’s President claims 155 Chinese nationals fighting for Russia
On 10 April, the BBC reported on Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky's claims that 155 Chinese nationals were fighting for Russia. This came after Ukraine captured two Chinese nationals after a crossfire with six Chinese nationals fighting from the Russian front. Zelensky believes that many Chinese nationals are fighting in the Russia-Ukraine war. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Lin Jian, said: “China is neither the creator nor a party to the Ukrainian crisis. We are a staunch supporter and active promoter of the peaceful resolution of the crisis.” Lin added that China has always required its nationals to refrain from getting involved in armed conflict, especially participating in military operations. Zelensky said: “There are 155 people with surnames, with passport data - 155 Chinese citizens who are fighting against Ukrainians on the territory of Ukraine.” When interrogated, the Chinese detainee informed that this was their first time in combat and that they had never fired a gun before. 

China: Hong Kong’s opposition Democratic Party disbands amid crackdown by CPC
On 13 April, Hong Kong’s opposition, the Democratic Party, disbanded after a special meeting of the party members. The party stated that the disbandment is attributed to pressure from China and the national security crackdown. The party was warned of dire consequences if not disbanded. The party was founded in 1994. In 1997, Hong Kong became part of China, and since then, the party has been pushing the CPC for democratic reforms. Democratic Party head, Lo Kin-hei, informed that 90 per cent of the party leaders agreed to disband. He said: “I hope Hong Kong's political parties ... will continue to work for the people,” and that “we have always hoped to serve the Hong Kong people, and to do things that are good for society.” He informed that until the final disbanding, the party will continue its activities as usual. Currently, five of the party heads are in custody under the National Security Law. Lo said: “I believe people in Hong Kong, after experiencing democracy, an open political system and the rule of law, they won't forget and give it up. The political culture and the fight for democracy will carry on in H.K. in a peaceful manner.”

Japan: Increase in air defence activity in 2024, says Ministry of Defence
On 10 April, Japan’s Ministry of Defence announced that the Air Self-Defence Force scrambled fighter jets 704 times in 2024, which is up by 35 from the previous year. Of the total, the most were against Chinese military aircraft, accounting for 464. In August 2024, Chinese military aircraft violated Japanese airspace off the Danjo Islands in Nagasaki Prefecture for the first time. The number of Chinese drones detected near Japanese airspace tripled to 30, exceeding the 26 detected between fiscal 2013 and fiscal 2023. A ministry official said: “China may have developed a system to fully operate drones, upgrading from trial flights.” Additionally, a drone was spotted off Amami-Oshima Island in Kagoshima for the first time this fiscal year. Scrambles against Russian military aircraft accounted for 237, up by 63. In September, a Russian aircraft entered Japanese airspace three times off Rebun Island in Hokkaido, with ASDF fighters using decoy flares as a warning for the first time.

South Asia
India: Militant threat at LoC
On 10 April, following the Brigade Command-level flag meeting between the Indian and Pakistan armies in Poonch, an infiltration attempt was reported by India along the Line of Control (LoC). At the meeting held in Poonch, security forces discussed border management and measures to mitigate tensions at the LoC. It follows the first meeting held in February, where both sides agreed to maintain peace and the ceasefire agreement of 2021. However, the ceasefire was violated after the Pakistani Army launched “unprovoked firing” after a landmine detonated along the LoC on 1 April. On 11 April, the Indian army tracked the movement of heavily armed militants in the Keri Bhattal, leading to a fire exchange. It resulted in the killing of a Junior Commissioned Officer. Separately, on 13 April, during a joint anti-militant operation with the J&K police, security personnel exchanged fire with militants in Surankote. 

India: More than 60 Indians rescued from Myanmar scam centres
On 11 April, Maharashtra police’s cyber wing rescued more than 60 Indian nationals from labour trafficking in Myanmar and arrested five involved agents. The victims were approached by racketeers on social media and offered lucrative employment opportunities in Thailand and several other East Asian countries. The agents were involved in arranging passports, tickets, and travel visas to Thailand. Upon entering the country, they were transferred to Myanmar on boats. After reaching Myanmar, they were taken to compounds controlled by armed rebel groups to commit cyber fraud on a mass scale.

Pakistan: Attack on Air Force Masroor Airbase foiled
On 11 April, The News International reported that a leading intelligence agency prevented a terrorist attack by the Fitna al-Khawarij (FAK) on the Pakistan Air Force Masroor Airbase in Karachi. As per The News, nine militants belonging to the terror group entered Pakistan by trespassing on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. They had planned to take control of the airbase and cause damage to aircraft and infrastructure. The intelligence agency has detained all the terror suspects.” 

Pakistan: Reiterates concerns on terrorism emanating from Afghanistan
On 10 April, Pakistan reiterated its concerns regarding terrorism emanating from Afghanistan. As per Islamabad, terrorism continues to be a roadblock to cordial ties between the two countries. The government is yet to shed light on dates for the Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Coordination Committee (JCC) meeting. In March, Pakistan’s special envoy to Afghanistan visited Kabul. During the visit, Pakistan and Afghanistan decided to continue bilateral engagement on security, trade and refugees. It was also agreed that the JCC meeting would be scheduled before 15 April and that the commerce minister of the Taliban government would travel to Islamabad after Eid. Previously, Pakistan’s special envoy to Afghanistan cautioned that earlier commitments would not stand if the Taliban government continues to ignore terrorism emanating from its land. 

Pakistan: Eight Pakistani nationals killed in Iran
On 12 April, unknown militants murdered eight Pakistani labourers in Sistan-Baluchestan, Iran. As per Iran, the victims hailed from Bahawalpur, Punjab. Balochistan Liberation Army has assumed the responsibility for the assault.

Pakistan: Militants attack in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
On 14 April, unknown miscreants in Bannu shot and killed a police officer. In another incident, in South Waziristan, the dead bodies of two constables were retrieved. They were kidnapped by militants on 12 April. The Dottani tribe had formulated a traditional tribal force to find the abductors. Reportedly, there was a skirmish between the tribal force and the militants. Three militants were neutralised in the skirmish. On the same day, an unfinished building in Tank was attacked the militants, wounding seven labourers. No militant group has taken responsibility for the attack.

Nepal: Growing turmoil over pro-monarchist rhetoric 
On 13 April, former King Gyanendra Shah reiterated his stance on a multiparty and constitutional monarchy. Speaking on the eve of the Nepali New Year, he lamented the deaths caused by the riots. He emphasised the importance of civil liberty. He also urged the people to avoid schismatic narratives. He said: “The world has moved on, yet we remain trapped in cycles of political dogma. Our thoughts and actions must now centre around mother Nepal.” On 14 April, the Communist Party of Nepal Unified Marxist–Leninists (CPN-UML) called for holding former King Gyanendra Shah accountable for violent riots during a pro-monarchy demonstration the previous month. Prime Minister KP Oli Sharma has announced a mass youth rally in the capital on 24 April, the same day Shah's rule ended. 

The Middle East and Africa
Syria: Meetings with Lebanon on military and refugee cooperation
On 15 April, Syria and Lebanon held several meetings on military cooperation and refugee rehabilitation. Syria’s Ministry of Defence reported that its military Chief of Staff, Major General Ali al-Naasan, met the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) Liaison Officer, Brigadier General Michael Butrus. The two discussed boosting military coordination and developing mechanisms for cooperation. Syria’s State news outlet, SANA, described the two states as “brotherly countries.” On the same day, Ministers of Social Affairs and Labour Affairs of both countries met on the sidelines of the UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA). The parties discussed mechanisms for exchanging expertise and strengthening cooperation. 

Syria: Defence Ministry visits Tishreen as part of normalisation with SDF
On 14 April, a delegation from Syria’s Ministry of Defence, led by Brigadier General Awwad Mohammad, visited Aleppo’s Tishreen Dam complex to inspect the security and military situation in the area. According to the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies (FDD), the visit was a part of the ongoing normalisation of political relations between the Syrian government, controlled by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian Defence Forces (SDF). Syria’s government and SDF have reportedly reached a covert agreement under which the dam, formerly under SDF control, will be handed over to Damascus’ rule. Recently, the Syrian delegation visited multiple villages and military sites around the dam to assess the MoD’s efforts to restore security and stability and strengthen the military’s control over the area. Brigadier General Awaad stated that the dam would soon be handed over for civilian use “within a carefully considered timetable, which will be announced within the coming days.” He added that the MoD would send military engineering teams to conduct de-mining operations to return internally displaced persons. 

Yemen: Suspected US airstrike on Houthis
On 14 April, the Yemeni Houthis claimed to have suffered a US airstrike in Sanaa, killing six people and injuring 30 more. However, footage aired by Houthi sources claimed that the attack targeted a ceramic factory. Although the US Central Command (CENTCOM) did not acknowledge the attacks, President Donald Trump had authorised at-will strikes against the Yemeni group on 15 March. Furthermore, the White House had previously stated that it conducted over 200 strikes on the Houthis.

Israel: Houthis launch missile attack on Israeli airbase
On 13 April, the Yemeni Houthis launched two ballistic missiles against Israel. One missile targeted Israel’s Sdot Micha Airbase, where the country’s nuclear-capable Jericho missiles are stored. The other aimed at Ben Gurion Airport. In response, the IDF said that one of the missiles was intercepted. Although the Houthis claimed an additional attack in Israel’s Ashkelon area with a drone, Israeli authorities denied it.

Sudan: RSF announces parallel government
On 15 April, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced the formation of a rival government in areas under its control. On the day marking two years of the war, the RSF leader, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, declared the establishment of the “Government of Peace and Unity” in the areas under its control. Dagalo stated: “On this anniversary, we proudly declare the establishment of the Government of Peace and Unity, a broad coalition that reflects the true face of Sudan.”

Sudan: RSF attack in Zamzam IDP camp
On 13 April, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced that it captured the Zamzam IDP camp in North Darfur. According to the UN, two days of shelling and gunfire in the region killed more than 100 people. Al Jazeera quoted the RSF that it deployed “military units to secure civilians and humanitarian medical workers in Zamzam … after successfully liberating the camp entirely from the grip of” the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The aerial and ground offensives began on 11 April in el-Fasher, Zamzam and Abu Shouk regions. The RSF denied the allegations of targeting civilians, claiming that the SAF was using civilians as “human shields.” 

Tanzania: Election commission bans opposition party Chadema
On 12 April, the Independent National Elections Commission (INEC) of Tanzania banned the major opposition party, Chadema, from contesting the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for October this year. The INEC stated that Chadema failed to sign a mandatory code of conduct agreement by the deadline. It added that the disqualification extends to all by-elections until 2030. The announcement came days after Chadema’s leader, Tundu Lissu, was charged with treason for inciting violence in the name of election reforms. The Chedema party has been criticising the ruling Chama cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party and its leader, President Samia Suluhu Hassan, over clamping down on dissent, abductions and the killing of political activists. The ban on Chadema has raised concerns about the state of democracy in the country. 

DR Congo: UN condemns sexual violence against children
On 11 April, the UN condemned the widespread sexual violence against children in conflict-hit eastern DR Congo since January. UNICEF spokesperson James Elder warned that the rate of sexual violence in the DRC against children had “never been higher.” He added: “Early reports show that children make up between 35 to 45 percent of the nearly 10,000 cases of rape and sexual violence reported … in just January and February of this year. In short, based on initial data … during the most intense phase of this year’s conflict in eastern DRC, a child was raped every half an hour.” 

DR Congo: Boat accident kills 50 
On 16 April, Al Jazeera reported that a boat capsized after catching fire in DR Congo, killing 50 people. The wooden boat carried 400 passengers and caught fire near the Mbandaka town while sailing from the port of Matankumu to the Bolomba. Boat accidents because of overcrowding have become a frequent event in the country, killing hundreds every year. 

Somalia: Al Shabab captures strategic town of Adan Yabaal
On 16 April, Al Jazeera reported that the al-Shabab militant group seized control of Adan Yabaal town in central Somalia, 220 kilometres from the capital, Mogadishu. The group launched a raid, forcing the Somali troops to retreat. The reports were refuted by the Somali troops. Adan Yabaal is strategically significant as a logistical hub connecting the Hirshabelle and Galmudug states.

Europe and the Americas
Europe: EU countries' withdrawal from the Anti-Landmine Convention raises concerns 
On 10 April, Euronews published a report on five EU countries—Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland—withdrawal plan from the 1997 Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Convention, which was signed by 164 states. They argue that the current geopolitical climate demands greater flexibility in defence strategies, including the potential use of anti-personnel mines to deter or delay enemy advances. While none of the governments currently plan to produce or use such mines, their withdrawal signals a readiness to adapt military tactics if necessary. Finland and Latvia, in particular, emphasised the strategic value of mines in disrupting Russian forces, although critics warn this could lead to a rollback of humanitarian disarmament norms. The EU, despite its official stance rejecting any use of anti-personnel mines, has not condemned the move, and an amendment in the European Parliament to oppose the withdrawals was voted down. Humanitarian organisations and experts, including the Red Cross, warn that this shift could set a dangerous global precedent, weakening the treaty’s influence and encouraging other conflict-affected countries to abandon the ban, further endangering civilian lives, particularly those of women and children who often remain at risk long after conflicts end. 

Europe: NATO’s Sea Shield Military concludes its annual military training
On 11 April, NATO’s largest annual naval exercise in the Black Sea, ‘Sea Shield 25’, concluded its training for the year. This drill aims to improve the relationships among the member countries and to prepare for any threats that may affect the region. In the 2025 drill, 2600 soldiers from Albania, Bulgaria, Canada, France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Romania, Spain, the US, Turkey, and the UK participated. Ships, patrol planes, helicopters, and the troops were involved in practising various scenarios, which include hybrid threats and aerial attacks. The exercise also involved special forces, combat drivers, and experts in chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear defence, simulating a wide range of modern warfare.

Sweden: Canada and Portugal to buy JAS 39 fighter jets
On 16 April, Euronews reported that Portugal and Canada are considering alternatives to the US-made F-35 class of fighter jets, to the Swedish JAS 39 Gripen E/F fighter jet. This was confirmed by the CEO of Saab, a Swedish company. The change in plans came after Portugal's Minister of Defence, Nuno Melo, stated that the country “was skeptical over buying US F-35A Lightning II,” which is produced by the US aerospace and defence company, Lockheed Martin. The purpose of the change is the fear that a kill switch could ground the plane embedded onboard, which was not backed by evidence and refusals by Lockheed Martin. Additionally, experts say that both jets are designed for different purposes. Former Project Manager of NATO, Walter Kowalski, said: “The main advantage for Saab’s Gripen fighters is that they can host a variety of weapons, which include long and short-range missiles, and guided bombs. The Grippen enables countries to customise it with the parts and weapons that they already have.”

About the authors
Ramya B an Associate Professor at the Department of History, Kristu Jayanti College, Bangaluru. Anu Maria Joseph and Padmashree Anandhan are Project Associates at NIAS. Nuha Aamina, Femy Francis and Abhiruchi Chowdhury are Research Assistants at NIAS. Fleur Elizebeth Philip is a Research Intern at NIAS. Ayan Datta is a Postgraduate Student at the University of Hyderabad. Nova Karun is a postgraduate student at Pondicherry University. 

Print Bookmark

PREVIOUS COMMENTS

NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1189

Hoimi Mukherjee | Hoimi Mukherjee is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science in Bankura Zilla Saradamani Mahila Mahavidyapith.

Chile in 2023: Crises of Constitutionality
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1187

Aprajita Kashyap | Aprajita Kashyap is a faculty of Latin American Studies, School of International Studies at the Jawaharlal Nehru University New Delhi.

Haiti in 2023: The Humanitarian Crisis
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1185

Binod Khanal | Binod Khanal is a Doctoral candidate at the Centre for European Studies, School of International Studies, JNU, New Delhi.

The Baltic: Energy, Russia, NATO and China
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1183

Padmashree Anandhan | Padmashree Anandhan is a Research Associate at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangaluru.

Germany in 2023: Defence, Economy and Energy Triangle
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1178

​​​​​​​Ashok Alex Luke | Ashok Alex Luke is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Political Science at CMS College, Kottayam.

China and South Asia in 2023: Advantage Beijing?
The World This Year
December 2023 | CWA # 1177

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri | Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri is a postgraduate student at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at the University of Madras, Chennai.

China and East Asia
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta | Centre for South Asian Studies, Kathmandu

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer | Research Associate, ISSSP, NIAS

Afghanistan