Conflict Weekly

CWA # 795
Conflict Weekly
Violence in Baghdad and Renewed fighting in Ethiopia

IPRI Team
1 September 2022
Photo Source: BBC/EPA

Conflict Weekly #139, 1 September 2022, Vol.3, No.22
An initiative by NIAS-IPRI and India Office of the KAS, New Delhi

Rashmi Ramesh and Anu Maria Joseph 

Iraq: Al-Sadr Withdraws, Protests Intensify

In the news
On 29 August, the Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr announced his withdrawal from politics and confirmed that all institutions linked to the Sadrist Movement would be shut down.  The announcement resulted in Sadr’s supporters storming the heavily fortified Green Zone and the Presidential Palace in Baghdad. The Sadrist Movement’s military wing Saraya al-Salam (the Peace Brigade) reportedly fired rocket-propelled grenades and fired used machine guns against the security forces and rival Shia groups. Al-Sadr announced a hunger strike after his withdrawal and said that he would continue until the use of force against his supporters persisted. 

On 30 August, al-Sadr addressed his supporters through a televised speech and asked them to end their protests. He said that the protest has “…lost its peaceful character…and the spilling of Iraqi blood is forbidden. There are uncontrolled militias, yes, but that does not mean the Sadrist Movement should also be uncontrolled.” Following the 60-minute deadline given by him, the protests reduced, and there was relative calm in Baghdad. 

Issues at large
First, the Sadrist movement. Muqtada al-Sadr a Shia scholar, cleric, and militia leader founded the Sadrist Movement after Saddam Hussein’s fall. He is a populist leader, drawing his support base from the working class and poorer sections of Baghdad and southern Iraq. A nationalist movement by origin, the Sadrist movement gains its popularity by seeking to detangle Iraq from American influence, Iran’s strong influence in political matters, and separating itself from the pro-Iran Shia factions.

Second, the political deadlock and instability. The Sadrist movement won 74 seats in the October 2021 elections, emerging as the largest faction in the 329-seat Parliament. He failed to secure a two-thirds majority and was unable to form the government, paving way for a political deadlock. After nearly eight months of failing to form the government, al-Sadr made his 74 legislators resign but warned of political pressure through possible mass demonstrations in support of his candidature. The protests now have prevented the parliament from convening and choosing the Prime Minister and President.

Third, the political situation since the war. The post-2003 political landscape of Iraq has been dominated by sectarian competition and rivalry between the Shias and Sunnis, with the increasing Shia-centric rebuilding. Political instability has been a recurring problem in the country, given the presence of numerous factions and their militias, rendering the Parliament without a majority for one political entity. Clearly, the 2005 constitution failed to create a representative and functioning government. The 2010 political deadlock that lasted for 290 days was the longest prior to the current deadlock. It also cemented Shia dominance in Iraqi politics and paved the way for more Iranian influence, as the majority of Sunni leaders and voters boycotted the election process. The massive protests in 2019 also have roots in political instability and its consequences.

In perspective
First, withdrawal as a last resort and pressure tactic. The Sadrists’ withdrawal from the Parliament, the threat of grouping the supporters against the rival Shia factions, the demonstrations and finally his withdrawal from politics are classic case of pressure tactics in place. The two-day deadly violence and subsequent end of protests following his televised address was a showcase of his prowess, his command over the population that supports him. His moves paid off when the Iraqi President Barham Saleh in his speech on 30 August, favoured a fresh election to form a government.

Second, fallout of the crisis. The current crisis threatens some of the progress achieved after the war and the fight against the Islamic State. Despite the relative calm in Baghdad, the existing tensions can quickly escalate in case of failure to reach an acceptable decision through a dialogue. The power struggle between the intra-Shiite is at its peak in Iraq and has a profound impact on Iran, who also a Shia majority state. The latter trains and supports militias and politically supports the Coordination Framework, the Sadrist Movements’ rival Shia coalition.

Third, the political crisis in the region. Political deadlocks, inability to form stable governments and demand for reforms is plaguing the Middle East. Israel is headed towards the fifth election in a span of four years after the Parliament was dissolved following the collapse of the coalition government headed by Prime Minister Neftali Bennett. Currently, Yair Lapid is the caretaker Prime Minister and until the elections are scheduled to be held in October. Lebanon is in the midst of a serious political and economic crisis, with the government formation process still being a point of disagreement between Prime Minister Najib Mikati and President Michael Aoun. A section of the population in Palestine is rallying, demanding political reforms and a formation of a functioning cabinet, ending the one-man presidential rule by Mahmoud Abbas. With Iraq’s crisis escalating, the region suffers from another backslide.

Ethiopia: Renewed fighting in Tigray, ending five months of ceasefire

In the news
On 24 August, fighting between Tigray rebels and Ethiopian federal forces erupted around the town of Kobo, ending a months-long ceasefire. The rebel group, the TPLF, accused the government forces and their allies of launching a “large scale” offensive toward southern Tigray. A TPLF spokesperson said: “…they (the government forces) launched the offensive early this morning around 5 am local time. We are defending our positions.” Whereas the government accused the TPLF of striking first. The Government Communication Service said in a statement: “…ignoring all of the peace alternatives presented by the government, the terrorist group TPLF armed group continued its recent provocations and launched an attack this morning at 5 am (00200 GMT).”

On 29 August, BBC reported, that the Tigrayan forces seized the Amhara town of Kobo on 27 August after pushing southwards near the border. UN chief Antonio Guterres said he was “deeply shocked” by the renewed fighting and called for an “immediate cessation of hostilities and for the resumption of peace talks.” The head of the African Union Commission, Moussa Faki Mahamat, appealed for a “de-escalation” and restoring “talks to seek a peaceful solution.” A US State Department spokesperson said that the US has urged both sides “to redouble efforts to advance talks to achieve a durable ceasefire.”

Issues at large
First, the failing ceasefire and peace process. In March, the Ethiopian government declared a unilateral humanitarian truce which eased the fighting. In June, the Ethiopian government called for a formal Tigray ceasefire agreement for the resumption of basic services reaching war-torn areas. However, the government wanted the African Union envoy to lead the peace talks, but the TPLF preferred former Kenyan president Uhuru Kenyatta as a mediator, which ended in no further developments. The new fight erupted and resumed hostilities, torpedoing a five-month ceasefire and peace efforts.

Second, a brief background to the conflict in Tigray. The roots of the conflict can be traced to September 2020, when the federal government postponed the elections, in which the Tigray leaders saw Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s attempt to centralize power and destroy Ethiopia’s federal system. In September, TPLF defied the central government to hold its own regional elections. In October, the rift grew after Abiy’s government suspended funding and cut ties with Tigray. In November, the central government launched a military offensive under “law enforcement operations” after the authorities accused Tigray forces of attacking a military camp and attempting to loot military assets. Eventually, the tensions evolved into a full-fledged conflict, spreading to neighbouring regions of Amhara, Oromo and Afar. Thousands were killed, nearly two million fled their homes, and seven million were facing “famine like conditions.”

Third, major actors. The Tigray people’s Liberation Front (TPLF) was a dominant force in the Ethiopian coalition government until 2018, though Tigrayans constituted only six per cent of the total population.  The discontent among the majority ethnic groups, the Oromo and Amhara, led to a popular uprising and the elevation of an Oromia leader, Abiy Ahmed, who is the founder of the prosperity party. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, a Nobel Peace Prize winner failed in handling the Tigray rebels. Further, his regime launched a full-scale attack on Tigray and committed human rights atrocities on the Tigray people. Abiy and his policies gradually lost support from his own community leading to an alliance between TPLF and Oromo Liberation Army. The Ethiopian defence forces, Amhara Special Forces and allied militia on one side and the TPLF and Oromo Liberation Army on the other side engaged in the conflict. Also fighting on the government side were troops from Eritrea, whose leader Isaias Afwerki is close to Abiy Ahmed and a sworn enemy to TPLF.

In perspective
First, the Tigray rebels and the government forces have been continuously in talk fights and blamed each other for instigating the conflict. This led to a lack of progress toward peace negotiations and a volatile truce finally led to the resumption of fighting. 

Second, the UN World Food Programme said the previous week that about half the population of Tigray suffered from lack of food and rate of malnutrition “skyrocketed”.  As the humanitarian truce appears to be at an end, the relapse into fighting is likely to have a severe impact on the humanitarian situation and the reach of aid in Tigray.

Third, a joint mediation under multiple external actors including African Union, Kenya’s government, the UN and other international bodies and powers, is important to discuss their disagreements and avoid talk fights. 

Report review
Drought in Europe, August 2022: Four Takeaways
Rishma Banerjee

On 22 August, the Global Drought Observatory (EDO), under the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRD) released an analytical report titled “Drought in Europe, August 2022” on the drought conditions across Europe in August. The report maps the geographical extent of the 2022 drought in the continent. So far, drought hazard is increasing in Italy, Spain, Portugal, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Luxembourg, Romania, Hungary, northern Serbia, Ukraine, Moldova, Ireland and the United Kingdom. The rest of Europe does face drought, and the dry conditions are maintained. While sporadic rains have brought relief to some regions, the associated thunderstorms and flash floods have caused damage. The report warns that warmer and drier than usual conditions are likely to occur in the western Euro-Mediterranean region till November 2022. Experts at the JRD stated that the 2022 drought could be the worst drought Europe experienced in the last 500 years

Four takeaways
First, the geographic spread. As per the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI) report, 64 per cent of Europe is under drought warning, 47 per cent is under 'warning' conditions, and 17 per cent is under 'alert' conditions. In GDO’s July report, only nine per cent of Europe was under “alert” conditions, and 53 per cent had drought warnings. Whereas in August, the severe-to-extreme, broad, meteorological drought covered almost two-thirds of Europe, across Italy, France, Germany, southern Norway, the Balkans and Eastern Europe.

Second, worsening drought conditions. The major rivers across Europe such as the Po River in Italy, the Rhine River in Germany and Netherlands, and the Loire River in France continue to remain dried, which is impacting the water distribution, water transport and the ecosystems of the river basins. Apart from the geographic impact, all the markers determining the severity of a drought show negative values. This includes standardized precipitation index, soil moisture anomaly, and the fraction of solar radiation absorbed by plants for photosynthesis.

Third, the widespread impact. Water restrictions and rationing have been introduced in many areas across Spain, France and Italy, hampering civilian life. The droughts have also affected the energy and agriculture sectors. Reduced storage of water has impacted the energy sector for both hydropower generation and cooling systems of other power plants. Low water levels have reduced inland shipping loads further affecting coal and oil transport. In agriculture, water and heat stresses and low soil moisture have substantially reduced summer crop yields. The most affected crops are grains like maize, soyabean and sunflowers. Thus, given Europe’s impending energy crisis and the global food security crisis, these industries getting affected, hamper the broader security of the continent. 

Fourth, the triggers. Europe’s continuing heatwaves, wildfires, along with dry conditions are prolonging the recovery time of the droughts. Dry air is getting heated up more easily, creating high-pressure‘ heat domes.’ These ‘heat domes’ deflect precipitation to enhance the severity of droughts. Moreover, high mid-tropospheric pressure anomalies, associated with both heatwaves and droughts, have been noticed over most of the continent. These are steering away continental weather systems that bring moist and cool air. Additionally, the atypical splitting of the jet stream into two streams has also brought in hot weather from North Africa into Europe instead of the moisture-laden winds, thus contributing to the drought condition. 

Also, from around the World
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East and Southeast Asia
China: Police authorities arrest 234 people over the banking scandal
On 29 August, the police authorities of Xuchang village announced that they had arrested 234 for their involvement in the banking scandal which restricted thousands of people from withdrawing their deposits and led to mass protests. The police further explained that the authorities were making significant progress in the investigation and the recovery of stolen funds was ongoing. According to the statement by the village’s police, “A criminal gang illegally controlled four village and town banks and was suspected of committing a series of serious crimes.” On the same day, the Henan Banking and Insurance Regulator announced that it would start repaying individuals who had deposited 4,00,000 and 5,00,000 yuan.
 
China: Hong Kong Senior Justice rejects Jimmy Lai’s journalistic privilege
On 30 August, senior Justice Wilson Chan involved in cases relating to the National Security Law announced that Apple Daily’s former chief Jimmy Lai’s phones would be searched on the grounds of national security and he would not be protected by journalistic privilege. Lai’s team of lawyers had initially said that the phones would not be subject to investigation under the journalistic privilege, which is recognized by case law in Hong Kong. However, the police applied for a search warrant in July under the National Security Law. Justice Chan allowed the search and said: “Press freedom simply does not equate (to) any blanket prohibition against the seizure, production or disclosure of journalistic materials.”

China: Extreme temperatures result in the drying of river beds and basins
On 29 August, the Asahi Shimbun reported that China is battling the hottest ever heat wave and that the temperatures in the country had crossed 40 degrees Celsius in the middle and downstream areas of the Yangtze River. The extreme heat had resulted in serious drying up of the river beds and basins while also affecting the hydropower generation in the country. According to the locals, the country had previously witnessed high temperatures. However, the high temperatures would last for two or three days, unlike this year when it has lasted for more than a month.

Taiwan: China rejects drone harassment complaints
On 29 August, China’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zhao Lijian responded to Taiwan’s complaints of repeated harassment by Chinese drones and said that China was flying them in its own territory. China is also being accused of erasing the imaginary median line that separates Taiwan and China in the Taiwan Strait. The People’s Republic of China never recognized the line but unofficially maintained it by not crossing the line. However, since US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, China has increased the pressure on Taiwan by repeated military drills around the island. Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry also responded to China’s rejection of the complaints and said: “There is an ancient Chinese teaching that 'uninvited people are called thieves'. Whether it is breaking through the door or peeping from the air, the people of Taiwan do not welcome such thieves.”

Taiwan: Warning shots fired at a Chinese drone 
On 30th August, the Taiwan military fired at a Chinese drone hovering around Erdan islet, an offshore islet, to warn China. The President of the Republic of China, Tsai Ing-wen said: “We will not provoke disputes, and we will exercise self-restraint, but it does not mean that we will not counter.” This is the first instance that Taiwan responded, and after the warning shots were fired, the drone flew back to China. China rejected Taiwan’s remarks as “nothing to make a fuss about.” Previously, Taiwan has repeatedly protested about China’s military exercises around the Kinmen islands, a Taiwanese territory. 
 
Myanmar: Junta troops retaliated
On 25 August, the Myanmar troops set ablaze hundreds of houses and took 60 villagers as hostages in Kyunhla Township, Kantbalu District of Sagaing Region. This comes as a response to resistance forces’ killing of 30 junta soldiers when 67 troops burnt down villages located across the border of Kantbalu and Kawlin townships. Earlier, the troops torched the entire Einche village, launching surprise attacks and burning down the Inyashae village. 

Taiwan: Plan to boost defence spending 
On 25 August, the President of the Republic of China, Tsai Ing-wen disclosed plans to enhance the country’s defence budget spending to 13.9 per cent, a drastic increase in spending compared to past years amounting to only three to four per cent.  The budget will be spent on financing fighter jets and other military equipment. Previously, Taiwan had claimed that it would spend about USD 8.69 billion by 2026 to enhance its “naval capabilities”. Tsai claimed that threats or pressures would not deter the country’s resolve to uphold its sovereignty. However, the President, Tsai Ing-wen also stated: “At the same time, as a responsible member of the international community, Taiwan will not provoke incidents nor escalate conflicts.”
 
Vietnam: Coordinates with Cambodia to protect Vietnamese civilians from human trafficking
On 25 August, in the wake of a shocking incident where 40 Vietnamese citizens working in Cambodia escaped from exploitative working conditions and swam to Vietnam, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Việt Nam, Lê Thị Thu Hằng claimed that the Cambodian officials and Vietnamese domestic officials were directed by the Foreign Ministry to assist Vietnamese nationals stranded in Cambodia. The spokesperson claimed that about 500 Vietnamese citizens were rescued, while others were assisted in documentation procedures. The chief obstacle was identity verification of Vietnamese, the latter lacking identification documents as they illegally crossed the borders for work. The Cambodian authorities have extended support in the repatriation of Vietnamese civilians and in arresting the perpetrators.

Philippines: Typhoon Hinnamnor to change its form to Hurricane
On 31 August, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) spotted a tropical depression and super typhoon changing to a hurricane on Wednesday but are unlikely to hit the country directly. Tropical Depression hovers over the Philippine Sea. Pagasa said Hinnamnor continues to stay outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Pagasa said the typhoon was estimated some 1,130 kilometres east of extreme Northern Luzon while moving north-eastward at 10 kilometers per hour.

Indonesia: Strong earthquake shakes western Indonesia, causes panic
On 29 August, a strong earthquake struck off the coast of Indonesia’s Sumatra Island, causing residents to panic, but there were no immediate reports of casualties or serious damage. Indonesia’s meteorology and geophysics agency (BMKG) recorded the magnitude 6.5 earthquake off the Mentawai islands and said it did not trigger a tsunami warning. It was the third earthquake felt in the area on the same day. A magnitude 5.2 earthquake was recorded before dawn, followed by a magnitude 5.4 quake less than an hour later. The magnitude 6.5 earthquake was felt for several seconds in the provincial capital of Padang and in the surrounding mountainous area of Bukit Tinggi. The agency said there were no reports of casualties, but there was minor damage to buildings on Siberut Island.

South Asia
Sri Lanka: Indian fishermen arrested
On 28 August, six Indian fishermen were arrested by Sri Lankan Navy in Rameswaram for fishing in their waters and crossing the International Maritime Boundary Line. The boat was seized by the Navy. On 22 August 10 Indian fishermen were arrested by the Navy in Talaimannar and were handed over to the Mannar authorities for further investigation.

Pakistan: Government declares ‘national emergency’ amid rain-induced floods
On 25 August, the government declared a ‘national emergency’ amid the rain-induced floods terming it a “climate-inducted humanitarian crisis of epic proportions.” As of 29 August, the death toll from the floods reached 1,033, including 343 children, and at least 30 million without shelter. According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Sindh reported the highest number of deaths as 306 people lost their lives due to floods and rain-related incidents on 14 June, while Balochistan, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab recorded 234, 185 and 165 deaths, respectively.

Afghanistan: Six million Afghans are at risk of famine as crises grow, says UN Humanitarian Chief 
On 29 August, the United Nations humanitarian chief Martin Griffiths told the UN Security Council that Afghanistan faces multiple crises including a humanitarian, economic, climate, hunger and financial. He claimed that the current situation is critical due to the halting of the large-scale development aid since the Taliban takeover a year ago. Further, he warned that six million people were at risk of famine and added that the donors should immediately provide USD 770 million to help Afghans survive the upcoming winters.

Pakistan: IMF grants bailout funds of over USD 1.1 billion
On 29 August, the government of Pakistan reported the release of bailout money by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) worth USD 1.1 billion. The IMF agreed to release funds to the cash-strapped economy after clearing the seventh and eighth reviews of the program. Pakistan is suffering from the devastating losses incurred due to the continuous floods and rains and has been in an economic slump for a long time. This bailout package could prove to be a lifesaver in such a situation. Although the criteria were unfulfilled to receive the funding, the IMF allowed Pakistan’s request for waivers for the same.

Sri Lanka: President presents an interim budget to cope with the crisis
On 29 August, Sri Lankan president Ranil Wickremesinghe set out to present an interim budget to manoeuvre through the difficulties being faced by the country. The budget aims to cut spending by a few hundred billion rupees to settle outstanding loan interests and save up for welfare schemes for the citizens. Being a finance minister of the country, Ranil plans to improve the conditions of the worst hit and introduce new taxes to settle deficits. The government also hopes to introduce a full-year budget by November that would include a better and broader recovery plan.  

India: Argentina receives support on the Falklands issue
On 26 August, the External Affairs Minister (EAM), Jaishankar of India extended support to Argentina on the issue of the contested Falklands Islands. India pushed for international dialogue between Argentina and the United Kingdom on the Falklands issue that has been simmering for the past four decades. During his meeting with the Argentinian president Alberto Fernández, discussed future military and defence strategic ties and payments through local currencies, along with the more highlighted Falklands matter. Later, Argentina lauded India’s support on the issue, stating their commonalities involving a colonial past.

Central Asia, Middle East, and Africa
Azerbaijan-Armenia: Azeri forces take over key town of Lachin 
On 26 August, Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev claimed that his country's armed forces have taken control over the key town of Lachin, which links Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia. Further, he claimed that they had also taken control of the villages of Zabux and Sus in the Lachin district. Under the peace agreement signed in 2020 by Yerevan, Baku, and Moscow, the five-kilometer-wide Lachin corridor, including the town of Lachin, would remain under Russian peacekeeping control until the construction of a new route connecting Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh is planned.

Syria: US raids against Iran-linked fighters
On 24 August, US Central Command launched raids against Iran-backed militants in the northeastern part of Syria. The attacks killed two militants and wounded US soldiers. The CENTCOM (United States Central Command) said that the raid was carried out in accordance with the orders from President Joe Biden and was in direct response to the 15 August attack on the al-Tanf Garrison housing US troops. The undersecretary of defence, Colin Kahl for policy told: “The United States will not hesitate to defend itself against Iranian and Iran-backed aggression when it occurs.”

Europe and the Americas
Russia: Gazprom profits soar by 30 per cent following promises of profits and dividend
On 31 August, the Gazprom Board recommended paying dividends on record net profits in the first half of 2022. The company has been seeing a rise in its profits regardless of the war and sanctions. On 29 August, the company announced that it made 2.5 trillion Rubles ( USD 41.36 billion) in net profit in the first six months of 2022 hence they recommend paying 1.2 trillion Rubles at 51.03 Rubles ($0.85) per ordinary share in interim dividends. This announcement led to the value of Gazprom shares rising 30 per cent after the stock market opened on 31 August. 

Russia: Mikhail Gorbachev Dies 
On 30 August, after battling a serious and long illness, Mikhail Gorbachev was declared dead at the age of 91 by the Moscow Central Clinical Hospital. Gorbachev, as the last General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, played a prominent role in bringing the Cold War to a halt. Starting his era in the year 1985, with perestroika or the reform of the Soviet System, he played a massive role in global politics until 1991, when his era ended with the coup which resulted in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Born to a family of Russian-Ukrainian peasants, he was admired in the West for his role in ending the Cold War but was seen as a divisive figure in Russia for instituting policies that led to the loss of superpower status. He is popularly known for his policies of perestroika and glasnost, in an attempt to reform the already declining social, political, and economic status of the USSR.

Poland: European Judges groups sue European Council over Poland’s recovery plan
On 28 August, a lawsuit was filed against the European Council regarding Poland's recovery and resilience plan at the EU’s General Court by four associations representing judges in Europe. Poland's access to EUR 35 billion from the COVID-19 recovery fund was authorised by the European Council in June. However, the associations challenged this move saying that Poland’s replacement of the controversial disciplinary chamber for judges falls short of the rule of law “milestones” that the EU requires. The Association of European Administrative Judges (AEAJ), the European Association of Judges (EAJ), Rechters Voor Rechters and Magistrates Européens pour la Démocratie et les Libertés (MEDEL) are the groups behind the lawsuit. The associations said that since their legal action does not invalidate the Council’s decision, they would seek suspension of the disbursement of funds via interim measures. 

Canada: Invokes treaty to keep Line-5 pipeline open 
On 30 August, The Guardian reported on Canada’s need to keep the Line 5 gas pipeline open to avoid economic damages. The pipeline operated by a Calgary-based company Enridge was built in 1953, is 645 miles long through Michigan and the Great Lakes area, satisfying the oil needs of Quebec and Ontario as well as propane, needed for heating homes in Michigan. The pipeline is in dispute as indigenous tribes in Wisconsin argue that the pipeline can no longer pass through their territory after the easement period expires. However, Canada has used a treaty signed and ratified by the US Congress in 1977 that allows the free flow of oil and gas between the two countries. In its defence, it has invoked the treaty multiple times to preserve the flow of fuel for its country. 
 
The US: US Secret Service official involved in capitol riots retires
On 30 August, The Guardian reported that Tony Ornato, deemed as a person of interest by the Congressional Committee on the Capitol Riots hearing, has stepped down, who was the deputy chief of the Secret Service and had oversight over its operations. A White House aide, Cassidy Hutchinson testified that Oranto had given her an account of the incident which involved Trump becoming irritated at his Security detail. Where Trump allegedly attacked his security detail when he refused to drive him to Capitol that morning and lunged to grab his throat. Ornato, however, denied this account. He was also alleged to have briefed the White House aides that weapons were going to be carried on the day of the riots.

The US: Biden determined to ban assault weapons 
On 31 August, Biden in his address stated he is “determined” to ban assault weapons in the US as part of his Safer America plan. He presented statistics where 48,000 americans died of gunshot wounds in 2021 and 26,000 to suicide. He also targeted the National Rifle Association (NRA) stating: “we beat the NRA” referencing the bipartisan gun control law he signed this year. Other areas of interest Biden addressed in his speech include policy push for monkey pox vaccination, equality of LGBTQ+ rights, tightened election rules by the Department of Justice barring election officials from attending and rebuffing funding of the police. 
 
Argentina: Clashes between police and civilians over judgement on Vice President 
On 28 August, thousands of people took to the streets in support of Vice President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner after a federal prosecutor requested a 12-year sentence for her in an alleged corruption scandal. The allegations suggested that between 2007 and 2015, Fernandez was the leader of an illegal association involving high-ranking public officials and also recommended banning her from holding public office. Demonstrations broke out after local authorities erected barricades near the Vice President’s house. This led to violent clashes between the police and the protestors resulting in attacks on police vehicles and the use of a hydrant truck to disperse the crowd. 

Mexico: Commission on missing students states military involvement in the scandal 
On 27 August, the Truth Commission set up to investigate the 2014 case of 43 missing students claimed military ties to the mysterious disappearances. The report revealed that six of those students were held hostage in a warehouse for days before being handed over to the local army commander, who ordered them to be killed. Furthermore, an anonymous emergency call was registered by the army four days after the students’ abduction which alluded to the collusion between the state and the criminal group Guerreros Unidos. The motive behind the military’s participation remains unidentified. Aggrieved parents carried out a march demanding answers and reinstating their claim of the incident being a state crime. 

Mexico: Eight found dead with gunshot wounds 
On 25 August, eight people were found dead in the township of Tuzantla, in Michoacan near a butterfly reserve. The bodies were found with gunshot wounds and state prosecutors found shell casings at the scene. Michoacan has been a centre for violent wars among drug cartels for years, however, the circumstances of the killings are still under investigation. No arrests have been made so far.

About the authors
Rashmi Ramesh, Akriti Sharma, Ankit Singh, and Harini Madhusudan are Doctoral scholars at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS. Avishka Ashok, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, and Padmashree Anandhan are Project Associates at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS. Joel Jacob, Anu Maria Joseph, Rishma Banerjee, and Sai Pranav are Research Assistants at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS. Lavanya Ravi and Shruti Sadhasivam are Post Graduate scholars from Christ (Deemed to be) University, Bangalore. Sejal Sharma and Vijay Anand Panigrahi are Post Graduate Scholars from Pondicherry University, Puducherry.


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The US-Iran War Week Thirteen: Escalating Hostilities, Tenuous Ceasefire and Tense Negotiations
CW Column
May 2026 | CWA # 2119

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
The Ebola spread in DR Congo, The Faye-Sonko split in Senegal, and the Deepening US military involvement in Nigeria
TWTW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2115

Aparna A Nair

The Putin-Xi Summit
Trade, Technology, Security, and Pipeline
Global Politics Explainer
May 2026 | CWA # 2114

Glynnis Winona B

What makes the UAE a global player?
Explaining the Governance, Economy, People, and Strategic Influence of a Small Middle Eastern State
Global Politics Explainer
May 2026 | CWA # 2113

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Sri Lanka and the US-Iran War 
Rising oil imports, Austerity measures and State capacity
The World This Week
May 2026 | CWA # 2111

NIAS Global Politics Team

The Trump-Xi Summit
The Africa Forward Summit 2026 I North Korea's Constitutional Amendment 2026
TWTW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2110

Aishal Hab Yousuf

The Trump-Xi Summit:
Managing Strategic Competition through Trade, Technology, and Diplomacy
Conflict Weekly
May 2026 | CWA # 2092

NIAS Global Politics Team

The US-Iran War, Week Ten
CW Column on Middle East: Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAE's Covert Manoeuvres
CW Column
May 2026 | CWA # 2091

Brighty Ann Sarah

Conflicts in the Middle East:
Escalating Israeli Aggression in Lebanon I UAEs Covert Manoeuvres
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2090

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Ten:
Fraying Ceasefire, Renewed Negotiations and the Risk of a Stalemate
TWTW Takeaways
May 2026 | CWA # 2088

Nithin V

King Charles's US Visit:
Emphasis on strong bilateral relations, democratic values and security cooperation
TWTW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2086

Aishal Hab Yousuf

UAEs Exit from OPEC:
Implications for the Middle East and the Energy Market
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2083

Brighty Ann Sarah

The US-Iran War, Week Nine:
Deadlocked Negotiations, Competing Agendas and Domestic Pressure
CW Note
May 2026 | CWA # 2082

Akshath Kaimal

Escalating Violence in Mali:
Between Ethnic Insurgencies, Jihadist Attacks, and Military Coups
TWTW Note
April 2026 | CWA # 2079

Aishal Hab Yousuf

Japans New Defence Posture:
From Post-War Pacifism to Strategic Recalibration and Autonomy
CW Note
April 2026 | CWA # 2074

Brighty Ann Sarah

Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire:
Asymmetric Terms, Fragile Truce and Israeli Occupation
CW Note
April 2026 | CWA # 2073

Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad
Special Commentary
April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan
Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Expanding Drone Warfare, Russia's Strategic Patience and Ukraine's Diplomatic Outreach
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2068

Femy Francis

China-Japan Tensions
Escalating Defence Posturing and Economic Decoupling
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar
Peace and Conflicts This Quarter (JanuaryMarch 2026)
April 2026 | CWA # 2066

Akshath Kaimal

The Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Recurrent Clashes, Defiant Taliban, Contesting Narratives and Emerging Chinas Role
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The Middle East (JanMar 2026):
The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Afghanistan (JanMar 2026):
Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)
Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)
Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2059

Adarsh Vijay

India and the World(Jan-Mar 2026)
Maintaining Strategic Autonomy, Balancing the US relations and Resetting the China ties
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)
Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)
An Illegitimate Regimes Consolidation Game
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2055

Haans J Freddy

East Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Chinas military operations near Taiwan, Japan-China tensions and South Koreas security challenges
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

Chinas External Landscape (Jan-Mar 2026):
Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East
The World This Quarter
April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

The United States(Jan-Mar2026)
Tariffs, Ukraine, Iran and Operationalization of Trumps World Order
March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting
Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?
March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:
Five major challenges for the new government
March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War
UNSC Resolution 2817 between Clear and Unified Message and Manifest Injustice
March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

Chinas Two Sessions 2026
New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget
March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
March 2026 | CWA # 2012

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Long-range strikes, Defence adaptation and the EUs energy dependence
Global Politics Early Bird
March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026
The Rise of the New and the Fall of the Old
March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The Forgotten South Sudan Conflict
Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modis Visit to Israel
From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership
February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover
PR Commentary
February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan
The return of Basant, and what it signifies
February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria
US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency
February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine
The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26
Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints
Pakistan in 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China
Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
PR Explainer
November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US
A New opening, or another cycle?
February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China
PM Keir Starmers visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties
TWTW Note
January 2026 | CWA # 1946

R Preetha

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
State of Global Politics 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
TWTW note
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
The World This Week
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
This Week in History
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
The World This Week
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
Conflict Weekly
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
Global Politics Explainer
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
Conflict Weekly
June 2025 | CWA # 1709

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #284-285
Cambodia-Thailand Border Tensions, Protests in the US, and the Indigenous Māori question in New Zealand
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
Global Politics Explainer
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
TWTW Note
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
The World This Week
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
The World This Week
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1672

D Suba Chandran

India and Pakistan:
De-escalation and the “New Normal”
CW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
TWTW Note
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
Conflict Weekly
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
Global Politics Early Bird
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
NIAS Global Politics Database
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
NIAS Global Politics Database
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
The War in Ukraine
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
IPRI Quarterly Forecasts I Triggers, Trends, and Trajectories
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
2022: The World This Year
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
Europe: Heatwaves, Wildfires, Droughts, and Ice Melt in Alps
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
NIAS Africa Weekly
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
The World This Week: 150th Issue
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
Pakistan Reader
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
NIAS Fortnightly on Science, Technology & International Relations
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
Science, Technology and International Relations
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
South Asia Monthly Brief (Nov 2018)
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan