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CWA # 1564, 1 January 2025
Global Politics Explainer
Ireland Elections and What's Next?

  Nupur Priya

Ireland general elections took place on 29 November 2024. This election will elect the 34th Dáil (lower house of the Parliament) and the next Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister). Over 3.4 million people were eligible to vote in the Irish elections, the turn-out was 59.7 per cent. The razor-thin margins between the top three political parties have made this election one of the most closely contested races in recent history. These three main contenders are centre-right Fine Gael, a key player in the outgoing government led by Prime Minister Simon Harris; the centrist Fianna Fáil, a ruling coalition partner in the outgoing government; and the left-wing Sinn Fein, the largest opposition party. Ireland has a distinctive voting system, with 43 constituencies voting for electing a 174-seat parliament using proportional representation with a single transferable vote. The election results conferred third place to Fine Gael with 20.8 per cent first preference votes and 38 seats, second place to Sinn Fein with 19 per cent first preference votes and 39 seats, and the winner Fianna Fáil with 21.9 per cent first preference votes and 48 seats. Independents gained 13.2 per cent first preference votes and 16 seats while the social democrats gained 4.8 per cent first preference votes and 11 seats. The Labour Party gained 4.7 per cent first preference votes and 11 seats while the Independent Ireland, a new party, gained 3.6 per cent first preference votes and four seats. The Greens shockingly lost 11 seats this time, which was a part of the coalition government in the last term. 

Why was a snap election called?
A snap election was called for Friday, 29 November, by Prime Minister Simon Harris rather than waiting for the March deadline. At the beginning of this year, the left-wing Sinn Fein’s position appeared very promising, with the polls at 29 per cent. Sinn Fein was dominating as the opposition and capturing significant public support, but by 6 November, their position dropped to 18 per cent. The reason for this downfall is essentially their unclear position on migration; however, a series of scandals added to it. These allegations included misconduct, internal mismanagement and cover-ups. So, instead of working towards the elections, the party was stuck with damage control.

So, the ruling government called for a snap election, hoping to capitalize on two factors: the October budget by Simon Harris which delivered 2.2 billion euros in bonus and Sinn Fein’s collapse. This move was intended to extend Fine Gael’s record 14-year hold on power. But the move backfired as Sinn Fein gained one seat.

What are the major issues in Ireland?
Ireland has an acute housing shortage, which acted as one of the major issues that dominated the election. The cost of living is a huge concern for the voters, but recently, the former government recognized this issue and launched a 10.5 billion euros giveaway budget to ease the situation. 61 per cent of Irish voters recognized housing as one of the top two problems in the country suffering from high rents.

Healthcare is the other issue for Irish citizens due to low funding in the sector. A recent challenge of immigration in Ireland emerged where, for years, emigration has been prevalent. 100,000 Ukrainians, displaced by war, and thousands of other immigrants fleeing West Asia and Africa have arrived in Ireland. Asylum to these immigrants is a hot topic for elections due to violent protests demanding firm control against immigration. 

The prospect of reunification of Ireland with Northern Ireland is another issue in the country with varying opinions of political parties. Sinn Fein strongly advocated for reunification and a referendum for this by 2030.

Who could be the next Taoiseach?
The largest party with the most seats is Fianna Fáil, with 21.9 per cent. Therefore, most probably, the leader of Fianna Fáil, Micheal Martin will be the prime minister for the second time. Currently, the position is held by Fine Gael’s leader Simon Harris. The coalition agreement in 2020 between Fine Gael and Fianna Fail provided for rotating the position of Taoiseach, so Micheal Martin was Prime Minister for the first two and a half years, and then he moved on to become the foreign minister and Tánaiste (deputy prime minister). It is possible that the parties again agree on such terms because none of them have a majority. 

Which parties could form a coalition?
The total number required for the majority is 88. A deal might be sought for a coalition with a third party by Fianna Fail and Fine Gael. Sinn Fein’s leader, Mary Lou McDonald, is seeking a left-wing alliance with other leaders, but it will not be enough to make a majority in the Dáil. Her hopes of becoming Ireland’s first female Prime Minister took a jolt when her nomination received 44 votes. 110 votes were against her nomination to become the Taoiseach. The last term of the Dail saw a coalition of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Green Party to form a government. But this time, the performance of the Green Party was rather disappointing as it lost eleven seats and remained with just one at three per cent.

Independents play a prominent role in Irish Politics, at times, being appointed even as ministers. Verona Murphy, an independent member of parliament, has been elected as the new speaker of the lower house. Coalition manoeuvrings are likely to be influenced by  independent candidates. However, the Fianna Fáil leader, Micheal Martin, specified during the early declaration of results, three policy areas where his party could coalesce around: enterprise, EU relations and housing. It is anticipated that Ireland might see a new Taoiseach and government when Dáil returns post-Christmas, on 22 January. 

What next for Ireland and the EU?
All three major parties are generally pro-Europe with varying degrees. Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have positive sentiments towards Europe, but they support Ireland’s neutrality in defence. Fine Gael is affiliated with EPP, while Fianna Fail is affiliated with Renew Europe. Although Sinn Fein is affiliated with The Left, it is more critical of the current EU structures and has been calling for reforms. 

For Ireland-EU relations, the stable coalition is likely to maintain a pro-European stance, which has been a hallmark of Irish governance.  

About the author
Nupur Priya is a Postgraduate student at the Department of Politics and International Studies, Pondicherry University.

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