CWA # 1849
Conflict Weekly
UK's New Asylum Policy | Ukraine: New Peace Plan in Ukraine | Middle East: War in Gaza and Israel-Syria-Lebanon Tensions | Africa: War in Sudan, Kidnappings in Nigeria & a Peace Framework in DRC
Conflict Weekly #308, 20 November 2025, Vol 6, No. 46
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IPRI Team
20 November 2025
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Photo Source: Reuters
Conflict Weekly #308, 20 November 2025, Vol 6, No. 46
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI
Akshath Kaimal, Padmashree Anandhan, Brighty Ann Sarah and Anu Maria Joseph
The UK: The new asylum reform and a shift towards more restrictive policies
Akshath Kaimal
In the news
On 17 November, UK Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood announced major reforms to the country’s asylum system. Under the new plan, people granted asylum will only be allowed to stay in the country temporarily, with their status reviewed every 30 months. Additionally, the UK government will stop providing housing support and weekly pay to refugees. Mahmood added that the government plans to change the application of Article 8, the right to family, of the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), and Article 3, which bans inhuman and degrading treatment. It also plans to introduce new “safe and legal” routes to the UK, with an annual cap on numbers, a consolidated appeals process and visa penalties on Angola, Namibia and the Democratic Republic of Congo for refusing to take back their citizens.
From 18-21 November, several civil society and human rights organisations reacted to asylum reforms. Just Fair said that the reforms “take us down the wrong path.” Just Right Scotland stressed that the changes “embed precarity, restrict access to justice, and risk normalising destitution for people seeking safety.” Human Rights Watch (HRW) emphasised that the policy “marks a profound retreat from the humane, pragmatic approach Labour promised voters.”
Issues at large
First, a brief background to the UK’s asylum policy. Although the UK is a signatory to the 1951 Refugee Convention, the Immigration and Asylum Act 1999 defines an “asylum seeker” differently from a “refugee,” which restricts the benefits usually provided to asylum seekers. A controversial voucher system was introduced to replace cash payments, and accommodation was provided on a no-choice basis. The “hostile environment” created by the Immigration Act 2014 allowed the sectors, such as healthcare and housing, to carry out immigration checks to ensure a person’s eligibility. Brexit, modelled on the “refugee crisis,” made it harder for asylum seekers to continue staying in the UK. The Conservative government’s subsequent deal with Rwanda and the Labour government’s recent reforms met with criticism from human rights organisations.
Second, the problem of seeking asylum in the UK in 2025. Currently, refugees can stay in the UK for up to five years, after which they can apply for settlement, called Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) and eventually, citizenship. Mahmood wants to raise this to 20 years to deter more asylum claims. According to the Home Office, the UK has so far provided asylum for a record 110,800 people this year. Refugee arrivals on small boats are 8500 higher than the same time last year. Latest data from the Home Office shows that asylum seekers mainly come from Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Bangladesh, Sudan, Eritrea and Syria, often fleeing violence, conflict and political persecution in their home countries.
Third, rising anti-immigration sentiments in the UK. Anti-immigrant sentiments began rising following the 2015 European migrant crisis. On the grassroots level, protests against immigration in London this September saw upwards of 100,000 people occupying the streets. The protests have been primarily spearheaded by right-wing activists. Politically, these popular anti-immigrant sentiments have pushed for more and more restrictive asylum and immigration policies. The previous Conservative government introduced the Rwandan Asylum Plan in 2022 to deport illegal migrants to Rwanda. Although the plan was cancelled by the current Labour government, the new reforms indicate that restrictive asylum policies are being adopted across the political spectrum.
In perspective
First, the potential impacts of the reforms on asylum seekers. With several European countries shifting towards more restrictive asylum policies, the new reforms could spell more trouble for asylum seekers. The Netherlands, Greece, Austria, Germany and Italy have all tightened their asylum policies over the last few years, creating fewer avenues for people fleeing political and economic instability. Mahmood’s reforms would make the UK’s asylum system among the strictest in Europe. Stricter asylum and immigration policies in European countries have generally resulted in more people crossing over illegally, primarily using small boats, which is dangerous. Despite the overhaul of the asylum system, the new reforms are unlikely to reduce these numbers.
Second, a possible shift to the right. The reforms also signal a possible shift to the political right in the UK, fueled by rising inflation and immigration. The Labour government’s latest asylum policy doesn’t help things. The new policy is a gamble, and the government needs the support of its party MPs to push it through. With at least 20 Labour MPs objecting to the new rules, Keir Starmer’s government faces divisions within its own party, and that could push Labour supporters to the right.
CW Column: The War in Ukraine This Week
Trump’s 28-point Peace Plan, Russia’s Aerial Offensive and the Fighting in Pokrovsk
Padmashree Anandhan
What happened this week?
1. Trump’s 28-point peace plan
On 20 November, US President Donald Trump’s 28-point peace plan draft was discussed among Ukraine, Russia and Europe officials. The plan requires Ukraine to cede its Donbas territory, including the area controlled by Ukraine. It demands that Ukraine restrict its military to 600,000 troops and forgo its NATO membership efforts in exchange for US security guarantees and economic reconstruction aid. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated it's a US vision rather than a final deal. The plan also includes Russia’s reintegration into global institutions and outlines recognition of Russian Russian-controlled Crimean region and establishment of a demilitarised buffer zone. It calls for an election and proposes a long-term US-Russia cooperation with implementation monitored by the Trump-led Peace Council.
2. War on the ground in Ukraine
On 20 November, a Ukrainian military official reported Russian drone (470) and missile (48) strikes across western Ukraine, resulting in 26 fatalities and nearly 100 injuries. On 14 November, Ukraine's military commander, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, emphasised that despite the increased attacks from Russia's Rubicon drone unit, the city was not encircled. Zelenskyy also expressed he would back commanders if a withdrawal became necessary to save soldiers' lives and visited forces near Orikhiv, describing the circumstances there as “one of the most challenging.” On 19 November, a missile strike in Kharkiv injured at least 32, marking the third attack on the region within three days, as Russian efforts to damage Ukraine’s energy infrastructure intensified.
3. Responses from Europe
European leaders sharply criticised Trump’s new cease-fire proposal, arguing it heavily favours Russia and would reward aggression while undermining Europe’s security. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas criticised, any viable peace deal must be backed by both Kyiv and Europe. European diplomats caution that conceding to the Kremlin would embolden Russia to threaten not just Ukraine but also EU and NATO states. Germany’s Friedrich Merz vowed to push for a coordinated European response that keeps Ukraine’s interests central.
What are the issues?
1. Trump’s new peace plan for Ukraine
Since his presidency began, his relationship with Zelenskyy has been quite intense, aside from the most recent interactions. Trump has gone from blaming Ukraine for dragging the war out to some notable confrontations in the Oval Office. He’s been pretty hesitant about providing military and political support to Ukraine. However, following the minerals deal and the gradual coming together of EU leaders, he softened his stance. He transitioned from cutting off military aid to promising security guarantees and delivering Patriot missiles. In August, Trump and Putin’s first meeting since the war did not succeed in ending the Russian aggression against Ukraine, but the current peace plan seems to have sided in favour of Russia.
2. Russia’s domination of the skies
Russia’s growing dominance of the skies stems from its ability to combine mass drone swarms, long-range “Shahed”-type UAVs, upgraded glide bombs and coordinated missile–drone saturation strikes that routinely exhaust Ukraine’s depleted air-defence systems. Simultaneously, Russia’s surveillance drones are used tactically to disrupt rear-area supply routes and destroy Ukrainian armour before it reaches the front, creating a form of persistent aerial interdiction that Ukraine cannot match. This approach of high-volume aerial attacks gives Russia a decisive advantage, supports its ground advances, and steadily degrades Ukraine’s ability to manoeuvre.
3. Fighting over Pokrovsk city
Pokrovsk has emerged as one of the most volatile fronts in eastern Ukraine, where Russia is applying multi-axis pressure. This includes eroding Ukrainian defences and gaining tactical footholds across several districts. Several analysts from the West report Russian troops to be appearing “in every district.” Whereas, the Ukrainian commander confirmed the direct presence but stressed that it was not encircled and that the front remains dynamic for vital supplies and evacuation. For Russia, Pokrovsk is a strategic location as it serves as the “gateway to Donetsk.” This means, capturing the city could help deeper Russian advances and challenge Ukraine to resist and adapt its counter-offensive.
CW Column: Conflicts in the Middle East This Week
Escalating ceasefire violations and settler violence in Gaza, Israel-Syria tensions, and Israel’s pressure on Hezbollah
Brighty Ann Sarah
What happened this week?
1. Gaza: Persistent ceasefire violations and settler violence in occupied regions
On 17 November, a group of Israelis set fire to homes and vehicles in Jab'a, a Palestinian village near Bethlehem after an earlier attack on the village of Sa’ir. Prime Minister Netanyahu convened an urgent cabinet meeting to discuss the settler violence.
On 18 November, following the UNSC approval of the US draft resolution for Gaza, PM Netanyahu called for the expulsion of Hamas from the region and the "full demilitarization, disarmament, and deradicalization of Gaza."
On 19 and 20 November, Israel launched severe airstrikes on alleged Hamas outfits in the suburbs of Khan Younis, killing 25 people. The strikes were launched in regions far beyond the agreed-upon imaginary "yellow line" separating the areas under Israeli and Palestinian control.
2. Syria: Spat over Netanyahu’s visit to military troops in Syria’s demilitarised buffer zones
On 19 November, Syria denounced PM Benjamin Netanyahu’s and other senior officials' visit to the country’s south, where they visited troops deployed to Syrian territory that Israel has occupied for months. Ibrahim Olabi, Syria’s ambassador to the United Nations, told the UN Security Council that “My government strongly condemns this provocative tour, which epitomises Israel’s ongoing aggression against Syria and its people.”
3. Lebanon: Israel launches major airstrike in south Lebanon
On 20 November, according to media reports, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) carried out the airstrikes on Lebanon, in a campaign to prevent the military revival of Hezbollah in the border area. The Israeli military said it struck "weapons storage facilities belonging to Hezbollah's rocket unit", and that these were "located in the heart of the civilian population," adding that it had taken steps to mitigate harm to civilians.
What are the issues?
1. Ceasefire violations & Hamas’ reluctance to disarm in Gaza
Since the starting of the US-brokered ceasefire on 10 October, violations from both Hamas and Israel have been persistent and escalating. The rising scale of the attacks threatens the viability of pursuing the next phase of the peace plan and the implementation of the UNSC approved US resolution. Cases of civil unrest among the Israeli communities dissatisfied with the peace process are also increasing. The event was the last in the series of violent attacks from Israeli settlers on Palestinians in the occupied West Bank, and drew criticism from Prime Minister Netanyahu, who vowed to bring the perpetrators to justice.
Besides, there have been tensions over other aspects of the ceasefire and the latest UNSC resolution. Despite advancing the levels of the peace process, key areas, including the operations of Hamas, and the larger Palestinian statehood, remain points of severe contestation. Hamas has rejected any suggestion of disarmament and has deepened its presence in the region following the ceasefire. Israel’s demands for the expulsion of Hamas directly contradict Trump’s 20-point peace plan, which offers amnesty to Hamas members “who commit to peaceful co-existence and to decommission their weapons.” Failing to achieve a consensus on such critical aspects endangers the possibility of a lasting peace.
2. Tensions between Israel and Syria
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) troops stationed in the demilitarized buffer zone of southern Syria was interpreted as a violation of Syria’s sovereignty and an episode of Israel’s expansion into the territory since the fall of the Assad regime. Israel has occupied the Syrian Golan Heights since the 1967 Arab–Israeli War. Following Assad’s fall, it argued that the 1974 UN-brokered disengagement agreement with Syria was no longer in effect, subsequently extending its control over additional Syrian territory.
Netanyahu’s visit further strains the possibility of a peace settlement between Tel Aviv and Beirut. While Syria demands the complete return of the Golan Heights to the 1967 lines with no permanent Israeli military presence, Israel refuses to withdraw its forces without a “comprehensive peace agreement.” Reports suggest that the agreement includes the creation of a demilitarized zone spanning the southwest of Damascus up to the border with Israel, encompassing key Syrian territories.
3. Ceasefire violations and mounting pressure on Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah
Israel’s breaches of the November 2024 ceasefire risk complicating the Lebanese government’s efforts to pursue disarmament, as such actions may provoke Hezbollah into retaliatory strikes and undermine the prospects for peace. Lebanon is also facing rising external pressure to dismantle the group. Hezbollah continues to insist that it will not begin decommissioning until Israeli forces fully withdraw from the south. Continued violations may lead the group to doubt the state’s capacity, prompting unilateral actions and potentially driving the escalating tensions into widespread violence between Hezbollah and Israel.
What does it mean?
In Gaza, the escalating hostilities undermine the scope of implementing or advancing the peace process. The increase in settler violence hints at growing civil unrest in Israel over the peace plan. Further, the lack of consensus on key aspects, including the debate on the expulsion or amnesty of Hamas members, the role of the Palestinian Authority, and the broader Palestinian statehood, undermines the possibility of a lasting peace.
In Syria, with the high-level visit to the demilitarized zone, Israel is underscoring its de facto control over the territories and the Golan Heights. Israel’s move comes after President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s meeting with President Trump, reflecting an attempt to leverage Syria’s growing closeness to Washington and to increase pressure for a comprehensive settlement.
In Lebanon, Israel’s persistent attacks to coerce compliance can potentially derail the disarmament efforts pursued by the government. The cycle of violence would likely continue as Israel refuses to withdraw forces without Hezbollah’s disarmament, while the group also remains steadfast in its demands for Israeli withdrawal before disarmament.
CW Column: Conflicts in Africa This Week
International call to end weapon supply to Sudan, Kidnapping in Nigeria and a framework for peace in DRC
Anu Maria Joseph
What happened this week?
1. Sudan
On 14 November, the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, called for international action to block weapon supply to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan.
On the same day, the UN Human Rights Council adopted a resolution calling the Independent International Fact-Finding Mission for Sudan to investigate the human rights atrocities in el-Fasher, North Darfur. The investigation was called to "identify where possible" suspected perpetrators and hold them "accountable."
2. Nigeria
On 17 November, the BBC reported that armed men killed a teacher and abducted 25 students from a girls' school in Kebbi, north-western Nigeria.
3. Democratic Republic of Congo
On 15 November, the M23 rebels and the government of DRC signed a framework for peace in eastern Congo, mediated by Qatar. The US Africa envoy, Massad Boulos, said that the framework covers eight protocols related to humanitarian access, return of displaced people, protection of the judiciary and prisoner exchange, among others.
What are the issues?
1. The RSF capture of el Fasher in Sudan
In October, el-Fasher, the only city in the Darfur region under the control of the SAF, was captured by the RSF. Ever since, RSF has been carrying out mass killings and human rights atrocities across the city, especially targeting the non-Arabs and other civilian resistance groups. According to the WHO, more than 450 civilians were killed in the fighting. The International Organisation of Migration says 26,000 people have fled el-Fasher.
By capturing el-Fasher from the SAF, the RSF crossed the final barrier in controlling the western states in Sudan and consolidating its parallel government. Strategically, el-Fasher is important for its connectivity and mineral routes and networks to neighbouring countries. Meanwhile, it adopted a violent approach towards non-Arabs and civilian resistance to keep the masses in control.
Finally, the allegations of external support to the RSF. The UAE is accused by the UN, the US and other international actors of supporting the RSF with weapons. Amnesty International claimed that weapons used in the civil war have been manufactured in Serbia, Russia, China, Turkey, Yemen and the UAE. According to the UN, they are smuggled via the UAE through Chad and then to Darfur. Meanwhile, the UAE has denied the allegations.
2. The record kidnapping in Nigeria
Nigeria's record kidnappings: Perpetrators, targets, demands and responses. Ransom kidnappings are common in the Northeast and Northwest states of Zamfara, Kaduna, Borno, Niger and Kebbi. With less state control, the majority of the areas in these states are controlled by bandits, insurgents and separatist groups. Ever since the Boko Haram kidnapping incident in Chibok, Borno state, in 2014, the country has seen multiple kidnapping incidents. According to a report by Save the Children, over 1,680 students were kidnapped from Nigerian schools between 2014 and 2022. The latest incident was the March 2024, when 200 IDPs were kidnapped from Borno state.
Imitating Boko Haram, local armed men, widely known as 'Bandits' have been carrying out mass abductions on motorcycles. Unlike the Boko Haram and ISAWP, Bandits kidnap people for ransom and are not driven by any ideologies. The targets are predominantly schools, IDP camps, girls, women and children. Paying ransoms was criminalised in 2022 by the Nigerian government, but rarely effective. The government policies and the military have been inefficient in addressing the issue.
3. The persisting challenges to the peace efforts in the DRC
The peace efforts in DRC are challenging mainly because of four reasons. First, the conflict is deeply rooted in the historical displacement of ethnic groups, the Rwandan genocide, the Congo Wars and the subsequent rise of hundreds of armed groups. No peace initiatives are likely to bring a sustainable peace in eastern Congo until those issues are addressed. Second, despite signing a comprehensive peace deal in July, mediated by the US, neither the Rwandan forces have withdrawn from the region, nor has the DRC stopped supporting FDLR. Third, Goma and Bukavu continue to be under M23 rebels' control, and there are multiple instances of ceasefire violations, implying that the provisions of the Doha ceasefire between M23 and DRC are still on hold.
What does it mean?
In Sudan, the abundant weapon supply has prolonged the war. International responses, calls and arms embargo have not made any meaningful impact. In addition, the late and little international response to the continuing violence and the atrocities el-Fasher implies that the violence and the humanitarian impact are likely to worsen.
In Nigeria, the motivations behind the kidnapping and targeting of schools and girls remain largely unclear. Trump recently announced a military threat against the country over targeted attacks on Christians. Given the internal ignorance of the issue, bandits/insurgents/separatists are likely to take advantage of the recent international attention to Nigeria’s security issues, implying that similar ransom kidnapping incidents are likely to occur during the immediate weeks.
In DRC, a stalled comprehensive peace agreement between the DRC and Rwanda, and a volatile ceasefire between the M23 and the DRC, add to the persisting challenges, indicating that the ongoing peace efforts are highly likely to collapse in the coming months.
Issues in Peace and Conflict This Week:
Regional Roundups
Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Lekshmi MK, Aparna A Nair, M Kejia, and Rizwana Banu
China, East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific
Taiwan: US approves the sale of fighter jets and aircraft parts worth USD 330 million
On 13 November, the US approved a USD 330 million worth sale of fighter jets and aircraft parts to Taiwan, the first such transaction under President Trump. According to the Pentagon: "The proposed sale will improve the recipient's capability to meet current and future threats by maintaining the operational readiness of the recipient's fleet of F-16, C-130," and other aircraft. The US has a formal diplomatic relationship with China; however, it maintains unofficial ties with Taiwan and is legally required to support Taiwan's self-defence. Taiwan's presidential office welcomed the decision, stating: "The deepening of the Taiwan-U.S. security partnership is an important cornerstone of peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region." Taiwan's defence ministry said the sale would "take effect" within a month and improve its air defence and response to China's "gray-zone" incursions. China expressed its reservations over the move, with its foreign ministry spokesperson stating: "The Taiwan question is the core of China's core interests and the first red line that must not be crossed in China-U.S. relations."
China-Japan: "Retract the wrongful remarks and seriously act to honour Japan's commitment to China," Chinese Foreign Ministry responds to Japanese PM
On 17 November, the Japan Times reported that a senior Japanese official is off to Beijing to explain recent remarks by Japan's PM, which caused a diplomatic row between the countries. According to the latest reports, the Beijing travel and study advisory has resulted in a substantial slump in Japan's tourism. Additionally, the China Coast Guard Ship formation was reportedly cited near Japan-administered Senakaku Island. Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary said: "The announcements are incompatible with a 'mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests' and the establishment of a stable and constructive relationship between the two countries," and requested "appropriate actions" from the Chinese side. On the same day, China's Foreign Ministry stated that China's Premier Li Qiang will not hold talks with Japan's Prime Minister on the sidelines of the upcoming G20 summit in South Africa. China's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said: "...stop crossing the line and playing with fire, retract the wrongful remarks and seriously act to honour Japan's commitment to China."
On 14 November, Chinese Consul General in Osaka, Xue Jian, commented, "the dirty necks that sticks itself in must be cut off" in a post on X that has now been deleted, leading to Japanese officials calling for his expulsion. Chinese Defence Ministry spokesperson Jiang Bin said: "Should the Japanese side fail to draw lessons from history and dare to take a risk, or even use force to interfere in the Taiwan question, it will only suffer a crushing defeat against the steel-willed People's Liberation Army and pay a heavy price," in retaliation to the remarks. The Chinese Foreign Ministry raised serious concerns about recent Japanese military and security moves, as well as the uncertainty regarding their nuclear principles.
North Korea: Pyongyang says US-South Korea nuclear submarine deal will trigger "nuclear domino" effect
On 18 November, North Korea said that South Korea's plan to acquire nuclear-powered attack submarines with US approval would trigger a "nuclear domino phenomenon" and spark a regional arms race. In a statement cited by state-run KCNA, Pyongyang condemned the agreement reached last month between US President Donald Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung. This reaffirmed commitment to North Korea's complete denuclearisation while approving Seoul's long-sought nuclear submarine programme. North Korea accused the US and South Korea of exposing their "confrontational will" and claimed Seoul harbours a secret ambition to possess nuclear weapons. South Korea's presidential office rejected the accusation and stated that the submarines are needed to counter threats from China and North Korea's own nuclear-submarine development. It also reiterated that Seoul harbours no hostile intent toward Pyongyang.
South Asia
Pakistan: IMF report reveals systemic weakness and corruption challenges across state institutions
On 20 November, the Governance and Corruption Diagnostic Assessment (GCDA) report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revealed persistent corruption across state institutions in Pakistan. The IMF has also demanded the immediate implementation of a 15-point reform agenda to improve transparency, fairness and integrity. The publication of the report was a precondition to the IMF’s approval of a USD 1.2 billion disbursement for Pakistan. The report stated that “Pakistan could generate between a 5 per cent to 6.5 per cent increase in GDP by implementing a package of governance reforms over the course of five years.” The GCDA noted that the country was susceptible to corruption risk generated by weaknesses in budgeting and reporting of fiscal information, and management of public financial and non-financial resources, particularly in capital spending, public procurement and the management and oversight of state-owned enterprises (SOEs). It further pointed to a convoluted tax system that lacks transparency, administered by tax and customs bodies that suffer from limited capacity, weak management and inadequate oversight. It also highlighted that issues in the judicial sector, marked by organisational complexity, chronic inefficiencies, outdated legislation, and concerns about the integrity of judges and staff, undermine consistent contract enforcement and the protection of property rights. The report urged the advancement of rule-based governance by “improving access to information and strengthening the capacity of state and non-state stakeholders to participate effectively in governance and economic decision-making.”
The Middle East and Africa
The War in Gaza: The UNSC approves the US draft resolution to implement Trump's 20-point plan
On 18 November, the UN Security Council voted in favour of a US-drafted resolution endorsing President Trump's 20-point plan for Gaza, and the creation of a transitional governance body called the Board of Peace (BoP). The resolution was backed by 13 countries, including eight Arab-Islamic countries and the Palestinian Authority, who urged the immediate implementation of the resolution. While no state opposed the resolution, Russia and China abstained from the voting. Hamas has also rejected the resolution, arguing that it fails to meet Palestinians' rights and demands. Mike Waltz, the US's ambassador to the UN, highlighted that the ISF would be "tasked with securing the area, supporting the demilitarisation of Gazadismantling the terrorist infrastructure, removing weapons, and ensuring the safety of Palestinian civilians."
The War in Gaza: PM Netanyahu to convene urgent cabinet meeting to address Israeli violence in Palestinian villages
On 18 November, Netanyahu stated that a cabinet meeting would be urgently convened to ensure Israelis behind the latest attacks against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank are brought to justice. On 17 November, a group of Israelis set fire to homes and vehicles in Jab'a, a Palestinian village near Bethlehem, after an earlier attack on the village of Sa'ir. "I view with great severity the violent disturbances and the attempt to take the law into their own hands by a small, extremist group," Netanyahu stated. "I call on the law enforcement authorities to deal with the rioters to the fullest extent of the law," he said, adding that he intends to deal with this personally. Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that the government is set to approve a landmark decision to allocate resources and funding that he expects would have a significant impact on addressing the violence. An Israeli spokesperson stated that the Israeli minority responsible for the violence in the West Bank did not represent the majority of the country's citizens. In November, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs revealed that settlers staged at least 264 attacks on Palestinians in October, the highest monthly tally since the UN began tracking incidents in 2006.
The War in Gaza: Israeli airstrikes in Khan Younis kill five; Hamas urges Arab-US intervention
On 20 November, five people were killed and 18 wounded in Israeli airstrikes in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip. The strikes follow a previous attack in the same region where 25 people were killed in the suburbs of Zeitoun, Khan Younis, and Shejaia, areas under the control of Hamas. The strikes were launched in regions far beyond the agreed-upon imaginary "yellow line" separating the areas under Israeli and Palestinian control. The Israeli Defence Forces claimed that the strikes targeted Hamas outfits. Hamas condemned the attack and urged the US to "honor its stated commitments and exert immediate pressure on Israel to enforce the ceasefire and halt its attacks." Hamas called the attacks a dangerous escalation and urged the intervention of the Arab mediators, Turkey, and the United States, which brokered the ceasefire. Hamas spokesperson Hazem Qassem also accused Israel of changing markings that define areas of Israeli occupation, a violation of the agreed-upon maps. Citing the residents of the region, Reuters reported that in the Shejaia suburb in eastern Gaza City, yellow barricades marking areas still under Israel's control had been moved 100 meters westward.
Israel and Lebanon: Tel-Aviv steps up attacks on alleged Hezbollah outfits in South Lebanon
On 20 November, according to media reports, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) carried out the airstrikes on Lebanon, in a campaign to prevent the military revival of Hezbollah in the border area. The Israeli military said it struck "weapons storage facilities belonging to Hezbollah's rocket unit", and that these were "located in the heart of the civilian population," adding that it had taken steps to mitigate harm to civilians. On 19 November, Israel issued warnings on social media revealing identities that were claimed as Hezbollah military infrastructure in South Lebanon. Israel also accused Hezbollah of attempting to rebuild capabilities in the area of another village, Beit Lif, saying it had identified Hezbollah headquarters and weapons storage facilities there. Hezbollah had denied the accusations, calling them "false claims to justify continued attacks."
Iran: IAEA says Tehran must provide precise information and all access required "without delay"
On 20 November, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) passed a pivotal resolution to urge Iran to provide critical details on its enriched uranium stockpile and access to nuclear sites bombed by Israel and the United States in June "without delay". The vote tallied 19 in favour, 3 (Russia, China, and Niger) against, and 12 abstentions. Five months after the airstrikes, the IAEA remains barred from inspecting key enrichment facilities, with 440.9 kg of uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity unaccounted for. This comes to a level teetering near weapons-grade and is sufficient in theory for up to 10 bombs. The US, UK, France, and Germany condemned the opacity as "long overdue" for verification and said in a statement that "Iran must resolve its safeguards issues without delay. It must provide practical cooperation through access, answers, restoration of monitoring, to enable the agency to do its job and help rebuild confidence." Tehran insisted that the program is peaceful, and Iran's ambassador to the IAEA, Reza Najafi, said that he is afraid that "the resolution will have its own consequences."
Lebanon: Israeli wall crosses the blue line into Lebanon border, finds a UN survey
On 14 November, a UN spokesperson said a survey by the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) found that a wall built by the Israeli military crosses the Blue Line, the UN-demarcated line between Lebanon, Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. The spokesperson stated the concrete T-wall has led to more than 4,000 square metres of Lebanese territory being inaccessible. UNIFIL said such “Israeli presence and construction in Lebanese territory are violations of Security Council resolution 1701.” UNIFIL has reportedly informed the Israeli military of the survey finding and has advised to remove the wall. However, an Israeli military spokesperson denied the findings and stated, "the wall is part of a broader IDF plan whose construction began in 2022. Since the start of the war, and as part of lessons learned from it, the IDF has been advancing a series of measures, including reinforcing the physical barrier along the northern border.”
Africa: Proposed reduction in contribution to the Global Fund would “have real consequences across Africa,” warns experts
On 15 November, The Guardian warned that the 15 per cent reduction in the UK’s contribution to the Global Fund for AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria has raised concerns other countries might be prompted to scale back their commitments as well. The rollback from the previous commitment of GBP one billion to GBP 850 million was announced on 11 November, despite the UK co-hosting this year’s replenishment drive with South Africa. Campaigners urged Prime Minister Keir Starmer to demonstrate leadership by attending the replenishment summit in Johannesburg later this month, and to secure additional resources. The reduced pledge reflects the government’s broader decision to cut aid spending from 0.5 per cent of GDP to 0.3 per cent in order to increase defence funding. Research published in October indicated that a 20 per cent reduction in the Global Fund’s overall resources could lead to 330,000 additional malaria deaths by 2040. The Fund currently accounts for 59 per cent of all international financing for malaria. The British development minister Jenny Chapman said this year’s funding was “in dollar terms […] only 5 per cent less than the amount” pledged for 2023-25 and would “save up to 1.3 million lives, avert up to 22m new cases or infections of HIV, TB and malaria, and generate up to GBP 13bn in health gains and economic returns in the countries where the Global Fund works.” Joy Phumaphi, executive secretary of the African Leaders Malaria Alliance, welcomed the UK’s continued support but warned that the reduced contribution would “have real consequences across Africa, with fewer bed nets, medicines, and diagnostic tools reaching those most in need.” She also stated that “We expected a stronger show of leadership, reflecting a proud UK legacy of support to the global goal of ending Aids.”
Democratic Republic of Congo: The government and M23 sign peace framework in Doha; Violence continues in Eastern Congo
On 15 November, the Democratic Republic of Congo and the M23 rebel group signed a framework agreement to end fighting in eastern Congo in Doha, Qatar. The document includes eight protocols, but negotiators say most still require detailed implementation plans. US Senior Adviser for Africa Massad Boulos admitted progress has been slow, especially on prisoner exchanges and ceasefire monitoring. He stated that “This is a process… This is not a light switch that you just switch on and off." The conflict continues despite diplomacy. Local officials said at least 28 people were killed on 14 November in North Kivu by militants allied with the Islamic State. M23 has seized major territory in eastern Congo and is widely reported to receive support from Rwanda. But Rwanda has long denied the allegations. Qatar’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulaziz Al-Khulaifi said the agreement puts the parties on a path toward peace. He said that “Peace cannot be enforced by force, but is built through confidence, mutual respect and sincere commitment.”
The War in Sudan: UN launches fact-finding mission as RSF advances eastward in escalating civil war
On 14 November, the United Nations Human Rights Council adopted a resolution establishing an independent fact-finding mission to investigate the reported mass killings, ethnic violence and rape in al-Fashir. The resolution directs investigators to identify perpetrators and preserve evidence for future accountability. Sudan's representative criticised the text for avoiding scrutiny of alleged foreign support to the RSF by accusing the UAE of supplying weapons. These claims were denied. The EU, UK, Norway, and Ghana backed the resolution and warned that continued violence risks destabilising the wider region. The UN session came amid new RSF offenses on the eastward side after consolidating control over Darfur. Despite accepting a US-backed ceasefire proposal, RSF forces seized Bara in North Kordofan and launched drone attacks across the region, which has triggered heavy displacement. The Sudanese army, which has not agreed to the ceasefire, is massing troops around El Obeid and Port Sudan as fighting intensifies. Humanitarian agencies warn that parts of Kordofan are already in famine, and renewed hostilities risk further worsening Sudan's two-and-a-half-year civil war.
Europe and the Americas
The War in Ukraine: Europe criticises the reported US peace plan as unfair to Ukraine
On 20 November, European leaders criticised the US peace plan that would require Ukraine to make significant territorial concessions to Russia and accept limits on its future military strength. According to media reports, the proposal aims to create conditions for a ceasefire, which has been criticised in Europe as unfairly pressuring Kyiv. France's Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot stated that "peace cannot be capitulation," while several EU officials insisted that no plan should force Ukraine to abandon its sovereignty or territorial integrity. The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended Washington's push for negotiations, saying difficult choices may be "necessary" to end the war. However, he declined to confirm details of the alleged proposal. The discussions come as the front continues to intensify and winter approaches.Meanwhile, Ukraine announced that it has received 1,000 bodies from Russia, believed to be the remains of Ukrainian soldiers. Kyiv said forensic experts will begin identification procedures and return the bodies to families. The transfer marks one of the largest exchanges of remains since the full-scale war began.
The War in Ukraine: President Zelensky plans to visit Turkey to revive peace talks; Kyiv's strike damages power plants in Donetsk
On 18 November, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky announced that he intends to visit Turkey as part of a renewed diplomatic push to revive stalled peace talks with Russia. According to President Zelensky, discussions in Ankara will focus on establishing a framework for negotiations, strengthening regional security cooperation, and increasing Turkish involvement in humanitarian and reconstruction initiatives. Turkey has previously played a mediating role in the Black Sea grain deal and has maintained channels with both Kyiv and Moscow, positioning itself as one of the few actors capable of facilitating dialogue. Meanwhile, officials in Russian-controlled parts of Donetsk reported that a Ukrainian strike damaged two power plants, leading to outages across several districts. Local authorities said repair teams had been deployed but warned that restoration could take time due to the scale of the damage. Kyiv has not officially commented on the strike.
The War in Ukraine: President Zelensky visits France as part of his Europe tour to boost defence support; Russia continues strikes across the cities
On 17 November, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky visited France as part of his Europe tour, where he met President Emmanuel Macron in Paris. During the meeting, both leaders discussed urgent military assistance for Ukraine, including the need for additional air-defence systems for the winter. President Zelensky also signed a letter of intent for the future purchase of up to 100 French-made Rafale fighter jets and associated air-defence equipment. The two sides reviewed ongoing European military and financial commitments, with France earlier pledging EUR 2 billion in defence support. Zelensky was also scheduled to meet EU and NATO officials to request accelerated ammunition supplies, air-defence batteries, and budgetary support. His visit came as Kyiv continued to push European capitals for faster delivery of aid packages and long-term security guarantees.
Meanwhile, Russian forces continued attacks across Ukraine, with strikes reported in Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Zaporizhzhia. In Kharkiv, at least three people were killed after Russian shelling hit residential areas. Local authorities stated that emergency crews were deployed to control fires and rescue civilians trapped in damaged buildings. In Kyiv, Ukrainian air-defence units intercepted multiple drones targeting the capital, while debris caused minor damage in several districts. In Zaporizhzhia, Russian missile attacks damaged infrastructure, prompting temporary power outages. Ukrainian military officials reported intensified Russian activity along frontline positions and warned of additional strikes in the coming days.
The War in Ukraine: Kyiv faces massive Russian missile and drone attack; President Zelensky calls it a “deliberate and calculated move”
On 15 November, media reported that Kyiv was struck by a heavy Russian aerial assault using at least 430 drones and 18 missiles, targeting residential buildings, infrastructure, and energy facilities. The attack killed six civilians and injured 35 others, according to Kyiv’s military administration. Buildings in more than eight districts of the city were damaged, and fires broke out across residential areas. President Volodymyr Zelensky described the strike as “deliberate” and “calculated” to inflict maximum damage on civilians. Authorities reported some power outages and called for increased international assistance to bolster air defence before the onset of winter.
Climate Change
COP 30 Climate Summit: Ministers face a deadlock over the construction of a fossil fuel roadmap as disputes on finance intensify
On 17 November, ministers heading the national delegations entered the second week of the UN COP 30 climate summit, tasked with converting informal consultations into a workable set of decisions. Delegates are attempting to shape a roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels and address the low ambition in new climate plans. They also aim to resolve disagreements on climate finance, emissions reporting and unilateral trade measures. Brazil's presidency released a latest note that shows persistent divisions. Developed countries argue that their responsibilities are already reflected in the USD 300 billion per year finance goal, while others demand a new work programme. Positions also differ on how to assess national climate plans, including proposals for an annual consideration of progress. Several groups, including Aosis and the EIG, support a fossil fuel phase-out roadmap, which is being "strongly welcomed" by the EU. Nigeria cautioned that any transition "must recognise the very strong differences in economic opportunities." Brazil's environment minister Marina Silva said that a final decision is unlikely at COP 30, but she welcomes the "beginning of the construction" of such a roadmap.
COP30 Climate Summit: Pikachu-costumed activists urge Japan to stop funding fossil-fuel projects
On 15 November, the media reported the protest took place a day earlier during the COP30 summit in Belem, Brazil. Activists wore Pikachu costumes and staged a protest during the energy-themed day of the COP30 climate summit, calling on Japan to halt its overseas fossil-fuel investments. According to a study cited by protesters, Japan’s government-backed Japan Bank for International Cooperation provided USD 6.4 billion in loans for coal projects and USD 874 million for gas projects between 2016 and 2024. Demonstrators argued that these investments undermine fossil-fuel phase-out efforts in Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. Japan’s delegation declined to respond directly to the figures but stated that its cooperation with Southeast Asian nations aims to support “decarbonisation, economic growth and energy security simultaneously through various pathways.”
About the authors
Akshath Kaiman is a Research Intern at NIAS. Padmashree Anandhan, and Anu Maria Joseph are Project Associates at NIAS. Brighty Ann Sarah and R Preetha are postgraduate students at the Department of International Studies, Stella Maris College, Chennai. Lekshmi MK is a postgraduate student at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. Rizwana Banu, and Aparna A Nair are undergraduate students at the Department of Political Science, Madras Christian College, Chennai. M Kejia is an undergraduate student at the Department of Political Science and International Relations, Pondicherry University, Pondicherry.
