Fukushima: A Decade after

Fukushima: A Decade after
The future of nuclear energy looks bleak

Lokendra Sharma
21 July 2021
Photo Source: JapanTimes

The likely decline of nuclear energy will go hand in hand with the advent of renewables, with solar and wind power being the prime candidates for replacing carbon-emitting coal.

On 11 March 2021, a commemorative ceremony was held in Tokyo, Japan, to mark the ten years of the Tōhoku earthquake and tsunami, which killed close to 18,000 people. However, despite the human tragedy, what has struck with global public consciousness, is the Fukushima nuclear disaster, which was triggered by the same tsunami.   

The Fukushima disaster, the worst such since Chernobyl in 1986, changed the entire trajectory of nuclear energy. It not only shook Japan, but also reinforced the fears of nuclear sceptics worldwide, contributing to the decline of nuclear energy in the decade since the disaster. 

At Fukushima’s 10th anniversary, when rapid changes are occurring in the global energy sector, thanks to the imperative of climate change, it is pertinent to ask whether the decline of nuclear energy seen in the last decade is a temporary one (an interregnum) or whether it is a long term decline. And as both renewables and nuclear power are potential candidates in the race to replace highly polluting coal-based power plants, will the decline in nuclear power pave the way for the dawn of renewables? 

Following Fuksuhma, will the future of nuclear energy remain a dream, never to be realised? 

I
Cracks in the nuclear dream: Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima

After it was discovered that self-sustaining chain reactions of nuclear fission could be a source of massive energy in the late 1930s, nuclear energy was thought of as a promising source for electricity generation. And, in consonance with this dream, nuclear power saw rapid expansion from the 1950s onwards. However, the nuclear dream suffered various hiccups, especially in the aftermath of nuclear accidents, which rekindled anti-nuclear protests. In the history of nuclear power, three such accidents stand out: Three Mile Island (1979), Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011). 

First, the Three Mile Island (TMI) accident. On 28 March 1979, the reactor core of unit 2 of the TMI nuclear power plant (near Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, the US) suffered a partial meltdown due to a technical malfunction in the reactor cooling system. Even as the reactor core got damaged due to the meltdown, and there was some leakage of radioactive gases in days following the accident, there were limited adverse health impacts on the residents [1].  

Second, the Chernobyl accident. The most disastrous accident in nuclear history happened at Chernobyl nuclear power plant in the Soviet Union (present-day Ukraine). On 26 April 1986, due to a series of human and technical errors, there was a core meltdown in Unit 4 of the plant, followed by explosions and fire. Two plant workers were killed due to explosions, while 28 others died in subsequent weeks due to Acute Radiation Syndrome. About 5000 people developed thyroid cancer (with 15 fatalities), and 350,000 people were evacuated from the town of Pripyat and other surrounding areas [2].  

Third, and the most recent one, the Fukushima disaster. On 11 March 2011, a massive magnitude nine earthquake struck off the east coast of Japan, generating a tsunami that killed 18,000 people. This tsunami (17 metres high) slammed into the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant operated by Tepco, causing core meltdowns in three (units 1,2 and 3) of the six reactors as the power supply and cooling system failed. In addition, explosions happened in units 1, 3 and 4 due to hydrogen accumulation, releasing huge amounts of radioactivity into the atmosphere. This was the worst nuclear disaster since Chernobyl in 1986 and has been rated as Level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) on par with the latter. In its aftermath, hundreds of thousands were evacuated in the 20-kilometre exclusion zone [3]. 

The Fukushima accident, however, is different from both the TMI and Chernobyl one. The TMI one was a relatively small-scale accident with only a partial meltdown of the reactor. And even though the Chernobyl one was far more disastrous and became part of Cold War politics, global know-how about the accident was limited thanks to the Soviet propaganda machine. The Fukushima disaster, which was as severe as the Chernobyl one (except there were no casualties), unfolded in front of the media. Thanks to the ICT revolution, reached all nooks and corners of the world. It reinforced fears of nuclear energy and shaped the perceptions about the dangers of nuclear accidents. 

II
Fallouts of Fukushima

The fallouts of the Fukushima accident can be looked at from two levels - national (Japan) and global level. At the national level, Japan has witnessed multi-faceted fallouts. Japan’s large nuclear power industry, which supplied one-third of electricity in the country pre-disaster, was greatly affected. In Fukushima’s aftermath, operations were suspended in 46 of the country’s 50 plus nuclear plants. As of today, nuclear power is less than 10 per cent in the electricity mix, with only nine reactors resuming operations. The post-disaster cleaning up of the Fukushima plant has been a challenging and complex undertaking, especially in the main reactor buildings where the core meltdown happened. The cleaning operations are still ongoing and can continue for the next 30 years or beyond [4]. The costs, however, have only spiked; Japan’s government estimated back in 2016 the cost to be around USD 200 billion [5]. 

The human and environmental fallout has been significant. Due to the hydrogen explosions at the power plant, a huge amount of radiation was released into the atmosphere. Radiation has also escaped through the water seeping into the ocean. Moreover, even after a decade, close to 40,000 people remain displaced [6]. 

Not just Japan, but the nuclear industry faced a downturn globally as strong anti-nuclear sentiment spread accompanied by numerous protests across the world. Many countries, especially in Europe, abandoned their nuclear energy plans. Germany announced a few months after the disaster to phase out its nuclear power plants by 2022; Belgium decided to phase out nuclear by 2025; Italy’s plan to revive nuclear energy in the country failed; Spain and Switzerland decided to not build any new nuclear plants. Sixty-five reactors have either shut down or have not got operational life extension, between 2011 and 2020, according to the IAEA. This resulted in a loss of 48 GWe nuclear capacity globally [7]. 

III
Nuclear versus renewables debate

Will this declining trend continue for nuclear power? And if so, which energy source will take the position of nuclear? Will renewables fill the cracks in the nuclear dream? Before answering these questions, it is useful to situate nuclear energy in the debate of climate change and to highlight the respective advantages (and disadvantages) of nuclear and renewables, both of which are potential candidates for displacing carbon-emitting coal from the global energy basket. 

With multiple conferences, agreements (including the Paris climate deal of 2015) and civil society protests over the last three decades, climate change has claimed the top spot in issues of global concern. And as the international community attempts to address this issue with mitigative and adaptive measures, cutting down on emissions has become the primary focus. 

Coal-based power generation contributes the most to emissions in the electricity sector globally. In order to reduce carbon footprint, therefore, countries are clamping down on coal and looking for its alternatives. And, in this race for alternative, there are two potential candidates: nuclear and renewables. Both have their sets of advantages and disadvantages. 

First, nuclear energy. Its biggest advantage is that it offers reliable baseload power generation with minimum emissions. However, it has several issues - radiation, nuclear accidents, waste disposal and most importantly, proliferation risks. The technologies involved in nuclear power generation are dual-use; they can be used to make nuclear weapons too. And that, from a disarmament perspective, makes the world a less safe place.

Second, renewables, which consist of various sources, mainly solar and wind. Their biggest advantage is that they are the clean and safe sources of unlimited energy (hence the word renewable). Unlike nuclear, which is still dependent on the supplies of limited uranium reserves, solar and wind draw from sunlight and blowing wind, which is potentially unending. Their biggest drawback, however, is that they are intermittent sources of power supply; they cannot be relied upon to supply baseload power for any economy. For example, a solar plant only generates electricity when it is sunny, and a wind plant only generates electricity when winds are blowing beyond some threshold speed. Interrelated is the grid integration challenges that solar and wind pose. As solar and wind only generate electricity intermittently, and as there is a lack of any efficient industrial-scale battery storage technology, renewables are given preference in the grid whenever they generate electricity. This poses challenges for the baseload suppliers of electricity, coal and nuclear plants, to rapidly ramp down and ramp up their power generation, incurring losses in the process. Moreover, these external costs associated with renewables are not factored into the per unit electricity cost, which artificially remains low. Other challenges include large land requirements and low plant load factors [8]. 

Nevertheless, renewables score better in the ‘clean energy versus safe energy debate’, because they are thought to be clean as well as safe compared to nuclear which is clean but not safe. However, this argument does not stand at a closer examination; renewables are not entirely clean, and nuclear is not entirely unsafe. Making solar panels and wind turbines is very resource-intensive. Photovoltaic (PV) solar systems, in particular, do not cause pollution of significance during their operational lifetime; they do have a considerable carbon footprint (and other environmental fallouts, including water pollution) during their manufacturing and installation process [9]. The same, however, is also true of nuclear plants, as their establishment is also resource-intensive.  

The issues of radiation and accidents have often been cited to dismiss nuclear energy as unsafe. But, background radiation in the environment is much more than that resulting from any nuclear power plant [10]. In fact, nuclear energy prevents more deaths than it is a cause for. A study found that “global nuclear power has prevented an average of 1.84 million air pollution-related deaths” between 1971 and 2009 [11]. Even in the Fukushima disaster, only a single death (of a Fukushima worker, due to radiation exposure) could be attributed to the disaster and its fallouts (while not discounting that there could possibly be unaccounted fatalities and adverse health impacts) [12]. In fact, nuclear power plants have elaborate safety measures in place, with numerous triple redundancies. 

Given all these factors, nuclear is better suited to replace coal as a baseload energy supplier provided enough uranium metal could be salvaged from the natural deposits globally. The only significant problem that would arise, as highlighted before, is the proliferation risk. The spread of nuclear energy globally, both vertical and horizontal, does not augur well for a disarmed world given its dual-use nature.

IV
The dawn of renewables

The climate change imperative is such that, ideally, the international community cannot afford an either-or choice. Countries need to act fast to replace coal power plants with all available (and relatively) clean sources of energy, be it nuclear or renewables. Countries need to have a diversified energy basket, with the exact share of different sources being decided by national circumstances (such as resources availability, geography and the economics of power production). 

But, despite the suitability of such a mixed approach, the winners in the renewables-nuclear race are going to be decided by other factors, including current trends in the energy sector set in motion by the Fukushima disaster and technological advances in the renewable sector. There are three factors that will propel the dawn of renewables and the descension of nuclear energy.

First, the global public opinion, as highlighted before, remains hostile to nuclear power generation. In fact, local communities have mounted resistance at the sites of nuclear power plants, delaying their establishment and increasing associated costs. At the same time, public opinion is very favourable to renewable energy sources. 

Second, rapid innovations happening in the renewable sector, which have the potential of addressing the drawbacks associated with renewable power sources. This includes higher efficiency of solar cells and wind turbines and better battery storage technology. Solutions have also been advanced to meet the intermittency problem of renewables. Solar and wind work well when they are scattered across a landmass, say a wider region and are interconnected through a larger grid. 

Third, countries are betting big on renewables. Many countries, especially in Europe, have announced an ambitious green energy push. The global trend for the energy sector, post-Fukushima, shows a clear decline of nuclear energy and the rise of renewables. This trend would be difficult to reverse given the two factors pointed out above. 

 

Conclusion

In terms of the future of nuclear energy, descension is more likely than an interregnum. The descension of nuclear energy will go hand in hand with the dawn of renewable one, with solar and wind power being the prime candidates for replacing carbon-emitting coal. 

Even as the future of nuclear energy is bleak at the global level, some countries, especially India and China, will continue to have ambitious nuclear power programmes. This is due to their peculiar developmental needs and resource scarcity. India in particular has a three-stage programme which ultimately seeks to exploit thorium reserves, which by one estimate, are enough to meet India’s energy needs for next century and beyond [13]. However, it is unlikely India will be able to scale up its nuclear programme rapidly given the perennial delays and complex technical challenges in utilizing thorium. 

Notwithstanding the factors propelling the march of renewables, it is possible that the decline of nuclear can be stemmed, and even reversed into a stellar rise, if thorium utilization becomes scalable and fusion technology becomes economic and feasible. Unless that happens, this century will be defined by renewables, the way last century was defined by coal and oil. 

References

[1] “Three Mile Island Accident”, World Nuclear Association, March 2020, available at:https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/three-mile-island-accident.aspx (last accessed on 12 April 2021)

[2] “Chernobyl Accident 1986”, World Nuclear Association, April 2020, available at: https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/chernobyl-accident.aspx (last accessed on 13 April 2021)

[3] “Fukushima Daiichi Accident”, World Nuclear Association, March 2021, available at:https://www.world-nuclear.org/information-library/safety-and-security/safety-of-plants/fukushima-daiichi-accident.aspx (last accessed on 13 April 2021)

[4] Dennis Normile, “Why cleaning up Fukushima’s damaged reactors will take another 30 years”, Science Magazine, 4 March 2021, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abh3449 

[5] Mayumi Negishi, “Japan Raises Estimate for 2011 Nuclear Accident to $200 Billion”, Wall Street Journal, 9 December 2016, available at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/japan-raises-estimate-for-2011-nuclear-accident-to-200-billion-1481270326 (last accessed on 14 April 2021)

[6] Arata Yamamoto and Adela Suliman, “Fukushima: Japan mourns victims of earthquake and nuclear disaster 10 years on”, NBC News, 11 March 2021, available at:https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/fukushima-japan-mourns-victims-earthquake-nuclear-disaster-ten-years-n1260596  (last accessed on 14 April 2021)

[7] Henri Paillere and Jeffrey Donovan, “Nuclear Power 10 Years After Fukushima: The Long Road Back”, IAEA, 11 March 2021, available at: https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/nuclear-power-10-years-after-fukushima-the-long-road-back  (last accessed on 14 April 2021)

[8] Saurav Jha, The Upside Down Book of Nuclear Power (HarperCollins, 2010)

[9] Muhammad Tawalbeh, AmaniAl-Othman, Feras Kafiah, Emad Abdelsalam, Fares Almomani and Malek Alkasrawie, “Environmental impacts of solar photovoltaic systems: A critical review of recent progress and future outlook”, Science of The Total Environment, Vol 759, No. 143528, 2021, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143528   

[10] Abel J. Gonzalez and Jeanne Anderer, “Radiation versus radiation: Nuclear energy in perspective”, IAEA Bulletin, 1989, pp. 21-31, available at: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/publications/magazines/bulletin/bull31-2/31205642131.pdf 

[11] Pushker A. Kharecha and James E. Hansen, “Prevented mortality and greenhouse gas emissions from historical and projected nuclear power” Environmental science & technology, Vol 47, No 9, 2013, pp. 4889-4895, DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es3051197 

[12] Eli Meixler, “Japan Acknowledges the First Radiation-Linked Death From the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster”, Time, 5 September 2018, available at: https://time.com/5388178/japan-first-fukushima-radiation-death/  (last accessed on 15 April 2021)

[13] “Strategy for Nuclear Energy”, Bhabha Atomic Research Center, available at: http://www.barc.gov.in/about/anushakti_sne.html (last accessed on 15 April 2021) 


Lokendra Sharma is a PhD Scholar at the School of Conflict and Security Studies, National Institute of Advanced Studies (NIAS), Bengaluru. He is currently researching in the field of Technology and International Relations. He is also interested in nuclear issues, disarmament and arms control. Email: lokendra.sharma279@gmail.com 


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Preetha Renganarayanan

The Davos Summit 2026
Five Major Takeaways from The World Economic Forum
December 2025 | CWA # 1931

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1924

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025
December 2025 | CWA # 1914

Preetha Renganarayanan

August 2025 | CWA # 1801

R Preetha

28 August 1963
Martin Luther King's "I Have a Dream" speech and the Civil Rights Movement in the US
August 2025 | CWA # 1790

GP Team

The World This Week#323-324
The Trump-Putin meeting & the US-China tariff extension
August 2025 | CWA # 1780

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Trump tariffs:
Weaponization of access to the US economy
August 2025 | CWA # 1779

GP Team

The World This Week#322
US tariffs on India, Brazil and Canada & the EU-US trade deal
August 2025 | CWA # 1778

Lekshmi MK

28 July 1914
Austria-Hungary declares war on Serbia, starting the First World War
July 2025 | CWA # 1770

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

Pakistan-Afghanistan relations:
Why the focus on terrorism, refugees, and Uzbekistan as the third partner?
July 2025 | CWA # 1769

GP Team

The World This Week#321
Indian PM Modi's visit to the Maldives I Elections to the Upper House in Japan
July 2025 | CWA # 1762

Lekshmi MK

Ocean Darkening: 
What is the phenomenon? What are its effects? And who are more vulnerable?
July 2025 | CWA # 1749

R Preetha

Africa as the Hunger Epicenter
Of the 13 Global Hunger Hotspots, 8 are in Africa: Five reasons why
July 2025 | CWA # 1748

GP Team

The World This Week #318
PM Modi’s Visit to Trinidad and Tobago & Ghana, One big beautiful bill, and Quad Foreign Ministers Meeting
July 2025 | CWA # 1744

Chittrothu Vaihali

EU-Canada Summit 2025
What is security and defence partnership all about?
July 2025 | CWA # 1742

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly # 287-88
The 12 Day War and the Congo-Rwanda Peace Deal
July 2025 | CWA # 1738

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Thailand and Cambodia
What was the phone call between PM Shinawatra and President of Senate Hun Sen? What is the border dispute between the two? Why has this become an issue?
June 2025 | CWA # 1735

Padmashree Anandhan

NATO Summit 2025:
Trump making Europe great again
June 2025 | CWA # 1734

GP Team

The World This Week #317
NATO Summit 2025 and Russia-Mali bilateral agreements
June 2025 | CWA # 1733

Ananya Dinesh

China and the Pacific Islands 
What was the recent China-PIC joint statement about? What it says, and what it means?
June 2025 | CWA # 1728

M Kejia

G7 Summit 2025:
The Focus on the Middle East and Trade negotiations
June 2025 | CWA # 1726

GP Team

The World This Week #316
China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan, and the G7 Summit in Canada
June 2025 | CWA # 1725

Brighty Ann Sarah, R Preetha, Santhiya M, Aparna A Nair & M Kejia

Operation Midnight Hammer: US bombs three nuclear sites in Iran
What were the three Iranian nuclear sites that were targeted? What are the B2 Bombers and Bunker Buster Bombs? What do these attacks mean? What Next?
June 2025 | CWA # 1724

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #286
The Spiralling Israel-Iran Crisis, and the Dangerous Hunger Hotspots
June 2025 | CWA # 1721

Rizwana Banu S and Santhiya M

Who are the Afrikaners?
Why is Trump interested in the Afrikaner question in South Africa?
June 2025 | CWA # 1720

Lekshmi MK

New WMO Report on Arctic Warming
What are the social, economic and environmental implications of Arctic warming
June 2025 | CWA # 1719

J Yamini  

China’s EV Surge
What contributes to the rise of BYD
June 2025 | CWA # 1717

J Yamini

Gender Violence in Pakistan:
What are the larger issues in the Noor Mukadam case?
June 2025 | CWA # 1715

Femy Francis

The US-China:
On Tariffs, Rare Earths and Visas
June 2025 | CWA # 1713

GP Team

The World This Week #315
The UN Ocean Conference in France and the US-China Meeting in London
June 2025 | CWA # 1709

IPRI Team

Conflict Weekly #284-285
Cambodia-Thailand Border Tensions, Protests in the US, and the Indigenous Māori question in New Zealand
June 2025 | CWA # 1705

GP Team

The World This Week #314
Elections in South Korea and Poland I China and the Pacific Island Countries I Bangladesh Election Announcement 2026
June 2025 | CWA # 1700

R Preetha

Ethiopia bans the TPLF
What does the TPLF ban mean for the Pretoria agreement? What next for Ethiopia?
June 2025 | CWA # 1694

Aashish Ganeshan

The US:
Harvard vs Trump Administration
June 2025 | CWA # 1691

GP Team

The World This Week #313
China-ASEAN-GCC Summit I President Macron's visit to South East Asia I Trump Vs Harvard
May 2025 | CWA # 1690

GP Team

The World This Week #312
Elections in Romania, Portugal & Poland I UK-EU Summit
May 2025 | CWA # 1689

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine
Continuing Russia’s Aerial Attacks, despite exchange of prisoners
May 2025 | CWA # 1688

Ayan Datta

Gaza
The Humanitarian Crisis and Israel’s Renewed Offensive
May 2025 | CWA # 1685

Aparna A Nair

UK-EU Summit:
First step towards a reset
May 2025 | CWA # 1683

Aashish Ganeshan

Elections in Portugal:
The Rise of Chega Party and the Search for Political Stability
May 2025 | CWA # 1679

Aashish Ganeshan

US in the Middle Easr
Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and UAE
May 2025 | CWA # 1678

Gauri Gupta

China in Latin America
China-CELAC forum: Strengthening ties with Latin America and Caribbean
May 2025 | CWA # 1677

GP Team

The World This Week #310-311
China in Latin America and the Carribbean I Trump's Middle East Visit I Denmark as the new Arctic Chair
May 2025 | CWA # 1675

Lekshmi MK

Turkey:
PKK disbands after 40 years of armed insurgency
May 2025 | CWA # 1673

Padmashree Anandhan

Ukraine:
The Discussion in Turkiye and the Elusive Ceasefire
May 2025 | CWA # 1672

D Suba Chandran

India and Pakistan:
De-escalation and the “New Normal”
May 2025 | CWA # 1671

Abhiruchi Chowdhury

US, Ukraine and Russia:
Air attacks amidst a Minerals deal and Ceasefire Proposals
May 2025 | CWA # 1670

Fleur Elizabeth Philip

Singapore Elections in 2025:
People’s Action Party (PAP) Wins, Again
May 2025 | CWA # 1667

R Preetha and Brighty Ann Sarah

East Asia:
Tough Tariff Negotiations with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1666

Padmashree Anandhan

The US-Ukraine
The mineral deal with the US
May 2025 | CWA # 1665
Conflict Weekly # 280-81
India-Pakistan De-escalation I Ukraine Discussion in Istanbul I The Battle over Port Sudan I Disbanding of PKK in Turkiye I France-Algeria Diplomatic Tensions
May 2025 | CWA # 1663

R Preetha

Canada Elections 2025:
What do the results convey? What next for Mark Carney?
March 2024 | CWA # 1251

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
February 2024 | CWA # 1226

NIAS Africa Team

Africa This Week
October 2023 | CWA # 1091

Annem Naga Bindhu Madhuri

Issues for Europe
July 2023 | CWA # 1012

Bibhu Prasad Routray

Myanmar continues to burn
December 2022 | CWA # 879

Padmashree Anandhan

The Ukraine War
November 2022 | CWA # 838

Rishma Banerjee

Tracing Europe's droughts
March 2022 | CWA # 705

NIAS Africa Team

In Focus: Libya
December 2021 | CWA # 630

GP Team

Europe in 2021
October 2021 | CWA # 588

Abigail Miriam Fernandez

TLP is back again
August 2021 | CWA # 528

STIR Team

Space Tourism
September 2019 | CWA # 162

Lakshman Chakravarthy N

5G: A Primer
December 2018 | CWA # 71

Mahesh Bhatta

Nepal
December 2018 | CWA # 70

Nasima Khatoon

The Maldives
December 2018 | CWA # 69

Harini Madhusudan

India
December 2018 | CWA # 68

Sourina Bej

Bangladesh
December 2018 | CWA # 67

Seetha Lakshmi Dinesh Iyer

Afghanistan