Global Politics Explainer

CWA # 1786
Global Politics Explainer
Bhutan's Ageing Crisis: What do the numbers say about the demographic shift? 
Fewer births, Smaller families and Out-migration

Astha Panda
10 August 2025
Photo Source: Google Maps

What happened?
On 26 June 2025, Prime Minister Tshering Tobgay addressed the National Assembly, highlighting that the movement towards an ageing society in Bhutan is a sign of progress owing to the increase in life expectancy, now more than 72 years. This serves as a warning towards future challenges as traditional care by families weakens, and the social infrastructure lags behind.

On 1 July 2025, the National Statistics Bureau stated that persons aged 60 and above are about 9.5 per cent of Bhutan's population. Dorji Wangmo and other MPs strongly urged faster action on the National Policy for Senior Citizens, emphasizing the need for better healthcare and social support for our ageing population. The government reiterated that the concern of the aged population was a prime concern; thus, numerous efforts are underway, including the Goensho Tshmangkhang care facility and the Royal Kidu welfare programme for the benefit of older people.

In early August 2025, a new budget was allocated under the 13th Five-Year Plan; a whopping Nu 2 billion was set aside to boost social protection for our seniors, with a strong emphasis on improving healthcare access, providing financial assistance, and offering transport subsidies. Community and religious organizations, such as those in Lingmukha Gewog, have stepped up their support for retired monks and isolated elders, showcasing a collective effort to care for those in need.

What is the state of demography in Bhutan?
Bhutan is experiencing a significant shift in its population dynamics. The rates of fertility and birth have dipped below what's needed to maintain the population, while the number of older adults is on the rise. Many young people are moving to cities or even abroad, leaving behind rural areas that are increasingly populated by older individuals who often lack support networks for caregiving. The elderly population is expected to grow from about 43,000 in 2017 to nearly 119,000 in 2047. 

If these trends continue, by 2047, Bhutan will become an aged society, which could put a strain on its small workforce and the vibrancy of its communities. Nine per cent of Bhutan's population is aged 60 and above, a figure projected to nearly double to 19.7 per cent by 2047. An older demography is slowly replacing the youthful image that Bhutan once had.

Why is Bhutan ageing so fast?
Several factors are coming together to speed up Bhutan's ageing process. With more access to education, particularly for women, and better healthcare, people are living longer. But this progress has also led to fewer births and smaller families. At the same time, young people are chasing economic opportunities, resulting in a significant outflow of talent both within the country and abroad. As these younger generations leave Bhutan, the older population is often left behind without adequate state support. Bhutan's median age is now 30.5, a steep increase from 22 in 2005, showing rapid demographic ageing. Additionally, cultural changes, urban growth, and evolving family dynamics have further eroded traditional caregiving practices, highlighting the gaps in the government's long-term welfare strategies.

Is ageing the only social issue?
Ageing is woven into a larger social transformation. Youth unemployment continues to be a major issue, contributing to ongoing migration patterns. The youth unemployment rate is notably high, sitting at 17.3 per cent in Q2 2025. This highlights the ongoing struggles faced by young job seekers, particularly in urban settings. Meanwhile, fertility rates are on the decline, which adds to demographic pressures. In Bhutan, the total fertility rate for 2025 is projected to be 1.81 children per woman, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1. Mental health challenges, especially among isolated elderly individuals, often go unreported and are not adequately addressed. The burden of care also reveals significant gender imbalances, with women bearing the brunt of elder support responsibilities. Furthermore, rural depopulation is weakening traditional community structures and local governance. All these factors together illustrate that ageing is part of a broader shift in Bhutan's socio-economic landscape.

What do ageing and outmigration mean for Bhutan's Gross National Happiness (GNH)?
Bhutan's renowned approach to Gross National Happiness (GNH) is starting to feel the pressure from its changing demographics. As communities grow older and more fragmented, the GNH pillar of community vitality is beginning to weaken. It's becoming increasingly difficult to nurture spiritual fulfilment, which is such a vital part of Bhutan's identity, in environments where social isolation is on the rise. The emotional bonds between generations are fading, and traditional values are facing challenges from modern economic demands. Additionally, the ecological stewardship that rural populations have maintained for so long could be at risk if depopulation trends continue. Without some thoughtful reforms, like incorporating ageing indicators, developing care infrastructure, and creating strategies to keep young people engaged, GNH might be just a symbolic measure, disconnected from the real experiences of life in Bhutan.

References
"Bhutan prepares for an aging society," Asia News Network, 26 Jun 2025
https://asianews.network/bhutan-prepares-for-an-aging-society/ 

"Bhutan's fertility rate: A future with more elderly and lesser working-age people," The Bhutanese, 11 Jul 2025.
https://thebhutanese.bt/bhutans-fertility-rate-a-future-with-more-elderly-and-lesser-working-age-people/ 

"Is Bhutan facing an existential crisis?" Khabarhub, 20 July 2025.
https://english.khabarhub.com/2025/20/485694/ 

"Bhutan prepares for aging society," Kuensel Online, 25 Jun 2025.
https://kuenselonline.com/news/bhutan-prepares-for-aging-society 

"Ageing challenge demands real and urgent action," Kuensel Online, 21 Jul 2025.
https://kuenselonline.com/news/ageing-challenge-demands-real-and-urgent-action 

About the author
Astha Panda is a postgraduate student at the Centre for South Asian Studies, Pondicherry University.


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