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CWA # 1573, 25 January 2025
Global Politics Explainer
Who is Nicolás Maduro? And why is there a controversy over his third term?

  Vaneeta

On 10 January, Nicolás Maduro took oath for the third time as president of Venezuela after a rigged election in July 2024. In his oath-taking ceremony, he said, “This is a great victory for Venezuelan democracy,” which is quite the opposite of what the opposition and people believe. On 28 July, Maduro was declared the presidential election winner by the government-controlled electoral commission, the National Electoral Council (CNE). However, unlike previous elections, they failed to provide detailed vote counts, and violence and protests erupted in the country.

Who is Nicolás Maduro? 
Nicolás Maduro is a leftist politician born in 1962 in a working-class Roman Catholic family.  He was a bus driver by profession and later became a union leader. However, his socialist link goes way back to when he was a student in Cuba and was a member of the Socialist League. In 1990, Maduro joined MBR-200, the civilian wing of Chávez's insurrectional military movement. 

Maduro's political career started in 2000 when he was elected to Venezuela’s national assembly.  He later served as a foreign minister and vice president in Hugo Chávez's government. Nicolás Maduro has been part of the Chávista political movement since the beginning; in 2013, Hugo Chavez died of cancer, and Nicolas Maduro became the president as Chávez's successor.

How did Maduro became Venezuela’s strong man? What is Venezuela’s political background?
Venezuela was a Spanish colony, with periods of democracy, authoritarianism, and military rule. After independence in 1821, political instability existed throughout the 19th and 20th centuries. 

In 1958, Venezuela became a democracy with the Punto Fijo Pact, in which major political parties agreed to have democratic governance. A significant shift happened in 1998 when Hugo Chávez became president with the Bolivarian revolution to establish the "Fifth Republic.” Chávez's regime was part of the pink tide in Latin America, which was the leftist government coming into power. He emphasised a socialist agenda, wealth redistribution, populist policies, extensive constitutional reforms, and firm anti-American foreign policy. However, it also divided the society between the middle class, his supporters, and the elite, his detractors.

When Nicolás Maduro succeeded Hugo Chávez, the Venezuelan economy was heavily depended on oil and had a polarised society. Its economy plunged under his leadership when oil prices declined, and a combination of mismanagement, corruption and international sanctions brought economic crisis. Hyperinflation, food and medicine shortages, and mass emigration followed the financial crisis. Maduro has failed to carry the legacy of his predecessor, a charismatic and loved leader by the masses. 

Who is the opposition in Venezuela?   
The Venezuelan opposition include parties and leaders who have opposed Chávez and Nicolás Maduro. 

For the 2024 presidential election, the opposition united to run for election. María Corina Machado became the presidential candidate of the united opposition, called the Unitary Platform. However, in June 2023, she was banned from holding office for accusations of fraud and tax violations. The Unitary Platform announced a new candidate, Edmundo González Urrutia who is a former diplomat. He is described as a centrist who has supported talks with Maduro to find a solution. He even served as an Ambassador under Chavez's government until 2002. He gave hope to people during the election campaign; after the July election, he was seen as the rightful winner. The US, EU, Canada, Peru, Argentina, Ecuador, Panama and many more recognised him as president-elect. Following an arrest warrant, he was given asylum in Spain on 7 September. Since then, he has been living in exile.       

Today, María Corina Machado is seen as the leader of the opposition. Despite not being the presidential candidate, she has led the movement and is seen as a symbol of hope, courage and perseverance for millions of Venezuelans. 

What next for Maduro?
Maduro began his third term on 10 January after six months of election dispute. He said in an inauguration speech, “May this new presidential term be a period of peace, of prosperity, of equality and the new democracy," he also added that there would be a commission for constitutional reform. According to the government, around 2,000 invitees from 125 countries attended the inauguration. The most important ones were Cuba's President Miguel Diaz-Canel, Nicaragua's President Daniel Ortega, and Vyacheslav Volodin, speaker of Russia's lower house of parliament. 

His third term is less likely be smooth; multiple hurdles await in the six-year turnover.  The first economic troubles amid increased sanctions. The US put new sanctions on eight Venezuelan officials and announced a bounty of $ 25 million for the arrest of Nicolás Maduro. Later, the EU, Canada, and the UK followed the US and imposed new sanctions on 15 officials. 

The second is the worsening human rights crisis. UN reported on 9 January that 16 political leaders and human rights activists were arrested before the ceremony. Protesters have been arrested and put on criminal charges. Also, recently, foreigners have been captured and accused of being mercenaries. It is believed that these foreign nationals will be used as bargaining power later amid strained relations with the international community. The third is the worsening migration crisis. Around 8 million Venezuelans have left the country since Maduro took over office a decade ago. The neighbouring countries hosting these migrants, like Colombia, Argentina, and Brazil, are struggling, and it's putting strain on the political and economic conditions of the hosts. 

Finally, Edmundo González Urrutia, who is in exile, has promised to return to the country. Even if González formed a government in exile, it would not be able to have power within Venezuelan territory. 

What happens next in Venezuela will impact the overall region. Countries like China, Russia, and Cuba have supported Maduro, and it has been debated that Chinese influence has increased in the region, so China's role in Latin American internal politics will be something to see in 2025 with Donald Trump becoming the US President.

About the author
Vaneetta is a Postgraduate Student at Centre for South Asian Studies, Pondicherry University.

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