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IPRI Team
21 August 2025 |
Conflict Weekly #295, 21 August 2025, Vol.6, No. 34
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI
Padmashree Anandhan, Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha and Rohini Reenum
Trump-Zelenskyy-European Leaders meeting: Tough discussions and the difficult road ahead
Padmashree Anandhan
In the news
On 15 August, US President Donald Trump and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin held a meeting in Alaska to discuss on war in Ukraine and Russia-US bilateral relations. Following the talks, the leaders held a press conference where both called the talks “productive.” The expectations to reach an agreement on a ceasefire or any concessions in favour of ending the war were not met. In the joint statement, Putin said: “Conflict resolution in Ukraine to be long-term and lasting, all the root causes of the crisis…all of Russia’s legitimate concerns must be taken into account.” Trump said: “I would say, a couple of big ones that we haven't quite gotten there, but we've made some headway. So there's no deal until there's a deal.”
On 16 August, following the call with Trump, the European Commission jointly pledged strong support for Ukraine. The statement stressed the need for “ironclad security guarantees” to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
On 18 August, following the meeting held between Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders, with Trump. An immediate ceasefire was ruled out by Trump, and he assured to give security guarantees for Ukraine. On the same, Zelenskyy said that security guarantees for Ukraine are expected to be finalized within 10 days, including a USD 90 billion US weapons package and an agreement for the US to purchase Ukrainian-made drones.
On 18 August, in the meeting between Trump, EU leaders and Zelenskyy, the prolonged direct talks were proposed in a trilateral format. However, the extent of support is unknown. During the meeting, UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer hailed “real progress,” highlighting two key outcomes. One, joint US-European work on security guarantees for Ukraine and two, the direct talks with a focus on territory, prisoners and children.
On 19 August, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov emphasized that any potential meeting between Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and must be “thoroughly prepared.” On 19 August, Trump ruled out US troop commitments as part of security guarantees but indicated that the US might support European efforts with other forms of assistance, particularly air support.
On 20 August, on the security guarantees, Lavrov responded: “Without Russia, talks on security guarantees will lead to nowhere.” On the same day, NATO defense leaders held a meeting to discuss security guarantees. Italy’s Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone said: "On Ukraine, we confirmed our support. Priority continues to be a just, credible and durable peace."
Issues at large
First, a brief note on Trump-Zelenskyy talks till now. Since Trump’s Presidency, the nature of engagement with Zelenskyy has been intense, except for the recent one. Starting from Trump blaming Ukraine for prolonging the war to the clash in the Oval Office. Trump has shown high reluctance in aiding Ukraine in military and political negotiations. Since the minerals deal and the gradual gathering of the EU leaders under the “Coalition of willing” to support Ukraine, Trump’s interaction with Zelenskyy has mellowed. From banning military aid to assuring security guarantees and helping bring Putin to the table, Trump has taken heed to stop the war on the ground.
Second, military aid and security guarantees for Ukraine. West’s support has developed slowly, mostly on a reactive basis. Till not the US, EU and NATO have provided USD 250 billion in aid, combining military, economic and humanitarian. In the last two years, the support has been limited to keep Ukraine’s defence, but also expanded into advanced air defences such as F-16 and long-range missiles. Direct troop deployment has been ruled out, although the UK, France, Germany and Poland have agreed to sustain their military assistance, intelligence sharing and defence industrial cooperation through security agreements to Ukraine.
Third, European unity. France, the UK and Germany, which formed the “Coalition of Willing” did not initially seem like a solid strategy to garner support for Ukraine. Over the months, the coalition has grown to 31 countries, aligning with core principles. It includes “…no recognition of territorial changes by force, commitment to long-term security and no peace deal without Ukraine.” Apart from this, Germany, the UK and France have taken extensive efforts to fix the transatlantic equation and help in building a united EU consensus. This has helped position Europe as a united actor to strengthen Ukraine at the political and ground level while also shaping Europe’s security landscape.
In perspective
The tough road ahead for Ukraine. Putin and Zelenskyy have met only once in 2019 in the Normandy format set up by France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine. The meeting aimed at putting an end to the conflict in Donbas, where both agreed to withdraw troops by 2020, conduct elections in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions and reintegrate Ukraine. It was seen as historic in 2019; however, except for the prisoner exchange, the deal did not last long. The Normandy format dialogue was initiated again in 2022 but, the leaders were not present. At present, with Trump agreeing to mediate the trilateral, the first direct talk between Zelenskyy and Putin will be seen as an ice breaker but without either of them agreeing to forgo a part of the territorial claims, the deadlock to end the war will continue, with the meeting being only symbolic.
The War in Gaza: The Ceasefire Conundrum, Attack on Gaza City, and Israel’s new settlement plans
Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha
In the news
On 20 August, an Israeli military spokesperson said: “We have begun the preliminary operations and the first stages of the attack on Gaza City, and already now IDF forces are holding the outskirts of Gaza City." Israel has also called upon 60,000 reservists set to report by September.
On 19 August, Israel responded that the ceasefire proposal was still under review, while several far-right members of the Netanyahu cabinet, including National Security Minister Itamer Ben Gvir and finance minister Bezalel Smotrich rejected the partial deal. Earlier, on 18 August, Egyptian and Qatari officials stated that Hamas accepted the new 60-day ceasefire proposal that included the return of ten living and 18 deceased Israeli hostages, in exchange for the return of 200 Palestinians. The proposal demands the partial withdrawal of Israeli forces and the flow of humanitarian aid into the territory.
On 14 August, Smotrich approved construction of 3,401 houses for Israeli settlers in the E1 area settlement project. On 20 August, Israel issued the final approval for the project. Smotrich stated that “the Palestinian state is being erased from the table not with slogans but with actions,” and that “every settlement, every neighbourhood, every housing unit is another nail in the coffin of this dangerous idea.”
On 17 August, thousands of Israelis joined a nationwide strike in support of families of hostages held in Gaza, calling on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to secure a deal with Hamas to end the war and release the remaining captives.
Issues at large
First, the plan to reoccupy Gaza and the threat of displacement. The UN has warned that relocation of Gaza residents to the south of the enclave, which Israel states as a safety measure, will only deepen humanitarian suffering, especially as no part of Gaza is truly safe. According to the UN, over 1.9 million, nearly 90 per cent of the population of Gaza have already been displaced since the war began. The threat of permanent displacement grows increasingly real with Israel’s advancing settlement plans and its new offensive plan to seize control of northern Gaza City, the enclave's largest urban centre.
Second, the Hamas approval and Israeli rejection of the ceasefire. Israel’s acceleration of plans to re-occupy Gaza has forced Hamas to come forward for a ceasefire agreement that, as stated by Qatari sources, aligns mostly with the terms of the previous deal proposed by Witkoff. However, Israel’s commitment to a diplomatic resolution of the conflict is questionable. As Israel implements the first steps of its re-seizing of Gaza through military offensive and the reoccupation of the West Bank through the E1 project, another Israeli rejection of a negotiation is a likely outcome.
Third, background to the E1 area settlement project. Israel’s finance minister Bezalel Smotrich approved construction of 3,401 houses for Israeli settlers in the E1 area settlement project which would connect Jerusalem and the existing Israeli settlement of Maale Adumim. The project would divide the occupied West Bank into northern and southern regions, preventing the creation of a contiguous Palestinian territory linking occupied East Jerusalem to key cities including Bethlehem and Ramallah. Israel postponed the plan in 2022 under US pressure, but Netanyahu’s far-right government has advanced road projects and restricted Palestinian access in recent months. Palestinians fear the surge in West Bank settlement building, which has accelerated since the 2023 Hamas attack, will rob them of any prospects for statehood. It has raised international alarm with the UN Human Rights office and the European Commission spokesperson stating it’s a violation of international law.
In perspective
First, Israel's tough position on the ceasefire and the hostages. Israel’s hardline reluctance to accept the ceasefire deal and hostage negotiations, coupled with its re-occupation of Gaza, indicate a shift that prioritizes territorial control over diplomatic resolution. The expanded military operation and takeover of Gaza without the recovery of the hostages have put the Israeli government in a tough spot domestically, as the population grows increasingly impatient towards the prolonged occupation of Gaza. Israel’s tough position on the ceasefire and aid blockades endangers the well-being of the remaining hostages.
Second, Israeli settlement expansion plans and what they mean for Palestinian statehood. The proposed E1 settlement project marks more than just a territorial issue; it is a significant political obstacle to the two-state solution. If completed, the settlements would bisect the West Bank, threatening the possibility of a contiguous, viable Palestinian state. The newly proposed Israeli settlements would further complicate the question of a sovereign territory for the Palestinian people.
Armenia-Azerbaijan: A Peace Deal, Transit Corridor and the US interests
Rohini Reenum
In the news
On 18 August, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian met Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Armenia and conveyed apprehensions over the transit corridor. The transit corridor, Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), is part of the US-brokered peace deal signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan on 8 August, ending a four-decade-long conflict. Pezeshkian stated: “Governance in the Caucasus region must remain Caucasian – outsourcing the resolution of Caucasus issues to extra-regional forces will complicate it.”
On the same day, Pashinyan responded: “Roads passing through Armenia will be under the exclusive jurisdiction of Armenia, and security will be provided by Armenia, not by any third country.”
On 8 August, upon the signing of the peace deal, US President Trump remarked: “The countries of Armenia and Azerbaijan are committing to stop all fighting forever; open up commerce, travel and diplomatic relations; and respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
On 9 August, Russia commended the peace deal, however, cautioned that “the involvement of non-regional players should strengthen the peace agenda, not create new divisions.” Turkey welcomed the deal, terming it a “very beneficial development.” Iran cautiously welcomed the deal. However, it rejected the proposed corridor passing near its border, terming it “worrying” and “political treachery.”
Issues at large
First, a brief background to the conflict. The conflict has been over the control of Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave in Azerbaijan with a majority ethnic-Armenian population. Originally part of the Russian Empire, Nagorno-Karabakh was renamed by the Soviet Union as the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region under the Soviet Socialist Republic of Azerbaijan. The conflict began with the breakdown of the Soviet Union in the 1980s. While Azerbaijan sought control over Nagorno-Karabakh, the latter’s regional parliament voted for an independent republic in 1991. In 1992, a full-scale war broke out over the issue and lasted until a Russia-brokered ceasefire in 1994. Armenia gained control of the region and adjoining Azerbaijani territories. Nagorno-Karabakh has remained a flashpoint between the countries ever since. In 2020, a second war broke out with an Azerbaijani offensive. A Russia-brokered ceasefire ended the war, with Armenia agreeing to return all occupied territory outside the former Soviet Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region to Azerbaijan. Russian peacekeepers were stationed at the Lachin Corridor, connecting Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia. In 2023, an Azerbaijani offensive recaptured Nagorno-Karabakh, causing a mass exodus of Armenians from the region. This, however, started negotiations for the current peace agreement.
Second, previous attempts at a peace deal. The first major attempt to end the conflict was the creation of the OSCE Minsk Group in 1992, with co-chairmanship of France, Russia and the US. The Group met Armenian and Azerbaijani delegations several times, but no resolution was reached. After the 2023 offensive, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev called for a complete dissolution of the Minsk process, claiming that the conflict had been resolved with Baku recapturing the region. The second attempt was the finalisation of a draft Agreement on Peace and the Establishment of Interstate Relations in March 2025. However, a few points of contention remained. Azerbaijan demanded that Armenia amend parts of its constitution that claim Azerbaijani territories. Armenia remained apprehensive of the Azerbaijani demand for a transit corridor linking Nakhchivan enclave, bordering Türkiye. In July, leaders of both countries met in the UAE to resolve the contentions; however, yielded no results.
Third, the proposed transit corridor and the US interest. The corridor conundrum was resolved by the US proposal to develop a transit corridor between the two countries. The White House said that the corridor would be leased for 99 years, and US companies will engage in investments and infrastructure development. The TRIPP corridor fulfilled Azerbaijan’s demand to connect with its enclave and assuaged Armenia’s apprehensions regarding its territorial sovereignty. The proposed corridor would become a key geo-economic asset for the US. Forbes has estimated that the corridor could generate around USD 50-100 billion in annual trade flows.
Fourth, the sidelining of traditional regional players-Russia, Turkey and Iran. Russia was a traditional mediator and security guarantor in the region with overt support for Armenia. However, Russia’s preoccupation with the Ukraine War and failure to stop the Azerbaijani offensive in 2023 caused its decoupling with Armenia. The failed Minsk process reduced its involvement in the peace process. This was reflected in Putin’s failed reattempt to mediate a peace deal in 2024. Turkey, which backed Azerbaijan in the conflict and was part of the Minsk process, was not consulted in the recent peace negotiations. Iran, which is a key Armenian ally and neighbour, was excluded from the peace process.
In perspective
First, the roadblocks to the peace deal. The main issue that can arise is non-adherence to the proposed and promised terms by the two countries. Any protracted conflict has points of contention that reappear intermittently and have the potential to sabotage the peace process. The next roadblock could be the nature of the US involvement or its discontinuance. Given the centrality of the proposed corridor in resolving the strategic demands and concerns of both parties, the success of the peace deal would rely partly on the success of the TRIPP. Another roadblock could arise from the exclusion of traditional players which not only border the countries but also have significant economic stakes in the region, with their spheres of political influence.
Second, the rise of Trump as a peace-broker. This deal has cemented Trump’s image as an unconventional peacemaker with geo-economic opportunism as his tool and low-hanging fruit for the parties involved. This method, however, has a significant drawback. The success of the peace deal is contingent upon the economic gambit delivering its due in time.
Third, the US inroad into the South Caucasus. With the existing presence of US’s two historical foes in the region, namely Russia and Iran, there are fears, with good reason, that this might turn the South Caucasus into a theatre of geopolitical rivalry, destabilizing the entire region.
Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Abhiruchi Chowdhury, Kasvi Batra, Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Lekshmi MK, Aparna A Nair, M Kejia, Rizwana Banu Vaihali Chittrothu and Santhiya M
China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Reopens border trade with India; PM Modi to attend the SCO summit
On 19 August, according to The Hindu, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, “striking a note of reconciliation,” commented on the bilateral relationship facing an “important opportunity.” At the 24th Special Representatives talks with the Chinese Foreign Minister, India’s National Security Advisor Ajit Doval stated that “the bilateral engagements between the two countries have been more substantial." He has confirmed that Modi will be attending the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Tianjin on 31 August and 1 September. China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi is set to meet Modi before the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit. He has assured China’s support to “India’s need for fertilisers, rare earths and tunnel boring machines,” reported Reuters.
On 14 August, Bloomberg reported that India and China discussed resuming the border trade of domestic goods after more than five years. This showcases the steady revival of ties after the 2020 Doklam standoff. Both countries have proposed to restart trade through the designated point on the shared border. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said: “Border trade between China and India has long played an important role in improving the lives of the two countries’ border residents,” and that “willing to step up communication and coordination with India.”
North Korea: Kim Jong Un calls for rapid expansion of nuclear armament as US-South Korea joint military drills commence
On 19 August, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un called for a rapid expansion of his country’s nuclear arsenal, calling the US-South Korea military drills “an obvious expression of their will to provoke war.” The two began their 11-day annual Ulchi Freedom Shield exercises this week. South Korea said 20 of the 40 field events were rescheduled to September, as President Lee Jae Myung seeks to ease tensions. On 18 August, Kim stated that the security environment necessitated North Korea to "rapidly expand" its nuclear arsenal, pointing out that recent US-South Korea exercises involved a "nuclear element." President Trump and Lee are expected to address North Korea’s nuclear program in Washington in their upcoming summit on 25 August. In 2024, the Federation of American Scientists estimated that North Korea could produce enough fissile material for as many as 90 nuclear warheads, and it had likely built closer to 50. Pyongyang is expanding its navy, aiming to launch a third 5,000-tonne Choe Hyon-class destroyer by October 2026 and testing cruise and anti-air missiles for the ships.
The Philippines: Expands defence cooperation with Australia through the largest joint exercises
On 15 August, the Philippines and Australia launched their largest joint military exercises amid rising tensions in the South China Sea. The drills, taking place from 15–29 August in Palawan province, directly face the disputed waters. According to the Philippine military, the exercises will involve around 3,600 personnel from both countries and feature additional participation from the Royal Canadian Navy and the US Marine Corps. Officials described the program as the “most extensive and complex” version of the bilateral defence exercise since its establishment.
Thailand: Announces legal action against Cambodian leaders Hun Sen and Hun Manet over border clashes
On 18 August, Thailand’s acting Prime Minister Phumtham Vechayachai announced that the government will pursue legal proceedings against former Cambodian leader Hun Sen and current Prime Minister Hun Manet for allegedly breaching Thai sovereignty through military action. The decision, made after a National Security Council meeting, aims to address damage caused to Thai citizens and property. Complaints will be collected by the Royal Thai Police and Provincial Police Region 3 Command, then forwarded to the Office of the Attorney-General. Phumtham stressed that the action falls under Thai law and will not involve the International Court of Justice, whose jurisdiction Thailand does not recognise. The lawsuits will be filed as “temporary detention” cases, enabling Thai authorities to issue arrest warrants if the "accused" enters the country.
South Asia
Pakistan: Counter-Terrorism Department neutralise three TTP militants in KP
On 14 August, the Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) initiated an intelligence-based operation in Regi Lalma, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, to hunt down militants belonging to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). As per the officers of CTD, the militants were preparing to carry out assaults at the border between the provincial capital, Peshawar and Khyber districts. The operation resulted in CTD neutralising three militants. Four militants managed to escape. Further, the CTD officials informed that one of the neutralised militants was a citizen of Afghanistan and was a “wanted militant.”
Separately, in Lakki Marwat, three miscreants assaulted FC personnel. As per the police, two FC officials and one civilian were killed.
On 15 August, in a separate incident in DI Khan, gunmen attacked a hotel. The armed men killed two officers from the Excise Department. Police sealed the area and initiated a “search operation” to hunt down the culprits.
Pakistan: German Foreign Ministry appeals to Islamabad to take back deported Afghan refugees
On 19 August, Dawn reported on the remarks from Germany's Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the resettlement of Afghan refugees. The spokesperson of the ministry, Josef Hinterseher, informed that around 200 Afghan refugees, sent back from Pakistan to Afghanistan, are looking to re-settle in Germany. The refugees were earlier promised refuge in Germany. However, after Friedrich Merz assumed the position of chancellor in Germany, the country moved towards a stricter “immigration policy.” According to Hinterseher, Germany is requesting that Pakistan allow the deported refugees to return to Pakistan. Addressing the media, he said: “We are continuing to talk to Pakistan to facilitate the return of those who have already been deported.” During Olaf Scholz’s government, Germany came up with a scheme that would assist the Afghans who had helped “German institutions and their families.” The scheme has been suspended by the current Merz government, which has resulted in aggravating the problems of around 2000 Afghan refugees stuck in Pakistan, waiting to be resettled in Germany.
Pakistan: Government to clamp down on illegal residents
On 18 August, The Express Tribune reported that the concerned authorities would be initiating a clampdown against “illegal foreigners” residing in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Attock, Murree, and Haripur. According to the plan, data of illegal foreigners would be accumulated, and their mobile phone SIM cards would be blocked. The illegal residents would not be permitted to participate in property and other financial activities. Further, the deputy commissioners and district police heads of the above-mentioned districts will have to send in “weekly progress reports.” This came during a high-profile meeting of the “special task force” presided over by Islamabad Chief Commissioner Muhammad Ali Randhawa. A “centralized database” would also be formulated, which would prevent illegal foreigners from resettling.
Pakistan: Amendment in the Anti-Terrorism Act to allow detention based on suspicion
On 13 August, the National Assembly gave its assent to an amendment in the Anti-Terrorism Act (ATA), 1997. The amendment has authorised the law enforcement agencies and armed forces to hold up “suspicious individuals” for a maximum period of three months. In 2014, an amendment was brought to the ATA that gave power to civil armed forces and the army to detain people based on suspicion. Nevertheless, the amendment was valid for only two years and expired in 2016. As per the Associated Press of Pakistan, 125 members in the National Assembly voted in favour of the bill, whereas 59 members opposed it. Pakistan’s Minister of Law, Azam Nazeer Tarar, informed the Assembly that the power to detain individuals based on suspicion will be used “only in specific situations.” PTI leader Asad Qaiser criticised the bill, highlighting how the same could be “misused” for silencing the government dissenters. JUI-F chief Maulana Fazlur Rehman denounced the bill and claimed that the law would authorise the law enforcement agencies to detain individuals.
Pakistan: Militants attack gas pipeline in Lakki Marwat, KP; supply to Punjab disrupted
On 13 August, militants in Lakki Marwat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, blew up a gas pipeline. According to the police, this led to a disruption in the supply of gas to Punjab. The spokesperson from the police informed that they have launched a “search operation” to hunt down those responsible for the blast. Previously, in July, militants had targeted a gas pipeline near Wanda Amir, which resulted in a temporary disruption in the supply of gas to Punjab. Similar attacks took place in June. Lakki Marwat has witnessed several militant attacks since 2000. Although the operations initiated by the security forces did bring some peace in the region, terrorist attacks in the past few years have increased substantially.
The Middle East and Africa
Lebanon: Hezbollah says Beirut “will have no life” if it attempted to confront or eliminate the group
On 15 August, Hezbollah stated that there would be “no life” in Lebanon if the government attempted to confront or disarm the Iran-backed group. The previous week, the Lebanese government tasked the army with restricting weapons to state forces by a US-backed plan, following Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah. However, the group insists that disarmament cannot occur until Israel halts strikes and withdraws from southern Lebanon, which had been a Hezbollah stronghold. In a televised speech, deputy leader Naim Qassem declared that Lebanon’s sovereignty must be built “together,” otherwise “Lebanon will have no life if you stand on the other side and try to confront us and eliminate us.” Prime Minister Nawaf Salam called the remarks unacceptable, stating that it was an implicit threat of civil war. Israel’s strikes over the last two years have killed senior Hezbollah figures, including former leader Hassan Nasrallah, and nearly 5000 of its fighters. Qassem stated that the government is trying to implement an "American-Israeli order to eliminate the resistance, even if that leads to civil war and internal strife.” While Hezbollah holds strong support among Lebanon’s Shi'ite community, there have been increasing calls for its disarmament across the rest of society, says Reuters.
Sudan: SAF accused of torture and execution amid escalating war crimes
On 18 August, a Sudanese human rights group, Emergency Lawyers, accused the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and security forces of torturing people and operating execution chambers in Khartoum. The group documented hundreds of arbitrary arrests. Many victims were later found dead after torture. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is also indulging in similar atrocities. The UN fact-finding mission confirmed widespread patterns of arbitrary detention, torture and ill-treatment by both factions.
Democratic Republic of Congo: ISIL-affiliated ADF rebels kill 52 civilians in eastern Congo
On 19 August, the United Nations Organisation Stabilisation Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUSCO) reported that the ISIL-backed Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels killed at least 52 civilians in the eastern DRC between August 9 and 16. MONUSCO condemned the violence and warned that the death toll might increase. The ADF, originally formed by Ugandan rebels, joined ISIL in 2019. The violence has been intensified despite the joint military efforts by Uganda and the DRC under Operation Shujaa.
Democratic Republic of Congo: M23 rebels withdraw from peace talks in Doha
On 19 August, the M23 rebel group suspended the peace talks with the DRC government, citing the government’s failure to uphold a recent ceasefire agreement signed in Qatar. The talks were scheduled to happen on 18 August, but M23 representatives didn’t attend. The M23 spokesperson, Lawrence Kanyuka, accused the DRC government of continued military assault despite the ceasefire’s terms. The DRC military countered that the M23 rebels are launching daily attacks in North and South Kivu.
Nigeria: 40 people missing after a boat capsizes in Sokoto
On 18 August, Al Jazeera reported that over 40 people went missing after a boat carrying more than 50 passengers capsized in Nigeria’s southwestern state of Sokoto. The National Emergency Management Agency confirmed that ten people were rescued. In July, 16 farmers died when a canoe capsized. These repeated incidents highlight the urgent need for safety regulations and enforcement in Nigeria’s inland waterways.
Cape Verde: State of emergency declared after deadly floods kill nine people
On 14 August, Cape Verde declared a state of emergency on the islands of São Vicente and Santo Antão after floods caused by a tropical storm. The storm led to a downpour of 193mm of rain in five hours and killed at least nine people and displaced nearly 1500 people. Rescue teams are searching for the missing people, while roads and houses were severely damaged.
Mali: Military rule enters its fifth year
On 19 August, Mali marked five years since the ruling military overthrew Mali's democratic government. The coup initially promised an 18-month transition to civilian rule, but five years on, the junta is still in power. Initially, General Assimi Goita promised to free Mali from insurgents, but many towns are still under the control of insurgents. Recently, Mali reduced its ties with the former colonial countries but increased its cooperation with Russia, Turkey, China, Iran and North Korea.
Mali: French national arrested over spying for alleged coup plot
On 16 August, Mali’s military government arrested a French national, Yann Vezilier, and accused him of spying for France and aiding a plot to destabilise the country. The security minister, Gen Daoud Aly Mohammedine, announced the arrest on national television and claimed that the person was acting on behalf of French intelligence. At least 55 soldiers have been arrested in connection with the alleged coup attempt. The military government later claimed that the conspiracy had been thwarted.
Europe and the Americas
Europe: Wildfires across Spain and Portugal; Six people reported dead, and more than 500,000 hectares destroyed
On 19 August, France24 reported on the death of six firefighters across Spain and Portugal. The Iberian Peninsula witnessed extreme wildfires due to a heatwave. Thousands of firefighters have been deployed across southern Europe in the past weeks to combat. However, more than 343,000 hectares (848,000 acres) of land in Spain and 216,000 hectares in Portugal have been destroyed, according to the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS), since 2025. On 14 August, Euronews reported that the EU's solidarity requests to combat the rampant wildfires had already matched the total activations of the EU’s civil protection mechanism for the entire 2024 fire season. Spain became the first country to activate the mechanism, joined by Greece, Bulgaria, Albania, and Montenegro in seeking urgent assistance. The EU coordinated deployments include planes, helicopters, and pre-positioned firefighting teams (650 personnel from 14 countries) to aid the battle against fires that have scorched over 511,000 hectares, more than double the area burnt by mid-August.
Venezuela: The US to deploy warships to combat drug cartels, reports Reuters
On 19 August, Reuters reported that three US Aegis guided-missile destroyers will arrive off the coast of Venezuela in the next two days. It is speculated that the ships are the USS Gravely, USS Jason Dunham and the USS Sampson. Additionally, over 4,000 American soldiers and US Marines are expected to be deployed in the southern Caribbean region. This development is part of the Trump administration’s ongoing efforts to counter security threats from Latin American drug cartels to achieve the wider objective of limiting illegal migration from the southern border of the US. Previously, multiple efforts have been made by the administration in the domain of border security and drug trafficking, including deployment of over two warships, designation of prominent drug cartels as global terror organisations, immigration enforcement against alleged cartel members, enhanced airborne surveillance of Mexican drug cartels, and usage of naval assets to carry out intelligence and surveillance operations. In response, on 18 August, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro asserted that Venezuela will defend its seas, skies and lands against what he described as an “outlandish, bizarre threat of a declining empire."
About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph and Femy Francis are Project Associates at NIAS. Abhiruchi Chowdhury is a Research Assistant at NIAS. Kasvi Batra is a Research Intern at NIAS. Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha are postgraduate students at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. Lekshmi MK is a postgraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. Rizwana Banu, Santhiya M and Aparna A Nair are undergraduate students at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. M Kejia is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Pondicherry University, Pondicherry. Swati Sood is an undergraduate student at Vivekananda College, University of Delhi. Vaihali Chittrothu is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science, St Ann's College for Women, Hyderabad.
Special Issue
Akshath Kaimal
NIAS Global Politics Team
Preetha Renganarayanan
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella
Mahesh Bhatta
Radhika M Agarwal
Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi
Aparna A Nair
Lekshmi MK
Dhivya KM
NIAS Global Politics Team
Dhivya KM
Adwaith Sankar
Avaneesh S
Lekshmi MK
Global Politics Team
Deb Dutta
Preetha Renganarayanan
Anu Maria Joseph
Padmashree Anandhan
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella
Avaneesh S
NIAS Global Politics Team
Deb Dutta
Acsah H
NIAS Global Politics Team
Yesasvi Koganti
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella
Brighty Ann Sarah
Radhika M Agarwal
Anwesha Ghosh
Adarsh Vijay
Lakshmi Venugopal Menon
Ramya B
Himani Pant
Shreya Upadhyay
Anand V
NIAS Global Politics Team
Radhika M Agarwal
Madhura Meenakshi Tanikella
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Avaneesh S
Aparna A Nair
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Glynnis Winona B
Nithin V
Aishal Hab Yousuf
Glynnis Winona B
Aishal Hab Yousuf
Nithin V
Siddhi Halyur
Siddhi Halyur
NIAS Global Politics Team
Acsah H
Aishal Hab Yousuf
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Brighty Ann Sarah
Rohini Reenum
Akshath Kaimal
Anu Maria Joseph
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Aparna A Nair
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Glynnis Winona B
Akshath Kaimal
Radhika M Agarwal
Deb Dutta
Brighty Ann Sarah
Anu Maria Joseph
Global Politics Team
Lekshmi MK
Yesasvi Koganti
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Global Politics Team
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NIAS IPRI
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Global Politics Team
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NIAS Global Politics Team
NIAS Global Politics Team
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Nanda Kishor M S
Adarsh Vijay
Nishchal N Pandey & Mahesh Raj Bhatta
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Amrita Jash
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TWTW Special Edition
IPRI Team
Abhimanyu Solanki
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Padmashree Anandhan
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Global Politics Team
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Global Politics Team
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IPRI Team
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Global Politics Team
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Global Politics Team
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Global Politics Team
Global Politics Team
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Global Politics Team
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IPRI Team
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By young scholars of NIAS Course on Global Politics: Contemporary World Order and Theories. Compiled by Sayeka Ghosh.
Akhil Ajith
By the NIAS-IPRI Course scholars on Contemporary Conflicts, Peace Processes, Theories and Thinkers. Compiled by Ayan Datta.
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