CWA # 1830
Conflict Weekly
A breakthrough in Gaza and an instability in Madagascar
Conflict Weekly 303, 16 October 2025, Vol 6, No. 42
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IPRI Team
16 October 2025
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Photo Source: EPA
Conflict Weekly #303, 16 October 2025, Vol 6, No. 42
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI
D Suba Chandran, Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha and Rizwana S Banu
A breakthrough and its challenges in Gaza: The low-hanging fruits and the tough nuts
D Suba Chandran, Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha
In the news
On 9 October, following the negotiations in Egypt, Hamas and Israel agreed to an exchange deal, as part of US President Trump’s 20-point proposal. According to media reports, both sides agreed to the following: release of hostages by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners by Israel; cessation of hostilities, and a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. According to the agreement, within 72 hours of the cessation of hostilities and redeployment of Israeli forces, all 48 hostages are to be released. On 10 October, the Parliament of Israel approved the agreement signed the previous day. Israel had agreed to pull back its forces to a predetermined position.
On 13 October, Hamas released 20 living hostages it had taken two years ago. On 14 October, media reports indicated Hamas was attempting to take control across Gaza and executing members of rival armed factions. According to a Reuters report, Hamas was taking control of a few neighbourhoods, leading to internal tensions and armed clashes.
On 15 October, Hamas handed over more bodies of hostages. The US President was quoted to have stating that if Hamas “don't disarm, we will disarm them.” He also warned that the disarmament of Hamas “will happen quickly and perhaps violently.”
Issues at large
First, the release of hostages by Hamas and political prisoners by Israel. The 20-point plan addresses core sticking points in the negotiations since the breakdown of the earlier ceasefire, but divides them into achievable early steps and deep-seated challenges (which is left for later). The first, hostage and prisoner exchanges, represents the low-hanging fruit: a relatively standalone humanitarian issue that mediators could isolate from broader demands, allowing quick wins to build momentum. Hamas had long tied hostage releases to a comprehensive deal encompassing Gaza's future and Palestinian statehood aspirations, viewing them as leverage for existential gains. Israel, conversely, insisted on delinking, prioritizing returns without concessions on governance or security. The prisoner swap, proportional to hostages, was not a core strategic concession for Israel, unlike demands for full troop withdrawal or Hamas disarmament. Instead, it was a symbolic gesture, signalling reciprocity to facilitate the deal without fundamentally altering Israel's security stance. With severe offenders deported or barred from the West Bank, Israel mitigated risks to its security, making the swap politically and operationally palatable.
Second, the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza raises the threat of a security vacuum and the potential return of Hamas. According to the latest agreement, Israel is expected to withdraw its troops from Gaza and has maintained a hardline position on any future role for Hamas in the region. As per Trump’s 20 points, once the hostages are released and Israeli troops are withdrawn, Gaza is to be governed by a technical committee with no role for Hamas. Over the last two years, military operations by Israel have bulldozed not only the infrastructure in Gaza, but also its governance structures – pro-Hamas or otherwise. In the absence of any alternate governance structures and with the proposed technical committee being a long-term plan far from immediate realization, the resulting power vacuum is likely to provide space for Hamas’ internal dominance, posing significant challenges to stability. According to media reports, there are already internal struggles within Gaza, with Hamas attempting to take over areas inside the territory.
Third, disarming of Hamas and denying a role for it in Gaza’s future governance. This has become a primary objective of Israel’s approach to ceasefire efforts. During the initial period of war, Netanyahu's primary objective was the release of hostages. However, later, neutralising Hamas and not providing any space in the governance became an equally important war objective. Trump’s 20 points have explicitly recognised it. The latest threat of disarming Hamas, even if it has to be done “violently”, is a serious threat to Hamas.
In perspective
First, the plucking of low hanging fruits. The first week of Trump’s new initiative has been a success. It has achieved two important milestones – pressuring Hamas to release all remaining hostages and forcing Israel to release Palestinian prisoners. In addition, Israel has also agreed to relocate its defence forces and stop conducting military operations in Gaza. Both are important developments and mark a significant breakthrough in the two years of war in Gaza.
Second, the tough nuts and the challenges ahead. Disarming Hamas and not allowing its return to Gaza will be an immediate challenge. The next challenge would be – how to govern Gaza. Though Trump’s plan talks about a non-political technical committee, this is not likely to happen immediately. An International Stabilization Force to monitor is also not going to happen in the short term. Both would need time, and how Hamas would respond during this period will be a challenge for Trump, Israel, and the other negotiators from the Middle East. Reconstruction and rebuilding of Gaza will be a long-term challenge, leading to addressing their political aspirations.
Political instability after protests in Madagascar: President Rajoelina flees, as an elite military force calls the shots
Rizwana S Banu
In the news
On 13 October, the BBC reported that President Andry Rajoelina fled the country following three weeks of violent anti-government protests.
On 14 October, CAPSAT, an elite military wing, took over the power after Rajoelina’s flight. Colonel Michael Randrianirina declared: “We are taking power.” It suspended the constitution and announced the formation of a transitional government. Meanwhile, the protesters have welcomed the military takeover.
On 15 October, Colonel Michael Randrianirina was appointed as the interim president of Madagascar by the High Constitutional Court following the military's takeover.
On 15 October, UN Secretary António Guterres expressed deep concerns over the unconstitutional change of power in Madagascar.
On 16 October, the African Union suspended Madagascar, stating: “The rule of law must prevail over the rule of force.”
Issues at large
First, a brief background to the recent protests. The military takeover comes as the protests cross a third week. The protests were initially against the frequent power cuts and water shortages in the capital, Antananarivo. Later, it spread across the country and evolved into a broader anti-government protest over socio-economic issues, including unemployment and bad governance. The protesters belong to Generation Z or the young population born between 1997 and 2012. According to the UNFPA, the youth population of Madagascar is 21.7 million, which is two-thirds of the population. According to Federal Reserve Economic Data, the youth unemployment rate in the country stands at 5.39 per cent in 2024. The young population facing unemployment, amidst bad governance, have triggered the Gen Z protests. However, the lack of a centralised leadership and structure has challenged the protests in coordinating actions, articulating demands, and sustaining the movement over time.
Second, Madagascar’s political history of persistent instability. Madagascar has undergone multiple coups and transitional governments since its independence from France in 1960. The persistent political instability is attributed to bad governance, corruption and clientelism, which weakened political institutions and caused widespread public discontent. The first coup was in 1972, when President Philibert Tsiranana was overthrown by the military. In 1991, President Didier Ratsiraka was forced to resign following the mass protests. In 2009, following violent protests, then-President Marc Ravalomanana was overthrown by Andry Rajoelina, then mayor of Antananarivo, with the support of elite military unit CAPSAT. The 2025 political crisis mirrors these earlier events.
Third, the role of CAPSAT. Corps d’Armée pour la Sauvegarde de la Transition (CAPSAT) is an elite military unit within Madagascar’s national army. It is tasked with protecting key government officials, handling security missions and counterinsurgencies, including crisis intervention. It received recognition during the 2009 political crisis. CAPSAT played a crucial role in overthrowing the then-government, and backed Rajoelina to seize power and head the transitional government. Over the years, CAPSAT maintained its influence, strength and nurtured close ties with political elites, evolving from a purely military unit into a politically powerful institution. Its members are highly organised, politically involved, and strategically placed to intervene in times of crisis, giving the unit a unique role in Malagasy politics.
Fourth, regional and international positions. The African Union responded by suspending Madagascar, reflecting its commitment to preventing unconstitutional power grabs. Neighbouring countries seem restrained as they have only maintained a watchful stance and urged for mediation and stability. Globally, the United Nations condemned the state’s violent response to protesters, reflecting its commitment to maintaining peace and stability. The regional and global responses were limited to mediation and diplomatic pressure.
In perspective
First, the protests in Madagascar are likely to recur as the root causes are embedded in deep socio-economic issues that are affecting a large section of the population, particularly Generation Z. Unless the transitional government address the structural issues, the unrest may prolong. The widespread backing for the military-led government in Madagascar reflects people’s frustration with the past civilian governments.
Second, in the short term, CAPSAT’s intervention can likely bring order. Civilians perceive the military as a stabilising force, capable of restoring the law and order that the elected representatives failed to resolve. This also increases the risk of another military-run authoritarian government in Africa similar to Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso.
Third, in the long term, without a meaningful strategy for inclusive governance, economic development, Madagascar will continue to witness protests, coups and political upheaval.
Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph, Rohini Reenum, Femy Francis, Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Lekshmi MK, Aparna A Nair, M Kejia, Rizwana Banu and Vaihali Chittrothu
China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: MOFCOM imposes export control on the rare earths
On 9 October, China’s Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) announced that it will impose export controls on the sale of rare earths and other related technologies. These include rare-earth mining, smelting and separation, magnetic materials, and secondary resource recycling. MOFCOM said: “In line with the country's laws and regulations, including the Export Control Law and the Regulation on the Export Control of Dual-use Items, the ministry has decided to impose export controls on rare earth-related technologies.” And that “Technologies and relevant data related to rare earth mining, smelting and separation, metal smelting, magnetic material manufacturing, and rare earth secondary resource recycling, as well as the assembly, debugging, maintenance, repair, and upgrade of related production lines are prohibited from export without permission.” This provision aims to safeguard national security. It is expected that China will block exports to foreign arms firms and semiconductor industries.
China: 14 US firms sanctioned under national security threat
On 9 October, SCMP reported that China’s Ministry of Commerce imposed sanctions on Western companies and institutions amid trade tensions with the US. The ministry said: “Fourteen entities, mostly headquartered in the US, were added to Beijing’s unreliable entity list on Thursday, banning them from trade and investment in China.” Under the sanction, Chinese companies are prohibited from engaging in any transactions with these firms, particularly in data sharing and sensitive information. This comes after China announced that they are imposing export controls on the sale of rare earth materials and technologies. The Ministry said: They “have engaged in so-called military-technical cooperation with Taiwan, made malicious remarks about China and assisted foreign governments in suppressing Chinese companies.”
China: Trump announces additional 100 per cent tariffs from November in retaliation for the rare earth export control
On 10 October, US President Donald Trump announced an additional 100 per cent tariffs on imports from China from next month. This comes after China announced export control rules on the sale of rare earths. Trump responded that China is becoming hostile and holding the world “captive.” He also threatened that he would pull out of the meeting that is supposed to happen next month with China’s President Xi Jinping. Trump’s remarks led to a drop in the financial market, with the S&P 500 going down by 2.7 per cent. Additionally, China is planning to investigate the US tech firm Qualcomm and its chip industry in China.
Taiwan: President Lai unveils plans for “T-Dome” air defence system
On 10 October, Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te unveiled plans for the "T-Dome" air defence system during his National Day speech in Taipei. This dome aims to protect the island against escalating threats from China. The multi-layered "T-Dome" will integrate advanced detection and interception capabilities to create a robust safety net for citizens, countering Beijing's superior arsenal of stealth jets, carriers, and missiles. President Lia Ching-te emphasised the urgency, stating: "The increase in defence spending has a purpose; it is a clear necessity to counter enemy threats and a driving force for developing our defence industries." The Taiwanese government will propose a special military budget by year-end to accelerate construction, amid China's rejection of President Lai as a "separatist" and ongoing cross-strait tensions. Beijing is yet to respond to President Lai’s statement.
South Asia
Pakistan and Afghanistan: Military clashes along the border kill 58 Pakistani soldiers
On 11 October, military clashes took place along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. A spokesman of Afghanistan’s Taliban government stated that Afghan troops conducted armed operations in various locations and captured multiple Pakistani border posts. Further, the spokesman said that 58 Pakistani soldiers were killed in “an act of retaliation” and over 30 soldiers were wounded. Additionally, the spokesman for the Afghan Ministry of Defence accused Pakistan of violating Afghan airspace and conducting airstrikes on Afghan territory, following an air strike over a market in Kabul. In response, Pakistan conducted counterattacks with artillery firing. It is reported that Pakistan has also captured numerous Afghan border posts. Pakistan’s Interior Ministry stated that Federal Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi strongly condemned “unprovoked firing” by Afghanistan on Pakistani territories, warning that his country's forces would respond “with a stone for every brick.” This development comes amidst Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s six-day visit to India.
Pakistan: Terrorists attack police training centre in Dera Ismail Khan
On 11 October, The News International reported that a police training centre in Dera Ismail Khan was attacked by eight terrorists. The police training center was inaugurated by Chief Minister Ali Amin Khan Gandapur this year. The gunfire exchange, followed by a loud explosion, shook the police training facility. In retaliation, security forces, the Pakistan Army, and Frontier Corps (FC) personnel joined the police forces in the ongoing operation. Police confirmed the killing of three unidentified terrorists, including a suicide bomber. Meanwhile, the bodies of three Marwat-Bettani Qaumi Tehreek (MBQT) leaders were found near the Tochi Bridge; they were abducted by armed men near Bannu Cantonment. These leaders were demanding the water rights from the Baran dam. The MBQT, which comprises the Marwat and Bettani tribes of Lakki Marwat, was formed to demand water rights from the Marwat Canal, which is currently in a dry condition, and to advocate for peace in the area. The MBQT chief alleged that the police and security forces did not respond to the abduction.
Pakistan: Civilians killed in Bajaur crossfire between security forces and militants
On 11 October, Dawn reported that in Bajaur, which was earlier a part of the former Federally Administered Tribal Area, four civilians, including two women and one child, became victims of a gunfire exchange between security forces and militants, while many other children were injured. The gunfire exchange lasted for several hours, killing a few terrorists. An editorial in The Express Tribune emphasised that “Pakistan's enigma, as it faces an uptick in terrorism, is owing to its failure to implement the National Action Plan. The gap in the governance process in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, in particular, is responsible for the revulsion, and its "cost is being paid by the blood of security forces.”
India and Australia: Defence Minister Rajnath Singh visits Canberra; agrees to boost maritime security and defence industry cooperation
On 9 October, during the two-day visit to Australia, India’s Defence Minister Rajnath Singh held talks with his Australian counterpart Richard Marles on further expanding bilateral strategic ties. The two leaders reviewed cooperation across cyber defence, maritime domains, and regional challenges, reaffirming the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership. Both countries have signed a pact for mutual submarine rescue operations, enhancing maritime security amid Indo-Pacific tensions. The leaders also pledged deeper ties in defence technology and industry, with India proposing to service Australian naval vessels in its shipyards. Marles said: "All of that is taking our high-level strategic alignment and taking this to a much deeper operational level." He emphasised that two defence forces would increase information sharing. Rajnath Singh wrote on X: “Had a productive meeting with Australia’s Deputy PM & Defence Minister. We reviewed the full spectrum of India-Australia defence cooperation, including defence industry, cyber defence, maritime security, and regional challenges.”
The Middle East and Africa
The War in Gaza: Hamas tightens grip amid internal unrest; Israel kills six in new clashes
On 14 October, Hamas intensified its control across Gaza, carrying out public executions of alleged collaborators and cracking down on rival armed factions and clans challenging its authority. Reuters reported that Hamas fighters have re-established their presence in key neighbourhoods as part of a wider show of power. Local sources said internal tensions and armed clashes have increased in recent days, clouding prospects for a long-term ceasefire. Meanwhile, Israel said its forces opened fire on suspects in northern Gaza, killing six Palestinians in two incidents. The UN expressed concern over the escalation and urged restraint. Israel said its forces targeted “armed operatives.” Hamas denounced the attack as “aggression against civilians,” while regional mediators called for de-escalation and resumption of peace talks.
The War in Gaza: Hamas frees the hostages, Israel releases Palestinian prisoners, Trump lands in Egypt for a Peace Summit
On 13 October, Israel and Hamas exchanged hostages and prisoners under the first phase of the ceasefire deal. Israel freed the first set of Palestinian prisoners after Hamas released the last 20 living hostages from Israel. Under the deal, Israel is set to release 250 Palestinians, and 1,700 Palestinians detained in Gaza since the war began, 22 Palestinian minors, and the bodies of 360 militants. President Trump, addressing the Israeli Parliament, stated that a "long nightmare" for both Israelis and Palestinians was over. He is set to attend the summit in Egypt with 20 world leaders to deliberate on the execution of the next steps under Trump's 20-point blueprint. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s office issued a statement clarifying that he will not be attending the summit "due to the timing's proximity to the beginning of (a Jewish) holiday." Additionally, President Trump stated that Hamas had been allowed to carry out internal security operations it is conducting in the Gaza Strip, saying the group wants "to stop the problems" and "we gave them approval for a period of time.” The group has deployed forces in several parts of the Gaza Strip since a ceasefire came into effect, citing the aim of stopping lawlessness and looting and preventing a security vacuum. Reuters reported that Hamas forces have killed 32 members of "a gang" in Gaza City in a security campaign, suffering six fatalities in their own ranks. The operation had led to the arrest of 24 people and 30 others being wounded.
Sudan: Drone strikes in El-Fasher killed 57
On 13 October, a drone strike at the Dar al-Arqam displacement camp in El-Fasher killed 57 people, including 17 children. Civil society and the activists blamed the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The UN warned that continued attacks may constitute war crimes. With over 150,000 dead and 12 million displaced countrywide, Sudan’s humanitarian crisis worsens as the RSF seeks full control of Darfur.
DR Congo: Tshisekedi urges Kagame to end support to M23 in a public peace appeal
On 10 October, at the EU’s Global Gateway Forum in Brussels, DRC President Félix Tshisekedi made a direct appeal to Rwandan President Paul Kagame to halt support for the M23 rebel group. Addressing Kagame publicly, Tshisekedi called for an end to hostilities in eastern DRC, citing the humanitarian toll and urging a shift toward peace and development. The plea, delivered before global leaders, heightened diplomatic pressure amid a long-running conflict that has killed thousands and displaced millions.
The Sahel: Over four million people displaced amid insecurity and climate change, warns the UN
On 11 October, the UN reported that nearly four million people have been displaced across Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and neighbouring Sahel countries. Women and children encompass 80 per cent of those affected, facing gender-based violence, forced recruitment, and arbitrary detention. This led to the closure of 15,000 schools and 900 health facilities. The UNHCR stated that it requires USD 409.7 million in aid but has received only 32 per cent of it.
Europe and the Americas
The War in Ukraine: Kremlin welcomes President Trump’s peace focus; President Zelensky to seek new arms; Russia reports seizing eastern village
On 14 October, the Kremlin welcomed US President Donald Trump’s renewed focus on pursuing peace in Ukraine following the Gaza ceasefire, saying Moscow supported any initiative aimed at ending hostilities. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky confirmed plans to meet President Trump in Washington to discuss air defence systems and advanced weapon deliveries, emphasising Ukraine’s urgent need for long-range capabilities. On the battlefield, Russia claimed to have seized control of Balahan village in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region, continuing its slow territorial push. Kyiv has not verified the claim.
The War in Ukraine: Kremlin warns of “dramatic escalation” over Tomahawk missiles; Financial Times says, US intelligence aids Kyiv's energy attacks
On 12 October, the Kremlin cautioned the West that supplying Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles would mark a “dramatic escalation” in the war, especially given some variants’ capability to carry nuclear payloads. Russia's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said such a move could draw severe consequences and increase tensions across all fronts. Meanwhile, the Financial Times, citing US and Ukrainian sources, reported that US intelligence has been instrumental in aiding Ukraine to strike energy infrastructure deep inside Russia, providing data on route planning, timing, altitude, and vulnerabilities of targets.
The War in Ukraine: Russia launches mass strikes across Ukraine, targeting dwellings and energy facilities
On 10 October, a large Russian missile and drone assault struck across Ukraine, damaging civilian dwellings and energy infrastructure. In Kyiv and multiple regions, power outages and water disruptions followed, with authorities reporting temporary electricity loss across nine regions. Many were injured as residential buildings, power lines, and fuel networks came under fire. Ukraine’s air defences intercepted hundreds of drones and missiles, but the vast volume overwhelmed systems. These attacks on critical infrastructures underline Moscow’s push to degrade civilian resilience ahead of winter. Ukraine's officials condemned the strikes as “terror against civilians,” urging stronger Western air defence support, while the European Union called the attacks a “violation of international humanitarian law.” Russia, however, stated it was targeting military and energy facilities.
Russia: Ukraine launches drones across Russia's oil facilities
On 13 October, an oil terminal in Feodosia, which is in the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula, caught fire after a drone strike, which Ukraine is being blamed for. A Ukrainian security official, who wished to remain anonymous when speaking to Reuters, reported that drones launched by Ukraine’s SBU intelligence service and military special forces hit at least five oil tanks. The attack also aimed at two Russian electrical substations on the peninsula, which were taken from Ukraine back in 2014.
Ukraine: President Zelensky reports gains in Donetsk
On 9 October, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukrainian forces inflicted frontline losses on Russian troops in the Donetsk region, while Moscow mounted heavy defences. He added that Russian gasoline supplies may have fallen by one-fifth after strategic strikes on fuel infrastructure. It has increased pressure on the Kremlin’s energy mobilisation.
Venezuela: Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado wins Nobel Peace Prize for her role in advancing the transition to democracy
On 10 October, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado received the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize “for her tireless work promoting democratic rights for the people of Venezuela and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy,” the Norwegian Nobel Committee stated. Machado, a 58-year-old industrial engineer, won a decisive victory in Venezuela’s 2023 opposition primary election, drawing widespread public support. However, she was barred from running against President Nicolás Maduro in the 2024 election and subsequently went into hiding. The electoral authority declared Maduro the winner, although no detailed tallies were released, in the backdrop of stark economic and social crises. His 12-year rule is viewed by many countries as illegitimate. The elections were widely rejected internationally as neither free nor fair, and led to nationwide protests. Despite being barred, Machado united the divided opposition behind Edmundo González. The government-controlled National Electoral Council declared Maduro the winner, despite polling data showing González’s landslide victory. “I thank you so much, but I hope you understand this is a movement, this is an achievement of a whole society. I am just one person. I certainly do not deserve it,” stated Machado. The UN human rights office called the award a reflection of “aspirations of the people of Venezuela for free and fair elections.” The Nobel Committee noted: “When authoritarians seize power, it is crucial to recognise courageous defenders of freedom who rise and resist.” Human Rights Watch stated the award could increase global pressure on the Maduro administration.
About the authors
Rohini Reenum is a PhD Scholar at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan, Anu Maria Joseph and Femy Francis are Project Associates at NIAS. Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha are postgraduate students at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. Lekshmi MK is a postgraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. Rizwana Banu, and Aparna A Nair are undergraduate students at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. M Kejia is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Pondicherry University, Pondicherry. Swati Sood is an undergraduate student at Vivekananda College, University of Delhi. Vaihali Chittrothu is an undergraduate student at the
