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IPRI Team
17 July 2025 |
Conflict Weekly #289&290, 17 July 2025, Vol.6, Nos. 28 & 29
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI
Rohini Reenum and Padmshree Anandhan
Syria: Druze-Bedouin clashes and the Israeli intervention
Rohini Reenum
In the news
On 13 July, clashes broke out between Druze militias and Bedouin tribes in the city of Suwayda in southern Syria. The clashes erupted following the kidnapping of a Druze merchant on 11 July. The kidnapping was followed by retaliatory abductions and attacks, leading to the spread of violence.
On the same day, the Syrian Ministry of Interior expressed concern and stated: “In this context, the Ministry of Interior confirms that units of its forces, in coordination with the Ministry of Defence, will intervene directly in the region to resolve the conflict, stop clashes, impose security, prosecute those responsible for the events, and refer them to the competent judiciary.”
On 14 July, Israel began attacks against Syrian government forces, advancing towards the city of Suwayda to protect the Druze community. Israel’s Minister of Defence, Israel Katz, said that the attacks will continue unless the government forces withdraw. The Syrian Ministry of Interior termed the attacks a grave violation of international law.
On 15 July, Syria’s Ministry of Defence declared a ceasefire following claims of an agreement with Suwayda’s “notables and dignitaries.” However, the Syrian Ministry of Interior announced that Israel-backed armed groups resumed attacks against Syrian security forces.
On the same day, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported that the death toll reached 203, including 71civilians.
On 16 July, Israel launched attacks on the Syrian Ministry of Defence and the Presidential Palace in Damascus, killing three and wounding 34 others.
Issues at large
First, sectarian violence in Syria. Syria is a multi-religious country with a Sunni majority and minority Christians, Alawites, Druze and other communities. Despite being a minority, the Alawites gained political prominence with the rise of the Assad family, which ruled Syria for nearly half a decade. During the pro-democracy protests against the Bashar al-Assad regime in 2011, Assad gave it a sectarian colour, terming the protests an Islamist insurrection backed by foreign powers. The protestors were largely composed of the Sunni majority, and the security forces were dominated by minority Alawites. This sectarian division grew with the progression of the protests into a full-fledged civil war, and the violence perpetrated was viewed as sectarian violence. When the civil war ended in 2024 with the Sunni Islamist rebel group, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) forming an interim government, the fear of persecution among religious minorities in Syria grew. Despite the government’s reassurances, violence broke out against the Alawites (March 2025) and the Druze community (April-May 2025), fueling sectarianism and sectarian violence and compounding fear.
Second, the Druze community in Syria and its apprehensions. The Druze community is an ethno-religious group that emerged from the Shiite Islam faction during the 11th century. The Druze population predominantly reside in the southern province of Suwayda. The province has witnessed a “long-standing feud” between the Druze and the Bedouin tribe, with the outbreak of periodic violence. Following the fall of the Assad regime, targeted attacks against the Druze have increased. In April, the Druze town of Jaramana (near Damascus) was attacked by Sunni groups after an audio criticising Prophet Muhammad attributed to a Druze leader was circulated. During the Syrian Civil War, the Druze community formed militias to fight against the Assad regime. These militias were neither disbanded nor incorporated into the Syrian Army despite efforts, as the Druze community remains suspicious of the new government and its ability to protect the minority communities.
Third, the involvement of the Syrian government and its fallout. The Syrian government’s response to the clashes has drawn Israel’s intervention, which has widened the ambit of the conflict. Second, it has heightened suspicion among the Druze against the new government. They believe that the Syrian security intervened to support the Bedouin tribes. Third, it demonstrated the government’s inability to curb violence and the lack of control over unwieldy territories.
Fourth, Israel’s Druze connection and its intervention. Israel houses the third-largest population of Druze after Syria and Lebanon. They reside predominantly in northern Israel, including the Israel-occupied Golan Heights bordering Syria. The Druze community in Israel is loyal to the state and serves in the military. And, the Israeli state is supportive of and loyal to the community. Israel has previously intervened for the Druze minority in Syria. In May, Israel launched attacks at several sites across Syria, intervening on behalf of the Druze community. On the attacks, Israel reiterated an identical reasoning that it views the Druze as a “political ally.” Additionally, it stated that the intervention is geared towards keeping its border with Syria demilitarised. However, Israeli strikes, previously concentrated in Suwayda, have now expanded to Damascus.
In perspective
First, the instability in Syria. The new Syrian government has called for “national unity” and “domestic peace” and vowed to protect the minorities. However, its inability to incorporate non-state armed groups and to stop sectarian violence has raised doubts over its effective control. A conflict between two sub-national ethno-religious/tribal groups has turned into an inter-state conflict where the newly formed Syrian government feels cornered/obligated to demonstrate its effective control over its southern territories. This marks a serious escalation in the conflict. Additionally, different groups are aiming to carve out their respective areas of influence. The transition from a civil war-ravaged country to a stable government is a complicated process. Unless it is achieved, sporadic violence is likely to continue to plague the new Syria.
Second, Israel’s larger endgame. Israel’s immediate motivations are the protection of the Druze and keeping its border with Syria demilitarised. However, it is likely that, given the history of being geographically surrounded by hostile neighbours, including Syria, Lebanon and Palestine, all of which have housed non-state anti-Israel armed groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, supported by Iran, Israel aims to neutralise this threat once and for all. This stance is reflected in its continuing attacks on Gaza, Lebanon and Syria.
The War in Ukraine: Russia’s attacks continue, despite Trump’s 50-day deadline to Moscow for a ceasefire
Padmashree Anandhan
In the news
On 12 July, US President Donald Trump reached an agreement with NATO leaders to supply weapons to Ukraine. He explained that the US will send weapons to NATO, which will cover the cost and transfer them to Ukraine. Trump said: “We will send them Patriots, which they desperately need, because Putin really surprised a lot of people. He talks nice and then bombs everybody in the evening. But there's a little bit of a problem there. I don't like it.” The Patriot missiles have advanced capabilities to destroy cruise and ballistic missiles.
On 14 July, responding to Trump’s decision to send Patriots, Russia’s spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that while Europe is covering part of the costs, the flow of US weapons and equipment to Ukraine continues.
On 14 July, Trump warned of imposing severe tariffs on Russia if a peace deal with Ukraine is not reached within 50 days. He said that the tariffs would reach 100 per cent and described them as “secondary tariffs.”
On 15 July, in response to Trump's 50-day deadline, Peskov emphasized that Russia will evaluate the implications. Although until now, Russia has not accepted any US ceasefire proposals, Peskov reiterated that Russia is open to negotiate and waits for Ukraine to propose the timing for a third round of talks.
Issues at large
First, the new US sanctions on Russia. The US sanctions targeted Russia’s major sectors. In the financial sector, the US froze USD five billion in Russian central bank assets, cut major Russian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) and banned trading in Russian securities. In the energy sector, Russian oil, gas, coal and enriched uranium imports are banned. In the military and technology sectors, especially in semiconductors, the goods which use US technology are under the sanction. The sanctions additionally extend to Russia’s diamonds and foreign firms helping circumvent sanctions. The EU has aligned with US sanctions, although it lags in the energy sector due to its dependency on Russian gas. However, it has pledged to stop imports by 2027. Besides, the EU holds two-thirds of frozen Russian central bank assets, which it projects to use for Ukraine’s recovery.
Second, the state of sanctions and the Russian response. Sanctions have reduced Russia’s oil and gas revenues, placing central bank assets at risk. However, it has not led to a larger economic collapse or stopped Russia from its ongoing offensive in Ukraine. According to a report by Deutsche Welle, Russia’s GDP witnessed four per cent growth in 2023 and 3.6 per cent growth in 2024, fuelled by war spending. However, this trend is not expected to continue in 2025 and 2026, with GDP expected to decline below two per cent. The effect on Russia’s economy has been in the form of shortages in critical goods. Russia has circumvented the sanctions by using a “shadow fleet” of oil tankers and using Rubles for Yuan. This has helped it to maintain its offensive on the ground. Despite the sanctions and negotiation efforts by the US and European leaders, Russia has managed to continue its offensive in the eastern Donetsk and launch a new offensive in Sumy Oblast. This has shaken the confidence of Trump, who aims to end the war soon.
Third, the extent of military aid to Ukraine. The West has supplied Ukraine with a wide range of advanced air defence systems and missiles to counter Russia’s strikes. But it has not been enough to succeed in an offensive. The military aid is dominated by the US, which provides several Patriot batteries. Meanwhile, NASAMS, IRIS-T, SAMP/T, Crotale, and S-300 surface-to-air missile systems have been delivered by several NATO countries. Thousands of air defence systems, including Gravehawk, Stingers and Starstreaks, have been sent along with hundreds of ASRAAM, Hellfire, and AMRAAM missiles by the US and the UK. Despite these efforts, concerns remain about sustaining Ukraine’s stock and defending against Russia’s continued aerial assaults.
In perspective
First, increased efforts for a ceasefire deal. Under Trump’s presidency, the initial stance on criticising Ukraine for undermining deals and supporting the Russian narrative began to change after May. The continued aerial attacks and no heed for the ceasefire call by Russia slowly garnered frustration from Trump. The two rounds of talks mediated by Turkey aided in prisoner exchange and dead-body swap, but apart from the humanitarian aspect, no ceasefire deal was in place. Russia continues to strongly demand for cessation of annexed Ukrainian territories. This has now led Trump to begin to give real warnings on sanctions and place a deadline to further pressure Russia. However, such threats to come into effect at the negotiation table for a breakthrough still seem a long way.
Second, Putin and Trump’s brief honeymoon. Starting from Trump’s first presidency, the administration has a record of not imposing any sanctions on Russia during 2017-2021. There have been doubts about Russia’s interference in the elections, but Trump and Putin have remained cordial personally. The divergence began to emerge over NATO interests, war in Ukraine and continued non-agreement of Russia to any ceasefire demands by the US. Upon this, the NATO countries pledging to increase defence expenditure, combined with the urge to end the war soon, has pushed Trump to plan for measures against Russia. Thus, signalling a crack in the confidence in Putin.
Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Abhiruchi Chowdhury, Swati Sood, Kasvi Batra, Rizwana Banu S, and Santhiya M
China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Emergency Response Ministry claims USD 9.6 billion lost to natural disasters in 2025
On 15 July, The Straits Times reported that according to China’s Ministry of Emergency Response, the direct economic loss due to natural disasters is estimated to be USD 9.67 billion in 2025. This year, there was an earthquake in Tibet, a landslide in the southwestern province, and flooding in the southern region. According to the ministry, 23 million people were affected, 307 died or are missing, and 620,000 faced emergency evacuation. Additionally, 29,600 houses were destroyed and USD 2.19 million worth of crops sustained damage. The floods caused the most damage, accounting for 90 per cent of this year's total loss of RMB 51 billion.
China: Military patrols conducted near the Scarborough Shoal
On 3 July, Reuters reported that the Chinese military’s Southern Theatre Command conducted a combat readiness patrol around the Scarborough Shoal region in the South China Sea, utilising naval and air forces. Since June, China has been conducting similar patrols, asserting that these actions are crucial for solidifying control over the contested sea and airspace. China reiterated the objective to defend national sovereignty and security. The Philippines has not yet responded to the patrols.
China: Anti-dumping duties imposed on EU brandy
On 4 July, CGTN reported that China’s Ministry of Commerce imposed a five-year anti-dumping tariff on brandy imports from the EU. The ruling concluded the investigation initiated in January 2024, which found that EU brandy imports constituted dumping and threatened China’s domestic industry. China’s dumping margins were determined between 27.7 per cent and 34.9 per cent. The Ministry of Commerce stated that it would not impose duties on EU industry associates and enterprises that comply with the accepted price undertakings. The ministry spokesperson stated that the EU should work together with China to strengthen dialogue and negotiations to create favourable conditions for China-EU economic and trade cooperation.
China: Eight Taiwanese entities added to the export control list
On 9 July, China’s Ministry of Commerce added eight Taiwanese entities to the export list in line with the Export Control Law and the Regulations on the Export Control of Dual-Use Items. The ministry informed that the eight Taiwanese firms are prohibited from selling dual-use items to China, and all relevant exports will come to an immediate halt. The eight firms are: Aerospace Industrial Development Corp, GEOSAT Aerospace & Technology Inc, National Chung-Shan Institute of Science & Technology, JC Technology Inc, CSBC Corporation, Taiwan, Jong Shyn Shipbuilding Co Ltd, Lungteh Shipbuilding Co Ltd, and Gong Wei Co Ltd. The ministry reasoned that these entities have been collaborating with the “Taiwan independence” movement. Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Chen Binhua said: “Taiwan independence' stance, vigorously propagated separatist fallacies, and attempted to 'seek independence by relying on foreign forces.”
Taiwan: President calls for tighter security checks amid Chinese espionage threat
On 5 July, Taiwan News reported on Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te calling to impose tougher measures against suspected Chinese espionage efforts. Taiwanese security agencies informed that the breach has reached the President's Office, the Defence and Foreign Affairs office, the armed forces, and the legislature. Lai informed that they are present across political parties, the DPP and KMT. In March, Lai called for 17 security reforms for stricter residency vetting of all Chinese nationals in Taiwan. This move was heavily criticised by the opposition KMT, stating that Lai attempted to shield his political positioning. Taiwan’s National Security Bureau reported that 159 people have been indicted on suspicion of spying. In 2024, some 64 cases of espionage were reported.
Cambodia: Announces compulsory military conscription from 2026
On 14 July, during a ceremony at the Royal Gendarmerie Training Centre in Kampong Chhnang province, Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet announced the activation of the law on compulsory military service, which was passed in 2006 but was never enforced. Under this law, all Cambodian men aged between 18 to 30 years would be required to serve in the military for 24 months, up from the initial 18 months required by the legislation. Manet associated this decision with increasingly strained relations with Thailand. He stated: “This episode of confrontation is a lesson for us and is an opportunity for us to review, assess, and set our targets to reform our military.” The recent conflict with Thailand along the border started when a Cambodian soldier was killed by Thai Troops in a disputed area known as the Emerald Triangle.
Myanmar: ULFA-I accuses Indian Army of carrying out cross-border drone strikes
On 14 July, the United Liberation Front of Asom-Independent (ULFA-I) accused the Indian Army of carrying out multiple cross-border drone strikes on its eastern headquarters in Myanmar’s Sagaing region. Attacks on ULFA-I’s bases in Nanyun and Lahe townships allegedly killed 19 cadres and injured 19. It is speculated that members of the Revolutionary People’s Front (RPF), the political wing of the People’s Liberation Army of Manipur, were additionally killed. However, the Indian Army has denied the accusation.
Myanmar: Refugees return from Mizoram after withdrawal of Chin rebel groups
On 14 July, refugees from Myanmar sheltered in various districts of Mizoram returned to their villages following the withdrawal of various Chin rebel groups from conflict-hit regions. These rebel groups include the Chin National Defence Force (CNDF), Chinland Defence Force (CDF), and Chin National Army (CNA). The refugees are from three villages of the Falam district in the Chin state of Myanmar– Khawmawi, Rihkhawdar, and Lianhna. They took shelter in the villages of Zokawthar and Saikumphai in the Champhai district of Mizoram in India. The total number of refugees who entered Mizoram since the beginning of the fighting between the Chin National Army (CNA) and the Chin National Defence Force (CNDF) is estimated at 4,400.
Australia: Military Exercise Talisman Sabre begins in Sydney
On 13 July, Australia’s Exercise Talisman Sabre officially commenced in Sydney. The exercise was initially a joint exercise between Australia and the US; however, this year the exercise involved 19 other countries, including India, Indonesia, Germany, Japan, Fiji, Canada, New Zealand, Thailand and Singapore, with Malaysia and Vietnam joining as observers. The exercise, the largest drills carried out by Australia, would additionally take place in Papua New Guinea. The exercise started a day after Australian Prime Minister Antony Albanese’s six-day visit to China.
South Asia
Pakistan: Air Force chiefs discuss military training collaboration with China
On 10 July, SCMP reported that the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) Air Chief Marshal, Zaheer Ahmed Baber Sindhu, met with China’s Chief of Staff of the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) Air Force, Lieutenant General Wang Gang. They discussed the operational synergy between the two branches. Wang was informed of PAF's modernisation and their growing cutting-edge capabilities. Wang commented on Pakistan’s “textbook example of precision, discipline and courage in the face of unprovoked aggression” and the “decisive and measured response delivered by PAF pilots.” He called on the Chinese Air Force to learn from Pakistan’s battle experience in multi-domain operations. Sindhu appreciated the strong bond between the two air forces, rooted in mutual trust, strategic convergence, and shared aspiration for regional stability.
Pakistan: Discusses bilateral defence relations with Indonesia
On 16 July, Indonesia’s Minister of Defence, Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin, met Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif in Islamabad. Sjamsoeddin reaffirmed the country’s willingness to enhance defence cooperation and collaboration with Pakistan, particularly in “defence production.” Sharif reiterated Islamabad’s resolve to enhance cooperation with Indonesia in “joint ventures of investment in mutually beneficial projects.” Sharif spoke about the “longstanding friendship” with Indonesia, “rooted in shared cultural, religious and historical bonds.” He examined the progress of the measures taken under the “Pakistan-Indonesia Defence Cooperation Agreement” and reaffirmed willingness to speed up the “implementation of key areas of mutual interest.” On 15 July, Sjamsoeddin met Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff, Asim Munir, in Rawalpindi. They deliberated on their stances on “regional security, defence cooperation,” and areas to increase defence cooperation. Sjamsoeddin applauded the Pakistani military for its efforts in combating terrorism.
Pakistan: Nine people in Punjab and six people in KP die in rain-related incidents
On 15 July, The Express Tribune reported that the torrential rain during the monsoon season killed nine people in Punjab and six people in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Since June, 111 people have lost their lives in the torrential rains. The densely populated regions continue to face the threat of urban flooding. The director of the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) has asked the municipal and emergency departments to implement their “contingency plans.”
Pakistan: Militants kill nine passengers in Balochistan
On 10 July, nine people travelling in two buses towards Punjab were kidnapped and murdered by unknown militants in Sur-Dakai, Balochistan. The spokesman of the Balochistan government claimed that the attackers were backed by India. As per Dawn, the militants targeted passengers from Punjab. The Balochistan Liberation Front (BLF) claimed responsibility for the attack.
Pakistan: Russia’s recognition of the Taliban government a “matter between two sovereign states,” says the Foreign Office
On 4 July, Pakistan’s Foreign Office called Russia’s recognition of the Taliban government in Afghanistan a “matter between two sovereign states.” Foreign Office spokesperson Shafqat Ali Khan noted the upswing in relations between Russia and Afghanistan. He added that “Russia is an important country in the region” and pointed to Pakistan’s cordial ties with Russia. As per The Express Tribune, the Foreign Office’s response to Russia’s move was “cautious.” Islamabad is yet to send a “full-time ambassador” to Afghanistan. Meanwhile, China appreciated Russia for recognising the Afghan Taliban. China has a full-time ambassador to Afghanistan, and the Afghan Taliban has an envoy in China. Nevertheless, China has yet to recognise the Afghan Taliban.
India: China backed Pakistan during the Operation Sindhoor, says Deputy Chief of Army Staff
On 5 July, The Hindu quoted India’s Deputy Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant General Rahul R Singh, that China used the recent India-Pakistan conflict to test its weapons by providing support to Pakistan. He emphasised that India faced three rivalries during Operation Sindoor--Pakistan as the direct front, with China and Turkey offering crucial backing, including real-time intelligence. He said: "We had one border and two adversaries, actually three. Pakistan was in the front. China was providing all possible support. 81 per cent of the military hardware with Pakistan is Chinese." The Congress party, through Jairam Ramesh, renewed its five-year-long demand for a comprehensive parliamentary debate on India-China relations, which was allegedly consistently denied by the Modi government. Ramesh highlighted the need for a national consensus to address direct and indirect geopolitical and economic challenges posed by China through Pakistan.
Sri Lanka: Seven Indian fishermen apprehended by the Navy
On 13 July, seven Indian fishermen were apprehended by the Sri Lankan Navy for allegedly fishing across the maritime border between the two countries. The Sri Lankan Navy apprehended the crew of the fishing boat on charges of crossing the international maritime boundary. After being apprehended, these fishermen were taken to Kankesanthurai port for further investigation.
Sri Lanka: Cabinet approves for the Navy to independently conduct maritime security operations
On 8 July, Sri Lanka’s cabinet granted authorisation for the Sri Lankan Navy to undertake maritime security operations under the supervision of the Ministry of Defence. This decision sanctioned a proposal given by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake in his capacity as Defence Minister, aiming to protect commercial ships that undergo targeting via pirate activities. Previously, Sri Lanka’s Navy provided similar service, but this was transferred to private contractors. The ports of Galle, Colombo, Hambantota, and Trincomalee are used for the embarkation and disembarkation of the armed maritime guards. Minister Nalinda Jayatissa cited the Sri Lankan Navy’s operational knowledge and experience as the reason behind this decision.
The Middle East and Africa
Iran: European Council sanctions those responsible for targeting Iranian dissidents
On 15 July, Reuters reported that the European Council sanctioned “eight people and one entity” for carrying out targeted assassinations of Iranian dissidents at the behest of the Iranian government. The Council termed the sanctions as directed against “serious human rights violations” and “transnational repression,” and includes a ban on travel and freezing of assets. Among those sanctioned are the Zindashti Network, a criminal group linked to the Iranian Ministry of Intelligence and Security, and Mohammed Ansari, who leads the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force Unit 840. The latter has been responsible for directing targeted assassinations of journalists critical of Iran.
Iran: Parliament rules out nuclear talks with the US until the conditions are met
On 16 July, the Iranian parliament stated that the resumption of nuclear talks with the US was contingent on the latter meeting some “preconditions.” However, the statement did not clarify what the preconditions are. Previously, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi indicated that some of the preconditions include the following: the US must assure not to attack Iran again, Iran will not give up nuclear enrichment, and the Iranian ballistic missile programme would not be discussed as part of the negotiations. So far, five rounds of “indirect negotiations” have taken place between the two sides, with no conclusive consensus or deal reached.
Separately, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and the foreign ministers of France, Germany and the UK have decided end of August as a deadline for reaching a nuclear deal with Iran. If no deal is achieved by the deadline, the “snapback” mechanism under the 2015 nuclear deal will be activated, and all sanctions lifted as part of the deal will be re-imposed on Iran.
Sudan: War Crimes occurring in Darfur region, says ICC
On 12 July, the International Criminal Court at the United Nations Security Council reported that there are “reasonable grounds” to prove war crimes and crimes against humanity being committed in Sudan’s Darfur region. ICC Deputy Prosecutor Nazhat Shameem Khan presented findings to the UNSC, citing over 7000 pieces of evidence and testimonies from the survivors who fled to Chad.
Eritrea: UNHRC rejects bid to end human rights probe
On 5 July, the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) rejected Eritrea’s attempt to shut down an independent probe on alleged human rights abuses. Eritrea’s motion argued that the alleged human rights violations were not systemic and blamed “capacity constraints,” a common issue in other developing countries. The Human Rights Watch called Eritrea’s failed move a “distraction” from its rights violations. This motion was defeated with four votes in favour, 25 against, and 18 abstentions.
Rwanda: President Kagame sceptical of the US peace deal in eastern DRC
On 5 July, Rwandan President Kagame cautiously welcomed the US-brokered peace deal between the DRC and Rwanda and added that it would retaliate if provoked. During the news conference, Kagame said that Kigali will commit to the agreement but questioned Kinshasa’s commitment to the peace deal. He said that if the deal fails, the US isn’t the one to blame. The agreement was signed the previous week. It calls for the withdrawal of Rwandan troops in the eastern DRC within 90 days.
Europe and the Americas
France: Defence spending to double to EUR 64 billion by 2027
On 14 July, the BBC reported that France’s President Emmanuel Macron announced a significant increase in defence spending. During a speech to the armed forces, Macron proposed raising the defence budget by EUR 3.5 billion in 2026 and EUR three billion in 2027, aiming to double it from EUR 32 billion in 2017 to EUR 64 billion by 2027. He said: “To be free in this world, you must be feared. To be feared, you must be powerful.” Macron additionally denounced Russia’s “imperialist policies.”
Germany: Chinese ship accused of laser targeting aircraft
On 8 July, Germany summoned China’s ambassador after a Chinese ship was accused of laser targeting German aircraft. The German Federal Foreign Office stated: “Putting German personnel at risk and disrupting the operation is completely unacceptable.” Germany’s Federal Ministry of Defence informed that the aircraft were taking part in the EU's ASPIDES mission aimed at protecting international sea routes in the Red Sea and providing flying eye reconnaissance.
Europe: Heatwaves result in EUR 790 billion loss across Germany, Italy, France and Spain
On 5 July, a study revealed that Europe experienced over EUR 790 billion economic losses due to climate change issues from 1980 to 2023, according to a new European Environment Agency (EEA) report. Germany suffered the highest financial losses during this period, with costs amounting to EUR 180 billion, followed by Italy at EUR 135 billion, France at EUR 130 billion, and Spain at EUR 97 billion. Meanwhile, Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Portugal, Romania, and Slovenia incurred similar total losses between EUR 12 billion and EUR 15 billion. The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimated that the climate extremes increased in many European regions and were projected to continue rising with further global warming. Floods and heat waves were the primary causes of economic damage across the EU. Western and central European countries, such as Slovenia, Belgium, and Germany, experience higher losses per square kilometre, while eastern and northern countries like Finland and Estonia tend to suffer less financially.
Ukraine: Russia and Ukraine exchange drone and missile attacks
On 6 July, Ukrinform reported on Russia and Ukraine exchanging large-scale drone attacks, disrupting Russia’s air travel and causing civilian casualties. According to Russia’s civil aviation authority, Ukrainian forces targeted multiple locations inside Russia, including six drones over Moscow and two near St. Petersburg, prompting temporary airport closures and flight delays. Meanwhile, Russian drone strikes injured civilians in Kyiv and Kharkiv and damaged port infrastructure in Mykolaiv, though no deaths were reported. In the eastern Ukrainian town of Kostyantynivka, another Russian glide bomb and drone attack was reported, killing four. On 5 July, Ukraine's military claimed that it struck the Borisoglebsk airfield in Russia’s Voronezh region. According to the report, a glide bomb depot, training aircraft, and military jets, including Su-34s, Su-35Ss, and Su-30SMs, were targeted. While the extent of the damage could not be independently verified, Ukrainian forces said the strike was part of ongoing efforts to degrade Russia’s ability to launch attacks on civilian infrastructure. Voronezh Governor Aleksandr Gusev confirmed the damage.
Ukraine: Attacks continue across Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia
On 7 July, Ukrinform reported on Russia’s drone strike killing one and injuring 71 people in Kharkiv Oblast. According to the report, the attacks were targeted in two sets, damaging residential buildings, a kindergarten, and a regional military draft office. Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov said that in the second set of attacks, six Shahed drones targeted residential streets, vehicles, and civilians. On 7 July, Zaporizhzhia’s Regional Governor Ivan Fedorov reported on another drone strike by Russia, injuring at least 20 and damaging dozens of residential buildings. A similar attack was observed in Odesa city, Poltava and Kryvyi Rih. The target includes military enlistment facilities, which help in mobilisation and recruitment for Ukraine’s military.
The US: Think tank suggests military withdrawal from Taiwan
On 9 July, a US-based think tank, Defence Priorities, suggested that the US withdraw all military personnel from Taiwan. It noted that although Taiwan has increased its defence spending, the US's willingness to carry an additional burden does not stand in the core interest. It suggested that the current position of the US on Taiwan is offence-oriented and that this will lead to escalation rather than deterring Chinese aggression. US Assistant Secretary of Defence for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs John Noh said: “Arming Taiwan and strengthening Taiwan’s defence capabilities is extremely important for not only the defence of Taiwan, but for strengthening our posture and re-establishing deterrents.”
The US: Floods in Texas kill 134
On 16 July, ABC News reported that the death toll due to the severe floods in Texas reached 134. The heavy floods began on 4 July and hit the hardest in Kerr County, killing 107 people, including 37 children. On 11 July, Trump visited the region amid the growing question about the federal response to the crisis. Trump stated: "We mourn for every single life that was swept away in the flood, and we pray for the families that are left behind," the president added. "It's amazing, the incredible spirit from those families." The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is facing scrutiny for its delayed response to the disaster. CNN quoted four FEMA officers that it ran into bureaucratic obstacles while preparing to deploy critical search and rescue teams.
About the authors
Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph and Femy Francis are Project Associates at NIAS. Abhiruchi Chowdhury is a Research Assistant at NIAS. Swati Sood and Kasvi Batra are Research Interns at NIAS. Santhiya M and Rizwana Banu S are students from Madras Christian College, Chennai.
Special Issue
Akshath Kaimal
NIAS Global Politics Team
Preetha Renganarayanan
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella
Mahesh Bhatta
Radhika M Agarwal
Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi
Aparna A Nair
Lekshmi MK
Dhivya KM
NIAS Global Politics Team
Dhivya KM
Adwaith Sankar
Avaneesh S
Lekshmi MK
Global Politics Team
Deb Dutta
Preetha Renganarayanan
Anu Maria Joseph
Padmashree Anandhan
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella
Avaneesh S
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Deb Dutta
Acsah H
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Yesasvi Koganti
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella
Brighty Ann Sarah
Radhika M Agarwal
Anwesha Ghosh
Adarsh Vijay
Lakshmi Venugopal Menon
Ramya B
Himani Pant
Shreya Upadhyay
Anand V
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Radhika M Agarwal
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella
Anu Maria Joseph
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Avaneesh S
Aparna A Nair
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella
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Siddhi Halyur
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Acsah H
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Brighty Ann Sarah
Rohini Reenum
Akshath Kaimal
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Glynnis Winona B
Akshath Kaimal
Radhika M Agarwal
Deb Dutta
Brighty Ann Sarah
Anu Maria Joseph
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Lekshmi MK
Yesasvi Koganti
Glynnis Winona B
Aishal Hab Yousuf
Nithin V
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Aishal Hab Yousuf
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Ada Khan
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Brighty Ann Sarah
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Brighty Ann Sarah
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Global Politics Team
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NIAS Global Politics Team
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Nanda Kishor M S
Adarsh Vijay
Nishchal N Pandey & Mahesh Raj Bhatta
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TWTW Special Edition
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Padmashree Anandhan
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Global Politics Team
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By young scholars of NIAS Course on Global Politics: Contemporary World Order and Theories. Compiled by Sayeka Ghosh.
Akhil Ajith
By the NIAS-IPRI Course scholars on Contemporary Conflicts, Peace Processes, Theories and Thinkers. Compiled by Ayan Datta.
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