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IPRI Team
3 July 2025 |
Conflict Weekly #287&288, 3 July 2025, Vol.6, Nos. 26 & 27
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI
Brighty Ann Sarah, Preetha R, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair, M Kejia and Anu Maria Joseph
Israel, Iran, the US and "The 12 Day War" in the Middle East: Claims & Counter Claims
Brighty Ann Sarah, Preetha R, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair and M Kejia
In the news
On 13 June, Israel launched air strikes on Iran’s central nuclear enrichment facility in Natanz, defence infrastructure, and civilian headquarters. Key figures, including the Supreme Leader's adviser and former Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Ali Shamkhani, Iran's armed forces chief of staff, Mohammad Bagheri, Revolutionary Guards chief Hossein Salami, and the commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards’ air force, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, were killed in the attack.
On 14 June, Iran retaliated by launching several ballistic missiles at Israel’s defence structures in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Israel, backed by the US, shot down several missiles. Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, responded to the strikes, warning that “the citizens of Iran will pay a heavy price” and that “Tehran will burn” if Iran does not back down. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu added that “more is on the way.”
On 15 June, Israel and Iran launched attacks on each other, and Iran reported that at least 138 people were killed. Israel’s authorities stated that at least ten people were killed and more than 140 were injured. Israel’s official stated Israel still has a long list of targets, and the forces have attacked ‘dual-use' Iranian fuel sites. US President Trump stated that “if we are attacked in any way, shape or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces will come down on you at levels never seen before," and the conflict could end easily via a deal between Iran and Israel.
On 16 June, Iran’s missiles struck Tel Aviv and the port city of Haifa. In response, Israel targeted Iran’s Command Centre of the Quds Force. Israel’s Defence Minister, Israel Katz, said that Tehran would “pay the price and soon.” Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called for “a total cessation of military aggression.”
On 17 June, Iran launched a missile attack on Israel. The Israeli military’s chief spokesperson stated that Israel had destroyed more than 120 missile launchers since the beginning of the crisis. President Trump said, "We are looking at better than a ceasefire," and suggested a "real end" to the nuclear dispute with Iran.
On 18 June, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that Iran will not accept Donald Trump’s call for “unconditional surrender.”
On 19 June, Iran's missiles that targeted a military site accidentally hit the Soroka medical centre, injuring 89 civilians. Prime Minister Netanyahu said that they would "exact the full price from the tyrants in Tehran." Israel's forces launched an attack on the Arak heavy water reactor and the Natanz facility.
On 20 June, Iran's Foreign Minister stated that “there is no room for negotiations with the US until Israeli aggression stops,” ruling out the possibility of negotiations while the attacks persist.
On 21 June, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz announced that the head of the Palestine Corps of Iran's elite Quds Force, Mohammed Said Izadi, was eliminated in a precision strike. Said Izadi reportedly oversaw Iran's proxy militias, including Hamas, across the Middle East.
On 22 June, the US participated in joint strikes with Israel against Iran's primary nuclear facilities at Natanz, Isfahan, and the heavily strengthened facility at Fordow. He stated that the goal was to destroy Iran’s nuclear enrichment capacity and stop the nuclear threat caused by the world’s number one state sponsor of terror. B-2 stealth bombers carried out the operation using GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOP), also known as ‘bunker buster' bombs, capable of penetrating the heavily fortified facility at Fordow.
On 23 June, in a recorded video statement, Ebrahim Zolfaqari, spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya central military headquarters, referred to US President Donald Trump as a 'gambler,' and stated that "you may start this war, but we will be the ones to end it.” At the emergency Security Council meeting convened on 22 June, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres remarked that the US bombing of Iran's nuclear sites "marks a perilous turn," and called for negotiations on Iran's nuclear programme. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen reiterated that "Iran must never acquire the bomb," and France and Germany staunchly reaffirmed their positions against Iran's nuclear programme.
On 24 June, President Trump wrote on social media that a complete and total ceasefire has been agreed by Israel and Iran for 12 hours and that “the War will be considered ENDED!” declaring it “THE 12 DAY WAR.” A few hours before the announcement, Iran had launched a missile at a US air base in Qatar, which Trump described as “very weak” and “expected.” Despite Trump's ceasefire calls, Israel struck Iran's radar site in Tehran; Iran launched 14 missiles at Israel's military sites.
On 26 June, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei declared “total victory” over Israel and warned that a future US attack on Iran would come at a “great cost." He added that US strikes on Iran “gained no achievement.” Shortly after, Israel's Prime Minister Netanyahu's social media post with a picture of himself and US President Trump, writing, “we will continue to work together to defeat our common enemies."
Issues at large
First, Iran’s nuclear program. Iran commenced its nuclear program in 1957 with the support of the United States under the “Atoms for Peace” initiative by President Dwight Eisenhower, which aimed to promote civil nuclear energy. It has maintained that the nuclear program was meant to facilitate energy diversification to reduce reliance on fossil fuels, medical research and as a matter of national pride. However, Iran’s nuclear ambitions have sparked concerns over nuclear proliferation, regional stability, and global security over the years. One of the primary concerns about Iran’s nuclear program is its advanced uranium enrichment activities, which have reached levels far beyond what is necessary for civilian purposes. By May 2025, Iran possessed 408.6 kg of 60 per cent enriched uranium, enough for multiple nuclear devices if further enriched to 90 per cent. As noted by the UK, France, and Germany in 2021, such high levels of uranium have “no credible civilian use” its “potentially grave military implications,” heightening fears that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons capability.
Second, Iran, the IAEA and concerns over covert enrichment. Repeated instances of Iran restricting IAEA access to verify its nuclear operations and its non-compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) have raised concerns. Following the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, Iran has violated key provisions and announced that it would stop implementing “voluntary transparency measures.” In addition to breaching the 300-kilogram limit on low-enriched uranium and enriching uranium to 60 per cent, they reportedly installed thousands of new centrifuges, particularly the IR-2m, IR-4, and IR-6 models. The lack of transparency raises suspicions that Iran is hiding critical aspects of its program, including covert weapons projects like the alleged “Kavir Plan” reported by the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) in June 2025. On 12 June, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) stated that Iran breached non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years. The latest report found undeclared nuclear materials and activities at several sites. The agency said: “Iran's many failures to uphold its obligations since 2019 to provide the agency with full and timely cooperation regarding undeclared nuclear material and activities at multiple undeclared locations in Iran... constitute non-compliance with its obligations.”
Third, concerns over a nuclear Iran, especially by Israel and the US. For Israel, Iran's possession of nuclear weapons is an existential threat to its national security. Israel claimed Iran's nuclear program reached a "point of no return" and targeted nuclear sites, missile infrastructure, and key nuclear scientists to degrade and destroy Iran's capabilities. Iran views Israel as a 'Zionist enemy' and vows its destruction. This hostility and Iran's support for anti-Israel proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas add to the motive behind 'Operation Rising Lion'. In March 2025, US President Trump gave Iran a 60-day deadline to return to nuclear talks. The United States offered sanctions relief and possible normalisation of relations if Iran complied with joining new nuclear negotiations. The United States made it clear during the 12-day Israel-Iran war that it would not allow Iran to become a nuclear power.
In perspective
First, doubts over whether Iran’s nuclear program was obliterated. The Pentagon on 2 July stated that the US strikes had degraded Iran's nuclear program by up to two years, suggesting the US military operation possibly attained its objectives. However, IAEA’s Director General Rafael Grossi stated that Iran could be producing enriched uranium in a few months, raising questions about how effective the US strikes were. The discrepancy between Trump’s claims and these reports fuels doubts about the nuclear program’s true status.
Second, Iran’s response so far and what it means. Iran's parliament on 25 June approved a bill to suspend cooperation with the IAEA. Iranian officials assert that nuclear capabilities remain intact.
Third, Europe’s stance. Europe has maintained a diplomatic role by trying to mediate a deal. European officials state that US strikes did not obliterate Iran's nuclear program, but have decreased the chance of reaching an agreement on the nuclear program.
DR Congo-Rwanda: A deal in the US, with problems in the region
Anu Maria Joseph
In the news
On 27 June, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda signed a peace deal in Washington, ending the ongoing violent conflict in eastern DRC's North and South Kivu provinces. According to the US-led deal, both parties have agreed to a cessation of hostilities and respect the territorial integrity. The deal additionally calls for "disengagement, disarmament and conditional integration" of armed groups in eastern Congo, and the return of refugees and displaced people.
The agreement includes a framework for the US “to expand foreign trade and investment derived from regional critical mineral supply chains,” to “link both countries, in partnership, as appropriate, with the U.S. government and U.S. investors.”
US President Trump stated: "Today, the violence and destruction come to an end, and the region begins a new chapter of hope and opportunities." Trump described the deal as "a glorious triumph."
DRC's presidential office stated: “Another diplomatic success of President Felix Tshisekedi--certainly the most important in over 30 years."
Issues at large
First, a brief background to the conflict. The conflict in eastern DRC between Rwanda, the DRC and several armed groups has been ongoing for three decades. Rwanda and the DRC accuse each other of supporting the rebels against each other. This decades-long conflict is over territorial control, access to mineral resources and trade networks, regional and political influence and ethnic rivalry. In January, the conflict escalated when the Rwanda-backed M23 rebels captured the regional capitals of North and South Kivu provinces, Goma and Bukavu. The conflict has killed more than seven thousand people and displaced one million since the recent escalation, according to the DRC government.
Second, the path towards the peace deal. Initially, the peace mediations in eastern DRC have been led by Angola. However, Angola's efforts for direct talks between M23 and the DRC in March were unsuccessful when M23 withdrew at the last moment. In March, Qatar successfully hosted ceasefire talks between the DRC's President Tshisekedi and Rwanda's President Paul Kagame. However, the agreed ceasefire remained redundant as M23 was not involved in the discussions, the ceasefire conditions were unclear, and M23 had less incentive to withdraw from Goma and Bukavu. In April, Qatar mediated a truce between M23 and the DRC after direct talks in Doha. Qatari-led truce laid the foundations for peace mediations before the US took the lead.
Third, the role of the US. In March, DRC proposed a critical mineral deal with the US in return for security assistance to combat rebellion in eastern DRC. Although historically the US has been hesitant to provide any military assistance to the DRC over human rights allegations, DRC being the largest supplier of cobalt and a major producer of lithium, tantalum and uranium, the US was convinced. And for Congo, the deal will diversify its mineral sectors away from Chinese domination. The US-led mediations began when the US envoy to Africa, Massad Boulos, visited Rwanda and the DRC in April, and brought the warring parties to sign the Declaration of Principles on mutual respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, national unity and peaceful settlement of disputes.
In perspective
The deal is on, but peace appears to be absent. The fundamental issues behind the decades-long conflict in eastern DRC are colonial-era border issues, unresolved ethnic tensions and the drawbacks of the 1994 Rwandan genocide. None of the above issues were discussed during the peace talks.
DRC and Rwanda are not the only actors in the conflict. The peace talks were not inclusive of hundreds of armed groups present in the region, especially M23. Other stakeholders, including the neighbouring countries of Uganda and Burundi, were left aside. Disengagement of Hundreds of armed groups, as mentioned in the deal, would be a challenging task for the Rwandan and DRC authorities. On the day the deal was signed, CODECO militia killed ten people in an attack on a displaced persons camp. These groups have been assimilated into society, making it almost impossible to maintain the commitment from the armed groups and their subsequent demobilisation.
Trump is celebrating the deal a little early. The Eastern DRC has a history of multiple failed peace agreements, attributed to multiple issues including lack of commitment, inclusiveness, conflicting demands, territorial disputes, ethnic tensions, and armed rebellion. The US-led peace agreement focuses on the economic aspects of the conflict. The deal would potentially pressure DRC and Rwanda to resolve the disputes over the control of mineral towns in the region. While emphasis was given to DRC-Rwanda disputes, the deal undermined the multidimensional conflicts in the region. Considering the eastern DRC's record of failed ceasefires, peace efforts and peace agreements, the US deal is unlikely to bring peace in the region.
Meanwhile, the US entry into the region is likely to change the regional dynamics. The perspective is divided. For some, US entry is expected to bring stability and end the dominance of Chinese companies. Besides, it would be a new entry point for the West to change the anti-West sentiments and counter the growing Russian and Chinese presence in the region. But, for many, US involvement has brought more fear that American peace would be forced upon them, similar to Iran and Afghanistan.
Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Fleur Elizabeth Philip, Abhiruchi Chowdhury, Rizwana Banu S, Chittrothu Vaihali, and Santhiya M
China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Warns the Philippines against hosting a US missile system
On 27 June, China’s Ministry of National Defence accused the Philippines of self-inflicted destruction by encouraging the US missile system and fishing in the South China Sea. China sent the message after the Philippines hosted the US army’s Typhoon missile and "NMESIS" anti-ship system in Northern Luzon and Batanes. The ministry’s spokesperson, Zhang Xiaogang, responded that Manila is bringing wrath to its home by aligning closely with the US and undermining regional stability. He rebuked the Philippines’ decision to send fishermen into the contested waters. Meanwhile, China’s embassy in Manila rejected the Philippines’ accusations against China’s maritime involvement in drug trafficking.
China: Canada bans Chinese surveillance tech firm Hikvision
On 30 June, China condemned Canada’s decision to shut down the operations of a Chinese surveillance tech giant, Hikvision, and warned of trade disruptions. Canada announced the decision following an intelligence review with Industry Minister Melanie Joy, emphasising the national security threats posed by Hikvision. In response, China’s Ministry of Commerce urged the correction of wrongdoing and the necessity to protect China’s business interests. China urged Canada not to target Chinese firms and called for a non-discriminatory business environment.
China: Water cannons fired against a Philippine vessel near Scarborough Shoal
On 20 June, Reuters reported that the Chinese Coast Guard used water cannons and loud warnings to remove a Philippine ship from waters near Scarborough Shoal. They noted that the Philippine vessel entered the area without permission. It stated that the actions were necessary as the Philippine vessel refused to leave the area. Beijing sees Scarborough Shoal as part of its territory as it lies in the South China Sea. The two countries have had past disputes over the shoal. China took control of it in 2012. Tensions in the area often rise due to fishing and patrol activities.
Taiwan: Anti-dumping duties on China-made beer and steel
On 27 June, Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance imposed anti-dumping duties on China-made beer and steel for the next four months, amidst damage caused to Taiwanese industry by Chinese imports. Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Economic Affairs determined that “there is dumping [of these products] and it has caused substantial damage to the domestic industry.” The levies on beer will be from 13.13 to 64.14 per cent, and the duties on steel imports will be from 16.9 to 20.15 per cent. China is the biggest importer of beer to Taiwan, amounting to USD 125 million. It is estimated that more than 70 per cent of Chinese beer is sold in Taiwan.
Taiwan: China criticises President Lai’s remarks on sovereignty
On 24 June, China criticised Taiwan’s President William Lai’s speech encouraging division between the mainland and the island. Lai described Taiwan as a country and spoke of its historical path. He claimed that China lacks legal or historical support for its sovereignty claims over the island. China’s state media called his remarks full of errors and accused him of spreading false ideas. People’s Daily stated the speech was “full of various factual errors and historical fallacies” and was highly provocative and harmful. Beijing’s Taiwan Affairs Office stated that Lai intentionally distorted history to promote the Taiwan independence agenda and that the island had never been a country.
Cambodia: Bans all imports from Thailand
On 22 June, Cambodia’s Prime Minister Hun Manet ordered a pause on all fuel imports from Thailand, effective immediately, over the border disputes. Both countries have had disputes following the exchange of fire in the Emerald Triangle region, resulting in the death of a Cambodian soldier. The ban is also imposed on fuel, natural gas, meat, and alcohol. He added that all energy companies will be able to import energy from other sources. Cambodia’s Foreign Ministry has urged the people not to travel to Thailand unnecessarily, and the Thai people in Cambodia to avoid “protest areas.”
Thailand: Prime Minister Shinawatra suspended
On 1 July, Thailand’s Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was suspended by the Constitutional Court. The court decision came after a group of 36 senators filed a petition against her, accusing her of dishonesty and breaching ethical standards. The tensions began after a leaked politically sensitive phone call between Prime Minister Shinawatra and Cambodia’s President of the Senate, Hun Sen, that was intended to de-escalate the border tensions. Deputy Prime Minister Suriya Juangroongruangkit will take over as a caretaker Prime Minister. Paetongtarn responded to the court verdict: “It's always been my intention to do the best thing for my country. I'd like to apologise to Thai people who are frustrated about this." She added: "My true intention in the leaked conversation, my true intention 100 per cent, was to work for the country to maintain our sovereignty and save the lives of all our soldiers.”
Myanmar: More than 200 foreign nationals rescued from scam compounds in Myaywaddy
On 24 June, the Karen National Army (KNA) confirmed that more than 200 foreign nationals have been rescued from scam centres in the eastern Myanmar-Thailand border. Additionally, the KNA claimed to have repatriated more than 8,000 people in recent months from the Myaywaddy region, and is providing shelter to 216 people from Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar.
South Asia
Pakistan: Counter-Terrorism Department detains three alleged Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army militants
On 2 July, The Nation reported that three suspected militants were detained by the Counter-Terrorism Department in Qasimabad, Sindh. The detained individuals belonged to the proscribed organisation, Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army (SRA). As per the spokesperson of the CTD, one of the detained individuals admitted that he was instructed by Noor Chandio of SRA to assault a “cargo truck trawler.” The detained individuals revealed to the CTD that Noor Chandio controls a network of militants that carry out activities in Karachi and other parts of Sindh province.
Pakistan: 150 cases of enforced disappearances in KP in 2024, HRCP annual report
On 1 July, the Pakistan Human Rights Commission (HRCP) released its Annual Report 2024. As per the report, “human rights conditions” and “security concerns” have further deteriorated in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The report highlights that terrorism continues to pose a major threat and a substantial number of “civilians, law enforcement personnel, and security forces” have lost their lives. As per the report, 150 fresh cases of “enforced disappearances” were recorded in 2024. The report also expressed concerns regarding “labour rights” after 26 miners lost their lives owing to dangerous “working conditions” and assaults from the extremists. Further, close to 30 mine workers were kidnapped by militants. The report also highlighted how more than 100 people were killed because of intense rain and floods.
Pakistan: Heavy rains and floods kill 45 people
On 29 June, The Express Tribune reported that the death toll due to intense rains and floods across the country has risen to 45. Out of the 21 people who lost their lives in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, ten were children. 14 of the reported deaths in KP were from the Swat valley. Punjab has so far reported 13 deaths, out of which eight were children. 11 deaths were reported in Sindh and Balochistan. In May, 32 people lost their lives in storms across Pakistan. The National Emergencies Operation Centre has predicted heavy “rains, windstorms, and thunderstorms” across Pakistan till 5 July. It has issued warnings regarding “flash floods and landslides” in Islamabad, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, northeastern Punjab, and the central region of KP. In the south of Sindh, heavy downpour is predicted, which could lead to “urban flooding.”
Pakistan: “India should engage with Pakistan as a civilised nation,” says the Chief of Army Staff
On 18 June, Dawn quoted Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir: “India should engage with Pakistan as a civilised nation rather than trying to impose its hegemony on the nation.” During an interaction with the Pakistani American community during his visit to the US, he highlighted Pakistan’s support for Iran in its war with Israel while backing US efforts to end the conflict. Further, he alleged that India’s recent cross-border strikes were a dangerous attempt to set a “new normal” and firmly denied Pakistan’s involvement in the Pahalgam attack. Asim Munir allegedly accused India of sponsoring terrorism within Pakistan and benefiting from regional instability. During his interaction, he praised Pakistan’s civilians for their unity with the military during the recent clashes. Separately, on 18 June, Dawn reported that the US State Department has clarified that President Donald Trump’s offer to mediate the Kashmir issue between India and Pakistan is entirely voluntary, and he cannot pressurise either side. Spokesperson Tammy Bruce emphasised that while Trump is willing to help in resolving the long-standing dispute, the decision to accept his help lies with the two countries.
Pakistan: Islamabad rejects India’s claims over Pahalgam, calls for an independent investigation
On 20 June, Dawn reported that Pakistan replied to India on 18 June during the Interactive Dialogue on the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights’ Annual Report in Geneva. Pakistan’s representative denied all the allegations by India over the Pahalgam attack. He stated that India has declined an independent and impartial investigation. The representative argued that India opted for “deliberate and unjustifiable” military strikes on civilians, residences, and places of worship in Pakistan. They used this to fulfil their political motive. He emphasised Article 1 of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) and the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR), which was used by India for the right to self-determination, and claimed that this hinders Pakistan’s fundamental rights.
Pakistan: Armed men attack a Levies post and block the Quetta-Karachi Highway
On 23 June, Dawn reported that armed men attacked a Levies post and took personnel hostage. According to the report, a firefight happened in the Kirdgab area and at the offices of Nadra, the judicial magistrate, and the assistant commissioner. Officials reported that the armed men blocked the Quetta-Karachi Highway in Khadkocha and Kirdgab areas of Mastung district.
The Middle East and Africa
Iran: Breaks off cooperation with the IAEA
On 2 July, Al Jazeera reported that Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian has approved a bill breaking off cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This development follows an earlier legislation approved by Iran’s Guardian Council to “suspend cooperation” with the IAEA. The legislation disallows IAEA nuclear inspectors from visiting Iranian nuclear sites without prior approval from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. This step is a culmination of Iran’s brief confrontation with Israel and the US attack on its nuclear facilities. Earlier, Guardian Council spokesperson Hadi Tahan Nazif had told an Iranian news outlet that this move is to ensure “full respect for the national sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Nazif added that the bill will allow Iran “to benefit from all the entitlements specified under … the Non-Proliferation Treaty, especially about uranium enrichment.”
Sudan: 40 killed in an attack on a hospital in West Kordofan
On 25 June, an attack in the Al Mujlad hospital in Sudan’s West Kordofan state left 40 people dead, including children and health workers. It is one of the country’s deadliest assaults on healthcare since the war began in 2023. The World Health Organisation (WHO) Chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus described the attack as “appalling” and called for an end to violence against medical facilities.
Kenya: Ten killed in the protests; Interior Minister calls it an "attempted coup"
On 26 June, BBC reported that Kenya’s Minister of Interior Kipchumba Murkomen denied allegations of police brutality and labelled the demonstrations an "attempted coup" and "terrorism disguised as dissent." Ten people were killed and over 400 were injured during anti-government protests across Kenya. The injured include 300 police officers. Mukomen called the protestors "criminal anarchists.” He reported that the protestors targeted government installations and offices. Nine police stations were attacked, and five of them were set on fire. According to Amnesty International, 16 people were killed. Protesters demanded accountability against police brutality and chanted "Ruto must go."
Kenya: Three police officers charged over the custodial death of a blogger following countrywide protests
On 23 June, three police officers were charged over the custodial death of Kenya's blogger, Albert Ojwang, who was arrested for allegedly accusing Kenya's Deputy Police Chief, Eliud Lagat, of corruption on social media. Initially, it was reported that he died from self-inflicted injuries, which contradicted the autopsy report that indicated assault. This led to countrywide protests calling for the scrutiny of police brutality. Lagat stepped down from his position temporarily. Protests intensified after a street vendor was shot and injured during one of the protests in Nairobi. The protests also come a year after the violent anti-tax demonstrations.
Mozambique: Al Shabab abducts 120 children, HRW report
On 24 June, Human Rights Watch (HRW) stated that at least 120 children were kidnapped in northern Mozambique by the Al Shabaab militant group. The children were allegedly used to smuggle stolen goods, forced labour, child soldiers or forced into marriage. The government has been trying to control the insurgency in Cabo Delgado since 2017, with the support of Rwanda, South Africa, and other countries. In 2020, the violence worsened when insurgents beheaded dozens of people, including children. Witnesses state that children who were abducted were seen as fighters in the recent attacks. The Norwegian Refugee Council's Secretary General, Jan Egeland, visited Cabo Delgado and said that the situation is a neglected crisis as climate shocks, violence, and hunger impact people.
Somalia: Centennial Vision 2060 launched as a roadmap for peace, prosperity and progress
On 23 June, Somalia's President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre launched Somalia's Centennial Vision 2060 in Mogadishu. This framework aims to promote the economic and institutional development of East African countries, enabling them to become stable middle-income countries within the next 35 years. The UN Economic and Social Commission for Africa's Executive Secretary, Claver Gatete, appreciated Somalia for its roadmap for peace, prosperity, and progress in the face of adversity. He reaffirmed his commitment to supporting Somalia in implementing the vision. Somalia faces fragility and insecurity in some regions, poor infrastructure, environmental degradation, food insecurity, unemployment, displacement, outward migration and poor economic and social indices. Gatete cited Rwanda as an example of transformation post-conflict. Rwanda's infrastructure and economic productivity were stifled, and after the genocide, it worsened. However, it undertook reconstruction and reconciliation to achieve sustainable development.
Ethiopia: Border reopening creates hope between Ethiopia and Eritrea
On 24 June, the Zalambessa border, which separated Ethiopia’s Tigray region and Eritrea, opened after being closed since the 2020-2022 Tigray conflict. This opening was organised by local activists, elders and religious leaders without formal government support. Many people suffered due to displacement, conflicts and lack of peace. Over 55,000 settled near the border. But whether this initiative will lead to broader reconciliation between the two governments remains unclear.
Nigeria: President visits Benue state after the violent attacks
On 18 June, Nigeria's President Bola Tinubu asked the security agencies to counter the perpetrators of the attack during the previous week, which killed 150 people in Benue state. The assailants fired on the villagers and set their homes on fire. The authorities reported that the attackers were herdsmen; farmer-herder clashes are frequent in the region.
Niger: 34 soldiers killed by jihadists at an army base
On 21 June, over 200 jihadist fighters on motorbikes came to the Nigerian army base in Banibangou, and killed 34 soldiers and injured 14, according to the Ministry of Defence. Niger’s military government expelled the US and French forces and turned to Russia and Turkey for their security needs.
Sahel: Hotspot for terrorism in 2025, Global Terrorism Index
On 24 June, according to the 2025 Global Terrorism Index published by the Sydney-based Institute for Economics and Peace, the Sahel region accounted for 51 per cent of global terrorism related deaths in 2024. As per the report, the region is responsible for 19 per cent of worldwide terrorist attacks in 2024. Burkina Faso remains the most affected, with Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) killing 700 people. In Niger, more than 400 died. According to the UN, the death toll is likely to increase in this region.
Europe and the Americas
Ukraine: Russia launches massive aerial weapon attack
On 29 June, The Guardian reported that Russia launched more than 500 aerial weapons across Mykolaiv, Kremenchuk, Zaporizhzhia, Cherkasy Oblast, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Lviv. Ukraine’s air force said that Russia launched 477 drones, 60 missiles. Of the 477, 475 were destroyed. The attack targeted several regions in the front lines and western Ukraine. The Russian military said that the attack destroyed Ukrainian military industrial sites, oil refineries. Zelenskyy commented that Moscow will not stop as long as it can launch massive strikes. On 29 June, Russia’s Ministry of Defence said that the Russian forces conducted massive strikes that included high precision long-range air, sea, and land-based weapons, aero ballistic hypersonic Kinzhal missile systems and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) targeting Ukraine’s military, industrial and oil processing facilities.
Ukraine: Zelenskyy claims Chinese firms aiding Russia in the war
On 25 June, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Chinese defence companies are helping Russia sustain its war against Ukraine. He stated that Ukraine is facing “a network of state and non-state actors” that are “assuring the course of aggression.” He said: “This network includes Russia, North Korea, the current regime in Iran, Chinese companies, and many, many schemes across the world that help produce weapons and carry out operations against our country, our people, and our Europe.” He said: “It’s just not China,” and “Also Taiwan, and some of these parts come from European countries and the United States. And every single component or machine tool delivered to Russian defence sectors helps prolong the war and crimes against peace.”
Lithuania: Signs security alliance with Philippines to foster defence cooperation
On 1 July, Lithuania and the Philippines signed a security alliance amidst growing aggression by Russia and China. The MoU was signed in Manila by Lithuania's Minister of Defence Dovilė Šakalienė and the Philippine Secretary of National Defence Gilberto Teodoro Jr. to foster defence cooperation, particularly in cyber security and defence industries. It covers munitions production and addressing maritime security, the Philippine Department of National Defence said. Šakalienė described Lithuania’s alarm over an emerging "authoritarian axis" of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, which she raised at an international defence forum in Singapore last month. She said: “What we see now is that authoritarian states are cooperating very efficiently." The agreement attempts to build an arc of security alliances in Asia with Western countries to boost the Southeast Asian country’s territorial defence in light of Chinese actions in the South China Sea.
Turkey: 950 personnel deployed to tackle wildfires
On 30 June, Daily Sabah reported on the wildfires that erupted in Turkey. The deployment of rescue workers, supported by helicopters, aircraft and fire trucks, was affected by strong winds and dry conditions. The wildfires were reported in Sakarya's Taraklı district, Bilecik's Gölpazarı district, Izmir’s Seferihisar and Menderes districts and Manisa’s Akhisar district, western Türkiye. Several houses located in Bilecik’s rural zones were damaged or destroyed by the flames. No casualties were reported. It started from the Paşalar locality of the Hacıyakuplar and spread to Bilecik’s Gölpazarı district in the Marmara region. Over 950 personnel were deployed to combat the fire, supported by 174 fire trucks, 16 helicopters and one firefighting aircraft. Turkey's Agricultural and Forest Minister, Ibrahim Yumaklı, said wildfires were now controlled, but wind could be unpredictable.
The US: Chinese AI tools banned under the ‘No Adversarial AI Act’
On 26 June, a bipartisan bill was introduced at the US House of Representatives named ‘No Adversarial AI Act’ to ban the use of AI tools linked to China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea, with a blatant focus on China’s AI platform DeepSeek. The legislation mandates the US Federal Acquisition Security Council to create and maintain a publicly available list of AI models of foreign adversaries, with narrow exemptions for research and to be updated biannually. The bill was introduced following the alleged accusations of cyber espionage, technology theft, and support for China’s military intelligence against DeepSeek.
The US: Texas bans property purchases by nationals of China, Iran, North Korea and Russia
On 22 June, Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed a bill banning citizens of China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia from buying property in the state, unless it is used as a primary home. The law allows visa holders to buy homes only if they live in them. Investment property purchases will not be allowed. Supporters say the move protects Texas from foreign threats. Critics say the law is discriminatory and could lead to racial bias in housing. Activists plan to file a legal challenge, arguing it violates the US Constitution. Texas holds nearly half of all US land owned by Chinese nationals. A similar case in Florida is already under federal review.
About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph and Femy Francis are Project Associates at NIAS. Abhiruchi Chowdhury and Fleur Elizebeth Philip are Research Assistants at NIAS. Aparna A Nair, Santhiya M and Rizwana Banu S are students at Madras Christian College, Chennai. Vaihali Chittrothu is an undergraduate student in the Department of Political Science at St. Ann's College for Women. Brighty Ann Sarah and Preetha R are postgraduate students at Stella Maris College, Chennai. M Kejia is a postgraduate student at Pondicherry University.
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By young scholars of NIAS Course on Global Politics: Contemporary World Order and Theories. Compiled by Sayeka Ghosh.
Akhil Ajith
By the NIAS-IPRI Course scholars on Contemporary Conflicts, Peace Processes, Theories and Thinkers. Compiled by Ayan Datta.
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