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IPRI Team
30 October 2025 |
Conflict Weekly #304&305, 31 October 2025, Vol 6, No. 43 & 44
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI
Conflicts and Peace This Week: Five Major Developments
Anu Maria Joseph and D Suba Chandran
1. The War in Ukraine: Attacks on energy infrastructure, Russia's nuclear-powered missile tests and Trump's response and Zelenskyy-Startmer meeting
As of 31 October, according to Russia's defence ministry, its forces have taken control of Kranohirske in the Zaporizhia region and Sadove in the Kharkiv region. On 23-24 October, it carried out 650 drone and 50 missile attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, killing seven people and causing countrywide power restrictions. Ukraine claimed that Russia is targeting energy infrastructure to "plunge Ukraine into darkness" in the coming winter. On 26 October, Russia successfully tested the nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile, a weapon that Russia claims possesses unlimited range, an unpredictable flight path and can pierce any defence shield. US President Donald Trump responded that Putin should end the war instead of testing the nuclear-powered missile and that the US has positioned a nuclear submarine off Russia's coast. Kremlin responded that the move was guided by Russian "national interests." On 26 October, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited London and called for more sanctions against Russian oil companies. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer reaffirmed the UK's unwavering support for Ukraine and called on Ukraine's allies to go ahead with the plan to seize Russian frozen assets to fund Ukraine and "finish the job."
2. Sudan: The fall of el-Fasher
On 27 October, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seized control of el-Fasher from the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The SAF has lost its last remaining hold in the Darfur states. El-Fasher connects to neighbouring countries of Libya, Egypt and Chad, and other eastern Sudanese cities. The development has increased fear that the new geographic shift in the civil war will be an advantage for the RSF to consolidate its parallel government in the western Sudan, with Darfur as a centre. Meanwhile, the UN has reported the RSF committing "summary executions" in el-Fasher. According to the WHO, 450 civilians have been killed. The UN, the AU and the EU have raised concerns and condemned the atrocities against civilians. The RSF's Arab affiliation and history of involvement in the Darfur genocide in 2004 have increased concerns of targeted atrocities against non-Arab communities and other civilian resistance.
3. A breakthrough in Southeast Asia: Thailand and Cambodia sign an agreement – the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord
On 26 October, the Prime Ministers of Thailand and Cambodia signed an agreement in Malaysia on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit, and with US President Trump being present. Referred to as the Kuala Lumpur Peace Accord, it builds on an earlier ceasefire (July 2025) between the two countries over the border clashes early this year. (See our Special Note below on the subject in this issue of Conflict Weekly). Both countries have agreed to withdraw the heavy weapons and also work on the demining. An ASEAN Observation Team is expected to oversee the implementation of the agreement. The agreement, on the positive side, underlines the role played by ASEAN and the US. However, doubts remain on its success; the core of the bilateral question – the Preah Vihar temple and its surroundings – whom do they belong to and how to access it, remains the primary one. Both countries are likely to face domestic pressure on the nature of the agreement and its implementation.
4. Another breakthrough in Istanbul: After a few failed attempts, Pakistan and Afghanistan agree to extend the ceasefire
On 30 October, Pakistan and Afghanistan agreed to extend the ceasefire deal that the two countries had signed earlier in Doha. Mediated by Turkiye and Qatar, Pakistan and Afghanistan had a tough week, until Islamabad and Kabul finally decided to extend the ceasefire. According to the agreement, Pakistan and Afghanistan have agreed to place a monitoring and verification mechanism to maintain peace, and also to impose a penalty if the terms are violated. Both have agreed to discuss further modalities later on 6 November. The primary difference was Pakistan wanting the Taliban to commit in writing that the latter would not support the TTP; for Afghanistan, the primary issue was establishing a verification mechanism. (See the Special Note below, in today’s Conflict Weekly issue). Though the agreement establishes a ceasefire, there are larger issues over which the two countries differ. And more importantly, the recent clashes highlight the rupture of the relations between Pakistan and the Taliban.
5. Dangers of a breakdown: In Gaza, military strikes by Israel, and Hamas' delay in handing over hostages’ bodies, strain the second phase of the agreement
Despite signing an agreement with Hamas, during this week, Israel conducted major military strikes in Gaza. According to local reports, more than 100 people were killed in the military strikes. According to Israel, the target of the strikes was Hamas militants. Israel’s PM Netanyahu has further warned of further powerful actions against Hamas. On the other hand, Hamas was accused of delaying the handing over of the bodies of the hostages it had taken. According to Hamas, there are operational problems in retrieving the bodies from the rubble, which is delaying the handover. With Israel warning of the delay as a violation and Netanyahu calling for further strikes, the ceasefire is in trouble.
Pakistan and Afghanistan: Military Strikes, Border Clashes and Ceasefire Talks
Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi
In the news
During 7-9 October, the TTP ambushed a Pakistani military convoy in Kurram district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, killing 11 soldiers. Pakistan responded with airstrikes in Kabul and three other Afghan provinces. The Taliban declared that the bombings violated Afghan national sovereignty while warning about future counterattacks.
During 11-12 October, the Taliban and Pakistan engaged in border clashes, following the former's launching attacks on Pakistan border facilities across the Durand Line. Pakistan responded. The clashes involved artillery battles, drone strikes and ground combat operations between the two forces. According to Pakistan media reports, Pakistan lost 23 soldiers and killed more than 200 Taliban fighters.
During 15-19 October, a brief ceasefire mediated by Qatar in Doha allowed the reopening of the Chaman border crossing for stranded civilians. The Doha peace talks on 19 October resulted in a new truce, which established civilian protection commitments from Pakistan and the Taliban. The agreement included Pakistan's commitment to halt air attacks, while the Taliban promised to avoid backing groups that fight against Pakistan. It ended on 17 October when Pakistani airstrikes in Paktika province killed ten civilians, including local cricketers, which led the Afghanistan Cricket Board to leave the planned tri-series against Pakistan.
During 25–27 October, there was a second round of talks between the two countries in Istanbul. During this period, the TTP fighters attempted to infiltrate Kurram and North Waziristan, resulting in the deaths of five Pakistani soldiers and 25 militants. The negotiations spanned 50 hours before they failed to produce any results. The Pakistani delegation accused Afghan representatives of failing to prove their efforts against TTP hideouts, while Afghan representatives stated Pakistan created hostility through its untrustworthy behaviour.
On 29 October, both sides confirmed that the Istanbul talks had failed. The border crossings at Torkham, Chaman, Ghulam Khan, Dand Patan, and Shahr Naw remained shut, blocking all trade activities and leaving numerous trucks without movement. Pakistan threatened the Taliban with deep strikes inside Afghanistan. On 30 October, according to news reports, both sides have agreed to give another chance to the talks.
On 30 October, an official statement from Turkey’s foreign ministry that was mediating the negotiations between Pakistan and Afghanistan said, that both sides have agreed to continue the ceasefire.
Issues at large
First, the deteriorating Pakistan-Afghanistan relations since 2021. Ever since the Taliban returned to power, contrary to the expectations that the relationship would improve, it has started deteriorating. There were regular militant attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces that Pakistan blamed on Afghanistan. According to recent data by the Centre for Research and Security Studies, there were 46 per cent more terrorist attacks during the third quarter in 2025, making the year the deadliest since 2015 with 2,414 deaths. According to Kabul, there were 1,200 Pakistani border violations and 700 airspace intrusions.
Second, the diverging perspectives. Pakistan holds Kabul responsible for allowing TTP to operate from its territory while referencing the 2020 Doha Agreement, which states Afghan soil must not endanger other nations. Islamabad maintains that its cross-border military operations constitute a valid form of self-defence. The Taliban denies any support for militants while accusing Pakistan of conducting unlawful and random aerial attacks. The Taliban does not recognise the 2,640 km long Durand Line between the two countries.
Third, the limitations in mediation. The diplomatic efforts by Qatar and Turkey have not been successful. The Doha agreement established a brief ceasefire that could not be sustained. The Istanbul round attempted to create verification systems but failed when both sides started blaming each other. The Taliban insisted on stopping all airstrikes, while Pakistan required proof that the TTP had been completely neutralised, which created an unresolvable disagreement.
Fourth, economic and humanitarian fallout. According to media reports, the closure of Torkham, Chaman, and other border crossings has blocked USD two billion worth of annual trade activities. According to the Federal Board of Revenue of Pakistan, the daily economic loss was between PKR 700-800 million. There has been a food price inflation and shortages of medicines and food shortages across Afghanistan.
In perspective
First, a strategic shift in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations. Pakistan’s airstrikes inside Afghanistan and the Taliban’s response mark a strategic shift in bilateral relations between the two countries. The clashes and the threats of further deep strikes by Pakistan underline the new approach in Islamabad towards Afghanistan.
Second, the Taliban’s search for independence in foreign policy and emphasis on Afghan sovereignty. Taliban wants to emerge from Pakistan’s shadows; the diplomatic engagement with India and military response to Pakistan’s air strikes in early October underlines the point.
Third, failed mediation reflects a lack of leverage. The negotiating teams did not possess the power to approve formal agreements because their governments used negotiations to deliver political statements instead of making concessions.
Thailand and Cambodia: A joint declaration, US-ASEAN intervention and its challenges
Neha Tresa George
In the news
On 26 October, the Prime Ministers of Thailand and Cambodia, Anutin Charnvirakul and Hun Manet, signed a joint declaration at the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Malaysia. Both upheld the principles of “peace, security, stability and prosperity in the regions” and agreed to carry out “military de-escalation,” shift the heavy, destructive weapons and remove the mines along the border. Thailand announced the release of 18 prisoners of war.
The deal was brokered by US President Donald Trump and Malaysia’s Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, who is also the current President of ASEAN. Referring to the declaration as a “peace treaty,” Trump said: “The United States will have robust commerce and cooperation, transactions, lots of them, with both nations, as long as they live in peace.”
On 26 October, Thailand’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the declaration did not constitute a peace deal, but rather an attempt to normalise tensions with Cambodia
On 27 October, Thai Prime Minister Anutin denied border reopening from 1 November. He explained that it would depend on Cambodia’s implementation of the terms in the joint declaration.
Issues at large
First, a historical background to the Thai-Cambodia border conflict. It can be traced to the French colonial rule. Using the French map of 1907, Cambodia claimed three areas - Preah Vihar, Ta Muen Thom and Ta Krabey, resulting in contestation with Thailand. These three areas are culturally significant for both countries. In 1962, the ICJ ruled in support of Cambodia’s claims over the Preah Vihear temple; however, Thailand continued to exert its influence over the peripheries excluded from the ruling. In February 2025, Thai soldiers refused Cambodian tourists singing their national anthem at Prasat Ta Muen Thom, resulting in fresh clashes this year. Despite high-level meetings, there were air strikes, landmine blasts and clashes resulting in casualties, border closures, and the evacuation of more than 3,00,000 civilians. While Thailand seeks to resolve the issue bilaterally through the Joint Border Committee, Cambodia internationalises it by approaching the UNSC.
Second, recurring clashes since Cambodia’s independence in 1953. Although Thailand accepted the ICJ ruling in 1962, relations deteriorated in 2008 when Preah Vihear became a UNESCO World Heritage site at Cambodia’s request. The weeklong clashes in 2011 halted with the ceasefire agreement and opening of border checkpoints. In 2013, the ICJ reconfirmed Cambodia’s sovereignty over Preah Vihar, ordering the withdrawal of Thai soldiers. Between 2014 and 2024, there were short-term clashes along the border. However, the five-day battle in July 2025 concluded with an unconditional ceasefire on 28 July with the support of the US, Malaysia, and China, paving the way for the Joint Declaration.
Third, the role of Malaysia and ASEAN. Though founded on the principles of “non-interference, sovereign equality and consensus decision making,” as the current chair of ASEAN, Malaysia has played a significant role in promoting the ceasefire and the Joint Declaration between Thailand and Cambodia. ASEAN has been at the forefront, facilitating meetings, circulating statements and supporting Malaysia’s efforts. ASEAN Observer Team (AOT), comprising ASEAN defence attachés, is monitoring the implementation of the peace process. The ASEAN Foreign Ministers also recommended the ASEAN Charter and the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation as the basis of conflict resolution between Thailand and Cambodia.
Fourth, Trump and the US influence through trade negotiations. The US President Trump has been an active influencer in the negotiations. The exports of the countries are heavily dependent on the US market. Trump used the trade factor to negotiate between them. In July, he threatened to end trade relations with both countries if a ceasefire is not reached. At the ASEAN summit, Trump entered into trade agreements with Cambodia and Malaysia. He also announced a framework for trade, along with a Memorandum of Understanding on minerals with Thailand.
In perspective
First, the ambiguity over the Joint Declaration. While the officials of Thailand have regarded the declaration as the path towards peace, Trump referred to it as the “peace agreement.” This difference in interpretations could lead to future ambiguities regarding the implementation of the terms under the declaration.
Second, the dominance of external influence over ASEAN. Due to the passivity and non-interventionist nature of ASEAN, the Thailand-Cambodia conflict saw the dominance of external powers, such as the US and China. They have been instrumental in pressurising the countries to reach a consensus on the ceasefire and the Joint Declaration. This indicates that the facilitative role of ASEAN has been insufficient to have a significant impact on the conflict.
Sudan: The RSF's siege and the Fall of el-Fasher
Anu Maria Joseph
In the news
On 27 October, Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced that they had taken control of the city of el-Fasher in Darfur. The group stated that it seized el-Fasher "from the grip of mercenaries and militias allied with the terrorist army."
On 28 October, the BBC reported that the RSF killed hundreds of civilians, with the UN confirming "summary executions" with “indications of ethnic motivations for killings." According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), around 450 civilians have been killed in the recent escalation of the civil war.
On 28 October, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan announced the withdrawal of troops from el-Fasher, citing "the systemic destruction, and the systemic killing of civilians." He added that the army hoped to "spare the citizens and the rest of the city from destruction." He said: “We are determined to avenge what happened to our people in el-Fasher. We, as the Sudanese people, will hold these criminals accountable.”
Issues at large
First, the SAF, RSF and the state of Sudan’s civil war. The civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has crossed two and a half years. According to the UN, it has killed more than 40,000 and displaced 12 million people. Since January 2025, the war has seen significant geographic escalations and shifts. In March 2025, the SAF regained complete control of Sudan’s capital Khartoum; the city had been under the RSF siege since the beginning of the war. The SAF also managed to regain control of the state of Gezira, which it had lost to the RSF in 2023. In July, with the majority of western Darfur and Kordofan states under its control, the RSF announced the establishment of a parallel government in opposition to the UN-recognised SAF government. The SAF is currently in control of Eastern and Northern Sudan, with Port Sudan as its headquarters. Since then, the battle for el-Fasher has been ongoing, which was the only region in Darfur under SAF's control. Until 2024, there were more than ten rounds of ceasefire efforts led by the US and Saudi Arabia with the support of the UN, the AU and other regional groups. However, all of them failed, amidst abundant weapon supplies from allied countries, supplemented by a lack of commitment and compliance from the warring sides.
Second, the significance of el-Fasher and its fall. Since July, the RSF has surrounded and been carrying out frequent offensives in el-Fasher. The city has strategic and geographic importance for the RSF. Geographically, El-Fasher has been the only city in Darfur that is under the SAF control, a final barrier for the RSF in controlling the western states and thereby consolidating its parallel government. The city is strategically located at an international crossroads between Chad, Egypt and Libya. This is important for the RSF, as it facilitates easier military and logistical supplies, as well as trade routes for smuggling mineral deposits from the Darfur and Kordofan regions. Additionally, the city is connected to the capital, Khartoum, and other major cities across the country.
Third, the huge human cost of the civil war. In 2024, the UN described the situation in Sudan as the worst humanitarian crisis of the century, worsened by war crimes, sexual assaults, targeted killing of civilians, added with famines, floods and diseases. Both the RSF and SAF have been accused of carrying out atrocities against civilians. The UN has verified ethnically targeted atrocities in the current escalation. It says, around 250,000 people are trapped in el-Fasher, many from non-Arab communities. According to the International Organisation of Migration (IOM), more than 26,000 people fled el-Fasher as of 28 October out of fear of the RSF atrocities.
In perspective
The fall of el Fasher is likely to redefine the military, political and humanitarian trajectory of the civil war. Militarily, it is a major setback for the SAF, which has lost its long-standing control over the city and, consequently, the Darfur region. The SAF's withdrawal from the city highlights its critical loss of strategic capacity, increasing the risks of further RSF offensives that will push the SAF to the east. Politically, with all five Darfur states under the RSF, the group has made significant progress towards consolidating a parallel government, with el-Fasher serving as the logistical and strategic centre. However, the humanitarian cost implies that the RSF also aims to dismantle civilian resistance through force, particularly targeting non-Arabs. This position also suggests that the RSF in controlled areas will likely adopt an authoritarian military governance, implying a further humanitarian crisis to be anticipated.
Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Anu Maria Joseph, Femy Francis, Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Lekshmi MK, Aparna A Nair, M Kejia, Rizwana Banu and Vaihali Chittrothu
China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
China: Nine top military generals expelled as part of the anti-corruption drive
On 18 October, the BBC reported that China’s Communist Party expelled nine top generals as part of its anti-corruption drive. China’s Ministry of National Defence informed that they were found guilty of serious financial crimes. This purge comes in light of the soon-to-be-held party’s plenum meeting, where the Central Committee in China discuss the economic policies for the year and reviews the previous year. The most prominent purge is that of Hu Weidong, the second-highest-ranking official in China’s military. He Weidong was last seen in March, and his long absence from public view fuelled speculation that he was under investigation as part of a purge of the military's top brass. China’s Ministry of National Defence said that “the nine men had ‘seriously violated party discipline and were suspected of serious duty-related crimes involving an extremely large amount of money, of extremely serious nature, and with extremely detrimental consequences.”
China: The UK warned against delaying approving the mega embassy in London
On 18 October, the BBC reported that China warned the UK of consequences if it delays the application to build a mega embassy in London. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the delay contradicted the UK's previous commitments to improving China-UK ties. Beijing's application for the embassy was initially rejected by Tower Hamlets Council in 2022 over safety and security concerns. However, it was taken over by the UK government housing department in 2024, after China resubmitted an application one month after Labour Party came to power. China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs Spokesperson Lin Jian said: “We once again call on the UK to fulfil its obligation and honour its commitments at once, otherwise the consequences arising therefrom shall be borne by the UK side.”
China: World’s first IAEA fusion research centre opened in Chengdu
On 15 October, CGTN reported that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Collaborating Centre for Fusion Energy Research and Training was opened in Chengdu, China. During the Second Ministerial Meeting of the IAEA World Fusion Energy Group and the 30th IAEA Fusion Energy Conference, China Atomic Energy Authority (CAEA), Shan Zhongde said: “China will work together with the IAEA, the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), and all nations to continuously advance global energy innovation and sustainable development, promote the harmonious coexistence of humans and nature, and contribute Chinese wisdom and Chinese solutions to building a clean, beautiful and sustainable world, allowing fusion energy to better benefit humankind.”
Thailand and Cambodia: Thailand's Defence Minister says "meaningful progress" in discussions ahead of ceasefire deal
On 23 October, Thailand's Defence Minister Natthaphon Narkphanit stated that discussions between Thailand and Cambodia have made "meaningful progress" ahead of the broader ceasefire agreement scheduled for 26 October. Malaysia's Foreign Minister added that US President Donald Trump is expected to witness the signing on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur. The discussions follow deadly border clashes in July that killed at least 48 people and displaced hundreds of thousands. Agreements reached include the withdrawal of heavy weapons from border areas, joint demining operations, coordinated cybercrime countermeasures, a border survey between Thailand's Sa Kaeo province and Cambodia's Bantheay Meanchey, and the construction of fences in non-disputed areas. Cambodia's Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Tea Seiha noted that the deal reflects "a shared spirit of building mutual trust and confidence" and will enable the release of 18 Cambodian soldiers detained during the July fighting.
South Asia
Pakistan: The ban on the TLP takes effect
On 25 October, Dawn reported on the federal government formally enforcing a ban on the Tehreek‑e‑Labbaik Pakistan (TLP), notifying the decision under Statutory Regulatory Order 2011(1) of 2025 after the Punjab government’s proposal was ratified by the federal cabinet. The party was declared a proscribed organisation under Section 11B(1)(a) of the Anti‑Terrorism Act 1997 and placed on the Act’s First Schedule. Authorities highlighted that this time no major religious or political organisation publicly backed the TLP, marking a departure from the party’s previous ban in 2021. The National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA) issued an advisory to all provinces, law-enforcement agencies, the banking sector and the Election Commission regarding restrictions applicable to the party, including the sealing of offices, limits on printed and digital promotional material, bans on press statements or conferences, financial sanctions, and curbs on political and social activities. Punjab authorities also took control of mosques linked to TLP supporters. The umbrella body Tanzeemat Ahl‑i‑Sunnat Pakistan expressed concerns over mosque takeovers and the replacement of clerics in consultation with provincial officials. Meanwhile, a senior cleric associated with the Barelvi school of thought stated that the TLP was repeatedly violating agreements and distancing itself from senior religious leadership.
Pakistan: Six terrorists killed in Balochistan
On 23 October, The News International reported that the Pakistan armed forces killed six Fitna al-Hindustan terrorists in Dalbandin, Chagai District, Balochistan. The operation was launched in a timely manner after tracking the terrorist presence in the mountains through aerial reconnaissance. They dismantled the formation and reduced threats to forces and civilians. In another operation in Bajaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan’s forces attacked hideouts and tunnels of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), alias Fitna al-Khawarij. During the operation, the forces recovered weapons, explosive material and communication devices as the terrorists fled the area with injuries. An operation at a cave in Shahi Tangi forest resulted in the death of a terrorist.
The Middle East and Africa
The War in Gaza: The US appoints Ambassador Steven Fagin as the civilian lead for the Civil-Military Coordination Centre under Trump's peace plan
On 24 October, the US State Department announced the appointment of Steven Fagin, a Career Foreign Service Officer and the US Ambassador to Yemen, as the civilian lead for the Civil-Military Coordination Centre. The department stated: "Ambassador Steven Fagin will serve as the civilian lead of the Civil-Military Coordination Centre, which is supporting the implementation of the President's 20 Point Peace Plan for Gaza." It added that he will be working to implement the peace deal and facilitate the flow of humanitarian aid. This announcement came after Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited the centre and said more US diplomats would join the 200 US military personnel already deployed. One of the central missions of Trump's peace plan is to create an international force. The troops will be drawn from Egypt, Indonesia and Gulf countries as the US will not deploy its own troops inside Gaza. This has received criticism from sceptics who say that countries may be reluctant to commit troops unless Hamas disarms and progress toward a Palestinian state becomes viable. On the creation of the international force, Itamar Rabinovich, a former Israeli ambassador to the US, said: "It is going to be indispensable to prevent the conflict continuing," and adds that "It is doable, but it is going to be very difficult."
The War in Gaza: Netanyahu expresses reservations on Turkish role, as US Vice President advances Trump peace plan
On 22 October, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu signalled strong reservations about deploying Turkish security personnel to oversee the truce, jokingly remarking to US Vice President JD Vance that his views were predictably firm during discussions on post-war arrangements. Vice President Vance, touring a US-monitored military site, voiced cautious optimism for President Trump's 20-point plan, warning that Hamas disarmament could take years and threatening swift retaliation if obstructed, while noting Turkey's potential supportive role. The 12-day-old truce faces strains from aid shortages, border disputes, and sporadic violence, with over 87 Palestinians killed since its start. In solidarity, the UK dispatched a handful of officers to a US-led stabilisation task force in Israel, leveraging expertise without assuming command, per the US appeal.
The War in Gaza: Mediators step up diplomacy; Netanyahu to meet Egyptian intelligence head; WFP says Gaza food deliveries far below target; US Vice President arrives in Israel
On 21 October, reports said that mediators are intensifying the diplomatic efforts after the Gaza truce was shaken by renewed hostilities. Israel and Hamas recommit to the ceasefire following attacks that killed 28 in Gaza and two Israeli soldiers. US Vice President JD Vance arrived in Israel to support stabilisation and advance President Trump's 20-point peace plan, which includes Hamas disarmament and a technocratic Palestinian committee. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met the head of Egyptian intelligence to discuss bilateral cooperation and reinforce the US-led peace initiative. Meanwhile, the flow of food into Gaza remained far below targets, with only 750 metric tons delivered daily against the World Food Programme's target of 2,000 tons. Limited operational crossings, including Kerem Shalom and Kissufim, restricted aid, leaving northern Gaza under severe shortages. Mediators, including Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey, continued negotiations, while civilians face ongoing uncertainty, rationing, and the threat of renewed violence.
Sudan: Drone strike disrupts Khartoum airport reopening
On 22 October, a drone attack struck near Khartoum’s international airport a day before its planned reopening for domestic flights, marking the third similar strike in a week. The airport, shut since April 2023 when the RSF seized it, had been under repair after the army retook the capital. No group has claimed responsibility, and details on casualties remain unclear. The RSF, now focused on capturing El-Fasher in Darfur, continues long-range assaults despite losing Khartoum.
Madagascar: Gen Z protesters reject coup leader’s choice of Prime Minister
On 22 October, Madagascar’s Gen Z protesters condemned the appointment of Herintsalama Rajaonarivelo as Prime Minister by coup leader Colonel Michael Randrianirina. The youth-led movement criticised the decision as opaque and unrepresentative of their demands for structural reform. Rajaonarivelo’s alleged ties to the previous regime have sparked distrust. While Randrianirina praised the youth’s role in the uprising, Gen Z Mada warned against reinstalling old governance models and vowed to hold the new administration accountable.
Nigeria: Gunmen kill eight people in Zamfara
On 18 October, according to the Governor of Zamfara, Dauda Lawal, at least eight people were killed in an ambush by gunmen, including five police officers and three paramilitary members. The attack occurred on the Gusau-Funtua road in the Tsafe area. No group has claimed responsibility. Armed groups linked to Boko Haram have increasingly targeted civilians for ransom. The incident highlights the country’s broader insecurity and its struggle with Boko Haram insurgency in the northeast.
Cameroon: Paul Biya secures eighth term amidst deadly post-election clashes
On 28 October, Cameroon’s 92-year-old President Paul Biya won a record eighth term with 53.66 per cent of the vote. His main rival, Issa Tchiroma Bakary, disputed the results and reported gunfire near his residence. Protests over alleged electoral fraud erupted, resulting in at least four deaths. The contested outcome and violence underscore ongoing tensions around Biya’s extended rule, which began in 1982.
Senegal: Thiaroye Massacre reveals France's colonial atrocity and concealed death toll
On 18 October, a new report by the government of Senegal said that the 1944 killing of African soldiers by French forces was planned and covered up. These soldiers had fought for France in World War II and were demanding fair pay. The French army shot them at Thiaroye camp near Dakar. While France claimed 35 deaths, researchers now claim up to 400. Many records were hidden or changed to hide the truth. The report asks France to apologise and calls the massacre a serious human rights violation. It also urges European courts to take action.
Ivory Coast: Alassane Ouattara secures a fourth term
On 27 October, Ivory Coast’s Jean-Louis Billon conceded defeat to President Alassane Ouattara after early results showed a strong lead for the incumbent. Ouattara, 83, is seeking a fourth term amid a fragmented opposition, with key rivals barred from contesting. The electoral commission announced partial results from 20 departments, including diaspora votes. Voter turnout was around 50 per cent, with low participation in opposition areas. Security forces were heavily deployed, and Abidjan remained calm despite isolated violence. Ouattara’s dominance mirrors the 2020 election, which was also marked by an opposition boycott. At least four people were killed in the recent protests against election fraud.
Western Sahara: Polisario Front demands referendum on autonomy plan
On 25 October, the Polisario Front said Morocco’s autonomy plan must be approved by a referendum. The vote must include independence as an option. The group submitted a proposal to the UN with three choices: independence, integration, or free association. It rejected talks without a referendum. The UN Security Council will review the issue on 31 October. Many countries now support Morocco’s plan. Western Sahara has remained disputed since Spain’s withdrawal in 1975.
Europe and the Americas
The War in Ukraine: Russia's President Putin announces successful test of "Poseidon" nuclear-powered super torpedo; heavy fighting continues near Pokrovsk; Ukraine launches drone strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure
On 29 October, Russia's President Vladimir Putin announced the successful test of the nuclear-powered Poseidon super torpedo. He stated that it is "impossible to intercept" and highlighted its unmatched destructive capability. Military analysts warned that the test could trigger radioactive ocean swells and that it reflects Moscow's push to reaffirm its military dominance amid Western pressure. Meanwhile, Ukraine is struggling to hold the eastern city of Pokrovsk. Ukraine's open-source group DeepState described the situation as "on the verge of critical and continues to deteriorate to the point that fixing everything may be too late" as Russia's forces attempt to encircle the area. At the same time, Kyiv intensified drone strikes on Russia's energy infrastructure by targeting refineries and gas plants in Mari El, Ulyanovsk, and Stavropol. Russia said its air defences destroyed 100 Ukrainian drones overnight.
The War in Ukraine: The US mulls new sanctions on Russia, urges Europe to act first; UK pushes "stronger actions" during President Zelensky's visit; Russia's envoy claims talks are "quite close to a diplomatic solution"
On 25 October, according to media reports, the US is preparing a new round of sanctions against Russia, targeting its banks and energy infrastructure to pressure Moscow into ending the war in Ukraine. Washington has urged European allies to coordinate these measures for greater impact. Meanwhile, in London, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer called for "strong measures" against Russia during Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky's visit, including using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine's defence and reconstruction. Amid these developments, Russia's envoy, Kirill Dmitriev, said that Moscow, Washington, and Kyiv were "quite close to a diplomatic solution."
The War in Ukraine: The US impose sanctions on major Russian oil companies; President Zelensky visits the UK for talks on missiles
On 24 October, the US announced sanctions on major Russian oil companies, including Rosneft and Lukoil, citing their continued role in funding Moscow's war operations. The move raised global oil prices and prompted concern among energy-dependent countries such as India. Meanwhile, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the UK and met Prime Minister Keir Starmer to discuss missile systems and defence cooperation. The visit comes as Kyiv seeks to strengthen military support ahead of winter offensives. However, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un declared that Pyongyang's military cooperation with Russia would "advance non-stop," highlighting the growing alignment between the two countries amid Western sanctions. Meanwhile, Russia claimed its forces had captured three more villages in eastern Ukraine, consolidating positions near the Donetsk front.
The War in Ukraine: President Trump urges President Putin to end the war; President Zelensky pushes a ceasefire plan
On 27 October, US President Donald Trump urged Russian President Vladimir Putin to "end the war, not test missiles," after Moscow confirmed the successful launch of its nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile. The test drew strong Western concern as it came amid intensifying fighting in eastern Ukraine and renewed airstrikes near Kyiv. Ukrainian forces have deployed reinforcements to the city of Pokrovsk, where Russian troops continue to press forward. Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that Ukraine and its allies are drafting a comprehensive ceasefire plan expected within the next ten days, signalling a diplomatic push to de-escalate the conflict. The Kremlin has not responded to President Trump's comments, but Russian officials maintain that missile testing is part of "strategic deterrence."
The War in Ukraine: European leaders back President Trump's ceasefire call; Poland warns President Putin against airspace violation; Kremlin denies Trump-Putin summit date
On 21 October, European leaders supported the US President Donald Trump's proposed ceasefire in Ukraine, while reaffirming their commitment to Kyiv's sovereignty and defensive support. The move highlights Europe's attempt to balance diplomacy with deterrence amid the ongoing conflict. Meanwhile, Poland issued a strong warning to Russia, cautioning President Vladimir Putin against any violation of Polish airspace ahead of the expected Trump-Putin summit. The Kremlin, however, stated that no official dates have been set for the meeting. Meanwhile, Russian missile strikes severely damaged power infrastructure across northern Ukraine, cutting electricity and worsening humanitarian conditions as winter nears.
US-Canada: President Trump halts trade talks with Ottawa over Reagan Ad controversy
On 24 October, US President Donald Trump abruptly ended all trade talks with Canada, citing a provocative Ontario government ad as the breaking point. The ad repurposed audio from former President Ronald Reagan criticising tariffs, which Trump called deceptive on social media. "Based on their outrageous conduct, all trade negotiations with Canada are hereby terminated," he posted on Truth Social. This followed months of tension, including US tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminium, and vehicles. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who recently lifted most counter-tariffs and met with Trump twice, vowed to protect domestic markets if deals collapse. Ontario Premier Doug Ford said the ad stung, while the Reagan Foundation condemned the edits as misleading and is considering legal action. With the USMCA up for review in 2026, economists warn of deepening rifts and job losses. Trump's claim of Canadian meddling in a looming Supreme Court tariff case further sours relations.
About the authors
Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi is an undergraduate student at CHRIST (Deemed to be University) BGR campus. Neha Tresa George is a postgraduate student at TISS, Hyderabad. Anu Maria Joseph and Femy Francis are Project Associates at NIAS. Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha are postgraduate students at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. Lekshmi MK is a postgraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. Rizwana Banu, and Aparna A Nair are undergraduate students at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. M Kejia is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Pondicherry University, Pondicherry. Swati Sood is an undergraduate student at Vivekananda College, University of Delhi. Vaihali Chittrothu is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science, St Ann's College for Women, Hyderabad.
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Preetha Renganarayanan
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Akshath Kaimal
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Ramya B
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Lekshmi MK
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IPRI Team
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Brighty Ann Sarah
IPRI Team
Global Politics Team
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Global Politics Team
Padmashree Anandhan
Aparna A Nair
Sunidhi Sampige
Lekshmi MK
Lekshmi MK
Akriti Sharma
Abhiruchi Chowdhury
Padmashree Anandhan
Padmashree Anandhan
Padmashree Anandhan
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Tanvi Thara Harendra Jha
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Brighty Ann Sarah
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Rohini Reenum
Lekshmi MK
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GP Team
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Ramya B
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Arya Madhavan S
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Nivetha B
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Siddhima M
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IPRI Team
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IPRI Team
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IPRI Team
Dhriti Mukherjee
Torunika Roy
GP Team
IPRI Team
Dhriti Mukherjee
IPRI Team
Mugdha Chaturvedi
Dhriti Mukherjee
By young scholars of NIAS Course on Global Politics: Contemporary World Order and Theories. Compiled by Sayeka Ghosh.
By the NIAS-IPRI Course scholars on Contemporary Conflicts, Peace Processes, Theories and Thinkers. Compiled by Ayan Datta.
Vaneeta
Kavithasri M
Mallika Joseph
Rohini Reenum
Padmashree Anandhan
Tiara Marie Warjri
GP Team
Femy Francis
Akhil Ajith
Dhriti Mukherjee
IPRI Team
D Suba Chandran
Padmashree Anandhan
Femy Francis
Rohini Reenum
Dhriti Mukherjee
D Suba Chandran
Rohini Reenum
Dhriti Mukherjee
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Devi Chandana M
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GP Team
Sayeka Ghosh
IPRI Team
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GP Team
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IPRI Team
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Arya Prasad
Sayeka Ghosh
Alka Bala
Diya Madhavan
IPRI Team
GP Team
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IPRI Team
Ramya B
NIAS South Asia Team
Padmashree Anandhan
Rosemary Kurian
Alka Bala
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
T C A Raghavan
IPRI Team
Karthik Manoharan
Rosemary Kurian
NIAS Africa Team
Manasa G
GP Team
IPRI Team
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NIAS South Asia Team
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NIAS Africa Team
NIAS Africa Team
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IPRI Team
NIAS South Asia Team
GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
NIAS Latin America Team
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IPRI Team
IPRI Team
Jerry Franklin A
GP Team
IPRI Team
Padmashree Anandhan, Femy Francis, Rohini Reenum, Akriti Sharma, Akhil Ajith, Shamini Velayutham and Anu Maria Joseph
Alka Bala
IPRI Team
Narmatha S and Anu Maria Jospeh
Alka Bala
Rosemary Kurian
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CEAP Team
GP Team
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IPRI Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
CEAP Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
Padmashree Anandhan
Anu Maria Joseph
GP team
Hoimi Mukherjee
Richa Chandola
Aprajita Kashyap
Shreya Pandey
Binod Khanal
Rishika Yadav
Padmashree Anandhan
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Nuha Aamina
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Sayani Rana
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Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri
Femy Francis
Amit Gupta
Kuri Sravan Kumar
Yogeshwari S
Abhishek Ranjan
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IPRI Team
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Nithyashree RB
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
Anu Maria Joseph
GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
Jerry Franklin A
IPRI Team
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PR Team
Amit Gupta
IPRI Team
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NIAS Africa Team
Akhil Ajith
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
Femy Francis
Femy Francis
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Femy Francis
NIAS Africa Team
Nithyashree RB
Jerry Franklin
GP Team
IPRI Team
PR Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
Nithyashree RB
PR Team
Padmashree Anandhan
Padmashree Anandhan
Rishika Yadav
Sreeja JS
Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri
GP Team
IPRI Team
PR Team
Prof Joyati Bhattacharya
IPRI Team
GP Team
GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
Anu Maria Joseph
Jerry Franklin A
IPRI Team
Dhriti Mukherjee
PR Team
Femy Francis
Shamini Velayutham
Sneha Surendran
PR Team
PR Team
PR Team
NIAS Africa Team
Anu Maria Joseph
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
Sneha Surendran
Heribert Dieter
IPRI Team
Nithyashree RB
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
Sneha Surendran
Rishika Yadav
Padmashree Anandhan
Jerry Franklin A
Rishika Yadav
GP Team
IPRI Team
Jerry Franklin A
Lakshmi Parimala H
GP Team
Rishika Yadav
IPRI Team
D Suba Chandran
GP Team
Indrani Talukdar
IPRI Team
S Shaji
Jerry Franklin A
Sneha Surendran
Himani Pant
D. Suba Chandran
Ankit Singh
IPRI Team
Rubina Pradhan
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Nithyashree RB
Bibhu Prasad Routray
Devjyoti Saha
NIAS Africa Team
Jerry Franklin A
Anu Maria Joseph
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
Lakshmi Parimala
GP Team
IPRI Team
Padmashree Anandhan
Sneha Surendran
GP Team
Padmashree Anandhan
IPRI Team
Rishika Yadav, Sneha Surendran, Sandra D Costa, Ryan Marcus, Prerana P and Nithyashree RB
GP Team
Harini Madhusudan, Rishika Yada, Sneha Surendran, Prerana P, Sreeja JS and Padmashree Anandhan
GP Team
IPRI Team
Bibhu Prasad Routray
NIAS Africa Team
Anu Maria Joseph
Jerry Franklin
IPRI Team
Bibhu Prasad Routray
NIAS Africa Team
Jerry Franklin
Anu Maria Joseph
GP Team
IPRI Team
Anu Maria Joseph
GP Team
Rishika Yadav, Sreeja JS, Nithyashree RB, and Melvin George
Nithyashree RB
Sreeja JS
Rishika Yadav
Padmashree Anandhan
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
Devjyoti Saha
Indrani Talukdar
Debangana Chatterjee
Kasturi Chatterjee
Ankita Dutta
Amrita Purkayastha
GP Team
Lakshmi Parimala H
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
Padmashree Anandhan
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
IPRI Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
Sourina Bej
GP Team
Padmashree Anandhan
Padmashree Anandhan
D Suba Chandran
D Suba Chandran
D Suba Chandran
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
IPRI Team
NIAS Africa Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
IPRI Team
GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
IPRI Team
Avishka Ashok
Madhura Mahesh
Padmashree Anandhan
Ankit Singh
Anu Maria Joseph
Abigail Miriam Fernandez
Sethuraman Nadarajan
Avishka Ashok
IPRI Team
GP Team
GP Team
NIAS Africa Team
GP Team
Allen Joe Mathew, Sayani Rana, Joel Jacob
Ankit Singh
Bhoomika Sesharaj
Madhura Mahesh
Harini Madhusudan
Avishka Ashok
Akriti Sharma
Padmashree Anandhan
Poulomi Mondal
Mohaimeen Khan
Padmashree Anandhan
Madhura Mahesh
Padmashree Anandhan
Janardhan G
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Padmashree Anandhan
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Padmashree Anandhan
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Naina Singh
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Amit Gupta
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Harshita Rathore
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Apoorva Sudhakar
Ankit Singh
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Sneha M
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Ankit Singh
Apoorva Sudhakar
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Jeshil J Samuel
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Anu Maria Joseph
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Savithri Sellapperumage
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Srikumar Pullat
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Aparupa Bhattacherjee
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Ryan Mitra
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Divyabharathi E
Apoorva Sudhakar
Divyabharathi E
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D. Suba Chandran
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Gayan Gowramma KC
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Miti Shah
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Manushi Kapadia
Miti Shah
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Hely Desai
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Samreen Wani
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Ann Maria Shibu
Dhruv Ashok
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Harini Madhusudan
Jamyang Dolma
Divyabharathi E
Lakshmi V Menon
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Dhruv Ashok
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