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CWA # 1550, 9 December 2024
Global Politics Explainer
Political Crisis in France

  Prajwal TV

On 4 December 2024, for the first time in over 60 years, France’s National Assembly ousted Prime Minister Michel Barnier's government through a historic no-confidence vote, after only three months in office, making him the shortest-serving Prime Minister. The motion came after Barnier forced an unpopular budget bill through parliament without a vote. The no-confidence motion passed with 331 votes in the 577-seat National Assembly. This political crisis was a result of a hung parliament following the summer snap elections, leaving no party with a majority and the far right holding significant influence. With no possibility of elections until 2025, France is grappling with a fragile democracy, economic uncertainty, and questions about its leadership under President Macron.

What triggered the No-Confidence Vote?
The no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Michel Barnier was triggered by his decision to invoke special constitutional powers under Article 49(3) to pass a controversial social security financing bill without parliamentary approval. This move united factions across the political spectrum, including the hard-left alliance and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, in opposition. The bill, part of a broader 2024 austerity budget aimed at reducing France’s rapidly growing public debt, proposed €60 billion ($63 billion) in tax increases and spending cuts to bring the fiscal deficit down to 5% by 2025. The no-confidence motion was led by the left-wing alliance, which criticised the government’s budgetary priorities for disproportionately impacting lower-income citizens. The far-right supported the motion, framing their opposition as a defence of national sovereignty against austerity measures allegedly imposed by the European Union. 

How did France reach here?
After the snap parliamentary elections in the summer of 2024, called by President Emmanuel Macron following a series of governance challenges, France found itself with a hung parliament. No party secured a majority, leaving the legislative body fragmented. President Macron’s centrist Renaissance party faced significant losses, while the far-right National Rally and the hard-left alliance gained ground. Michel Barnier, Macron’s fifth prime minister since 2017, was appointed in an attempt to stabilize governance. However, his tenure was marked by contentious policy decisions and mounting opposition. The country faces significant fiscal pressures, with its budget deficit projected to reach 6% of GDP in 2024 and potentially rising to 7% in 2025 without corrective measures. While the European Union urged France to implement fiscal discipline, austerity measures have faced widespread public resistance. The inability of ideologically polarized parties to collaborate has further deepened instability, particularly on key policies such as the budget.

Where do the parties and leaders stand?
The hard-left alliance, which initiated the no-confidence vote, rejects austerity policies and advocates for greater social spending. Their opposition is rooted in a critique of Macron’s neoliberal economic agenda, which they argue exacerbates inequality. Marine Le Pen's National Rally has indicated that it would accept an emergency bill extending the 2024 budget’s tax-and-spend measures into 2025 to ensure temporary financing. However, the party has leveraged the crisis to strengthen its position as a formidable opposition force. Although ideologically opposed to the left, the far-right joined the no-confidence vote to challenge Macron’s leadership and present itself as the defender of French sovereignty. Le Pen framed her support for the no-confidence vote as a stand against the government’s “elitist” policies. President Macron has vowed to remain in office until the end of his term in 2027 and has emphasized the need for France to uphold its constitutional framework. However, Macron’s ability to govern effectively is severely constrained by the fractured parliament, which has made coalition-building exceedingly difficult.

What next for the Parliament?
The immediate challenge for the National Assembly is to support the appointment of a new government and pass critical legislation, including the 2025 budget. With no parliamentary elections permitted until 2025, the assembly must navigate a period of political deadlock over the next 10 months. The left-wing New Popular Front has already stated it will oppose any government that does not include a left-wing leader, while the far-right remains staunchly opposed to Macron’s leadership. François Baroin, a centrist leader, has been mentioned in French media as a potential successor to Barnier. While, President Macron has urged Barnier and his cabinet to stay on as care-taker government till the next Prime Minister is appointed. Without a parliamentary majority and unable to dissolve the National Assembly until mid-2025, France faces a fractured political landscape. The next government must pass legislation on a case-by-case basis, seeking issue-specific support from opposition parties. 

What next for President Macron?
French President Emmanuel Macron is navigating a political crisis following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s government after a historic no-confidence vote. With no parliamentary majority, Macron must urgently appoint a new prime minister capable of uniting a fractured legislature and passing the 2025 budget. His options include reappointing a figure similar to Barnier, like François Baroin or Bruno Retailleau, or selecting a loyal ally such as Sébastien Lecornu. Another option is centrist veteran François Bayrou, who may bridge gaps between factions. However, Macron has ruled out appointing a left-leaning PM like Bernard Cazeneuve or Lucie Castets, fearing it would signal defeat to his opposition. Until June 2025, dissolving parliament is not an option, heightening the risk of prolonged stalemates. Macron has pledged a special finance law to avoid a shutdown and ensure public services continue. His next steps are critical for restoring political stability and economic confidence. 

About the author
Prajwal TV is an undergraduate student of Journalism, International Relations and Peace Studies at St Joseph’s University, Bengaluru

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