Conflict Weekly

Conflict Weekly
A ceasefire in DRC and a report on the repatriation from Syria's detention camps

IPRI Team
25 November 2022
Photo Source: AP/CGTN

Conflict Weekly #151, 24 November 2022, Vol.3, No.34

An initiative by NIAS-IPRI and KAS-India Office

Apoorva Sudhakar and Farhan Hussain


Democratic Republic of the Congo: Despite ceasefire, peace in the east likely to remain distant

In the news

On 23 November, Angola’s foreign minister announced that regional leaders had agreed to a ceasefire in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, for cessation of hostilities from 25 November. The ceasefire was signed by DRC, Rwanda, Angola, Burundi and former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta. The ceasefire calls on the M23 to withdraw from all the areas it controls and disarm and surrender to the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC).
 
On 21 November, Kenyan President William Ruto met Felix Tshisekedi, President of DRC, in Kinshasa where Ruto had emphasized the East African Community’s (EAC) commitment “to do whatever it takes” to support Tshisekedi, the Congolese government, and its people in ensuring peace in the DRC. Ruto said: “It’s in our interest, collectively and individually, that we have a peaceful region.” The same day, Uganda assured that Kampala would send 1000 troops to DRC under the EAC’s regional force. Meanwhile, mediation talks between the DRC government and rebels in the country's east, scheduled for the day, were postponed. 
 
On 19 November, the Rwanda Defence Force (RDF) killed a soldier suspected to be from the FARDC; the RDF claimed the soldier had crossed into Rwandan territory and opened fire at local forces. However, DRC maintained that no FARDC soldier was missing.
 
On 18 November, news agencies, referring to an EAC statement, reported that mediator and former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and Rwandan President Paul Kagame had agreed on the necessity of a ceasefire and withdrawal of the M23 from the towns they captured.  Reuters quoted the deputy spokesperson of the DRC president: “It is encouraging to see Paul Kagame recognize that he can influence the M23.” 
 
Issues at large

First, the latest violence between DRC forces and M23. Since late October, violence between the M23 and Congolese forces has escalated with the latter trying to recapture rebel-held territories in North Kivu province in the east. A UNICEF report indicates that 234,500 have fled the conflict areas and daily activities in rebel-controlled Rutshuru town have come to a standstill, except for “a few actors.” 
 
Second, rebel groups in DRC’s east. The M23 (acronymized from March 23), formed from a mutiny within the FARDC in 2012 by former militiamen who were integrated into the army, demands the rights and representation of  Congolese Tutsis. However, in 2013, the M23 rebellion was suppressed by the FARDC and UN missions. Apart from the M23, an estimated 120 militia groups who have their roots in the two Congo wars in 1994 and 1996 and those that emerged later with support from neighbouring countries, operate in the east. 
 
Third, accusations and counter-accusations. The DRC government claims it has evidence that Rwanda supports the rebels. The government also expelled Kigali's ambassador to Kinshasa. The constant accusations instilled an anti-Rwanda sentiment among the Congolese who have been holding protests against Rwanda. Meanwhile, Rwanda has denied the allegations and has, instead, accused DRC of supporting groups operating against the government in Kigali.
 
Fourth, failure of previous attempts to reduce tensions. The latest development comes after talks failed in July 2022. The M23 resurfaced after a ten-year hiatus in November 2021 when it started attacking FARDC positions in North Kivu. By March 2022, the group had captured areas along DRC’s border with Uganda and Rwanda and moved further towards the provincial capital, Goma. At the time, DRC-Rwanda relations soured and in July, both countries agreed to de-escalate tensions. However, the M23 reiterated: “We are Congolese, not Rwandan. If there's a ceasefire, it can only be between us and the Congolese government."
 
In perspective

First, the M23 demands that the DRC government negotiates with and considers them as Congolese citizens and not link them with Rwanda. However, the government has not met this demand so far; the lack of negotiations, therefore, is likely to fortify the violence in the east. Simultaneously, the constant blame game between Kinshasa and Kigali over M23 activities could worsen the relationship between the two countries, which has been precarious since the 1990s. 
 
Second, the involvement of the EAC commenced after DRC joined the regional trade bloc in April. With DRC’s inclusion, the EAC territory spans from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic, and  DRC offers a vast market, not just in terms of consumers but also for its resources and minerals. However, the tensions and frequent recalling of diplomats between DRC and Rwanda hinder the smooth functioning and potential growth within the EAC as the DRC connects with other EAC members such as Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
 
Third, with the UN peacekeepers facing an increased backlash within DRC, the involvement of regional troops is a new option for the government and the people. The military may be able to quell the M23 as they did in 2013, however, they can neither address the insecurity stemming from other groups nor will they be able to establish peace in the region pursuing kinetic options alone. 


Conflict Weekly Exclusive
Report Review
Human Rights Watch report on repatriation of women and children from Syria’s detention camps: Three takeaways
 
On 21 November, Human Rights Watch released the report “My Son is Just Another Kid: Experiences of Children Repatriated from Camps for ISIS Suspects and Their Families in Northeast Syria.”  The report details the repatriation of foreign nationals from Syrian detention camps between February and September 2022 through interviewees, comprising caregivers, social workers, and teachers, and provides information on approximately 100 foreign children detained for being related to ISIS suspects. These children now reside in France, Germany, Sweden, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan.

The following thakeways could be identified:
1. Apathy of the Western countries towards their nationals. The report highlights how many of these countries are critical and strongly against repatriating their citizens, who willingly joined a globally recognized terrorist organization. For instance, France, Germany, and the Netherlands started repatriating their nationals only after legal pressure. As of November 2022, the Netherlands had repatriated 18 women and 44 children, which included 12 women and 28 children repatriated on 31 October 2022 after a court order. Similarly, France was forced to start repatriating more of its nationals after the European Court of Human Rights urged it to do so. Likewise, Germany had initially declined to repatriate several women with their children, citing security concerns. However, several German courts ruled that repatriating children without their mothers would violate German laws protecting family unity; only then did Germany oblige to repatriate more of their women. The report also highlights countries such as the UK and Canada have carried out the least number of repatriations; as of October 2022, the UK had repatriated one woman and her child, while Canada, as of November 2022, had repatriated three women and four children. Meanwhile, Russia and Central Asian countries have together repatriated about 1000 children, almost twice that of all Western countries combined.
 
2. Successful integration of repatriated children. Most of these children have been successfully integrated or reintegrated into their respective countries of origin. When asked about how the repatriated children were adjusting in their native countries, 70 per cent of the respondents (which included parents, family members, social workers, teachers, foster parents, lawyers, psychologists and legal guardians) said, “Very Well”, 19 per cent said, “Quite Well”, and only four per cent said “Having Difficulties.” On schooling, 38 per cent of the respondents said the children were doing very well, while 35 per cent said they were doing quite well and seven per cent said the children were having difficulties. On emotional and psychological well-being, 52 per cent said the children were doing very good, while 30 per cent said quite good and only six per cent said the children were having difficulties. These data reveal that the majority of the repatriated children had no issues in settling into their new living conditions.
 
3. Hindrances to the transition process. Even though most children settled into their new environments, the governments of several countries hindered the transition process. The separation of children from their mothers upon repatriation and arrival in their native countries is perhaps the most detrimental action the governments subjected the repatriated children to. The report emphasised the gravity of this situation point out that children who were separated from their mothers upon repatriation wanted to go back to the detention camps in Syria if that was the only way to be with their mothers. The authorities need to take the impact of separation into consideration even as they detain the mothers and come up with novel way to address this emerging issue.


Also, from around the World
Rashmi Ramesh, Joel Jacob, Abigail Fernandez, Apoorva Sudhakar, Abigail Miriam Fernandez, Avishka Ashok, Anu Maria Joseph, Madhura Mahesh, Padmashree Anandhan, Sai Pranav, Madhura Mahesh, Sethuraman N and Bhoomika Sesharaj
 
East and Southeast Asia
China: Climate Change envoy calls on developed countries to contribute to “loss and damage” fund
On 20 November, China’s special envoy for climate change Xie Zhenhua addressed a conference at the 27th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP27) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. He called on the developed countries to contribute to the Paris Agreement’s “loss and damage” fund. Xie emphasised that the developed countries were obligated to contribute to the fund once it was established to help developing countries in their battle against climate change. China also advocated for the most vulnerable countries to receive the financial support first due to the size of the fund.
 
China: Six staff members from Apple Daily plead guilty to foreign collusion
On 22 November, six senior staff members from Hong Kong’s now defunct pro-democracy tabloid, Apple Daily, pleaded guilty to charges of collusion with foreign forces. The maximum sentence these six people including four former senior editors and two ex-executives, could get is life in prison. Their arrests were considered to be a landmark case as the city’s national security law imposed by Beijing in 2020 was used for the first time against news organisations and their staff. They were charged with, “conspiracy to collude with foreign forces to endanger national security,” and using Apple Daily to spread content that solicited foreign sanctions against China. The six former staffers convicted were chief executive Cheung Kim-hung, associate publisher Chan Pui-man, chief editor Law Wai-kwong, executive editor Lam Man-chung and senior writers Fung Wai-kong and Yeung Ching-kee.
 
China: Authorities announce first COVID-19 death in almost six months
On 20 November, China announced its first new death from COVID-19 since 26 May 2022. The death of an 87-year-old Beijing man was the first death reported by the National Health Commission on 19 November, almost six months after a death was reported in Shanghai. On 19 November, National Health Commission announced that 24,215 new cases were detected in over 24 hours, most of which were asymptomatic. The overall vaccination coverage after receiving at least one dose is around 92 per cent. The figure is still significantly lower among the elderly, especially those aged 80 and over where only 65 per cent have been vaccinated. The commission did not provide information on the vaccination status of the youngest deceased.
 
Solomon Island: An earthquake of 7.3 magnitude in richter scale causes Tsunami alarms
On 22 November, Solomon Island was hit by  an earthquake of magnitude 7.3. According to the US Geological Survey, the epicentre was found to be 19 kilometres southwest of Malango. The earthquake triggered a tsunami warning near the coast  300 kilometres within the epicentre. New Zealand’s National Emergency Management Authority said that there was no tsunami warning issued  for the country and that it would be cautious of  any signs of a tsunami.
 
Japan: SM-3 ballistic missile interceptors test in Hawaii
On 21 November, Japan conducted its first SM-3 ballistic missile test in Hawaii after North Korea’s string of rocket launches towards its eastern and western coast since September. Japan’s Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF) stated that it fired SM-3 Block IIA and SM-3 Block IB from Maya and Haguro destroyers, respectively, successfully hitting the targets. The missile launched with the support of the US Navy and the US Missile Defence Agency to confirm the functioning of the ballistic missile defence (BMD). The missile launch was estimated to cost   USD 780 million.
 
Korean Peninsula: North Korea fires an ICBM that landed near Hokkaido
On 18 November, South Korea’s Joint Chief of Staff (JCS) reported that an Intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was suspected of being fired from Pyongyang. The missile launch followed North Korea’s Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui’s warning of a fiercer response if the US increases its regional influence US President Joe Biden, South Korea’s President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida had met on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Cambodia; short-range ballistic missile was fired on the same day. The missile landed 200 kilometres from the west coast of Hokkaido, Japan’s northern island, in its exclusive economic zone.
 
Indonesia: Earthquake of magnitude 5.6 struck West java killing 162 people
On 20 November, an earthquake hit the main island of Java killing 162 people and injuring hundreds. A magnitude of 5.6 was recorded in west Java. The area where the earthquake struck is densely populated and prone to landslides with poorly built houses, making the casualty rates high. The government stated that more than 13,000 people were displaced and 2200 homes were damaged. The tremor and the resultant waves were felt in Jakarta which is 100 kilometres away.
 
Philippines: Tensions over rocket debris with China in South China Sea
On 21 November, Chinese vessels blocked the Philippines naval boat twice before taking the debris from Thittu island, owned by the Philippines. The debris was described as metallic pieces that originated from a recent Chinese rocket launch. The Chinese spokesperson denied the confrontation news and said both countries had friendly negotiations over the debris taking. He said the Philippines government has handed over the debris to China and settled the issue without disclosing any further statements regarding the same.
 
South Asia
Pakistan: Transgender community demand equal rights at first ‘Moorat March’ in Karachi
On 20 November, members of the transgender community and activists gathered for the ‘Sindh Moorat March 2022’ at Karachi’s Frere Hall. The march is believed to be the first of its kind, campaigning for equal rights and raising awareness of discrimination against the transgender community. The Sindh Moorat March had 12 main demands including the criminalisation of transphobic hate speech and its implementation, the demand for a 0.2 per cent quota for transpersons for employment and education institutions and protections of the Transgender Persons Protection of Rights Act 2018 “in its original form” and pass the bill among other demands. Meanwhile, the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan’s Regional Coordinator who was present at the march said: “We are also fighting for this for them and they have reached this stage to demand their rights with a lot of struggle. They have even sacrificed their lives.”
 
Pakistan: Protests stage demonstration on the highway leading to Gwadar Port 
On 20 November, demonstrators blocked a highway leading to the Gwadar port in protests against the government failing to fulfil their demands before the 20 November deadline. The demonstrators included fishermen, students and labourers led by Gwadar Haq Do Tehreek’s chief Maulana Hidayatur Rahman. They demanded the curbing of illegal fishing by trawlers in Balochistan’s maritime boundary, maximum concessions in border trade with Iran, and ending narcotics in the area. The protests have entered their 25th day after a series of sit-ins. The protests began on 27 October as demonstrators accused the governments of retracting their promises to cater to their demands.
 
Afghanistan: 46 per cent of the USD two billion request has been pledged by donors, says UNICEF
On 20 November, Tolo News reported that the United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF) said that in its appeal for USD two billion for Afghanistan’s humanitarian operations in 2022, around 46 per cent has been pledged by donor countries for the fund. UNICEF in a report raised concerns over the humanitarian, climate and economic challenges in Afghanistan stating: “24.4 million people in need of humanitarian assistance. 13.1 million children in need of humanitarian assistance. 1.1 million severely acutely malnourished children under the age of five years expected to need SAM treatment.”
 
Nepal: Increased inflation and unemployment pushing Nepali youth to look for foreign jobs
On 21 November, the Kathmandu Post reported that a large number of people are leaving Nepal for foreign jobs and are “desperate” to flee the country due to financial restraints and growing inflation rates. It said that the fiscal year 2021-2022 saw nearly two thousand people leaving Nepal for foreign employment every day, with 76,000 labour permits being issued from August to September. The rising rates of unemployment and inflation have left the country in a stalemate, wherein the Nepal Rastra Bank reports a price rise of 8.4 per cent in September from 3.49 per cent in the previous year.
 
Bangladesh: Inmates convicted for the killing of a writer flee the city
On 21 November, Bangladesh’s Home Minister, Asaduzzaman Khan said that two men on death row in Dhaka for the killings of an author and his publisher escaped in transit to the hearing in the city. He mentioned that the men were “thought” to be supporters of the Ansarullah Bangla Team, and asked the officials to issue a red alert at the city’s borders. The prisoners were among those convicted for the murders of the Bangladeshi-American writer, Avijit Roy and his publisher, and were “escorted” by men on motorcycles who attacked the police officers bringing them to the court. The police said that an investigation to identify the men is underway.
 
Sri Lanka: CID arrests a broker regarding sex trafficking to Oman
On 19 November, a 40-year-old man was arrested upon his return from Dubai as the main suspect in  trafficking Sri Lankan women to Oman.  Sri Lanka’s Criminal Investigations Department revealed that traffickers took  the women on visit visas and auctioned them to the highest bidder for sex. It  also revealed that an officer at the Safe House operated by the Sri Lankan Embassy in Oman was also sexually abusing Sri Lankan women. Sri Lanka’s Prime Minister, Dinesh Gunawardena, said that strict actions will be taken against anyone who is involved in this case. The suspect arrested was a middleman in a human trafficking ring and the leader is at large. The Sri Lankan embassy has rescued 90 women and arrested five people
 
Central Asia, Middle East, and Africa
Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan: Parliaments ratify border deal amid protests
On 18 November, the Uzbek Senate approved agreements with Kyrgyzstan on border demarcation and jointly managing the Kempir-Abad water reservoir. Kyrgyzstan’s parliament also ratified the border agreements amid protests over the deal. Previously, the two foreign ministers had signed an agreement in which Kyrgyzstan would officially cede the 4,485 hectares containing the Kempir-Abad reservoir, in exchange for over 19,000 hectares located elsewhere and the joint management of the reservoir. This deal has been met with criticism over the land swap as activists in Kyrgyzstan claimed that Uzbekistan could continue using the dam’s water, but the reservoir’s land should remain within their border. However, the government has assured the people that the reservoir would be jointly managed.
 
Azerbaijan-Armenia: Baku, Yerevan accuse each other of cross-border shelling; Nagorno-Karabakh’s de facto leadership open to mediated talks
On 21 November, Armenia’s Defense Ministry claimed that Azerbaijan’s armed forces fired shots in their positions located along the eastern part of the shared border. On the same day, Azerbaijan’s Defense Minister accused Armenia of shelling in the direction of Astaf village of Dashkesan District and Kokhanabi of Tovuz District, both located in the eastern part of the shared border. Meanwhile, the de facto leadership of ethnic Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh stated that it was ready to negotiate with Azerbaijan under an international format with the participation of mediators. This statement came in response to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s statement that Baku was ready to talk to Armenians living in Nagorno-Karabakh, considering the issue as an internal affair. In response, the official said: “What Aliyev suggests is nothing but an ultimate surrender for us in which an aboriginal group who have realized their 'guilt' will show repentance and beg Mother Azerbaijan to forgive them and allow them to live in the Azerbaijani land.”
 
Syria: Air strikes by Turkey and Israel
On 20 November, the Turkish defence ministry said that it launched air strikes in Syria’s northern regions controlled by Kurdish forces. The strikes targeted the Kurdistan’s Workers’ Party (PKK) and Syrian People’s Protection Units (YPG). Turkey accuses PKK for the recent bomb blast in Istanbul. The defence ministry justified the strikes claiming the right to self-defence under article 51 of the UN Charter. On 19 November, Israel launched air strikes on Syria, targeting military posts in central and coastal Syria. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said that the attacks aimed at the pro-Iranian groups in Homs and Hama provinces in Syria, and also targeted an air defence battery in Latakia province.
 
Iran: Armed forces attack Iraqi Kurdish region
On 21 November, Iran’s armed forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), attacked northern Iraq’s Kurdish regions, targeting positions held by Komala and Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan. Iraq considers these groups as “terrorist” organizations and hold them responsible for the anti-government protests in Iran, following Mahsa Amini’s death in custody. US Central Command (US CENTCOM) condemned the attacks and said  that such actions “jeopardize the hard-fought security and stability of Iraq and the Middle East”.
 
Burkina Faso: French embassy requests protection after violent protests
On 21 November, the French embassy requested the Burkinabe government for increased protection after violent anti-French protests on 18 November. The protests, held in front of the French embassy and military base, demanded the exit of French soldiers. A French embassy letter said: "The events suffered in October and November are susceptible to be repeated in the coming days, if nothing is done." Burkina Faso's chief of staff of the national gendarmerie said that the security officers outside the embassy were not equipped to handle the protest and that they waited for several hours for orders from authorities for reinforcement.
 
Nigeria: At least 130 people kidnapped by gunmen
On 22 November, BBC reported that at least 130 people were kidnapped by gunmen in Nigeria's north-western state of Zamfara. The state's information commissioner said that the gunmen on motorcycles raided two regions and abducted women, children and the elderly. He added that the gunmen were using the victims as "human shields" after "heavy bombardments" targeting their hideouts. However, separate reports said that the people abducted were farm workers who were working during the harvest season.
 
Mali: French-supported NGOs ordered to cease activities
On 21 November, the military government ordered non-governmental organisations, supported or funded by France, to stop their activities with immediate effect. The development comes a week after France halted development aid to Mali. The Malian government said the French move “intended to deceive and manipulate” public opinion for “destabilizing and isolating Mali.” The government also said that the French assistance was “dehumanizing aid used as a means of blackmailing rulers and actively supporting terrorist groups operating on Malian soil.”
 
Europe and the Americas
France and UK: Migrant patrol deal to reduce illegal migration in the English Channel
On 14 November, French Interior Minister Gerald Darmanin and UK’s Interior Minister Sella Braverman signed an agreement to tackle illegal migration across the English Channel. The agreement says that the UK will pay France EUR 72.2 million to increase the number of security personnel at the northern beaches by 40 per cent or approximately 350 personnel. It  also underlines the use of human and technological resources for better efficiency in monitoring, detecting and intercepting boats on the French coasts. Additionally, the deal provides for the collection and implementation of information gathered from the migrants to take down smuggling networks and deter crossings.
 
Finland: Ministry adopts resolution to renew counter-terrorism strategy
On 17 November, Finland’s Ministry of the Interior adopted a resolution on the National Counter-Terrorism Strategy for 2022–2025, reinforcing the existing cooperation model. According to the Finnish Security and Intelligence Service’s assessment, Finland position stands unchanged since 2017, at the “Second level, or ‘elevated’, on the four-tier scale.” The Strategy outlines Finland’s counter terrorism activities, where it aims at global cooperation and within the EU. It involves “prevention of the violent radicalisation,” committed to NATO’s frame work in counter terrorism, and extremism.
 
Russia-Ukraine: Missile strikes target Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
On 19 November, TASS reported that Ukraine attacked the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant for the first time since September. Twelve missile strikes, reported inside the powerplant, targeting the cooling system, spent nuclear fuel storage and checkpoint two. No casualties were reported. However, shelling resulting in nuclear contamination was forewarned. Director General of IAEA Rafael Mariano Grossi terming the strikes, "powerful explosions," confirmed that it did not provoke threat to the nuclear security.
 
Mexico: Over 16,000 migrants detained over the past four days
On 21 November, Mexico’s National Institute of Migration (INM) reported that nearly 16,096 migrants were detained in four days by Mexican authorities. Migrants from 46 countries were detained in 22 states from 17 November to 20 November amid an influx of migrants after a US Court ruling on the Title 24 policy. Most migrants were from Central and South America with 4,986 Venezuelans, 2,987 Guatemalans, 1,385 Nicaraguans, 1,311 Hondurans, and 1,285 Ecuadorians.
 
Columbia: First round of peace negotiations begins with ELN
On 21 November, the Colombian government held the first round of peace negotiations with the rebel group National Liberation Army (ELN) to bring an end to a six-decade war. The two parties met in Caracas, Venezuela where both expressed the need for peace for the growth of Columbia. The negotiations will continue in Cuba and Norway to end the decades-long conflict. The ELN and criminal gangs in Columbia are engaging in a 60-year conflict which has killed 450,00 people and left many more injured.
 
Haiti: Canada issues fresh sanctions targeting financiers of gang violence
On 20 November, Canada sanctioned Haiti’s former President Michel Martelly and former Prime Ministers Laurent Lamothe and Jean Henry Ceant. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated: "These latest sanctions target a former president of Haiti and two former prime ministers of Haiti suspected of protecting and enabling the illegal activities of armed criminal gangs." Lamothe called the sanctions “absurd” and added that he has been an advocate for foreign intervention to help counter the gangs. 
 
Ecuador: 10 killed in Quito prison due to prison violence
On 19 November, 10 people were killed in the Quito prison as violence broke out after the transfer of two gang leaders. The two gang leaders ‘Bermudez’ from the Los Lobos gang and ‘Anchundia’ from the R7 gang, the alleged perpetrators of recent prison violence in Quito and Santo Domingo respectively, were moved to a high-security prison. The transfer is a part of the Ecuadorian government’s strategy to combat growing gang violence in prisons.
 
Cuba: Migrant boat capsized near Florida coast
On 20 November, US Coast Guard rescued nine migrants from a boat that capsized off Florida’s Little Torch Key. The boat which set off with 19 migrants from Cuba capsized due to strong winds and survivors reported that four people had drowned immediately. The US Coast Guard has recovered one body and has launched search parties for others.  


About the authors
Rashmi Ramesh is a Doctoral Scholar at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS. Abigail Miriam Fernandez, Apoorva Sudhakar, Avishka Ashok and Padmashree Anandhan are Project Associates at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, NIAS. Anu Maria Joseph, Joel Jacob, and Sai Pranav are Research Assistants at NIAS. Madhura Mahesh, Bhoomika Sesharaj, Sethuraman N, and Farhan Hussain are Research Interns at NIAS.


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Akshath Kaimal

The US-Iran War, Week Eight:
A Fragile Ceasefire, Attempts to Control Hormuz and the Stalled Talks in Islamabad
April 2026 | CWA # 2072

Anu Maria Joseph

Three Years of War in Sudan
Prolonged Stalemate, Humanitarian Cost, External Interventions and Regional Fallouts
April 2026 | CWA # 2069

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Expanding Drone Warfare, Russia's Strategic Patience and Ukraine's Diplomatic Outreach
April 2026 | CWA # 2068

Femy Francis

China-Japan Tensions
Escalating Defence Posturing and Economic Decoupling
April 2026 | CWA # 2067

Anu Maria Joseph

Conflicts in Africa
Continuing Conflicts in Sudan, South Sudan and DR Congo, Security issues in Nigeria, and Political Instability in Madagascar
April 2026 | CWA # 2066

Akshath Kaimal

The Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Recurrent Clashes, Defiant Taliban, Contesting Narratives and Emerging Chinas Role
April 2026 | CWA # 2065

Lakshmi Venugopal Menon

The Middle East (JanMar 2026):
The US-Iran War, Israel-Hamas Conflict and their interconnected fallouts
April 2026 | CWA # 2064

Anwesha Ghosh

Afghanistan (JanMar 2026):
Gender Repression, Leadership Rifts, Regional Realignments and Clashes with Pakistan
April 2026 | CWA # 2063

Ramya B

Russia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Assertive Military Posture, Attempts for an Economic Turnaround and Search for Partners
April 2026 | CWA # 2062

Himani Pant

Europe (Jan-Mar 2026)
Trade diversification & FTAs, Increased defence spending, Tightening irregular migration and Economic slowdown
April 2026 | CWA # 2061

S Shaji

Africa (Jan-Mar 2026)
Elections, Civil Wars, Militancy and Peace Initiatives
April 2026 | CWA # 2059

Adarsh Vijay

India and the World(Jan-Mar 2026)
Maintaining Strategic Autonomy, Balancing the US relations and Resetting the China ties
April 2026 | CWA # 2058

Nishchal N Pandey & Mahesh Raj Bhatta

Nepal (Jan-Mar 2026)
Political Upheaval, Generational Change and Economic Uncertainty
April 2026 | CWA # 2057

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar (Jan-Mar 2026)
An Illegitimate Regimes Consolidation Game
April 2026 | CWA # 2056

Ashik J Bonofer

Southeast Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Deteriorating situation in Myanmar, Philippines as the ASEAN Chair, New government in Thailand, and Economic & Environmental challenges
April 2026 | CWA # 2055

Haans J Freddy

East Asia (Jan-Mar 2026)
Chinas military operations near Taiwan, Japan-China tensions and South Koreas security challenges
April 2026 | CWA # 2054

Amrita Jash

Chinas External Landscape (Jan-Mar 2026):
Regional assertion, Pragmatic recalibration with the West and Avoiding military entanglement in the Middle East
April 2026 | CWA # 2052

Shreya Upadhyay

The United States(Jan-Mar2026)
Tariffs, Ukraine, Iran and Operationalization of Trumps World Order
March 2026 | CWA # 2039

Femy Francis

Trump-Xi Meeting
Why did Trump reschedule it? What does that mean?
March 2026 | CWA # 2035

Akshath Kaimal

Pakistan-Afghanistan Conflict
Broken ceasefire, Expanding military strikes and Worsening humanitarian situation
March 2026 | CWA # 2033

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal after elections:
Five major challenges for the new government
March 2026 | CWA # 2024

Lekshmi MK

The UN and the Iran-US War
UNSC Resolution 2817 between Clear and Unified Message and Manifest Injustice
March 2026 | CWA # 2023

Femy Francis

Chinas Two Sessions 2026
New Five-Year Plan, Ethnic Unity Law, and an Enhanced Defence Budget
March 2026 | CWA # 2019

Akshath Kaimal

Rising Violence in Nigeria
Limited State Capacity, Multiple Actors, and a Complex Security Environment
March 2026 | CWA # 2012

Padmashree Anandhan

The War in Ukraine
Long-range strikes, Defence adaptation and the EUs energy dependence
March 2026 | CWA # 2010

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal Elections 2026
The Rise of the New and the Fall of the Old
March 2026 | CWA # 2009

Sreemaya Nair

Nepal Elections 2026
Rise of a new leadership and Reset in political landscape
March 2026 | CWA # 2004

Akshath Kaimal

The Forgotten South Sudan Conflict
Instability returns, with a fragile peace agreement, uptick in violence and limited international engagement
March 2026 | CWA # 2003

Yesasvi Koganti

PM Modis Visit to Israel
From bilateral ties to a special strategic partnership
February 2026 | CWA # 1998

Anu Maria Joseph

Instability in Sudan
Response to the genocide call and the threats of a regional spillover
February 2026 | CWA # 1985

Abhimanyu Solanki

Basant in Pakistan
The return of Basant, and what it signifies
February 2026 | CWA # 1977

Anu Maria Joseph

Violence in Nigeria
US military deployment amidst worsening insurgency
February 2026 | CWA # 1976

Lekshmi MK

The War in Ukraine
The Geneva Talks and Growing Negotiation Asymmetry
December 2025 | CWA # 1971

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan Budget 2025-26
Legislating stabilisation under IMF discipline and coalition constraints
December 2025 | CWA # 1970

Aparna A Nair

Pakistan & China
Ten Years of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)
November 2025 | CWA # 1968

Vani Vyshnavi Jupudi

Pakistan and the US
A New opening, or another cycle?
February 2026 | CWA # 1959

Yesasvi Koganti

UK and China
PM Keir Starmers visit and the Recalibration of Economic, Strategic, and Domestic ties
January 2026 | CWA # 1946

R Preetha

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
June 2025 | CWA # 1709

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #284-285
Cambodia-Thailand Border Tensions, Protests in the US, and the Indigenous Māori question in New Zealand
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
May 2025 | CWA # 1672

D Suba Chandran

India and Pakistan:
De-escalation and the “New Normal”
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan